Traders Insight Magazine [July 2020]

BRINGING YOU MARKET ANALYSIS FROM OUR TRADERS

COVID-19 SURPASSES 10 MILLION CASES BUT MARKETS RALLY Read more, p. 5/6

EXCLUSIVE: OWN GOLD, SELL EQUITIES

NEW DAWN IN THE EAST

NOITIDE 0202 YLUJ

TRADER'S INSIGHT

FEATURED ARTICLES PAGES 5-6: Market Overview PAGES 8-11: My Journey as a Prop Trader PAGES 15-19: Cross market technical and fundamental analysis PAGES 21-25: Own Gold, Sell Equities PAGES 27-29: New Dawn In The East

CONTRIBUTORS GAVIN PANNU: HEAD OF TRADING ACADEMY

Gavin is an experienced trader of a multi strategy fund. He is a certified market technician with both the STA and IFTA organisation and has worked with trading companies and brokers as a Senior Market Analyst and Mentor. He has been a regular contributor to financial publications.

RON WILLIAM: MARKET STRATEGIST & COACH

Ron is a Market Strategist, with +20-years of experience, working for leading economic Research & Institutional firms; producing macro research and trading strategies. He specializes in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and proprietary timing models.

THIS MONTHS CONTRIBUTORS DESMOND: TRADER & MENTOR

Junior FX Trader at Alphachain Capital with a Mathematics and Economics (BSc) degree. Possesses a strong focus in technical analysis and prefers to trade in line with the fundamental theme.

SAMI: TRADER

Junior FX Trader at Alphachain Capital with an Economics (BSc) degree from Tartu University in Estonia. Trades over in the very scenic country of Finland.

BUNYOD: JUNIOR TRADER

Junior FX Trader at Alphachain Capital with Accounting and Finance (BSc) degree, swing equity trader in the past that puts great deal of importance in technical analysis and especially market cycles.

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MARKET OVERVIEW: COVID-19 SURPASSES 10 MILLION CASES BUT MARKETS RALLY GAVIN PANNU With a new month and quarter ahead, the Covid-19 virus continues to take a grip in the financial markets with cases surpassing 10 million and we are seeing numbers growing in the US and other countries across the globe. Overall it has been a strong month and quarter for equities and credit as central banks and governments provided significant stimulus packages and has allowed economies to begin to reopen.

As we surpass the midyear point, the S&P 500 seen as the benchmark for most professional investors is only down by 1.3% year to date and up over 7% since a year ago. This rebound in equity prices has been fuelled by fiscal and monetary stimulus by governments and central banks. The US Federal Reserve have led the way of heavy stimulus and driven optimism with hopes of a V-shape recovery. In the UK, the FTSE 100 is down 18% year to date and down 13.8% since a year ago. The FTSE comprises of largely international corporations has limited to recovery as investors still are hesitant to bid cyclical stocks. The technology sector overall is been the outperformer in recent years and had shown the quickest to recover in the most recent downturn due to the Coronavirus. This is due to the growth in users working from home using platforms such as Zoom for video conferencing and watching films through Netflix.

The Nasdaq index which comprises of the top 100 technology companies expresses this well which is up 19% year to date and 34.3% since a year ago. While the worst performing industries have been hotels, airlines, energy companies and banks.

As economies begin to phase out from a complete standstill in economic activity with governmental lockdown orders, it is clear there are still concerns ahead. Time will tell to how large viral outbreaks of the Covid-19 will be and how it is tackled will also be watched closely.

A reoccurring discussion recently has been in predicting the shape the recovery will take which usually utilises a top-down approach in assessing all global issues. But a bottom-up analysis is the only way to quickly identify the impact of this concern as the spiral of a depression usually begins with corporate earnings and how individual company’s ability to outlast the impact of the current climate as earning season approaches.

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MY JOURNEY AS A PROP TRADER SAMI My name is Sami and this is my fifth year trading Forex. I am 28 years old and from Helsinki, Finland.

I have studied economics in Tartu University in Estonia and learned trading while studying. My passions include sports, being outdoors, psychology and learning new things and constantly challenging myself. During my free time I like to play tennis, golf, spend time with people and read.

You need to change yourself in order to become a profitable trader.

Here are some tips and tricks for better trading attitude and performance. Â As we know trading consist of many different parts. Many of them might seem irrelevant to each other, but they all play a very important role in the unity of what is you and hence your trading success. What you do in the morning and how you have prepared the previous day has a huge effect on the next days results. You need to be prepared to take those good trades and see those trades.

You kind of need to create those profitable trades in advance, as funny as it sounds, first step is to be in a state of awareness, so you are able to spot the best opportunities.  If you trade the financial markets its an exchange type of transaction. Therefore you need to PAY attention to what you are doing. Paying attention is like giving money to the markets and then receiving what is yours. I cannot state how important this paying attention factor is. You cannot receive anything if you don’t pay attention and you pay attention with your attention and interested in the markets. It will not happen instantly and it should not either.

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Getting rich is not something you want to do fast, it needs to come slowly so you will get used to it.

Otherwise it might be a disaster. Plus you learn to respect money much more when it comes slower and not in huge chunks. Â Change is very important if one wants to succeed in it. Humans are not hard wired into risky situations. One of our goal as a species is to survive. Trading can be a challenge if faced with a reaction like this. The key here is to lean how to keep calm so you can be level headed and not react to the market, instead make well founded decisions. Different breathing methods lower blood pressure, lower heart rate and brain waves.

These practices can have an immense effect on ones trading results. There is a saying in trading that if your personal life is really hectic and out of balance this will very easily reflect on your decision making and therefore trading results. Â What I have found out in the years of trading, especially from home is not like in movies. This is a fact that has to be used to, one could say trading is boring to some extent, or paint dry. Therefore patience is extremely important for trading success. When you are patient and not following 10 different outlets but only following price action and candle stick formations, trading becomes much more simple and clear. This leads to better decision making based on logic and not fear. Â That brings us to the next important factor: fear.

Having money active in the financial markets is risky and scary. This fear can arouse after a bad loose streak or just natural as you progress. Fear based decisions especially with money are not well founded in logic or even clear analysis. Avoiding fear is the same as preparing to fail. Fear can be extremely rooted and in connection with beliefs, which can make it hard to spot. The fear of failure has to be accepted completely.

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For example, if you are trading currencies or stocks and you obtain a fear of money, which is quite common, you will therefore be unable to achieve those monetary goals you might desired.

Humans do not want things that they are afraid of.

Fears should be embraced and not hidden from. If fears are not embraced and faced they could have devastating effect on your trading results. Best way to face a fear is to first recognize and then do it.

Meditation and Taking time for yourself.

We live in a very hectic World nowadays with many distractions. Taking time for yourself in the mornings before trading can have a well-founded impact on your results. Right after waking up it is really important to take a 15-20 waking up time, without screen or anything that will draw your attention. This way you do not fill your brain with mostly meaningless issues straight from the morning, but instead give it time to wake up naturally, which reduces irritability, therefore helping you in your trading decisions. Reading the news and following tabloids is also a good way to make your brain go hay-wire right from the morning. Read the most important news you must, but keep reading to a minimum at least before and during trading. Mediation in the morning or stretching is also extremely good. Activating your energies and letting them flow will help you get to the desired flow state that is very useful in trading. Â Other very beneficial habits includem sports.

Those sports where you can challenge yourself, that make you mentally stronger. It can be simple as running a bit more every day. Make yourself win. When you do something hard or a thing that you didn’t know you can do, your brain expands because it is in an uncharted territory. Therefore you push the limit further and further and are capable of doing things you could not before. Life is not about getting easier, it is about you getting tougher and smarter on your energy use.

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Taking Notes and Keeping a Diary  This must the biggest tool that has improved my trading over the years. When you take notes of all your trades with screenshots and explain the whole process, you learn from your trading style and from yourself immensely. I cannot fully state how important this journaling is.

In my opinion very useful way of journaling is to write your trade processes down, meaning what is your plan for a specific trade.

Start by writing each single detail down. This way you will learn what is important to follow in a pair for a profitable trade  Also, very useful is that you can go back to see what went right or wrong and improve your trading style and you don´t have to second guess anything.

The second use of the journal is to journal down your emotions and reactions.

Even factors like how did you sleep last night, was the something out of the ordinary happening, what gave you good feelings during the day?

This requires honesty, which is a very important key in good trading. Write everything you see important, write down in your journal, personal life and trading.

They go hand in hand. After a while of doing this every day, you receive data from which you get a sense of yourself, how you trade and you see your trading style from another perspective.

This makes it so much more easier and faster to change parts in your trading style to suit your own personality.

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Sami is a Junior Prop Trader for Alphachain Capital based in Finland.

He recently hit his initial 6% target within two months of trading the live trading account and has progressed from a $12.5k account to a $50k trading account.

Sami put together a superb video reflecting on his journey so far - topics covered include; - What he did before becoming a prop trader.

- What his trading strategy is.

- How it feels progressing from a $12.5k account to $50k account.

- How he stays focused whilst working remotely.

Click the link YouTube button below to watch.

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Trader of the month Top 3 Performing Traders of June, 2020

1. Sandra: 4.97% 2.

Leo: 2.04% 3. Sami: 1.33%

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CROSS MARKET TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS DESMOND GBPUSD Â Brief GBPUSD has experienced selling pressure as the month of June draws to an end. Given that this point also marks the end of another quarter and the mid-way point of the year, the closing price for this month will be crucial as investors and financiers enter the latter part of the year 2020. Sterling has faced pressure on both fronts as investors seek to analyse the future for the pound on the back of Covid-19 and Brexit talks.

With the BOE increasing asset purchases earlier in the month though stating that the rate at which assets will be slowed is also likely to affect the sentiment on these assets in the short term. PM Johnson has announced that he will be looking to spend on new roads, schools and hospitals as he looks to boost the recovery and the economy out of the economic slowdown. The latest lockdown easing measures are set to take effect on July 4th and it will be imperative for the UK to continue to analyse the statistics as second wave concerns continue to grow across the pond. Covid-19 has shown no signs of abating in the US as cases surpassed 2.5mln and Florida reported an increase in infections by 6.4% at the time of writing. The strain on the ICU in Houston, Texas and rising numbers across the nation has forced some key states to hold fire on their reopening efforts.

Fundamental Outlook Markets are currently pricing in a change of 3mln when looking at the number of employed people during the previous month (NFP). This is higher than the previous value which was largely a surprise to markets. A slight drop in the unemployment rate to 12.5% from 13.3% is also expected as reopening efforts continue around the nation. US-China tensions will also likely remain a key fundamental theme as the US secretary of State Pompeo announced that the US have imposed visa restrictions on Chinese Communist party officials over the autonomy of Hong Kong and other human right issues.

It is no surprise that China will look to retaliate and do the same and tensions between the two will continue to be watched closely. With Brexit talks also developing this week, MPs within the Conservative party have warned Brexit negotiators to reject any compromises that may be offered by the EU as intensive talks are set to continue this week. The EU who stated previously that they may be willing to compromise on the issues relating to fisheries will be looking to wrap up talks with the UK as the deadline for the extension is at the end of the month (June 30)

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Technical Overview  Monthly Taking a look at the monthly chart price has currently been languishing towards the lower end of the range with the key level of support being around 1.2075 and upper level at 1.4275.

Weekly Taking a closer look at the weekly timeframe, it is clear to see the overall bearish sentiment in the market, price is currently below the 200SMA, 50EMA and 21EMA. Price is consistently forming lower highs and my outlook for this pair is for price to continue to move to the downside and reach at least 1.2075 before we start to see buying pressure reenter the market.

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USDCAD Brief USDCAD attempted to recover the losses accumulated during the months of March and April as price broke out of a descending triangle and a temporary improvement in risk appetite sent the pair moving lower and filling a gap on the daily timeframe.

This bearish run was also spurred on by gains in the commodity space as WTI continued it bullish run and broke above key levels of resistance, one being around $35/bbl.

Though with second wave concerns mounting and risk flowing back into safe havens, USDCAD recovered the losses later on in the month and broke back above 1.36000.

This came as BoC Governor Macklem outlined that though job growth is likely to accelerate as the economy reopens, some jobs will not return leaving the Canadian labour market with a permanent scar from the pandemic slowdown.

Monetary policy will continue to remain grounded and will be maintained in accordance to the current inflation framework as the nation attempts to pick itself up.

Fundamental Outlook

Canadian economists and investors will be looking to further scrutinise their key data points as we enter into the second half of the year.

Canada which also printed boosted numbers in relation to unemployment will also be hoping that these numbers continue to show positive signs as the labour market attempts to recover.

At the time of writing GDP m/m figures for June are yet to be released and a forecast of a lower than previous reading does not bode well for the economy.

The nation will also be carefully watching oil prices as the market hopes to rebalance this year. This comes after optimistic statements from Russian energy minister Novak who believes that the market could rebalance by year end or early next year.

The slump in oil prices led to the CAD taking a severe hit though with the recent bull run on the market, a break above $42/bbl could signal further downside for the pair.

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Technical Overview  Monthly Price sits around the middle on the Monthly range on USDCAD with price having most recently tested previous highs around 1.4675. The most recent candlestick outlines the bulls pushing back against the bears as price looks to close as a strong pinbar for the month.

Weekly On the weekly timeframe, we are able to get a much closer look at the price action. Price has recently made a 78.6% correction before finding support and moving higher. Price sits above a previous key swing high as bulls attempt to continue the recovery.

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WTI Â Weekly Since the Oil slump earlier in the year, price has surged higher as demand globally begins to pick up. Price currently sitting below the $42.50/bbl mark which is a key weekly level.

Should demand continue to increase and the global travel sector open up we will see oil continue to rise. Recent OPEC+ meetings have also been positive with nations working together to maintain supply cuts and work on compliance.

Daily The almost vertical momentum on Oil has somewhat slowed as price now holds above a technical trendline. My outlook for this pair still remains to the upside to at least $42.50; a break above this level will signal further bullish pressure to come as long as the fundamental themes also support an increase in price. Recent second wave concerns and dips in risk appetite have resulted in WTI treading carefully as it approaches this key level

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OWN GOLD, SELL EQUITIES

BY RON WILLIAM, CFTE / TWITTER: RONWILLIAMRWA / IGTV INTERVIEW LINK Many within the investment community have been impressed by the strong post-crash rally across key equity markets. They talk about the market recovery as though things were good and mean-reverting back to “normal’. This is not the case at all. Rallies of this type only ever Many within the investment community have been impressed by the strong post-crash rally across key equity markets. They talk about the market recovery as though things were good and mean-reverting back to “normal’. This is not the case at all.

Rolling W-Shape Retest Ahead?

Rallies of this type only ever take place just after a crash, even as impressive at this latest one. In fact, what seems to be happening is the realisation that things are not as bad as had originally been thought. You are still always in loss making territory. The rise is not bullish, but only seen to be relatively less bad. It’s an ugly but thrilling beauty contest of asymmetric risk and diminishing reward.

“Irrational exuberance” - a key ingredient to the anatomy of a bubble, is now also building up. Speculative hot money is contributing at the margin. Fuelled by an idealistic bounceback reaction from the pandemic led shutdown, comforted by central banks supplying an unprecedented amount of liquidity. Mainstream rhetoric is behaviourally conditioned not to “fight the Fed”, while traders remain seduced by mantras of “the [v-shaped] trend is your friend”. Technically, we prefer to let the market decide. In terms of S&P500, 3000 will continue to serve as a make-or-break price level (Fig 1), with risk to 2800 (value zone) and a rolling W-shape retest of the crash lows.

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Roadmap Cycle, Stage Y & Echoes of 1929 Most of the buying is by the Fed, corporate buybacks and the public, but not the big institutions. In fact, liquidity flows have been exhibiting dramatic short-covering during the entire recovery, now verging at 9-year historic lows (Fig 2).

This warns of a late stage “Minsky moment”, disguised by profit-taking, as smart money heeds the signs and sells positions, or re-hedges, to preserve capital.

Our signature roadmap cycle marks this as part of a 3-stage process, not an event (Fig 3).

A crash-fall (W-X), rally (X-Y), followed by rest of the fall (Y-Z). S&P500’s 80% post-crash rally is larger than average and therefore offers a greater asymmetric downside risk.

Global breadth also remain polarised. In the US there are seven stocks which dominate the Nasdaq index. This can easily go to a new high, but remains divergent from the broad-based S&P500 & psychological bell-weather Dow Jones Index.

This also reflects growing perception of the damage to the global economy and the US economy that has already been done. The hit is so bad that the only period of history to compare to it is what happened between 1929 and 1933.

The chart analogue from this period continues to serve as a viable roadmap. History does not repeat in exactly the same way, but will likely rhyme in terms of price and time patterns.

Market historians should recall the 1929 false V-shape recovery of 51%, before its violent 86% down wave in 1930-32 (Fig 3).

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Don’t Fight the Fed, or Pandemic Gap

At some point, and possibly right now the market will break down. When this occurs gold prices will rise, as a hedge. The gold chart is already making a new marginal breakout upwards. So be aware that the stock market can fail soon. Looking back at the S&P500 chart, it shows the rally phase has completed a five wave, W-cycle peak (Fig 3). It is likely done. Expect a breakdown. The only reason for it to go the other way is because the Fed is printing money. Although, even this has recently lost momentum, during the recent shrinking balance sheet (Fig 1). Even so, the previous QE injection from the March crash lows is enormous. Many people think this has to be positive.

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However, we read Mr. Lacy Hunt, who has consistently been correct on this debate. The velocity of circulation of the money goes to zero. It will not work this time. This is made even worse by the zombification of certain industries and companies. While the Fed can influence liquidity, it has little power over insolvency.

Meantime, a confluence of technical, seasonal and political factors are all turning negative. Technically, several global markets have carved out interim tops during the month of June, ahead of their pandemic breakaway gaps (Fig 5). These behavioural pressure zones can be found across the USA-S&P500 (3260-3330), Germany’s DAX (13501-13237), Japan’s Nikkei (23378-22950), India’s Nifty 50 (35262-34769) and China’s Shanghai Composite (3029-3010).

Presidential Cycle Risk, Weak Polls

The market’s price exhaustion also coincides with a recent short-term cycle on 8th June +/2/3 days. This might help to compress the traditional seasonality pattern of a mid-summer rally (in July), to flat, or weak momentum, triggering a potential peak-crash signature from August, into September-October. This period also coincides with our political cycles which exhibit an average downturn of -10% during 4-5 month lead of a presidential election (Fig 6) Downside risk is further amplified this year by the drop in Republican Presidential winlose probability, which is already pressuring the markets lower (Fig 6).

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President Trump was at a high in popularity before the disease hit. He then rallied with the market. However, he has now made mistakes and the big one is in defending police and white power when the rest of the world is pivoting further to black lives matter. His opponent don’t need to speak. Mr Trump talks and digs himself a deeper hole to fall into.

For all these reasons, technical, seasonal and political, we wish to be out of equities right now. The upside is small and the downside huge. Own Gold, sell equities.

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NEW DAWN IN THE EAST INVESTING IN NEW OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA BUNYOD Let us start with outlining couple facts about the Chinese economy. China is forecasted to be world’s biggest economy in a decade which has already proven itself to be the world’s biggest exporter, manufacturer, food producer and now undergoes transfer into services reliant economy.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese economy was forecasted to grown 6% in 2020 compared to 3% in the US. Certainly, the pandemic had its effects on a global economy including Chinese but after all, China is among first countries currently undergoing “v” shape rebound, showing early signs of healthy recovery with the great domestic performance in the service sector since lockdown (Bloomberg News, 2020).

Sadly, a pandemic is not the only issue facing This country. US-China trade war does not show any major signs to an end but it will have a very little impact on the service sector as China has entirely separate tech ecosystem that has banned tech giants like Facebook, Twitter and Google, allowing domestic companies to flourish resulting in the rise of worlds new tech giants with their own Amazon (Alibaba) and Facebook Inc. (Tencent Holdings).

Until recently, foreign investors were not allowed to buy Chinese stocks but thanks to recent reforms, participation in Chinese markets become more accessible and easier to international investors. These reforms are making Chinese companies and Western investors more connected than ever resulting in domestic drink firm grow bigger than Coca-Cola and Disney, and emerging e-commerce Pinduoduo’s stock price rise 150%. (Financial Times, 2020)

Let us review 3. Chinese stocks that are important to watch closely:

1. BILI Market value – $9.3 billion Online entertainment company for video streaming and gaming, founded in 2009 targeting China’s youth.

Has a strategic partnership with China’s tech giant Tencent holding and its 5% owned

by SONY In 2015 its revenue increased to 6300%

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From the chart above it is clear to see that the stock has entered the stage 2 mark up forming series of higher highs and higher lows pausing at the peak after almost two years of stage 1 accumulation. The stock on its way has tested short term (10 weeks) and mediumterm (20 weeks) moving averages all of which including the long term (50 weeks) are below the price indicating an uptrend. The stock is now at its peak with RSI at overbought level (86) showing clear signs of divergence that possibly indicates a start of a pullback testing major Fibonacci Level of 61.8 which correlates with a resistance/support level at 29.06 regions, which will be a perfect time to buy stock cheaper. Â 1. Pinduoduo In 2008 was listed in US stock market Since March its stock rose 150% on news of larger sales volume than eBay The most valuable unprofitable company Third largest e-commerce player in China after Alibaba and JD.com

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Another stock at its peak level with Relative Strength Index in an overbought region (87.73) with a possible divergence. Price remained in an accumulation stage for 1.6 years with slight signs of mark-up, tested the long term moving average and spiked high. The possibility of the pullback retracing on a 61.8 Fib level and the mid-term moving average is present.

1. Tencent Holdings One of the largest social media, streaming video and video game companies in the world China’s Tech giant A big company that will little to no be affected by US and China Trade War Owns the world’s largest standalone mobile app with over 1 billion monthly active users, WeChat.

Unlike other two stocks above, TCEHY (Tencent Holding Ltd.) was in a market for quite a while with an established trendline that has been tested at least 6 times, 2 times the trendline was falsely broken but the price bounced back on (200 weeks) moving average that is just below the trendline. The price is seen to leave the consolidation stage breaking above the last peak level with a gap upwards. RSI is currently in overbought level with the sign of divergence. We ought to see a confirmation of a possibly forming uptrend with a pullback that may reach an important psychological level of 50 and retrace forming new higher highs and higher lows.

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ABOUT ALPHACHAIN Alphachain Capital is a proprietary trading firm founded with a vision of combining strategy, innovation and technology to succeed in today’s global markets. Alphachain Academy focuses on the development of our new traders for our prop firm. For aspiring and novice traders, the Alphachain Academy's programmes have been designed to develop, select and grow a new generation of talented prop traders from a variety of backgrounds who wish to trade cryptocurrency or FX markets. For established traders we offer state of the art infrastructure, investment capital and a collaborative trading environment nurturing success.

Web: https://www.alphachain.academy/ Phone: +44 20 7097 1715 Email: info@alphachain.co.uk Office: 25 Clarendon Road, Redhill, Surrey, RH1 1QZ Disclaimer: Trading in any financial products whether with or without margin carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. We advise you to carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you based on your personal circumstances. Trading involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. All information in this publication is for education only and should not be seen as advice or a trading signal.