American Demographics September 2019

SEPTEMBER 2019

Is Retirement Obsolete?

It isn’t what it used to be The Baby Bust May Be Permanent Children are harder to find in today’s homes Checking Up on Americans Economic Well-Being How smart are we about money?

The Cost of Prescription Drugs Prescription drug use and spending The lull in the storm Tipping Points The road to a minority majority On the Bookshelf New books and films are putting population trends into focus

LIVING WITH SURGING WATERS

So, heavy rains along the coast with major downpours throughout the day. For those who do not accept climate change, there will be blue skies, plenty of sunshine and only a possibility of a sun shower.

IN THIS ISSUE OF

SEPTEMBER 2019

PUBLISHER Phillip Russo

EDITORIAL STAFF

4 American Demographics is Back!

Brad Edmondson

5 Retirement Isn’t What It Used To Be

George Puro

Cheryl Russell

Dane Twining

6 The Baby Bust May Be Permanent

Tom Prendergast

7 Checking Up on Americans Well-Being 8 Living with Surging Waters

CREATIVE DIRECTOR Melissa Subatch

12 Prescription Drug Use and Spending American Demographics and americandemographics.com

14 T ipping Points on the Road to a Minority Majority

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15 This Month’s Bookshelf New books and films are putting population trends into focus

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SEPTEMBER 2019

Is Retirement Obsolete?

It isn’t what it used to be The Baby Bust May Be Permanent Children are harder to find in today’s homes Checking Up on Americans Economic Well-Being How smart are we about money?

The Cost of Prescription Drugs Prescription drug use and spending The lull in the storm Tipping Points The road to a minority majority On the Bookshelf New books and films are putting population trends into focus

LIVING WITH SURGING WATERS

American Demographics is Back!

elcome to American Demographics. As we prepare our current issue, we are mindful of the heartwarming response that the rebirth of this magazine has drawn. It is clearer than ever before that the most basic of demographics are at work in our social, economic and political environment.

For several years, we heard the phrase “polarization” to describe the problems and lack of solutions facing our society. Now we see exactly what polarization meant: It meant the clash of demographics all around us. The 2020 election may help resolve some of the thunder and lightning we see and hear but it will not change the importance of better recognition and understanding of the forces at work and how they play out.

For more than 25 years, American Demographics was the place to go for information about these trends. With a staff of editors, regular freelancers and expert correspondents, the magazine pored through the dense governmental and academic publications in demographics, geology, gerontology, sociology and other fields to provide insight into the diverse world around us.

American Demographics is back and we thank you for your support and loyalty.

to subscribe, visit: www.americandemographics.com

4

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I SEPTEMBER 2019

By Cheryl Russell

Is Retirement Obsolete?

It Isn’t What It Used to Be o be sure, millions of retirees are out there clamoring

Labor Statistics data. At the time, just 57 percent of 55-to-64-

to move into the latest iteration of Sun City, but there

year-olds were in the labor force. Today, the labor force participa-

would be many millions more if retirement were any-

tion rate of this age group is 65 percent. In 1994, only 17 percent of

thing like it used to be. Face it: The retirement of the

65-to-74-year-olds were working. The figure is 27 percent today.

baby-boom generation has been a disappointment.

The number of retirees per worker in the 55-to-74 age group fell from 1.62 to just 1.04 between 1994 and 2018; when marketing to

So much was expected. Marketers looked forward to decades of

55-to-74-year-olds, it’s now almost a tossup whether the target is

selling to expanding numbers of boomers in their golden years

a retiree or a worker.

with time and money on their hands. But instead of filling casinos, golf courses, and shopping malls in their leisure time, many

In fact, the whole retirement life stage may be disappearing. Not

boomers are still at work. Yes, the number of retirees aged 55 to

only are more people working longer, but many of the retired can-

74 has grown impressively in the past couple of decades, climb-

not afford the Leisure World lifestyle. With defined-benefit pen-

ing from 24 million in 1994 to 37 million in 2018—a 54 percent

sions close to extinction, the well-being of retirees now depends

increase. But if boomers had retired as early as their parents did,

on luck and willpower—the luck to work for an employer who of-

the number of retirees aged 55 to 74 would have grown by a much

fers a defined-contribution retirement plan (only 60 percent of

larger 80 percent during those years.

workers have such luck, according to the National Compensation Survey) and the willpower to save.

The parents of the baby-boom generation set the stage for the outsized expectations for boomers as they aged. It was in 1994,

Among current retirees, 82 percent say they are confident they

a quarter century ago, when the labor force participation rate

will have enough money to live comfortably throughout their re-

of older Americans hit its lowest point, according to Bureau of

tirement years. But only 35 percent are “very confident,” according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute’s 2019 Retirement Confidence Survey. Among workers, a smaller 67 percent are confident and just 23 percent are “very confident.” When asked whether their retirement savings plan is currently on track, only 36 percent of workers report that it is, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Report on the Economic Well-Being of US Households in 2018. A larger 44 percent say their plan is not on track, and 19 percent say they don’t know. Maybe we need to see retirement for what it was—a short-lived life stage that came and went with the post-war industrial boom.

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I SEPTEMBER 2019

5

The Baby Bust May Be Permanent

Only 27% of households include children f you were asked to name the biggest

the fastest-growing expense. Since 1960, the cost of

changes in American society since the

childcare grew by more than 800 percent, after ad-

1950s, this one should be high on the list:

justing for inflation—from about $4,000 to $38,000.

the disappearance of children from the

As women went to work over the past six decades,

nation’s households. Only 27 percent of households

childcare costs grew from negligible to enormous.

in 2018 included children under the age of 18—a record low. Sixty years earlier in 1958, during the birth

So, what’s a parent to do? Call grandma. Grandpar-

years of the baby-boom generation, nearly half of all

ents are the second biggest providers of childcare in

households—49 percent—included children.

the US, according to a National Center for Education Statistics survey of childcare arrangements. Among

Children are harder to find in today’s homes because

parents with preschoolers who use “nonparental care

of the baby bust. Generational priorities and socio-

arrangements” at least once a week, 20 percent de-

logical factors like a wider range of employment op-

pend exclusively on grandparents. Why are grandpar-

portunities for women are contributing factors, but

ents so important? Probably because they provide

one very important reason for the baby bust is almost

their services for free.

certainly the enormous cost of raising children. Many young adults—struggling with student loans, low

Of course, many grandparents are either unable or

wages, and rising rents—simply cannot afford it.

unwilling to care for grandchildren while Mom and Dad are at work. That continues to drive the use of

How much does it cost to raise a child? To be precise,

day care—day care centers are the most common

it costs $233,610 for a middle-income married-cou-

type of childcare service—as well as the cost, and the

ple family to raise one child from birth through age

expense of childrearing overall. Among parents who

17, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

use nonparental care arrangements at least once a

This figure includes the child’s share of the family’s

week, 42 percent use day care centers exclusively.

housing, food, transportation, health care, clothing,

The costs add up. Among parents of preschoolers

and other expenses. Between 1960 and today, most

who pay for childcare, the average out-of-pocket cost

of these costs rose only modestly and some even de-

is $6.93 per hour. At 20 hours of childcare per week,

clined. Housing costs increased 6 percent, after ad-

that’s $7,228 a year. At 40 hours per week, the cost is

justing for inflation. Transportation costs increased 10

nearly $15,000.

percent. Food fell 15 percent and clothing 40 percent.

This helps to explain why the nation’s fertility rate is at

6

The third largest expense of childrearing today is

a record low and why fewer and fewer of the nation’s

childcare (after housing and food). Childcare is also

households include children.

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I SEPTEMBER 2019

Checking Up on Americans Economic Well-Being How Smart Are We About Money?

mericans are in debt big time. According to the

No demographic segment did particularly well on the financial

Federal Reserve Bank of New York, US house-

literacy test, although some did better than others. Men got a

holds owe a record amount of money—nearly $14

higher score than women (3.3 versus 2.7 correct answers). Peo-

trillion—which makes the latest results of the National

ple aged 55 or older scored better (3.5) than 18-to-34-year-olds

Financial Capability Study particularly worrisome. Most of us are

(2.4), those with household incomes of $75,000 or more knew

pretty dumb about money, the results show. And we appear to be

more (3.6) than those with incomes below $25,000 (2.2), and

getting dumber.

college graduates scored higher (3.8) than those with no more than a high school education (2.3).

The National Financial Capability Study is a survey fielded every three years by FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority), a

But here’s the catch. When it comes to money, Americans don’t

not-for-profit organization authorized by Congress to regulate the

know what they don’t know. They believe they are much more

broker-dealer industry. The goal of the survey is to assess the fi-

knowledgeable about financial matters than they really are.

nancial savvy of the population. To make the assessment, the survey includes a financial literacy test. The test consists of five basic

This overconfidence is also measured by the survey, which asks

questions about inflation, interest rates, mortgages, and financial

respondents how financially savvy they think they are on a scale

risk. Only 34 percent of a representative sample of Americans

from 1 (very low) to 7 (very high). Fully 71 percent of respondents

could answer at least four of the five questions correctly in the

gave themselves a score of 5 or higher for their financial acumen.

2018 survey. Not only is this a low score, but it’s even lower than

The survey also asked how much, on a 7-point scale, respondents

it used to be. A larger 37 percent answered at least four ques-

agreed with the statement, “I am good at dealing with day-to-day

tions correctly in 2015, 39 percent did so in 2012, and 42 percent

financial matters.” An even larger 77 percent gave themselves a

in 2009. No wonder the amount of money Americans owe is at an

score of 5 or higher. A third question asked respondents about

all-time high and has increased for 20 straight quarters.

their numeracy skills, with three out of four rating themselves a 5 or higher on the 7-point scale.

You know what comes next. Those clever FINRA analysts examined the financial literacy test scores of respondents who rated themselves highly on these questions. They did not live up to their chest thumping. Among respondents who gave themselves a 7 (the highest rating) for numeracy skills, “only 59% are able to do two simple calculations involving interest rates and inflation,” the FINRA analysts reported, “and only 38% could calculate compound interest in the context of debt.”

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I SEPTEMBER 2019

7

By B ra d Ed m on d son

Living with g n i g r u S Waters As chronic floods approach crisis levels in many US cities, averting disaster won’t be cheap or easy.

Last July, a sudden, intense rainstorm in New York City flooded the Long Island Expressway and paralyzed rush-hour traffic. Cars crept through Brooklyn streets that had turned into shallow rivers. There was nothing to do but wait for the water to recede.

Two years ago, another summer rainstorm in Houston did the same thing on a much larger scale.

Hurricane Harvey dumped 60 inches of rain on the metro area over several days, flooding hundreds of thousands of homes and causing 103 deaths and $125 billion in losses.

Scientists no longer argue about whether or not carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are changing the earth’s climate. They are too busy trying to understand the droughts that trigger western wildfires, the Atlantic and Gulf Coast storms that cause extreme tidal surges, and the tornadoes and “microburst” thundershowers that wash out roads and overwhelm urban drainage systems everywhere else.

8

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I SEPTEMBER 2019

“Climate change, for us, is extreme weather coupled with sea level rise, which is more of a slow progression over time,” says Mark Wilbert, Chief Resilience Officer and Director of Emergency Management for the City of Charleston. “You put the two together and if things don’t work just right, you can have a pretty significant event.”

These problems will persist for decades, even if the world somehow finds a way to quickly cut carbon dioxide emissions to acceptable levels. And the longer we wait to act, the more likely we are to face a world where the weather overwhelms us.

Charleston is built on a tidal plain where most buildings are less than 10 feet above sea level. Officials there are planning for sea levels to rise two to four feet over the next 50 years. But every year, there are fewer places left for the water to go. The population of Charleston County (408,000) has increased 16 percent since 2010, compared with a 6 percent increase in the US as a whole. May-

or John Tecklenburg says that flooding is the city’s number one problem. Number two is traffic jams.

million homes could be chronically flooded by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are not cut.

America’s fastest-growing neighborhoods are concentrated in coastal cities and towns. In 2017, 29 percent of Americans (94.7 million people) lived in counties along the Atlantic and Pacific oceans or the Gulf of Mexico. Between 2000 and 2017, growth in the Atlantic and Pacific counties was near the national average of 15 percent. But along the Gulf of Mexico, where hurricanes are a fact of life, the population rose more than 26 percent.

Global economic losses from floods in 126 coastal cities could rise from $5 billion a year in 2013 to $1 trillion a year in 2050, according to a paper in Nature Climate Change. The authors found that the most vulnerable American cities are Miami, New York, New Orleans, Tampa, and Boston, in that order. They also found that flood damages are dramatically reduced when cities plan for the water before a storm hits.

An online tool called Flood IQ brings the problem into sharp focus. Enter any address in a coastal state and the map will show its likelihood of flooding at mean high tide and during hurricanes, now and 15 years from now. The First Street Foundation, which built the site by combining data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the real-estate site Zillow, estimates that flooding has already depressed real estate values by $15.8 billion along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts to the Mississippi state line. That number will get a lot bigger after they run the data for Louisiana and Texas.

A lot of data and a few big storms have come and gone since 2013, and some US cities are now beginning to act. Charleston is raising the foundations of valuable historic structures, creating flood retention ponds, modernizing storm drains, and assisting homeowners whose properties are in danger. And in Boston, the mayor has committed $350 million a year to an

More than 300,000 homes in the US will be at risk of flooding at least 26 times a year over the next 30 years, according to a May 2018 study by the Union of Concerned Scientists. About one-fifth of those homes are in Florida, and almost as many are in New Jersey. Miami Beach alone stands to lose 12,000 homes; Ocean City, New Jersey may lose 7,200. Another 13,000 homes are at risk in the San Francisco Bay area, as well as 15,000 on Long Island. The study projects that 2.5

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I SEPTEMBER 2019

9

is doomed,” says Hal Wanless, chair of the geology department at the University of Miami.

ambitious data-driven plan that targets high-risk neighborhoods and infrastructure.

In its natural state, the City of Boston was a 789acre peninsula. Its size more than doubled as residents filled in and drained tidal lands adjoining the harbor. Scientists now say that the sea will eventually rise above the level of Boston’s filled-in land.

But the water’s path will be complicated, according to Kirk Bosma, a coastal engineer at the Woods Hole Research Group. “Wind, sea-level rise, rain, and other things all contribute to urban flooding,” he says. “You have to get the storm part right before you can know where the water will go.”

“

Miami is

like a city on stilts whose buildings are elevated just above the water

10

”

Woods Hole was hired by Massachusetts’ Department of Transportation to assess risks to the Big Dig, a $24 billion highway tunnel that runs under downtown Boston. Bosma and his colleagues modeled coastal storms and then ran hundreds of thousands of different scenarios to judge the probability of flooding in specific neighborhoods. Their work is at the heart of the Climate Ready Boston report, released in 2016.

In 2018, two winter storms hit Boston. One of them had a 15-foot storm surge “that proofed the model pretty well,” says Bosma. After that, the State asked Woods Hole to make maps for the entire Massachusetts coastline that will be released this fall. Boston has broken ground on several large projects, redesigning waterfront parks and moving critical infrastructure out of harm’s way.

The Boston and Charleston plans admit that structures in especially hard-hit areas will need to be moved or abandoned, a process that planners call “strategic retreat.” In other cities, the retreat will be much more challenging. “Miami as we know it

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I SEPTEMBER 2019

About 6.2 million people live in greater Miami (Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties), where the population has grown 11 percent since 2010 and where a full-on regional construction boom is ongoing. You can see it at Miami Worldcenter, a $4 billion mixed-use development on 27 acres adjacent to Biscayne Bay. When complete, Worldcenter will include 300,000 square feet of retail, an office tower, two hotels, and four luxury apartment buildings, including one that is 43 stories tall.

The problem is that most of Dade and Broward counties are built on a ridge of porous limestone, with the Everglades to the west and the Atlantic Ocean to the east. This means that rising seas will flood the Miami-Fort Lauderdale corridor from below. Seawalls and pumps won’t be able to stop the water, and people won’t be able to move out of the way.

Miami “is like a city on stilts whose buildings are elevated just above the water,” says Orrin Pilkey, a professor of earth sciences at Duke University. A two-foot rise in sea levels would cripple transportation systems and wipe out the city’s supply of fresh water, he says. Miami’s sea level has risen six inches since 1996. Streets and sidewalks along the beach now flood regularly at high tide.

In July 2019, Florida’s demographers revised the official state population estimate upward to 21,200,796, reflecting stronger-than-expected growth. They now project that the state will add 1.6 million new residents over the next five years. But their projections don’t account for climate change, and the smart money is already starting to hedge its bets.

“In the last two years, a lot of companies have been re-thinking whether or not climate risk is priced into their deals,” says Laura Craft, senior vice president at Heitman, a real estate investment firm with $44 billion invested worldwide. “The industry is beginning to integrate climate risk into the decision-making process.”

Heitman and the Urban Land Institute recently asked leaders in the real estate investment community about their perceptions of climate risk.

Their report, issued in February, explains that insur-

ance companies have not faced the problem yet because their policies are usually one-year contracts, so they offset the cost of a disaster simply by raising their rates. But developers, who often have a five to ten-year “hold period” for their money, must also think about their buyers, who might tie up their money in a property for decades. And in Miami, a two or three-decade investment looks fairly risky. “You can work to mitigate risk, but you usually can’t move the building,” says Craft.

One day Florida’s boom-and-bust economy will go bust again, and if history is a guide, the breaking point this time could be dramatic. A hurricane in September 1926 virtually wiped Miami off the map, triggering a state-wide real estate crash three years before the official start of the Great Depression. In 1992, Hurricane Andrew came ashore about 40 miles south of the Worldcenter site, with winds of 165 miles an hour and a storm surge of 16.9 feet. Worldcenter is perhaps six feet above sea level.

After Andrew, the insurance industry paid $15.5 billion in losses and 13 companies went out of business. The surviving companies began modeling storms based on past weather data, but in a warming climate, weather statistics from the past lose their power to predict the future. Now some companies are attempting to incorporate climate change into their models, as Woods Hole has done.

But this job is much more complex and difficult.

Warren Buffet, whose company Berkshire Hathaway includes large insurance holdings, is thinking things over. “Global warming may be occurring.

Probably is,” he told The Wall Street Journal in July.

“But it hasn’t hurt the reinsurance industry. And people are pricing still as if it won’t, on a one-year basis.” If insurance contracts lasted 30 years, he said, “I’d be crazy not to” include the risks.

Heitman uses a “climate risk and resilience advisory firm” that assigns individual properties numerical scores, from 1 to 100, based on the site’s exposure to hurricanes, floods, sea level rise, earthquakes, and other hazards. “If the risk score comes back above a certain threshold, we’ll continue due diligence to understand the specific risk exposure and what kinds of mitigation strategies are possible,” says Craft. Her team

has completed many deep dives on deals and will take a pass on those that are deemed too risky.

The consultant, Four Twenty Seven, was recently acquired by Moody’s, the huge firm that grades bonds based on their risk level.

Meanwhile, the water keeps rising. A study in June found that faster-than-expected melting of polar ice has increased the probability that sea levels will rise six feet by 2100. If that happens and no mitigation measures are taken, much of South Florida will be inundated and 2.5 million of its residents will be forced to move to other cities, according to Mathew Hauer, a demographer at Florida State University. Nationwide, 6.6 million people could be forced from their homes.

What is required is a new mindset. Business and civic leaders need to admit that water is coming, and that water always wins. Charleston leaders recently tried to shift their thinking by holding a series of community meetings with Dutch engineers and planners. About one-third of the Netherlands is below sea level, and the Dutch have kept their land in productive use for over 800 years The “Dutch Dialogues” started in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, says co-founder Dale Morris of The Water Institute of the Gulf. They have since been held in St. Louis, Los Angeles, Tampa, Charleston, and Norfolk, Virginia. He says their goal is “to give all the cities in a region a common vision.”

“

Global warming . . . hasn’t hurt the reinsurance industry.

And people are pricing still as if it won’t

”

- Warren Buffet

Justin Ehrenwerth, CEO of the Water Institute, says his firm looks for “nature-based solutions” to coastal flooding. This often means channeling flood water into engineered marshes, parks, and other large open spaces so it can soak back into the ground. In other words, the best-case solution for coastal cities often involves clearing out valuable industrial and residential areas, planting them with flood-resistant plants, and then leaving them alone.

This won’t be cheap or easy, and it will cause fundamental changes in urban demographics for decades to come. As Charleston Mayor John Tecklenburg put it: “When the sea level rises four feet, we’ve got to think about how to live with water.”

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I SEPTEMBER 2019

11

Prescription Drug Use and Spending: The Lull in the Storm

Prescription drug use is declining. Out-of-pocket spending on prescription drugs has plunged. Hard to believe, right? Yup, but both statements are true, in spite of skyrocketing costs for healthcare and drugs generally.

The percentage of Americans who took at least one prescription drug in the past 30 days has fallen by 2.5 percentage points— from 48.3 percent in 2007-08 to 45.8 percent in 2015-16, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. This is not a huge decline, but the fact that there has been a decline at all is a surprise now that the large baby-boom generation is filling the older age groups. Older people are much more likely to use prescription drugs than anyone else. Eighty-five percent of people aged 60 or older used a prescription drug in the past month versus fewer than half of those under age 60.

The use of prescription drugs has not declined in every age group.

In fact, the decline has occurred in only one age group—among children under age 12. The percentage of children who used a prescription drug in the past 30 days fell from 22.4 percent in 2007-08 to 18.0 percent in 2015-16. In every other age group, there has been no statistically significant change in prescription drug use over the time period.

But every age group is spending less on prescription drugs.

The average household spent $286 out-of-pocket on prescription drugs in 2017, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey. This was 33 percent less, after adjusting for inflation, than the $425 spent by the average

12

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I SEPTEMBER 2019

household a decade earlier in 2007. Among householders aged 65 or older (the biggest spenders on prescription drugs), out-of-pocket spending fell from $795 in 2007 to $489 in 2017—a 38 percent decline. Among householders under age 65, out-of-pocket spending on prescription drugs fell 34 percent during those years—from

Percent who used a prescription drug in past 30 days by age,

$335 to $220.

2015-16

In contrast to the decline in out-of-pocket spending on prescription

Under age 12: 18%

drugs, total spending on these medications (including the amount spent by health insurers) has been increasing. According to the government’s Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, total spending on prescription drugs grew 43 percent between 2006 and 2016, after adjusting for inflation.

Aged 12 to 19: 27% Aged 20 to 59: 6.7% Aged 60-plus: 85% Source: National Center for Health Statistics

What accounts for the decline in out-of-pocket spending on prescription drugs? One factor is the introduction of the Medicare prescription drug program in 2006, which lowered out-of-pocket costs for older Americans. A second factor is that many blockbuster drugs lost their patent protection in recent years, with lower-cost generic versions flooding the market. A third factor is the Affordable Care Act. The ACA requires most health plans to cover contraception without cost sharing. This has greatly reduced out-of-pocket spending on prescription drugs by younger women, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.

But the decline in prescription drug spending—and the drop-off in prescription drug use—is likely just a lull in the storm. According to a Kaiser analysis, out-of-pocket spending on prescription drugs is projected to rise over the next few years. Behind the increase will be new specialty drugs, fewer drugs with expiring patents, and the aging of the population.

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I SEPTEMBER 2019

13

Tipping Points on the Road to a Minority Majority

Minority share of the US population by age, 2018

his fall, when children return to

thing happened in 2017: The non-Hispanic

school, the majority of elemen-

white population unexpectedly declined.

tary and secondary students in

The surprising decline showed up in the

the nation’s public schools—53

Census Bureau’s population estimates for

percent—will be black, Hispanic, Asian, or

2017, despite the fact that the Bureau’s pop-

another minority, according to the National

ulation projections had forecast an increase

Center for Education Statistics. Only 47 per-

in the non-Hispanic white population not

cent will be non-Hispanic white.

only in 2017 but in every year through 2024.

Public-school students are a bit ahead of

The release of the Census Bureau’s 2018

their peer group (the under-18 age group

population estimates show that the 2017 de-

as a whole) in turning minority majority, but

cline was not a blip but the start of a trend.

they are a harbinger of what is to come. As

The number of non-Hispanic whites fell by

younger generations replace their elders,

95,000 in 2017. The loss grew to 152,000

the minority share of the US population is

in 2018. Rather than peaking in 2024 at 199

growing. It climbed from 31 to 40 percent

million, as the bureau projected, the number

between 2000 and 2018, according to the

of non-Hispanic whites peaked in 2016 at

Census Bureau’s population estimates. The

198 million—8 years earlier and more than

share will top 50 percent in 2045, according

1 million people short of the projected fig-

to the bureau’s projections. Because blacks,

ure. Behind the early decline is the ongoing

Total population: 39.6%

Hispanics, Asians, and other minorities are

baby bust, which has lasted longer than de-

Under age 18:

younger than non-Hispanic whites, the “tip-

mographers expected or projected. Deaths

49.7%

ping point” is earlier for younger age groups,

are surpassing births among non-Hispanic

Aged 18 to 29:

46.2%

explains demographer William H. Frey of the

whites by a margin large enough to shrink

Brookings Institution’s Metropolitan Policy

the overall non-Hispanic white population.

Aged 30 to 39:

43.8%

Aged 40 to 49:

41.3%

Aged 50 to 64: Aged 65-plus:

Census Bureau’s population projections, the

The early decline in the non-Hispanic white

minority-majority threshold will be crossed

population means the minority-majority tip-

in 2041 for the 40-to-49 age group, in 2033

ping points by age group could occur a bit

31.8%

for the 30-to-39 age group, in 2027 for the

sooner than projected. That won’t matter

18-to-29 age group, and next year—2020—

for public school children. Their tipping point

23.5%

for the under-18 age group as a whole.

was in 2014.

Source: Census Bureau population estimates

14

Program. According to his analysis of the

But these tipping points may occur even sooner than projected, because a funny

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I SEPTEMBER 2019

and the Great Recession. Manufacturing jobs now make up just 10% of today’s private sector workforce, down from 16% in 2010 and 25% in 1980.

But recent years have seen a rebound of sorts in American manufacturing, with some 1.5 million jobs gained back, and manufacturing job gains in 82 out of 100 months since January 2011, according to an analysis by the Economic Innovation Group (EIG). The EIG shows that while manufacturing jobs have rebounded, it hasn’t happened uniformly across the country. Manufacturing jobs have seen the biggest growth in the West, but in 2017 and 2018, stronger growth returned to the South and Midwest as well.

Demographic changes take many forms.

Sometimes they are best described in articles or books. Sometimes in documentaries and movies. For This Month’s Bookshelf, George Puro follows the demographic shifts taking place as a result of globalization.

American Factory Against the backdrop of the millions of manufacturing jobs the US has lost in the last few decades, Netflix has released the captivating new documentary American Factory. The film is directed by Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert, filmmakers who previously told the beginning of this story in their Oscar-nominated short The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant, released in 2009.

American Factory won the best directing award for a US documentary at the Sundance Film Festival and is considered a strong candidate for the upcoming Oscars. The documentary’s producers have also added to the buzz: Barack and Michelle Obama chose the film to be the first released from their production company, Higher Ground Productions, which launched in the Spring of 2019.

For many of GM’s laid-off employees who found their way back to work at the auto glass factory, the relief of finally having a job came with tradeoffs. While unemployment rates have finally dropped, wages have not returned. But Americans have more to worry about than just money. The film reveals the clash of cultures that can happen when a foreign company invests in America. The Chinese complain about how slow and lazy the American workers are. The Americans see how little the Chinese care about quality of life and workplace safety.

The film also details the struggle between the anti-union Chinese and the many plant workers who want to unionize. Says the chairman of the company which bought the plant: “If a union comes in, I’m shut-

ting it down.” Indeed, the changes American factories have experienced in recent years have taken a big toll on unions. Union membership rate in manufacturing was just 9% in 2018, down from 12.2% in 2008 and a whopping 30.3% in 1983.

Midway through the film, a number of American managers are brought to China to see how efficiently they work. But we also hear about working conditions there—workers put in 12-hour days for 6 or 7 days a week, and sometimes only see their families once or twice a year.

Yet, the Chinese employees in America— away from their families for two years for no extra pay and under immense pressure to make the factory run more efficiently—envy the relative freedom of American workers, to a degree: “I really admire Americans. They can work two jobs. They can have another job besides working here. I always thought Americans lived a comfortable and superior life. I thought they didn’t have to make any sacrifices.”

While globalization has helped these American blue-collar workers get back on their feet, many are resigned to the notion that the good times at GM will never come back. Still, many Americans have faith. As Timi Jernigan says: “You never give up on the American Dream. To me, that would be un-American. I can have that white fence.

I can have that nice home. Send my children to college if that’s want they want to do. Get treated with common decency.

You have to be able to believe in it.”

The GM plant closing that opens the film was, of course, one of many affecting blue-collar America in recent decades. Between 2000 and 2010, the US lost about 6 million manufacturing jobs, succumbing to pressures from offshoring, automation

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I SEPTEMBER 2019

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