Arab Spring Realist Perspective

1 Arab Spring Realist Perspective Introduction The Arab spring has swept across the entire Arab world for close to 20 months since they were sparked off in Tunisia towards the end of 2010. From a secluded incident in which a trader in Tunisia torched himself to death after the authorities had cleared down his kiosk, public outrage grew to an extent where there were mammoth gatherings in the streets of the country for days calling for the resignation of the president. The events in Tunisia then played out in neighboring Egypt as hundreds of thousands of the country’s population, many of them the youth, took to the streets and forced the government out in a few months. The entire North Africa and the Middle East regions were engulfed in a series of protest matches as the nationals demanded for the ouster of their country’s respective regimes. Today, the struggle still continues particularly in Syria where government forces have engaged protestors in fierce battles that have often turned tragic. This paper seeks to discuss in detail the international security challenge that emanates from this uprising.

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The Threat of Terror Most of the Arab countries that bore the brunt of the spring are generally experiencing problems with their security. There have been other intermittent strikes and chaos as opposing groups clash with each other in streets to express their dissatisfaction and support for the incumbent transitional regimes. In Egypt, mammoth crowds of the country’s population took back to the streets soon after the fall of Hosni Mubarak to express their dissatisfaction in the manner in which the transitional regime had been governing the country. The Muslim Brotherhood, which is a group regarded as undertaking terror activities by most authorities in the world has been angling itself to take over the reins of power in the country (Anderson 2011).

In the vast Northern parts of the Libyan country, there have been security concerns following the regrouping of forces and other crude fighters who supported former president Muammar Gaddafi’s regime. The vastness of this region has particularly made it difficult for the transitional government authorities to cater for its security effectively, thus giving room for acts of terrorism to thrive unabated. There are already fears that Al Qaeda fighters and sympathizers have relocated to the area and are planning to make it their base (LeBlanc & Vanderle 2011).

The Arab spring could have helped to dispose of former despotic regimes that did little to improve on the plight of the nationals. However, in the ensuing confusion and the great happiness at their achievement, the nationals of these countries could easily hand power to leftist individuals and groups with very strong stands. These groups, such as the Muslim Brotherhood, have been at the forefront in denouncing the West and declaring war to Israel. If they succeed to take over the reins of power in their respective countries, there are fears that other terror groups, such as Al Qaeda, might find safe heavens operating in their territories (O'Neill 2005).

3 Internal wars Although the Arab spring appeared to have been a unanimous agreement and call by all the nationals of the countries involved in the civil strife, it is worth noting that there are other groups which never supported the revolutions. In the post revolution era, where most of the countries are now facing elections to end the transition, there have emerged rifts over whom to support and who not to. Supporters and sympathizers of the fallen regimes are taking this opportunity now to hit back at their adversaries who supported the civil uprising. This could cause internal tensions and lead to an all out war between the warring sides.

Additionally, all the countries that experienced revolutions are currently witnessing legal processes where former heads of state, senior government officials, as well as army commanders have been taken to court to answer to charges of misuse of power. Former Tunisian president Ben Ali who is now exiled is needed back home to answer to charges of corruption and bad governance during his reign. In Egypt, former head of state Hosni Mubarak and members of his regime have been taken to court to answer to charges of misuse of power during his reign, while Libya’s transitional government is holding former president Gaddafi’s son for the same charges.

The outcome of these cases could potentially plunge these countries into war particularly given that the fallen leaders still have support among the nationals.

Former army officials in Libya who fought against NATO to protect Muammar Gaddafi have regrouped and vowed to wage wars against the transitional government. These developments are a recipe for chaos and could play out to affect the world security if no serious action is taken. With most of the Arab countries being well endowed with oil deposits and wealth, battles over control of these natural wealth resources could soon break out given that security has been weakened in these countries following the shakeups (Baran 2005).

4 Piracy The Arab uprising was filled with a lot of promises for the youth populations in the affected countries. The motivation and the never ending zeal that was witnessed among the populations in the Arab world were particularly being fueled by the belief and hope that a new regime would make things better for them in general. A majority of these youthful protestors lack jobs or any other serious occupations that engage them substantially (Hamid 2011).

However, there has been little progress in these countries even with the successful ouster of former presidents and their governments. The transitional governments are struggling with the reality and even regimes that have been elected democratically to replace former despotic governments will take a considerable amount of time to get things in the right shape. Thus, participants in the uprisings are likely to get disillusioned by the slow pace of reforms and development. Many of them still remain unemployed and could easily get attracted to acts of lawlessness as a way of fending for their needs (Hamid 2011).

Piracy remains a lucrative lure for such groups of disillusioned youths. Most of the Arab countries have got access to seas and oceans, which make it easier for this kind of engagement.

Furthermore, the suspected terror cells that are thought to have anchored their operations in these countries because of the security issues could coerce the youths into it. Terror activities are expensive to sustain and the terrorist groups have been known to use piracy as a way of raising easy funds. On the other hand, this will have an adverse effect on the global security, particularly because trade between nations will be hampered. The East African Coast is already a very dangerous spot as scores of youth from war torn Somalia believed to be working for terrorist groups have resorted to piracy business (Hamid 2011).

Protracted war of words between the West and East

5 The Arab spring has for long been the bone of contention between the west on the one hand and other forces from the east, including China and Russia. With the emergent of China’s economy, there has been heightened activity from the country’s government as it seeks to expand its market and court new international friends from the outside world. Indeed, China’s investment has been increasing in Africa and other Middle East countries in its bid to establish its influence in the global scene.

On the other hand, the west which has not had a very good relationship with the majority of the Arab countries appeared to have been supporting the ouster of despotic regimes and rulers.

There has been pressure from the west for the transitional governments to make arrangements that will see the Arab countries conduct democratic elections for a fresh start. In Libya, the United States of America’s military led other NATO forces in bombarding the country as it accused former president Muammar Gaddafi of using excessive force to counter civilian protests that were calling for his resignation. Both China and Russia came out strongly to condemn such a move, terming it colonial. The two opposing forces played out a scenario that was reminiscent of the Cold War. In Syria, President Bashar Hafez al-Assad has continuously used excessive military force to wage war on groups of protestors in the country calling for his resignation and that of his regime. The West has again come out strongly to condemn the manner in which President alAssad has dealt with the crisis. There have been calls and suggestions even from the Arab League for an external military intervention, like the one used in Libya, to help in the ouster of al-Assad. However, China and Russia have expressed their support for President al-Assad and have warned the West against any attempt of pursuing military intervention, like was the case in

6 Libya. The West has accused China of fanning the war in Syria by providing weapon and other financial support to the beleaguered Syrian government.

These altercations between the world’s top powers are a global security concern. The war of words could easily degenerate into an all out war as each country moves to protect its foreign interests. Alternatively, a fully fledged war pitting opposing proxy groups of the powerful nations could be fought out in these Arab countries. Weapons and financial supply has already been witnessed as warring groups are being strengthened by their masters (Dannreuther 2011).

Potential outbreak of war and unrest in other Arab nations Although the Arab uprising was widespread, it spared some countries and regimes. In the Middle East, the comparatively stable Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was slightly shaken but the government survived. Other North African states that are predominantly Arab, such as Morocco, also witnessed slight protests but the aftermath was not as intense as in Libya or Egypt. The volatile Algeria was equally spared the tide of the spring (AlSayyad & Massoumi 2012).

However, it is worth noting that these Arab countries which did not face the full brunt of the uprising could be seating on a very deadly time bomb. The masses in these countries are watching the events as they unfold in the neighboring countries and have literally placed their governments on notice (Grovogui 2011). A slight stir in any of these countries’s political environment could result in serious civil strife that what has already been witnessed so far. The respective governments in these countries are currently under immense pressure to perform as per the expectations of the public. In a bid to safeguard their rule from facing the same predicaments witnessed in the region, these regimes could be angling themselves to powerful external allies, such as the US or China (Kamrava 2012).

7 In other words, the Arab uprising could appear to be losing steam but it could actually turn out to be deadlier than what has already been witnessed. On the one hand, the masses have come to discover that they can actually send a regime packing if they are not convinced with its performance. On the other hand, governments across the entire region are fully aware of the threat they are facing and have in turn fully prepared themselves for an eventuality. Even countries such as Tunisia and Egypt which have successfully elected, or are in the process of electing new democratic leaders could not be out of the woods yet. The countries remain to be war flashpoints, a scenario that not only affects these countries alone but also poses danger to the whole world (Hellyer 2011).

Arms spread and security risk to neighboring countries The Arab spring can be described in two different aspects; in the first instance, unarmed citizens went out in the streets as they called for the resignation of their respective governments.

This can be said of in reference to Tunisia and Egypt. In the second instance, the masses went out in the streets unarmed to call for the resignation of their respective governments. However, the besieged governments used force to repulse these uprisings and armed groups emerged as a result to seize the opportunity of engaging the government in battles. This pattern of uprising was particularly witnessed in Libya and now Syria, where armed groups are engaging the army in running battles.

The armed groups in both cases have been found to be in possession of expensive and superior arms. Controlling the spread of these fire arms has become a security concern particularly in the neighboring countries. In North Africa, the heavily armed Tuareg fighters took part in the war in Libya that saw the ouster and eventual murder of the country’s long term serving President Muammar Gaddafi. The Tuareg community is mainly nomadic and traverses

8 quite an expansive section of the region in search of water and pasture for their animals. The community has since retreated back to the Northern desert part of Mali where they have staged wars with the authorities as they declared the region sovereign. The superior arms that the community is carrying have seen them repulse attempts by the more organized Malian military to reclaim back the region.

In Syria, the heavily armed fighters in the Homs city have been engaging the military in fierce fighting as they attempt to force President al-Assad out of office. The Syrian rebels are known to be seeking their support and supplies from Lebanon and have also been escaping to Lebanon to avoid the government’s onslaught. This is a security risk to Lebanon and all the countries surrounding this region as more arms eventually end up in the hands of wrong people, including criminal gangs (Sageman 2004).

Technology and globalization When the first sporadic civil unrest was reported in Tunisia towards the end of 2010, there was little thought that the events could soon be widespread and engulf the entire Arab world. It has been determined that technology played a crucial part in fanning and spreading the unrest to the other parts of the world. The power of the social media was put into perspective as thousands of youth mobilized each other using Facebook and twitter to turn out in their large numbers and support the resolve to ouster their governments (Levy 2011).

When youth in the neighboring Egypt also began their efforts to ouster former President Hosni Mubarak, a lot of encouragement and emotional support to the youths came from their Tunisian counterparts. Having succeeded in their quest, the Tunisian youth were constantly in touch with their colleagues from Egypt, advising them on how to tackle the authorities so as to see their dream come true. The internet integration was also instrumental in calling for all the

9 youth in the Arab world to stand up and face the challenge if they wanted better governance (Sky 2011).

There are global security concerns that the Arab spring kind of revolution could spread out to other non-Arabic countries very fast because of the technological advantage. Thus, as the Arab world appears to be shaky because of fears of violence emerging at any time for reasons of poor governance, the rest of the world is not left out. Whatever is happening in Syria at the moment, for instance, could be replicated in as far as Europe or in the Americas in a split of a second because of the high integration of the internet (Robison, Crenshaw & Jenkins 2006).

Conclusion Despite the fact that the Arab uprising has been hailed for bringing democracy and sanity in the governance of most Arab countries, there are serious concerns and fears that the world could soon be experiencing challenges with its overall security as a result. Terrorist groups have been known to thrive in countries with security issues, such as what is currently being witnessed in Libya, to perpetuate their heinous acts. In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood which had for long been denied recognition by the former regime is poised to take over the reins of power once the military-led transitional government hands over power to a civilian rule after elections. The Muslim Brotherhood is a leftist group that adheres to strict Muslim practices and has been regarded in other quarters as a terrorist group. The powerful economies from the east and west could also plunge into war following the uprising, or sponsor their allies into a fully fledged war.

Both sides have massive interests in the Arab world and are seeking ways of protecting these interests. Dangerous weapons used in the uprising have also spread across wider areas and threaten the peace of neighboring countries.

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