Combined Associations League Report

1

Criterion for assessing the qualification for the Initiating Clubs of the C.A.L. Premiership The criterion for assessing the qualification of clubs to initiate the C.A.L premiership is based on a number of factors which support a sustainable presence an in turn can assist a commercial and competitive capacity into the long run : 

UEFA Coefficients both ten year and current season



Demographic area of club location



Club ground capacity



Accessible transport links i.e. Airports, Sea, Rail and Road



Current financial status i.e. Current Total Market Value



Historical decisions which may reflect the endeavour to operate and compete in such a league

2

The Objectives for establishing the C.A.L. Premiership 

 



To promote and strengthen less stronger clubs in the vicinity of Ireland,(inc. Ulster) and Scotland that are not in the top 200 clubs (UEFA ten year Coefficient) To install a competitive structure to increase youth development To enhance all three National Teams by installing competitive structures that enable youth development to perform at a challenging level To enable broadcasting companies to partake in the commercial development process by increasing public interest in having more competitive and entertaining structures



To create and sustain competitive capacity for the clubs taking part



To assist and enable weaker lower divisions clubs to compete



 



To enable Transport companies to partake in a frequent regional program (i.e. Aer Arann, Aer Lingus, Ryanair, Easyjet, Flybe, Norwegian Airlines U.K.) To create more employment both on the field and off the field To counter balance social problems (i.e. unemployment, drug abuse , alcohol abuse) in working class areas by creating goals To also enhance the Women’s teams within the same structure

3

Rating formula to qualify clubs for the Upper quartile of C.A.L Premiership Initiation The weighting of variables is based on the objective of producing the most able clubs to sustain And initiate the Combined Associations League, the fundamental variables which are considered to achieve the objectives within the formula are as ; Ground Capacity (weight) + Market Value*(weight)+ Previous Performance (weight)+ Surrounding Demopgraphics of Location(weight) +UEFA 10 Year Club Coefficient(Weight) Sum of weights

= Answer/Demographic Size weight

Market Value =

= Rank Rating Classifications for Weighting of variables Ground Capacity > 2,000 (.25) > 5,000(.5) > 10,000(.75) > 15,000(1) Market Value* > 20m (3) > 10m(0.5) > 5m(0.25)>2.5m(1.25) > 1m(0.625) > 500,000(0.3125) < 100,000(0.15625) Previous 2 year performance ; Preliminary Stages of Champions League 1 (2.75) , Group Stages of the Champions League 1 (4.25),

Preliminary Stages of Europa League 1 ( 2.65) , Group Stages Of Europa League 1 ( 2.85) , Knockout stages of Europa League 2 (3.5), Domestic League Champions 1 (1.5) Domestic League Runners up 1 (0.5) , Domestic Cup Winners 1 (0.25) Surrounding Demographics: <=>50,000(2.5) > 75,000(2) > 100,000(1.5) > 125,000(1)>150,000(0.5) UEFA 10 Year Cub Coefficient Ranking: > 150 (0.5) > 200 (1) >250 (1.5)>300(2)

Demographic Size Weights: <100K /100 , >100K/ 200 ,>200k/225, >400K/250, > 500k/300, >1m/350

(*All Market Value figures contrived from www.transfermarkt.com)

4

Rating formula to qualify clubs for the Upper quartile of C.A.L Premiership Initiation Example of rating process

Dundalk F.C. in 2018 , (note that the latest domestic and European results are taken into account before the previous year) 4,500 (.25) + StgÂŁ1.10m(0.625)+ 3(2.65+1.5+.0.25) + 39,004(0.5) + 373(2) = Ans/Demographic size Weight 7.775 = (C.A.L Qualifying Rank Rating) 96.8603 The ratio of Scotland: Northern Ireland: Republic of Ireland is sought to be maintained upon initiation Thus the initiating ratio is best found at 9:5:6 ;

Nine Scottish clubs , Five Northern Irish Clubs and Six clubs from the Republic of Ireland.

5

Scoring averages of clubs as per the Formula Sc or i ng Aver a ges of C.A.L Pr emi er Initiating Clubs as per the for mula Dundalk

Cliftonville FC Glenavon FC

350

Hibernian Aberdeen FC

300 250

Crusaders FC

Kilmarnock FC 200

Avg.182.88

150

Glentoran FC

Hearts

100 50 Linfield FC

0

Celtic

St. Johnstone FC

Rangers

Shamrock Rovers

Motherwell

St. Patricks Athletic

St. Mirren FC

Bohemians

Inverness CT

Derry City

Livingston FC

Cork City FC

Dundee Utd

Graph by Author

6

Range of C.A.L Premiership Initiating Clubs Score in a range of Averages based on previously presented formula* Dundalk Hibernian

Aberdeen FC Kilmarnock FC Hearts St. Johnstone FC Motherwell

St. Mirren FC Inverness CT Livingston FC Dundee Utd Cork City FC

Derry City Bohemians St. Patricks Athletic Shamrock Rovers Linfield FC

Glentoran FC Crusaders FC Glenavon FC Cliftonville FC

96.86023 135.1291 147.689 215.3915 141.9635 230.2322 165.8568 303.4434 262.5359 216.4318 163.3803 60.007 340.8886 138.5348 131.8831 125.1097 147.6837 257.6882 254.5144 78.64892 256.1932

350 175

* For full tallies counted via the formula please view appendix 1

100 50

(Rangers)

7

Compettition structure - C.A.L Premiership assessment Matrix (A Rough Guide)

UEFA 10 year Club Coefficient Ranking < 200th /> 600th

Current Financial Status not at risk of Administration in the Fiscal year

Ground Capacity > 3,500 /< 25,000

Demographic Location (inc.Adequate Transport links) > 5,000

8

Competition Structure - C.A.L Premiership: Twenty best Initiating Teams based on assessment criterion



Aberdeen



Dundee United



Hibernian



Cliftonville



Hearts



Crusaders



Inverness Caledonian Thistle



Glenavon



Kilmarnock



Glentoran



Livingston



Linfield



Motherwell



(St.Johnstone)



St. Mirren



Bohemians



Cork City



Derry City



Dundalk



Shamrock Rovers



St.Patrick’s Athletic

9

Current Average Market Value of each club in Comparison to English Premier League

Current Market Value of each club English Prem. Lge Av g. Market Value

16000000

15,95 Mill. â&#x201A;Ź 14000000 12000000 10000000 8000000

6000000

C.A.L Premier Av g. Market Value

4000000

3.8 Mill.â&#x201A;Ź

2000000 Scots& Irish Leagues current avg. mkt value

0

(Graph

by Author and numbers contrived and accounted for via Transfermrkt.com)

10

1.71 bn

900m

805m

753m 46m

70m

18.5m

?

(Deloitte; Annual Review of Football Finance,2017)

11

Average Attendance of Top Divisions represented in C.A.L Proprosal Avg.Attendances Scots, N.Irish & Irish Top Divisions 2017/2018

18 16

17.04

14 12 10 8

Without Old Firm 9.12

6 4 2

2.13

1.15

0 Scottish Premiership

LOI Ireland

Avg.Att 2017/18

N.I. Premiership

w/o Old F.

(Source:Transfermarkt.com)

With the Scottish Premiership trumping both Irish leagues due to it’s professional and widespread interest, the Irish Leagues within the C.A.L structure may attract more interest due to it’s increase in size and competitiveness thus returning more revenues, whilst upholding the other objectives of increasing Youth Development and improving the performance of the National Teams. In the event of larger games being played the use of the National Stadia in Dublin and/or other stadia fit for purpose may become available in the “one-off” event of a large game which would see a greater demand for tickets and bring more commercial activity to a location.

With the respect of other sports played in the different vicinities , a community effort may in the infrequent event , prevail. With greater interest the increase of broadcasting profits may also succeed as the British and Irish Broadcasters could benefit from such events taking place, thus returning more revenues to the clubs and sustaining the objectives of the overall C.A.L league model.

12

Match Day Revenue As it currently stands the Match day revenue disparity between the Old Firm clubs and the rest is astounding and clearly present the uncompetitive nature of the league as whole, which may reflect in the poor performance of the National League and create an uneven wealth distribution among clubs in the league. Thus it would suggest that due to the size of both Old firm clubs , it may yield greater financial reward for them to compete in the Premier League and/or Championship south of the border in England . The wage disparity is also an indication where the Old Firm clubs are relevant to financially. With a more competitive league (i.e. without the Old Firm) in the C.A.L model , this would add an incentive for fans to follow more adamantly thus lead to greater match day revenue relative to the proportion of club size, the additional effects of this wold create an atmosphere for younger onlookers to get involved in the game at street level and furthermore tackling the growing social and health problems that exist in the current locations represented by the C.A.L League clubs. This in turn leads to create an economic model which is relative to the income levels, population and attached to the locations of C.A.L based club representation.

Source: Priceoffootball.com 13

Proposed Economic Model to set Ticket Prices & Player Wages pegged against Income per household, Transport costs and unemployment rate

The variables to try and regulate and sustain the C.A.L Premiership into it’s initiation period of 7 years or more should adopt a cautious and measured set of financial parameters .

Staying to the famous quote by Jock Stein ;

"Without fans who pay at the turnstile, football is nothing. Sometimes we are inclined to forget that. The only chance of bringing them into stadiums is if they are entertained by what happens on the football field."

Ticket prices and player wages must not exceed certain ceilings if the C.A.L League is to establish a secure amount of operating capital and then develop thereafter within the lesser regulated free market. So from the outset holding fans and their capital sovereign to all other variables aims to be the founding principle of the formation with the other objectives of Youth Development following suit . Thus establishing an economic model as an Affidavit of Operations and cornerstone of economic behaviour is essential.

Example 1.

(Player wages <€100,000 per annum), (Matchday Ticket Price < £25/€28), v

(Avg. Income Disposable per household < £25k/€28), (Avg.flight ticket €70 return Edinburgh to Cork + Avg.Train Ticket return Edinburgh to Aberdeen £17.70/€19.82) Not including accommodation or expenditure to local businesses hosting matches.

With the advent of high frequency between both locales i.e. Ireland and Scotland (inc. Ulster) , the opportunity to invite package deals from transport carriers and also sponsorship becomes more incentivized. So the likes of Aer Arann ,Aer lIngus , Ryanair , Easyjet and FlyBe could benefit immensely from having a commercial stake and heavy involvement in the commercial running of the league . The model of regional air travel is guaranteed to reap financial rewards for all involved, however a widespread co-operative effort would be required from the Associations , Clubs, Large to Medium business interests and ultimately the fans.

14

Wage disparity that reflects the uncompetitive nature of the current SPFL with the Old Firm

Source: priceoffootball.com

The clear wage disparity and match day income differences from the Old Firm to the other clubs represented in the C.A.L League model presents an astounding gap.

Within this differences lies negative impacts such as diminishing interest from the fans which furthermore leads to less revenue and leads to less than generous operating revenue for other existing clubs trying to compete.

Source: priceoffootball.com

Albeit that the Old Firm clubs have kept the Scottish league in existence on the European stage, it does come at a greater long term price of the importance of football in communities which are less advantaged as a social outlet that is upholds and protects communities from harmful influences ,having role model clubs who are competing and are in with a chance to win at competition level, this may annually attract the interest and creates a sense of hope and confidence in those who interact and partake in the game at all levels.

The responsibility of service to the communities existing around these football clubs must be recognised at both Public and Private levels.

With this, appropriate structures which hinge upon economic, people and movement are required to be accounted for before a ball is kicked.

15

Ground capacity of each club within the C.A.L Premiership Ground Capacity of each Initiating Club 25000 20000 15000

C.A.L League avg. Ground Capacity 10,272

10000 5000 0

Source Data: Transfermarkt.com

Ground Capacity in comparison to other larger leagues is roughly 2.5 times smaller, however the C.A.L League and itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s fundamental functional objectives is not to seek the grandeur of such leagues but rather to promote the game from a grassroots level up, therefore grounds which are already perceived as applicable by UEFA standards , would present no obstacle to be used within the C.A.L League standards. In the event of over demand , especially in the case of the Republic of Ireland , there are other Stadia of great capacity that can facilitate a larger event , namely that of the Aviva Stadium , Dublin and more of similar capacity in the regional cities of Cork, Limerick and Galway. The C.A.L Cup competitions and their Finals would also aimed to be hosted in in Large Venues , for example at Hampden Park (Glasgow), Aviva Stadium (Dublin) and Windsor Park (Belfast) . The minimal ground capacity to compete in the C.A.L League may indicate that a required capacity of a 2,000 seated capacity and adhered to by the UEFA regulations.

16

Regional Supporting Leagues : An Example of the strongest teams which would compete for promotion Northern Ireland 

Ards Fc



Ballymena Utd

Scotland



Coleraine FC



Alloa Athletic



Dungannon Swifts



Ayr United



Institute FC



Dundee FC



Larne FC



Dunfermline Athletic



Newry City FC



Falkirk



Portadown FC



Greenock Morton



Warrenpoint Town FC



Hamilton Academical



Partick Thistle



Queen of the South



Ross County

Republic of Ireland 

Athlone Town



Bray Wanderers



Cobh Ramblers



Drogheda Utd



Shelbourne FC



Finn Harps



Sligo Rovers FC



Galway Utd



U.C.D



Limerick FC



Waterford United



Longford Town



Wexford Youths FC 17

Regional League Structure and Promotion Playoff Configuration

Top two teams from each division Qualify for a playoff round

Top two teams from each division Qualify for a playoff round

Top two teams from each division Qualify for a playoff round

Two of the best third teams qualify for the Promotion Playoff round , this presents a Quarter Final Structure , where the teams which have won each division are seeded with home advantage on the initial draw , the second place teams are unseeded as are the two best third teams.

Each supporting division competes within their own National Structure and geography. They are obliged to reach required standards to compete in the Combined Association League if promoted i.e. minimum 2,000 seated ground capacity. As the C.A.L League is the Premier and Primary top fight division for each three leagues , earning a UEFA competition place would not qualify unless they are successful in a cup competition which would qualify it as so.

18

Youth Development Recommendations

â&#x20AC;&#x153; With mass participation, talents are a by-product of a good grassroots programâ&#x20AC;?

Andy Roxburgh

For teams competing in the Regional supporting leagues, it is recommended that 30% of the squad should be under-23 and a further 5% of this percentage, are between 17 and 20 years old.

The adaption of the national apprenticeship scheme is recommended to co-opt with the leagues and also intervarsity youth competitions are recommended to be co-opted within the youth competition structure. The co-opting of the apprenticeship scheme recommends that youth players also learn another skill while training to become a professional footballer/semi-professional ; ranging from Trades, Business, Information Technology, Languages and other skills which the market may demand.

The Irish model of apprenticeship programs may suit the structure of youth development across all jurisdictions however with the examination needing further analysis when compared with the Northern Irish or Scottish apprenticeship programs. Such a program allows time for a younger player to become familiar with the environment of full time sport whilst gaining some valuable educational and transferrable skills if they decide to choose a different career path or fall unfortunate to the contact nature and physical strain of the full time game. With this, the risk factor of a career in football or in another field can be lessened to free the conscious of stress surrounding such decisions and to enjoy playing the game, thus being more competitive.

19

Financial Recommendations : Wage ceilings and floors, Sponsorship embargoes Every economic facet of the game should be examined to develop an economic model which can sustain clubs, players and fans, these variables are best suited in cooperation and transparent knowledge of all.

Therefore the assessment variables of football expenditure must be contained within parameters that can sustain the league and create a strong platform for expansion and deeper development.

The main variables which stand out are that of Wages , Income (i.e. Match day Income, Sponsorship and Broadcasting), as wages amount for a large amount of expenditure , placing a ceiling of â&#x201A;Ź100,000 per annum for player wages in the first 7 years of the league, this may place an emphasis to create a steady supply of players coming through the youth structure, thus placing an incentive young people to become more involved in the game at an early age , with the leagueâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s motto and attitude recommended to aim at approaching the league and youth development with an open minded and openly communicative mind set, where obstacles are discussed openly rather than not spoken about openly. Due to nature of rebuilding the influential role that Football can play in each society akin to each geography, openness when approaching the youth is highly recommended. The game and being involved in it , has elements of science and psychology that must be included within itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s learning structure.

The behaviour between money/expenditure and youth development must be recognised; they are inextricably linked, therefore an incremental grade scale of payment is also recommended to be introduced for those whom have come through the academy or a youth development program in a club , on this basis a younger player can after two seasons can avail of and negotiate to the top level payment, this will add to the steady development of such players therefore sustaining the development until a deeper level of tacit maturity has been attained.

The use of Alcoholic beverages , tobacco or E-Vaping is recommended NOT to be promoted on a club shirt or as a leagues main sponsor.

20

21

Joseph Francis Kelly , 38, is a native of Galway and has been undertaking independent research themes for over 5 years now.

He has studied and graduated from University of Limerick (Business Studies),

University College Cork (geography w/Planning) and NUI Galway (E-Business Analysis/German).

He has presented this report with the intention to better the game of Football in the areas examined and to add to the positive socio-economic influences through Youth Development, Micro-Economic sustainability, improving National self-regard, Public Health, Employment creation and Sustainable/Proportionate Commercial Development.

All of these research undertakings have been unremunerated to date and furthermore , he has expressed interest in maintaining a career in this area due to itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s; â&#x20AC;&#x153;great degree of job satisfaction, being creative yet measured in serving a commercial or a public goodâ&#x20AC;?.

He currently resides in Galway,Ireland and continues to work in the community with local sports clubs and also still competes at his beloved Soccer/Football whilst learning to coach and achieve badges through Sport Ireland and the F.A.I. He hopes that his contribution can improve the Economic, Social and Sporting life of Ireland, Ulster and Scotland.

22

Contact Details :

Mr. Joseph Francis Kelly Caraun Rd, Kiniska, Baile Chlรกir, Galway, Ireland

Email: j.kelly46@nuigalway.ie (or AGPIreland@gmail.com)

23

References 













Transfermarkt GmbH & Co. KG. 2018. TransferMarkt. [ONLINE] Available at: https:// www.transfermarkt.com/. [Accessed 6 December 2018].

Deloitte LLP. 2017. Annual Review of Football Finance 2018. [ONLINE] Available at: https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/sports-business-group/articles/ annual-review-of-football-finance.html. [Accessed 4 December 2018]. priceoffootball.com. 2018. http://priceoffootball.com/?s=Scotland. [ONLINE] Available at: http://priceoffootball.com. [Accessed 4 December 2018].

Scottish Premier Football League. 2018. Scottish Premier Football League Clubs.

[ONLINE] Available at: https://spfl.co.uk/clubs. [Accessed 4 December 2018].

Irish Football Association. 2018. Irish Football Association. [ONLINE] Available at: https://www.irishfa.com/ifa-domestic/leagues. [Accessed 2 December 2018].

SSE AIRTRICITY LEAGUE. 2018. SSE Airtricity League Clubs. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.sseairtricityleague.ie/clubs. [Accessed 2 December 2018].

Football Association of Ireland. 2018. Football Association of Ireland Competitions.

[ONLINE] Available at: https://www.fai.ie/domestic/competitions/overview.

[Accessed 3 December 2018].

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25

Appendix 1 : Accumulation of Scoring averages via formula (part 1)

Dundalk

Hibernian

Aberdeen FC

Kilmarnock FC

Hearts

St. Johnstone FC

Motherwell

St. Mirren FC

Inverness CT

Livingston FC

Dundee Utd

Cork City FC

Ground Cap. Weight Market Value Weight Prev.Perform. Weight Demographics Weight UEFA Coeff Weight 4,500 0.25 1.1 0.625 3 4.4 39004 2.5 350 2.5 99523.89 1125 0.6875 13.2 97510 875 995.2389 20421

20,866

17,889

20,099

10,696

13,677

8023

7,512

8716

14,223

7,485

1 20421

11.05

1 20866

10.4

1 17889

8.98

1 20099

8.6

0.75 8022

6.82

0.75 10257.75

5.96

0.5 4011.5

5.04

0.5 3756

3.17

0.5 4538

4.77

0.75 10667.25

6.01

0.5 3742.5

2.27

0.5 5.525

1

0.5 5.2

0

0.25 2.245

0

0.25 2.15

0

0.25 1.705

0

0.25 1.49

0

0.25 1.26

0

1.25 3.9625

0

1.25 5.9625

0

0.25 1.5025

0

1.25 2.8375

3

2.85 2.85

513,210

0 0

222,793

0 0

46351.10

0 0

513210

0 0

47180

0 0

32,120

0 0

77210

0 0

63,780

0 0

56,269

0 0

148270

4.4 13.2

125657

0.5 256605

328

0.5 111396.5

326

2.501 115875

350

0.25 128302.5

329

2.5 117950

327

2.5 80300

331

2 154420

350

2.5 159450

350

2.5 140672.5

350

0.75 111202.5

332

1 125657

350

2 277690.4 656 925.6346

2 132919.7 652 590.7542 2.5 134641.2 875 1346.412

2 149061.7 658 496.8722 2 126627.7 654 1266.277 2 91221.24 662 912.2124

2.5 159307.8 875 1593.078 2.5 164085 875 1640.85 2.5 146091.5 875 1460.915 2 122535.3 664 612.6763 2.5 130290.5 875 579.0691

10.275 96.86023 6.85 135.1291

4 147.6886 6.251 215.3915

3.5 141.9635 5.5 230.2322 5.5 165.8568 5.25 303.4434 6.25 262.5359 6.75 216.4318 3.75 163.3803 9.65 60.00716

26

Appendix 1 : Accumulation of Scoring averages via formula (part 2)

Derry City

Bohemians

St. Patricks Athletic

Shamrock Rovers

Linfield FC

Glentoran FC

Crusaders FC

Glenavon FC

Cliftonville FC

7,700

8,000

5,350

6,000

18,167

6,050

3,383

4,160

3,200

0.5 3850

1.31

0.5 4000

0.135

0.5 2675

1.08

0.5 3000

0.743

1 18167

0.878

0.5 3025

0.158

0.25 845.75

0.203

0.25 1040

0.878

0.5 1600

0.36

0.625 0.81875

0

0.3125 0.042188

0

0.625 0.675

0

0.3125 0.232188

0

0.3125 0.274375

1

0.3125 0.049375

0

0.3125 0.063438

0

0.3125 0.274375

1

0.3125 0.1125

0

0 0

93,512

1,173,179

0 0

1173179

0 0

1173179

2.75 2.75

483,418

0 0

483418

0 0

483418

2.65 2.65

25,069

0 0

483418

2 187024

350

0.125 146647.4

350

0.125 146647.4

347

0.125 146647.4

350

0.5 241709

350

0.5 241709

350

0.5 241709

350

2.5 62672.5

350

0.5 241709

350

2.5 191749.8 875 1917.498 2.5 151522.4 875 432.9212 2 150017.1 694 428.6201 2.5 150522.6 875 430.0646 2.5 260754 875 1043.016 2.5 245609 875 982.4362 2.5 242584.1 875 970.3363

2.5 64590.42 875 645.9042 2.5 244184.1 875 976.7365

5.625 340.8886 3.125 138.5348 3.25 131.8831 3.4375 125.1097 7.0625 147.6837 3.8125 257.6882 3.8125 254.5144 8.2125 78.64892 3.8125 256.1932

27

Appendix 1 : Accumulation of Scoring averages with Weight classification via formula (part 3)

Grd.Cap >2000 >5000 >10000 >15000

0.25 0.5 0.75 1

Mkt Value >20m >10m >5m >2.5m >1m >500K

3 0.5 0.25 1.25 0.625 0.3125

<100K

0.15625

UEFA Club Ceff >150 >200 >250 >300 >350 Demographics <=>50K >75k >100K >125k >150K >250 >500k >1m

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

2.5 2 1.5 1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0.125

City Size /Weight <100K 100 City Size /Weight >500K 300

City Size Weight >200K 225

City Size Weight >1m 350 City Size Weight >1m 350 City Size Weight >400K 250

City Size Weight <100K 100

City Size Weight >400K 250

City Size Weight >500K 300

City Size Weight >400K 250

Prev.Perf PSCHPLGE

1(2.75)

GRSCHPLGE PSEPLGE GRSEPLGE KSEPLGE

1(4.25) 1(2.65) 1(2.85) 1(3.5)

City Size Weight <100K 100

DOMLGECHP

1(1.5)

City Size Weight <100K 100

DOMRUPLGE

1(0.5)

DOMCWIN

1(0.25)

City Size Weight <100K 100

City Size Weight <100K 100 City Size Weight >400K 250

City Size Weight <100K 100 City Size Weight <100K 100 City Size Weight >1m 350 28

29