USA Outlook, August 8 to August 12, 2022

Weekly newsletter August 08 to August 12

August 08, 2022

August 09, 2022

Gas Prices Fall Below $4 a Gallon, in a Positive Sign Inflation is Slowing Gas prices have fallen below $4 a gallon for the first time since March as a combination of reduced demand and the falling cost of oil have dealt drivers a needed respite during the summer driving season.

Photo: CNBC

The market’s biggest winners and losers in the Inflation Reduction Act The Senate on Sunday passed the bill that’s designed to fight climate change, make significant tax changes, trim the federal deficit, cut drug prices for Medicare recipients, and extend expanded health insurance subsidies under the Affordable Care Act. As it moves to the House of Representatives, the roster of the winners and losers under the bill is coming into sharper focus even before it goes to President Joe Biden.

According to GasBuddy, the national average price of a gallon of regular gas reached $3.99 on Tuesday – down more than $1 since hitting a peak of $5.03 in mid-June. Oil has fallen in price as the global economy slows amid rampant inflation and higher interest rates as central banks around the world tighten monetary policy. On Wednesday, the U.S. will get a look at the consumer price index for July, with economists expecting a slight improvement in the annual rate of inflation to 8.8% annually, compared to 9.1% in June.

While the June CPI will not capture all the decline in energy costs, there are other indications that inflation may be coming down.

Notably, expectations of future inflation have fallen based on a monthly survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The Fed has embarked on an aggressive tightening of monetary policy to combat inflation, with two consecutive 75 basis point hikes in interest rates. The Fed does not meet again until September, but economists forecast that policymakers will likely raise rates again by 50 or 75 basis points.

For both winners and losers, the impact is more modest than you would think, given the sheer size of the numbers being bandied about. That’s because of details like strings attached to some of the new or extended tax breaks, or the schedule for implementing Medicare’s negotiations with big pharmaceutical companies over drug prices.

Beginning with the biggest-dollar provisions of the 10year package of spending and tax cuts, these are some of the effects American corporations and citizens will see from the law. The two biggest changes are the bill’s deficit reducers – just two provisions of the law that account for 80% of its $300 billion in deficit reduction, according to Moody’s Analytics.420 deaths, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.

Photo: David Zalubowski/AP.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/08/the-market-winners-and-losers-inthe-climate-health-and-tax-bill.html

Source: https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2022-08-09/gas-pricesfall-below-4-a-gallon-in-a-positive-sign-inflation-is-slowing-down

August 10, 2022

August 11, 2022

Wholesale Prices Fall in July in Another Sign Inflation May Have Peaked On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that wholesale inflation – the prices businesses pay that are later passed on to consumers – fell by 0.5% in July after a 1% increase in June. The drop reflects the sharp decline in energy prices over the past month, which has seen the cost of a regular gallon of gasoline fall by more than $1 to a national average now below $4.

Photo: Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Consumer prices rose 8.5% in July, less than expected as inflation pressures ease a bit Prices that consumers pay for a variety of goods and services rose 8.5% in July from a year ago, a slowing pace from the previous month due largely to a drop in gasoline prices. On a monthly basis, prices were flat as energy prices broadly declined 4.6% and gasoline fell 7.7%. That offset a 1.1% monthly gain in food prices and a 0.5% increase in shelter costs.

The report follows news last week that consumer prices were unchanged in July from June and were rising at an annual rate of 8.5% after increasing 9.1% in June. The news will be welcomed at the Federal Reserve and in the White House as evidence that the pandemic-induced inflation that has seen prices go up at the fastest pace since the 1980s could be reversing.

Still, some analysts believe inflation could fall quickly as the forces that drove it higher in the last year weaken. Supply chains have improved, energy prices have fallen, labor markets are cooling, and prices of commodities have receded from their record highs.

Markets reacted positively to the report, with futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 400 points and government bond yields down sharply. “Things are moving in the right direction,” said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies. “This is the most encouraging report we’ve had in quite some time’’. The report was good news for workers, who saw a 0.5% monthly increase in real wages. Inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings were still down 3% from a year ago.

Federal Reserve officials are using a recipe of interest rate increases and related monetary policy tightening in hopes of beating back inflation numbers running well ahead of their 2% long-run target. The central bank has hiked benchmark borrowing rates by 2.25 percentage points so far in 2022, and officials have provided strong indications that more increases are coming.

Photo: Marta Lavandier/AP.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/10/consumer-prices-rose8point5percent-in-july-less-than-expected-as-inflation-pressures-ease-abit.html

Source: https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2022-08-11/wholesaleprices-fall-in-july-in-another-sign-inflation-may-have-peaked

August 12, 2022

Photo: AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon.

Wall Street Builds on Gains, Heads for 4-Week Winning Streak Stocks are rising again at the start of trading on Wall Street, putting the S&P 500 on track for its first fourweek winning streak since last year. The benchmark index is 0.5% higher in early Friday trading, and other indexes are up similar amounts. Stocks spurted this week after reports showed inflation cooled more than expected last month. That raised hopes a peak in inflation may be near and the Federal Reserve may be less aggressive in raising rates than feared. The next influential report comes later Friday morning, which will show how much inflation households are girding for in coming years.

The report Thursday showing that U.S. inflation at the wholesale level slowed more than economists expected last month came a day after a cooler-than-expected reading on inflation at the consumer level.

Such data have raised hopes among investors that decades-high inflation may be close to a peak and that the Federal Reserve will be less aggressive about raising interest rates than feared.

However, inflation is still painfully high, and the economy has given false signals before that relief was on the way only for investors to have the rug pulled out from underneath them. Some Fed officials also made comments after Wednesday’s inflation report suggesting their battle against rising prices is far from over.

Source: https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2022-08-12/asian-shares-mixed-after-new-signs-of-cooling-inflation