M AY 2 0 1 9
American Demographics is Back! Crime Rate:
First-time Home Owners: Where are they?
Is it going up or down?
Tracking DNA:
Eating Out:
CDC questioning widespread use of DNA for health purposes?
GEN X:
Do frequent restaurant visits affect nutrition and diet?
THE FORGOTTEN CONSUMER
Do you think it will hit us?
IN THIS ISSUE OF
MAY 2019
PUBLISHER Phillip Russo
EDITORIAL STAFF
4 American Demographics is Back!
Brad Edmondson Cheryl Russell David Orgel
6 F irst-time Home Owners: Where are They?
7 Tracking DNA:
CDC Questioning Widespread Use of DNA for Health Purposes.
Dane Twining Tom Prendergast
CREATIVE DIRECTOR Melissa Subatch
American Demographics and americandemographics.com are owned by the Private Label Manufacturers
8G eneration X: The Forgotten Consumer
13 C rime is on the Rise. Is it Going Up or Down?
Association, 630 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10017 and licensed for publication by Kent Media, 240 Central Park South, New York, N.Y. 10019. Periodicals postage paid at Macedonia, OH and additional mailing offices.
All rights reserved under the Library of Congress. No part of this publication may be reproduced or
14 E ating Out: Do Frequent Restuarant Visits Affect Nutrition and Diet?
15 W ho Cares About the Census?
transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage or retrieval system, except as may be expressly permitted in writing by the copyright owners.
M AY 2 0 1 9
American Demographics is Back! First-TIme Home Owners:
Crime Rate:
Where are they?
Is it going up or down?
Tracking DNA: CDC questioning widespread use of DNA for health purposes
Eating Out: Do frequent restaurant visits affect nutrition and diet?
GEN X:
THE FORGOTTEN CONSUMER
Amercian Demographics is Back! or more than 25 years, American Demographics magazine was the place to go for US demographics trends. Among numerous publications which covered the hard news of the day, the magazine stood out as a source of information which helped readers understand the day’s trends before they became hard news. With a staff of editors, regular freelancers and expert correspondents, American Demographics pored through dense academic and government publications in demography, geography, gerontology, sociology and other fields, combining highlights from these sources with interviews and eyewitness reporting. At its best, the magazine united the diverse worlds of applied demographers, policy makers, planners, market researchers and retail and manufacturing executives who share a need to make informed judgements about the future. When it ceased publication, it left its readers without comparable information and insight. Now, American Demographics is back. And the time of its revival could not be more significant. Polarization has left many questioning our country’s future. Diversity—beyond anyone’s predictions—has made understanding the forces at work in our society more essential than ever. The new American Demographics will explore new means of communicating ideas and experiences—through video streaming and social media. It will search for causes and not rely on the obvious. It will go back into human history around the world to find explanations which may have been overlooked or forgotten. American Demographics is back and we welcome your readership and support.
to subscribe, visit: www.americandemographics.com
4
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I MAY 2019
I bet you American Demographics knew.
By Cheryl Russell
First-time home buyers: Where are they?
Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34
more likely than other household types to own
stood at 64.4 percent in 2018, a fig-
their home. The median age at first marriage
ure that has not increased signifi-
reached a record high of 29.8 for men and 27.8
cantly for more than a decade and
for women in 2018. As the age of marriage has
is well below the high of 69.0 percent recorded in
increased, the married-couple share of house-
2004. Behind the mediocre homeownership rate
holds headed by 30-to-34-year-olds has fallen
is the scarcity of first-time homebuyers. Only 33
from the 56 percent majority in 2004 to just
percent of buyers in 2018 were first-timers, re-
below 50 percent (49.8 percent) in 2018. But
ports the National Association of Realtors in its
the disappearance of married couples in the
report 2018 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers,
30-to-34 age group doesn’t explain the home-
down from the historical norm of 40 percent. The
ownership decline. Even among married cou-
figure has been below 40 percent in every year
ples in the age group, the homeownership rate
since 2011.
has fallen sharply—from 72.5 percent in 2004 to 61.8 percent in 2017. The postponement of
Where have first-time home buyers gone? Let’s
marriage did not cause the homeownership de-
take a look. The nation’s first-time homebuyers
cline among young adults.
were once householders aged 30 to 34. This was the age group in which homeownership became
Then what did? The Federal Reserve Board may
the norm—surpassing 50 percent, according to
have the answer. A study published in the Fed
2016: 45.4%
the Census Bureau’s Housing Vacancy Survey,
publication Consumer & Community Context
(low point)
which has collected data on homeownership by
(“Can Student Loan Debt Explain Low Home-
age since 1982. After peaking at 57.4 percent in
ownership Rates for Young Adults?”) finds that
2004, the homeownership rate of householders
growing student loan debt explains 20 percent of
aged 30 to 34 began to decline. It fell below 50
the decline in the homeownership rate of young
2010: 51.8%
percent for the first time in 2011 and has been
adults since 2005. That still leaves a hefty 80
stuck there ever since. In 2018, the homeowner-
percent of the decline unexplained. But the Feds
2004: 57.4%
ship rate of the age group was just 47.7 percent—
have an answer for that, too. The remaining 80
(peak)
nearly 10 percentage points below the 2004
percent of the decline may be due to lower cred-
peak. No age group has experienced a bigger
it scores, which are a consequence of student
decline in homeownership. See chart at left.
loans, say the Feds. Lower credit scores have lim-
2018: 47.7%
2011: 49.8% (first time below 50 percent)
2000: 54.6% 1990: 51.8%
6
he nation’s homeownership rate
ited the ability of young adults—who were once One reason for the decline in homeownership
the nation’s first-time home buyers—to qualify
1982: 57.1%
among 30-to-34-year-olds is the postpone-
for a mortgage. First-time homebuying is now,
(first year of data series)
ment of marriage, since married couples are far
solidly, a middle-aged endeavor.
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I MAY 2019
Tracking DNA: CDC questioning widespread use of DNA for health purposes enetic testing has come a long way in a
cerning—conducted as they often are without the
short time. A few years ago, it was a niche
involvement of a healthcare provider and without an
market with “small population impact,”
understanding of clinical validity and utility,” explains
says the Centers for Disease Control and
the CDC in its Genomics and Health Impact Blog.
Prevention. That’s no longer the case. The number of
But rather than simply scold Americans about tak-
Americans who have participated in direct-to-con-
ing the tests, the CDC is doing something to help
sumer (DTC) genetic testing is doubling each year.
them understand the results. “We can take steps
“By the start of 2019,” reports Antonio Regalado, a
to empower consumers to make more informed
senior editor of MIT Technology Review, “more than
choices,” says the CDC.
26 million consumers had added their DNA to four leading commercial ancestry and health databases.”
Those aren’t just empty words. The CDC is doing just that—empowering consumers with its Public Health
Millions more are thinking about doing so. A substan-
Genomics Knowledge Base (PHGKB). Now you have
tial 29 percent of the public is considering genetic
at your fingertips all the latest data on public health
testing, according to the 2017 Truven Health Analy-
and genomics, curated by the CDC staff. The PHGKB,
tics—NPR Health Poll. Do the math, and that trans-
as the CDC describes it, “is an online, continuously
lates into 73 million potential customers. Why are
updated, searchable database of published scientific
Americans so enamored of DNA test kits? The big-
literature, CDC resources, and other materials that
gest factor behind the growing interest in DNA testing
address the translation of genomic discoveries into
is “mushrooming consumer interest in genealogy,”
improved health care and disease prevention.” How
according to the CDC. The Truven Health—NPR poll
does this differ from the plain old internet, you ask?
confirms this statement. Among those who have had
One word: curated. No crazies, no horror stories, no
their DNA tested, the single biggest reason they did so
rabbit holes. You can search the database for specif-
was to determine ancestry (25 percent). But health
ic topics—topics relevant to your health issues and
reasons rank second and third, with 24 percent of test
DNA test results. You don’t even have to proactively
takers saying they submitted their DNA for diagnostic
visit the web site to see the latest research. Sign up for
purposes and 16 percent for predictive purposes.
MyPHGKB to receive email alerts about new research into your specific health concerns. Have fun!
The CDC is not happy about this. The government agency charged with improving public health is alarmed by the widespread use of DNA testing for health purposes. “We find DTC tests for health con-
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I MAY 2019 7
8
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I MAY 2019
By David Orgel
GENERATION
THE FORGOTTEN CONSUMER From media articles to conference
1970s, which means they range in
search Center referred to Gen X as
sessions, the topic of generational
age from about 40 to the mid-50s.
“America’s Neglected ‘Middle Child.’”
marketing is getting a lot of play. The
This may seem like a wide age span,
A piece in Forbes late last year la-
result has been to further the influ-
but it’s relatively narrow compared to
beled Gen X “The Forgotten Gener-
ence of millennials, keep baby boom-
boomers and, depending on how you
ation.” That article dredged up facts
ers in the spotlight, and increasingly
define it, to millennials as well.
well known to this cohort, but not
put a younger group, generation Z, on the radar.
necessarily recalled by everyone. Gen X is also relatively small in size.
Gen X was derisively termed the
There are about 66 million members
‘slacker generation’ and the ‘latchkey
Lost in all the buzz, however, is a gen-
of this group, according to 2017 U.S.
kids,’ and has now “fallen off the radar
eration that is no stranger to being
data from Statista. That compares
among marketers.”
overlooked. This group, Generation
to 73 million baby boomers and 72
X, has long been ignored and under-
million millennials. It’s not uncom-
These 66 million people still don’t get
valued. Today, though, the conse-
mon to hear Gen X referred to as a
the respect they deserve, but some-
quences of this situation are far more
generation bookended between two
thing has changed. They are now at
serious.
larger ones.
the height of their power and impact, including in careers, spending, and
Given the overlooked status of Gen
The overshadowing of Gen X isn’t
overall influence. There’s a greater
X, it’s useful to start with a refresher.
exactly breaking news to members
cost in failing to focus on this cohort.
Members of this cohort were born
of this group. This status goes back
Gen X may be the biggest untapped
roughly between 1965 and the late
a long way. An article from Pew Re-
opportunity for strategic planning.
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I MAY 2019 9
THE RISING INFLUENCE OF GEN X
The data on the financial clout of Gen X
Moreover, Gen Xers are becoming the top
speaks for itself. This group represents
leaders in companies. One study reported
31 percent of U.S. income, even though
this cohort holds about half of leadership
it makes up only about 25 percent of the
roles worldwide.
population, according to a 2016 Forbes piece. Gen X outspends others on housing,
Gen X is having “a significant impact in the
clothing, eating out, and entertainment,
workplace, even if the boomers and millen-
according to a visioncritical.com article
nials are the focus of attention,” said Rob-
that cited U.S. Labor Department data.
ert Tanner, founder of Business Consulting Solutions LLC, in an article on the website
Moreover, Gen X overall is poised to be-
Management is a Journey. “Generation X is
come the wealthiest generation, surpass-
quietly moving into middle management
ing boomers within the next few years, and
and senior leadership roles in many orga-
spending one-third more annually than
nizations. They are increasingly becoming
millennials, according to a piece late last
the boss in the workplace!”
year in Forbes. Gen Xers certainly aren’t all well off, but their financial ascent has been
WIDE IMPACT ACROSS INDUSTRIES
impressive.
Particularly striking is how this generational story plays out across industries.
Not that they receive credit for any of
A wide variety of business sectors have
this, noted the author of the Forbes
ignored Gen X for too long, and they are
piece, Angela Woo, a Gen Xer who is the
gradually awakening to this fact. That
founder of market research consultancy
has led to some calls for more engage-
Alter Agents.
ment with this generation. Here’s a sampler across different industries.
“Many of us are homeowners and have families of our own,” she wrote. “Here we sit in
• Senior Housing: Members of Gen X
this powerful time with money, resources and
are crucial in driving senior housing de-
influence, and we still aren’t in the main-
cisions for their aging parents. That fact
stream conversation. We’ve watched the
is becoming more apparent. A grow-
culture interest shift from boomers to
ing number of Gen Xers are now family
millennials like we’re a flyover state.”
caregivers to a boomer or a silent generation parent, noted an article in Senior
Meanwhile, there’s no comparison be-
Housing News. “Marketing to Gen X has
tween Gen X and gen Z when it comes
become critical because they are often
to financial success. Gen Z’s oldest
in the position of navigating the senior
members, in fact, are only now advancing
living market for their parents,” said one
from college to the workforce. Despite this,
executive quoted in the piece.
Gen Z gets far more national attention. • Financial Planning: Gen X is the
10
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I MAY 2019
Gen X deserves attention for reasons
next big opportunity for financial advi-
that go beyond personal wealth. Roughly
sors, according to an article in Financial
half of people in this group are financial-
Planning. One analyst, Asher Cheses of
ly supporting both a parent and a child
Cerulli, told the magazine that over the
simultaneously, having great influence
next 25 years, almost 60 percent of the
on the decisions of those generations,
overall wealth transfer will move to Gen
Woo’s piece noted.
X households. “This multigenerational
shift in wealth will reshape the wealth management landscape over the next quarter century, and will force firms to alter their existing business models and services,” Cheses said. • Travel: Gen X has considerable disposable income and needs to get more attention from the travel planning industry, according to a piece on the website of the travel technology firm Amadeus. This generation’s travel tends to be family-oriented with a priority on relaxation vacations. This cohort “should definitely not be overlooked by travel companies,” the piece said. • Retail: Gen X may have come of age buying from physical stores, but that dynamic is changing. Recent consumer research from the Food Marketing Institute points to Gen X’s increased comfort level with online shopping. In fact, Gen X and older consumers are driving growth in online shopping for the first time, according to FMI’s 2018 U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends Report. It seems the online shopping habits of younger consumers have impacted older shoppers, who
are
quickly
embracing
those
behaviors. These dynamics need to be factored into retail planning.
IMPERATIVES FOR ENGAGEMENT If it’s time to stop ignoring Gen X, then how exactly should this be accomplished? Here are some steps that strategic planners need to consider.
range of tools, from digital to traditional. Many Gen Xers still even read newspapers. For that reason, the best ways to reach Gen X aren’t always evident. According to an article in WineBusiness. com, “Gen Xers still respond to tradition-
• Digital Behaviors: In reaching Gen X, it’s important to recognize this group is more digitally savvy than many believe. One study found Gen Xers are roughly as confident in their workplace digital leadership ability as millennials. That’s important in understanding how to reach them.
al print ads and something as simple as an email campaign. They are especially intrigued with marketing messages that focus on family, heritage, security, life experiences, and health and fitness.” • Diversity Factor: Gen X may not be as diverse in racial makeup as millennials, but this generation is more diverse
• Marketing Preferences: Despite the need to reach Gen X digitally, it’s also important for marketers to use a wider
than many realize, an important fact in appealing to this group. “Gen Xers are much more racially diverse than groups that came before,” noted an article on
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I MAY 2019 11
A key insight about Gen X is its need to be understood for its unique circumstances and perspectives.
PewTrusts.org. “In 1963, just 16 percent of
Gen Xers will want to get care from people
18- to 33-year-olds in the silent generation
and institutions who recognize that these
were nonwhite. By 1988, when Gen Xers
extended relationships matter to them,”
were the same age, that percentage had
according to an article on Statnews.com,
more than doubled to 34.”
which covers life sciences and medicines.
• Differences From Millennials: It’s im-
It’s hard to know if the long-ignored Gen
portant to understand that members of
X will finally get more respect in the near
Gen X have adopted a lot of the signature
future. However, the stakes involved are
traits of millennials, but often reflect these
becoming clearer.
differently. For example, in the realm of transparency, FMI Trends data shows that
“Ignoring them means ignoring a demo-
Gen X, as well as baby boomers, are heav-
graphic that has impressive influence
ily focused on how honest and open com-
over both household and company deci-
panies are about their business practices.
sions,” according to a piece on the website of Vision Critical, a provider of customer
A key insight about Gen X is its need to
relationship intelligence software.
be understood for its unique circumstances and perspectives. A case in
In the short term, embracing Gen X is
point is healthcare.
likely to be a competitive differentiator for companies. In the longer run, not giv-
“Increasingly caught in the middle of the
ing this group its due could be a business
family dynamic, where they make choices
death knell.
for their elders as well as their children,
12
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I MAY 2019
Crime Is On the Rise. Crime Is On the Decline. Which One Is Right? mericans are freaked out about
tempted, or completed rape, sexual assault,
crime. Always have been, always
robbery, aggravated assault, or simple assault.
will be. Year after year, when Gal-
(Note: murder is not one of the violent crimes
lup asks the public whether there
included in the NCVS because homicide victims
is more crime in the U.S. this year than last,
cannot answer surveys.) The rate of violent vic-
the majority (60 percent in 2018) says more.
timization climbed in 2017 to 20.6 incidents per
The perception that crime is on the rise ex-
1,000 people aged 12 or older, up from 19.7 in
plains why politicians find it so effective to run
2016 and 18.6 in 2015. Hair on fire!
law-and-order campaigns. It explains why the
*Number of violent crimes per 1,000 people aged 12 or older 2017: 20.6
public is willing to spend ever more on law en-
But before politicians rush to the podium or
forcement. In every year that the General Social
taxpayers order up more SWAT teams, let’s get
Survey has asked the public whether the nation
some perspective. The recent rise in crime is no
is spending too much, too little, or the right
more than a blip on a long downward slide.*
amount on fighting crime, the great majority (68 percent in the most recent survey) says we
Twenty years ago, the violent victimization rate
spend too little.
was three times the rate of 2017—61.1 violent victimizations per 1,000 persons aged 12 or
With this kind of mindset, the latest findings
older in 1997 vs. the 20.6 of today. The rate
2015: 18.6
from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National
was an even higher 79.8 in 1993, the first year
(low point)
Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) could ignite
of the data series. It’s a given, in fact, that the
a firestorm. The NCVS is an annual survey of a
American public will claim crime is increasing
representative sample of the population aged
no matter what—even when the crime rate is
2000: 37.5
12 or older. Results from the 2017 survey show
plunging. The small rise in the victimization rate
that a rising percentage of Americans were vic-
between 2015 and 2017 is not even statistically
1997: 61.1
tims of violent crime in the past six months, the
significant, according to the Bureau of Justice
2010: 19.3
figure climbing from 0.98 percent in the 2015
Statistics. So, if you hear politicians calling for
1993: 79.8
survey to 1.14 percent in the 2017 survey. The
law and order and the public demanding more
(first year of data series)
NCVS defines violent crime as threatened, at-
body armor, keep in mind—this is how we roll.
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I MAY 2019 13
Eating Out:
Do frequent restaurant visits affect nutrition and diet? or whatever reason—to save time, for
a meal at a restaurant in the past week. Then they
fun, or to relax—Americans love to eat
measured each cluster’s proximity to restaurants
out. The nation now spends more on
and diet quality. The five clusters were:
food away from home than it does on food for home consumption—a line crossed in 2010. During a typical week, the average person eats away from home an average of five times, with food away from home accounting for 34 percent of calories consumed in 2011–12, according to the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS). This is double the 17 percent of 1977–78.
1) Restaurant noncustomers (no meals at restaurants in the past week) 2) Occasional fast-food customers (≤1.5 fast-food meals/week, no full-service meals) 3) Frequent fast-food customers (> 1.5 fast-food meals/week, no full-service meals) 4) Occasional fast-food and full-service
Eating out has become such a big part of the Amer-
customers (≤ 1.5 fast-food meals/week and at
ican diet that it affects the health and well-being of
least 1 full-service meal/week)
the U.S. population. That’s why it is being studied
5) Frequent fast-food and full-service customers
in depth by nutritionists, health practitioners, and
(> 1.5 fast-food meals/week and at least 1
policymakers. A comprehensive look at the histo-
full-service meal/week).
ry, demographics, and spending patterns of eating out, as well as an assessment of the food’s nutri-
Does proximity to restaurants increase the fre-
tional quality, is now available in the ERS Bulletin,
quency of eating out? Not really. The study’s re-
America’s Eating Habits: Food Away from Home.
sults show that Cluster 2—one of the clusters that
Here are a couple of interesting questions asked
eats out the least—lives closer to both fast-food (1.7
and answered by this excellent resource…
miles) and full-service (0.8 miles) restaurants than any other cluster.
Does frequent eating out lead to a lower
14
quality diet?
Does frequent eating out lead to a lower-quali-
Does proximity to restaurants increase the
which had no restaurant meals in the past week, had
ty diet? Not really. The study found that Cluster 1,
frequency of eating out?
the poorest quality diet of the five groups. Cluster
To answer these questions, ERS researchers exam-
meals in the past week, had the highest-quality diet.
ined data from the 2012 National Household Food
Why? Because Cluster 4 consumed more vegeta-
Acquisition and Purchase Survey. They divided the
bles, fish, and plant proteins than the other groups.
representative sample of Americans into five equal-
So, there may be yet another reason for Americans
sized clusters based on how often they had eaten
to eat out—to eat better.
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I MAY 2019
4, which had eaten both fast-food and full-service
census. The results of the 2020 Census Barriers, Attitudes, and Motivators Study will be used to shape marketing efforts to boost census response rates. One of the questions on the survey was this: “If the census were held today, how likely would you be to fill out the census form?” Here are some of the results…
In about one year, on April 1, 2020, the nation will begin the constitutionally mandated count of the population. The 2020 census is an enormous operation with consequences for every community— and every person—in the United States. Census counts determine how political power and federal dollars are distributed for the following decade.
• Less enthusiasm. Fewer people said they will be “very” or “extremely” likely to respond to the 2020 census than said so about the 2010 census—just 68 percent answered “very” or “extremely” on the 2020 attitude survey versus 86 percent on the 2010 survey. Behind this worrisome drop, says the Census Bureau, is declining trust in public institutions as well as falling response rates to surveys in general.
The Census Bureau has been preparing for the 2020 census for years. One piece of the preparation was fielding a survey of a representative sample of the public in 2018 to gauge attitudes toward the
• Apathy among young adults. Response to the census varies by age. Among people aged 65 or older, 73 percent say they would be “very” or “ex-
tremely” likely to respond to the census. The figure is only 54 percent among people aged 18 to 34. Just as young adults are underrepresented in the voting booth because of their low participation rate, their apathy toward the census could result in an undercount of the age group. Because Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians make up a larger share of young adults than the older population, an undercount of young adults could disproportionately affect minorities. • Asians are wary. Response to the census varies by race and Hispanic origin. Non-Hispanic Whites are most likely to say they would be “very” or “extremely” likely to respond to the census (69 percent), while Asians are least likely (55 percent). Perhaps as a consequence of the (now illegal) use of the census to help locate Japanese Americans for internment during World War II, Asians are the group most concerned that their answers to the census will not be kept confidential and will be used against them. The Census Bureau has a lot of work to do to convince Americans to stand up and be counted. Results of the attitude survey show that the biggest motivator for census response is an understanding of how census counts boost public funding for local community services such as schools and fire departments. Expect to see and hear a lot of those messages in the coming year.
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I MAY 2019 15
COMING IN THE NEXT ISSUE OF
AMERICAN DEMOGRAPHICS Is the Country Going to the Dogs? Are Tweets Changing Our Lives? 2020 US Census: Best Ever or Disaster?
Who Are Ride-Sharing’s Best Customers? How Generous Is the American Public?
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