Feedinfo Review Summer 2021

REVIEW

Summer 2021 Issue

MAGAZINE EXCLUSIVE

AMINO ACIDS FORECAST

THE OTHER VACCINE

Consolidation rethink in the post-COVID-19 supply chain

Preview of Delphi supply and demand insights

Are we close to an ASF prophylactic?

Pages 10-13

Pages 18-19

Pages 26-30

YOUR CONNECTION TO THE GLOBAL ANIMAL NUTRITION AND FEED INDUSTRY

ONE HEALTH, MULTIPLE PANDEMICS WITH ADISSEO

One Health is an approach that recognizes that the health of people is closely connected to the health of animals and to our shared environment.

As a world leader in animal nutrition, Adisseo has an important role to play to achieve optimal health outcomes, a goal set up by One Health.

Through this video, learn more about Adisseo’s involvement in One Health with François PELLET, Executive director of SBU Specialties at Adisseo and Guilherme GONCALVES, Global Category Manager for Health by Nutrition at Adisseo, and discover practical solutions deployed by farmers with Carlos PIÑEIRO, CEO at PigChamp.

A ADI023-00

If you would like to share your experience on the topic, or if you have any questions, feel free to >>> contact us.

www.adisseo.com

WELCOME

FROM THE EDITOR

E

Welcome to the summer edition of Feedinfo Review

xperts have been insisting for years on the ‘one health’ concept: the idea that human health, animal health and environmental health are inseparable.

For its part, the animal nutrition industry was hardly neglecting to take the concept seriously. On the contrary, the notion of ‘one health’ has been behind one of the most important transformations in the history of the feed additives industry: the idea that antibiotic growth promoters used in feed will spur the development of antimicrobial resistance and that the industry should instead use nonmedicated feed additives to support the animal’s health and performance. For a few decades, this has led to an explosion in the different types of additives available and in the research to support their use in boosting animals’ immune systems or outcompeting pathogens.

Still, the zoonotic virus SARS-CoV-2 has completely changed the industry’s ‘one health’ conversation from a focus on the development of antimicrobial resistance to one about the threat of pathogens emerging from the animal world to cause panic and destruction in human society.

This issue of Feedinfo Review is an attempt to take stock of different ways in which diseases in both humans and animals

Shannon Behary, editor, Feedinfo

are shaping the industry and how the industry is evolving in response. We take a deep dive into what COVID-19 has shown us about the pressure points in animal nutrition and animal production supply chains and whether change is needed to shore up those vulnerabilities. We also look at SARS-CoV-2 in animals and the rollout of the veterinary vaccine against it. We dissect the latest news about other diseases plaguing animal production, from porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) to African swine fever (ASF). And we discuss how biosecurity programmes have evolved to sniff out weaknesses in our defences against pathogens and to develop proactive protections.

Of course, this is not a comprehensive picture of the zoonotic disease landscape. For example, the industry must also keep its eye on influenzas from both swine and poultry. This is not only because of the high level of destruction they can cause: the 2020-2021 epidemic in Europe has been judged to be one of the ‘largest and most devastating HPAI epidemics [to have] ever occurred’, with around 22.4 million birds affected and the new H5N8 subtype particularly present; it is also because some zoonotic influenzas may occasionally infect humans – and if such a virus then acquired the capability to spread from human to human, another pandemic would be possible.

Rather, it is a call for readers to ask themselves: what lessons can be drawn from the present pandemics, both human and animal? Many companies are learning to be more flexible in how they interact with staff and customers. Others are learning that a more diverse or local supply chain helps protect them against freight delays, or that concentration in services they had not thought much about can deeply disrupt their operations. Those in areas menaced by PRRS, ASF, or avian influenza are certainly learning important lessons about which products are effective in mitigating the risk of viral spread and about the biosecurity measures needed to keep viruses out of the many points of entry.

And collectively we have learned about the constant vigilance with which we need to survey the animals in our care and the feed and veterinary products that keep them healthy. Because it will not be long before sickness in animals comes around to haunt humans.

Have you thought about your company’s role in that mission?

If not, it is time to do so.

CONTACTS Editorial enquiries Shannon Behary – Editor +33 (0)5 61 00 13 45 /+33 (0)6 70 11 27 38 shannon.behary@feedinfo.com

Feedinfo subscription enquiries Richard O’Donoghue – Client account manager +33 (0)7 88 14 28 09 richard.odonoghue@agribriefing.com

Advertising enquiries Lisa Guiraud – Global lead, Perspectives +33 (0) 6 37 46 86 47 lisa.guiraud@feedinfo.com

© AgriBriefing 2021 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical including photocopying, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system without the express prior written consent of the publisher. The contents of Feedinfo Review are subject to reproduction in information storage and retrieval systems. ISSN 1777-5566

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SUMMER 2021 | 3

Competitive exclusion Immune functions Direct antagonism Durable changes in microbiome

Nutrients from feedstuffs

Barrier functions

INTERACTIONS with microbes

Bioconversion Increased absorptive capacity INTERACTIONS with feedstuffs

INTERACTIONS with the host

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IN THIS ISSUE

CONTENTS SUMMER

6-8

10-13

NEWS BITES

COVID-19 LESSONS

Industry developments this quarter

Vulnerabilities force industry to rethink supply chain

14-15

16-17

Pathogen control solution for EU poultry producers

Researcher discusses importance of farm biosecurity

18-19

20-21

INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVES

INTERVIEW

ANALYST'S CORNER

INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVES

Lysine and threonine consumption growth forecast

Probiotic marks dedication to turkey market's needs

22-23

24

PRRS

COVID-19 VACCINE

New strain hitting US pork producers

Russia develops COVID-19 vaccine to protect animals

26-30

31

ASF VACCINES

SHIPPING

Finish line in sight for ASF vaccine?

New China supply chain problems

32-33

34-35

ANIMAL HEALTH

AGRIMONEY INTERVIEW

A snapshot of animal health sector consolidation

Global grain and oilseed markets

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36

RECRUITMENT UPDATES Industry Moves

SUMMER 2021 | 5

SECTION NEWS BITES SUB-SECTION

Production and supply YIMANTE DELAYS

An incident in early May delayed the resumption of production at the Yimante vitamin E plant in Jingzhou, China. According to a source at DSM, the plant was in the process of ramping up following a prolonged outage for upgrade work when an incident ‘led to damaged equipment’. By late-May, the production of key intermediates for vitamin E had restarted.

Elanco has announced it is selling two plants located in Speke, UK, and Shawnee, Kansas.

AMINO ACIDS PRODUCTION IN AMIENS METabolic EXplorer (METEX) experienced a leak of hydrochloric acid at its amino acids production site in Amiens, France, causing the site to be shut down for several days. Production had resumed as of midJune, including for products requiring hydrochloric acid. The company had come into possession of the site, which formerly belonged to Ajinomoto Animal Nutrition Europe, in late-April.

METEX subsequently announced a plan to invest €70 million in Amiens, including in production capacity for PDO (1-3 propanediol) and butyric acid, as well as increases for specialty amino acids valine, tryptophan, leucine, isoleucine and arginine.

SHIPPING PROBLEMS Severe disruption at ports in southern China due to the regional COVID-19 situation and the resulting congestion at other ports are contributing to the ongoing disorder of the global shipping environment, a phenomenon which has resulted in high lead times and freight prices for importers in many parts of the world. According to Feedinfo’s in-house analysis in early June ‘the typical transit time for material from China to the US Midwest used to be 35 days from cargo ready date at origin until delivery at the destination warehouse. Currently, this transit time is a minimum of 73 days’. z More on the shipping problems on page 31

USITC METHIONINE ANTIDUMPING INVESTIGATION The US International Trade Commission (USITC) made an affirmative determination in June in its final-phase antidumping duty investigation concerning methionine from France, stating that ‘methionine from France injures the US industry’. Adisseo, the French methionine manufacturer concerned, said: “Notwithstanding this outcome, Adisseo remains committed to the US market as a consistent and reliable supplier of methionine hydroxy-analogue. Unfortunately, the extremely restrictive nature of the tariffs on DL methionine have forced Adisseo to exit this market segment, further limiting choice of suppliers.”

The final determination with regards to methionine imports from Spain and Japan is expected in August.

ELANCO REDUCES PLANT FOOTPRINT Elanco announced it was selling two plants located in Shawnee, Kansas and Speke, UK, to Connecticut-based TriRx, a contract development and manufacturing organisation for the human health

6 | SUMMER 2021

and veterinary markets. Elanco will also be closing down a legacy Bayer Animal Health manufacturing site in Belford Roxo, Brazil.

IRON SULPHATE PRODUCTION GlobalFeed, the animal nutrition arm of Spain’s Térvalis Group, has expanded its iron sulphate production facility and research centre in Huelva. The company said: “With this investment, GlobalFeed will bring to the market 50,000 tonnes per year of an essential source of inorganic iron for animal feed, in addition to the more than 200,000t of phosphates already produced by the plant.”

BNBC PRODUCTION UPDATE Belarus National Biotechnological Corporation (BNBC) has launched its first feed mills with a grain storage capacity of 600,000 tonnes/year, the company told Feedinfo in May. The construction of the A Block, which is BNBC’s feed mill cluster, took place eight to 10 months ahead of the original schedule, while the initial production of the B Block, which is the feed additives production unit, is expected to begin this autumn.

US PET FOOD MANUFACTURING Hill’s Pet Nutrition has announced plans in June to invest more than $250 million to construct a new pet food manufacturing facility in Kansas. The new facility in Tonganoxie is due to commence construction later this year and is expected to be completed by 2023, operating at full capacity by 2025. It will be the company’s fifth manufacturing site in the US.

US POULTRY INTEGRATION Tyson Foods opened a new $425 million poultry complex in Tennessee in April. The site includes a processing plant, a hatchery and a feed mill which will produce 14,000 US tons/week of finished feed at full capacity.

FEED MILLS IN THE PHILIPPINES The Philippines’ largest feed producer, San Miguel Foods and Beverage, has said it will allocate P30 billion (about $62 million) for capital expenditures primarily consisting of growing its feed mill capacity. It is understood the company has at least four expansion projects and seven new mills ahead.

www.feedinfo.com

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NEWS BITES

Corporate landscape changes MARFRIG TAKES STAKE IN BRF

EASTMAN BUYS 3F FEED AND FOOD

Brazilian meat beef giant Marfrig Global Foods SA confirmed in late-May that it has accumulated a 24% stake in poultry giant BRF SA. Marfrig’s controlling shareholder told Brazilian business journal Valor Econômico that he did not intend to make changes to the management of the company; however, other media sources have observed that if Marfrig’s stake goes into the low-30%, it would have to make a public tender offer for all outstanding shares.

Eastman Chemicals acquired 3F Feed and Food, a Spanish supplier of organic acid derivatives and phytogenics with a production facility in Avila, for about $70 million in late-April, expanding its presence in gut health for swine and poultry and increasing its application development capabilities.

BRF PET FOOD BRF has been expanding its position in Brazilian pet food with two acquisitions in June. The first to be announced was that of pet food group Hercosul. Included among the assets are two production units, four distribution centres, a transport fleet and a diverse portfolio of dry and wet dog and cat foods. The second was that of Mogiana Alimentos, a company with two manufacturing plants in São Paulo state and a strong position in the markets of Brazil’s southwest, as well as export links to the Caribbean, Europe and South America.

The moves are said to give BRF a 10% stake in Brazil’s booming pet food sector.

ZYDUS AH SOLD India’s second largest animal health firm changed hands in mid-May in a transaction worth $397 million, when Zydus Cadila agreed to sell one of the two businesses of its Zydus Animal Health and Investments Ltd arm. The assets for sale are organised as Animal Healthcare Established Markets Undertaking, or Zydus AH, and are focused on India and certain other countries. The buyer is a consortium led by Indian PE firm Multiples Alternate Asset Management.

ANHUI HUAHENG BIOTECH IPO Valine producer Anhui Huaheng Biotechnology (AHB) Co Ltd launched its IPO on the Shanghai stock exchange STAR Market on April 22, 2021. The initial valuation for AHB was RMB2.501 billion.

ADM VIETNAMESE PREMIX EXPANSION ADM Animal Nutrition’s premix and services business Wisium acquired Golden Farm Production and Commerce Company Ltd, a Vietnamese premix supplier, in late-April. Golden Farm operates a factory in Long Khanh, Dong Nai province, which has a production capacity of 8,000 tonnes/year, with a potential to expand to 20,000t/year.

SKRETTING BUYS AUSTRALIAN EXTRUSION FACILITY Skretting announced plans in late-May to increase its aquafeed production capacity through the acquisition of Ridley’s extrusion facility in Westbury, Tasmania. Skretting will pay Ridley AU$54.85 million for the facility, with the deal expected to be wrapped up by the first half of 2022.

SANDERSON FARMS EXPLORING A SALE The Wall Street Journal reported in June that US poultry integrator Sanderson Farms was exploring a sale. Continental Grain, the owner of Wayne Farms, another major name in US poultry, was said to be among the interested partners. At this point, there is no certainty that a deal will take place. Sanderson Farms trades on the Nasdaq and had a market value of $3.5 billion before the journal broke this story.

NUTRECO ACQUIRES BIGSAL Nutreco agreed to acquire Brazil’s Bigsal, an animal nutrition company (mainly minerals and complete feeds) serving the regional cattle market in northern Brazil, from an affiliate of H.I.G. Capital.

CONTINUES OVER THE PAGE...

Valine producer Anhui Huaheng Biotechnology Co Ltd launched its IPO on the Shanghai stock exchange STAR Market on April 22.

www.feedinfo.com

SUMMER 2021 | 7

SECTION NEWS BITES SUB-SECTION UNIBIO OWNERSHIP CHANGES

ADISSEO MINORITY STAKE IN PIGCHAMP

In mid-May, Unibio, the Danish manufacturer of feed-grade single cell protein, revealed that investment firm Stafilies would be coming on as a shareholder. Stafilies is the parent company of Russia’s Protelux, a long-standing partner of Unibio and the first to bring Unibio’s fermentation process into industrial-scale production.

Adisseo has said it will acquire a 24.99% stake in PigChamp Pro Europa SL, a Spanish swine data and management software company focusing on animal health, production, reproduction and biosecurity.

DENKAVIT BUYS NUTRIFEED

General Mills has said it plans to buy Tyson Foods’ pet treats business for $1.2 billion. The deal would add brands such as Nudges, Top Chews and True Chews to General Mills’ portfolio that already includes Blue Buffalo pet foods. As part of the acquisition, General Mills is also acquiring a manufacturing facility in Iowa.

FrieslandCampina has announced plans to sell its Nutrifeed animal nutrition business to Denkavit. The companies will also enter into a supply agreement for the animal nutrition sector. The business employs 70 staff and operates a facility with blending capabilities and warehousing in Veghel.

AGRIPROTEIN UNDER ADMINISTRATION South African insect feed sector pioneer AgriProtein has gone into administration, it was revealed this spring. It is understood that operations at the UK headquarters are being managed by administrators at UHY Hacker Young LLP in London and that the company is in the process of selling its flagship facility in Cape Town.

GENERAL MILLS BUYING TYSON FOODS’ PET TREATS

BIOETHANOL IN US US biofuels giant POET announced in June the acquisition of the bioethanol assets of Flint Hills Resources, including six bioprocessing facilities located in Iowa and Nebraska and two terminals in Texas and Georgia. According to information from Reuters, this will bring POET’s production of DDGS to seven million tonnes per year.

Cat food manufactured by Fold Hill was recalled from major retailers in the UK in June over a potential link to rare disease pancytopenia.

In other news JBS CYBERATTACK Several plants across the North American and Australian networks of JBS were impacted by a ransomware attack allegedly perpetrated by a criminal group based in Russia in the last days of May. The company acknowledged it paid a ransom of around US$11 million in bitcoin; apparently normal operations resumed shortly thereafter.

FELINE PANCYTOPENIA IN UK Cat food manufactured by Fold Hill was recalled from major retailers in the UK in June over a potential link to a rare disease which is fatal to felines: the bone marrow condition

8 | SUMMER 2021

pancytopenia. The connection with pancytopenia, which can be caused by pathogens or chemical agents, is not yet clear, but the UK has seen an unusual number of cases in recent weeks, including in cats which had become unwell at the same time and from the same household.

POULTRY AND PIG PAPS IN EUROPE A proposal for the re-introduction of processed animal proteins (PAPs) from poultry into pig feed and from pigs into poultry feed in the EU gained approval in the Standing Committee on Plants, Animals, Food and Feed meeting in mid-April. The use of PAPs was severely restricted in the wake of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy crisis of the 1990s, along with that of meat and bone meal. The next step on the way to legalisation for this use is publication in the Official Journal of the EU.

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SECTION SUB-SECTION INSIGHT

Meat packing plants’ operations slowed or stopped as coronavirus took a heavy toll on the personnel.

The pandemic revealed vulnerabilities from meat packing to API production. What next?

Consolidation rethink in post-COVID-19 supply chain

I

n late-January 2020, after China took the then unprecedented step of locking down millions of people in regions where COVID19 was raging (and back before the whole world would become familiar with such measures), the Hubei Province Poultry Industry Association sent out an alert1. With the extremely strict rules on circulation hampering feed deliveries, the province urgently needed 30,000 tonnes of feed ingredients to stave off mass animal deaths.

Since that first dramatic incident, the pandemic has not ceased to find new ways of impacting the animal nutrition and animal production industries. Some of these issues flashed into and out of existence quickly, leaving little permanent impression. However, others potentially indicate a larger scale issue or could have longer lasting impacts. This insight will discuss the possibility that the pandemic revealed structural weaknesses in the supply chains keeping animals healthy and supermarkets’ meat shelves stocked – weaknesses which either policymakers or the industry itself might be inclined to address before the next global crisis hits.

DID THE PANDEMIC REVEAL THAT THE MEATPACKING INDUSTRY IS PROBLEMATICALLY CONCENTRATED? In the northern hemisphere and the southern hemisphere, in developed and developing countries, in market after market, the same story emerged at various points over 2020 and even

10 | SUMMER 2021

into 2021: meat packing plants’ operations slowed or stopped as coronavirus took a heavy toll on the personnel. Shutdowns of meat plants due to the prevalence of COVID-19 among its workers took place in the US, Canada, Brazil, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Australia, Thailand and China, among others2,3,4,5. Moreover, even where plants remained open, some struggled to remain fully staffed either because workers were quarantined, feared becoming ill6, or had problems securing childcare with schools and day cares shut.

Famously, these closures led to meat shortages (compounded, of course, by several other factors: lockdowninspired panic buying of meat, shortages of certain types of packaging and need to redirect product from the restaurant and foodservice markets to formats that were more appropriate for at-home consumption prominent among them).

Even more profound consequences were felt upstream, as these closures created traffic jams in the constantly churning supply chains which stretch from the breeders of swine, poultry and cattle all the way to the packers and beyond. The US is one of the most well-documented examples where a highly concentrated meat packing landscape left large swathes of the country vulnerable in the case of an event that took out the local slaughtering plant – and COVID-19 proved to be that event.

“Estimates of the loss of production capacity because of plant closures have ranged up to 25% for beef slaughter plants, 43% for pork slaughter plants and 15% for chicken slaughter

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INSIGHT plants,” claim RTI International’s Muth and Read7, citing figures published in the Washington Post and meat trade media in late-April and early May. With farms unable to offload their livestock as planned and new animals arriving, overpopulation became an issue at some farms. Others saw their hogs grow past the weight limits that their local plant could handle. The result was culls.

“At one point there was a 45% reduction in pig processing capacity meaning about 250,000 pigs per day were not slaughtered. Producers were encouraged to slow growth rates, but some had to cull animals on-farm in ways that likely included suffering and caused considerable upset to owners and workers. Carcase disposal was also associated with potential biosecurity risks and detrimental effects on the environment,” observed Marchant-Forde and Boyle8 in an article in Frontiers in Veterinary Science. Various estimates for the number of hogs euthanised over the spring of 2020 range from between 300,000 and 800,0009.

Regulators take note Faced with empty supermarket shelves and sky-high meat prices on the one hand and livestock producers facing financial and emotional turmoil as they depopulated animals which were too heavy or simply too numerous to be processed for market, politicians began making noise about investigating the meat packing sector for anti-competitive practices.

In the US, the Biden administration announced in June

“The pandemic and other recent events have revealed how concentration can take a painful toll on independent farmers and ranchers” US SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE VILSACK that it would ‘begin work on three proposed rules to support enforcement of the Packers and Stockyards Act’, the 100-yearold law that was originally designed to protect poultry and hog farmers and cattle ranchers from ‘unfair, deceptive and anticompetitive practices in the meat markets’. It is understood that the effects of the changes would make it easier for farmers who have been allegedly harmed by unfair practices to initiate legal action.

The situation brought about by COVID-19 was explicitly referred to as a justification for these proposed changes in a statement from US Secretary of Agriculture Vilsack:

Yeast! m o r f t s be Get the

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SUMMER 2021 | 11

SECTION SUB-SECTION INSIGHT “We see a need for economic research into the incentives of meatpacking plants to run at full capacity” BALAGTAS AND COOPER “The pandemic and other recent events have revealed how concentration can take a painful toll on independent farmers and ranchers, while exposing working family consumers to higher prices and uncertain output. The Packers and Stockyards Act is a vital tool for protecting farmers and ranchers from excessive concentration and unfair, deceptive practices in the poultry, hog and cattle markets, but the law is 100 years old and needs to take into account modern market dynamics.

It should not be used as a safe harbour for bad actors. The process we’re beginning today will seek to strengthen the fairness and resiliency of livestock markets on behalf of farmers, ranchers and growers.”

We can, of course, all agree that the idea that meat companies were inappropriately profiting from the crisis at the expense of their suppliers or customers is unfounded; according to Balagtas and Cooper10, the allegation is backed up neither by data (in the form of share prices of public companies) nor by economic logic (in that it is perfectly easy to understand how a meat shortage can coexist with low livestock prices if slaughtering and processing services are unavailable).

Prone to failure?

However, it does seem clear that a slightly different idea is gaining traction – not that the meatpackers were engaging in illegal collusion, but that the structure of the meatpacking sector has been allowed to grow too consolidated and that this structure is making it prone to failure in times of crisis.

Now might be the time to have a serious reckoning with that idea and to begin to think about how to mitigate the effects of this consolidation on other parts of the supply chain. Maybe we need new forms of insurance for producers? Automation to help keep plants open and staff safe and healthy? More backup slaughtering capacity in particular areas? Different (and readily-available) methods to depopulate production sites amid sudden crises?

To quote Balagtas and Cooper again: “We see a need for economic research into the incentives of meatpacking plants to run at full capacity and the trade-off that they face between profits and costly measures to manage public health. More generally, we see resiliency, and in particular potential trade-offs between resiliency and efficiency, as a fruitful area for further research11.” Perhaps now is the time to focus on this research – looking into our supply chain vulnerabilities and potential solutions – before change is thrust upon us by regulatory action, by consumer pressure, by rogue criminal or terrorist actors, or by the next global health crisis.

References for this report are available here.

12 | SUMMER 2021

COULD ‘RESHORING’ RELIEVE THE GEOGRAPHICAL CONSOLIDATION IN APIS AND ADDITIVES? LIVESTOCK production, of course, happens around the world, even if some areas have seen consolidation in their local processing landscape.

But the same cannot be said of the production of some of the key inputs needed to keep animals alive and thriving. As any premixer could tell you, China has an outsized role in the production of these commodities. It is the source of between 65% and 70% of the world’s vitamin E oil, vitamin B2 80% and lysine (including lysine sulphate and liquid lysine on an HCl equivalent basis); meanwhile, it is home to over 90% of the world’s threonine capacity.

This has made importers of feed additives vulnerable to the widespread disruption to the shipping industry, which continues to the present day in some areas. The exact causes for this disruption are numerous and the effects far-reaching; for example, consultant Jon Monroe explains that in southern China, the high COVID-19 rate in the province surrounding the port of Nansha and the requirements for multiple COVID-19 tests are keeping drivers away from the port, lowering service levels; meanwhile, in the US, 700 skilled equipment operators for the docks have fallen sick, contributing to port congestion.

Labour is not the only aspect of shipping which has been affected; as countries and ports have come fully back online at different rates, disorder has accumulated throughout the system, making it difficult and costly to get hold of limited resources such as shipping containers and space at terminals. The upshot is that, thanks to COVID-19-related disruption of port activities around the world, freight is significantly more expensive and less reliable than in pre-COVID-19 times, raising lead times and prices.

The pandemic’s disruption to the circulation of people and goods has caused a lot of hand-wringing about the wisdom of relying on global trade for essential goods. And as companies are questioning the wisdom of a ‘just-in-time’ supply chain model, some countries are questioning whether it is time to bring manufacturing of certain types of goods back home, including pharmaceuticals and potentially adjacent product categories.

Support for reshoring

The Indian government has launched an incentives scheme worth INR100 billion (about $1.4bn) to support the domestic production of APIs, key starting materials and drug intermediates.12,13 The Indian government’s preoccupation with ensuring an adequate supply of pharma products even caused it to ban the export of pharmaceutical substances, including several B vitamins, for a period in March 2020. The EU has been less committal, but also announced the beginning of a ‘structured dialogue with and between all actors in the pharmaceutical manufacturing and public authorities to identify vulnerabilities in the global supply chain of critical medicines and shape policy options to strengthen the continuity and security of supply in the EU’14.

In the US, meanwhile, at least two Congressional bills15 introduced in 2020 made efforts to curb the centrality of China in the pharmaceutical supply chain (both died instead of passing into law); meanwhile, the CARES Act called for a formal report on the vulnerabilities in the supply chain for critical drugs and devices, beginning an effort which may yield further actions on this issue.

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INSIGHT

As countries and ports have come fully back online at different rates, disorder has accumulated throughout the system.

If the political will exists to spend money and effort in developing and supporting a more geographically diverse production base for human pharmaceuticals, those involved in or dependent on the veterinary supplements industry should consider making the case that critical feed additives or veterinary pharmaceuticals ought to be included in that initiative.

“From a premixer’s point of view, there are few local, pricecompetitive solutions for many of the feed additives that we include in our products. This is a concern, it is risky to be too dependent on China, but we are in the bed we made ourselves a long time ago,” a European premixer told Feedinfo this spring.

The advantages of reshoring for feed additives and veterinary pharmaceuticals are numerous. First of all, reshoring could help protect against shortages caused not only by a new health emergency, but also by other types of geopolitical crises, such as a trade war.

“Limiting the numbers and locations of suppliers of vital products potentially allows for a marked shift in supply or affordability when systems are stressed through trade disputes or any form of natural or man-made disaster,” asserted the US animal feed lobby AFIA in a letter to AMS this June. “As trade tensions increased with China in 2018 and the United States imposed tariffs on imports, the price of feed ingredients from China increased roughly 21%16.”

Moreover, reshoring could help protect users from the impacts of freight disruption, which has already been discussed as the major mechanism by which the pandemic has affected feed additive availability and cost.

Finally, it could help replace the need to physically import feed additives from places where animal diseases are endemic; research in recent years has shown that viable viral pathogens could survive a transoceanic voyage on supports including lysine, choline chloride, or vitamin D and some are calling for increased prudence when it comes to the imports of such products.

It is true that some effort has been made to link the pandemic’s zoonotic roots to a project concerning animal health research and manufacturing capacities. This June, for example, the UK’s Pirbright Institute announced the creation of a new Animal Vaccine Manufacturing and Innovation Centre.

However, there is probably a very low likelihood that we will see

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follow-through on the idea of bringing large scale production of pharmaceuticals, APIs, and commoditised feed additives back to where these products are being consumed. As one feed additives importer told Feedinfo earlier this year, any momentum for such a move would have to originate outside of the industry, from the political world or from consumers.

“I’m close enough to most of the big players and to a lot of feed additives companies, premixers, compound feed producers, and I cannot see that any one of them has done anything to increase the resilience of our industry. The whole industry is still focused on one thing and it is finding the lowest price for every ingredient. Even if a producer was signalling that they would be willing to invest a huge amount of money in re-establishing a factory or production [in Europe], our industry totally lacks any interest in it. This is not building any [systemic] resilience.”

Concerns overblown?

To be fair, though, others might insist that a preoccupation with the physical concentration of suppliers in one country is short-sighted.

To quote the Animal Health Institute, a US veterinary pharmaceuticals lobby: “Animal health supply chains are complex systems that take many years to build, and they rely on back-up suppliers and facilities in globally diverse geographies to ensure product continuity. The location of a supply chain component has significantly less impact on product continuity compared to the reliability of suppliers and the capacity of a manufacturing facility.”

Moreover, it is worth noting that the coronavirus pandemic is only the latest of a series of crises to shake up the animal nutrition and animal production supply chains in the last few years – following the US-China trade war in 2019, ASFs arrival in East Asia in 2018 and the deep disruptions to the vitamin supply chain following the fire at BASF’s Ludwigshafen, Germany plant in 2017. None of these disruptions caused a feed additives or veterinary pharmaceutical supply chain shortage serious enough to threaten the lives of animals.

Therefore, it could be argued that, in spite of the unprecedented consolidation and the worst disruption that the modern globalised world has ever seen, the feed additives and veterinary pharmaceutical supply chains proved sufficiently robust after all.

SUMMER 2021 | 13

INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVES | Sponsored

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ccording to Chr. Hansen, in 2020, more than one billion birds experienced GALLIPRO®Fit across five continents. The company’s first triple-strain probiotic has been on the market for three years in markets as diverse as the USA, South Africa, Australia and

Thailand.

Late last year, GALLIPRO®Fit was approved for use in the European Union, where the company is now positioning it as a solution to help keep pathogens that are the most concerning to the EU’s broiler and egg producers under control without the use of chemical compounds. This is a response to growing demand from consumers for clean label and natural food.

Here we delve into the implications of this development for the company – and indeed, the implications of the new product for the European market.

[Feedinfo] GALLIPRO® Fit has been approved by the EU Commission. What does it mean to be able to bring this solution to producers in your home market?

[Katharina Klager] This launch confirms that animal health and nutrition are key areas for Chr. Hansen going forward.

GALLIPRO®Fit delivers food safety assurance and control of pathogens. The main EMEA broiler and egg production challenges are Salmonella, Clostridia, E. coli and Campylobacter.

GALLIPRO®Fit can help the industry to raise healthier birds, reduce antibiotic use and provide better control over the flock.

GALLIPRO®Fit contains a unique triple-strain probiotic at the highest concentration dose available.

The launch of GALLIPRO®Fit has also led to a rethink on how we best serve the needs of our EMEA customers. By reshaping the sales and marketing organisation we aim to be closer to our customers and provide a better service. The expansion of the team allows us to increase the customer reach and support. As an example, we have started to expand our local poultry business in key markets such as Turkey.

“The poultry business is tough.

Countless complex decisions need to be made daily.”

KATHARINA KLAGER 14 | SUMMER 2021

Katharina Klager

Thomas Vermeersch

[Feedinfo] The poultry industry faces a number of challenges, particularly with regards to the use of antibiotics. What role does GALLIPRO® Fit have to play in overcoming these challenges?

[Thomas Vermeersch] From a digestive standpoint, GALLIPRO® Fit has been proven to effectively boost prevention programmes and modulate the digestive immune system. It contributes to food safety by limiting the growth of poultry enteric pathogens.

This improvement in overall health reduces the need for antibiotics.

Commercially GALLIPRO®Fit has helped to reduce antibiotic use by prevention of pathogenic challenges, such as E. coli, Salmonella or Clostridia. A European study of broilers showed a reduction in antibiotic use of 26%. Similarly, in South Africa a customer reduced medication costs by around €0.9/kg of liveweight while using GALLIPRO®Fit both in breeders and broilers.

[Feedinfo] How does the triple strain in GALLIPRO® Fit differ from previous single-strain products and what are the benefits?

[Thomas Vermeersch] Chr. Hansen poultry probiotics are selected from our bank of 40,000 strains to have specific effects. Despite all our research, there was not a single strain that provides all the desired benefits. After a series of in vitro and in vivo screenings, the strains of bacteria were selected for their effectiveness at demonstrating beneficial modes of action.

By combining strains, we were able to tackle multiple challenges.

GALLIPRO®Fit is our first probiotic to combine three selected strains, addressing the main key poultry industry challenges with a strong position on intestinal bacterial inhibition, both for gram-positive and gram-negative bacteria. In addition, the three-strain combination exhibits very high digestible enzyme production capabilities.

Our other single strain probiotics are focused either on

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for EU poultry producers prevention (like GALLIPRO®Tect – mitigating the effects of necrotic enteritis), or on intestinal functionality and efficiency (GALLIPRO®/GALLIPRO®Max).

The attributes of GALLIPRO®Fit provide food safety benefits (Salmonella and E. coli), boost prevention (necrotic enteritis control, with indication of immune modulation) and deliver improved performance.

Each single strain is designed to face one of the key challenges, as there is no ‘all-in-one’ solution. A multi-strain product can target more challenges. Of course, part of the selection process is to ensure that the strains are compatible and work well together.

All customer situations are different and specific. Given our global footprint and four different approved poultry probiotics we can design customer-based programmes to address specific needs. We have developed a set of laboratory services with our innovation team to help customers to take data-driven decisions and boost success.

[Feedinfo] Bacteria such as Salmonella and E. coli present a risk for food-borne disease. What kind of evidence is there that GALLIPRO® Fit can reduce this threat? Can you demonstrate how GALLIPRO® Fit improves performance, in terms of growth rates or other relevant metrics?

[Thomas Vermeersch} Chr. Hansen is a microbial specialist focused on the power of good bacteria. To prove the ability of GALLIPRO®Fit strains to inhibit these pathogens we carried out in-depth research.

There are three proven modes of actions of the bacilli from GALLIPRO®Fit:

The main EMEA broiler and egg production challenges are Salmonella, Clostridia, E. coli and Campylobacter.

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l Competition for space (biofilm formation) and nutrients (fight for iron, deprivation of nutrients). l Direct inhibition of pathogens by destroying their cell wall due to the release of bacteriocins in their micro-environment (lipopeptides). l Modulation of the intestine’s immune system to make the natural immune system more ready to combat pathogens faster and more efficiently.

We have confirmed this inhibition against different serotypes of pathogens from commercial poultry farms in our Innovation Laboratory. For this we used assays in feed matrix and in agar plates. This service is also offered to customers, to ensure their specific farm pathogens are sensitive to the GALLIPRO® Fit strains.

We measured this effect in more than 20 trials in research centres as well as commercial conditions and demonstrated a reduction of shedding for Salmonella, E. coli and C. perfringens.

Ultimately, more commercial birds are healthy, there’s less mortality, fewer slaughterhouse condemnations and better performance.

[Feedinfo] You say that GALLIPRO® Fit is an ‘easy choice’ and ‘risk free’. What does this mean for producers in terms of everyday use and how does it compare to other products?

[Katharina Klager] The poultry business is tough. Countless complex decisions need to be made daily. Sometimes all the facts are not available. For a customer, testing thousands of bacteria would take a long time and prove very costly.

We have streamlined the probiotic decision-making process.

By offering a triple-strain selected probiotic that operates synergistically, the customer doesn’t need to spend that time.

Chr. Hansen has already done the complex probiotic selection process to find the right strains, dosages, combination, heat stability and synergistic interactions to match the key challenges, resulting in the creation of GALLIPRO®Fit. Each of the three strains has a clear purpose, whether driving profitability, modulating the immune system or ensuring food safety – they all contribute to the best outcome.

In addition, we know that changes in diets and formulations are always risky for poultry professionals. There is always the danger of creating instability and reducing performance. To increase the chance of success, it is possible to check the level of the effect of GALLIPRO®Fit beforehand with a package of four Chr. Hansen assays.

Chr. Hansen provides, unique assays to test the GALLIPRO®Fit effect on feed or on-farm pathogens. The Innovation Laboratory services can verify the energy release of GALLIPRO®Fit, the protein release and the level of inhibition of pathogens.

Ultimately, we develop a bacillus recovery programme to make sure the bacilli are delivered in the right quantity down to birds’ beaks – every chicken, every day has the right dose of GALLIPRO®Fit, providing the best chance of success.

SUMMER 2021 | 15

SECTION INTERVIEW SUB-SECTION Evolutions in the US swine industry’s approach to pathogen exclusion.

Researcher discusses importance of farm biosecurity

D

espite knowledge of the various ways in which pathogens can be transmitted from one herd to another (for example, via animals, feed, transport, air and people), determining the frequency with which these happen in the field remains difficult.

Work continues, especially in the US, on the development of approaches to assess vulnerabilities at herd level related to virus transmission with an aim to enable producers to implement biosecurity practices to reduce or avoid the occurrence of outbreaks.

Dr Derald Holtkamp, of Iowa State University’s College of Veterinary Medicine, has committed much of his life’s work to bio-exclusion – i.e. keeping pathogens from entering and infecting swine herds. He and fellow researchers have developed a process for disease outbreak investigations, designed to identify hazards that make farms vulnerable to the introduction of pathogens and prioritise biosecurity measures to address those hazards. The approach is based on the basics of epidemiology and Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points

(HACCP), which looks at how pathogens are transmitted from one herd to another.

Feedinfo recently caught up with Dr Holtkamp for a chat which included an in-depth look at his work on detecting biosecurity vulnerabilities on-farm, thoughts on how the COVID-19 pandemic changed on-farm biosecurity and an assessment of the US’ readiness for a highly transmissible new zoonotic pathogen like African swine fever.

The HACCP approach He argued that the industry’s current approach to biosecurity tends to be very much driven by the ‘flavour of the day’; in other words, one specific area of animal production, like the potential role of feed in virus transmission, or that of livestock transport, rather than by a more holistic approach. He also stressed that every production system is going to be different and even every

DEALING WITH THE EVENTUALITY OF AN AFRICAN SWINE FEVER (ASF) OUTBREAK IN THE US IN the words of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in a recent statement, “fortunately, ASF has never been found in the United States – and we want to keep it that way.”

We asked Dr Holtkamp how prepared the US swine sector is from a biosecurity point-of-view for the eventuality of an outbreak of a new transmissible type of swine disease and/or a virus like ASF. He said that there are a lot of efforts underway at national and sector level, the main coordinating parties being the USDA, the National Pork Board, the Swine Health Information Center and the American Association of Swine Veterinarians.

And prior to the pandemic (in September 2019), an industry-

16 | SUMMER 2021

wide exercise coordinated by USDA and the World Organisation for Animal Health simulating introduction of ASF virus took place, which in Dr Holtkamp’s opinion ‘revealed a lot of gaps’. But was a ‘good first step to say let’s get better prepared now’.

Of course, since then, the government and the industry has been addressing the gaps. However, Dr Holtkamp believes there is still a lot of work to do.

“If ASF gets on our soil, it still has to get to pigs in herds. I think the single best thing we can do to prepare as an industry is to improve our farm level biosecurity, because that’s the last line of defense, our best weapon.”

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INTERVIEW

The industry’s current approach to biosecurity tends to be very much driven by one specific area of animal production, such as the potential role of livestock transport in virus transmission, rather than by a more holistic approach, said Dr Derald Holtkamp.

“It’s important we do a better job of assessing where these hazards are which are putting our farms at risk” DR DERALD HOLTKAMP farm within a production system is going to be different when it comes to hazard analysis.

“It’s important that we step back and do a better job of assessing where these hazards are which are putting our farms at risk to the introduction of these viruses. We need to look at what are the most frequent causes and where are the vulnerabilities to pathogen introduction,” Dr Holtkamp said.

“That’s exactly why we’re doing this and the idea here is that once you do those assessments, it provides you with the information you need to then go in and prioritise where you need to have biosecurity control measures,” he added.

Hazard analysis can be done prospectively where investigators routinely go out and conduct their work on the farm. The other and most common hazard analysis is carried out right after an outbreak, as this enables investigators to look back at a herd and identify hazards during a specific time period when the virus was likely introduced. This is generally referred to as an ‘outbreak investigation’, conducted within two or three weeks after an outbreak has occurred, while memories are still fresh, so everything which happened can

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be observed in the hope of knowing the exact time when the virus was introduced. Investigators also have other epidemiological information to work with.

Dr Holtkamp explained that his team has a standard set of information which they gather or collect from the farm manager, as well as from the herd veterinarian or others at the company being investigated. They then use the information to prepare an investigation form. It will have maps, satellite images of the site and its surrounding area, as well as any diagnostic information or sequencing information for viruses, etc. The on-farm assessment ensues, starting with a walkthrough and observation of general hygiene.

After the tour, the investigators go through the findings in the form guide which is organised by farm entry events (entry of semen, entry of employees, removal of weaned pigs). Each one of those events has a set of potential carrying agents which may be contaminated or infected with virus.

“We want to understand all the details,” said Dr Holtkamp.

“The who, when, where and how all those activities occur. I consider that to be just the scaffolding because if it’s a larger company involved, we may want to also investigate some specific areas, such as the feed mill or truck wash facilities.”

What COVID-19 means for biosecurity Of course, the COVID-19 pandemic has taken a severe toll on humanity and presented the industry with many challenges, but it may also have had at least one benefit: giving the public an understanding of the concept of biosecurity. Dr Holtkamp shared a few ways the paradigm changes of the pandemic may have helped the work on farm biosecurity.

“One of those is the sudden mass awareness of people as major carrying agents,” he said, advocating for a more formal farm entry process to mitigate virus entry risk either before people arrive at the farm or as they enter.

He added: “The other thing I think that maybe happened is simply raising awareness of how viruses are transmitted.

The pandemic made everybody amateur epidemiologists.

People have started paying attention to virus transmission, social distancing and wearing a mask, all of which are existing biosecurity control measures. I think people that work on swine farms can relate to that and better understand, for instance, why they must shower before entering the farm.”

The Iowa State University researcher also pointed out that there is a lot of discussion about the concept of layering.

“That’s something we have talked about in the context of biosecurity and swine farms for a long time, but the idea that kind of came out again in the pandemic, where you socially distance and wear masks and don’t go out if you’re sick. All those things are layers that, when you put them together, have some substantial benefit, each one by itself isn’t perfect. But if you put them together, then all of a sudden, they are pretty effective,” Dr Holtkamp said.

“There’s actually a name for that, it’s called the ‘Swiss cheese model’. Biosecurity control measures may have holes and none of those slices are perfect. But if you put enough slices of Swiss cheese together, they form a solid block. That’s the idea of layering and I think people may have become more aware of that too,” he added.

SUMMER 2021 | 17

SECTION SUB-SECTION ANALYST’S CORNER

Moderate 2021 growth in threonine consumption

Delphi Supply & Demand Database for vitamin and amino acids updated this quarter.

I

n the most recent update of its Delphi Supply & Demand Database, published at the end of May, Feedinfo estimates that global lysine HCl consumption increased by 6.2% in 2020, while a moderate rise of 3.3% is forecast for 2021.

Global threonine consumption growth is estimated at an impressive 16.6% in 2020, while a moderate increase of 5.5% is forecast for 2021. These scenarios assume that vaccines continue to prove effective against emerging variants of COVID19 and extended lockdowns are not re-imposed in large porkconsuming countries.

China is the world’s leading producer of pork and chicken and therefore plays a critical role in global amino acid consumption trends. Lysine and threonine are predominantly used by the pork industry, while methionine is a key additive for chicken production.

Efforts to rebuild the Chinese swine herd have been undermined in recent months by the spread of new strains of African swine fever (ASF), although the full effects of this resurgence have not been officially acknowledged by the country’s authorities. In its China Grain and Feed Annual, released in mid-April, the USDA noted that ‘although the MARA [Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs] Minister said in February 2021 that the country’s hog inventory had recovered to 92% of its pre-ASF level by the end of 2020 and that the swine herd is expected to return to that level by June 2021, significant industry doubt persists’.

“ASF continues to spread, but the impact is declining and it is largely controlled in integrated systems” RABOBANK

18 | SUMMER 2021

Operating rate (%)

‘000 tonnes

In its Delayed Expansion in Chinese Swine Herd report, published at the end of April, the USDA noted that ‘Chinese veterinary institutes identified new strains of ASF, which due to lower virulency and lethality were able to spread to a larger portion of the herd before being detected’. The report concluded that ‘some producers are delaying restocking their farms due to concerns about the new ASF strains and outbreaks, high piglet prices and high feed costs. These factors will likely slow China’s swine herd rebuild in 2021 and offers a counter perspective to recent statements made by Chinese officials’.

This represents a drastic change from the largely positive outlook that predominated in late-2020, when China’s recovery from the devastating ASF epidemic of 2018-19 was proceeding much faster than many had anticipated. More than 50% of the swine herd had been culled in 2019, but a combination of extreme measures to combat the virus and strong government support in its aftermath enabled the industry to GLOBAL METHIONINE – SUPPLY AND DEMAND begin its recovery by the end 94 2,500 of that year. Consolidation among pork producers was a major part of this process, 90 2,000 allowing larger farms with stronger biosecurity and more professional management 86 1,500 practices to increase their share of the market and vertically integrate their 82 1,000 operations. Demand for high-quality compound feed 78 500 and the additives it contains increased as a result. The outbreak of COVID-19 caused 74 0 significant but temporary 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 disruption to logistics in the pork industry during Q1 2020.

Operating rate Capacity Production Consumption Even before the latest ASF

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ANALYST’S CORNER

lysine and forecast outbreaks, Rabobank was offering a considerably less bullish outlook than Chinese officials. In November 2020, its Global Animal Protein Outlook 2021 forecast that the Chinese hog herd would recover to around 80% of the pre-ASF level in 2021, notwithstanding large investments and strong government support. Rabobank had previously suggested that China’s pig herd could take up to five years to recover from the effects of ASF and might never regain its former size, with productivity improvements meaning that fewer sows and hogs would be needed in the future.

In its Q1 2021 Pork Quarterly, the bank reported that ‘ASF continues to spread, but the impact is declining and it is largely controlled in integrated systems. Large scale farms continue to expand due to better biosecurity [and] have gained experience in managing the disease, diagnosing ASF as early as possible and culling only a small number of hogs as a result. While ASF remains the top threat for the country’s farming sector, restocking will proceed rapidly in 2021’.

In its Q2 update, the bank said that ‘despite the pessimistic sentiments resulting from the current wave of ASF outbreaks, leading players have not stopped restocking and farm expansion’, while also noting that ‘herd losses due to new ASF outbreaks and health challenges are slowing the recovery’.

The situation in Vietnam, south east Asia’s leading pork producer, is also one of recovery, with the USDA reporting in its May 2021 Vietnam African Swine Fever update that the number of pigs culled in 2020 was 1.5% of the number culled in 2019, with the herd having reached just under 90% of its pre-ASF level

by December 2020.

Methionine set for strong recovery in 2021 Feedinfo’s Delphi Supply & Demand Database estimates that global methionine consumption increased by 2.9% in 2020.

Respectable growth of 6.5% is projected for 2021 in anticipation of a solid recovery in poultry consumption as restrictions on the foodservice sector are relaxed around the world.

Chinese poultry producers responded to the depletion in the Chinese swine herd in 2018-19 with rapid capacity expansion in 2019-20, hoping to take advantage of chicken’s competitive pricing compared to alternative sources of animal protein. The spread of COVID-19 from early 2020 and the introduction of widespread lockdowns to contain it suppressed domestic meat consumption, although China remained heavily dependent on imports of both pork and poultry throughout 2020.

Following the rapid recovery of the swine herd in 2020, Chinese poultry producers are likely to see the full impact of increased competition from the pork industry later in 2021, while also having to contend with an established flow of imports from producing countries that gained market share in

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Sam Weatherlake

2020. High raw material costs represent an additional burden, with corn prices having risen substantially in 2020-21.

In its China Poultry and Products Semi-Annual update, published in February 2021, the USDA said that ‘China’s poultry production is forecast to grow at a slower pace in 2021 as high feed prices, low poultry meat prices and swine herd rebuilding affect the sector’. The USDA forecasts that poultry output would increase by nearly 3% year-on-year, noting that as ‘pork is China’s preferred meat, an increase in pork supplies will limit demand growth in 2021’.

In its Q1 2021 Poultry Quarterly report, Rabobank warned that global poultry market conditions in 2021 ‘will be more challenging than we have seen in many years, with COVID-19 disruption, soft economic conditions, high feed prices, an exceptionally high-pressure avian influenza winter season and global oversupply’. Nevertheless, the bank took a comparatively bullish view of the Chinese industry’s prospects, forecasting in its Q2 update that chicken production would increase 10% year-on-year, with a relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions boosting foodservice and tourism demand in H2 2021. However, the bank noted that ‘ASF recovery could lead to an oversupply of poultry in China and Vietnam’.

While the recovery of the Vietnamese pork sector represents a challenge to the poultry industry, Rabobank has nevertheless projected that chicken production will increase by 15% in 2021, with demand for imports set to fall as a result. Reduced output was recorded across much of south east Asia in 2020 in response to lower consumption, with export-oriented Thailand hit particularly hard. The Indian poultry sector also experienced a difficult year. The slump coincided with a trend for pork producers to shift to poultry where possible following the devastation in their swine herds caused by ASF.

SUPPLY & DEMAND PRO LAUNCHED IN JULY THE Delphi Supply & Demand Database is an independent analytics tool launched in November 2020 and most recently updated in May 2021. It is part of Feedinfo’s Supply & Demand Pro service, which launched in July and which gives global capacity, production, trade and consumption data for the following most sought-after feed additives: lysine, threonine, methionine, vitamin A, vitamin E, and vitamin B2. To see Supply & Demand Pro in action, request a demo here.

SUMMER 2021 | 19

INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVES | Sponsored Feedinfo spoke to Dawn Overby, Danisco Animal Nutrition’s global segment manager for animal health about the company’s multi-strain probiotic Enviva® PRO.

Probiotic marks dedication to global turkey growth

T

urkey production might be a relatively small segment of the overall global poultry market, but for Danisco Animal Nutrition (IFF) it is one not to be neglected.

The company is currently focusing on opportunities to improve bird health and performance using its multi-strain probiotic, Enviva®PRO. Originally developed for use in broiler and layer production, Enviva®PRO’s blend of three Bacillus probiotic strains has been proven to improve feed conversion ratios, reduce growth of health-challenging bacteria and balance gut and immune function in turkeys as well.

Dawn Overby explains how it works and how it supports the company’s dedication to turkey production worldwide.

[Feedinfo] Tell us about the history of Enviva® PRO. When did the product first launch in broilers/layers? Where is it being used in turkeys?

[Dawn Overby] Danisco Animal Nutrition (IFF) started investing in microbial-based products for animal nutrition through an acquisition in 2008. This gave us a library of strains which were used to make customised products according to our gut sampling service. We continued to use this business model in the US for poultry – including turkeys – and it developed into our customised Enviva CSI gut health solution, a product that remains an important part of our portfolio today.

It was then a question of using our extensive gut analysis to determine the best probiotic blend for the international poultry market, a strategy that led to the successful launch of Enviva®PRO. Today it is used in over 50 countries around the world and we are awaiting final EC authorisation of the product following the positive EFSA approval this May to extend its use in turkeys to the EU later this year.

Dawn Overby

20 | SUMMER 2021

[Feedinfo] Give us an overview of Danisco’s ambitions in the turkey market. How big do you

estimate the market to be? How important is Europe when it comes to global production of turkey?

[Dawn Overby] We consider turkeys to be an important subspecies of poultry, with unique needs compared to broilers or layers, and this understanding is reflected in our approach to the market. According to FAOSTAT, over 5.3 million tonnes of turkey meat was processed globally in 2019, compared to 133m for poultry, but we view turkeys as an exciting opportunity regardless of the difference in scale. The key is to align our ambitions with the dynamics of the market, knowing that the US is the top turkey-producing country, while within Europe – currently ranked as the second largest market – Germany, France, Poland, Italy and Spain make up 90% of the region’s overall output.

[Feedinfo] What are the advantages of using Enviva® PRO in turkeys? How does the product work?

[Dawn Overby] The first 21 days post-hatch are a critical time for gut development in turkeys, so it is important to establish a good microbiota as soon as possible to give the birds a strong start in life. Enviva®PRO drives the natural maturation by promoting a positive microbiota and guarding against colonization by non-beneficial bacteria – leading to positive outcomes in terms of flock performance and livability.

Enviva®PRO is a three strain Bacillus probiotic isolated from poultry and their environment, of which two are actually from turkey litter. All were carefully selected for their ability to show significant growth reduction across diverse Clostridium perfringens and E. coli isolated from poultry — both key challenges for turkeys. It also contributes to a favourable nutribiotic state by balancing nutrition, microbiome and gut and immune function, enabling the bird to focus on growth.

[Feedinfo] What kinds of research have you carried out demonstrating the efficacy of Enviva® PRO? And how does this differ when the product is applied in turkeys rather than broilers?

[Dawn Overby} Enviva®PRO has been the subject of extensive research in over 40 studies, resulting in at least 38 technical reports focused on performance outcomes in broilers. A number of trials carried out in the EU, for example, show improvements in feed conversion ratio of up to 3.3% and weight gain of 3.8%. Importantly, our studies with turkeys also

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Sponsored | INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVES demonstrate similar significant increases in the same performance parameters.

The production cycle of turkeys is significantly longer than broilers: generally around 16-19 weeks instead of five-six weeks, although the final range can vary according to individual market and commercial objectives. This means that turkeys are exposed to conditions in the barn for a greater period of time and makes litter quality even more of a priority.

There is also a fundamental difference in terms of vulnerability to coccidiosis. While turkeys can get this protozoal disease, due to the species of Eimeria that affects the turkeys it is typically more of a feed efficiency issue rather than a threat to viability. In addition, turkey diets start off higher in protein and amino acids and lower in energy than broilers, but this changes as the bird moves through the production cycle. By the end, diets can be much higher in fibre than would be seen in broiler rations.

That said, turkeys and chickens do have a lot of similarities.

For both species, the early bird phase is critical and there are commonalities in the type of bacteria present. Plus, the common goal for producers is to create a favourable nutribiotic state as early as possible. As coccidia disrupt this development in both broilers and turkeys, technologies like Enviva®PRO can help the birds navigate this challenge while helping the development of a more favourable gut microbial community.

[Feedinfo] What can you tell us about Danisco’s dedication to turkey? Can you give any examples of how you are prioritising this segment in terms of resources, research and development attention and further product authorisations?

[Dawn Overby] It is important for us to offer new feed solutions for the entire poultry industry and the turkey segment is no exception. By working closely with our customers in highproducing countries, we are able to tailor our solutions to meet their needs. At PSA 2021 (the Poultry Science Association annual meeting), for example, we will be presenting a field evaluation of our protease Axtra PRO in commercial turkeys.

The first 21 days post-hatch are a critical time for gut development in turkeys, according to Dawn Overby.

ENVIVA® PRO CONTRIBUTES TO A BALANCED MICROBIOTA Three unique strains show significant growth reduction of up to ~98% across diverse Clostridium perfringens isolated from turkeys in in vitro test.

100% 80% 60% 40%

BS2084

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BS8

AVERAGE

16680-1

18673-1

18671-5

18670-1

18664-3

18658-1

18656-2

36121-03

36119-04

36119-02

36121-01

36120-02

36118-03

34953-03

34952-02

34951-02

34950-02

34947-02

34945-03

34944-02

34942-03

34923-03

34922-03

34921-03

34909-03

34908-03

34907-04

34906-04

0%

94905-01

20%

34904-01

GROWTH REDUCTION (%)

SOURCE: DANISCO ANIMAL NUTRITION (IFF)

120%

BS15AP4

SUMMER 2021 | 21

SECTION SUB-SECTION PRRS As researchers learn about feed-based transmission potential, a virulent new PRRS form emerges.

New PRRS strain hitting US pork producers

S

wine producers in North America, Europe and Asia have been battling porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) for more than 30 years now. In the US it has been estimated that the disease is responsible for hundreds of millions of dollars in losses per year as it kills piglets, causes abortion in sows and leaves the herd susceptible to other infections.

However, even in regions habituated to the damage the PRRS virus can cause, this has been seen as a bad year for PRRS in America.

Many attribute that impression to the increased prominence of a new strain of the virus, which has hit important pork-producing states such as Minnesota hard.

The emergence of a new strain is no surprise for experienced observers in the swine health industry, who have long noted the cyclical nature of the disease. Dr Scott Dee, of Pipestone Veterinary Services in Minnesota, calls it the ‘PRRS clock’. As he tells it, the PRRS virus mutates easily as it goes through pigs and can be counted on to manifest in a new, unusually virulent form somewhat regularly in the US. “If you go back to the original PRRS virus of, say, 1988, about every eight years it appears there’s a new variant.” Around 1996, he says, there was a strain with the three-digit identifier 1-4-2: “A new virus, very virulent as compared to 2-5-2 [the previous one], it was killing sows, so it presented in different ways and we called it atypical because it was so much more virulent.” This was followed by strain 1-8-4 around 2004: “Highly virulent, killing more sows, killing more pigs and we learned it could spread by the air.” Strain 1-7-4 in about 2012: “It was highly virulent, you have hundreds of abortions and higher mortality post-weaning.”

And now, in the 2020-2021 season, the strain 1-4-4. “So, this actually is right on time. It should not be an unexpected observation, that we’re dealing with yet another highly virulent variant of this virus; it’s just the nature of the beast,” adds Dee. Moreover, he says, while this particular version has a few novelties, including somewhat higher mortality in post-weaned pigs (its predecessor strain might have been responsible for post-weaning

22 | SUMMER 2021

PRRS is responsible for hundreds of millions of dollars in losses per year as it kills piglets, causes abortion in sows and leaves the herd susceptible to other infections.

“1-4-4 is clearly a new variant, highly pathogenic and the PRRS situation is not stable” DR SCOTT DEE mortality rates of around 15-20%, while he estimates that strain 1-4-4 has up to 30% for post-weaned pigs) the new mutant can be expected to follow the same trajectory as its predecessor, by self-attenuating.

“If it wipes out all its hosts, it will go extinct. So, at first it is extremely virulent, but in the end it’s the same old story, the viruses change on their own.”

Transmission Of course, this is certainly not an argument for complacency around a serious pathogen. Still, as Dee adds: “Sometimes when these new strains emerge, we can learn new things.”

In his case, these new findings have largely focused on the routes of transmission of the virus.

“We determined and published that [virus 1-8-4] is easily spread by aerosol transmission. And with 1-7-4 we learned not so long ago that it could be spread through the feed,” he says.

“I experienced a field case of 1-7-4 in feed and then reproduced transmission through feed with 1-7-4 very consistently.”

Now, it is important to keep this discovery in perspective. As Dee freely admits, he believes conventional transmission sources, such as improperly cleaned vehicles, are certainly a much bigger risk when it comes to the spread of PRRS than the risk posed by

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airborne virus; meanwhile, the risk posed by infected feed is even lower than that.

“I don’t think [feed-borne transmission] is a frequent event, compared to contaminated transport or airborne, but it’s one of those factors,” he adds. “[On farms in regions] where there’s very little hog density and yet they get infected, how does that happen? If their air is filtered and their transport is clean, perhaps the feed route is playing more of a role there.”

Keeping pigs safe Vaccination, of course, remains the first line of defence against the PRRS virus. Meanwhile, as the virus evolves new ways to spread and the industry learns more about these new modes of transmission, the development of other techniques to control PRRS has been a subject of interest for those at the forefront of swine health. Air filtration, for example, has been one key to managing this risk and according to Dee’s observations, it has become quite common over the last two decades to filter facilities housing high-value animals like breeding sows.

Another emerging idea (which Dee himself has been heavily involved in investigating) is treating the feed with additives such as formaldehyde, organic acid blends, essential oils, or other solutions to help mitigate the risk of viral spread through feed, including PRRS virus. Although cautioning that this is an off-label use for these additives, he is encouraged by the results so far; recalling the results of research published last year, he says that for nearly all the mitigants studied, “pigs performed better when they were on those diets than pigs on non-mitigated diets when challenged with three viruses [including PRRS].”

Dee is also encouraged by the US feed industry’s efforts to comprehend and get ahead of the threat of pathogens being spread through the feed supply.

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“The feed industry, I think, has done a really good job of stepping up and trying to better bio-secure the feed mill. I think they’ve done a good job of understanding the risk, [taking] it seriously, working hand-in-hand with the swine industry and the veterinary profession.”

While he is most familiar with the evolutions in the US context, he adds that a slow awakening to the threat of in-feed pathogen spread is taking place in many parts of the world, with countries such as Canada and Australia having national programmes for managing feed imports and the European Feed Safety Authority coming out with a scientific opinion on feed presenting a low, but present, risk for spreading African swine fever (another viral disease) throughout the European Union.

Overall, he paints a picture of an evolving global opinion on the threat of feed-borne viruses: “I think there’s enough data that says it is a low risk, but it cannot be ignored.”

Impact While the PRRS stakes are high for swine operators on the front lines of this disease and interesting developments are happening on the research front in terms of PRRS transmission and mitigation, what does all this PRRS news mean for the global pork supply?

Frankly, in Dee’s estimation, any impacts from PRRS in terms of overall pork volumes would likely be short-term and limited in scale.

While the disease certainly can have dramatic impacts on individual farms, which might go weeks without weaning piglets because of abortion or pre-weaning mortality, he is sceptical that the disease will have a significant impact on the US’ swine population.

“1-4-4 is clearly a new variant, highly pathogenic and the PRRS situation is not stable. However, as we have in the past, we just have to give it time, develop the science, conduct the epidemiological investigations, improve our biosecurity, keep vaccinating and we will win the battle,” he says.

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SECTION SUB-SECTION COVID-19 VACCINE Fears of mutant strains of SARS-CoV-2 sparked culls of millions of animals.

Russia develops COVID-19 vaccine to protect animals

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OVID-19 has been a human tragedy of epic proportions and attention has rightfully focused on the millions of human lives lost. However, the disease has also led to the early deaths of millions of farmed animals and dealt a crippling blow to operators in an oftenoverlooked part of the livestock industry.

In Denmark, the world’s largest producer of mink, the decision was made to cull the entire mink population to prevent the spread of the virus and its further mutations. The Danish mink industry, worth almost $1 billion in 2019, was supplied by over 1,000 farms. In total almost 17 million minks were culled in the country, in what the prime minister later admitted was a rushed plan without legal basis. However, when tested, seven different mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 virus were detected.

Although the most noteworthy, mink are not the only domesticated animals known to be susceptible to COVID-19.

Limited numbers of cases have been recorded in domestic pets, as well as big cats and great apes in zoos. It is believed in all these recorded cases that the animals would have contracted the pathogen after contact from a human carrying the virus. In most cases animals exhibit mild symptoms, if any, and usually recover in a few days.

Despite SARS-CoV-2’s presence in animals being deemed by scientists to have a negligible impact on the continued spread of Limited numbers of cases of COVID-19 have been recorded in domestic pets.

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COVID-19 between humans, public health experts are concerned by the possibility of new and exotic mutations of the disease.

Mutations notably occur during interspecies transmission of a pathogen and have the potential to resist vaccines already in existence.

Moreover, while the exact source of the outbreak remains unknown, transmission from an animal to humans is still believed to be the most likely cause. Of human infectious diseases 60% are zoonotic, meaning they are found first in another animal, according to the OIE.

Animal vaccine development In response, a vaccine has been fully developed to help prevent the spread of the virus among animals and, more relevantly, the transmission of the virus from animals to humans.

On March 31 the Russian Federal Center for Animal Health, a subunit of the federal service for veterinary and phytosanitary supervision Rosselkhoznadzor, confirmed it had produced the world’s first registered prophylactic to protect animals against the SARS-CoV-2 virus, after starting development in October 2020.

The new vaccine, called Carnivac-Cov, distributed its first batch of 17,000 doses at the end of April to state and private veterinary clinics across Russia, although total inoculation figures have not been shared yet. The vaccine, which is administered in two doses about 21 days apart, costs 500 rubles (around US$7) for the full treatment.

The vaccine works in much the same way as a human vaccine, whereby an inactive virus is administered in a small dose to encourage the body to produce specialised antibodies. Trials showed it provoked an immune response in 100% of cases across all species tested. Once inoculated, animals will have virusneutralising antibodies for a minimum of six months.

According to Rosselkhoznadzor, there has been strong demand from pet owners, breeders and other animal owners in Russia and from abroad.

“About 20 organisations are ready to negotiate registration and supply of the vaccine to their countries. The file for registration abroad, in particular in the European Union, is under preparation and will be promptly used for the registration process,” the Russian authority said in a statement at the end of April.

In the US, animal health firm Zoetis has announced that it is also developing a vaccine to protect animals from SARS-CoV-2 virus. The Zoetis vaccine, which was initially developed for cats and dogs, has been tested successfully on pets, as well as on great apes at the San Diego Zoo. Zoetis is in discussions with the United States Department of Agriculture about a path for a conditional approval for use in the US.

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October 27-28 | Geneva, Switzerland

SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE ANIMAL NUTRITION & FEED INDUSTRY Finally meet your peers face to face again to: Hear from thought-provoking speakers from within and outside of the ag sector

Enjoy an interactive programme developed by our advisory board of industry veterans

Access Feedinfo Connect – the digital event platform that offers year-round networking and exclusive content

Gather with other leaders from the animal nutrition & feed industry in a COVID-19-safe environment

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SECTION SUB-SECTION ASF VACCINES Untangling the progress on an ASF vaccine and understanding the challenges.

Finish line in sight for ASF vaccine?

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here are reasons to believe, 100 years after African swine fever (ASF) was discovered, a safe and effective vaccine for the viral disease could be imminent.

A vaccine aims to teach an animal’s immune system to recognise a virus and mount an immune reaction. Different categories of vaccines might present the immune system with a different aspect of the virus in order to do that. Much of the research on ASF virus is focused on two

ILLEGAL VACCINES IN the first months of 2021, new and less virulent strains of ASF popped up in China. The fact that these strains were missing particular genes that had been identified as key to attenuating the virus suggested strongly that these mutant strains were the result of illicit, unapproved vaccines. China’s Global Times cites media reports claiming that vendors had spread false information about the Harbin Veterinary Research Institute vaccine to convince farmers to purchase the black market products.

There is concern that less virulent forms of ASF will be able to spread further without being detected and in the absence of a vaccine, early detection and removal of infected animals is key to keeping the virus under control.

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different types of vaccine technology: live attenuated vaccines (LAVs) and subunit vaccines.

Live attenuated virus In a live attenuated vaccine, as the name would suggest, the vaccine includes a living virus, but the virus has been weakened to prevent it from causing serious illness. These are sometimes also known as ‘modified live vaccines’ (MLVs) and are relatively inexpensive to produce.

As early as the 1960s, Spain and Portugal conducted field trials of LAVs for ASF, but these were ultimately unsuccessful, as they induced chronic forms of the disease and had safety problems. This underlines a fundamental difficulty with this type of vaccine, even with today’s much more advanced biotechnology tools: it is tricky to attenuate the ASF virus enough that it does not cause safety concerns or side effects that are unacceptable from an animal welfare perspective, while still allowing it to replicate enough to induce an immune response.

In its 2017 Blueprint and Roadmap on the possible development of a vaccine for ASF1, the African Swine Fever EU Reference Laboratory emphasised this point about the safety of ASF LAVs: “An optimal equilibrium between attenuation and infection capability should be reached in order to obtain a safe and efficacious vaccine. Too much attenuation could lead to non-pathogenic viruses that are non-efficient for vaccine purposes, but too low attenuation would result in avoiding its use in the field for safety reasons.”

And yet, in spite of the historic difficulties with this concept, the most promising ASF vaccine candidates today are LAVs. One much-discussed step forward came early last year when researchers at the USDA’s Plum Island Animal Disease Center and its academic research partners found that the deletion of the I177L gene caused complete attenuation of the virus in the most prevalent strain in Asia and Europe (ASFv Georgia strain)2.

According to the office of communication for the USDA’s Agricultural Research Service in January 2021, ‘the team has currently licensed four different ASF vaccine candidates There are reasons to believe a safe and effective vaccine for the African swine fever could be imminent.

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ASF VACCINES ON THE RADAR: USDA ARS Plum Island Animal Disease Center (PIADC) Developed an ASF vaccine candidate, ASFV-G-ΔI177L, by deleting the I177L gene from the genome of ASFV strain Georgia (ASFV-G; the strain causing most damage across Eurasia) as documented in research published in early 2020.

Is now understood to be licensing the technology to various companies worldwide to support the development of a commercially-available ASF vaccine.

GOOD TO KNOW: The PIADC team’s contributions to an ASF vaccine do not end there. This year, it announced a breakthrough in producing the attenuated virus in a cell line, which represents progress on a knotty production problem.

It has also been testing its vaccine candidate’s efficacy via the oral-nasal route for potential vaccination of wild boar.

ON THE RADAR: NAVETCO

ON THE RADAR: Zoetis

The partially state-owned National Veterinary Joint Stock Company of Vietnam (NAVETCO) announced in January 2021 that it was testing a vaccine alongside the Department of Animal Health with the aim of beginning commercial production as early as Q2 of this year (later pushed back to Q3). This vaccine is understood to be based on the US research into I177L, as the Plum Island research team has confirmed that NAVETCO is a licensee of their technology.

This spring the Philippine Department of Agriculture announced ASF vaccine trials in cooperation with US-based animal health leader Zoetis. In the company’s Q1 2021 results call in early May, Zoetis predicted a ‘multi-year time frame’ for the development of an ASF vaccine solution.

GOOD TO KNOW: Consulted by Feedinfo in late-June, NAVETCO said that the potential vaccine had not yet been licensed and no timetable was available for when this could be expected.

to commercial partners for further development’3. One licensee, Vietnam’s Navetco, asserted in January that it has carried out trials of a vaccine and that it might rollout the vaccine commercially this year (this was originally forecast

by Q2 in January of this year4, then moved back to Q3 in an announcement in June5; no information could be given about the timing of a commercial release when Feedinfo consulted the company in late-June.)

Other research teams have reported progress on different sorts of LAVs for ASFv, including at the European Union Reference Laboratory for ASF, the Centro de Investigación en Sanidad Animal (INIA-CISA) in Madrid, Spain, whose researchers have tested the use of a naturally attenuated virus to inoculate wild boar6, and at the Harbin Veterinary Research Institute (part of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences), where a vaccine based around the deletion of seven genes is being explored7. As of February of this year, the Harbin vaccine was still in trials, with no timeline for commercial release, as reported by Bloomberg8.

In the UK, The Pirbright Institute is another leader in ASF vaccine research. In an interview with Feedinfo, The Pirbright’s group leader of ASF vaccinology, Dr Chris Netherton, outlined the institute’s efforts in this area: “Work on MLVs is a focus of

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GOOD TO KNOW: Zoetis was known to be a licensee of USDA ARS technology regarding attenuation of ASF via three different genes as of September 2019. It is not known whether it is also a licensee of the most recent breakthrough concerning the deletion of the I177L gene.

Dr Linda Dixon’s African Swine Fever Virus Group and involves identifying viral genes responsible for causing disease and deleting them from the ASFv genome. These are then tested in pigs for safety and effectiveness. Dr Dixon has published a number of papers on specific and novel methods for their production9, as well as characterising cell lines suitable for their growth10.”

Subunit vaccines – a more distant dream Meanwhile, in subunit vaccines, instead of a living but weakened virus, there is only a part of a virus – often an external protein, or a couple of proteins. The idea is to include enough of the virus to induce an immune response. However, this approach requires in-depth understanding of the different individual proteins of the virus and ASFv is a big virus, with many proteins to study.

Up until now, some subunit vaccines for ASF have been tested experimentally, but it is understood they have not conferred enough protection, with the EU’s 2017 BPRM for ASF vaccine11 stating: “The protective potential of the induced antibodies [proved] controversial, DNA and peptide-based and viral vectored vaccines have been shown to induce a specific ASFv immune response involving antibodies and/or T-cells, but

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SECTION SUB-SECTION ASF VACCINES WHY HAS A VACCINE TAKEN SO LONG TO DEVELOP? IN part, this can be understood as a function of the resources that ASF research could command. As pointed out by Dr Jishu Shi, professor in the laboratory of vaccine immunology at Kansas State University and director of the US-China Center for Animal Health, back when the ASF virus haunted Western Europe in the second half of the 20th century, the shape of the industry was different; pig production was much more local and the stakes were significantly smaller.

“In those days, the production was not that intensive, the scale of the economic impact was not [as big] as today, when you have thousands or tens of thousands of pigs on a single farm, so the importance of this disease has changed over time.”

Low priority

Meanwhile, according to some, during the period between the virus’ eradication from mainland Europe and its arrival in China, ASF appears to have been a low priority for well-funded labs in the West, with a paper by Bosch-Camós, López, and

to date resulted only in a partial protection against challenge.

Further work will be needed in order to identify both the antigens to be included in a potential subunit vaccine and the optimal immune mechanisms to be triggered after vaccination in order to confer solid protection against ASFv.” From a theoretical perspective, subunit vaccines have several advantages compared with LAVs, explained Dr Netherton.

“Subunit vaccines essentially avoid the complications associated with handling an infectious pathogen such as ASFv,” he said. There is no chance of a virus being insufficiently attenuated and causing disease, or of mutating into a new strain of the disease, because, unlike with an LAV, you do not have a whole virus, just virus parts.

Similarly, for countries which are currently ASF-free, it would be essential that one be able to distinguish whether a pig had actually had the illness or had simply been vaccinated – a concept known as differentiating infected from vaccinated animals (DIVA).

“Subunit vaccines are DIVA-compliant by design. It may be possible to engineer DIVA-compliant MLVs for African swine fever, but none have been reported as yet,” he said.

Finally, there is the question of ease of growth: “MLVs have to be grown in primary porcine macrophages rather than defined cell lines, which are more reliable,” added Dr Netherton

ON THE RADAR: Harbin Veterinary Research Institute Clinical trials of a Harbin ASF vaccine took place in late-2020 and further trials were reportedly still needed in February 2021.

GOOD TO KNOW: Reports in early 2020 had this team working on the safety and efficacy of a vaccine based on viruses with seven deleted genes.

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Rodriguez, of CReSA, calling the virus’ presence in Africa ‘historically neglected’ and saying development of a vaccine had been ‘traditionally unattractive’12. This matters, because ASFv research is expensive to conduct, as it requires the facilities of the highest biosecurity level, which are costly both to build and to operate. Of course, the virus’ arrival into a market which produced half of the world’s pigs abruptly changed that calculus and drove ASF high up the priorities list for researchers around the world. But, as Dr Shi added: “You need people – scientists – and research takes time.”

However, there are also several biological reasons why the search for an ASF vaccine has been so difficult: the virus is not only quite dangerous, but it is also big, genetically diverse, talented at evading the immune system and difficult to replicate. Moreover, there are additional challenges imposed by the desire to differentiate between animals which have been sick/infected with the virus and animals which have merely been vaccinated, something which is essential for countries which want to export their pork.

“MLVs are currently at a much more advanced stage than subunit vaccines as they induce excellent protection against virulent ASFv” DR CHRIS NETHERTON (although on the last point, the aforementioned work in this area by his colleague, Dr Linda Dixon, represents progress on the question of a cell line which might be used for the production of MLVs).

But, of course, we do not live in a theoretical world wherein we have several different vaccines and can select from among them. While several teams have shown intriguing progress on different types of subunit vaccines – Dr Netherton cited the DNA vaccination work done by Fernando Rodriguez’s group at CReSA in Barcelona, as well as work on vectored vaccines more generally by Kansas State University’s Waithaka Mwangi and Robert Rowland – in practice, he says: “MLVs are currently at a much more advanced stage than subunit vaccines as they induce excellent protection against virulent ASFv and several are currently in-field trials.”

Moreover, as Dr Jishu Shi, of Kansas State University, observed, the swine industry has been dedicating resources to the porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv) for some 30-40 years and the state of the art remains

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SECTION SUB-SECTION ASF VACCINES

Research teams have reported progress on different sorts of live attenuated vaccines for ASFv.

a LAV vaccine – it could be that a subunit vaccine for ASFv is equally a long way off.

Multiple strains – multiple vaccines?

This is all compounded by the fact that there are, in fact, several different strains of ASF virus and it remains to be seen how well a vaccine derived for one strain will function against another.

Dr Netherton said: “This is another major focus of our research. Our models of the protective immune response were based on historical strains from Spain and Portugal collected in the 20th century. These isolates are genotype I and therefore our work started with subunit vaccines containing genotype I sequences. Genetically related viruses are circulating in Western Africa and led to the loss of thousands of pigs in Nigeria; we would anticipate our vaccine should be effective against these African viruses.”

However, when it comes to applying Pirbright’s work to other genotypes of the virus, much will depend on eight different ASFv genes which are the focus of Dr Netherton’s subunit vaccine research, in which they were assessed for their ability to protect pigs when delivered by two types of harmless vaccine viruses (an adenovirus prime followed by modified vaccinia Ankara (MVA) boost).

“Some of the eight genes are fairly well conserved among different strains of ASFv; however, others are not and, therefore, some parts of the vaccine may need tailoring. The virus currently circulating in Eurasia [outside of Sardinia] is genotype II and we are looking to see if the immune responses to our genotype I vaccine recognises genotype II virus,” he explained. “We are also testing a genotype II vaccine.”

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ON THE RADAR: The Pirbright Institute Teams at Pirbright are working on both a live attenuated vaccine and a subunit vaccine and are working on both genotype I (previously found in several parts of the world including Europe, but then eradicated; still found in Africa) and genotype II (spreading in Eurasia since 2007).

GOOD TO KNOW: In its own words: “Scientists at The Pirbright Institute have been working on understanding the virus since 1963, prior to its spread to Europe and Asia from Africa and is one of the few institutes that continues to have an ASF research programme.”

It is likely, therefore, that while we may soon see the first teams cross the finish line in the long and gruelling race for an ASF vaccine, there will ultimately be several different winners, with the market accommodating several different vaccines depending on a variety of factors including the strains from which a herd is under threat, the cost versus risks of deploying a given type of vaccine technology and the availability of a given product under different regulatory regimes which must take into account DIVA status along with other commercial and safety considerations.

Dr Shi said: “[The best vaccine] really depends on what you have, what’s available, what’s affordable. Even a nonDIVA vaccine would still allow protection to continue with much less loss.”

References for this report are available here.

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SHIPPING Container shipping disruption driving up prices and lead times.

US feed additive inventories pressured

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eed additive importers bringing material in from China were faced with yet another supply chain problem in June. This one started at Yantian and neighbouring Shekou ports in southern China, where a COVID-19 outbreak caused significant reductions in operations at one of China’s largest container ports.

Increased congestion and vessel delays were the result, according to shipping company Maersk.

Key feed additive export ports from China are Qingdao, Shanghai, Yantai, Dalian and Tianjin. Shenzhen is not typically crucial to the feed additive sector; however, importers must now monitor all port and container developments within China closely.

Shipping analyst Jon Monroe said: “Any material flare-up of the pandemic in China has the potential of delaying the resolution of the current severe bottleneck and capacity issues in container shipping into next year.”

Before the pandemic, events such as a container vessel breakdown or a short-term port closure were considered a minor disturbance. However, given current market conditions, one may expect more significant implications than usual due to the gridlock in the global container shipping industry.

“Every sign of the Suez Canal effect here,” a North American importer said. “Going to see more delays, less space and higher rates on a global basis due to Yantian’s current congestion issues.”

Cargo transfer Many of the importers moving product from Yantian are caught up in the terminal problems and have started to transfer their cargo to Shanghai, Ningbo and other ports in East China for shipment. These movements are impacting drayage, port congestion and truck availability.

“We are seeing quite a few containers being diverted from Yantian to Nansha. At a price of course,” Monroe said in early June.

“Drayage rates have doubled and finding truckers is becoming increasingly difficult. Longer wait times at terminals in South China has increased the dray cost and decreased the availability of truckers.

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The typical transit time for material from China to the US Midwest used to be 35 days. As of early June, this transit time was a minimum of 73 days.

“This bottleneck at one of China’s major export gateways will be troublesome into July. Count on it,” Monroe added.

The supply chain situation has deteriorated month by month since around July/August 2020 and shows no sign of abating.

It has been especially difficult for the transpacific routes, bringing material from East Asia to the US West Coast. As no vitamins are produced in the US, the US relies heavily on imports from China and Europe.

In January and February there was a retraction in bookings because customers were expecting rates to soften, but they never did. Purchasing picked up in March and April, but cargoes continued to be delayed.

Some essential feed additive imports have been bumped from ships and sat dockside until space became available, adding three to four weeks to already delayed delivery times.

The typical transit time for material from China to the US Midwest used to be 35 days from cargo ready date at origin until delivery at the destination warehouse. As of early June, this transit time was a minimum of 73 days.

Compounding the delays are rapidly increasing freight rates, which are quickly reaching parity with the cost of the goods being transported.

According to rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, spot rates for westbound containers in the last week of May were almost double what was charged at the end of March. Meanwhile, container rates in Europe climbed 57% in the first four months of the year, helped by a 30% surge from March to April.

Shipping analysts expect the logistic issues to persist as import demand remains strong across retail and wholesale sectors in the US. A vitamin and amino acid spot buyer said: “It is hard to say what Q3 and Q4 will look like, even if there are further delays. I expect many distributors and feed mills are planning accordingly and holding larger than normal inventories in case of additional delays.”

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SECTION SUB-SECTION ANIMAL HEALTH

The animal health sector has undergone fundamental changes that create new opportunities for investors and innovators.

Understanding M&A in livestock and pet health over the last several years.

A snapshot of animal health sector consolidation

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he global animal health market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 8.8% from 2021 to 2028 to reach US$99.51 billion by 2028, according to Grandview Research predictions. The market in the past few years has been marked by rapid consolidation and a shift in

structure.

It has traditionally been dominated by dedicated divisions of big pharmaceutical companies. But since Pfizer’s 2013 spin-off of the business now known as Zoetis, the sector has undergone fundamental changes that create new opportunities for investors and innovators.

In addition to the spin-offs, or in part because of them, there has been substantial consolidation in the animal health space. In 2014, the company that became Elanco Animal Health acquired Novartis Animal Health. That same year, Phibro Animal Health launched an IPO. In 2017, Boehringer Ingelheim acquired Merial – Sanofi’s animal health business – making it at the time the second-largest animal health company in the world.

Zoetis, Elanco and Phibro Animal Health are publicly traded companies. But Merck Animal Health and Merial remain divisions of their big pharma parents and privately held (Merck for the former, Boehringer Ingelheim for the latter). Other sector leaders such as Ceva Santé Animale, Virbac, Vetoquinol, IDEXX Laboratories and Covetrus are also privately held.

The market for animal health consists of two sub-sectors, companion animals (pets) and livestock, that respond to different market forces and the production animal segment dominated the global market with a revenue share of over 62% in 2020, still according to Grandview Research.

In the past four years alone the major animal health firms have made sizeable acquisitions and expanded their portfolios.

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One of the most significant changes Elanco announced since its spin-off from Eli Lilly in 2018 was its acquisition of Bayer Animal Health in 2019. The acquisition was completed in August 2020 and catapulted Elanco to the forefront of the industry. Meanwhile, Boehringer Ingelheim acquired Merial Animal Health from Sanofi in 2017, Phibro Animal Health bought Biotay in Argentina in 2017 and Osprey Biotechnics in 2019. And Zoetis has made no less than eight acquisitions over the past few years, half of which are in the veterinary diagnostics space.

Private equity The animal health sector has also been a favourite target of private equity for years, due in large part to low risk and good returns, especially in the pet care segment. And due to the COVID-19 pandemic, animal health market players themselves are increasingly open to the appeal of private equity backing.

However, the market for livestock-related animal health is also growing in response to concerns about zoonotic diseases (those which can be transmitted from animals to humans), management of disease outbreaks in large-scale farming operations and the need to increase livestock productivity to meet the increasing global demand for meat.

The livestock care segment of the animal health market is growing as the medical treatment of livestock is changing due to the move toward antibiotic-free animal protein production. Better diagnostics, electronic tracking of herds and genetic testing are also coming into the mix for raising livestock.

Also of note, farm animal welfare is an increasingly important issue for companies across all sectors of the food industry. This is driven by a range of factors, including regulation, consumer concern, pressure from animal welfare organisations on food business companies and their investors, retailers expecting their suppliers to comply with corporate

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ANIMAL HEALTH responsibility policies and the brand and market opportunities for companies that adopt higher farm animal welfare standards.

Yet, despite these drivers, farm animal welfare as a management issue is relatively immature. In a research note, BNP Paribas points out that investors are starting to play a more active role as they begin to recognise such issues may represent potential financial risks and opportunities for companies they invest in.

And finally, start-ups play a role too.

Cost-cutting measures The larger merger and consolidation events typically introduce corporate cost-cutting measures and can slow down innovation in labs because leaner budgets demand resources stay focused on only the most commercially ready products. As a result, the animal health market has moved beyond pure pharmaceuticals and vaccines and investors are increasingly supporting breakthrough technologies developed by smaller yet more agile and entrepreneurial businesses.

The leading animal health companies are also looking to start-ups and collaborators for innovation. These start-ups are bringing the same technologies that are transforming human health, such as biotech, genomics, artificial intelligence, cloud computing and big data, to animal health.

Two of the largest public-trading animal health firms recently summed up their aforementioned growth focuses, as well as their business trajectories for 2021 so far.

Zoetis said in early May that it was off to a very strong start to the year. CEO Kristin Peck said her company was executing on strategies

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for building on its pet care portfolio, expanding in key markets outside the US and accelerating growth in diagnostics.

She added: “In the first quarter, we grew our top line revenue at 21% operationally, our best quarter ever, with 25% operational growth internationally and 19% growth in the US.” Talking about the pet care and livestock care segments, she said: “In 2014, our companion animal business was 34% of our total revenue. Last year, it had grown to 55% based on the strength of our innovation and investment in growth and we see that continuing to expand. In livestock, the industry is in a more limited innovation cycle and we expect modest growth for the year. Livestock growth is tied closely to the pandemic and how quickly the foodservice industry recovers.”

Elanco Animal Health provided an update on the Bayer Animal Health acquisition in early May. CEO Jeff Simmons referred to four big decisions in the past two years: the Bayer Animal Health acquisition not long after the IPO, the transformation of the company’s distributor strategy, as well as changing commercial leadership and accelerating its restructuring.

He added: “Today, we are seeing the payoff from those choices and from the disciplined execution that I believe truly sets Elanco on a path to be a global animal health leader. Elanco started 2021 with better-than-expected sales, profits and EBITDA, building on the strong momentum our business has shown since we closed the Bayer acquisition in August 2020.”

According to Simmons, Elanco’s Q1 results reflect progress in several key areas, including the Bayer acquisition changing its revenue mix from 30% pet health and 70% farm animal to a 50:50 split.

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SECTION INTERVIEW SUB-SECTION Agrimoney editor-in-chief talks effects of COVID-19 and China on commodities.

Chinese demand drives grain and oilseed markets

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t the end of the day, many of the choices made by feed formulators come down to the grain and oilseed supply. The price and availability of different feedstuffs will determine the level of supplemental amino acids, enzymes and other feed additives used.

Interpreting the markets of these and other agro-commodities is the job of Feedinfo’s sister company Agrimoney, an independent market analyst providing investors a link to the food chain for commodities from corn to coffee.

Feedinfo spoke to Agrimoney editor-in-chief Mike Verdin for a look at the forces influencing production and trade in feed raw materials. Verdin began his career as a journalist working for prestigious names including the BBC and the Financial Times before starting Agrimoney in 2009 and running it as editor to this day.

The global impacts of COVID-19 Given the impact COVID-19 has had on almost all industries worldwide in the last year, Feedinfo wanted to get Verdin’s opinion on how the pandemic affected grains and oilseeds.

He says: “It is extraordinary how limited its impact has been overall. I can’t think of a country which hasn’t made an effort to prioritise food supplies.”

It should come as no surprise that food security is an essential political concern; however, Verdin believes that since the revolution in North Africa between 2008-2010 (often referred to as the Arab spring), governments have put greater pressure on the role of food security in preserving a nation in the face of crisis. As he put it: “People will put up with a lot of things, but they won’t put up with hunger.”

As a result, even while COVID-19 made itself felt in industries such as meat production in some areas (namely the US), grain and oilseed production was largely unaffected by the pandemic and in most cases production estimates are up year-on-year.

Despite the limited impact on production figures, though, it has still not been an easy ride for farmers around the globe who have struggled to find sufficient numbers of workers to help maintain and harvest crops.

Much of the harvesting work is completed by seasonal, foreign employees, usually from less affluent neighbouring nations, adds Verdin.

“In Malaysia, for example, 70-80% of palm oil workers are foreign seasonal workers. The Malaysian palm oil industry is so short of workers they are now looking to prisons to find sufficient numbers of people to work the palm fields.”

The other big impact has been on global freight and logistics.

“Logistics concerns came as a big surprise and had huge impacts on prices. China to US freight prices for some grains

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“Markets exist to match supply and demand as best they can and in China we have the largest market there with next to no transparency on what they require” MIKE VERDIN and oilseeds were 10 times higher than US to China prices at the same time. This led to boats returning to China empty, as opposed to backhauling products, so they could make the most of the high freight rates heading from China to the US.”

The power of Chinese demand China recently announced new guidelines for its animal protein producers to try and limit the use of corn and soy in animal feed, replacing it with high protein alternatives such as wheat and barley, as well as increasing reliance on feed additives.

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INTERVIEW

Grain and oilseed production was largely unaffected by the pandemic and in most cases production estimates are up year-on-year.

Asked how feasible this transition would be, Verdin says the two biggest issues would be cost and scale.

“I think money will always talk loudest. Rising corn prices in the current market are driving a change away from the grain right now.

But the financial aspect will always be the biggest driver to markets.”

Despite the real push behind other feed grains (for example, Reuters reports that in the 2020/2021 crop year, feed wheat displaced 40 million tonnes of corn and 4mt of soymeal), China is still expected to import four times as much corn this year than it did two years ago, up from around 7mt to close to 30mt by the end of the current season.

He adds: “I don’t think you can replace soymeal, especially not on the scale at which China consumes it.”

In its public announcement, the Chinese government suggested alternatives such as canola and flax meal, which Verdin agrees “are available and offer similar nutritional benefits, but they do not exist at the scale required.”

He suggests the rise in ethanol production across Asia will see an increase in distillers’ grains, “but the amounts are limited” and he would be sceptical about how far its adoption as a primary feed ingredient can go.

Lack of transparency makes adaptation difficult The other huge unknown surrounding the Chinese market for grain is the rebounding Chinese pig herd, since the 2018 African swine fever (ASF) outbreak slaughtered half of the 400m-strong herd.

Current estimates vary, but it is believed the herd is now back to between 70-90% of its original size and will continue to grow, up to a point.

“The Chinese pig herd will plateau at a higher level than it was pre-ASF, mainly because of the nationwide improvements to farms’ technology, biosecurity and a move away from small scale farming, which has resulted in better managed nutrition, as they move away from food scraps and the non-tailored animal diets of old.”

However, Verdin believes the lack of transparency from China surrounding its grains and oilseeds requirements is extremely problematic and even has the potential to inadvertently cause widespread hunger.

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“Markets exist to match supply and demand as best they can and in China we have the largest market there with next to no transparency on what they require.”

The Chinese demand for grains and oilseeds already goes a long way to dictating global supply. If those demands were to change suddenly, for example if Chinese corn imports were to fall fourfold in the next two years as opposed to climbing “we can end up with a huge surplus, collapsed prices and global volatility that will inevitably cause issues for other nations who can’t afford the fluctuating prices so easily.”

The likelihood of self-sufficiency Asked if China will ever be self-sufficient in grain and oilseed production (and to a larger extent food production as a whole), Verdin sees it as unlikely, as there would have to be a huge overhaul to current farming methods to make it possible, as well as a cultural shift away from animal protein in a country where the appetite for animal products is still growing rapidly.

Data from Bloomberg shows that China is home to 18% of the world’s population, but just 7% of its arable land, making it unfeasible for it to produce for its entire population.

However, from a geopolitical perspective, Verdin sees this as a positive.

“It is a good thing; as long as China has reliance on other nations to feed its population it is less likely to cause political concerns.”

For an example, Verdin points to the current dispute in trade between China and Australia, which has proved less injurious than many feared, he says, as China relies on inexpensive Australian imports.

Ultimately, Chinese hunger for grains and oilseeds is unlikely to decline any time soon. Increasing domestic demand for animal protein will continue to boost grain and oilseed production in the most productive nations (for example Latin America) and will continue to impact global production, prices and market volatility.

Finally, Verdin adds: “If China wants to be a responsible member of the international community it needs to have greater transparency and be more accurate in its grain stocks.”

SUMMER 2021 | 35

SECTION SUB-SECTION RECRUITMENT UPDATES

INDUSTRY MOVES Recent senior job moves within the global animal nutrition industry Kevin Sketcher was named managing director at UK poultry feed manufacturer 2AGRICULTURE in May. Andrew Burley will also join the board as commercial and technical director and Gavin Berry will assume the chief financial officer role at the firm.

DR ECKEL ANIMAL NUTRITION has appointed Guido Grassi as chief operations officer. Grassi has worked most recently as country head Thailand at Bayer and as aqua commercial head for the Asia-Pacific region at Elanco.

The board of directors of AG PROCESSING INC (AGP) has named Chris Schaffer as its chief executive officer and general manager effective August 1, 2021. Schaffer, who currently serves as AGP’s senior vice-president of ag products, will succeed current CEO Keith Spackler who earlier this year announced his plans to retire.

HUBBARD appointed Dr Zvezdan Kičeec as sales and technical manager for the Eastern Europe and CIS countries in June.

In June, AMLAN INTERNATIONAL named Saksake Pacharadit as the new regional sales manager for the Asia-Pacific region (APAC).

In April, AVIAGEN announced that Dr Kate Hayes had been named vice-president of veterinary services for North America.

BIORESOURCE INTERNATIONAL announced in April that Flemming Mahs would join its executive leadership team in the role of chief commercial officer.

CARGILL named Helene Ziv-Douki president of Cargill’s Aqua Nutrition business in April. Ziv-Douki, who joined Cargill in 2003, succeeds Pilar Cruz who was recently promoted to chief sustainability officer, a new role for the company.

COBB EUROPE’S John Vincent is stepping down as director of business development. Meanwhile, the Arkansas-based company also announced Brian Sorensen as its new global senior director of human resources.

Christina Nielsen will return to the DLG GROUP as Group CFO and will become part of the executive board. The move was announced in June and will be effective on October 1.

IFEEDER announced the addition of Lara Moody as its new executive director, effective April 30.

NOVUS INTERNATIONAL has appointed Alfred Zimmerman as chief innovation officer and named Uwe Ranft chief strategic marketing and technology officer in April.

Zamira François joined NUQO as sales manager for France in June.

OCEAN HARVEST TECHNOLOGY appointed Dr Hadden Graham as managing director in April.

Dr Graham has over 30 years’ experience in animal feed businesses globally.

In April, TROUW NUTRITION appointed Michael Brebbia as director of global operations, reporting directly to CEO Saskia Korink and becoming a member of the Trouw Nutrition leadership team.

TYSON FOODS announced chief operating officer Donnie King has been named president and chief executive officer, with the previous president and CEO Dean Banks leaving for personal reasons.

UNIBIO welcomed a new CEO in May: David Henstrom, a long-time Cargill hand. The appointment follows the decision of Henrik BuschLarsen, the current CEO and member of the founding family, to step down from his role to pursue other business interests.

ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SERVICES z As part of our industry recruitment service, Feedinfo covers recent senior job moves within the global animal nutrition industry, helping industry colleagues keep up-to-date with new roles, board appointments and business changes. Please send any announcements to recruitment@feedinfo.com

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z In addition, organisations seeking to recruit specialist or senior staff can take advantage of Feedinfo’s recruitment service, which offers an audience of engaged and highly qualified animal nutrition specialists, managers and executives. For more details, contact our recruitment specialist, Dineo Komane at dineo.komane@agribriefing.com

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