American Demographics February 2020

FEBRUARY 2020

Boom Times for the Elderly Get ready for the decade of caregiving The Great Divide: Immigration Americans split on importance of new arrivals Travel Riding High on the Bucket List 45-54 age group are biggest spenders

Surprising Population Trends 2019 estimates hint at 2020 Census findings Walking Is In, Again The automobile may have finally met its match On the Bookshelf New books and films are putting population trends into focus

WELCOME TO THE WORLD OF LABOR SHORTAGES

“I was thinking brown slacks and a beige top.

Or do you think I’ll look too much like UPS?”

IN THIS ISSUE OF

FEBRUARY 2020

PUBLISHER Phillip Russo

EDITORIAL STAFF

4 American Demographics is Back!

Brad Edmondson Cheryl Russell

5 Boom Times for the Elderly

George Puro Dane Twining

6 The Great Divide: Immigration 7 Travel Riding High on the Bucket List 8 Welcome to the World of Labor Shortages 12 Surprising Population Trends

Tom Prendergast

CREATIVE DIRECTOR Melissa Subatch

American Demographics and americandemographics.com

14 W alking Is In, Again

are owned by the Private Label Manufacturers

15 This Month’s Bookshelf

and licensed for publication by Kent Media, 240 Central

New books and films are putting population trends into focus

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FEBRUARY 2020

Boom Times for the Elderly Get ready for the decade of caregiving The Great Divide: Immigration Americans split on importance of new arrivals

Surprising Population Trends 2019 estimates hint at 2020 Census findings

Travel Riding High on the Bucket List 45-54 age group are biggest spenders

Walking Is In, Again The automobile may have finally met its match On the Bookshelf New books and films are putting population trends into focus

WELCOME TO THE WORLD OF LABOR SHORTAGES

American Demographics is Back!

elcome again to American Demographics.

In this month’s issue, we turn our attention to one of the most vexing issues facing the economy: employment and labor shortages. Editor and writer Brad Edmondson analyzes the factors impacting the US and the role of immigration policy in steering a sound course.

This month’s issue also looks at the next act in the ongoing drama of aging and foresees a big expansion of elder care. Author Cheryl Russell calls it the “decade of caregiving.” Meanwhile, columnist George Puro finds demographic insight in this year’s Academy Awards nomination of “Marriage Story.”

Since American Demographics’ rebirth last year, the magazine has proven how important it is to understand the basic patterns of our society. Our staff of editors, reporters and experts pore through the dense governmental and academic publications in demographics, geology, gerontology, sociology and other fields to bring you insight into the diverse world around us.

American Demographics is back and better than ever.

to subscribe, visit: www.americandemographics.com

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AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I FEBRUARY 2020

By Cheryl Russell

Boom Times for the Elderly Get ready for the decade of caregiving

f you want to know what the 2020s has in store, take a look at the demographics—specifically the aging of the large baby-boom generation.

The 2020s will be the first “Decade of Caregiving”—only the first, mind you. The need for caregiving will become even more intense in the 2030s.

Already, an enormous 40 million Americans provide unpaid eldercare to family or friends aged 65-plus. That’s 16 percent of the population aged 15 or older, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report Unpaid Eldercare in the United States. On an average day, the millions who provide unpaid care to the nation’s elderly outnumber those buying gasoline, visiting a bank, going to the doctor, or attending a movie.

And it’s only just begun.

The oldest members of the baby-boom generation turn 74 this year. Few are in need of caretaking—yet. Right now, boomers are much more likely to provide eldercare than to receive it.

That’s because the great majority (87 percent) of eldercare recipients are aged 75 or older, and the 55-to-64 age group is the one most likely to provide care.

Boomers are about to flood the age groups in which caretaking is increasingly required. During the next two decades, the 75-plus population will nearly double—expanding from 23 million in 2020 to 45 million in 2040 as boomers age. The number of unpaid eldercare providers will need to expand accordingly. The burden of this caretaking will fall mostly on the children of boomers—the millennial generation.

To get an idea of what we will need tomorrow, let’s take a look at the characteristics of the 40 million eldercare providers of today. Every age group contributes to the task of eldercare. Even

among 15-to-24-year-olds, 10 percent provide care—most of them looking after a grandparent, according to the report. Those most likely to provide care are the middle aged. More than one in five people aged 45 to 54 and one in four of those aged 55 to 64 are eldercare providers.

Millennials should expect eldercare demands on their time to peak as they hit their late forties, and those demands will remain elevated for years to come.

Interestingly, women are only slightly more likely than men to provide unpaid eldercare— an average of 17 percent of women in 2017-18 versus 13 percent of men. Who receives care?

Most likely, the parent of the provider. Among all eldercare providers, 43 percent are looking after a parent and another 15 percent are caring for a grandparent. Providing eldercare to a friend is not uncommon either, with 16 percent of eldercare providers doing so.

Caregiving is a commitment, not only in hours but also in years. Most caregivers (63 percent) provide eldercare at least once a week, and 21 percent provide care daily. Fully 76 percent of eldercare providers have been caregivers for more than one year. One-third have been providing care for five or more years.

On an average day, 26 percent of eldercare providers are on duty. Those providing care devote 3.37 hours to their tasks. What are the tasks?

The largest single caregiving activity, accounting for a substantial 35 percent of the time devoted to care, is what the Bureau of Labor Statistics classifies as leisure—sitting and talking, watching television, and participating in other social activities with the recipient. So, a lot of the work of eldercare is simply providing companionship. That doesn’t sound so bad does it, Millennials?

PERCENT OF PEOPLE AGED 15 OR OLDER WHO PROVIDE UNPAID ELDERCARE, AVERAGE FOR 2017-18 Aged 15 to 24: 10% Aged 25 to 34: 9% Aged 35 to 44: 11% Aged 45 to 54: 21% Aged 55 to 64: 24% Aged 65-plus: 18% Total 15-plus:

16%

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

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The Great Divide: Immigration Americans split on importance of new arrivals mmigrants—are they good or bad for America?

This question has been a hot topic many times in the history of the nation. This is one of those times. According to a 2019 American Values Survey from the Public Religion Research Institute, the public identifies immigration as one of the five most critical issues facing the United States today.

Immigration is a hot topic because it divides us. It divides us despite the fact that the great majority of the population views immigrants positively. Fully 85 percent of Americans think immigrants are hardworking, according to the PRRI survey, and 81 percent think immigrants have strong family values. But most (56 percent) also favor more restrictive immigration policies. When asked whether immigrants “threaten traditional American customs and values,” a substantial 39 percent says yes. This figure is a bit higher than the 36 percent who felt this way in 2015. Fear of immigrants is rising, but so is appreciation for their contributions to our society.

The share of the public that believes immigrants strengthen rather than threaten America grew from 51 to 59 percent between 2015 and 2019. No wonder the title of PRRI’s 2019 American Values Survey report is Fractured Nation. Americans are increasingly polarized.

In every region of the country, most residents believe immigrants strengthen rather than threaten American society.

But in every region as well, a substantial share feels otherwise. Those who live in the West are most likely to say immigrants strengthen America, with 65 percent feeling this way. Only 33 percent of Western residents say immigrants threaten American customs and values. Perhaps the public

is most positive about immigrants in the West because the West is the region where the foreign-born account for the largest share of the population. Nearly one in five residents of the West (19.5 percent) is foreign-born, according to the 2018 American Community Survey. The Northeast is in second place, with 16.8 percent of its population born outside the United States. In the South, the figure is 12.1 percent, and in the Midwest just 7.4 percent. The Midwest, with the fewest immigrants, is also the region where residents are most likely to say immigrants threaten the country. Among Midwestern residents, 43 percent feel threatened.

This same pattern occurs at the state level as well. California is the state with the largest share of immigrants in its population—26.9 percent of California residents are foreign-born, according to the 2014-18 American Community Survey. California is also one of the states in which the public is most likely to say immigrants strengthen America—58 percent of California residents feel this way, according to PRRI. At the other extreme, West Virginia is the state with the smallest share of immigrants in its population—just 1.6 percent of its population is foreign-born. West Virginia is also the state in which residents are least likely to think immigrants strengthen America—only 35 percent feel that way.

The regions and states with the most immigrants are the most welcoming. The regions and states with the fewest immigrants are the least welcoming. Perhaps immigrants choose to settle in places where they feel welcome. Or perhaps the more diversity we experience, the more diversity we embrace.

ATTITUDES TOWARD IMMIGRATION IN STATES WITH THE LARGEST AND SMALLEST SHARES OF IMMIGRANTS IMMIGRANT SHARE OF POPULATION

PERCENT OF RESIDENTS WHO SAY IMMIGRANTS STRENGTHEN AMERICA

California, the state with the largest share of immigrants

26.9%

58%

West Virginia, the state with the smallest share of immigrants

1.6%

35%

Source: US Census Bureau, 2014-18 American Community Survey; and PRRI, 2015 American Values Study

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AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I FEBRUARY 2020

Travel Riding High on the Bucket List

45-54 age group are biggest spenders hat’s number-one on the American bucket list? Travel, according to survey results.

Fully 77 percent of the public has travel destinations on their bucket list.

That fact, combined with the demographics, explain why travel spending is climbing.

The average household devoted more than $2,000 to travel in 2018, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey—the first time the figure has topped $2,000.

It has taken years for travel spending to recover from the Great Recession. Average household spending on travel fell 14 percent between 2006 and 2010, after adjusting for inflation. Some travel items experienced even steeper declines. Spending on ship fares fell 34 percent during those years.

Spending on recreational expenses on trips fell 24 percent. But that’s old news. Travel spending has been on the road to recovery for almost a decade. Between 2010 and 2018, average household spending on travel grew 33 percent.

Travel is not a specific category in the Consumer Expenditure Survey. American Demographics created the category for this analysis. Travel spending is the sum of more than a dozen individual items in the survey, all of which are expenses incurred on out-oftown trips. Travel items include lodging on trips, airline fares, restaurant meals on trips, recreational expenses on trips, gasoline and motor oil on trips, and so on. Luggage is one of the items, and so are bus and train fares.

The single biggest travel expense is lodging, which accounted for 26 percent of trav-

el spending in 2018. Number two is airline fares at 25 percent. Restaurant meals are another 17 percent. Those are the big three expenses, accounting for about two-thirds of household spending on travel. Everything else battles it out for the remaining third.

It has taken years for travel spending to recover from the Great Recession.

Now for the demographics. The biggest spenders on travel are households headed by 45-to-54-year-olds. This makes sense since these are the peak-earning (and spending) years. Not far behind in their devotion to travel are households headed by 65-to-74-year-olds. Many are newly retired, and travel is definitely on their bucket list.

According to a 2018 Transamerica survey, travel is the most frequently cited retirement dream. Fully 67 percent of people who are still working say they dream of spending their retirement traveling.

Here’s the good news for the travel industry.

Millennials, now the largest generation, are about to fill the 45-to-54 age group (the oldest turn 43 this year). At the same time, the baby-boom generation—second only to millennials in size—has entirely filled the 65-to74 age group. As millions of millennials and boomers strive to make their dreams come true, expect to see a lot of travel destinations checked off those bucket lists.

HOUSEHOLDERS AGED 45 TO 54 SPEND THE MOST ON TRAVEL (indexed average annual household spending on travel by age of householder, 2018, 100 = average)

Under age 25: 36 Aged 25 to 34: 81 Aged 35 to 44: 103 Aged 45 to 54: 132 Aged 55 to 64: 110 Aged 65 to 74: 117 Aged 75-plus: 66

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I FEBRUARY 2020

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BY BRA D E DMO NDSON

Welcome to the World of

LABOR SHORTAGES Finally, there’s good news for working people: Jobs are on sale.

Or, as a labor economist might put it, the number of job openings in the United States exceeds the number of people who are looking for work. The switch happened in February 2018. The Department of Labor had been measuring job openings for 17 years, and it had never happened before.

But now the condition has persisted for two years, and signs are increasing that serious labor shortages could be the new normal.

Ten years ago, at the official end of the Great Recession, 14.6 million people were chasing just 2.3 million job openings. The economic recovery that followed was weak. Lower-income Americans searched for good jobs with little success for years after the recession officially ended in July 2009. Many experts said that low-level jobs probably wouldn’t ever pay well again. They predicted that machines would continue gobbling up millions of positions that don’t require specialized skills.

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AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I FEBRUARY 2020

That isn’t exactly what happened. The machines didn’t show up as fast as the experts predicted, and the gap between applicants and job openings kept narrowing until it reversed. At the end of November 2019, 6.8 million job openings were listed, and only 5.9 million Americans reported that they had looked for work that month without finding it, making them officially “unemployed.”

Labor shortages are not new—at least, not at the top of the job market. Employers have been complaining for years about how hard it is to find computer programmers and mechanics. But now, restaurants, farms, trucking and delivery firms, and other places where jobs don’t require a lot of training are also having trouble finding qualified people.

This might seem like a high-quality problem that the market will fix. In the short run, wages should rise, luring discouraged adults back into the labor force.

And experts are still promising that driverless trucks and other forms of artificial intelligence will eventually displace millions of workers. But so far, neither of these trends has been strong enough to keep worker shortages from getting worse. The number of unfilled truck driver jobs reached 60,800 in 2018, and the American Trucking Association says the shortage could double over the next decade. The number of unfilled construction jobs rose from an average of 197,000 a month in 2016 to 354,000 during the first nine months of 2019.

Labor shortages are so widespread now that they are starting to affect economic growth. Average monthly job growth slowed from 233,000 in 2018 to 167,000 during the first nine months of 2019, and a big reason for the slowdown is that businesses can’t find employees. “Small businesses are continuing to hire at record levels, but they would be doing even more if they could find qualified workers,” said Juanita Duggen, President and CEO of the National Federation of Independent Businesses. “This has been the biggest issue for small businesses for months.”

Businesses are coping with the new reality by broadening their hiring standards and raising their pay.

Both moves are good news for workers, but in the long run they won’t be enough. Machines aren’t going to replace everybody. The best way to fix chronic worker shortages is to fix immigration.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates that 95.7 million Americans aged 16 and older were not officially employed in 2018. That’s a big number— more than one-third of all adults—but it includes 44

million retirees receiving Social Security retirement benefits, 20 million college students, and 11 million parents who choose to stay at home with their children. The share of stay-at-home parents hasn’t fluctuated much over the last 25 years, either. It was 18 percent in 2018, and 17 percent in 1989.

The other big reason adults don’t have paying jobs is disability, which is where the statistics get a little messy. Disability is measured by two different Federal agencies in two different ways. More than 30 million adults aged 16 and older had some kind of disability in 2018, according to the Labor Department’s Current Population Survey. About 15 million disabled adults are aged 16 to 64. Thirty percent of them are employed, compared with 74 percent of non-disabled adults in this age group. The 2018 survey found that 400,000 disabled adults aged 16 to 64 are actively looking for work. The unemployment rate for disabled adults aged 16 to 64 was 8.7 percent, which was more than double the non-disabled rate of 3.6 percent.

In the Census Bureau’s 2014 Survey of income and Program Participation, which uses a broader definition of disability, 27 million adults aged 25 to 54 reported that they are affected in some way, and 8.9 million of them reported a disability serious enough to require daily assistance. Although the two surveys don’t agree, both of them indicate that there is a lot of opportunity to hire disabled people.

“

The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that 95.7 million Americans aged 16 and older were not officially employed in 2018.

”

Disabled working-age adults are a diverse group. The key to hiring them successfully, according to human resources experts, is to redefine how employees should look and behave. Millions of job seekers think, communicate, and experience the world differently than folks who are “neurotypical,” writes Denise Brodey, a correspondent for Forbes. “We’re different and that makes people uncomfortable at first,” she says. “For a job candidate who has ADHD, dyslexia, sensory dysfunction, depression, anxiety, or a host AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I FEBRUARY 2020

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indicating that they had a prior criminal conviction.

New “ban the box” laws try to end this kind of discrimination. Some laws forbid a company from asking if the candidate was ever sentenced for a crime until a specific time in the hiring process, such as during an interview or after a conditional offer of employment.

of other issues, our differences are our strengths.

In the corporate world, that idea isn’t yet widely understood.”

“

According to the BLS’s 2018 survey, 5.5 million adults who aren’t working say they want a job, although 60 percent of this group (3.3 million) did not look for a job in the last year.

”

According to the BLS’s 2018 survey, 5.5 million adults who aren’t working say they want a job, although 60 percent of this group (3.3 million) did not look for a job in the last year. Among the 2.2 million who did look for a job, about 1.5 million are “marginally attached” to the labor force, which means they would be available to work now if it weren’t for some problem. Among the marginally attached, 38 percent say they are kept from work by child care, transportation, or some other condition; 30 percent are simply discouraged; and roughly equal shares are blocked by illness, family duties, and school schedules.

Employers could probably lure a big chunk of these 5.5 million potential workers back into the labor force simply by raising wages. The annual growth rate for wages bottomed out at 1.5 percent in October 2012, and it didn’t rise very much until late 2017. In November 2019, the annual growth rate stood at just 3 percent.

The last time unemployment was very low, in the late 1990s, wages were growing about 5 percent per year.

Employers can also look in different places. The unemployment rate among former prison inmates is almost five times the national average, according to an analysis of 2008 data by the Prison Policy Initiative (PPI). This is another big group. About 30 percent of US adults have been arrested on a felony charge at some point in their lives, according to the FBI. About 6.7 million are currently incarcerated. The PPI estimates that every month, 600,000 people who have been released from jail are looking for work.

Surveys have found that employers are only half as likely to call an applicant who checks the box

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AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I FEBRUARY 2020

Ban the box laws that apply to private employers have passed in California, Illinois, New Jersey, ten other states, and many localities. The laws fight discrimination while also boosting applicant pools, and studies show that employers who make simple procedural changes can substantially reduce their risk. In Maryland, the Johns Hopkins Health System banned the box in 1999. They don’t run background checks until a conditional offer of employment is made. If the prospective employee has a record, the hospital’s human resources department reviews their application and considers mitigating factors, such as how long ago the offense took place. In a five-year study of 500 ex-offender employees, Johns Hopkins’ hospital found that ex-offenders were more likely than non-offenders to stay in their jobs for more than three years.

Small, innovative programs across the country are also training inmates and placing them in good jobs, dramatically increasing an ex-offender’s chances of successful re-entry. The Washington State Correctional Facility for Women works with three trade unions to train inmates and place them in skilled construction jobs upon release. In Chicago, the transit workers union trains inmates for service and repair jobs. Nonprofit groups in Oakland, Los Angeles, New York, and many other cities are showing similar results. Almost all these programs are looking for partners in the private sector.

Greyston Bakery of Yonkers, New York goes even further. Anyone who shows up at their door and says they want to work will get a job with no questions asked— no resumes, no interviews, no background checks.

Greyston is a nonprofit, and their turnover rate for new hires is high, but the model is working. They make over 10 million pounds of baked goods every year, and since 1982, they claim to have turned 3,500 hard-core unemployed people into full-time workers.

Groups like Greyston insist that there is a job for every person who is disabled, formerly incarcerated, marginally attached, or seriously discouraged. But even if their dreams come true, it probably won’t fix America’s big structural problem. Our population is aging.

This is a huge, long-term trend, and its message is clear. We need to admit and hire more immigrants.

Since 2008, the number of births in the US has been declining, even as the economy has improved. This is a big change. In previous years, the number of births has risen and fallen with the economy. The number of births is also declining in Western Europe and Japan. Demographers are still arguing over why the change happened, but there’s no arguing with the numbers.

An aging population means an aging work force.

The share of workers who are aged 55 and older is projected to increase from 22 percent in 2015 to 27 percent in 2060, according to the BLS. Warning signs are already flashing. The average age of construction equipment operators and highway maintenance workers is 46. And there aren’t nearly enough young people in the pipeline for skilled trade jobs, because young people are training for high-tech jobs instead.

An aging population also means more retirees. The share of US adults who are in the labor force peaked in 2000 at 67 percent. The oldest members of the huge baby-boom generation reached the age of 62 and began collecting Social Security benefits in 2008. In 2020, the youngest baby boomers will be 56. Labor force participation declined to 63 percent in 2015, and it is projected to decline further to 57 percent in 2060.

When births do not replace deaths, there is only one other way for a country’s population to grow. Immigration already accounts for 48 percent of population growth in the United States, and the Census Bureau projects that it will account for 70 percent of growth by 2040. The shift is well underway. Foreign-born Americans already account for 27 percent of college-educated workers in science and engineering jobs. Immigrants with 12 years of education or less hold one-third of all agricultural jobs, and 20 percent in construction.

Opponents of immigration claim that the foreign-born take away jobs and commit violent crimes. The facts don’t support those charges.

Many studies have found that immigrants are less likely than native-born Americans to commit violent crimes. And foreign scientists who used H-1B Visas to work in the US between 1994 and 2001 did lower the wages of computer scientists slightly, according to University of Michigan economists John Bound and Nicolas Morales. But they also made strong contributions to innovation and productivity, which created jobs and raised wages in many other fields.

The long-term effects of cutting off immigration would be serious and far-reaching. Farmers are planting fewer fruits and vegetables that require lots of workers to pick and cut, such as tomatoes, asparagus, and broccoli. Meat and dairy producers are also under increasing pressure. As agricultural labor shortages continue, more basic food items are imported.

The economic threat could be even more serious.

Workers support retirees with their payments to Social Security’s FICA account. The number of Americans aged 65 and older who are eligible for Social Security and Medicare benefits, under current rules, will more than double between 2000 and 2040.

Without a robust supply of workers to pay into FICA, our government could default on promises made to millions of its citizens. The data show, once again, that America’s strength comes from diversity.

“

An aging population means an aging work force. The share of workers who are aged 55 and older is projected to increase from 22 percent in 2015 to 27 percent in 2060.

”

It’s clear that the US government needs to issue more work permits to immigrants at both ends of the income scale. But at the moment, we’re headed hard in the other direction, for all the wrong reasons. Legal immigration plunged 70 percent last year to just 200,000, which is not nearly enough to fill the jobs available. Labor markets felt the difference immediately. Farmers can’t get enough H-2A visas for foreign guest workers. The undocumented work force has shrunk. Housing and construction contracts are going unfilled, and crops are rotting.

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I FEBRUARY 2020

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Surprising Population Trends 2019 estimates hint at 2020 Census findings he 2019 population estimates are in our hands. The latest numbers don’t quite complete the puzzle of the past decade. One piece is missing—the April 1, 2020 census numbers, which will be released later this year. But with only that one piece missing, we can announce with some confidence the biggest population surprises of the last decade…

In five of the past seven decades, the District of Columbia has been one of the five slowestgrowing states.

Slowest population growth in U.S. history: For two centuries, the American population grew like gangbusters, with double digit growth in every decade since the nation’s founding—until the 1930s. Between 1930 and 1940, the population grew by a scant 7.3 percent—the slowest 10-year growth ever recorded, as the Great Depression reduced gains from both fertility and immigration. It looks like the 2010s will set a new record for slow growth—and for the same reasons. When the 2020 census numbers are in, the 2010s may go down in US history as the decade with the slowest population growth. Between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2019, the population grew by just 6.3 percent.

The fastest-growing “state” was the District of Columbia: To call this unusual is an understatement. It is unprecedented. In none of the previous seven decades has the District of Columbia ranked even among the top 25 states in population growth.

In five of the past seven decades, the District of Columbia has been one of the five slowest-growing states. In fact, it lost population in each decade from the 1950s to the 1990s. The losses stopped in the 2000s, when D.C. grew 5.2 percent and ranked 35th in growth among the states. Then things really changed.

From April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2019, the population of D.C. grew 17.3 percent—faster than any of the 50 states. Behind the rise is the big city resurgence of the 2010s, with the nation’s largest metropolitan areas growing faster than smaller metros or nonmetropolitan areas.

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Nevada fell off the top-five list. In every decade since the 1950s, Nevada has been one of the five fastest-growing states. But it may not make the top-five list in the 2010s. Let’s review the trend. In the 1950s, Florida was the fastest-growing state and Nevada was number two. In the 1960s, Nevada overtook Florida as the number-one state in growth. It held the number-one spot through the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. Things changed in the 2010s. Between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2019, Nevada’s population grew 14.1 percent, behind Florida, Colorado, Texas, Utah, and the District of Columbia.

At the other extreme, West Virginia experienced a bigger population loss than any other state during the 2010s. This is a familiar position for the struggling state. West Virginia has ranked among the bottom-five states in most of the past seven decades.

In every decade since the 1950s, Nevada has been one of the five fastest-growing states.

FIVE FASTEST-GROWING STATES, APRIL 1, 2010 TO JULY 1, 2019 1

17.3% District of Columbia

2

16% Utah

3

15.3% Texas

4

14.5% Colorado

5

14.2% Florida

FIVE SLOWEST-GROWING STATES, APRIL 1, 2010 TO JULY 1, 2019 47

0.3% Mississippi

48

-0.2% Connecticut

49

-0.3% Vermont

50

-1.2% Illinois

51

-3.3% West Virginia

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I FEBRUARY 2020

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Walking Is In, Again The automobile may have finally met its match alkability is the new buzz word.

The term is being bandied about to identify up and coming cities, thriving neighborhoods, retail hot spots, and investment opportunities. Walkability equals profitability. This isn’t conjecture, but fact. The Center for Real Estate and Urban Analysis at George Washington University has studied the matter and, according to its 2019 analysis of 761 neighborhoods in 30 metropolitan areas, there are profits in walkability for office, retail, and multifamily rental markets. It’s also a good investment for homeowners. The study, titled Foot Traffic Ahead, found market share growth in walkable urbanism for these income properties in all of the 30 largest US metro areas.

Walking is in again, and it’s about time. As the George Washington University study notes, the “trend towards drivable suburban development lasted over 60 years, and only this past real estate cycle has marked the pivotal moment of a gradual shift to walkable urban development.” We have a long way to go, however, before we achieve the walkable neighborhoods that once were the norm. The trend away from walkability has been ongoing since 1946. During the postwar economic boom, cars became affordable for the average family.

The family car, coupled with relatively low-cost suburban developments and subsidized highway construction, allowed millions of households to escape dense urban neighborhoods for spacious suburbs. Driving became a necessity. Walking became uncommon.

Today, whenever we step out our front door, 82 percent of the time we step into an automobile, according to the federal government’s National Household Travel Survey. Only 16 percent of the public walks to any destination on an average

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day. Of the millions of person-trips Americans make daily, just 10 percent are by foot.

Few of us walk anywhere because everything is too far away. The nearest grocery store is a median of 0.88 miles from the home of the average American, according to the USDA’s Economic Research Service. The one-way work commute is 12.2 miles, according to the National Household Travel survey. Schools are too distant for most children to make the journey on foot, which explains why only 10 percent walk or bike to school. Today, in fact, the majority of children (54 percent) ride to school in a private vehicle.

Another problem is that many people have a hard time walking. The inability to walk is one of the most common physical disabilities, according to the National Center for Health Statistics, with 20 percent of people aged 65 or older saying it would be very difficult or impossible for them to walk even a quarter mile.

Sidewalks are another issue. When the National Household Travel Survey asked Americans why they did not walk more, one of the biggest reasons—cited by 20 percent—was a lack of sidewalks. Fully 52 percent of homeowners say there are no sidewalks in their neighborhood, according to the American Housing Survey.

Driving has also become a (bad) habit. Among the 59 percent of households that report never walking or biking to services or amenities, three out of four say there’s no particular reason they don’t walk or bike.

The George Washington University report offers a glimmer of hope. The fact that walkability has become a buzzword, a sought-after neighborhood feature, is a sign of change. “A structural shift back towards walkable urban development is occurring,” concludes the report, but it will take decades to play out.

Astaire and Ginger Rogers, also got a Best Picture nomination, but lost to It Happened One Night, which used a marriage annulment as a plot device so Claudette Colbert could end up with Clark Gable. Since then, movies that have been nominated for or won awards have included The Parent Trap (1961), Divorce American Style (1967), An Unmarried Woman (1978), The Squid and the Whale (2005), Boyhood (2014) and Carol (2015).

meeting with a marriage mediator and their talk of divorce.

This year’s Oscar Best Picture lineup brought a new twist to the divorce story by featuring the latest demographic trend – a bicoastal relationship.

holds onto the hope that he can keepthe family together in New York, as he keeps calling them a “New York family.”

Married people living apart together (LAT) has been an increasingly common living arrangement in America.

According to the Census, that situation has increased by 44% since 2000, with 3.96 million Americans doing so, up from 2.7 million in 2000. When Nicole takes a job in Los Angeles, she is just fulfilling a demographic trend. Charlie

Demographic changes take many forms. For This Month’s Bookshelf, George Puro takes a look at the Academy Awards through the years and the topic of divorce in the US. Marriage Story (2019) Forty years ago, Hollywood honored what had become an important shift in the American family when Kramer vs. Kramer won the Academy Award for Best Picture. At that time, divorce was at an all-time high. The rate of divorce more than doubled from 1960—when it was 9.2 divorces per 1,000 married women 15 years and over—to 1979, when it hit 22.8.

Kramer vs. Kramer not only notched the Best Picture award, it also brought the first ever Oscar statuettes to Dustin Hoffman (Best Actor), Meryl Streep (Best Supporting Actress) and Robert Benton (Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay).

The movies have had a storied fascination with divorce, one that’s been recognized by the Academy over the years. While the divorce rate was pretty low in the 1930s, Norma Shearer still managed to snag the 1930 Best Actress Oscar for The Divorcee, which was also nominated for Best Picture and Best Director. Just four years later, The Gay Divorcee, featuring Fred

Marriage Story, the heart-wrenching drama directed by Noah Baumbach takes the divorce story and adds a geographic element. The movie— which received six Oscar nominations, including Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay and nominations for most of the principal cast members—tells the story of Charlie (Adam Driver), a theater director in New York who lives with his actress wife Nicole (Scarlett Johansson. When she gets an offer to act in a TV pilot and needs to move to L.A., he still believes the move is only temporary, despite their

But alas, Marriage Story is actually a divorce story, and Nicole soon finds an attorney (Laura Dern).

It’s worth noting that making a movie now about divorce is somewhat against divorce trends—in 2018, the divorce rate hit a 40-year low, with 15.7 divorces per 1,000 married women, based on government data compiled by the National Center for Family & Marriage Research (NCFMR) at Bowling Green State University. Still, no matter what the rate, it’s clear that Hollywood will always have a soft spot in its heart for the divorce story.

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I FEBRUARY 2020

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Month by Month at a Glance

AMERICAN DEMOGRAPHICS

Gen Z: Listening to the Footsteps

Welcome to the World of Labor Shortages (February)

(Winter)

Who Are “The Influencers?”

(March)

Meet the Henrys (November)

Census Day and Counting (April)

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