Q3 2023

OH - KY | MIDWEST | MULTIFAMILY

Q U A R T E R LY R E V I E W QUARTER 3 2023

3 R D Q U A R T E R S N A P S H OT THE ECONOMY 1| That is in contrast to the annual job base contraction of roughly 12% to 13% in April and May 2020, when year-over-year job losses got as deep as 20

MIDWESTMARKETS LO C AT I O N S

million. 2|By comparison, the nation’s employment base grew roughly 1.5% to 2.5% annually from late 2011 through early 2020, adding about 2.4 million jobs annually during that period. 3| Despite job losses stemming from

C I N C I N N AT I , O H I O

the pandemic, the current employment base in the U.S. now sits roughly 5.4 million jobs or 3.6% above the pre-pandemic level in February 2020. As the economy expands beyond its pre-pandemic employment base, job growth is

LO U I SV I L L E , K E N T U C K Y

expected to ease over the coming year. 4| Among individual markets, New York-White Plains recorded the nation’s strongest annual job growth performance during the year-ending August, with a net increase of roughly 174,400

DAY TO N , O H I O

jobs. 5| Four other markets gained more than 80,000 jobs: Dallas-Plano-Irving (112,700 jobs), Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale (99,700 jobs), Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington (90,600 jobs) and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land (87,600 jobs). 6| For proportional change, Huntsville was at the top of the pack, with a job base expansion of 4.6%. Five markets saw job base expansions of 4.5%: Trenton, Charleston-North Charleston, Midland/Odessa, Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise and Ann Arbor.

L E X I N G TO N , K Y

Q3

CI N CI N N AT I

LOUISVILL E

LEX IN GTON

DAYTON

Quarterly Rent Growth- 1.4%

Quarterly Rent Growth- 0.8%

Quarterly Rent Growth- 3.9%

Quarterly Rent Growth – 1.7%

Rent- $1,364

Rent- $1,196

Rent- $1,207

Rent- $1,115

Rent/SF- $1.472

Rent/SF- $1.264

Rent/SF- $1.311

Rent/SF- $1.221

Occupancy- 95.5%

Occupancy- 94.2%

Occupancy- 96.0%

Occupancy- 95.5%

Units Completed in last 4 quarters-

Units Completed in last 4 quarters-

Units Completed in last 4 quarters-

Units Completed in last 4 quarters-

2,760

1,824

703

931

Annual Supply Growth- 1.6%

Annual Supply Growth- 1.5%

Annual Supply Growth- 3.9%

Annual Supply Growth- 1.3%

Units under construction- 4,915

Units under construction- 3,710

Units under construction- 1,043

Units under construction- 1,235

Projected Supply growth- 1.99%

Projected Supply growth- 1.88%

Projected Supply growth- 1.49%

Projected Supply growth- 1.6%

YTD 2023 Job Change- 29,000

YTD 2022 Job Change- 9,400

YTD 2022 Job Change- 11,100

YTD 2022 Job Change- 11,000

MARKET U P D AT E

U.S. economic growth generally followed along a slow trajectory in the 10 years leading up to the pandemic, with real gross domestic product (GDP) growing at an average annual rate of just over 2% from 2010 to 2019.

The economic fallout from the pandemic caused the economy to contract nearly 30% in 2nd quarter 2020 before rebounding around 35% in 3rd quarter 2020. Most recently, GDP expanded at an annual rate of 4.9% in 3rd quarter 2023 (based on advanced estimates). That recent expansion was above the 2.1% growth seen in 2nd quarter 2023 and it was a considerable improvement from the 2.0% contraction in 1st quarter 2022.

3

ENTIRE USA National Occupancy Primary Markets Market New York Milwaukee Newark Anaheim San Diego

Occ 96.9% 96.8% 96.6% 96.5% 96.3%

Secondary Markets

Tertiary Markets

Market Madison Rochester Springfield, MA Buffalo Syracuse

Market Youngstown Lincoln Manchester Salinas Champaign

Occ 97.6% 97.5% 97.1% 96.8% 96.8%

Occ 99.2% 97.7% 97.4% 97.2% 97.2%

National Monthly Rent Primary Markets Q3 2023 MARKET SNAPSHOT

Occupancy Y-O-Y Rent Growth Average Rent Per Unit

Pre1970s 94.6% 2.0% $1,559

EMPLOYMENT Unemployment Rate Jobs Added YTD

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000+

94.5% 1.9% $1,514

94.6% 0.5% $1,614

94.8% -0.4% $1,806

94.4% 0.0% $2,130

Market New York San Francisco

Rent $4,476 $3,215

San Jose Boston San Diego

$3,093 $2,939 $2,858

3.6% 3.1 million

units completed in past 12 months

405,367 units currently in progress

Tertiary Markets

Market Nassau County Bridgeport-Stamford Urban Honolulu Oxnard Worcester

Rent $2,981 $2,934

Market Santa Maria Santa Rosa

Rent $2,771 $2,477

$2,751 $2,728 $2,176

Trenton Salinas Napa

$2,364 $2,349 $2,309

National Monthly Rent Change Primary Markets

128,128

Secondary Markets

Secondary Markets

Tertiary Markets Market Midland/ Odessa Champaign College Station-Bryan Lincoln Trenton

Market Newark

Change 4.9%

Market Springfield, MA

Change 9.9%

Cincinnati Chicago

4.5% 3.5%

Madison Omaha

9.4% 5.8%

Milwaukee Kansas City

3.4% 3.3%

Rochester Albany

5.2% 5.0%

Change 15.6% 6.6% 6.4% 6.0% 6.0%

Q3

RENTS 1| Across the 150 core markets, effective asking rents rose 0.5% in 3rd quarter 2023 and were up 0.4% year-

Quarterly Rent Growth- 0.5%

over-year. That annual rent growth pace was down from the record increases in late 2021 and early 2022 and

Rent- $1,824

landed below the average of 3.6% during the five years leading up to the pandemic. 2| Prior to the pandemic,

Rent/SF- $2.007

the previous high was achieved in the year-ending 3rd quarter 2000 when rents climbed 7.5%, while the weak-

Occupancy- 94.6%

est annual rent change performance came in 3rd quarter 2009 when rents were cut 5.6% year-over-year. 3|

Units Completed in last 4 quarters- 128,128

U.S. markets to $1,824 per month, or $2.007 per square foot, as of 3rd quarter 2023. Looking at year-over-year rent change in individual markets, Midland/Odessa led the nation, with an increase of 15.6%. 4| That market was followed by Springfield, MA (9.9%) and Madison (9.4%). Two other markets recorded annual hikes of more

Annual Supply Growth- 2.1% Units under construction- 405,367

than 6%: Champaign-Urbana (6.6%) and College Station-Bryan (6.4%). 5| Meanwhile, 48 markets cut rents in

Projected Supply growth- 0.67%

the year-ending 3rd quarter 2023, with the biggest price cut in Boise City (-6.3%).

YTD 2022 Job Change- 3.1 million

SUPPLY

DEMAND

1| Annual supply levels have been elevated for most of the past de-

1| Since the global pandemic, apartment demand has swung be-

cade, topping 200,000 units annually for nearly 10 years and topping

tween highs and lows. Demand temporarily plummeted in the early

300,000 units annually for almost four years. 2| In 3rd quarter 2023,

days of the pandemic, only to come roaring back to reach record

a total of 128,128 units came online, the largest quarterly comple-

highs in late 2021 and early 2022. During that time, pent-up demand

tion volume dating back to 1993. 3| Those quarterly completions

pulled forward considerable volumes of apartment absorption, es-

took annual supply within the 150 core U.S. markets to a record high

sentially capturing two years’ worth of demand in just a couple of

of 405,367 units. That recent annual total was roughly 70,500 units

quarters. 2| As such, demand started cooling in 2nd quarter 2022

greater than the five-year average and about 98,500 units above the

and plummeted thereafter. More recently, demand has stabilized

decade average. 4| Completion levels will likely pick up, with rough-

and has steadily rebounded every quarter thus far in 2023. 3| As

ly 656,200 units set to deliver in the year-ending 3rd quarter 2024

of 3rd quarter, apartment demand was fairly normal nationwide,

which would set a new record high. 5| For comparison, in the early

though varied geographically. In the July to September time period,

2000s, annual new supply levels in the core 150 markets peaked at

the core 150 markets posted demand for 90,827 units, the strongest

about 227,000 units in 3rd quarter 2000.

quarterly demand in nearly two years. In the year-ending 3rd quarter 2023, the core 150 markets collectively posted net demand for 127,130 units.

5

U S C O M PA R I S O N U.S. economic growth generally followed along a slow trajectory in the 10 years leading up to the pandemic, with real gross domestic product (GDP) growing at an average annual rate of just over 2% from 2010 to 2019. The economic fallout from the pandemic caused the economy to contract nearly 30% in 2nd quarter 2020 before rebounding around 35% in 3rd quarter 2020. Most recently, GDP expanded at an annual rate of 4.9% in 3rd quarter 2023 (based on advanced estimates). That recent expansion was above the 2.1% growth seen in 2nd quarter 2023 and it was a considerable improvement from the 2.0% contraction in 1st quarter 2022. Meanwhile, in the year-ending August 2023, the nation’s job base expanded 2.0% year-over-year with the net addition of more than 3.1 million jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That is in contrast to the annual job base contraction of roughly 12% to 13% in April and May 2020, when year-over-year job losses got as deep as 20 million.

ANNUAL RENT CHANGE

Q3

OCCUPANCY COMPARISON

MONTHLY RENT

7

C I N C I N N AT I CAPITAL MARKETS

RENT 1| Over the past five years, annual change in effective asking rents in Cin-

1| Transaction dollar volumes in Cincinnati totaled roughly $598.1

cinnati ranged from 2.0% to 11.9%. 2| In 3rd quarter 2023, effective ask-

million in the year-ending 3rd quarter 2023, up about 13% year-

ing rents for new leases were up 4.5% year-over- year. That annual rent

over-year. 2| Transactions in the year-ending 3rd quarter 2023

performance was below the market’s five-year average of 5.7%. 3| Look-

yielded an average cap rate of 5.86%, up 37 basis points year-over

ing at product classes in Cincinnati, Class B led for rent performance over

year. By comparison, cap rates averaged 5.41% in the Midwest re-

the past five years. 4| In 3rd quarter 2023, annual effective rent change

gion and 4.96% nationally.

registered at 1.6% in Class A units, 5.8% in Class B units and 6.5% in Class C units. 5| Among submarkets, the strongest annual rent change performances over the past year were in North Cincinnati and West Cincinnati, at around 7%. 6| The weakest performances were in Central Cincinnati (1.9%) and North Central Cincinnati (2.5%).

DEMAND 1| Over the past five years, annual absorption in Cincinnati has ranged from net move-outs from 1,661 units to demand for 4,398 units, averaging 1,769 units annually during that time. 2| In the year-ending 3rd quarter 2023, the market recorded demand for 221 units, trailing concurrent supply volumes. 3| Among submarkets, the strongest absorption over the past five years was seen in Campbell/Kenton Counties and Central Cincinnati. Those areas accounted for 48% of the market’s total demand over the past five years. In the past year, demand was greatest in Campbell/Kenton Counties and North Cincinnati.

JANUARY

FEBRUARY

MARCH

APRIL

M AY

JUNE

FOR-SALE HOUSING

RENT GROWTH SECTOR

QUARTERLY

YEARLY

2.3% 2.3% 1.7% 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% -0.9%

4.2% 3.5% 5.8% 5.2% 6.5% 0.1% 5.9% 1.6% -0.9%

Campbell / Kenton Counties Northeast / Warren County Boone County / Erlanger West Cincinnati North Cincinnati North Central Cincinnati Southeast Cincinnati Butler County Central Cincinnati

1| During the year-ending 3rd quarter 2023, median home prices in Cincinnati increased an average of 4.5%, landing at a median price of roughly $270,000. 2| The median sales price averaged annual appreciation of 9.8% over the past five years. Meanwhile, estimated home sales totaled roughly 24,000 homes over the past year, down 9.2% year-over-year. 3| The local homeownership rate averaged 68.8% in the year-ending 2nd quarter 2023, above the U.S. average of 66.0% during that same period.

Q3 2023 MARKET SNAPSHOT

Occupancy Y-O-Y Rent Growth Average Rent Per Unit

Pre1970s 94.1% 6.5% $1,084

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000+

95.7% 6.0% $1,152

96.8% 4.7% $1,280

95.8% 3.2% $1,372

95.5% 3.5%

EMPLOYMENT Unemployment Rate Jobs Added YTD

3.5% 29,000

Q UA R T E R 3 J U LY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

O C TO B E R

N OV E M B E R

DECEMBER

C I N C I N N AT I OUTLOOK

SUPPLY

1| Cincinnati evaded the more severe demand softening seen in

1| New apartment completions in Cincinnati were moderate recently, as

many other large markets in 2022. Plus, the market’s annual rent

2,760 units delivered in the year-ending 3rd quarter 2023.

growth ranked #2 among the nation’s 50 largest markets in 3rd

With 150 units removed from existing stock over the past year, the local

quarter 2023. 2| Still, look for Cincinnati’s slow and steady perfor-

inventory base grew 1.6%. 2| In the past year, supply was greatest in North

mance norms to reemerge in the coming quarters. Elevating supply

Central Cincinnati and Campbell/Kenton Counties. 3| Annual new supply

in the coming year will likely weaken operators’ ability to realize

averaged 1,681 units, and annual inventory growth averaged 1.0% over the

as robust pricing power and rent growth will, in turn, continue to

past five years. During that period, new supply was concentrated in Central

soften toward the historical norm. 3| Additional supply in the com-

Cincinnati and Campbell/Kenton Counties, which received 43% of the mar-

ing year will test the depth of the Class A renter pool as new prod-

ket’s total completions.

uct absorption generally takes longer in Cincinnati than in faster growth markets. 4| Occupancy is forecasted to level off in the coming year and be stressed in submarkets that will see the most of new supply.

2,270

4,915

units completed in past 12 months

JANUARY

units currently in progress

FEBRUARY

MARCH

APRIL

M AY

JUNE

HIGHEST OVERALL PERFORMING SUBMARKET SUBMARKETS

RENT

OCCUPANCY

YOY

Dent / Harrison Mt Auburn / Correyville Mt Healthy Mt Washington Burlington / Hebron

$1,140 $2,021 $1,142 $1,173 $1,322

98.0% 94.3% 96.7% 95.7% 97.0%

13.1% 10.6% 8.9% 8.5% 8.4%

OCCUPANCY 95.9% 96.6% 90.6% 94.8% 95.0%

YOY 1.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% -0.2%

D E V E LO P M E N T P I P E L I N E

LOWEST OVERALL PERFORMING SUBMARKETS SUBMARKETS West Chester – East Walnut Hills Clifton Downtown Fairfield

RENT $1,578 $1,511 $1,036 $1,805 $1,283

TOTAL FUTURE INVENTORY GROWTH SUBMARKET Central Cincinnati Boone County / Erlanger Northeast Cincinnati / Warren County Southeast Cincinnati Butler County

CHANGE 7.2% 5.6% 4.7% 3.2% 3.0%

UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTION SECTOR

UNITS

Central Cincinnati Northeast Cincinnati / Warren County Boone County / Erlanger Butler County Southeast Cincinnati

1,049 807 604 597 547

Q UA R T E R 3 J U LY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

O C TO B E R

N OV E M B E R

DECEMBER

C I N C I N N AT I NEW DEVELOPMENTS

KROGER

CINCINNATI CHILDRENS

Locally based grocer Kroger is planning to close on a $25 billion

Cincinnati Children’s Hospital is moving forward with its plans to

merger with Boise, ID-based Albertsons in October. As part of the

construct a medical facility in Southeast Cincinnati. The project,

merger, the two grocery store giants plan to sell a combined 413

named Cincinnati Children’s Eastgate, involves an $85 million in-

stores for $1.9 billion to New Hampshire-based C&S Wholesale

vestment, reports Cincinnati Business Courier. The new two-story,

Grocers, a move expected to ease concerns from state and federal

nearly 110,000- square-foot building will house various medical ser-

officials of a possible grocery monopoly. Though exact numbers

vices, including an outpatient surgery center, specialty clinics and

were not released, the merger is expected to affect thousands of

urgent care. Construction is set to begin before the end of 2023,

Kroger and Albertsons workers, reports The Enquirer. The deal will

with the facility expected to open in mid-2025. The hospital system

result in a new private company with more than 500 stores, even

is also investing in other locations to expand its services. Cincinnati

after selling off over 400 stores across 17 states. The company also

Children’s is a significant health care provider in the region, with a

plans to supply nearly 7,500 supermarkets across the U.S.

broad and growing presence, and was ranked #1 in U.S. News & World Report’s latest listing of Best Children’s Hospitals.

JANUARY

FEBRUARY

MARCH

APRIL

M AY

JUNE

C I N C I N N AT I NEW DEVELOPMENTS

DHL EXPRESS

DUKE ENERGY CENTER

DHL Express plans to invest $192 million to expand its facilities at

The Duke Energy Convention Center in Central Cincinnati is expect-

the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport in Boone

ed to close for renovations starting in mid-July 2024, with a $200

County. The project is expected to create 86 new jobs, and in re-

million plan to upgrade and expand the facility. Updates include

turn, the state’s Economic Development Finance Authority has

modernizing the building’s exterior with an elongated glass facade,

approved up to $1 million in Kentucky Enterprise Initiative Act tax

extending exhibit hall space, improving meeting rooms and ball-

incentives, according to The Construction Broadsheet. The expan-

rooms, and enhancing energy efficiency and technology, according

sion is set to increase DHL’s employment in the state to over 3,800

to local news. The Convention Center District project also involves

people and is part of DHL’s recent series of expansion announce-

creating a two-acre park and outdoor convention space on the site

ments across the U.S., including new hubs in Atlanta, Orlando and

of the former Millennium Hotel, plus building a new hotel nearby.

Kansas City. These expansions incorporate sustainability features,

The closure is expected to last 18 months, with a planned reopen-

such as solar panels and energy- efficient systems, aligning with

ing in early 2026.

DHL’s commitment to a more environmentally friendly operation in the near term.

Q UA R T E R 3 J U LY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

O C TO B E R

N OV E M B E R

DECEMBER

D AY TO N ECONOMY 1| Prior to the pandemic, Dayton’s real gross metropolitan product grew at an average annual rate of 1.4% from 2015 to 2019. During that same five-year period, job growth averaged 1.0% annually, with roughly 3,700 jobs added on average each year. 2| In 2020, COVID-19 mitigation measures and limited business activity caused the local economy to contract as much as 10.0% year-over-year in 2nd quarter. 3| In the year-ending 3rd quarter 2023, the metro’s inflation- adjusted economic output expanded 2.2%. 4| At the same time, the metro recorded a net gain of 11,000 jobs, expanding the employment base 2.9%. As such, Dayton’s unemployment rate in August 2023 declined 0.4 points year-overyear to 3.8%, in line with the national average of 3.9%. 5| During the past year, job gains in Dayton were most pronounced in the Education/ Health Services and Professional/Business Services sectors. 6| Despite job losses stemming from the pandemic, Dayton’s current employment base now sits roughly 6,300 jobs or about 2% above the pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

RENT 1| Over the past five years, annual change in effective asking rents in Dayton ranged from 2.2% to 10.3%. In 3rd quarter 2023, effective asking rents for new leases were up 3.6% year-over-year. That annual rent performance was below the market’s five-year average of 5.3%. 2| Looking at product classes in Dayton, Class A led for rent performance over the past five years. In 3rd quarter 2023, annual effective rent change registered at 2.3% in Class A units, 4.1% in Class B units and 4.4% in Class C units.

3| Among submarkets, the strongest annual rent change performances over the past year were in Greene County (5.1%) and South Montgomery County (3.8%). 4| The weakest performance was in North Dayton/Miami County with a decline of 0.1%.

JANUARY

FEBRUARY

MARCH

APRIL

M AY

JUNE

RENT GROWTH SECTOR

QUARTERLY

YEARLY

2.3% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 0.5%

5.1% 3.8% 2.8% 2.6% -0.1%

Greene County South Montgomery County Central Dayton / Kettering Northwest Dayton North Dayton / Miami County

Q3 2023 MARKET SNAPSHOT

Occupancy Y-O-Y Rent Growth Average Rent Per Unit

Pre1970s 95.6% 4.8% $901

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000+

95.1% 5.1% $964

95.8% 1.5% $1,008

95.3% 6.4% $1,240

95.9% 0.7% $1,470

EMPLOYMENT Unemployment Rate Jobs Added YTD

3.8% 11,000

Q UA R T E R 3 J U LY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

O C TO B E R

N OV E M B E R

DECEMBER

D AY TO N OCCUPANCY 1| Occupancy in the Dayton apartment market has ranged from 95.4% to 98.0% over the past five years, averaging 96.6% during that period. 2| Over the past year, occupancy lost 1.1 points, with the 3rd quarter 2023 rate landing at 95.5%. 3| Looking at product classes in Dayton, 3rd quarter 2023 occupancy registered at 94.4% in Class A units, 96.1% in Class B units and 95.8% in Class C units. 4| Occupancy in the more affordable Class C product was generally tightest over the past five years. Among submarkets, 3rd quarter 2023 occupancy was strongest in Greene County (96.6%) and Central Dayton/Kettering (95.9%).

SUPPLY 1| New apartment completions in Dayton were modest recently, as 737 units delivered in the year-ending 3rd quarter 2023. Completions over the past year expanded the local inventory base 1.3%. 2| In the past year, supply was greatest in Central Dayton/Kettering, with only North Dayton/Miami County and South Montgomery County receiving any additional supply. Annual new supply averaged 534 units, and annual inventory growth averaged 1.0% over the past five years. 3| During that period, new supply was concentrated in Central Dayton/Kettering and South Montgomery County, which received

931

66% of the market’s total completions. At the end of 3rd quarter 2023, there were 1,235 units under construction with 931 of those units scheduled to complete in the next four quarters. 4| Scheduled deliveries in the coming year are expected to be concentrated in Central Dayton/Kettering.

JANUARY

FEBRUARY

MARCH

1,235

units completed in past 12 months

APRIL

units currently in progress

M AY

JUNE

HIGHEST OVERALL PERFORMING SUBMARKET SUBMARKETS

RENT

OCCUPANCY

YOY

Xenia Dayton - West Bellbrook Beavercreek Kettering - East

$1,045 $917 $1,570 $1,373 $1,004

95.4% 98.2% 96.3% 96.9% 97.0%

13.2% 13.2% 9.3% 8.6% 8.4%

OCCUPANCY 93.6% 93.8% 95.7% 97.1% 97.2%

YOY 3.9% 3.4% 2.1% 0.8% -1.3%

D E V E LO P M E N T P I P E L I N E

LOWEST OVERALL PERFORMING SUBMARKETS SUBMARKETS Downtown Vandalia Miamisburg Miami Huber Heights

RENT $1,295 $794 $1,237 $1,206 $1,082

TOTAL FUTURE INVENTORY GROWTH SUBMARKET North Dayton / Miami County Central Dayton / Kettering South Montgomery County

CHANGE 4.5% 4.5% 1.2%

UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTION SECTOR

UNITS

Central Dayton / Kettering North Dayton / Miami County South Montgomery County

712 382 141

Q UA R T E R 3 J U LY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

O C TO B E R

N OV E M B E R

DECEMBER

L E X I N GTO N ECONOMY 1| Prior to the pandemic, Lexington-Fayette’s real gross metropolitan product grew at an average annual rate of 1.6% from 2015 to 2019.

During that same five-year period, job growth averaged 1.2% annually, with roughly 3,100 jobs added on average each year. 2| In 2020, COVID-19 mitigation measures and limited business activity caused the local economy to contract as much as 7.5% year-over-year in 2nd quarter. 3| In the year-ending 3rd quarter 2023, the metro’s inflation-adjusted economic output expanded 2.6%. 4| At the same time, the metro recorded a net gain of 11,100 jobs, expanding the employment base 3.9%.

5| As such, Lexington-Fayette’s unemployment rate in August 2023 rose 0.4 points year-over-year to 3.6%, below the national average of 3.9%.

During the past year, job gains in Lexington-Fayette were most pro-

RENT 1| Over the past five years, annual change in effective asking rents in Lexington-Fayette ranged from a decline of 0.2% to an increase of 15.4%.

In 3rd quarter 2023, effective asking rents for new leases were up 4.5% year-over-year. 2| That annual rent performance was below the market’s five-year average of 6.2%. 3| Looking at product classes in Lexington-Fayette, Class A led for rent performance over the past five years. 4| In 3rd quarter 2023, annual effective rent change registered at 5.2% in Class A units, 3.4% in Class B units and 7.6% in Class C units. 5| Among submarkets, the strongest annual rent change performance over the past year was in North Lexington (5.2%). 6| The weakest performance was in Downtown Lexington/University (3.3%).

JANUARY

FEBRUARY

MARCH

APRIL

M AY

JUNE

RENT GROWTH SECTOR

QUARTERLY

YEARLY

4.4% 2.3% 3.5%

4.7% 5.2% 3.3%

South Lexington North Lexington Downtown Lexington / University

Q3 2023 MARKET SNAPSHOT

Occupancy Y-O-Y Rent Growth Average Rent Per Unit

Pre1970s 95.0% 3.3% $895

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000+

96.3% 4.2% $1,079

95.1% 7.2% $1,123

96.5% 7.2% $1,318

96.5% 1.8% $1,362

EMPLOYMENT Unemployment Rate Jobs Added YTD

3.6% 11,100

Q UA R T E R 3 J U LY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

O C TO B E R

N OV E M B E R

DECEMBER

L E X I N GTO N OCCUPANCY 1| Occupancy in the Lexington-Fayette apartment market has ranged from 93.8% to 97.6% over the past five years, averaging 95.6% during that period. Over the past year, occupancy lost 0.2 points, with the 3rd quarter 2023 rate landing at 96.0%. 2| Looking at product classes in Lexington-Fayette, 3rd quarter 2023 occupancy registered at 97.0% in Class A units, 95.4% in Class B units and 95.7% in Class C units. Occupancy in Class C product was generally tightest over the past five years. 3| Among submarkets, 3rd quarter 2023 occupancy was strongest in North Lexington (96.4%). 4| The weakest reading was seen in Downtown Lexington/University (95.4%). 5| Over the past five years, North Lexington generally led for occupancy. During the coming year, occupancy in Lexington-Fayette is expected to register around 95.5%.

SUPPLY 1| New apartment completions in Lexington-Fayette were modest recently, as 324 units delivered in the year-ending 3rd quarter 2023. Completions over the past year expanded the local inventory base 0.7%. 2| In the past year, supply was greatest in North Lexington. Annual new supply averaged 380 units, and annual inventory growth averaged 0.8% over the past five years. 3| During that period, new supply was concentrated in South Lexington, which received 52% of the market’s total completions. 4| At the end of 3rd quarter 2023, there were 1,043 units under construction with 703 of those units scheduled to complete in the next four quarters. 5|Scheduled deliveries in the coming year are expected to remain concentrated in North

428

1,043

units completed in past 12 months

units currently in progress

Lexington.

JANUARY

FEBRUARY

MARCH

APRIL

M AY

JUNE

HIGHEST OVERALL PERFORMING SUBMARKET SUBMARKETS

RENT

OCCUPANCY

YOY

Southwest Southeast Northeast West East

$1,473 $1,172 $875 $1,038 $1,247

96.6% 96.6% 94.3% 96.6% 95.7%

13.0% 7.9% 7.6% 6.8% 6.0%

OCCUPANCY 98.1% 94.2% 98.9% 94.4% 92.3%

YOY 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 2.1% -1.1%

D E V E LO P M E N T P I P E L I N E

LOWEST OVERALL PERFORMING SUBMARKETS SUBMARKETS Scott South Central Downtown Jessamine Franklin

RENT $1,244 $1,132 $1,233 $1,302 $924

TOTAL FUTURE INVENTORY GROWTH SUBMARKET North Lexington South Lexington

Downtown Lexington / Downtown

CHANGE 3.8% 3.0% 0.0%

UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTION SECTOR

UNITS

South Lexington North Lexington

569 474

Q UA R T E R 3 J U LY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

O C TO B E R

N OV E M B E R

DECEMBER

LO U I S V I L L E ECONOMY 1| Prior to the pandemic, Louisville/Jefferson County’s real gross metropolitan product grew at an average annual rate of 2.0% from 2015 to 2019. During that same five-year period, job growth averaged 1.5% annually, with roughly 9,800 jobs added on average each year. 2| In 2020, COVID- 19 mitigation measures and limited business activity caused the local economy to contract as much as 7.9% year-over-year in 2nd quarter. 3| In the year-ending 3rd quarter 2023, the metro’s inflation-adjusted economic output expanded 1.6%. 4|At the same time, the metro recorded a net gain of 9,400 jobs, expanding the employment base 1.4%.

5| As such, Louisville/Jefferson County’s unemployment rate in August 2023 rose 0.5 points year-over-year to 3.8%, in line with the national average of 3.9%.

RENT 1| Over the past five years, annual change in effective asking rents in Louisville/Jefferson County ranged from a decline of 0.1% to an increase of 12.1%. In 3rd quarter 2023, same-store effective asking rents for new leases were up 3.0% year-over-year. 2| That annual rent performance was below the market’s five-year average of 5.0%. 3| Looking at product classes in Louisville/Jefferson County, Class A led for rent performance over the past five years. 4| In 3rd quarter 2023, annual effective rent change registered at 2.8% in Class A units, 2.4% in Class B units and 4.5% in Class C units. 5| Among submarkets, the strongest annual rent change performances over the past year were in South Central Louisville (5.8%) and Southwest Louisville (5.1%).

JANUARY

FEBRUARY

MARCH

APRIL

M AY

JUNE

RENT GROWTH SECTOR

QUARTERLY

YEARLY

2.1% 2.1% -0.1% % % %

3.3% 4.9% 0.8% % % %

Central Louisville Southeast Louisville Northeast Louisville Southwest Louisville South Central Louisville Northwest Louisville

Q3 2023 MARKET SNAPSHOT

Occupancy Y-O-Y Rent Growth Average Rent Per Unit

Pre1970s 92.8% 6.4% $1,033

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000+

94.6% 4.3% $1,049

93.4% 3.8% $1,164

95.6% 2.5% $1,080

94.5% 1.5% $1,374

EMPLOYMENT Unemployment Rate Jobs Added YTD

3.8% 9,400

Q UA R T E R 3 J U LY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

O C TO B E R

N OV E M B E R

DECEMBER

LO U I S V I L L E OCCUPANCY 1| Occupancy in the Louisville/Jefferson County apartment market has ranged from 94.2% to 97.3% over the past five years, averaging 95.4% during that period. 2| Over the past year, occupancy lost 1.6 points, with the 3rd quarter 2023 rate landing at 94.2%. 3| Looking at product classes in Louisville/Jefferson County, 3rd quarter 2023 occupancy registered at 93.9% in Class A units, 93.7% in Class B units and 95.4% in Class C units.

4| Occupancy in Class C product was generally tightest over the past five years. Among submarkets, 3rd quarter 2023 occupancy was strongest in South Central Louisville (95.2%) and Northwest Louisville (94.9%). 5| The weakest readings were seen in Southeast Louisville (93.1%) and Southwest Louisville (93.8%). Over the past five years, Northwest Louisville generally led for occupancy.

SUPPLY 1| New apartment completions in Louisville/Jefferson County were moderate recently, as 1,413 units delivered in the year-ending 3rd quarter 2023.

2| Completions over the past year expanded the local inventory base 1.5%.

In the past year, supply was greatest in Northwest Louisville. 3| Annual new supply averaged 1,983 units, and annual inventory growth averaged 2.2% over the past five years. During that period, new supply was concentrated in Northeast Louisville and Northwest Louisville, which received 56% of the market’s total completions. 4| At the end of 3rd quarter 2023, there were 3,710 units under construction with 1,824 of those units scheduled to complete in the next four quarters. 5| Scheduled deliveries in the coming year are expected to be concentrated in Southwest Louisville and Southeast Louisville.

JANUARY

FEBRUARY

MARCH

1,824

3,710

units completed in past 12 months

APRIL

units currently in progress

M AY

JUNE

HIGHEST OVERALL PERFORMING SUBMARKET SUBMARKETS

RENT

OCCUPANCY YOY

Charlestown/Sellersburg Elizabethtown Newburg/Buechel La Grange/Crestwood Shepherdsville

$1,081 $1,035 $1,116 $1,154 $1,283

98.5% 94.2% 94.3% 97.8% 98.7%

11.1% 9.8% 8.8% 8.6% 7.8%

OCCUPANCY 93.8% 93.3% 94.8% 94.6% 89.4%

YOY 1.6% 1.4% 0.2% -0.4% -1.5%

D E V E LO P M E N T P I P E L I N E

LOWEST OVERALL PERFORMING SUBMARKETS SUBMARKETS East Downtown / St Joseph Crescent Hill / St Matthews Jeffersonville Springhurst / Glenview Manor Central Downtown / Old Louisville

RENT $1,236 $1,271 $1,150 $1,382 $1,405

TOTAL FUTURE INVENTORY GROWTH SUBMARKET Southwest Louisville Southeast Louisville South Central Louisville Northwest Louisville Northeast Louisville

CHANGE 7.0% 5.5% 4.5% 1.7% 1.7%

UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTION SECTOR

UNITS

Southwest Louisville South Central Louisville Southeast Louisville Northeast Louisville Northwest Louisville

705 623 236 232 28

Q UA R T E R 3 J U LY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

O C TO B E R

N OV E M B E R

DECEMBER

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Q2

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