AfricaBriefing: November-December

TRUMP 2.0: HOW AFRICA FITS INTO TRUMP’S GLOBAL PLAYBOOK

News. Analysis. Comment.

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November-December 2024

Vol.7 No.35

GHANA DECIDES

Election outcome hinges on demographic shifts

The world needs a dynamic Africa Eurozone 5 euros UK £3.00 North America $6.50 CFA Zone CFA2,600 Ethiopia R90 Ghana GHC12.00 Kenya KSh350 Rwanda RWF3,000 Sierra Leone LE20,000 South Africa R40.00 (inc. tax) Other Southern African Countries R35.10 (excl. tax) Tanzania TSh6,500 Uganda USh10,700 Zambia ZMK45

Western aid: a blessing or a curse?

35

Yours to Discover!

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PUBLISHER’S NOTE

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Osinbajo champions Africa as global driver of change

Publisher Jon Offei-Ansah Editor

F

ORMER Nigerian Vice President Yemi Osinbajo's insightful presentation at the 6th African Union mid-year coordination meeting earlier this year highlights Africa’s growing prominence in global development. His reflections outline a forward-thinking narrative that moves beyond the stereotypes of resource dependency, positioning the continent as a hub for innovation, sustainable growth, and a solution provider in the climate crisis. However, achieving this vision demands global cooperation, African unity, and transformative leadership.

From resource extraction to value addition

Osinbajo astutely notes the paradigm shift in Africa’s resource policies. Nearly half of subSaharan African countries now mandate value addition before exporting raw materials. This is a significant departure from the colonial model of resource exploitation, which historically left African nations impoverished despite their wealth of natural resources.

The emerging focus on green hydrogen production exemplifies this transformation. Countries like Namibia, Angola, and South Africa are advancing clean energy projects that will position Africa as a global leader in renewable energy. Namibia’s $10 billion investment in green hydrogen and Angola’s plan to export green ammonia to Germany by 2025 are testament to the continent's ambition. These projects not only signal Africa's role in combating climate change but also its ability to integrate into high-value global supply chains.

However, the real challenge PUBLISHER’S NOTE lies in ensuring that these initiatives deliver broad-based benefits.

African governments must create regulatory frameworks that prevent foreign investors from Publisher monopolising the value chain while excluding local communities. As Osinbajo emphasises, Jon Offei-Ansah Africa bucksgrowth global climate-positive requires a “grand bargain” with the Global North—one that prioritises fair trade rules,trend access to carbon markets, and investments in renewable energy.

Editor economic

The power of youth and innovation

I

Desmond Davies

n 2018,demographic six of the 10 fastest-growing Africa’s advantage, with a rapidly growing youthful population, offers immense Deputy Editor economies in the world were in potential.

Osinbajo points to the rise of tech hubs and startups, such as the six unicorns in Africa, according to the World Bank, Angela Cobbinah Nigeria, as evidence of African ingenuity.

Platforms like the UNDP-backed $1 billion Africa with Ghana leading the pack. With GDP growth forFoundation the continent projected Innovation furthertounderscore the continent’s capacity for transformative change.

Contributing Editor accelerate to four per cent in 2019 and 4.1 Williams Yet, the opportunities presented investment per cent in 2020, Africa’s economic growth by this youthful workforce depend on sustainedStephen story continues apace.

Meanwhile, World Bank’s 2019 Doing Business the Indexdigital divide will enable African in education, digital skills,theand infrastructure.

Bridging Director, Special Projects reveals that five of the 10 most-improved countries are in Africa, and one-third of innovators to compete globally, whileAfrica. fostering a culture of collaboration will address the all reforms recorded globally were in sub-Saharan Michael Orji fragmented nature of the continent’s innovation ecosystem.

What makes the story more impressive and heartening is that the growth Contributors –Climate-positive projected to be broad-basedgrowth: – is being achieved in a challenging global a global imperative environment, bucking the most trend. compelling arguments is Africa's central role in achieving Justice Lee climate Adoboe One of Osinbajo’s global

Iloegbunam In the Cover Story of adopts this edition, Dr. Hippolyte Fofack, development Chief Economist at the goals.

If Africa a carbon-intensive model, the repercussionsChuks for global African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), analyses the factors underpinning this Kayira emissions would be catastrophic. Conversely, a climate-positive growth trajectory,Joseph leveraging performance. Two factors, in my opinion, stand out in Dr. Hippolyte’s analysis: Zachary Ochieng renewable energy, couldand make Africa a global leader in sustainability. trade between Africa and China the intra-African cross-border investment and Olu Ojewale infrastructure development.

The African Union’s endorsement of this paradigm reflects growing continental commitment.

Oladipo Okubanjo Much has beenthe saidsuccess and written ever-deepening foray into support. The Global However, ofabout suchChina’s a strategy hingeseconomic on international NorthSoar must Corinne Africa, especially by Western analysts and commentators who have been sounding not only acknowledge Africa’s sequestration capacity but also compensate the continent for alarm bells about re-colonisation of Africa, this time by the Chinese. But empirical preserving carbonpicture. sinks. A reformed financial architecture that reduces borrowingDesigner costs and evidence paints its a different

incentivises greenglobal investments is critical.

Gloria Ansah Despite the decelerating growth environment, trade between Africa and China increased by 14.5 per cent in the first three quarters of 2018, surpassing Collaboration is key Country Representatives the growth rate of world trade (11.6 per cent), reflecting the deepening economic Osinbajo’s call for intra-African collaboration is timely. The African Continental Free Trade dependency between the two major trading partners.

South Africa

Area (AfCFTA) presents an unprecedented to unify the continent Edward economically.

Empirical evidence shows that China’s domestic investmentopportunity has become highly Walter Byerley Increased intra-African coupled with coordinated with global blocs, linked with economic expansion trade, in Africa.

A one percentage point increase trade negotiationsTop Dog Media, 5 Ascot Knights in China’s domestic investment growth is associated with an average of 0.6 could enhance Africa’s bargaining power on the world stage.

47 Grand National Boulevard Royal Ascot, percentage point increase in overall African exports. And, the expected economic Milnerton 7441, South development trade impact of expanding Chinese investment on resource-rich However,and achieving unity requires strong leadership and an alignment of national interests withAfrica Tel: +27 (0) 21 555 0096 African countries, especially oil-exporting must countries, is even more important. collective goals.

The continent overcome political fragmentation and address infrastructural Cell: +27 (0) 81 331 4887

The resilience of African economies can also be attributed to growing intra-African gaps that hinder trade and economic integration.

Email: ed@topdog-media.net cross-border investment and infrastructure development. A combination of the Towards statesmanship two factors is accelerating the process of structural transformation in a continent Ghana where industrial Osinbajo output and services for a growing share of GDP. African Ultimately, arguesaccount that Africa’s transformation requires both African and Nanaglobal Asiama Bekoe corporations and industrialists which are expanding their industrial footprint across Kingdom Concept Co. statesmanship. Leaders must prioritise long-term goals over short-term political gains. This Africa and globally are leading the diversification from agriculture into higher Tel: +233and 243ensuring 393 943 /that +233 303 967 470 includes regional cooperation, rethinking global financial systems, value goods fostering in manufacturing and service sectors. These industrial champions kingsconceptsltd@gmail.com are carrying natural out transcontinental operations, with investment holdings harnessed around the for global progress.

Africa’s and human resources are optimally globe, with a strong presence in Europe and Pacific Asia, together account for more Nigeria For75the North, recognising Africa’s than perGlobal cent of their combined activities outside Africa.pivotal role in achieving net-zero emissions and

Taiwo Adedoyin

is notcorporations just a moral is a pragmaticMV necessity.

For Africa, Aglobal survey economic of 30 leading stability emerging African withobligation—it global footprints and Noble, Press House, 3rd Floor the pathrevenue forward liesthan in bold, unified action, where collaboration drives progress. combined of more $118 billion shows that they are active in several 27 Acme Road, Ogba, Ikeja, Lagos industries, including manufacturing (e.g., Dangote Industries), basic materials, Tel: +234 806 291 7100 A vision worth telecommunications (e.g.,pursuing Econet, Safaricom), finance (e.g., Ecobank) and oil taiadedoyin52@gmail.com and gas. In addition to mitigatingserves risks highly with African economies, Osinbajo’s presentation as acorrelated call to action for Africa and the world. The continent’s these emerging African global corporations are accelerating theposition diversification dynamism, youthful energy, and natural wealth it asofa cornerstone of global Kenya sources of growth and reducing the exposure of countries to adverse commodity Naima Farahand development.

However, realising this potential requires systemic changes, both within Africa terms of trade.

Room 22,promise 2nd FloorasWest globally. Only through mutual collaboration and visionary leadership can Africa’s a Wing Royal Square, Ngong Road, Nairobi driver of global prosperity be fulfilled.

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This makes me very bullish about Africa!

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Africa Briefing Ltd 2 Redruth Close, London N22 8RN United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 208 888 6693 publisher@africabriefing.org

Desmond Davies Contributing Editors Prof. Toyin Falola Tikum Mbah Azonga Prof. Ojo Emmanuel Ademola (Technology) Valerie Msoka (Special Projects) Contributors Justice Lee Adoboe Chief Chuks Iloegbunam Joseph Kayira Zachary Ochieng Olu Ojewale Oladipo Okubanjo Corinne Soar Kennedy Olilo Gorata Chepete Designer Simon Blemadzie Country Representatives South Africa Edward Walter Byerley Top Dog Media, 5 Ascot Knights 47 Grand National Boulevard Royal Ascot, Milnerton 7441, South Africa Tel: +27 (0) 21 555 0096 Cell: +27 (0) 81 331 4887 Email: ed@topdog-media.net Ghana Nana Asiama Bekoe Kingdom Concept Co. Tel: +233 243 393 943 / +233 303 967 470 kingsconceptsltd@gmail.com Nigeria Nnenna Ogbu #4 Babatunde Oduse crescent Isheri Olowora - Isheri Berger, Lagos Tel: +234 803 670 4879 getnnenna.ogbu@gmail.com Kenya Patrick Mwangi Aquarius Media Ltd, PO Box 10668-11000 Nairobi, Kenya Tel: 0720 391 546/0773 35 41 Email: mwangi@aquariusmedia.co.ke ©Africa Briefing Ltd 2 Redruth Close, London N22 8RN United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 208 888 6693 publisher@africabriefing.org

Contents

Vol.7 No.35 November-December 2024

LEADER

6

People power must now prevail

COMMENT

07

America elects its own ‘strongman’ president

COVER STORY

08

Changing demographics hold key to outcome of Ghana elections

08

A noticeable shift among first-time voters toward the political centre, with nearly 10 per cent identifying as non-aligned despite targeted government policies, shows that traditional strongholds no longer guarantee electoral success, writes Seth Doe

10

Economic crisis and galamsey debate

With inflation, youth unemployment, and environmental issues at the forefront, Ghana's December 7 election promises to be a turning point, writes Jon Offei-Ansah

26

ANALYSIS

16

The world needs a dynamic Africa

26

Elusive peace in Mozambique

Of the many stereotypes that we have to deal with in our quest to tell the full story of the continent, none are as grating as the ones that seek to portray it as stagnant, unchanging and predictable, argues Yemi Osinbajo

Of the many stereotypes that we have to deal with in our quest to tell the full story of the continent, none are as grating as the ones that seek to portray it as stagnant, unchanging and predictable, argues Yemi Osinbajo

BUSINESS & ECONOMY

34

Africa’s debt dilemma: pathways to economic independence

Agnes Gitau addresses Africa's escalating debt crisis, calling on the IMF, World Bank, and G20 to shift from cyclical relief to lasting reforms that would liberate African nations from dependence on high-cost, highinterest loans

36

Western aid: a blessing or a curse?

Despite $150 billion in annual aid, Africa remains trapped in poverty and underdevelopment. Jon Offei-Ansah critically examines why systemic issues persist and whether Western aid is truly benefiting the continent

34 ENERGY

40

West Africa’s $855m power project to boost regional energy trade

West Africa's ambitious $855 million energy initiative aims to boost regional electricity trade, increase renewable energy production, and enhance power accessibility in Mauritania and Mali with AfDB support

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LEADER

People power must now prevail A

SEISMIC change is taking place across the political landscape in Africa. In October, the Botswana Democratic Party, which had been in power since the country gained independence from Britain in 1966, was turfed out of power by the electorate.

The election ushered in the Umbrella for Democratic Change, whose presidential candidate, 54-year-old Duma Boko, replaced the BDP’s Mokgsweeti Masisi.

The BDP ended up with only four seats, out of 61, in a parliament that it had controlled for 58 years. Unlike previous trends on the continent, however, Masisi accepted the electorate’s decision and promised a smooth transition of power.

It was all the more special because he had served only one term, something that is uncommon in politics in Africa. But we must not forget George Weah of Liberia, who also served one term when he lost last year’s presidential election. This might be catching on.

In South Africa in May, the African National Congress, the liberation movement that took over the reins of power in 1994, lost its parliamentary majority, and is now in a coalition with the Democratic Alliance and Inkatha Freedom Party. It was the ANC’s worst performance in the 30 years that it had been in control of the country.

This November, the opposition Alliance for Change coalition ousted the government of the Militant Socialist Movement coalition in an election that saw the latter fail to win any of the 62 seats that are directly elected to parliament. This means that Navin Ramgoolam will return as the country’s prime minister, a position he held from 1995 to 2000 and again from 2005 to 2014.

Outgoing Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth conceded defeat before all results were announced, saying his coalition was headed for a huge defeat as it became clear that the opposition was winning. Jugnauth, who had been in office since 2017 and seeking another five-year term, said: “The population has decided to choose another team. I wish good luck to the country.”

What do all these results portend for 6

the democratic process and rule of law in Africa? For one thing, it is clear that voters are not going to buy the cant that their political leaders routinely dispense at election time. For another, the electorate is getting younger. Figures show that young people constitute 60 per cent of the continent’s population under the age of 25.

And they are the ones who will hold the balance of power in Africa for generations to come. They now have a different worldview. They are not going to stand for corruption or the mismanagement of their countries as those before them did.

Young Africans are going to now take robust action against electoral fraud and the failure of the rule of law. We are seeing this currently in Mozambique where FRELIMO is trying to hang on to power since the election on October 9.

Young Mozambicans have taken on the security forces who have been opening fire against demonstrators challenging the result of the presidential election. Again, a liberation movement is under pressure but, unlike the ANC in South Africa, FRELIMO wants to stay put after 49 years in control.

The problem here for FRELIMO is that young Mozambicans do not have a clue about its liberation struggle. What they care about are bread and butter issues

independence. It has pushed its first ever elections to 2026 from December this year. But young Sudanese know that their country could do a lot better if their leader put their backs into it.

Young Africans, as we have seen in Botswana, South Africa and Mauritius, now know that they can make a difference through the ballot box. This is why the December 7 presidential and parliamentary elections in Ghana are so crucial.

By all accounts the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) of outgoing President Nana Akufo-Addo wants to hold on to power at all costs, even though the indicators show that the government has woefully failed Ghanaians. There have been rumblings throughout this year that could explode if attempts are made to subvert the will of the people.

Since Ghana returned to democratic rule in 1992, the two main parties, the NPP and the National Democratic Congress, have been changed after two terms.

The NPP has done its two terms, and Ghanaians are now expecting the party to be voted out of power.

It is high time that young people in Africa are given the respect and opportunities that they deserve. After all, they are the ones who are going to be around to work towards the continent

Africans ‘ Young can now make a

difference through the ballot box

that will give them a better a quality of life. They cannot survive on stories about the liberation struggle.

Meanwhile, another liberation movement, the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army/Movement, is hanging on to transitional power 13 years after

’

achieving the African Union’s Agenda 2063 that is aimed at “transforming Africa into the global powerhouse of the future”.

In it therefore imperative that people power should now be allowed to finally flourish on the continent. If not, Agenda 2063 will be a shattered dream for AB young Africans

AFRICA BRIEFING NOVEMBER - DECEMBER 2024

COMMENT

America elects its own ‘strongman’ president Y

OU’VE got to hand it to Donald Trump. He has done it again – winning the US presidential election on November 5 emphatically, much to the chagrin of his opponents. But the Republican knows his people well, and he got his message through in a manner they quite understood.

Trump’s patter on the hustings was akin to the spiel of the archetypal American snake oil salesman of yore.

He rambled on about Haitian immigrants eating “dawgs and cyats”. Give me strength!

Then we got an inane comment from Tony Hinchcliffe, a comedian (yes, indeed, a real comedian this time), about Puerto Rico being a “floating island of garbage”. Beware Puerto Ricans, the Trump administration might be eyeing your homeland to dump toxic waste from mainland America.

Gullible supporters lapped up this garbage from the Republicans with gusto.

Not surprisingly, Vice President Kamala

‘

according to partisan leanings? Whatever happened to America’s vaunted judicial independence? Justice, as we are told, must be seen to be done – meaning that any semblance of bias must make any judicial decision invalid.

It is not surprising that Trump has been reported as saying that he will be a dictator once he is sworn in on January 20, 2025. Indeed, dictatorship is not far from Trump’s demeanour, and he seems to like dictators.

He has called Egyptian President Abdul Fattah el-Sisi “my favourite dictator”. Although he is about to lock horns with China over tariffs, he adores Xi Jinping. “He controls 1.4 billion people with an iron fist. He’s a brilliant guy, whether you like him or not,” he says of the Chinese leader.

Trump regularly shoots from the hip.

Many will remember the ire that he evoked among Africans when he made disparaging remarks about their continent during his first presidency. For me, by traducing

Trump’s patter was akin to the spiel of the archetypal American snake oil salesman of yore

Harris’ campaign floundered, leaving Trump to win the Electoral College, and along the way garnering 75,518,895 votes (50.2%) as against 72,372,332 (48.1%) for the Democratic candidate. It was the first time since 2004 that a Republican won the popular vote for the presidency.

Trump is thus primed to become all powerful running the US with his appointed “loyalists” and Republican cronies who are in control of Congress, knowing full well that challenging him will be a problem for those who want to try and rein him in. He will also have the support of the Republican Supreme Court judges, who outnumber Democratic judges by six to three.

Why should judges interpret the law

’

African countries, Trump was exposing his vainglorious nature.

What irked him most was that he wanted to be like some of Africa’s strongmen, but Americans would not allow him to get his way. He was reacting like a playground bully who sees others doing things that he would like to do, but he could not.

And he did try. Take the January 6, 2021 attempt to overthrow the constitutional order after he had lost the November 2020 presidential election.

Like some African strongmen, he urged his militia groups, the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers, to stage a coup, and they assaulted the Capitol.

They failed woefully. When the macho

Desmond Davies members of the Proud Boys were sent to jail, some of them started weeping.

This was unlike the West Side Boys, during the turbulent years in Sierra Leone, who gave UN peacekeepers, Nigerian and British troops a run for their money.

Of course, they were renegades who did not mean well for Sierra Leone and – just like the Proud Boys – they eventually succumbed to more superior and principled forces.

There was much equivocation by the US media about how to describe the actions of Trump’s militia, calling them “riots”. That is not how an attempted coup in an African country would have been reported by American journalists.

They would have been regurgitating lazy, negative stereotypes about democracy and the rule of law on the continent.

Trump himself was there on Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington DC, exhorting his militia to be violent. “We fight. We fight like hell and if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.”

One thing for sure is that US diplomats in Africa are going to have their work cut out under a Trump administration.

How will they explain the actions of their president who makes decisions on the hoof? They will find it difficult to call out African leaders who are not on the right track while the US president himself is behaving irrationally.

Just a week after Trump’s victory, the US ambassador to Kenya, Meg Whitman, submitted her resignation to outgoing President Joe Biden. She had worked closely with Kenyan President William Ruto, and which led to his state visit to Washington in May – the first by an African leader to the US in 16 years.

So, now that Trump has ultimate power, will he try to cosy up to his fellow strongmen in Africa? Or will he upset the apple cart yet again?

Many African leaders are already trying to fathom out how to deal with an erratic American president over the AB next four years.

AFRICA BRIEFING NOVEMBER - DECEMBER 2024

7

COVER STORY

Changing demographics hold key to outcome of Ghana elections A noticeable shift among first-time voters toward the political centre, with nearly 10 per cent identifying as non-aligned despite targeted government policies, shows that traditional strongholds no longer guarantee electoral success, writes Seth Doe

G

HANA, a beacon of democracy in West Africa, has successfully transitioned power four times under its Fourth Republican Constitution. As the nation prepares for its fifth democratic elections on December 7, President Nana AkufoAddo's New Patriotic Party (NPP) administration will conclude its second term.

The government’s 2024 manifesto outlines 72 major achievements across various sectors, including free secondary education and improvements in road and hospital infrastructure.

However, these successes are overshadowed by significant tests and public discontent.

From left: Mahama and running mate Prof Naana Opoku Agyeman, Bawumia and running mate Matthew Opoku Prempeh

The Ghanaian voter faces growing challenges that considerably affect livelihoods, including rampant food inflation and failed agricultural policies, alongside erratic rain patterns driving up the cost of living. Housing utility costs have reached their highest levels in two decades, adding further pressure on household finances.

The government's flagship free senior high school (SHS) programme has been central to the food supply crisis, resulting in constant food shortages in schools with pressure coming from suppliers demanding overdue payments. Economic mismanagement and a growing debt burden, despite an IMF programme intended to restore fiscal discipline, have fuelled public frustration.

This is compounded by the collapse of indigenous banks and a controversial domestic debt exchange programme, which have further strained financial stability.

Pensioners, including Ghana's former Chief Justice, have staged protests against the severe impact of the debt exchange on 8

their meagre incomes.

Systemic corruption and environmental degradation, due to illegal mining (galamsey), have intensified voter discontent, leading to weekly demonstrations and advocacy from civil society groups, faith-based organisations and media coalitions. These issues erode trust in governance and degrade natural resources essential for community wellbeing.

This combination of hardships has resulted in widespread dissatisfaction with the country's leadership, as citizens grapple with weakened economic structures and increasingly compromised livelihoods.

Notable voices, including university lecturers, business executives and respected religious leaders, who once gave the government a chance to perform, have now joined the call for a new leadership.

Several international and domestic researchers, including Fitch Solutions and Accra-based Global InfoAnalytics, have been tracking Ghana’s electoral landscape, predicting a straight win for former

President John Mahama, the presidential candidate of the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC). These polls provide valuable insights into voting behaviour and electoral trends ahead of the elections.

Key emerging issues include a noticeable shift among first-time voters toward the political centre, with nearly 10 per cent identifying as non-aligned despite targeted government policies. Traditional strongholds no longer guarantee electoral success due to shifting population dynamics and unreliable voter density advantages.

Groups such as women, the middle class, youth, trade unions, religious bodies and labour organisations are becoming increasingly influential in shaping electoral outcomes, representing a potential “third force”.

While businessman Dr Paa Kwesi Nduom attempted to mobilise nongeographical constituencies in 2016, he failed to create a formidable “third force”. In 2024, the Butterfly Party, led by

AFRICA BRIEFING NOVEMBER - DECEMBER 2024

COVER STORY former NPP presidential contender Alan Kyerematen, is expected to draw more votes from the geopolitical space rather than non-geopolitical constituencies.

Mahama’s NDC has crafted a 2024 campaign message targeting intersectional constituencies alongside traditional strongholds. The manifesto addresses key economic, social and governance challenges while appealing to international investors. Highlights include the establishment of a Women’s Development Bank, membership of the Islamic Development Bank, eliminating fee stress for undergraduate education, expanding accommodation for tertiary students and sustainable funding for the free SHS policy. Added to these are proposed land banks to encourage youth participation in agriculture, tax incentives for youth entrepreneurs, the elimination of various taxes, provision of free sanitary pads for schoolgirls and a strong anticorruption initiative aimed at recovering misappropriated public funds.

Polls show Mahama, among all 13 presidential contenders, as the most competent candidate who is trusted to unite Ghana and address citizens’ needs.

The NPP on the other hand, represented by Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, is distancing itself from the policy failures Pre-election deadlock THE processes leading to the parliamentary and presidential elections in Ghana in December are at a deadlock, with widespread calls for a forensic audit of the voters register. This has been triggered by validation and audit queries raised by the opposition National Democratic Congress; findings that the Electoral Commission has been unable to refute.

The NDC employed structured queries to audit and validate the electronic copies of the Provisional Voters Register (PVR) it received from the EC as required by law. The NDC's audit methodologies revealed the following outcomes: • About 243,540 cases of 2023 voter transfers were illegally added to 2024 transfers, with duplication of the illegally transferred names across the national voter roll.

• Over 15,000 cases of unidentifiable

Pensioners, including Ghana's ex-Chief Justice Sophia Akuffo, protest the debt exchange's severe impact on their incomes

of the Akufo-Addo administration while proposing new economic and social initiatives.

Proposals include the abolition of the E-Levy and other taxes, the creation of an SME Bank – though this faces criticism given the collapse of indigenous banks – and promises of a Miners Bank despite the environmental devastation caused by illegal mining.

Both the NDC and NPP manifestos prioritise similar themes: economic reform, social sector development, governance, gender inclusion, infrastructure and environmental protection. However, their delivery of these promises diverges based on each party’s philosophy, voter transfer paths, implying "fraudulent registration" of voters who could not be traced to their original polling stations.

• 3,957 cases of voters present in the 2023 Final Voters Register (FVR used for District Level Elections) but missing from the 2024 PVR. • 2,094 voters were transferred to different polling stations but not found on the corresponding counter checklist, called the "Absent Voter List," as required by electoral law.

• Corrupt electronic files, not bearing names and photos of the registered voters, were found on the PVR, without the knowledge of the public.

To address the widespread irregularities, detect problems, prevent mass disenfranchisement, block election rigging, avoid a third election petition and assure the global community of readiness for a new government, the NDC has engaged the EC with

governance history, leadership character and the prevailing local and international context. Both parties will face pressure to restore fiscal discipline while delivering on development promises, leveraging alternative financing methods. The NDC continues to propose Islamic finance frameworks, including the issuance of Islamic bonds for underserved sectors like agriculture, infrastructure and healthcare.

This proposal could mark a significant shift in public finance should Mahama win.

The hung parliament (2021-2025) has been marked by intense competition, with both the NPP and NDC holding nearly equal power. The 2024 election could slightly tip the balance in favour of one party. Speaker of Parliament Alban Bagbin (NDC) has played a significant role in shaping the legislative agenda, especially as four MPs have vacated their seats due to party and constitutional dynamics.

As Ghana approaches its 2024 elections, voters face a clear choice between the NDC's emphasis on economic reform, social inclusion and anti-corruption, and the NPP's promises of policy reversals and new initiatives under Bawumia. The outcome will shape the country’s future, with key issues such as fiscal discipline, infrastructure and corruption playing decisive roles. stakeholder audit requests, but without success.

The EC, in a press conference, admitted that its IT systems had been infiltrated by unauthorised persons who made changes to voter statuses.

Similar audit calls were made by the ruling New Patriotic Party under the "Let My Vote Count" campaign prior to the 2016 elections. The call was granted, leading to the commissioning of the Justice Crabbe Committee, which investigated and made findings related to deceased names on the voter roll.

Charlotte Osei, the previous EC Chair, recommended periodic stakeholder audits and communicated this to the Interparty Advisory Committee, which is composed of major political parties. Dr Kwadwo Afari-Gyan, the longest-serving EC Chair, also called for auditable election technologies during a national conference, the Accra Dialogue, AB six years ago.

Seth Doe is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Socioeconomic Studies in Accra AFRICA BRIEFING NOVEMBER - DECEMBER 2024

9

COVER STORY

Economic crisis and galamsey debate With inflation, youth unemployment, and environmental issues at the forefront, Ghana's December 7 election promises to be a turning point, writes Jon Offei-Ansah

W

ITH just days to go until Ghana’s general elections on December 7, 2024, the political climate in the country has reached a boiling point. The two main political parties, the incumbent New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), are locked in a fierce battle, each promising to fix the nation’s most pressing issues. Economic hardship, rising unemployment, and environmental crises have become the focal points of the campaigns as voters prepare to make a critical decision about the country’s future. As Ghana heads to the polls, the next government will face mounting pressure to resolve these issues that are leaving citizens frustrated and concerned about their futures.

One of the key issues on voters’ minds is the country’s economic struggles, which have worsened since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. By the end of 2022, inflation had skyrocketed to an astonishing 54 percent, plunging the cost of living to unbearable levels. Prices for everyday goods and services continue to rise, affecting millions of Ghanaians, especially those already struggling to make ends meet.

Despite slight improvements in inflation, the pain is still very real for many citizens who are grappling with a lack of affordable essentials.

The World Bank has warned that up to 850,000 Ghanaians were pushed into poverty in 2022 due to the surge in prices.

This surge in poverty adds to the six million Ghanaians already living below the poverty line. The “new poor” represent a group of people who were once financially stable but are now facing hardships due to inflation, the devaluation of the currency, and the country’s mounting debt crisis. Ghana’s public debt reached over $50 billion by 2023, with little left in government coffers to support vital sectors, prompting the country to seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 10

financial stability.

For many, the NPP’s claims that the country is “on the cusp of transformation” ring hollow. While government officials, including President Nana Akufo-Addo, argue that Ghana’s economic woes are part of a necessary transition, critics of the ruling party contend that the pace of recovery is far too slow. The NPP’s track record of addressing the economic crisis is under heavy scrutiny, and the party faces mounting criticism for its handling of public debt, inflation, and job creation.

On the other hand, the NDC sees this economic turmoil as the result of poor governance and management by the NPP. The opposition party has pointed to the record levels of inflation and increasing

poverty as evidence of the government’s failure to deliver on its promises. The NDC has pledged to reset the economy if elected, offering policies that they believe will alleviate the financial burden on Ghanaians and stabilize the nation’s finances.

However, the NPP has countered these claims by arguing that their policies have already set Ghana on the path to recovery.

The ruling party insists that reforms in areas like education, infrastructure, and energy will pay off in the long run, even if the effects have not yet been fully realised.

Unemployment remains another pressing issue, particularly among young people.

Ghana has one of the highest youth unemployment rates in sub-Saharan Africa, with an estimated 12 percent of

The youth vote has become a crucial battleground

AFRICA BRIEFING NOVEMBER - DECEMBER 2024

COVER STORY NDC pledging to take action.

The NPP has maintained that the smallscale mining sector should not be shut down entirely but rather regulated to prevent environmental damage. While the government has taken steps to combat illegal mining, critics argue that not enough has been done to address the environmental degradation caused by the practice.

The NDC has taken a more hardline stance, calling for a complete ban on new mining licences and stricter regulations on existing mining operations. Party leaders have pledged to close illegal mining operations that fail to meet environmental and safety standards, aiming to protect the country’s natural resources.

The galamsey debate is especially Galamsey has become a major source of concern contentious because of its economic implications. Small-scale miners provide advocating for large-scale job creation young people unable to find work. This jobs and support many local economies, initiatives, focusing on sectors such as has contributed to a widespread sense and shutting down galamsey operations agriculture, technology, and the creative of disillusionment, with many young could lead to significant economic industries. The NDC has also promised to Ghanaians feeling that they have little hardship in certain regions. Nevertheless, improve vocational training to better equip to look forward to within the country’s the environmental damage caused by young people with the skills needed for borders. As a result, there has been a illegal mining is undeniable, and the next today’s job market. marked increase in emigration, with many government will need to strike a balance young people seeking better opportunities The NPP, meanwhile, points to its efforts between economic opportunity and abroad. to provide employment opportunities environmental protection.

The NDC has used the unemployment crisis through the “Nation Builders Corps” As the election approaches, Ghana’s voters and other job creation schemes aimed at to fuel its election campaign, labelling the addressing the unemployment crisis. While face a crucial decision. On one hand, the current government’s efforts as “abysmal” NPP argues that the country’s economy these initiatives have employed thousands, in terms of job creation. Party leaders are is on the brink of recovery, with ongoing critics argue that they have not been reforms and policies that will ultimately enough to significantly reduce the youth lead to long-term growth. On the other unemployment rate. hand, the NDC believes that a fundamental As the elections draw nearer, the youth vote change in leadership is necessary to reset has become a crucial battleground. Many the economy, reduce poverty, and create young Ghanaians are expressing frustration jobs for the country’s growing youth with the lack of job opportunities, and their population. votes will likely be decisive in the outcome While both parties agree that galamsey of the election. and the environmental crisis must be In addition to economic and employment addressed, their proposed solutions diverge challenges, environmental issues have significantly, further highlighting the taken centre stage in Ghana’s 2024 different approaches to governance. For elections. The illegal mining industry, many Ghanaians, these divisions are not known as “galamsey,” has become a major just political but a reflection of the broader source of concern. The practice involves struggles they face in their daily lives. the extraction of gold from unregulated The 2024 Ghanaian elections are more and illegal mines, often using harmful than just a political contest; they represent chemicals like mercury and cyanide that a pivotal moment in the country’s history. pollute water sources and damage the surrounding environment. Rivers across the With an economy in crisis, a generation of country, including major water sources such young people facing bleak job prospects, and an environmental disaster unfolding, as the Ankobra, Tano, and Pra rivers, have been heavily polluted, making it difficult for Ghana’s future is at stake. The choices made on December 7 will determine the communities to access clean water. direction the country takes in the coming Protests and public demonstrations against years. Will voters opt for the continuity galamsey operations have been widespread offered by the NPP or the change promised in the lead-up to the elections, with by the NDC? As Ghana stands at a citizens demanding stronger government crossroads, the outcome of this election intervention. The issue has become a could shape the nation’s future for political flashpoint, with both the NPP and AB decades to come.

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COVER STORY

Opposition leader vows IMF renegotiation to ease economic burden John Dramani Mahama pledges IMF renegotiation, tax cuts, and debt restructuring to ease Ghana’s economic crisis, offering a business-friendly approach if he wins December's election, writes Jon Offei-Ansah

W

ITH Ghana’s elections approaching, the main opposition candidate, former president John Dramani Mahama, has announced plans to renegotiate the terms of Ghana’s $3 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme.

Mahama, leader of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), asserts that changes are necessary to reduce taxes, restructure loan repayments, and ultimately, create a stable and growth-oriented economic environment in Ghana.

Mahama has outlined his vision to tackle what he sees as crippling financial policies introduced under the current IMF programme, implemented by President Nana Akufo-Addo’s administration last year. “We must look at rationalising the issue of tax revenues to help the economy as it emerges from a debt crisis,” Mahama says. “Under the current IMF programme, the government is not doing much to reduce expenditure, but is doing everything to increase taxes, and it’s making Ghana an unfavourable destination for business.”

The current IMF bailout came into effect in 2022 as a response to Ghana’s debt crisis. Ghana’s debt ballooned to more than 100 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), leading the government to default on its debts. The programme, which expires in May 2026, included tax hikes, such as a 2.5 percentage point increase in the valueadded tax (VAT), which rose to 15 percent, and a growth and sustainability levy on pretax profit, capped at 5 percent. These measures, Mahama claims, have placed 12

undue strain on Ghanaians and Ghanaian businesses.

“The current measures are unsustainable,” Mahama says. “We’re going to need a new approach that allows Ghana to find fiscal space while pursuing stable economic growth. This IMF programme was the administration’s quick fix for a long-term problem.”

Mahama’s economic proposals have gained traction among voters, as Ghana struggles to recover from a cost-of-living crisis exacerbated by debt and inflation.

Inflation, which peaked at 54.1 percent in December 2022, has eased to 22.1 percent, but economic recovery remains fragile.

Mahama plans to introduce significant tax

reforms that will relieve both consumers and businesses from the burdensome rates introduced under Akufo-Addo’s administration.

‘We have to make Ghana a competitive place to do business again,” Mahama says, adding that his goal is to boost investment and economic growth. “It’s about stabilising the macro environment and creating the right conditions for Ghanaians and investors alike.”

Economic analysts argue that while Mahama’s vision is ambitious, a renegotiation of the IMF programme could pose challenges. Professor Godfred Bokpin, an economist at the University of Ghana Business School, highlights the

Mahama: “Under the current IMF programme, the government is not doing much to reduce expenditure, but is doing everything to increase taxes, and it’s making Ghana an unfavourable destination for business.”

AFRICA BRIEFING NOVEMBER - DECEMBER 2024

COVER STORY measures have drawn criticism from citizens burdened by rising costs and slow economic growth.

Galamsey has become a major source of concern

importance of policy adjustments under the IMF framework. “Whichever party wins the election will have to review the IMF programme,” Bokpin says.

“Adjustments are crucial to increase fiscal space and implement some of the reforms that Mahama and other candidates are advocating. Without flexibility, Ghana risks stalling its economic recovery.”

Another pillar of Mahama’s economic plan is to restructure Ghana’s domestic debt, worth 182 billion cedis ($11.1 billion) maturing in 2026, along with a significant commercial loan payment due before 2028. “We need to look at how we can refinance some of these debts so that we can smoothen out the debt repayment trajectory,” Mahama explains. “Our aim now is stability. How do we bring down inflation, stabilise the macro environment, and protect the value of our currency?”

The IMF-backed reforms have faced mixed reactions. While the programme has contributed to recent debt restructuring, critics argue that it disproportionately impacts ordinary Ghanaians. Many point to rising taxes and inflation as proof that the current administration’s economic policies are insufficient in addressing the challenges facing the population. “The people are suffering, businesses are closing down, and it seems there’s no end in sight,” Ama Osei, a local shop owner in Accra told Bloomberg. “Mahama is speaking about reducing taxes and making life easier. We need that.”

Beyond tax cuts and debt restructuring, Mahama also unveiled his “Big Push” initiative, which includes plans to create a “24-hour economy” to stimulate job growth and raise productivity. The plan advocates for three eight-hour shifts, enabling Ghana’s workforce to operate round-theclock, thereby attracting investment and enhancing economic efficiency. Mahama also aims to channel $10 billion into infrastructure projects in key sectors such as petrochemicals, mining, and transport.

“These are not just ideas but part of a structured plan to revitalise Ghana’s economy,” he has stated. “We’ll be investing in areas with high growth potential, and this will require publicprivate partnerships and foreign investment.

We’re going to make Ghana a good and pleasant environment for investors again.”

Industry leaders and analysts are cautiously optimistic about Mahama’s “Big The former president emphasises that Push” strategy, although some wonder debt restructuring would be a central part about the feasibility of such an ambitious of his discussions with the IMF, should he project given Ghana’s economic constraints. secure victory on December 7. He is also Joseph Nartey, an investment consultant open to extending the fund arrangement, based in Accra, comments that, “The ‘Big if necessary, to accommodate the policy Push’ is a visionary plan. If implemented changes he envisions. "We won’t rule out an extension of the IMF programme if that’s effectively, it could transform Ghana’s economy, but it will depend heavily on what it takes to stabilise our economy,” he securing reliable private sector and foreign says. investment. Mahama’s administration Polling data suggests that Mahama is would need to reassure investors of political the favourite heading into the elections, and economic stability to make this vision with an Accra-based Global InfoAnalytics a reality.”

Ltd. survey showing him at 51.1 percent As Mahama campaigns on the promise against Vice President Mahamudu of economic revival and debt relief, Bawumia’s 37.3 percent. These figures challenges remain. Ghana’s recovery reflect growing discontent with the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), whose austerity process under the IMF programme is

delicate, and any policy shifts may need careful negotiation to avoid destabilising gains made thus far. While the IMF programme has managed to stabilise the currency and slow inflation, many argue that its heavy-handed approach is stifling growth and innovation within the private sector.

Critics of Mahama’s campaign argue that while his policies could offer shortterm relief, they may not fully address Ghana’s structural economic challenges.

“A lot of these promises sound good in theory, but Ghana’s economic troubles run deeper,” says Kwame Mensah, a political analyst at the University of Cape Coast. “A fundamental rethinking of fiscal policy, beyond renegotiating IMF terms, will be necessary for Ghana to see lasting improvement.”

Nonetheless, Mahama’s support appears strong. Voters are signalling their readiness for a change from the current administration’s policies, which they argue are not yielding the expected benefits.

For many Ghanaians, Mahama’s promise to renegotiate the IMF programme and introduce growth-friendly reforms resonates amid rising prices and limited opportunities.

As Ghanaians prepare to vote in December, the election is shaping up to be a critical juncture for the country’s future. The IMF programme represents both a lifeline and a constraint for Ghana’s economy. While it has provided a path out of debt default, the austerity measures it entails have left citizens bearing a heavy burden. Mahama’s proposed policies, including tax relief, debt refinancing, and infrastructure investment, have the potential to alter Ghana’s economic course.

“This election is about the future of Ghana’s economy,” Mahama says. “Our people need relief, our businesses need support, and our future requires a stable and supportive environment for growth. We are ready to make that happen.”

If elected, Mahama’s renegotiation of the IMF programme will not only be closely watched by international financial institutions but will also serve as a litmus test for other African nations grappling with similar debt challenges. For Ghana, this election offers a chance to choose between continuity under the NPP or a potentially transformative agenda under Mahama’s leadership.

AB

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COVER STORY

US visa restrictions a step towards fairer polls Washington to take action against Ghanaians who undermine the democratic process

A

S Ghana prepares for its 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections on December 7, the United States has announced a new visa restriction policy aimed at individuals undermining the country's democratic processes. This initiative underscores the US’s ongoing commitment to ensuring free, fair, and transparent elections in Ghana, a nation known for its stability and democratic legacy in Africa.

The US Department of State made the announcement on October 28, emphasising that these restrictions will apply to individuals who are involved in activities such as electoral manipulation, vote tampering, voter intimidation, or suppressing political opposition and media.

The policy targets specific individuals and, in some cases, their family members, but it is not aimed at the Ghanaian people or government.

The focus is solely on those attempting to interfere with Ghana’s democratic process.

Ghana has long been celebrated for its peaceful transitions of power and its standing as one of Africa’s most stable democracies.

With three decades of uninterrupted democratic practices, it serves as a model for other African nations. The United States, recognising this track record, has praised Ghana’s political achievements, calling its democracy “a model to cherish.”

In its statement, the US Department of State underscored that its decision to impose visa restrictions, if necessary, is a reflection of its commitment to the will of the Ghanaian people and its support for a peaceful, transparent, and credible electoral process. The US emphasized that the policy is designed to ensure that Ghana’s upcoming elections reflect the aspirations of the electorate.

The new policy is implemented under Section 212(a)(3)(C) of the US Immigration and Nationality Act, which grants the State Department the authority to deny visas to individuals believed to be responsible for undermining democratic processes. This includes acts such as manipulating the electoral process, using violence to intimidate voters, or suppressing political opposition and civil society.

The policy also targets actions that could interfere with the media’s ability to report freely and with the rights of citizens to assemble and express their views. By targeting these specific actions, the US aims to ensure that the electoral process is not undermined, and that all Ghanaians are able to participate in a fair and open election.

The visa ban policy will apply to actions both before and after the election, intending to

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However, the US’s position is likely to attract increased international scrutiny on Ghana’s electoral process, potentially putting pressure on local political players to ensure a fair vote. The presence of international observers and diplomatic oversight could help reduce the likelihood of electoral fraud or misconduct.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken

prevent any interference in Ghana’s democratic processes. The US has warned that individuals involved in electoral misconduct, whether by intimidating voters, engaging in violence, or coercing citizens into voting a particular way, will be subject to the restrictions.

In addition, the policy considers those who attempt to silence political opposition, civil society, or the media. Any efforts to prevent political party representatives, voters, or media personnel from expressing their views or engaging in activities aimed at manipulating the election will also be subject to visa sanctions.

The US stance reflects its strong commitment to ensuring that Ghana’s elections are conducted in a manner that is free from interference and in line with democratic principles. This policy provides important international backing to Ghana’s longstanding democratic values.

While the US visa restriction policy sends a clear message about the importance of maintaining democratic integrity, there are questions about its potential impact on electionrelated misconduct. While it targets individuals directly involved in electoral manipulation, its overall effectiveness in curbing election-related abuses could be limited.

The visa ban is unlikely to be a comprehensive solution to the challenges of ensuring a free and fair election in Ghana.

The restrictions mainly target those on the ground who might attempt to manipulate the voting process, but they may not fully address potential systemic issues. If electoral interference is coordinated by high-ranking officials or institutions, the policy may not reach those ultimately responsible for rigging the elections.

For individuals involved in such actions, the inconvenience of a visa ban may not outweigh the perceived benefits of manipulating the election process.

Additionally, senior officials in Ghana may not be as affected by the visa ban, particularly if they have limited reliance on the US for business or travel. This could mean that the policy has more symbolic value than practical consequences for the political elite.

For Ghana’s opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) and many concerned citizens, the US policy offers some reassurance of international oversight. The NDC has expressed concerns over potential electoral manipulation by the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and alleged biases within the Electoral Commission. While the US policy may help bolster confidence in the electoral process, the effectiveness of such measures in actually deterring misconduct will depend on whether voters believe the electoral system is truly free from manipulation.

If voters perceive that the risk of electoral rigging remains, despite international attention, this could impact voter turnout or stability in the post-election period. The policy may help in the short term by providing a sense of global support for Ghana’s democratic process, but its long-term impact will depend on how well Ghana can uphold its electoral integrity.

The US visa restrictions are an important step in ensuring Ghana’s elections remain free from external influence and interference.

However, their effectiveness in preventing election manipulation remains to be seen. While the policy targets individuals directly involved in tampering with the election process, it may not be sufficient to address larger, systemic issues, especially those driven by high-ranking officials or powerful institutions.

For the policy to be fully effective, it would need to be complemented by other measures, such as proactive monitoring by credible, independent observers and an enhanced commitment to transparent electoral processes within Ghana. While the US’s stance provides reassurance of international oversight, the real safeguard against electoral manipulation will come from within Ghana itself, with the active participation of all political actors, civil society, and the electorate in ensuring a fair and free vote.

Ultimately, the US visa restriction policy, while symbolically important, may only partially deter election-related misconduct. For the NDC and those concerned about electoral transparency, this move from the US could offer some reassurance. But for true electoral integrity, it will be the efforts of Ghana’s institutions and people that will ensure a credible and AB transparent election.

AFRICA BRIEFING NOVEMBER - DECEMBER 2024

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Phone: +44 (0) 208 888 6693

ANALYSIS

The world needs a dynamic Africa Of the many stereotypes that we have to deal with in our quest to tell the full story of the continent, none are as grating as the ones that seek to portray it as stagnant, unchanging and predictable, argues Yemi Osinbajo

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HAT Africa has historically been the commodity extraction destination for its colonisers in the industrialised world for generations, is commonplace. But it is perhaps more important to know that today, over 42 per cent of African countries outside of North Africa have laws and policies banning raw export of ores, and insisting on some processing or beneficiation before exports.

Or that in the area of green sources of energy, in the past five years, there has been tremendous growth in the blue and green hydrogen industry, with many green hydrogen projects in Africa reaching Final Investment Decision (FID). Angola, Namibia and South Africa have already invested in this.

Namibia in May last year signed a $10 billion deal with Hyphen Hydrogen Energy to continue with advanced feasibility studies towards the development of its green hydrogen plant which, when done, will produce 300,000 tons of green energy annually using wind and solar.

Angola is set to become the first exporter of green ammonia to Germany by 2025. The full capacity of its green hydrogen plant is planned to produce 280,000 tons annually, and South Africa is planning to produce five million tons of green hydrogen annually by 2040. Other countries such as Egypt, Kenya, Morrocco

Yemi Osibanjo: “The world needs a strong, dynamic and green industrial Africa”

16

and Mauritania have green hydrogen production goals.

Again, knowing that Africa’s share of global aviation has stayed at two per cent or that its share of global tourism receipts hasn’t risen much from three per cent is not as useful as knowing that between 2022 and 2023, quarter-by-quarter growth in South African domestic tourism exceeded 30 per cent. Or that in a growth spurt between 2005 and 2013, international tourist arrivals in sub-Saharan Africa saw an upsurge of nearly 55 per cent, outperforming every other region.

This is the kind of knowledge about dynamic shifts in a continent that better prepares the mind for the real opportunities that Africa holds for trade, investment and global growth. Real insight about Africa’s ongoing transformation lies in learning to discern the patterns within the patterns, the shift from one lens to another, the powerful undercurrents bubbling beneath the surface. The dynamism that matters.

As the world itself confronts unprecedented turbulence in the coming years, from climate change to artificial intelligence and from the social blowback of a rapidly ageing workforce to novel zoonotic pandemics, the time has come for Africa’s unique role to be better appreciated.

It is already stale news that by 2050, as much as one-quarter of the planet’s workforce is likely to be of African origin.

Of the youthful workforce, in particular, as much as 42 per cent may be in Africa. On this score, both history and present trends amply bear testimony. What many have not fully appreciated however is that rigorous research has shown that merely leveraging on the current pace of development gains could translate that demographic dividend into an additional 15 per cent in GDP volume growth.

An energetic pool of youthful talent, fortified with fast advancing artificial intelligence and the geo-engineering edge of a world desperately in need of a new economic growth paradigm, is an edge that the rest of the world ignores at great risk.

In Nigeria between 2015 and 2019, and between two recessions, we saw the emergence of six unicorns, tech or tech-enabled companies valued at over a billion dollars. All of those companies were founded by entrepreneurs under the age of 35.

Today, there are nearly 500 active tech hubs all over Africa. Just this year, the UNDP supported $1biillon Africa Innovation Foundation was launched.

This is the largest facility in the world for supporting the African innovation ecosystem.

Timbuktu currently has eight sector specific hubs, which are designed to be pan-African Centres of Excellence in their respective verticals; a global African virtual innovation hub is a vital part of the ecosystem.

The major mandate of this panAfrican effort is to fix the fragmented innovation ecosystem, and to enable African innovators to benefit from existing and future synergies. It is also true that Africa alone has the biodiversity reserves and scale of natural capital to reverse the centuries of ecological erosion that the unbridled carbon-laden industrialisation of yesteryears has inflicted on this fragile planet.

But two issues emerge from this: the first is that Africa’s role as either the solution to the climate crisis or its nemesis must be recognised. What does this mean?

Some of the best research we are seeing suggest that if Africa were to pursue the same carbon intensive trajectory of wealthier countries to attain middle to high

AFRICA BRIEFING NOVEMBER - DECEMBER 2024

ANALYSIS correction that may well save this planet.

But how do we get there? Statesmanship is what we badly need. Both the wealthier world and Africa require statesmen and women. It is statesmanship that will enable leaders of the wealthier world to see that the self-interest of nations and regions to the exclusion or disadvantage of others will simply not work. Our world is now far too interconnected.

It is global statesmanship that will enable the recognition that Africa holds the key to global development and must be resourced to do so. We cannot have long arguments about the obvious need for a rethink of the international financial architecture.

From 2005 to 2013, sub-Saharan Africa's tourism grew nearly 55%, leading all regions

income status, it will pump 9.6 million gigatonnes of CO2e into the atmosphere and by 2050, will be responsible for 75 per cent of global emissions; ultimately making it impossible for the world to attain its net zero objectives by 2050.

So, the only way the world can achieve net zero by 2050 is if Africa pursues a climate positive growth plan. Happily, the African Union endorsed this new paradigm last September in Nairobi at the Africa Climate Summit.

The Climate Positive Growth paradigm means, for example, that by using renewable energy for the on-shore processing of 110 million tons of bauxite to aluminium, currently exported as raw bauxite from Africa to Europe and Asia, between 1.3 to 1.5 gigatonnes of CO2e emissions can be avoided annually.

In fact, by aggressively deploying its renewable energy resources, Africa can provide clean energy to all Africans, 600 million of whom currently do not have access to energy and 150 million of whom have unreliable access to energy, at a 30 per cent lower cost and with over 90 per cent lower emissions per kWh, compared to the current stated policy.

But to achieve the goal of climatepositive growth, we need a grand bargain with the Global North. What are the terms of this bargain? African countries on our part will formulate clear science-based national strategies for climate-positive growth.

The strategies will be linked to specific targets for net negative contributions to global emissions. We must create enabling legal and policy environments for investment. The international community on its part will undertake to make the required investments in Africa’s renewable energy and work out trade rules that would give access to favour low emissions production and facilitate the rapid development of fair and equitable carbon markets. This is the realistic win-win pathway to net zero by 2050.

Clearly, then, the world needs a strong, dynamic and green industrial Africa.

Africa is possibly the only region that is free of the vested interests and sunkcost mentality that has locked this planet

A system that currently makes borrowing by Africa eight times costlier than countries of other regions is untenable. Also, how can you fairly value Africa’s GDP today without factoring in the sequestration capacity of our carbon sinks which we are being told to preserve in the interest of global environmental safety?

Who pays for the opportunity cost of not exploiting these resources in the interest of all? For Africa, we need African economic statesmen. Champions of African economic cooperation, prepared to make the selfless sacrifices that individual nations must make to be able to eat from a much bigger and more lasting pie.

Then in addition, for Africa, three things are required: Collaboration.

Collaboration. Collaboration. Our strength lies in our ability to work together. IntraAfrican trade, intra-African infrastructure.

We must work together on trade

there are nearly ‘ Today, 500 active tech hubs all over Africa into an ever-accelerating death spiral of climate disaster, poisoned oceans, nuclear cataclysms and geopolitical deadlocks.

Only an Africa freed from its historic marginalisation can afford to lead the world down the path of genuine course

’

negotiations with the regional blocs of the world.

A fragmented Africa is of little benefit to Africa and surely cannot benefit the world. Certainly, the world needs a AB dynamic and united Africa.

Professor Yemi Osinbajo was Vice President of Nigeria from 2015 to 2023. The above are excerpts from his presentation at the Boma of Africa event held on the sidelines of the 6th African Union mid-year coordination meeting in Accra on July 21, 2024.

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ANALYSIS

Evolving nuclear landscape doesn’t augur well for world peace It is essential that all countries, all regions and indeed all peoples, are engaged, and play a role in efforts to bring about the elimination of weapons of mass destruction, and Africa therefore has a responsibility in this regard, as a critical building block of multilateral disarmament, argues Adedeji Ebo

G

EOPOLTICAL divides have only deepened over the past few years, and cracks in the global disarmament and non-proliferation architecture have become more visible.

As at 2023, global military expenditure reached $2.44 trillion while violence cost the global economy nearly $20 trillion, 13.5 per cent of global GDP. We are in the midst of an ever-evolving nuclear landscape, characterised by the unravelling of global norms against the use, spread and testing of nuclear weapons, as well as dangerous nuclear rhetoric.

Nuclear weapons are featuring more increasingly in national security strategies.

At the same time, the risk of a nuclear weapon being used – whether intentionally, accidentally or by miscalculation – is at the highest point in decades.

States possessing nuclear weapons are avoiding diplomacy, opting rather for armament. Arms spending is at historic levels but there is no commensurate investment in dialogue. All nuclear-weapon states are modernising their arsenals in ways that will make their weapons smarter, more accurate, faster and stealthier.

As the High Representative for Disarmament Affairs has consistently warned, we are already in the midst of a qualitative nuclear arms race. Perhaps more worryingly, we may also be on the edge of a quantitative arms race.

To be clear, therefore, we are in a precarious state; of heightened tensions, extremism, nativism. The ever-increasing levels of military expenditure point more to a culture of war, rather than a culture of peace which is our common goal.

And yet the very first resolution of the UN General Assembly was to call for the elimination of nuclear weapons. It is a tragedy that, nearly 80 years later, some 12,500 nuclear weapons still remain in our world, and it is a world that seems to be driving towards the Bomb rather than away 18

by the Treaty of Pelindaba of 1996, which established the African nuclear- weaponfree zone. Speaking in 2005, then-UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan – a great African – recalled “the strategic and moral value of nuclear-weapon-free zones”.

The deep roots of Pelindaba are worth recalling. They go all the way back to 1964 and the call by the Organisation of African Unity for a treaty to ensure the denuclearisation of Africa. The Treaty of Pelindaba is a testament to Africa’s leadership and commitment to a world free of nuclear weapons.

The Treaty of Pelindaba established the African nuclear- weapon-free zone

from it.

When it comes to nuclear weapons, its use would have global ramifications. A single nuclear bomb can destroy a whole city, not to mention jeopardise the natural environment and lives of future generations through its long-term catastrophic effects.

It is therefore essential that all countries, all regions and indeed all peoples, are engaged, and play a role in efforts to bring about their elimination.

Africa therefore has a responsibility in this regard, as a critical building block of multilateral disarmament.

As nuclear weapons threaten everyone, it is too important to be left to nuclear weapon states (NWS) alone. It is incumbent on all of us to work towards this goal, including by calling for NWS to maintain and accelerate the implementation of their disarmament commitments.

The world needs to hear – and would benefit from hearing – Africa’s voice on these issues. It is however worth emphasising that while the nuclear threat is global, regional contexts differ. It is important to locate regional particularities within the global context.

Africa’s proactive stance against the Bomb is encapsulated in, and embodied

But we are no longer in 1964, and it is not enough to recall glory of past leadership. We must sustain, consolidate and enhance Africa’s capacity and capability to fully live up to its impactful potential in the future.

In this regard, while the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) has emerged as a major instrument for Africa’s contributions to the disarmament, non- proliferation and arms control agenda – and its legitimacy is beyond doubt – it is still in its early stages. The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) remains the main pillar of multilateralism in this area. It means, practically therefore, that critics and supporters of the TPNW need to find a way of coexisting, in which they can acknowledge their differences but continue to work on the search for common ground.

The Pelindaba treaty should not be the final destination at which we have permanently and definitively arrived, but rather a significant milestone that set the basis for further action in Africa’s stance against the Bomb. A decade ago, the African Group called for meaningful progress towards a nuclear weapon-free world at the 2014 Vienna Conference on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons. That conference was instrumental in building momentum and support for convening TPNW negotiations.

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ANALYSIS of Africa’s population are under the age of 25, the youngest population in the world.

The very first resolution of the UN General Assembly was to call for the elimination of nuclear weapons

Less than one year after the TPNW was adopted in 2017, the further Ordinary Session of the Conference of States Parties to the Treaty of Pelindaba called upon AU Member States “to speedily sign and ratify the [TPNW]”. A year later, the AU Peace and Security Council adopted a communiqué reiterating this call.

Today, well over 60 per cent of African states have signed or ratified the TPNW. This is commendable but we can do even better. We must remain constantly reminded of the sanctity of the three pillars of the NPT as the foundation of the nuclear non-proliferation regime: non- proliferation, disarmament and the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

The future of the planet literally belongs to the youth. We must support African youth to engage on this issue, especially bearing in mind that 60 per cent

Nuclear arsenals continue to grow THE Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) launched its annual assessment of the state of armaments, disarmament and international security in June this year. Key findings are that the number and types of nuclear weapons in development have increased as states deepen their reliance on nuclear deterrence.

The nine nuclear-armed states – the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) and Israel – continued to modernise their nuclear arsenals and several deployed new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2023.

Of the total global inventory of an estimated 12,121 warheads

We should support and promote the role of the youth in disarmament and non-proliferation, including through disarmament education, professional networks and talent pipelines. By so doing, we ensure that African voices are heard, and that Africans are part of decisionmaking at the highest levels.

It is encouraging that African youth are eager and invested in global efforts to advocate for the elimination of weapons of mass destruction. Youth-led and youth-inclusive organisations, such as Youth4TPNW, provide a platform for young people from Africa to learn about nuclear disarmament and acquire tools and knowledge to contribute to the field.

African youth also participate actively in the Office for Disarmament Affairs’ youth engagement programmes, providing unique regional perspectives to strengthen approaches to build a safer world for everyone, everywhere, and enriching networks developed as part of the Youth Champions for Disarmament Training Programme and the Youth Leader Fund for a World Without Nuclear Weapons.

Africa, as we know, occupies a marginalised role in the global political economy, with implications for the weight the continent brings to multilateralism. in January this year, 9,585 were in military stockpiles for potential use. An estimated 3,904 of those warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft – 60 more than in January 2023 – and the rest were in central storage.

Around 2,100 of the deployed warheads were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles.

Nearly all of these warheads belonged to Russia or the US, but for the first time China is believed to have some warheads on high operational alert.

Africans against the bomb HISTORICALLY, global nuclear discourse has been dominated by Western-centric perspectives. However, Africa’s contributions and experiences have significantly influenced the evolution of nuclear disarmament efforts.

It is therefore important to emphasise that the effectiveness of Africa’s stance against the bomb will depend, to a large extent, on the cohesion, the collectiveness, the togetherness of Africa’s agency in multilateral discourses. Africa needs a common voice.

Disarmament is about people coming together to take action. It is about Africans coming together to take action against the Bomb. The impact of such action would be most effective when Africa has a common cause and a common agenda. Without a common front on this issue, the result would be dissipated agency that is not impactful which would leave the continent further marginalised.

While we can create positive change, we must bear in mind that reinforcing such change requires adherence by states to agreed international norms, treaties and other forms of cooperation which ultimately depend on trust, solidarity and universality between states. Trust, solidary and universality represent the oxygen of multilateralism without which a culture of peace is not attainable.

Yet, the UN Secretary-General has remined us in his New Agenda for Peace that this oxygen is increasingly in short supply. We must therefore collectively do all we can to enhance the prospects for building trust, solidarity and universality.

This conference brought to light Africa’s historical and ongoing leadership in the pursuit of a nuclearfree world, while also examining the continent’s position within the emerging Third Nuclear Age. It underscored Africa’s historical and ongoing contributions to global nuclear disarmament.

By bringing together scholars, policymakers, and civil society representatives, the conference fostered a nuanced understanding of Africa’s role in the global nuclear order and inspire future initiatives towards a nuclear-free world. It highlighted Africa’s agency in the Third Nuclear Age and provided a platform for African voices to shape the global disarmament agenda. www.

AB africansagainstthebomb.com

Adedeji Ebo is Director and Deputy to the High Representative for Disarmament Affairs. The above are excerpts from his presentation at the virtual conference organised by Africans Against the Bomb in September.

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AU ramps up youth activities for the future The creation of the WiseYouth Network is meant to empower young leaders in Africa to identify and address early warning signs of conflict, participate in national and local mediation processes, and develop strategies to mitigate tensions, writes Chelsea Cohen, who is one of the first intakes of the Network

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FRICA is a continent of youthful promise. With over 60 per cent of its population under the age of 25, according to UN figures, it is clear that the future of the continent is intricately tied to its youth.

everyday needs. When youth are empowered to take part in peacebuilding, they can challenge traditional hierarchies, bridge generational divides and introduce new approaches to resolving long-standing conflicts.

This demographic surge is more than a statistic; it represents a vibrant opportunity for peacebuilding, conflict prevention and transformative development. Yet, for these opportunities to translate into tangible progress, Africa must recognise and harness the potential of its youth as critical stakeholders in conflict resolution and preventive diplomacy. The African Union (AU), as the primary continental organisation for peace and security, has stepped in to play a pivotal role in ensuring that young voices are not just heard but are central to the peacebuilding agenda.

In the wake of all the current violence surging across the continent, it is time to focus on preventive diplomacy and mediation, which address the root causes of conflict before they escalate into violence.

Here, youth have a unique advantage.

Over the past years, the narrative surrounding African youth has often been dominated by concerns over unemployment, migration and vulnerability to radicalisation. However, this narrow focus ignores the powerful role that young people can – and do – play as peacebuilders, mediators and in conflict prevention.

Across the continent, youth have led grassroots movements, facilitated dialogues in conflict-prone areas and acted as bridges between divided communities. Their role in peacebuilding is not a theoretical ideal but a reality in places like South Sudan, where youth organisations have been at the forefront of reconciliation efforts; and in Nigeria, where young activists have worked tirelessly to promote social cohesion in regions affected by Boko Haram.

This shift from seeing youth merely as recipients of peace processes to recognising them as active participants is critical. Young people bring innovative perspectives, technological know-how and a deep understanding of their communities' 20

As digital natives, young Africans are adept at using social media and technology to monitor emerging tensions, spread messages of peace and mobilise communities in support of non-violent solutions. For instance, during electoral tensions in several African countries, youthled online campaigns have played a crucial role in advocating for peaceful dialogue and countering inflammatory rhetoric.

The AU has recognised the importance of involving youth in peace and security through previous initiatives like the AU Youth Division and the Youth, Peace and Security (YPS) agenda. These efforts are designed to ensure that young people have a seat at the table in discussions about Africa's future; after all it is the youth that will drive Agenda 2063.

across all five regions of Africa. The WiseYouth network, established by AU heads of state, serves as a subsidiary mechanism of the Panel of the Wise, aimed at strengthening youth engagement in preventive diplomacy, mediation, dialogue and peace processes in Africa.

This partnership serves as a conduit for integrating youth perspectives into continental peace processes. This formal association allows young Africans to directly engage with AU structures, participate in diplomatic efforts and shape the continent’s approach to conflict resolution.

Such partnerships are crucial because they move beyond token representation.

They allow youth to be directly involved in shaping the policies that affect their lives and communities. The AU has an opportunity to deepen this relationship by investing more in youth-led initiatives, providing mentorship and ensuring that youth representatives are integral to

Its most recent addition to mitigating conflict – which will lead to a peaceful continent – lies with the creation of the WiseYouth Network as part of its African Youth in Conflict Prevention and Mediation programme. This new system is meant to empower young leaders to identify and address early warning signs of conflict, participate in national and local mediation processes, and develop strategies to mitigate tensions.

The composition of this network, consists of 20 youth and five experts from across the continent who are doing remarkable work in peace and security

Chelsea Cohen: ‘the time to invest in Africa’s youth is now’

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ANALYSIS With such initiatives in place, these platforms provide a glimmer of hope to bridging the generational gap and bring youth to the table. They create the space for young people to participate in peace dialogues and also ensuring they have the resources, training and support necessary to lead these efforts.

Capacity-building programmes in negotiation, conflict analysis and diplomacy can empower young Africans to become effective agents of peace. It is also up to the youth to use their platform in a constructive and meaningful way, whether it’s by advocating for policies, programmes and initiatives that promote youth development, inclusion and collaboration on the African continent. We may be diverse, but we are one.

The AU’s move, now seeing youth as agents of change and a resource to be mobilised, is highly commended. Their energy, resilience and creativity make them ideal partners in the continent’s journey toward sustainable peace and development.

By strengthening the partnership between the AU and its young people, Africa can turn its demographic advantage into a force for stability and progress. The vision of Silencing the Guns in Africa, as articulated by the AU, is within reach, but it requires the active involvement of the continent's youngest citizens.

Chelsea Cohen embraces African unity

decision-making processes in conflict prevention and resolution.

Although significant challenges remain, many young people across Africa continue to face barriers to meaningful participation in formal peacebuilding One to watch for the future CHELSEA Cohen from South Africa is a socio-political criminologist with extensive experience in peace and security. She focuses on conflict prevention, mediation and peacebuilding initiatives across Africa.

Chelsea's expertise lies in conducting in-depth research and analysis on governance, peace and security issues across Africa, translating her findings into actionable policy recommendations for governmental and non-governmental organisations at various levels. Her work has included designing and implementing research

processes. To overcome these challenges, this concerted effort by the AU to create more spaces for youth engagement may help bridge the gap between policy rhetoric and actual implementation at the grassroots level, where many of Africa’s conflicts play out. projects, leading capacity-building initiatives and disseminating research findings through various publications and policy engagement events. She is skilled in stakeholder management, building strong networks across various sectors to advance peacebuilding agendas.

She has worked with leading organisations including the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), the Life and Peace Institute, and most recently has become one of the initial members of the WiseYouth Network of African Union, contributing significantly to peace processes and policy

When youth are empowered to contribute to peacebuilding and conflict prevention, they not only secure their future but also shape a peaceful, prosperous Africa for generations to come.

The time to invest in Africa’s youth is now – and the returns will be transformational. recommendations at continental, regional and national levels.

A dedicated advocate for inclusivity, Chelsea has focused on integrating youth voices in peace processes and addressing the specific needs of women in conflict settings. Her commitment to continuous improvement is reflected in her active pursuit of professional development and her engagement with diverse organisations dedicated to fostering peace and security across the African continent.

Chelsea holds a Master's degree in Criminology, Law and Society from the University of Cape Town. AB

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‘Going back to our roots’ The respected Nigerian historian, Toyin Falola, used the 2024 Amo Lecture at the University of Ghana in October to inaugurate a new academic field, African Ancestral Studies, which, he argues, will guide development in contemporary African nations.

The lecture highlights the links between traditional knowledge and current issues, demonstrating how ancestral practices could offer lasting solutions to modern problems. Africa Briefing reports

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FRICAN Ancestral Studies (AAS) seeks to orient students to the foundational values, ethics, history and philosophy of African life through a reflective examination of indigenous African epistemic knowledge and cosmological and historic coding, according to Toyin Falola. It will critically interrogate how African ancestry continues to shape prevailing self-understandings, values and worldviews and correct and augment colonially erased or distorted national historical genealogies.

knowledge and alter-modes of being that disrupt hegemonic global narratives.

contribution to the global history of science, art and philosophy.

For many in Africa, as well as those widely scattered throughout the diaspora, genealogy serves as a way to fulfil the powerful psychological need to “go back”, “find out where I came from’”, or “reestablish my African identity”.

At its core is an indigenous, whole and diaspora-centred approach with an emphasis on studying Africa’s past, present and future from the position of ancestry via

In the broader sense, AAS includes recovering indigenous knowledge and histories. Thus, African ancestral studies, rooted in traditions of African epistemological and metaphysical conceptions and paradigms, will cultivate and foster black learners’ ability to know and understand how Africans described, theorised and studied their selves and their worlds and their gods, in ways long before and beyond colonial interventions.

AAS decolonises the lenses of history by correcting this distortion to centre African voices and perspectives. There are silenced voices in the history of Africa’s

This course also aims to address the spiritual and moral aspects of religious systems and then become part of the development of the appreciation of the philosophy and values of Africa – community, interdependence and respect for nature – as alternative ethical paradigms to the challenges of the contemporary environmental crisis.

AAS also promotes Pan-Africanism and global connections. Indeed, stressing their connections and showing how ancestral traditions shared routes, changed and reinvented themselves, and were taken up in the cultural traditions of societies well beyond Africa, the course helpfully promotes a Pan-Africanism that empowers and uplifts a diverse set of histories of cultural production and experience, between the continental and the diasporic.

After all, it shows just how robust and versatile African traditions have proven in their movement from place to place across the Atlantic Ocean from Africa to the Americas and the Caribbean.

AAS related courses include anthropology, history, sociology and archaeology. Traditional courses in the West on either traditional African history or traditional African cultural studies often focus on the political, social or economic

Toyin Falola: ‘a prime aim of the course is to serve as bridges for those desiring to reconnect with their African heritage, identity and legacy’

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ANALYSIS 100,000 years.

This course also helps to balance the current way that Western education tends to marginalise or trivialise African spirituality (or epistemology or moral systems), argues Falola. It will also “reconcile identity in the African diaspora”. Falola argues: “Historically, the transatlantic slave trade and other forms of historic displacements have cut several in the African diaspora off from ties of belonging and identity. Therefore, a prime aim of the course is to provide tools that can serve as bridges for those desiring to reconnect with, explore and define their African heritage, identity and legacy.”

Mansa Musa, one of the richest men in world history

life of African societies either in relation to the struggle of colonisation or postcolonisation or developmental agendas.

In contrast, AAS places the “ancestral” in the middle and makes central a spiritualphilosophical and cosmological dimension.

This includes the centrality of the veneration and reverence for the ancestors (that is, the spiritual life of the ancestors) and the importance of orality (tradition) and its linkage with spiritual practices and influence on contemporary African life and the African diaspora.

Falola argues that one of the ambitious avenues to studying the world from an African vantage point characterises the centrality of the ancestral as a threshold to understanding the self, the communities and society and their cosmological or divine relations. He believes this can also fill an important intellectual gap of people inside and outside the continent of Africa.

While the main goal of the AAS course is to serve as a cultural intellectual medium for both continents, it will also serve an important academic purpose of filling the gaps left by courses like Empires of the Mind or How Europe Underdeveloped Africa, both of which are seen as vital tools for personal, cultural and intellectual An esteemed historian PROFESSOR Toyin Falola is the Jacob and Frances Sanger Mossiker Chair in the Humanities and University Distinguished Teaching Professor at the University of Texas at Austin.

A recipient of over 20 honorary doctorates, an annual conference has

empowerment.

What pushed Falola to launch AAS has been what he sees as a lack of depth on African studies in mainstream curricula. He notes that mainstream education, following a colonial or postcolonial emphasis, has restricted its engagement with Africa to areas such as slavery, colonisation, or contemporary

‘

Pointing out the limits to Africancentred philosophical studies, Falola says that AAS will “give predominantly Western-centric scholarly communities the underexposed opportunity to engage philosophical questions from Africancentred frameworks and fissures”.

He says this “can challenge Western notions of individuality, time, morality and society, leading to alternative, but sometimes commensurable, answers to quintessentially ‘universal’ human

African Ancestral Studies will offer less skewed and more nuanced perspective on Africa’s pre-colonial civilisations

underdevelopment. He argues that this course will offer all learners a much richer, less skewed and more nuanced perspective on Africa’s pre-colonial civilisations, wisdom, traditions, African political thought and Africa’s pivotal role as the cradle of humanity and as a source of the world’s most advanced cultures in the past

been named after him: the Toyin Falola Annual Conference on Africa and the African Diaspora. A combination of associations has created a literary award, the Toyin Falola Prize.

He has contributed to various academic associations, once serving as the President of the African Studies

questions”.

’

He adds: “AAS will help showcase its contributions to, among other subjects, mathematics, astronomy, medicine and forms of government and governance, and demonstrate the logical conclusions of its intellectual traditions, which are too often overlooked within the global academy.”

Association. He has substantially contributed to decolonisation and decolonial studies, including his book Autoethnography and African Knowledge System, which won the 2023 Amaury Talbot Award for the

best book in African Anthropology. AB

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Tribute to a trailblazing African philosopher At the recent 2024 Anton Wilhelm Amo Lecture at the University of Ghana, Toyin Falola spoke about a groundbreaking but under-interrogated philosopher in 18th century Germany. We publish excerpts from the presentation

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NTON Wilhelm Amo (c. 17031759) was a trailblazing African philosopher, intellectual and educator who defied the norms of his age.

Born in West Africa, Amo was enslaved, transported to Europe, and later became the first African to study and teach philosophy at German universities.

Amidst the Enlightenment, Amo’s remarkable journey and groundbreaking works challenged prevailing notions of race, identity and knowledge. His philosophical contributions, though largely forgotten, have been rediscovered, shedding light on the complex intersections of African, European, and diasporic thought.

The slave-turned-scholar’s life began in West Africa around 1700 amidst the complex cultural tapestry of the Gold Coast (present-day Ghana). Born into a region of rich traditions and trade networks, Amo’s early years are shrouded in mystery – his familial roots are difficult to determine, and historical documentation of his life does not extricate him from his enslavement to a time before.

What is known is that at a tender age, he was forcibly taken from his family and community, enslaved and transported to Europe. He arrived in Amsterdam, Netherlands, in 1707 and was gifted to the Duke of Wolfenbüttel-Braunschweig, Anton Ulrich. The duke, a patron of arts and education, supposedly recognised his intellectual potential and provided him with an extraordinary opportunity.

Amo, others were said to have served as servants and potentially exotic human property in the prince’s estate, bolstering his esteem in German high society.

This re-examination certainly upends the worshipful, appreciative light in which references to Anton Ulrich’s impacts on Amo were written. Nevertheless, he was baptised, educated, and in 1727, able to enrol at Halle, a relatively new university that was already popular with its philosophical inquiry.

It was here that he studied philosophy and jurisprudence. This evident academic prowess earned him recognition, and he became known as “the African”.

He navigated complex cultural identities, confronting the contradictions between Enlightenment ideals and the harsh realities of slavery and racism. As he paved a path for himself into academia, Amo withstood different challenges, refusing to submit to the inherent downsides of living a life distant from his native kin.

The publication of his earlier Disputation De jure Maurorum in Europa, or On the Law of Moors, earned him a

In 1730, Amo obtained his Master of Arts in philosophy and transferred to the University of Wittenberg, now merged to become the Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg in the present day, where he studied pneumatology (psychology), physiology and medicine. It is possible that his conversion to Christianity was influential in his intellectual pursuits.

Notably, his receipt of the award of a Master’s degree was attended by the Ulrich family in person of his son, August Wilhelm. Historians believe that this contact was ascertainably sustained till a few years later when his direct handlers died.

In 1733, Amo qualified for another Master’s degree, following this with a doctoral dissertation – “De Humanae mantis apatheia” (On Apathy in the Human Mind) – in 1734. His achievements in the Amo received a comprehensive scholarly environment were remarkable as, education at the duke’s expense, beginning despite the different cultural environment, with basic literacy skills and progressing he thrived solidly, mastering multiple to theological and philosophical studies. languages, including Latin, Greek, This account is contested in literature as it portrays the relationship with the nobility as Hebrew and German. He also engaged with prominent thinkers, such as Christian charitable.

Wolff and Alexander Gottlieb Baumgarten, It has been argued that Amo was not gifted to the duke, a German prince, neither attesting to his profound cerebral capacities.

Amo contributed a unique perspective was the household without a history of to the world of philosophy, merging possession of African slaves or interaction with the institutions behind their trade, such African, European and Christian thought. as the Dutch-West Indian Company. Before Naturally, his experience of slavery played 24

a role in defining his world views.

Anton Wilhem Amo: an example of defiance in an age that had yet to adapt

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ANALYSIS professorship in philosophy, marking a watershed moment in the history of philosophy. This remarkable achievement made him the first African to hold a professorship at a European university, well before others in a deeply stratified environment. The exact year he acquired professorial status appears disputed, but it is known that he held lectures at Halle University from 1736 before moving to the University of Jena in 1739. During his tenure, Amo taught philosophy, focusing on logic, metaphysics and philosophical methodology. His lectures drew students from across Germany, who were attracted to his unique blend of traditional European thought and innovative African perspectives. Amo’s teaching style was characterised by his emphasis on critical thinking, rigorous analysis and intellectual curiosity. Amo’s academic output during this period was equally impressive. His magnum opus, “On the Impassivity of the Human Mind” (1734), presented a nuanced

critique of Cartesian dualism, challenging the prevailing views on the nature of mind and body. This work demonstrated Amo’s mastery of European philosophical traditions and his ability to engage with complex ideas.

In his Treatise on the Art of Sober and Accurate Philosophising (1738), Amo outlined a comprehensive philosophical methodology, emphasising the importance of empirical observation, logical reasoning and intellectual humility. This treatise showcased Amo’s commitment to philosophical rigour and his desire to promote critical thinking.

Amo’s interactions with prominent thinkers of his time further underscored his intellectual stature. His engagement with Immanuel Kant, for instance, could have contributed to Kant’s development of transcendental idealism. Amo’s critiques of Christian Wolff’s rationalism sparked important philosophical debates, demonstrating his ability to engage with leading intellectuals on equal terms.

Despite these achievements, Amo faced significant challenges. Racism and prejudice were pervasive, with some colleagues questioning his intellectual capabilities due to his African heritage.

Financial struggles also plagued Amo, as his patronage relied on the duke’s support, which eventually waned.

These difficulties drove him to depart Jena in 1740, following which documentation of his subsequent years became scant. His woes might have begun with the passing of the sons Anton Ulrich August Wilhelm in 1731 and Ludwig Rudolf, his younger brother, in 1735, who had both assumed stewardship for the African.

The death of his friend, Johann Peter von Ludewig, Chancellor of Halle, in 1742 further complicated his problems. However, it is believed that his return to his African homeland was around 1747, marking the end of his decades abroad.

Amo’s academic legacy is profound. He pioneered African-European philosophical dialogue, challenging Enlightenment assumptions about race and knowledge.

His work inspired future generations of African intellectuals, demonstrating that African perspectives could enrich European philosophical traditions as opposed to the norm of the other way around.

He further introduced the concept of “sensitive knowledge” (cognitio sensitiva), emphasising the role of sensory experience in knowledge acquisition.

He argues that knowledge is derived from both rational reflection (cognitio rationalis) and sensory observation.

This concept bridges the gap between rationalism and empiricism, engaging with debates sparked by philosophers like Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz and John Locke. However, while his works impacted the products of reputable German scholars, his philosophical contributions mysteriously faded into the background until the 20th century, when scholars like Jacob Emmanuel Mabe and Kwasi Wiredu rediscovered his works.

Recent studies have reevaluated Amo’s significance in the history of philosophy, recognising his innovative perspectives on knowledge, reality and African-European philosophical dialogue. It is equally important to emphasise that there appeared to have been subtle selectiveness in the attribution of certain philosophical thoughts to an African professor, hence the scarce mention of Amo in the field. If anything, a variety of thoughts in which Amo had previously laid foundational arguments were attributed to native European philosophers. Plagued, therefore, by the challenges of integration into a society that could only go so far to accommodate him, the “African Father of German Enlightenment” pleaded his way back to Africa via the Dutch West Indian Society.

At home, he seems to have been disillusioned by the lack of intellectual circuits with which he could relate, corralling him into an isolated life. He is reported as having relocated to the Dutch fort in Axum, Ghana, where he would later die in 1753. Nevertheless, Amo’s early impacts as an African thinker are incontestable. He had written earnestly on the rights of slaves nearly two centuries before rights movements emerged across Europe and America to challenge social injustices. His philosophical outputs also displaced the supremacist idea of white intellectual superiority as he adeptly learned and debated against very influential submissions of its most revered thinkers.

Amo’s life, though short, was an example of defiance in an age that had yet to AB adapt.

Th Anton Wilhelm Amo Lecture is organised annually by the Merian Institute for Advanced Studies in Africa (MIASA) in collaboration with the Institute of African Studies and the Department of Philosophy and Classics at the University of Ghana.

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Elusive peace in Mozambique After Mozambicans cast their votes in their presidential election on October 9, many felt a renewed hope for the nation's future, but this was soon eclipsed by violence arising from allegations of electoral fraud, writes Olinda Mabunda

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S national insecurity escalates in Mozambique, it is high time that Mozambicans view their country as a unified entity rather than a fragmented state beset by violent conflict.

Cabo Delgado, located 2,500 kilometres from Maputo, has frequently dominated international headlines. However, evidence indicates that the insurgency which began in 2017 is merely a symptom of the broader human insecurity present throughout the country, making it a fertile ground for violence.

Despite extensive training for police officers, an essential aspect of peace has been overlooked in their understanding of security, particularly regarding civilians.

The police have been conditioned to heed "ordens superiores" or orders from above, prioritising the protection of those in power over ensuring the safety of the citizens they are meant to serve.

affiliation. Mozambican society is united by a profound love for land and a collective desire for justice and peace.

Overall, peace in Mozambique means the ability to coexist, sharing space and resources equitably. The current political tensions have highlighted a level of solidarity unprecedented in the country’s history, potentially heralding a new era of cohesion in Mozambique.

The recent post-election violence has revealed a number of noteworthy actors emerging day by day. The primary actors are Venâncio Mondlane and the FRELIMO party.

Mondlane, a presidential candidate and opposition leader supported by the Optimist Party for the Development of

Mozambique (PODEMOS), claims to have won the 2024 presidential election and is currently running his campaign against the government via Facebook while in hiding. In contrast, FRELIMO, the ruling party since 1975, faces accusations of crimes against humanity, electoral fraud and deploying Rwandan soldiers to kill civilians, as well as the assassination of two senior members of the opposition.

Secondary actors predominantly include the brave Mozambican youth who are protesting for change. Data from across the country indicate that the youth did not vote for the candidate claiming legitimacy.

This disillusionment has driven them to join peaceful protests, risking their safety.

The police have resorted to using tear gas

The conflict dividers in Mozambique stem from sources of tension and polarisation within governmental bodies and the civilian population. Among various dividers, the primary issue is the political tension escalating due to allegations of electoral fraud by the ruling party, FRELIMO, which has led Mozambican law enforcement to respond to peaceful protests with deadly force.

Following the arrival of Rwandan soldiers in Cabo Delgado, the FRELIMOled government has deployed these troops to Maputo, reportedly aiding in violent crackdowns on peaceful demonstrators, including home invasions resulting in fatalities in the Massinga district. Furthermore, socioeconomic marginalisation and corruption have exacerbated human insecurity, leading to violent conflicts.

At this critical juncture, conflict connectors are proving difficult to identify. However, Mozambicans’ shared nationality has, during these times, overshadowed race, tribe and political 26

After Rwandan soldiers arrived in Cabo Delgado, the FRELIMO government deployed them to Maputo, reportedly assisting in violent crackdowns on peaceful protesters.

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ANALYSIS in civilian homes and live ammunition against citizens, with visual evidence showing police shooting civilians and restricting movement into Maputo.

It is also important to acknowledge the disappointment felt by Mozambican citizens towards two significant figures, Graça Machel, the widow of the first leader of the country, Samora Machel, and Joaquim Chissano, who took over from Machel when he died in a plane crash in 1986. Despite their esteemed reputations in the international community for their peacebuilding efforts, their silence in the face of the current crisis, given their positions within FRELIMO, has eroded the trust of the youth in these respected figures.

Mondlane effectively utilises social media, particularly Facebook livestreams, to mobilise citizens, share his vision and protest against electoral fraud, garnering significant trust and support. He has also secured national and international financial backing, bolstering his influence. Mondlane embodies referent power (inspiring public trust), expert power (insight into Mozambique’s issues) and informational power (knowledge of government affairs). Conversely, FRELIMO employs police forces armed with tear gas and

Mondlane rallies his supporters by organising protests to highlight human rights abuses, electoral fraud, and politically motivated killings

to return stolen funds, promoting the potential for reconciliation. FRELIMO has also hinted at negotiating over the outcome of the election and offering financial settlements to Mondlane, although the prospects for peace from this offer remain The party is also notorious for structural uncertain. violence through corruption and has a The risks of escalation include the legacy of eliminating whistleblowers, ongoing insurgency in Cabo Delgado, maintaining a façade of legitimate power kidnappings for ransom, organised after ruling since independence in 1975 crime and the presence of Rwandan and claiming that 70 per cent of the military forces, which have prompted the population voted for its candidate, Daniel Mozambican community to flood Paul Chapo. FRELIMO rewards loyalists, Kagame’s social media, demanding the creating an elite class that sustains its withdrawal of his troops from Mozambique. authority by providing tax breaks, jobs for Additionally, the global climate crisis loyalists' children and international medical further heightens instability. insurance for Members of Parliament.

For the majority of Mozambicans, they When analysing the drivers of conflict would like to see immediate action on the and peace, it is crucial to note that following: the deployment of peacekeepers what is needed to resolve the conflict is to ensure that police do not violate the peacekeeping rather than any other form rights of demonstrators; withdrawal of of tackling the fragile situation. Mondlane Rwandan soldiers from Maputo; the arrest mobilised four million Mozambicans in of those responsible for oppression and Maputo on November 7 to protest against murder; peaceful and inclusive transition of the FRELIMO government, which led power; and systematic reform of the state to to further bloodshed, thus making a uphold democracy and security reform. peacekeeping mission urgent.

Opportunities for de-escalation have Mondlane drives his supporters by emerged through legal action against the organising protests to expose human rights government, civil society engagement abuses, electoral fraud and politically via data collection and reporting to motivated killings. Meanwhile, FRELIMO international bodies and increased social exacerbates tensions by deploying lethal media coverage, offering hope for peaceful force through the police and sending in solutions.

Rwandan soldiers.

Mozambique stands at a crossroads, and On the other hand, a notable peace the world is watching. Now is the time to driver is Mondlane’s advocacy for amnesty rally behind peace, justice and democracy. for corrupt FRELIMO officials who agree military equipment to suppress peaceful demonstrations. These actions have led to more than 15 fatalities, including that of a newborn baby. FRELIMO wields coercive power, using violence against civilians as a means of control.

Olinda Mabunda is involved in conflict resolution and peace activities in Mozambique.

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AB

27

ANALYSIS

South Sudan: democracy still on trial In September, the South Sudanese government postponed elections until 2026, representing a troubling setback for the democratic process in a country that has not gone to the polls since gaining independence 13 years ago, writes Janet Sankale

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HE postponement of South Sudan’s first ever elections by the government represents a troubling setback for democracy, further eroding the trust of the country’s citizens.

The government cited delays in carrying out what it argues are key prerequisites for elections: a national census, drafting of a permanent constitution and political party registration among others.

Although the R-ARCSS has proved durable and prevented a return to all-out war, the transitional government has been marred by extensive corruption, disputes over power-sharing, delays in integrating armed groups into national forces, slow constitutional reforms and persistent intercommunal violence, underscoring the fragility of the peace process.

South Sudan's leaders have entrenched impunity and exacerbated insecurity, actively obstructing the nation's path to democracy. Ongoing inter-communal conflicts continue to undermine stability in the country and the RTGoNU has failed to resolve outstanding issues and expedite the implementation of the R-ARCSS. The recent postponement has sparked

However, given that the government bore primary responsibility for carrying out these actions, there is understandable scepticism about whether these prerequisites will be fulfilled ahead of the new election date. At the same time, credible elections remain crucial for South Sudan’s democratic future.

Since gaining independence in 2011, South Sudan has not held any elections.

Originally slated for 2015, elections were not held due to the outbreak of civil war just two years prior. The 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (ARCSS) provided for elections at the end of a 30-month transition, but war erupted once again in 2016 before they could be organised.

In 2018, the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS), ending the new round of violence, was seen as a beacon of hope. The agreement provided for elections to be held at the end of a three-year transitional period.

But progress has been slow. A Revitalised Transitional Government of National Unity (RTGoNU) was established in 2020, which was expected to facilitate political dialogue and prepare for elections.

However, a roadmap endorsed in August 2022 extended the transitional period, and, with it, elections by 24 months to enable the implementation of key outstanding tasks in the R-ARCSS. 28

The rivalry between President Salva Kiir (right) and Vice President Riek Machar dates back to their 2013 fallout, which sparked the civil war

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ANALYSIS widespread disappointment and scepticism in the populace. Many view this delay as a politically motivated manoeuvre to prolong the current leadership's grip on power.

The ongoing rivalry between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar goes back to their fallout in 2013, which led to civil war. Despite a 2020 unity agreement intended to end six years of conflict, mutual distrust and power struggles between the two leaders threaten the full implementation of the R-ARCSS. This has drawn increasing ire from the international community, which has expressed frustration over the lack of effective governance and commitment to democratic processes.

The consequences of this political inertia are dire. Civilians are caught in the crossfire of a leadership struggle that shows no signs of resolution, leading to a deteriorating security situation.

Furthermore, the political impasse has intensified the already dire humanitarian

‘

South Sudan's leaders have entrenched impunity and exacerbated insecurity

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crisis, with millions of South Sudanese facing acute food shortages and lack of access to essential services. The government's inability to address these fundamental needs highlights a troubling disregard for the welfare of its citizens.

outlined in the revitalised agreement. These include restructuring national institutions, reforming the security sector, strengthening electoral processes and enhancing governance structures to create a conducive environment for free and fair elections.

The situation is further exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in neighbouring Sudan, which has posed challenges to export of South Sudanese goods (particularly oil) and displaced millions, straining resources.

It will also require management of local conflicts that might erupt around the demarcation of specific districts. However, the additional time ahead of the 2026 polls will only be effective if the parties exhibit genuine political will and allocate adequate resources to ensure the credibility of the elections as scheduled.

The Tumaini Peace Initiative offers a path for building consensus and promoting political reconciliation. Facilitated by the Kenyan government and the Community of Sant’Egidio, the talks have successfully brought together various holdout factions and the government with the aim of restoring peace and stability in the country. The Initiative includes the South Sudanese government and the Holdout Groups – rebels who opposed the R-ARCSS in 2018.

When President William Ruto hosted the South Sudanese sides in Nairobi on November 11 to resume the stalled July peace talks, the absence of the South Sudanese government delegation raised concerns. If the negotiations continue to focus solely on elite interests without addressing the underlying issues, they risk becoming a mere facade for power struggles rather than a means of building peace.

As South Sudan navigates this critical juncture, the African Union (AU), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the international community must closely monitor developments and hold the government accountable for delivering on its promises. The failure to implement the key provisions of the peace deal such as the constitution-making process, the registration of political parties, the holding of a census and an integrated security plan, will not only jeopardise the political stability but also pose severe humanitarian risks. South Sudanese deserve a transparent and inclusive electoral process, and any further delays would be a disservice to their aspirations for peace and democracy.

South Sudanese leaders must exhibit authentic political will, which is currently lacking. The commitment to fully implement the peace agreement remains superficial, as leaders prioritise their political survival over the pressing needs of their citizens. This self-serving approach has not only stalled the democratic transition but also exacerbated ongoing conflicts and humanitarian crises.

There is now the need to create conditions conducive to free and fair elections, including delivery of key commitments under the R-ARCSS. An inclusive, transparent and participatory political process should be constructed, including the Tumaini talks. The RTGoNU must act decisively and adopt a A fundamental shift in priorities is comprehensive approach to set South Sudan essential; leaders must prioritise the welfare on a sustainable path toward democratic of the nation and its people to foster a stable transition and end the repeated cycle of and democratic South Sudan. Creating a election delays. safe and inclusive civic space is crucial for Since premature or ill-managed rebuilding public trust, breaking the cycle elections could risk triggering violence, of continuous transitions and establishing it is imperative to prioritise the reforms sustainable peace.

AB Janet Sankale is with Africans for the Horn of Africa in Nairobi AFRICA BRIEFING NOVEMBER - DECEMBER 2024

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ANALYSIS

Trump 2.0: how Africa fits into Trump’s global playbook Jon Offei-Ansah assesses the potential impact of Donald Trump’s return to the White House on Africa’s political and economic landscape amidst the US-China rivalry

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ITH Donald Trump poised to return to the White House, African nations face the prospect of another recalibration in their foreign relations. His first term was marked by significant shifts in US foreign policy, including a focus on "America First" which reshaped trade, aid, and diplomatic priorities. As the geopolitical landscape evolves, particularly with the intensifying competition between the US and China, Africa finds itself at a strategic crossroads, where Trump’s second term could reshape the continent’s political and economic trajectory.

The geopolitical competition between the US and China is one of the defining issues of the 21st century, and Africa is at the centre of this rivalry. For years, China has expanded its footprint in Africa, leveraging its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to secure massive infrastructure investments across the continent. These projects have included railways, roads, and ports, as well as extensive loans to African governments, especially in countries rich in natural resources.

Trump’s first term was marked by a more restrained approach to Africa, largely taking a backseat while China capitalised on its growing influence. This stance was seen by many as a missed opportunity, particularly as the US faced challenges in engaging with Africa on issues ranging from trade to security.

However, in Trump’s second term, Africa is likely to be viewed as a critical battleground in the US-China rivalry. A strategic pivot by the US is anticipated, with increased investments aimed at countering China’s dominance. This shift is particularly evident in initiatives like the US-backed Lobito Corridor, a railway project linking the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Zambia, and Angola. This infrastructure project is intended to create alternative trade routes for key resources such as cobalt and lithium, both essential for the electric vehicle industry, where China has gained a strong foothold. Peter 30

Trump’s first term was marked by a more restrained approach to Africa

US aid has historically supported essential sectors in Africa, particularly healthcare, education, and public health.

Programmes targeting diseases like HIV/ AIDS and malaria, along with efforts to combat malnutrition and improve maternal However, experts caution that while health, have all benefitted from American the Lobito Corridor represents a promising contributions. However, with Trump’s start, the US must broaden its engagement across multiple sectors to make a significant scepticism towards foreign aid, African nations may need to seek alternative impact. Dr. Caroline Ndlovu, a political sources of funding. Uganda, for example, economist at Stellenbosch University, has already begun exploring options emphasised that counteracting China’s with other foreign donors to mitigate the influence requires long-term, multifaceted potential loss of US support. investments that go beyond isolated Professor James Nwajiuba from infrastructure projects.

Nigeria’s University of Ibadan warned that Trump’s “America First” policy also the reduction in US aid could reverse the extended to foreign aid. In his first term, progress made in Africa’s healthcare sector, Trump significantly reduced foreign particularly in the fight against HIV/AIDS. aid, particularly to countries he deemed “If the US pulls back its funding, it would ungrateful or misaligned with US values.

While Congress resisted some of these cuts, mean that African countries would have to find other means to sustain vital health the threat of reduced aid continues to loom large, especially with a stronger Republican programs. The loss of this funding could presence in Congress in the 2024 elections. reverse decades of progress,” he stated.

Similarly, Dr. Eva Mlambo, a health official If Trump implements further cuts, many in South Africa, expressed concern that the African nations, which rely heavily on US withdrawal of US support would severely financial assistance, could face substantial undermine healthcare programs across the challenges.

Pham, a former US envoy to the Sahel, notes that projects like Lobito could allow the US to break China’s near-monopoly on these vital minerals and forge stronger economic ties with African nations.

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ANALYSIS that while Trump’s policies may push African countries to invest more in their own security, the long-term result could be a stronger, more self-sufficient African security apparatus.

continent, setting back decades of progress.

On the trade front, Trump’s protectionist policies could also undermine initiatives like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which has been crucial for many African countries seeking preferential access to the US market. Under AGOA, countries such as Kenya, South Africa, and Ethiopia have been able to export goods such as agricultural products, textiles, and automotive parts duty-free.

However, Trump’s “America First” doctrine advocates for tariffs on foreign-made goods, which could negatively impact African exporters. David Mwangi, a trade advisor in Kenya, expressed concern that a rollback of AGOA would hurt key sectors in the Kenyan economy. “If Trump moves forward with a universal 10 percent tariff, it could harm Kenyan exporters and reduce their competitiveness in the US market,” he warned.

Under Trump, the US foreign policy stance on LGBTQ rights is expected to diverge sharply from that of the Biden administration. Biden’s presidency has seen a strong push for LGBTQ rights globally, with sanctions imposed on countries like Uganda that implement anti-LGBTQ laws.

Trump, however, has been far less willing to challenge African governments on social issues such as LGBTQ rights.

This divergence is likely to be welcomed by many African leaders who view the US push for LGBTQ rights as a form of cultural imperialism. Uganda’s Foreign Minister, Jeje Odongo, has previously stated that African countries should have the autonomy to define their social policies without foreign interference.

“We respect all individuals, but our values should not be dictated by foreign countries,” he remarked. Many African leaders share this sentiment, which may help to solidify their relationship with the US under Trump’s administration.

However, for LGBTQ activists in Africa, Trump’s stance signals a potential setback in their fight for recognition and equality. Lindiwe Mabaso, a Kenyan activist, expressed concern that the lack of US support for LGBTQ rights could embolden governments to pass even more repressive laws. “Without US backing, we fear that our hard-won gains in the fight for LGBTQ rights could be undone, and local governments may feel emboldened to enact harsher policies,” she said.

Another challenge for African nations during Trump’s second term will be navigating the growing influence of Russia on the continent. Russia has increasingly expanded its presence in Africa, providing military assistance to countries like Mali, the Central African Republic, and Sudan, often in exchange for access to natural resources.

Experts warn that while the Lobito Corridor is a positive beginning, the US must expand its engagement across various sectors for a meaningful impact

Trump’s foreign policy in Africa was marked by a pragmatic, often transactional, approach, particularly when it came to security. In his first term, the US focused heavily on counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel, where groups like Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab posed significant threats to US interests. While the Trump administration reduced troop numbers in Africa, it intensified counterterrorism operations, aligning US security objectives with African partners.

Analysts expect a continuation of this strategy in Trump’s second term, with an emphasis on security partnerships where US interests are most at risk. Richard Downie, a senior fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, believes Trump will prioritise security cooperation only where it directly serves US interests, particularly in regions like the Sahel and East Africa.

“Trump’s approach is pragmatic. The US will continue to partner with African nations on security issues, but only when it aligns with our broader strategic goals,” Downie said.

This could mean that African nations will need to take greater responsibility for their own security, with the US focusing more on providing strategic support and less on direct intervention.

Major General Bakari Mohammed, a Nigerian counterterrorism expert, argued

Given Trump’s conciliatory stance towards Russia, there are concerns that the US may not take a proactive role in countering Russian expansion in Africa.

Political analyst Samuel Okeke from Nigeria’s University of Lagos warned that African countries may find themselves caught between the US and Russia, forced to balance their engagements carefully to avoid becoming pawns in a larger geopolitical struggle.

Trump’s return to the White House presents both risks and opportunities for Africa. While some countries may benefit from closer ties with the US, particularly in terms of trade and counter-China initiatives, others may face significant challenges related to reduced aid, shifting trade policies, and fluctuating security support. The next four years will be marked by uncertainty, as African leaders must navigate a rapidly changing global landscape and carefully position their countries to secure the best possible outcomes.

As President Hakainde Hichilema of Zambia noted, "Trump’s focus on countering China could bring more US investment, as long as our interests align."

Ultimately, Africa’s future in the Trump era will depend on the ability of its leaders to remain agile, diversify their alliances, and adapt to the shifting currents of global politics.

The coming years will require African leaders to take a pragmatic approach, balancing their relationships with both the US and China, while remaining vigilant to the rising challenges posed by global power shifts. For Africa, this era could mark a turning point, as the continent navigates the delicate balancing act of engaging with competing superpowers, each with its AB own interests and objectives.

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GENDER

Women bear the brunt of conflict, shut out of peace talks Despite worsening conditions for women in conflict zones, female voices are still shut out of peace negotiations—threatening sustainable solutions, writes Valerie Msoka

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ECENT data reveal that the proportion of women killed in armed conflicts doubled from 2022 to 2023, a grim trend spotlighted at the recent Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) Open Debate. This annual UN discussion, marking the 24th anniversary of UN Security Council Resolution 1325, reflects the global community’s struggle to include women in peace efforts.

Resolution 1325, adopted in 2000, was a groundbreaking step in acknowledging the disproportionate impact of conflict on women while recognising that sustainable peace is unachievable without their voices in decision-making. Yet, despite this landmark initiative, women continue to face heightened violence without a secure role in formal peace negotiations, threatening the durability of peace accords and leaving communities vulnerable to recurring conflict.

The WPS agenda established after Resolution 1325 asserts that women should be central to discussions on security, recovery, and rebuilding. Over the years, nine additional resolutions have enriched the agenda, emphasising the protection of women from gender-based violence (GBV), supporting post-conflict reconstruction, and underscoring women’s inclusion in all peacebuilding efforts. These efforts have made important inroads, particularly in African nations, where women have taken on visible roles in local peace processes.

Yet for each success, deep-seated obstacles persist, highlighting an urgent need to translate policy promises into meaningful action on the ground.

African countries have made notable strides under the WPS agenda, with women gaining visibility in peace processes and gender considerations being increasingly integrated into governance. For instance, the Mano River Women’s Peace Network in West Africa played a key role in ceasefire 32

agreements in Sierra Leone and Liberia, fostering peace across the Mano River basin. Rwanda also offers a powerful example of women’s contributions to national peacebuilding in the wake of genocide. There, women-led reconciliation efforts have paved the way for a lasting peace, bolstered by high levels of female representation in parliament and public institutions. This has cultivated an environment of social cohesion, economic recovery, and legislative accountability.

these examples reveal the significant contributions African women make to conflict resolution and community stability, they are still the exception, not the rule.

Women’s input is often sought in informal community dialogues but overlooked at the formal negotiation tables where high-stakes decisions are made.

While African women have made undeniable gains under the WPS framework, these achievements are continually hampered by structural and societal barriers. Military coups, escalating In Somalia, women-led groups like the Somali Women’s Development Centre have conflicts in West Africa, and a lack of rule of law exacerbate the challenges, leaving worked diligently to mediate community women and girls particularly vulnerable. disputes, support survivors of conflictIn Mali, the DRC, and South Sudan, for related violence, and address issues of GBV. Similarly, in the Democratic Republic instance, rates of GBV remain distressingly high. A UN report in South Sudan found of Congo (DRC), women’s organisations that over 65 percent of women and girls play critical roles by supporting survivors had experienced some form of GBV, of GBV, advocating for justice, and underscoring the dangers women face in driving efforts to reform security policies active conflict zones. that overlook women’s needs. While

Rwanda serves as a strong example of women's pivotal role in national peacebuilding after the genocide

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GENDER Political resistance and harmful cultural norms remain formidable barriers, as many African societies still view security and peace matters as men’s domain. These deep-seated beliefs marginalise women and dismiss their potential contributions to peacebuilding. Limited resources for women-led organisations further impede their impact, as does a lack of funding— an issue exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. As economies reeled from the pandemic’s economic toll, support for women’s peace initiatives, especially those at the grassroots level, became even harder to secure.

To translate the ambitions of the WPS agenda into reality, African governments, the African Union (AU), and local civil society organisations must confront these obstacles head-on. Ensuring that women have an active role in peace processes requires strong policy frameworks. African states could accelerate change by ratifying and enforcing international conventions like the Maputo Protocol, which prioritises women’s rights within African societies.

By adopting these frameworks into domestic law, countries can address GBV more directly and create a more protective environment for women affected by conflict.

Inclusion quotas and gender parity are also crucial to achieving sustainable peace. While evidence indicates that peace agreements are more successful when women are involved, their presence in formal negotiations remains limited.

The AU and national governments could commit to minimum representation for women in peace dialogues and decisionmaking forums, empowering them to take on substantial roles in rebuilding their societies.

Economic empowerment is another cornerstone of effective peacebuilding, as financial independence often enables women to assume leadership roles in their communities. Supporting women’s economic participation requires investment in initiatives that provide training, skills development, and access to credit— especially for women in post-conflict regions. In Rwanda, for example, economic empowerment initiatives after the genocide helped women rebuild their lives and contributed to national stability. International donors, as well as governments, should prioritise funding for grassroots women-led organisations, enabling them to address local issues effectively, foster reconciliation, and

The Mano River Women's Peace Network in West Africa was instrumental in securing ceasefire agreements in Sierra Leone and Liberia

support survivors of conflict-related violence.

The responsibility for achieving gender equality in peace and security does not rest with women alone. Men, particularly those in positions of power, play an equally critical role in driving change. Engaging men in conversations about gender equality and the importance of women’s participation in security can reshape traditional norms and make security institutions more inclusive.

Campaigns led by male champions of women’s rights can support efforts to create inclusive environments where women feel empowered to contribute.

Local and national leaders can also make strides by promoting the value of women’s participation as beneficial for entire communities, encouraging men to advocate for equal representation in peace processes.

Effective peacebuilding and accountability in conflict zones also require robust data collection. Collecting reliable data on GBV, particularly in conflict areas, would enable more precise allocation of resources and the provision of targeted support. This data could help international and national policymakers assess needs, allocate resources, and direct support to areas where it’s needed most. Creating judicial frameworks that prioritise GBV cases would offer justice to survivors and serve as a deterrent against violence, providing a safer environment for women to engage in peace efforts.

Collaboration among African governments, civil society organisations, and international bodies is crucial for overcoming barriers to women’s inclusion.

The AU and national governments can establish platforms that bring together civil society organisations and grassroots women-led groups to share strategies and collaborate on inclusive peace solutions.

Furthermore, international institutions like the UN and European Union can lend technical support, resources, and global platforms where African women peacebuilders can amplify their voices and share their achievements. These partnerships are instrumental in bridging gaps in resources, knowledge, and advocacy, bolstering the WPS agenda’s reach and effectiveness.

Reflecting on 24 years since the adoption of Resolution 1325, the global community is reminded of both progress and the distance yet to be travelled.

A continued commitment to the WPS agenda requires concerted effort, policy reform, and a gender-sensitive approach that acknowledges women as essential contributors to peace.

As Africa moves forward with the WPS agenda, the coming years will demand increased investment, policy commitment, and an unyielding focus on the structural changes required to foster gender-inclusive peace processes. With a united approach, gender-sensitive policies, and the full participation of women, Africa can work towards a future of peace, stability, and equitable governance. By addressing barriers to women’s contributions, African nations can ensure that peace is not only achieved but endures, creating a legacy of resilience and empowerment for AB generations to come.

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Africa’s debt dilemma: pathways to economic independence Agnes Gitau addresses Africa's escalating debt crisis, calling on the IMF, World Bank, and G20 to shift from cyclical relief to lasting reforms that would liberate African nations from dependence on high-cost, high-interest loans

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FRICA’S debt, now topping $1.15 trillion, is a heavy burden on a continent striving for progress. This debt crisis diverts essential funds away from healthcare, education, and infrastructure, slowing development for over 1.4 billion people. As debt levels increase, so do unemployment and inequality, which has repercussions that extend beyond Africa's borders.

To address the crisis, both the African Development Bank (AfDB) and United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) are calling for a paradigm shift in how Africa’s debt is structured.

“We are at a crossroads,” says AfDB President Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, who warns that Africa risks a decade of lost development if punitive lending practices aren’t replaced by more equitable frameworks. The unique nature of Africa's debt, especially the increasing role of private financing, requires tailor-made solutions to secure sustainable progress and alleviate the immense debt burden.

Africa’s debt profile is unique due to its reliance on private creditors, unlike other regions that have traditionally relied on concessional lenders. About 43 percent of Africa’s external debt is held by private creditors, who typically lend through Eurobonds at interest rates of 6-10 percent, far above the concessional rates of 1-2 percent from institutions like the IMF and World Bank. Former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown describes Africa’s debt crisis as “the worst in a generation” and argues for urgent relief. Brown highlights that many African nations are forced to spend more on debt servicing than on essential services, a situation driven by inequitable financial structures.

This high cost of borrowing, often called the “Africa premium,” reflects outdated perceptions of African economic risk. Dr. Adesina contends that these 34

Akinwumi Adesina (left) and World Bank President Ajay Banga: “Africa risks a decade of lost development”

high rates do not align with the reality, as African infrastructure default rates are lower than those in regions such as Latin America and Asia. A report by Moody’s underscores this, showing a 5.5 percent default rate in Africa compared to 8.5 percent in Asia and 13 percent in Latin America. To ensure a fairer financial system, he argues, Africa’s debt terms need to reflect these realities rather than antiquated risk assumptions.

The roots of Africa’s current debt crisis date back to colonial times when financing structures were established to benefit colonial powers rather than local populations. As countries gained independence, they inherited large debts and financing structures ill-suited to sustainable growth. Today, a significant portion of Africa’s debt comprises highinterest private loans. The pitfalls of this approach are evident in Zambia’s recent default. Zambia’s restructuring process under the G20 Common Framework took nearly four years, which Dr. Adesina cites as evidence of the framework's flaws.

Sovereign debt expert Lee Buccheit criticises the Common Framework, describing it as “evaporating debt relief.”

Unlike past frameworks that linked debt relief to economic growth, newer models

often penalise debtor nations if their economies improve, reducing relief just as countries show signs of recovery. Buccheit advocates for flexible relief structures that adjust with economic performance, supporting rather than punishing African countries for successful reforms.

To decrease dependence on costly loans, the AfDB and UNECA promote green bonds, diaspora bonds, and concessional loans as affordable alternatives. Green bonds, for instance, allow African nations to access funds aligned with global climate commitments while attracting investors who prioritise environmental sustainability. These options are gaining traction as cost-effective, sustainable sources of capital that support Africa’s growth goals.

The AfDB recently sought a $25 billion replenishment for the African Development Fund to expand concessional financing options, particularly for Africa’s most vulnerable economies. Former UNECA Executive Secretary Vera Songwe underscores the potential of green bonds, noting they create “win-win solutions” by securing affordable capital that aligns with the continent’s development trajectory and climate ambitions. By adopting such models, African countries can mitigate

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Lasting solutions to Africa’s debt crisis require all major creditors at the table

is often oversimplified as a “debt trap,” despite holding a relatively small share of the continent’s total debt. Much of China’s For Africa’s debt crisis to be sustainably lending in Africa has been directed toward addressed, all major creditors need to be on infrastructure projects, addressing gaps left board, especially China, which holds about by colonial-era financing structures. China’s recent loan cancellations and engagement 12-14 percent of Africa's debt. In recent in collaborative debt relief suggest a years, China has shown signs of increased willingness to adapt its lending practices. engagement, writing off $23 billion in Achieving balanced debt solutions interest-free loans for 17 African countries that support Africa’s long-term interests and pledging $10 billion in IMF Special requires a united approach that includes Drawing Rights. China’s involvement in Zambia’s debt restructuring alongside other all creditors. African institutions argue that comprehensive frameworks should nations reflects a potential shift toward reflect the continent’s unique debt profile, greater collaboration in debt relief. ultimately reducing dependence on volatile The European Union’s €150 billion global financial markets.

Global Gateway initiative is another their reliance on high-interest loans, investing instead in essential services and infrastructure.

example of international support aimed at promoting sustainable development in Africa. Meanwhile, in the US, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen advocates for transparent debt agreements, particularly those involving China, and calls for debt relief strategies that support African countries’ sovereignty and development goals. Together, these initiatives represent a growing awareness of the need for fairer debt solutions that enable Africa’s sustainable growth.

The G20’s Common Framework, which promotes multilateral engagement, represents an initial step toward inclusive debt solutions, though African leaders argue it needs further reforms to integrate private creditors and expedite the restructuring process.

China’s role in Africa’s debt structure

Across the continent, African governments are taking steps to improve debt management, including debt audits, fiscal reforms, and participation in multilateral frameworks. However, many countries face challenges in analysing loan conditions, negotiating terms, and managing restructuring processes. Building capacity in these areas is essential for African governments to make informed decisions that benefit their economies.

Training finance ministry officials in loan analysis could help governments evaluate interest rates, repayment schedules, and currency risks. Developing negotiation skills within finance ministries and central banks would also empower African leaders to secure better terms in debt restructuring negotiations. In addition, strengthening fiscal oversight and implementing

transparent frameworks would build public trust and combat corruption.

Institutions like the AfDB and World Bank are providing support to enhance these capabilities, recognising that strengthening debt management in Africa can promote financial stability and sustainable development. These capacitybuilding initiatives are crucial for Africa’s progress, equipping governments with the skills to navigate complex debt landscapes.

Africa’s debt crisis underscores the need for structural changes that go beyond temporary relief measures. Dr. Adesina envisions an Africa free from dependency on high-interest loans, poised to become a "global economic powerhouse." However, achieving this vision requires international collaboration to dismantle the inequities embedded in global finance and to support African-led solutions.

Upcoming IMF and World Bank meetings present an opportunity for policymakers to adopt reforms that prioritise transparency, equity, and sustainability. Without significant changes to existing debt frameworks, Africa risks remaining trapped in cycles of dependency, losing valuable development opportunities.

For African nations, moving beyond dependency involves reshaping global debt structures, asserting sovereignty in financial decisions, and embracing sustainable, innovative solutions. By pushing for an Africa-specific debt framework, AfDB and UNECA are championing a new era where Africa can thrive autonomously on AB the global stage.

Agnes Gitau is the Executive Director Eastern Africa Association and a Partner at GBS Africa AFRICA BRIEFING NOVEMBER - DECEMBER 2024

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Western aid: a blessing or a curse?

Despite $150 billion in annual aid, Africa remains trapped in poverty and underdevelopment. Jon Offei-Ansah critically examines why systemic issues persist and whether Western aid is truly benefiting the continent

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VER the past several decades, Western countries, international organisations, and private foundations have channelled an astounding $150 billion annually into African countries. Yet, despite this seemingly generous aid, Africa continues to face significant challenges, including poverty, famine, inadequate infrastructure, and a lack of economic development. The paradox remains: if Africa is receiving so much aid, why do so many of its systemic problems persist? This question has led to critical debates on the efficacy of aid, the influence of corruption, and the role of Western interests in shaping the continent's development trajectory.

newly independent African nations.

While the rhetoric around aid shifted towards humanitarianism, the legacy of colonialism continues to haunt the dynamics of Western aid in Africa. Aid is often framed as a moral obligation of wealthy nations, but it is also a means of securing access to African markets and resources. This duality raises questions about whether aid is genuinely intended to help Africa or merely to maintain Western hegemony.

Today, aid flows to Africa through a variety of channels, including governmentto-government assistance, international

organisations like the World Bank and the United Nations, and private philanthropic foundations. While these entities have made significant contributions to the continent's development, their efforts have been met with mixed results.

Private foundations, particularly those led by wealthy Western philanthropists, have become increasingly prominent in shaping Africa’s development agenda.

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, for example, has focused on health care, agricultural development, and financial inclusion for the poor. Its polio eradication programme in Africa is widely

Western aid to Africa is not a modern phenomenon. Its roots can be traced back to the colonial era, when European powers sought to control African territories and resources under the guise of "civilising missions." The 1929 Colonial Development Act, passed by the British Parliament, was one of the earliest formalised attempts at providing aid. The act was primarily designed to fund infrastructure projects, such as roads, water systems, and power plants, ostensibly to improve the living conditions in colonies.

However, these projects often served colonial interests, facilitating the extraction of resources for European markets rather than promoting genuine development.

The notion of the "white man’s burden," popularised by Rudyard Kipling, provided moral justification for such endeavours. Western powers believed it was their duty to "civilise" Africa, masking their economic and political motivations.

Even after the formal end of colonialism, this paternalistic approach continued to shape the nature of Western aid. In the post-colonial period, aid was repurposed as a tool for geopolitical influence, with donor countries seeking to consolidate their power by fostering relationships with 36

The Mastercard Foundation supports youth education and entrepreneurship through scholarships and training, benefiting thousands of young Africans

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY continuous streams of aid, creating what some have called a "dependency syndrome." Rather than fostering economic independence, aid often deepens dependence, as governments and local communities become reliant on external funding to meet their basic needs. This phenomenon has been described as a form of "financial addiction," where African countries are trapped in a cycle of receiving aid without developing the capacity to sustain themselves economically.

Aid to Africa is delivered through various channels, including direct government-to-government assistance

regarded as a success, helping to nearly eliminate the disease from the continent.

Similarly, the Mastercard Foundation has invested heavily in youth education and entrepreneurship, providing scholarships and training programmes that have benefited thousands of young Africans.

Western priorities, which may not align with the needs and aspirations of African populations. Moreover, the concentration of wealth and decision-making power in the hands of a few wealthy individuals raises concerns about accountability and transparency.

However, despite these successes, private foundations have been criticised for promoting a "top-down" approach that often bypasses African governments and local communities. Critics argue that these foundations are driven by

International organisations, such as the World Bank and the United Nations, have also played a key role in providing financial and technical assistance to African countries. These organisations have financed large-scale infrastructure projects, including roads, power plants, and water systems, which have contributed to economic growth and improved living conditions in many parts of Africa.

For example, the World Bank has been instrumental in expanding access to clean water in rural areas, reducing waterborne diseases and improving health outcomes.

However, these organisations have not been immune to criticism. Many argue that the conditionalities attached to loans and grants, particularly those imposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have often exacerbated economic problems rather than alleviating them.

Structural adjustment programmes, which required African countries to implement austerity measures and open their markets to foreign competition, led to widespread unemployment, reduced public spending on health and education, and deepened poverty in many cases. Empirical studies have shown that countries that implemented these programmes, such as Zambia and Ghana, experienced economic stagnation and increased inequality in the short term.

One of the most persistent criticisms of Western aid is that it fosters dependency rather than self-reliance. Many African countries have become reliant on

Research by economists such as Dambisa Moyo has shown that longterm aid dependency can stifle economic growth. In her book Dead Aid, Moyo argues that aid creates a disincentive for governments to pursue sound economic policies and reforms. Instead of focusing on building domestic industries and generating revenue through taxation, governments may become more interested in maintaining the flow of aid, which can be easier to secure than long-term investments in economic development.

Furthermore, donor-led projects often fail to achieve their intended goals due to a lack of understanding of local contexts.

The fish processing factory funded by the Norwegian International Development Agency in Kenya and the cashew nut processing plant in Tanzania are prime examples of aid projects that were wellintentioned but poorly executed. In both cases, the projects were incompatible with local realities, resulting in wasted resources and little benefit to the local populations.

Corruption is one of the most significant barriers to effective aid in Africa. While billions of dollars flow into African countries each year, much of this money is siphoned off by corrupt officials, never reaching the intended beneficiaries.

According to a report by the African Union, an estimated $148 billion is lost to corruption in Africa each year—an amount nearly equivalent to the total annual aid received.

Corruption not only undermines the effectiveness of aid but also perpetuates inequality and poverty. When aid funds are misappropriated, the most vulnerable populations—those who rely on aid for basic needs such as food, water, and healthcare—are left to suffer. This creates a cycle of poverty, where the poor remain dependent on aid, while elites enrich themselves at the expense of their own people.

A study by the Journal of Development

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation prioritises health care, agricultural development, and financial inclusion for underserved communities

Studies found that in countries with high levels of corruption, such as Nigeria and Kenya, aid was significantly less effective in reducing poverty and promoting economic growth. The study concluded that without strong institutions and mechanisms for accountability, aid would continue to be mismanaged, benefiting a select few rather than the broader population.

In addition to corruption and inefficacy, there is a growing critique that Western aid is not purely altruistic but serves to advance Western political and economic interests. Participation in international aid programmes allows donor countries to maintain their influence in African countries, gaining access to valuable natural resources and markets. Aid is often tied to political conditions, such as adopting Western-style governance models or aligning with Western foreign policy objectives. This has led some critics to argue that aid is a tool of "neocolonialism"—a means of exerting control over African countries without the need for direct intervention.

Moreover, aid programmes frequently promote Western values and behaviours, which may not always align with African traditions and cultures. For instance, many aid projects focus on changing social behaviours, such as promoting gender equality or environmental conservation.

While these goals are laudable, critics argue that they can sometimes reflect a "onesize-fits-all" approach that fails to take into account the diversity of African societies.

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As a result, these projects may be seen as attempts to impose Western norms rather than empowering Africans to find their own solutions.

Empirical evidence on the effectiveness of Western aid in Africa presents a mixed picture. A 2019 study published in the Journal of African Economies analysed the impact of aid on economic growth across 41 African countries between 1980 and 2016. The study found that while aid had a positive effect on growth in some countries, particularly those with strong governance institutions, it had little to no impact in others. Countries with high levels of corruption and weak institutions, such as Zimbabwe and Somalia, saw minimal benefits from aid inflows.

in the way aid is delivered and utilised.

African countries need investment in industries that create jobs, promote economic independence, and reduce reliance on foreign aid. Rather than focusing solely on short-term relief, donors should prioritise long-term development initiatives that empower Africans to take control of their own destinies. This could include investments in infrastructure, education, technology, and entrepreneurship, all of which are critical to building a sustainable future for the continent.

Additionally, aid programmes must be designed with local input and ownership to ensure that they are relevant and effective.

African governments, businesses, and Similarly, a 2021 report by the Overseas communities must play a leading role in Development Institute (ODI) concluded shaping development priorities, rather than that while aid has helped to improve having these priorities dictated by external access to health care, education, and clean donors. water in many African countries, it has not Western aid to Africa has been both a been as successful in promoting longblessing and a curse. While it has provided term economic development. The report much-needed resources and relief, it has emphasised the need for a shift in focus also created a dependency that hinders from short-term humanitarian relief to long-term development. Corruption, failed long-term investments in infrastructure, job projects, and the imposition of Western creation, and capacity-building. values have further complicated the The current model of Western aid to Africa is flawed. While it has achieved some successes, it has also fostered dependency, fuelled corruption, and promoted a Western agenda that may not always align with Africa’s needs. To break this cycle, there must be a fundamental shift

effectiveness of aid. Moving forward, the focus must shift towards creating conditions for economic self-reliance and empowering Africans to take control of their own development. Only by addressing these systemic issues can aid truly become a force for positive change on the continent.

AB

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SIERRA LEONE’S BIO PITCHES FOR BUSINESS

July-August 2019 Vol. 2 No.4

News, Analysis & Comment

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CORRUPTION: WHERE ARE AFRICA’S BILLIONS? Eurozone 5 euros UK £3.00 North America $6.50 CFA Zone CFA2,600 Ethiopia R90 Ghana GHC12.00 Kenya KSh350 Rwanda RWF3,000 Sierra Leone LE20,000 South Africa R40.00 (inc. tax) Other Southern African Countries R35.10 (excl. tax) Tanzania TSh6,500 Uganda USh10,700 Zambia ZMK45

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ENERGY

West Africa’s $855m power project to boost regional energy trade West Africa's ambitious $855 million energy initiative aims to boost regional electricity trade, increase renewable energy production, and enhance power accessibility in Mauritania and Mali with AfDB support

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EST African countries have embarked on an ambitious $855 million energy project aimed at transforming regional power accessibility by strengthening electricity trade, expanding renewable energy sources, and addressing critical infrastructure needs in Mauritania and Mali. Supported by the African Development Bank (AfDB), the project promises to deliver an interconnected power network, starting with an 853-mile high-voltage transmission line and new solar installations, bringing affordable energy solutions to some of the region’s most underserved communities.

The project is part of a larger regional initiative that seeks to build a sustainable “energy corridor” across the Sahel, ultimately linking Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad.

With substantial backing from the AfDB, Mauritania and Mali are leading this effort, building the foundation of what

could become one of West Africa's most significant collaborative energy infrastructure achievements.

The central component of the project, an 853-mile high-voltage transmission line, will carry 600 megawatts (MW) of power, enhancing energy exchange between Mauritania and Mali. The line will provide much-needed power to both urban and rural areas, addressing the long-standing infrastructure deficit that has limited economic development and access to essential services in both countries.

Accompanying this transmission line are two large solar power plants located in the Mauritanian towns of Kiffa and Néma.

With an initial capacity of 50MW in Kiffa, these solar plants aim to bolster renewable energy generation, providing a steady power supply to remote regions that have traditionally struggled with inconsistent access to electricity. The high-voltage line will connect the solar plants, forming a

continuous power pathway across both countries. This infrastructure will directly impact approximately 100,000 households, 80,000 of which are in Mauritania and 20,000 in Mali, bringing reliable electricity to regions that have long faced energy challenges.

Africa's infrastructure financing gap remains a significant barrier to economic progress and social development.

Estimates from the AfDB indicate that the continent needs nearly $122bn annually to close its infrastructure deficit, with a current shortfall of between $63 billion and $100bn each year. Much of this gap is due to insufficient investment in sustainable energy infrastructure, which has left many African countries dependent on costly fossil fuels and vulnerable to frequent power shortages.

The West Africa power project directly addresses this gap, building an interconnected power network designed to foster greater energy independence. The AfDB’s $281 million loan to Mauritania and Mali reflects the bank’s commitment to supporting sustainable energy projects that offer long-term socio-economic benefits. These funds are dedicated to constructing high-voltage transmission lines and solar facilities, representing a significant investment in renewable energy infrastructure that aligns with AfDB’s vision for a greener, self-reliant Africa.

For the communities along the project’s route, the impact of access to affordable, reliable electricity will be transformative.

According to Adalbert Nshimyumuremyi, head of the AfDB country office in Mali, the project’s interconnection will enable

The project’s key feature, an 853-mile high-voltage transmission line, will transport 600 megawatts (MW) of power, boosting energy exchange between Mauritania and Mali

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ENERGY such as manufacturing and digital services.

In the long term, these investments will provide jobs, stimulate local economies, and increase resilience to global energy shocks.

The West Africa power project signifies a vital step forward in the region’s journey toward sustainable development.

Its emphasis on renewable energy reflects a growing recognition within African leadership of the need to invest in green solutions that support both economic growth and environmental stewardship.

For Mauritania and Mali, this project is not only an energy investment but also an opportunity to position themselves as leaders in renewable energy within the Sahel region.

Two large solar power plants, located in the Mauritanian towns of Kiffa and Néma, complement the transmission line

the development of new renewable energy power stations and integrate them into the regional grid. ‘Bringing these power sources online will provide high-quality, low-carbon electricity at an affordable price,’ he noted, underscoring the benefits of accessible, eco-friendly energy for residents.

The high-voltage line’s introduction will particularly benefit the Kayes region in Mali, where over 500,000 people across 50 localities stand to gain access to a stable power supply. In these areas, increased access to electricity will support healthcare, education, and business, boosting local economies. For many households, the availability of affordable energy will mean a substantial improvement in quality of life. Schools, clinics, and local businesses will be able to operate without the interruptions caused by unreliable power supplies, fostering more sustainable economic development and job creation.

In addition to its direct benefits, this project symbolises a strategic shift toward sustainable development within West Africa. By prioritising renewable energy, governments are taking significant steps to reduce carbon emissions, addressing both immediate energy needs and the broader impact of climate change. As this initiative connects more communities to reliable power, it also aligns with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, which emphasize affordable, clean energy

as critical to poverty reduction, health, and environmental preservation.

The power project is the result of extensive collaboration between national governments, the AfDB, and international development partners. This collective approach has brought in expertise and resources that are essential for successful execution, laying the groundwork for future expansion of the Sahel power corridor. By establishing a network that crosses national boundaries, the project reinforces the idea that African nations can work together to tackle shared challenges and support each other’s growth.

The initiative is also expected to enhance economic ties within the region by enabling cross-border energy trade, with Mauritania serving as a key supplier of solar energy to Mali. By pooling resources and expertise, both countries benefit from economies of scale and shared access to renewable energy resources.

This cooperation sets a precedent for other West African nations to join the energy corridor, which could eventually extend to include several additional countries, further promoting regional integration and interdependence.

As this corridor evolves, it could spur additional renewable energy projects, creating opportunities for private investment and development across various sectors. Increased power availability will make West Africa more attractive for industries requiring stable energy supplies,

The ripple effect of reliable electricity access will be felt in countless ways, from reduced healthcare costs associated with improved access to clean energy, to expanded educational opportunities enabled by uninterrupted power in schools.

Communities in the Kayes region of Mali, as well as those across Mauritania, stand to benefit as businesses grow, job markets expand, and essential services improve.

The high-voltage transmission line and solar plants offer a foundation upon which these communities can build a brighter, more resilient future.

West Africa’s electricity initiative is a model of how collaborative, crossborder projects can address some of the continent’s most pressing challenges. The project demonstrates that when African countries partner to tackle shared issues, they can leverage their resources and collective expertise to create large-scale, transformative infrastructure. This project is likely to inspire similar efforts in other regions, where countries face parallel challenges of infrastructure gaps and growing energy needs.

The success of the West Africa power project could have far-reaching effects, encouraging further investments in renewable energy across the continent. As nations connect through the Sahel power corridor, the groundwork is being laid for a future where Africa’s energy security is shaped by renewable sources, regional collaboration, and economic resilience.

For both Mauritania and Mali, this project represents not only a leap toward sustainable energy but also a foundation for a more stable, prosperous future. AB

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MINING

Nations prioritise mineral value addition in new policy shift As part of a broader continental shift, African nations like Ghana, Tanzania, and Zambia are moving away from raw mineral exports, investing in local processing to boost revenue, create jobs, and strengthen their economies, Jon Offei-Ansah reports

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CROSS the African continent, a significant shift in policy is taking place. Countries rich in natural resources such as Ghana, Tanzania, Zambia, and more recently Kenya, are making moves to restrict the export of unprocessed raw materials. These nations, which have long been suppliers of minerals such as gold, copper, and cobalt, are now looking to leverage their mineral wealth more effectively. Rather than exporting raw materials for foreign countries to refine and profit from, these nations are aiming to process the minerals locally, capturing more value from their own resources. This shift in focus is not only about generating additional revenue for governments but also about fostering local industries and creating jobs that will contribute to longterm economic growth.

Kenya’s decision to limit the export of raw minerals marks a major step in this broader policy shift. In a move that highlights the country’s new approach to mineral resources, Kenya is investing in its own processing capacity. The Kenyan government is currently building a KSh5.8 billion ($45 million) gold processing plant in Kakamega County, which is set to be completed by mid-2025. Additionally, a KSh2.5 billion granite processing plant is under construction in Vihiga County.

These facilities are part of a broader effort to ensure that minerals such as gold, gemstones, and granite are processed within Kenya, rather than being exported in raw form. By refining these resources at home, Kenya hopes to retain more of the value generated from its natural wealth and establish a more robust local economy.

Kenya is not alone in this shift. Other African countries, including Ghana, Tanzania, and Zambia, have already introduced policies aimed at reducing raw 42

In 2016, Africa exported $15.1 billion worth of gold to the UAE

mineral exports and encouraging domestic processing. These nations are taking steps to ensure that more of the financial benefits of their mineral wealth stay within their borders, creating new industries, stimulating innovation, and boosting employment in the process.

For decades, many African countries have exported vast amounts of raw minerals, which are then refined abroad.

This has meant that the lion’s share of the profits from mineral resources has gone to foreign companies and governments. For example, in 2016 alone, Africa exported $15.1 billion worth of gold to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a dramatic increase from just $1.3 billion in 2006. Despite Africa's rich mineral resources, the continent has struggled to capture more value from these materials, and many governments have begun to recognise that they need to process these minerals locally in order to generate more wealth and opportunities for their citizens.

Ghana, Tanzania, and Zambia have already begun implementing measures to

address this issue. Ghana, a major gold producer, has introduced restrictions on the export of raw gold, encouraging the establishment of local refineries to process the metal domestically. Similarly, Tanzania, one of Africa’s largest producers of gold, passed a law in 2017 requiring mining companies to build smelters and refineries within the country, reducing the export of raw gold and ensuring that more of the profits stay within Tanzania.

Zambia, one of the world’s largest copper producers, has also placed restrictions on the export of raw copper, encouraging local processing instead. This move is part of Zambia’s broader strategy to capture more value from its copper industry, which is vital to its economy.

Kenya’s efforts to follow suit signal a promising development for the continent.

As more African countries push for greater value addition in the mining sector, the continent’s role in the global mineral market could change significantly. Instead of being seen solely as a supplier of raw materials, African nations are positioning

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MINING represents a significant step towards economic sovereignty. By restricting the export of raw minerals and investing in domestic processing, Kenya is taking control of its resources and ensuring that more of the wealth generated from its natural resources stays within the country.

This is part of a broader agenda to reduce Kenya’s reliance on raw exports and build a diversified, resilient economy that benefits all Kenyans.

The continent holds 92 percent of the world’s platinum reserves

themselves as key players in the value chain, capable of refining and adding value to their natural resources. This shift has the potential to transform African economies, reduce reliance on raw material exports, and provide sustainable development opportunities.

Africa’s mineral wealth is immense.

The continent holds 92 percent of the world’s platinum reserves, 56 percent of cobalt, 54 percent of manganese, and 36 percent of chromium. These minerals are not only valuable in traditional industries but are also critical to the development of green technologies such as electric vehicle (EV) batteries and wind turbines. As global demand for these minerals rises, African countries have a unique opportunity to capture more value from their resources by processing them domestically.

Reports from McKinsey suggest that Africa could generate between $200 million and $2 billion in additional annual revenue by 2030 if it develops a competitive, low-carbon manufacturing sector focused on mineral processing. In addition to this, the report estimates that up to 3.8 million jobs could be created across the continent by establishing local value chains for these critical minerals.

This could lead to the development of a new industrial base in Africa, creating new businesses and spurring innovation in various sectors.

Kenya’s investment in gold and granite processing plants is part of a broader vision to unlock the continent’s mineral wealth. By processing its raw materials before exporting them, Kenya hopes to increase its GDP and create high-quality

jobs for its citizens. If successful, these projects will not only boost government revenue but also support local businesses and contribute to the country’s economic diversification.

While the benefits of local mineral processing are clear, the implementation of such policies is not without challenges.

Several African nations that have introduced similar measures have encountered difficulties in maintaining them due to infrastructure deficits, inadequate technical capacity, and logistical challenges. For example, building processing plants can be costly, and many countries struggle to acquire the necessary technical expertise to run these plants effectively. Furthermore, multinational mining companies, which have historically relied on exporting raw materials to be processed elsewhere, may resist such policies, as they stand to lose out on the profits from refining operations.

Benedikt Sobotka, CEO of Eurasian Resources Group, has warned that without the necessary infrastructure and support, export restrictions on raw minerals could backfire. “There are no automatic benefits from these export bans,” Sobotka noted, adding that some African countries have abandoned such policies after failing to create the infrastructure needed to make local processing viable.

To avoid this fate, Kenya will need to invest heavily in infrastructure, train a skilled workforce, and create a regulatory environment that fosters investment in local processing.

Despite these challenges, Kenya’s commitment to local mineral processing

As more African countries adopt similar policies, the continent’s role in the global mineral market is set to change.

Rather than being seen as merely a source of raw materials, African nations are positioning themselves as key players in the global value chain, capable of adding value to their resources and capturing a greater share of the profits. If successful, this shift could lead to long-term economic growth, job creation, and poverty reduction across the continent.

Kenya’s plans to restrict raw mineral exports and invest in local processing are just one example of a broader trend that is unfolding across Africa. As more countries follow suit, the continent is poised to benefit from a more sustainable model of resource management, one that prioritises local value addition and supports the growth of domestic industries.

The success of these policies will depend on overcoming challenges related to infrastructure, technical capacity, and international resistance. However, with the right investments and a supportive regulatory environment, Africa’s mineral wealth could become a key driver of economic growth, creating opportunities for millions of people and helping the continent realise its full economic potential.

As the global demand for minerals continues to rise, Africa is in a unique position to take advantage of its vast reserves. By focusing on value addition, African countries can build stronger, more diversified economies that are less reliant on raw material exports and better positioned for the future. If Kenya and other African nations succeed in their efforts to process their minerals domestically, they could not only secure a greater share of the profits from their resources but also create a more sustainable and equitable economic AB model for the 21st century.

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ART

The rise of African art as investment A new trend is emerging where investors of all types are finally escaping the confines of Western art, leading to a rise in the prices in the work of artists from China, India, Brazil and Nigeria, writes Ngozi Akinyele

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FRICAN art is gaining traction across the world. Consider the meteoric trajectory of El Anatsui, the Ghanaian sculptor who is rising through the world-rankings of best-selling artists at auction, with his shimmering tapestries and sculptures selling for between $,5000 and $2.2 million. Similarly, Nigerian sculptor Yinka Shonibare’s diverse array of works have sold for hundreds of thousands of dollars at auction.

While he is widely recognised for his achievements as an investor, banker and philanthropist, his passion for art predates his career in finance. His mother, a curator and gallerist, and his father, a civil servant in Nigeria’s cultural ministry, inspired his love of art in its many mediums, laying the foundation for the Coronation Art Gallery that opened to the public in 2022.

In September this year, we opened a

new exhibit honouring the distinguished women art collectors of our country, whose incredible private collections highlight the extraordinary power of Nigerian art.

These collectors include business consultant Adia Sowho; lawyer and wealth adviser Bimpe Nkontchou; psychologist and human development adviser Dudun Peterside; and 10 others who understand the power of investing in Nigerian masters.

Early investors in their work have been greatly rewarded, which is why many passionate collectors are looking for similarly talented African artists, whose work is both culturally significant and affordable.

In 2019, the Nigerian art market reached a 10-year high, reaching sales of N400 million across the country’s numerous action houses. However, recent economic volatility has shaken the progress of the sector.

Yet even in the face of the recent currency crisis, the art market held firm, performing better than the overall market.

Some international auction houses, such as Bonhams, even saw a significant increase in purchases of African art between 2022 and 2023 – from $8.9 million in 2022 to $10.3 million in 2023.

To maintain any sort of forward trajectory – to ensure our art remains highly valued locally and internationally – it is of vital importance that we, as the private sector, continue to support the collectors and the artists who are helping to grow interest in the sector, while also making art more accessible.

Democratisation – of wealth, of investment, of art – has been a key focus for the Coronation Group since its establishment. Our founder, Aigboje AigImoukhuede, is a consummate lover of art, and believes in the transformative power of artistic expression.

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El Anatsui sitting in front of his wood and metal sculpture Akua's Surviving Children (1996)

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ART We are incredibly proud to have collaborated with such extraordinary women for this exhibition, and hope to inspire future generations of art lovers, collectors and creators to engage with African art and its powerful role in shaping our collective future.

Featuring the works of Victor Ehikhamenor, Ndidi Emefiele, Tony Nsofor and dozens of other examples of Nigeria’s artistic excellence, the overall value of the works on display totalled N451 million, a clear indication of their growing investment potential.

That the gallery opening attracted dignitaries underscored the cultural significance that art plays in Nigerian society, but also that it must be recognised as a multidimensional asset class that can drive wealth creation and socio-economic development.

However, to create genuine access to

‘

When we invest in local art, we don’t just enrich ourselves, we enrich our culture

this cultural wealth, we must find ways in which we can make art affordable to those outside of the high-net-worth individual (HNWI) bracket. Yet we have to be cautious in how we do this.

It is this desire to democratise art that spurred the development of the non-fungible token (NFT) market, with these tokens becoming an entirely new cryptocurrency asset. NFTs are a digital representation of an asset, such as a work of art, recorded on a blockchain to allegedly ensure authenticity.

’

While certainly more affordable than a Picasso, like any cryptocurrency, they are considered a very high-risk investment, and one crypto investment research company has alleged that almost 96 per cent of NFTs are “dead”, or no longer have any value – lending credence to the idea that the tokens are a fad.

Thankfully, there are safer ways of investing in art. A recent trend towards fractional ownership has been gaining traction since last year, where buyers can purchase fractional shares of a given artwork for partial ownership.

The London-based market research firm, ArtTactic, conducted a survey earlier this year revealing that more buyers in the art market were cautiously partaking in the practice of fractional ownership – from nine per cent in 2023 to 16 per cent in May this year.

The largest firm in the fractional ownership art business, New York’s Masterworks, has been able to secure more than $1 billion in capital since it was established in 2017, purchasing more than 415 major artworks to fractionalise and sell to investors. Similarly, blockchain technology has been used to tokenise physical art pieces – yet another way to enable fractional ownership.

It remains to be seen if this trend is yet another bubble waiting to burst, but it is impossible to deny this is an innovative way to democratise access to (partial) art ownership.

It will likely be the fintech innovators who will be central to lowering the barriers to art collection and investment, and considering Nigeria remains in the top five African countries for fintech investment, I suspect we may see such innovative investment platforms sooner rather than later.

As the Coronation Group, however, we will continue to promote the art itself, the collectors, artists and the capabilities of Nigerian art to diversify investment portfolios. Because when we invest in local art, we don’t just enrich ourselves, AB we enrich our culture.

Ngozi Akinyele is Chief Marketing and Communications Officer at Coronation Group in Nigeria (www.Coronation.ng).

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