The Federal Election: How Will it Play Out in SA?

WORDS BY SEBASTIAN ANDREWS

A Labor landslide in Western Australia. Revolt against the Liberals from Independents in suburban Melbourne and Sydney. A fight between the parties for the crucial battlegrounds of Tasmania and Queensland. Much of the discussion around the upcoming May election revolves around every state, BUT South Australia. It’s understandable. We’re only 6.6% of the House of Representatives. Most of our electorates are uncompetitive. And despite being home to one of the nation’s most marginal electorates, typically, federal elections are not won or lost in South Australia.

But as South Australians reading this, I believe it is still important for us to be aware of how the federal election will play out in our own state. It may not be as interesting as, for example, 2016 when the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) made SA’s state elections a genuine three-way contest, but there are a few competitive seats that are worth looking at.

HELD BY: LIBERAL PARTY (1.4%)

Boothby is one of the nation’s most marginal seats, and one Labor MUST flip if it hopes to win government. This seat covers Adelaide’s southern suburbs, from Mitcham and Clarence Gardens to Blackwood and Bedford Park, and along the southern coast from Glenelg to Kingston Park. While historically a guarantee for the Liberals since redistribution in 1949 (minus a few occasions), this safe seat has become marginal in the last few decades, with Labor having come close to flipping it on numerous occasions. After experiencing a swing but falling short in 2019, Labor is confident that Vinnies CEO Louise Miller-Frost will finally flip it. The seat was held for two terms by MP Nicolle Flint, who announced her resignation early last year. The Liberals would hope that their replacement candidate, healthcare consultant and volunteer Rachel Swift, is seen as less controversial than capital ‘C’ conservative Flint and will be able to retain the seat. But if polls are to be believed (and they should be, I talk about this in my Issue 2 article), the Liberals plan seemingly isn’t working. Labor holds a strong lead in the TPP vote in the state as well as in seat polls, meaning that not even the seat’s historically Liberal lean, and a fresh, noncontroversial candidate will necessarily protect it from a potential flip.

To win, Labor likely needs to flip Liberal-tilting areas in the south such as Oaklands Park, Brighton South, and Bellevue Heights, while cutting into smaller Liberal leads in the west and along the coast.

The seat of Sturt covers Adelaide’s suburbs between the CBD and the Adelaide Hills, south to Beaumont, north to Giles Plains and Holden Hill. This Eastern suburbs seat was once held by the machiavellian Christopher Pyne. With Pyne’s retirement in 2019, it was retained by Liberal candidate and Steven Marshall’s former chief of staff, James Stevens, with a small swing in the Liberals’ favour.

In contrast to his predecessor, Stevens has generally kept a low profile and is relatively unknown outside of the electorate. His biggest national claim to fame was falling asleep during a voting marathon and nearly derailing Scott Morrison’s religious discrimination legislation. None of which has stuck with him, meaning that this maintained low profile could strengthen his re-election chances,

HELD BY: LIBERAL PARTY (6.9%)

shielding him from electoral backlash against the Morrison government. It could however, equally weaken the incumbency advantage he should hold over his Labor challenger, which is family therapist and counsellor Sonja Baram.

To win, Labor would need to perform well in voting booths around Norwood and up along Payneham Road, flipping booths such as Trinity Gardens, Glynde, and increasing their leads in those that voted Labor in 2019. Additionally, Labor would need to reverse small negative swings in northern suburbs precincts, and cut into strong Liberal margins in booths south of Kensington Road. This seat will be tougher than Boothby for Labor to flip, but the latest state election proves that it is still possible for them to achieve the necessary swings - so this seat should be watched closely.

The rest of South Australia’s electorates are largely uncompetitive. SA’s two other Liberal MP’s, Rowan Ramsey of Grey (rural north/west), and Tony Pasin of Barker (rural south-east) are guaranteed re-election – these seats were narrowly won in 2016 over NXT candidates but since then have reverted to uncompetitive Liberal/Labor matchups, favouring the Liberals. The potential candidacy of Senator Rex Patrick in Grey could make Grey competitive but Ramsey would still be favoured. Labor’s four MPs, Steve Georganas of Adelaide (CBD and inner suburbs), Mark Butler of Hindmarsh (Adelaide’s west coast), Tony Zappia of Makin (northern suburbs), and Amanda Rishworth of Kingston (southern beaches and suburbs) are in similarly uncompetitive races. SA’s other Labor electorate, Spence, is being vacated by incumbent MP Nick Champion but this outer-northern suburban seat is the safest for the party, with Transport Workers’ Union organiser/leader Matt Burnell no doubt easily able to retain the seat. While Rebekha Sharkie of Mayo (Adelaide Hills, Fleurieu Peninsula, and Kangaroo Island) faces a stronger Liberal candidate in financial professional, Allison Bluck, I still believe Sharkie is strong enough of an incumbent to keep the seat. While Bluck may have local connections, and the seat be held on a margin of 5.1, SA’s current political environment will make it very unlikely for the Liberals to achieve the necessary swing.

Six Senators are up for re-election. Penny Wong and Don Farrell (Labor), Simon Birmingham and Andrew McLachlan (Liberal), Stirling Griff (Centre Alliance), and Rex Patrick (Rex Patrick Team). Wong, Farrell, Birmingham, and McLachlan are almost guaranteed re-election, as often both major parties gain enough of the vote to take four seats at a minimum. Griff and Patrick are dead on arrival. They were both elected in the double-dissolution election of 2016 when a) the quota was far lower at 7.7% of the vote and b) both were candidates for NXT. Now running on their own merit, and requiring 14.3% of the state-wide, I see no way for either to win, especially now that Xenophon himself is running as an Independent. That leaves Labor, Liberals, Xenophon, and the Greens fighting for the last two seats. Xenophon is a serious contender even with SA-BEST’s collapse at the state election, but as of now I would rate the Greens’ Barbara Pocock and the Liberals’ Kerryn Liddle as most likely to take the final two seats. Despite likely making gains in votes, it’s doubtful Labor will win three seats – as the left vote is more split. Overall, the Senate will likely be three Liberal, two Labor, and one Green.