JUNE 2019
Yes, American Demographics is Back! Are Tweets Changing Our Lives? Twitter may be a force for good American Generosity: 84% either can’t afford to be generous or can’t be bothered Millennials Are Making Ride-Hailing Happen. In fact, they turned “uber” into a verb Proof At Last: The country is going to the dogs On The Bookshelf Two new books are putting population trends into context
THE 2020 CENSUS BEST EVER OR DISASTER WAITING TO HAPPEN
I’M TELLING YOU THAT THERE ARE THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS OF HUGUENOTS LIVING IN IDAHO.
IN THIS ISSUE OF
JUNE 2019
PUBLISHER Phillip Russo
EDITORIAL STAFF
4 6
American Demographics is Back!
Brad Edmondson Cheryl Russell George Puro
Are Tweets Changing Our Lives?
Dane Twining Tom Prendergast
7
How Generous Is the American Public? CREATIVE DIRECTOR
8
020 US Census: 2 Best Ever or Disaster Waiting to Happen?
Melissa Subatch
American Demographics and americandemographics.com
12
are owned by the Private Label Manufacturers
ho Are Ride-Hailing’s W Best Customers?
Association, 630 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10017 and licensed for publication by Kent Media, 240 Central Park South, New York, N.Y. 10019. Periodicals postage
14
Is the Country Going to the Dogs?
paid at Macedonia, OH and additional mailing offices.
All rights reserved under the Library of Congress.
15
This Month’s Book Shelf: - Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline - The Human Tide
No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage or retrieval system, except as may be expressly permitted in writing by the copyright owners.
JUNE 2019
Yes, American Demographics is Back! Are Tweets Changing Our Lives? Twitter may be a force for good American Generosity: 84% either can’t afford to be generous or can’t be bothered Millennials Are Making Ride-Sharing Happen. In fact, they turned “uber” into a verb Proof At Last: The country is going to the dogs On The Bookshelf Two new books are putting population trends into context
THE 2020 CENSUS BEST EVER OR DISASTER WAITING TO HAPPEN
American Demographics is Back! elcome to the second issue of the new American Demographics magazine. For more than 25 years, it was the place to go for US demographics trends. Among numerous publications which covered the hard news of the day, American Demographics stood out as a source of information which helped readers understand the day’s trends before they became hard news. With a staff of editors, regular freelancers and expert correspondents, American Demographics pored through dense academic and government publications in demography, geography, gerontology, sociology and other fields, combining highlights from these sources with interviews and eyewitness reporting. At its best, the magazine united the diverse worlds of applied demographers, policy makers, planners, market researchers and retail and manufacturing executives who share a need to make informed judgements about the future. When it ceased publication, it left its readers without comparable information and insight. Now, American Demographics is back. And the time of its revival could not be more significant. Polarization has left many questioning our country’s future. Diversity—beyond anyone’s predictions—has made understanding the forces at work in our society more essential than ever. The new American Demographics will explore new means of communicating ideas and experiences—through video streaming and social media. It will search for causes and not rely on the obvious. It will go back into human history around the world to find explanations which may have been overlooked or forgotten. American Demographics is back and we look forward to your readership and support.
to subscribe, visit: www.americandemographics.com
4
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I JUNE 2019
NOT ACCORDING TO AMERICAN DEMOGRAPHICS!
By Cheryl Russell
Are Tweets Changing Our Lives? o, this is not a story about Donald
public did not know what to do after getting the
Trump. This is a story about Big
warning. Confusion reigned, revealing the pub-
Data—Twitter data. As it turns out,
lic’s need for guidance after an emergency alert.
Twitter can be an effective tool for
Two, surprisingly there was no process for com-
tracking public attitudes. Three recent studies
municating the “All Clear.” Oops! Another lesson
show how Twitter provides insight into the “hive
learned. “The lack of a collective memory of mis-
mind” of the American public.
sile alert drills coupled with the present-day ability to instantaneously share information through so-
Public perceptions of the police
cial media can affect societal reactions,” conclud-
An Urban Institute study analyzed 65 million
ed the researchers.
tweets containing the words “police” or “cop” posted nationwide in the 150 days before and af-
Extreme weather events
ter the death of Freddie Gray. Gray died on April
A study published in the Proceedings of the Na-
19, 2015, while in police custody in Baltimore. The
tional Academy of Sciences examined 60 million
purpose of the study was to determine whether
weather-related tweets posted between 2014 and
Twitter could be used to assess changing public
2016, as well as their location data. The study’s
sentiment toward the police. The answer is yes,
purpose, according to the New York Times, was
Twitter can be used in this way. After Gray’s death,
to determine whether hotter temperatures are
both positive and negative tweets about the police
becoming the “new normal.” They are. Research-
increased. The number of positive daily tweets in-
ers compared the local temperature at the time of
creased by 1,579. The number of negative daily
the tweet to the long-term average temperature
tweets increased by a much larger 33,922. Public
in the area to determine whether the public gets
sentiment, revealed.
used to extreme weather events. It does. As the Times summed it up: “People learn to accept ex-
Emergency communications
treme weather as normal in as little as two years.”
Remember the false emergency alert, warning
This could mean the public will “underestimate
residents of Hawaii of an incoming ballistic mis-
the extent of global warming.”
sile? The federal government not only remembers it, but the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention wanted to learn something from it. To that end, CDC researchers examined more than 14,000 tweets in the 38 minutes before and after the issuance of the alert on January 13, 2018. The CDC learned two things from the study. One, the
6
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I JUNE 2019
How Generous Is the American Public? ou get them daily—by snail mail and
under age 25 donate to charities during an average
email—solicitations, asking for your do-
quarter, the figure rising to a modest high of just 23
nation to this or that worthy cause. Mil-
percent among householders aged 65 or older. Not
lions of Americans respond. According to
much to brag about here…
the latest statistics from Giving USA, charitable donations exceeded $400 billion in 2017 for the first time. Let’s pat ourselves on the back for a job well done. Aren’t we generous?
Percent of households donating money to charitable organizations, average quarter 2016 16.1%
Total households: Not so fast. Let’s drill down to the facts about charitable giving. To start with, the $400 billion figure in-
Under age 25:
cludes individual contributions as well as giving by
Aged 25 to 34:
foundations and corporations. Individual contribu-
Aged 35 to 44:
tions account for 70 percent of the total, says Giving
7.5% 10% 12.3%
USA. Drill a little deeper and it becomes apparent
Aged 45 to 54:
that most individual giving goes to the church or re-
Aged 55 to 64:
ligious organization to which the donor belongs—62 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’
Aged 65 to 74:
Consumer Expenditure Survey. Just 33 percent of
Aged 75-plus:
15.9% 18.7% 23.4% 22.6%
individual giving goes to all those competing worthy causes such as United Way, The Sierra Club, and Habitat for Humanity.
Yes, some Americans are generous. Sixteen percent to be precise. The other 84 percent either can’t afford
Let’s dive even deeper into the numbers until we can
to be generous—or can’t be bothered.
see how many households give to charity, based on a Bureau of Labor Statistics’ analysis of the 2016 Consumer Expenditure Survey. Surprise, surprise. Perhaps Americans aren’t so generous after all. Most households do not give any money at all to charitable causes. Only 16 percent donated money to a charity during an average quarter of 2016. Charitable giving rises with age. Fewer than 10 percent of householders
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I JUNE 2019 7
8
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I JUNE 2019
By Brad Edmonson
THE 2020 US CENSUS: THE BEST EVER OR A DISASTER WAITING TO HAPPEN The United States Constitution requires the Bu-
could improve the count and also dramatically
reau of the Census to count every resident of the
decrease its cost. But Congress only provided
United States and all housing units once every
enough money for the Bureau to do one full-blown
ten years. It’s the largest mobilization of Feder-
test of the new procedure, and that happened in
al employees short of a war. The 2010 version
an area with no significant rural population. They
cost $14.5 billion and used 675,000 employees
say the test went well, but still…
(most of them temporary) to count 308.5 million Americans in households, prisons, dorms, under
The online plan means that fewer workers will be
bridges, and even in caves. It was a huge job, and
required than in 2010, but that still leaves the Bu-
the Bureau nailed it. Their official follow-up survey
reau with the daunting task of recruiting 500,000
estimated that the total count in 2010 was off by
temporary workers in an economy that already
just 0.01 percent.
has lots of labor shortages. Three Bureau Directors have quit in the last decade. The current
Now we’re less than a year away from the next
Director, Steven Dillingham, was not confirmed
Census Day on April 1, 2020 and the task is bur-
until mid-January.
dened by controversy and uncertainty. For one thing, this will be the first census that collects re-
But that may be minor compared to the issue of
sponses online. In fact, the Bureau expects that
the citizenship question.
most of us will answer online, using a new procedure that doesn’t require a password. It will also
Early last year, Commerce Secretary Wilbur
be the first census that makes extensive use of
Ross ordered the 2020 Census to include the
other databases to guess the identities of people
question, “Is this person a citizen of the United
who don’t respond when asked. These changes
States?”
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I JUNE 2019 9
“
Is this
The Bureau’s own research indicates
ident of the United States is legally re-
that perhaps 6.5 million non-citizens will
quired to participate. It’s one of the first
refuse to participate if the form includes
things described by the Constitution (in
this question. That is a little less than the
article one, section two) because it en-
population of Indiana. The more people
ables America’s representative democ-
don’t respond when asked, the more the
racy. Members of the House of Repre-
Bureau must use expensive, error-prone
sentatives are elected by districts that
enumerators—people who go door to
are drawn proportionally, and the census
door— to confirm their existence.
sets the proportions. Experts say that up to 17 states could gain or lose House
person a
Either way, the 2020 Census will make
citizen of the
online data but it may open the door to
Uncounted people aren’t just unrepre-
months of debate and accusation if the
sented. They aren’t funded, either. The
citizenship question grows into a hot po-
federal government distributes $675
litical issue, especially in a presidential
billion a year to state and local govern-
election year.
ments based on census counts. Mayors
United States?
”
seats based on 2020 Census results.
history. It will be the first census using
and state legislators use that money to What’s at stake for individuals and
hire firefighters, fund schools, and pay
business?
the bills at City Hall. They need the census to succeed because the alternative is
A failed census would be very bad. That’s
painful tax hikes and budget cuts.
because so many essential services are built around census data. If the data isn’t
Ordinary people also depend on the cen-
accurate, the services won’t work.
sus every day, as millions of drivers, delivery vans, and ambulances use route-find-
10
The US Constitution requires a complete
ing software to reach their destinations
count of “the whole number of free per-
quickly. Route-finding software is based
sons” (not just citizens), and every res-
on the comprehensive address list that
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I JUNE 2019
the Bureau and the US Postal Service cre-
variety of sources to update his neighbor-
ate in the years leading up to the decennial
hood estimates every year, and every ten
count. Like most census products, the list is
years he checks his work against the actual
inexpensive and available to the public.
headcount. He says that the Census almost always wins.
The Census is essential because it is the only effort made in the US to count every-
If you are in business, you probably use data
body.
Eighty-nine percent of Americans
from private firms to find locations where
used the internet in 2018, but that leaves 11
people are most likely to buy what you’re
percent, or 36 million people, who never go
selling. Nielsen, the largest of these firms,
online, according to the Pew Research Cen-
takes surveys that find out how different
ter. Offline Americans include 35 percent of
demographic groups use various products
high school dropouts, 34 percent of those
and services. They compare the survey re-
aged 65 and older, and 22 percent who live
sults to census data to estimate how those
in rural areas. Many of these folks are not
patterns will apply to the population in spe-
listed in the gigantic databases owned by
cific neighborhoods. It’s a proven technique
Google and other firms. It’s very expen-
that thousands of businesses depend on.
sive to reach that last 11 percent. But the
How well it works depends entirely on how
Constitution requires the Census Bureau
good the census numbers are.
to contact every last one of us, using an incredibly detailed procedure, and we all ben-
This technique is just as important in the
efit from their efforts.
public sector. Health officials look at the
“
The Census is still the best data source for selecting a site or segmenting consumers at the neighborhood level.
”
demographic characteristics of patients, “The Census is still the best data source
then compare those profiles with census
for selecting a site or segmenting consum-
data to target their responses to disease
ers at the neighborhood level,” says Ken
outbreaks.
Hodges, a demographer at Claritas, which
use census data to plan bus routes and
has been selling small-area demographic
draw school districts. Police use it to fine-
estimates to planners and marketing pro-
tune crime prevention programs. The list
fessionals since 1971. Hodges uses a wide
goes on and on.
Public school administrators
Starting in January 2020, the Bureau will spend at least $200 million (and probably a lot more) on advertising aimed at convincing people to fill out the form themselves. The ads will run in 59 different languages, because more than 25 million Americans speak English less than “very well.” In addition to the ads, more than 1,500 “complete count committees” and 1,500 “partnership specialists” are working with thousands of community groups to drum up support. The importance of an accurate census couldn’t be greater. There are no do-overs.
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I JUNE 2019 11
Millennials: Best Customers of Ride-Hailing A 51 percent
illennials are good customers of ride-hailing ser-
majority of
verb (much like Gen Xers did to “google”). Not only
18-to-29-year-olds have used
vices—so good, in fact, they’ve turned “uber” into a does the average millennial household spend more on ride hailing than older householders, but the millennial generation also accounts for the largest chunk of the ride-hailing market. This is as it should be, since millennials are more likely than
ride-hailing
older generations to be customers. A 51 percent majority of
services
to a 2018 Pew Research Center survey. Among 30-to-49-year-
18-to-29-year-olds have used ride-hailing services, according olds, 43 percent have used them. The figure is a smaller 24 percent among Americans aged 50 or older. The government’s Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) confirms the importance of millennials to the business model of ride-hailing companies. In 2017, millennials accounted for a whopping 40 percent of aggregate household spending on the category “taxi fares and limousine services.” This category includes spending on taxis and limos, of course, but is now dominated by spending on ride-hailing services. The millennial generation’s 40 percent share of the market is far greater than second-place boomers (27 percent) or third-place Gen Xers (24 percent). Older Americans account for just 8 percent of spending on ride-hailing services. CEX data also document the surge in spending on the “taxi” category since the introduction of ride hailing—especially among those in the millennial age group. The average spending of householders aged 25 to 34 on the taxi category more than tripled between 2010 and 2017, after adjusting for inflation. Note that Uber began its operations in 2011…
12
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I JUNE 2019
Behind the explosive growth in spending on ride hailing among millennials (who ranged in age from 23 to 40 in 2017) is their novel attitude toward cars. The results of several studies show that, unlike boomers, millennials are not in love with the automobile. Most millennials (51 percent) “do not believe that owning a car is worth the investment,” according to a survey by Arity, a transportation research firm. In contrast, only 31 percent of boomers feel that cars are not worth the money. A 59 percent majority of millennials “would rather spend time doing more productive things than driving” versus a smaller 45 percent of boomers. Given the choice, a substantial 33 percent of millennials would choose a self-driving vehicle over a standard vehicle, finds an AARP survey of vehicle owners. Only 21 percent of boomers agree. Forty-two percent of millennials love the idea of vehicles driving themselves so they can do other things. Among boomers, just 28 percent feel that way.
Average annual household spending on “taxi and limousine services” by age of householder, 2017 (and percent change since 2010; in 2017 dollars)
The era of the automobile, now long in the tooth, has been costly. Over the decades, as private ownership of automobiles pro-
All households: $56 (+121%)
liferated, transportation expenses grew from an afterthought into the second largest category in the household budget—far
Under age 25: $95 (+128%)
surpassing food and behind only housing. Something was bound to change, and it looks like something is. Ride-hailing
Aged 25 to 34: $94 (+258%)
is beginning to shave transportation expenses. During the Great Recession, transportation spending as a share of the
Aged 35 to 44: $53 (+89%)
household budget fell to 16 percent, down from more than 19 percent in the early 2000s. Despite the economic recovery of
Aged 45 to 54: $43 (+72%)
the past few years, transportation’s share of the budget has remained at 16 percent. Millennials are the best customers of
Aged 55 to 64: $52 (+96%)
ride-hailing services because they are the generation most interested in unbuckling their budgets from the automobile.
Aged 65-plus: $37 (+ 116%)
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I JUNE 2019 13
Proof At Last: The Country Is Going to the Dogs he average American is more than twice
growth occurred at a time when spending on many
as likely to live with a pet than a child.
other items was slumping due to the Great Reces-
In 2018, 34 million households includ-
sion and its aftermath.
ed children under age 18 (27 percent), according to the Census Bureau. A much larger 78
Veterinarians are the beneficiaries of an especially
million included pets (61 percent), according to the
large increase in spending. Americans doubled their
General Social Survey. In fact, there are more dogs
spending on veterinary services between 2007 and
(estimated at 77 to 90 million) than children under
2017, after adjusting for inflation. No wonder the Bu-
age 18 (74 million) in the United States.
reau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects that veterinarians will be one of the fastest growing occupations in
Now for some context that might explain these num-
the decade ahead, with employment rising 19 percent
bers. The United States has been in the midst of a
between 2016 and 2026—nearly three times faster
baby bust for the past decade, with births well below
than the 7 percent growth projected for employment
their 2007 peak and fertility rates at historic lows.
overall. The growing pet population is one factor
That explains why, for example, baby food spending
behind the increase, says the BLS in an analysis of
fell 64 percent between 2007 and 2017, after adjust-
trends in veterinary occupations. Another factor is
ing for inflation. It might also explain why pet food
the rising life expectancy of dogs and cats. “Owners’
spending climbed 38 percent during the same time
focus on pet preventive care, advances in veterinary
period. Americans appear to be obsessing over pets
medicine and nutrition, and expanded treatment op-
in the absence of children and grandchildren.
tions are among the contributing factors to longer life expectancy for pets,” states the BLS. “Aging pets, like
Among the items on which the average household
aging humans, require more healthcare services.”
spends the most, pets rank in the top 20—exceeding
14
household spending on most products and services
Emotional ties with pets run deep. Most pet owners
including cable TV. In fact, pets are the number-one
“often” or “always” seek comfort from their pet when
entertainment expense for the average household.
feeling bad, according to the General Social Survey
(Pets are classified by the government’s Consumer
from the National Opinion Research Center. Most
Expenditure Survey as an entertainment category.)
play with their pet every day. When asked whether
Spending on pets is also one of the fastest-grow-
they consider their pet a member of the family, 76
ing entertainment categories. Average household
percent of pet owners say “yes.” Perhaps this intense
spending on pets, pet food, pet services and supplies,
devotion to pets is not only a consequence of the
and veterinary service climbed 39 percent between
baby bust but also of delayed marriage, empty nests,
2007 and 2017, after adjusting for inflation. This
divorce, and lone living.
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I JUNE 2019
of the century but then begin to move back towards its current 7 billion total. A couple dozen countries–notably countries like Japan, Korea, Spain and Italy–are already seeing declining population. The biggest surprise to the world’s population could be what happens to China’s population, which the authors think could decrease to as low 560 million, from its current number of 1.4 billion, most of this because of China’s one child policies that, while they were recently removed, will have population repercussions for decades to come.
Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline, a new book from Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson, argues that the exponential growth that the world’s population has experienced will not continue over the next century but will in fact retreat. The UN predicts that the world’s population will jump from about 7 billion today to about 11 billion by 2100. The authors, however, side with other demographers, who think the world’s population will hit about 9 billion by the middle
world history. The book pronounces that the demographic revolution began around 1800, in Britain, the United States and throughout the British Empire. At that point in time, dramatic changes began to take hold in infant mortality, with many more people making it into adulthood and living longer lives than ever before. The book traces history through demographic shifts among Europeans and in America, before shifting to Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.
While the book spreads its attention across the globe, with emphasis on how dramatic population declines will affect the countries hardest hit, one chapter centers on the implications for the United States. Titling the chapter “The Second American Century,” the authors describe how the 20th century is known as the American Century, and the country is poised to continue its dominance in the 21st. Not only does the US outdo all others in economic and cultural terms, it will outpace most others from a demographic perspective. The US fertility rate, at 1.9, is higher than its biggest geopolitical rivals and it lets in more legal immigrants than any other country in the world, at over a million per year. Still, the US population outlook is not all rosy. The American fertility rate is declining, even among African American and Latino women. And millennials are having children later in life, a sure sign that they’ll end up with smaller families than previous generations. The staunchly pro-immigration Canadian authors think the key to America maintaining its dominance will be immigration, which “may be America’s greatest competitive advantage in the twenty-first century.” Despite the anti-immigrant sentiment in America today, as well as throughout its history, it’s still a nation of immigrants. And that, the authors argue, is critical to the country’s future.
The Human Tide, from the British author Paul Morland shows how demographic changes are a major factor in shaping
From a US perspective, Morland shows how demographic changes contributed to the emergence of the US, whose population grew from 23 million in 1850 to 76 million by 1900. Since then, the population has ebbed and flowed, growing at less than 1% in the 1930s, then doubling that rate after World War II. Immigration rates have also boosted the population, growing steadily since that time, having “hoovered up populations from the developing world over the past decades,” especially from Mexico and other Latin American countries. From 1980 to 2010, the population classified as white European dropped from 70% to 40% in California, helping to usher in not only the first African-American president but also his successor, whose signature policy has been to stem the human tide from the southern border.
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I JUNE 2019 15
COMING IN THE NEXT ISSUE OF
AMERICAN DEMOGRAPHICS
Welcome to the Age of Grandparents
How Some Retailers Use Demographics
Not As Simple As Black and White Is Rural America Growing Again?
Latest Books and Films with George Puro
Let American Demographics be your umbrella against the uncertainties of tomorrow’s raindrops. Visit www.americandemographics.com and subscribe.