Recovery & Growth Framework

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk | t/abcb_council

COVID-19 RECOVERY RECOVERY & GROWTH & FRAMEWORK FRAMEWORK

CONTENTS 01 02 03 04

05

06

ABOUT THIS REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY STAKEHOLDER SENTIMENT KEY RECOMMENDATIONS: SHORT-TERM ACTIONS KEY RECOMMENDATIONS: MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS ABC IN CONTEXT

2 CONTENT 02 TITLE OF SECTION

04 06 16 20 24 46

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

CONTEXT FOR THIS FRAMEWORK This framework was commissioned by Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon Council (ABC) to address the economic recovery and growth of the region following the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. It’s purpose is to provide a strategic framework that will focus on an economic agenda for inclusive growth.

Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon Borough Council is an industrial and food heartland, with pre-COVID Gross Value Add of almost GBP4bn, ~10% of Northern Ireland’s total.

Like its neighbours, the Borough faces lockdown-related unemployment, business closures and economic uncertainty, bringing the need for poverty alleviation, inclusive growth and innovative solutions to the fore.

In the policy context of economic recovery plans, a draft industrial strategy, draft tourism plan and draft programme for government, there is an opportunity to harness the Mid South West Growth Deal and the Borough’s next local development plan to set a proactive direction. This framework sets out options for a pathway for growth, from short-term recovery to long-term prosperity.

CONTEXT 03

COVID-19 RECOVERY RECOVERY & GROWTH & FRAMEWORK FRAMEWORK

01.

ABOUT THIS REPORT

4

TITLE OF SECTION

ABOUT THIS REPORT

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

ABOUT THIS REPORT This framework sets out an independent view of the borough’s current context and a series of options for the borough’s short term recovery through medium to long term growth. It provides a vision for recovery and growth for the people, place and future of the region.

Focus of our work

100+W 100+W 100+W 1

2

3

View the Council area in comparative context, local, national or international.

Identify opportunities for economic leadership from the Council for COVID-19 recovery.

Identify long term growth initiatives, to advance the Borough’s attractiveness, productivity, etc.

Key inputs in our work

Key Outputs in our work

Interviews with over 20 private & public sector stakeholders in or of relevance to the Borough

A list of immediate/short term COVID-19 recovery ideas: • where ABC Council should consider direct action; • where ABC Council should consider influencing and collaborating with other bodies to action.

Data provided by ABC Council, Ulster University, SRC, Health Trust

A long-list of strategic and tactical ideas for the Borough’s development.

Publicly available data, information and policy documents

UK and global best practice case studies

This is a compilation of grassroots ideas across the stakeholder base as well as best practice seen internationally.

Larger ideas will realistically need project specific or comparative cost-benefit analyses as next steps.

ABC Council should therefore short-list which of these it wants to explore further: • whether within its direct control; • whether influencing and collaborating with other bodies will be required.

ABOUT THIS REPORT 05

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

THE CHALLENGE CLARITY ON THE ABC PROPOSITION ROADMAP TO RECOVERY POTENTIAL INITIATIVES FOR COUNCIL 6

TITLE OF SECTION

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

THE CHALLENGE As an amalgamation of distinct urban centres, ABC requires a clear vision and brand of what it wants to be known for. Stakeholders continue to see at least 3 distinct areas, each with different strengths & challenges.

WEAKENESSES

STRENGTHS

A borough of ABC’s scale can realistically aim to be internationally known in 2-3 sectors. But poor physical connectivity, public sector dominated workforce and low productivity/local skill gaps are persistent themes across stakeholders. Prolonged uncertainty re EU Exit and now mass redundancies from COVID-19 lockdown need to be countered with confident civic leadership.

Armagh

Banbridge

Craigavon

• Untapped tourism potential including ecclesiastical role, city designation, North-South ministerial council, Georgian architectural theme, observatory and planetarium

• Dublin-Belfast corridor as a primary advantage, e.g. commuter wealth, viability of Game of Thrones attraction on main tour bus corridor • Relatively strong on high-street resilience with independent retailers, with busy Victorian core and Boulevard’s upmarket positioning

• NI’s industrial centre beyond Belfast, with good M1 connectivity to Belfast and its port • Exposure to long term growth sectors like HLS, AgriFood & Advanced engineering/manufacturing

• Heritage potential is undermined by poor connectivity with main Dublin- Belfast corridor • Modest physical infrastructure links with Craigavon and therefore Belfast • Poor physical infrastructure links with Banbridge/A1 and the Dublin corridor • Inconsistent digital connectivity

• Lack of physical infrastructure to both Craigavon and Armagh City undermines its integration into ABC and hence limits tourism potential for the rest of ABC • Limited land adjacent to A1 for development • Smaller centres, e.g. Gilford, have never recovered from deindustrialisation

• Untapped potential from Dublin rail connectivity • Poor road infrastructure links with Banbridge and the Dublin corridor • Inconsistent digital connectivity in rural hinterland • Continued perception / branding challenge as a ‘failed’ new town, lack of development consistency (modernist identity or otherwise) at its urban core, lack of upmarket food and beverage and office space • Long-standing town centre challenges for Portadown and Lurgan, both for retail footfall and attractive urban living

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 07

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

CLARITY ON THE ABC PROPOSITION Clarity on what we want to be known for is key to inform subsequent focus. Currently the three main areas of; AgriFood, Health & Life Sciences, and Advanced Manufacturing form that base.

AgriFood Lower volatility but margins need to improve with a move up the value chain & operational investments for the future Prominent locally as the backbone of ABC’s ‘food heartland’, but many local players are due an operational / technological overhaul.

Less volatile than other sectors if and when the focus can move beyond commodity into branded premium for export markets.

Health and Life Sciences

Advanced Manufacturing

Steady growth potential with limited volatility, not yet at scale

Volatile but high growth, high salary potential

Withstands economic shocks, globally outpacing GDP as the world ages, potential to balance volatility in other sectors, but still lacks scale as a genuine ABC ‘cluster’.

Potential to be a centre of excellence for life sciences in NI.

Tough short term outlook: allow 3-5 years for full recovery. But high growth potential ahead, especially if diversifying end markets, e.g. into air mobility and ‘green’ technology.

Key priorities

To attract private and public investment into ABC, our story will also need clear integration of our digital and ‘green’ position:

Invest in local skills & development beyond the role Councils traditionally play

08 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Uplift in digital connectivity, including the case for area-specific acceleration

Invest in and encourage operational productivity

Future-proof the case for infrastructure

Enabling penetration of EVs & autonomous vehicles

Incentivising green manufacturing

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

A future transforming through technology and innovation.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 09

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

A place where people and communities thrive 10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY Below is a mix of short, medium and long term options. As a Council we must build our skills base, link with relevant funding opportunities and proactively partner with relevant external bodies to address each stage of the recovery process.

Reaction

Resilience

Respond to crisis

High

Business supports

Supporting education & training

New Reality

Identify opportunities

Driving rural development

Adapt to a new world

Investment in infrastructure of the future

Medium

Investment in tourism

Financial resilience

Support operational resilience

Driving urban regeneration

Improve digital connectivity

Enabling technological developments

Supporting regional competitiveness

Footfall Activation

Service delivery; support consumer conďŹ dence

Build future-proof case for road investment

Integrate case for roads with cycling, pedestrian and mobility thinking

Incubator & innovation investment

Low

Indicative complexity to implement

Recovery

Manage through uncertainty

Reaction Next 3+ months Respond to crisis

Next 12 months

Next 3+ years EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

POTENTIAL INITIATIVES

SHORT TERM ACTIONS Council has identified a number of potential actions centred around key themes for consideration. Some realistically require partnership working and alignment with local and NI-level stakeholders.

Footfall activation - Increasing footfall in town areas through a number of practical steps along with clear, fact-based messaging putting COVID-19 risk in context and improving consumer confidence Business supports - Supporting local SMEs and larger enterprise through clear communication and information sharing about available support (ABC or 3rd party) available with direct or subsidised assistance with applications Service delivery - Provide a confident lead to the community and businesses re reopening and liaise with businesses on best practices and guidance.

12 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Operational resilience - Review local demand for ABC online business resources and the ABC Business Support Hub and establish client executive role for SMEs as first point of contact. Identify in-house expertise gaps to support local businesses / drive key sectors, including coordination / mitigation around redundancies and support upskilling of redundant workers Financial resilience - Model implications of COVID-19 on revenue generating services, stress test resulting 5 year financial model for council, and determine what, if any, direct business interventions are feasible.

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

A future building on shared visions, partnerships and commitment.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 13

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

People born with character, strength and resilience.

14 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

POTENTIAL INITIATIVES

MEDIUM TO LONG TERM ACTIONS Longer term actions require ABC Council to play a stronger role of influence and coordinate with NI Departments, Invest NI, Tourism NI and others. These include: Critical need for infrastructure - Road infra may be out of vogue for some and out of Council remit, but it is the single biggest obstacle cited.

Therefore influence relevant stakeholders to build a future-proof / ‘green’ case for road investment, integrate the case for roads with wider electric and autonomous vehicle, cycling and air mobility thinking, collaborate on ‘evolution of the bus’ and digital infra.

Driving urban regeneration and rural development - Reassert a clear vision for Craigavon, support Armagh’s tourism potential, practical improvements in town centres (e.g. development of shared office precincts and improving pedestrian design, clear and distinct architectural themes per centre). Improve turnaround for planning permissions. Investments in town centre programmes with DFC and rural towns with DAERA.

Enabling technological developments - Supporting Industry 4.0 and manufacturing R&D whether through relevant event hosting, specialist forums, direct or incentivised capex in robotics, Internet of Thingss, etc. in the borough.

Supporting regional competitiveness - Develop start-up and innovative business ecosystem, whether through sector forums, direct or incentivised capex in R&D, marketing, logistics, etc. in the region, supported by available funding sources e.g. the Shared Prosperity Fund, Peace Plus and the MSW Growth Deal funding.

Supporting education and training - Support upskilling of regional labour, particularly with improvements to industry apprenticeships and providing industry relevant courses aligned to core sectors. Enable retention of talent in engineering firms. This may involve going beyond the traditional Council remit.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 15

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

STAKEHOLDER SENTIMENT

SELECTED INTERVIEW INSIGHTS 16 TITLE OF SECTION

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

SELECTED INTERVIEW INSIGHTS Stakeholders reiterated the need for the Council to communicate an assertive stance to support recovery.

The government needs to reconfirm commitment to R&D. Companies that don’t do it need to do more. We need to become a hub for expertise long term.

Almac

There must be further clarification and lobbying on the details surrounding trade deals… Further investment in tourism & hospitality would enhance development as there would be synergy. Ulster Carpets

We have a great talent pool that has temporarily been disrupted. The first wave was governed by fear and not knowing what to do. The next round has to be without fear, and demonstrating that things are safe.

JW Kane Precision

Brexit will have a bigger impact than Covid-19.

The Council needs to promote local buying, local hotels and local produce. Any business case that doesn’t assess its impact on the environment won’t go ahead. Department of AE&RA

We welcome anything to do with cash flow. The Council needs to be openly supportive. There needs to be a balanced focus on health, risk aversion and economy. Ulster Carpets

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING

AGRI-FOODS

The risk to young people of dying from COVID-19 is statistically minimal. And yet the lockdown is impacting those doing key exams or entering the job market most. There needs to be more to counter media focus on the negatives, more about actual risk profile and what reasonable mitigation steps to take to get on with life. Southern Trust

This is a significant issue from a public health perspective, however the impact on the economy also needs to be emphasised. Confederation of British Industry

Confident leadership is key.

Keeping morale high is important.

Moy Park

AEROSPACE

EDUCATION

The Council can act as an independent broker, in promoting vocational education and getting the message across to parents. Local schools can perhaps do more around partnership.

Southern Regional College

GOVT/ PUBLIC

HEALTH AND LIFE SCIENCES

STAKEHOLDER SENTIMENT 17

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

SELECTED INTERVIEW INSIGHTS Stakeholders reiterated the need for the Council to communicate an assertive stance to support recovery.

There must be further clarification and lobbying on the details surrounding trade deals… Further investment in tourism & hospitality would enhance development as there would be synergy.

The sooner the economy opens the better.

We need clarity on timelines. We need ferry links re-opened to GB. Please lobby on measures to help our cash flow, extension of deferments, payment holidays, VAT & rates.

Employment is dependent on the furlough scheme. It needs to be more flexible, with more part time and flexible arrangements.

We want to retain employment and retail skills. Ulster Carpets

The introduction of basic elements such as lean supply chains, more information in terms of support functions, & growth deal projects would also be needed from the Council. Thompson Aerospace

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING

18 STAKEHOLDER SENTIMENT

AGRI-FOODS

Rural villages and towns [away from the main roads] have gone backwards in the last 40 years, they are in decline and so are the families in them...Places that are doing well, like Markethill, have better roads. Cross Group

We would like to see the gradual availability of staff while furlough is still being paid (like in RoI).

Norway had huge construction projects to keep the economy going. We want to see more stimulus for construction projects. Kingspan

Limitation of connectivity and digital infrastructure is a big issue. Councils could look at the opportunities that digitalisation brings with it, and should take their services online and look at their estate in terms of buildings (5-10 years plans).

Department of AE&RA

Extra costs for social distancing can’t be passed back to farmers. This will have to be compensated by retailers (conversations are starting). Fane Valley

For logistics and marketing we’re ok. Grants help us with company-specific R&D. But not all have the same confidence or awareness. InvestNI is under resourced compared with BordBia, so Councils can contribute on that hand-holding.

ABC may be better suited to a niche tourist focus than the volume game. There are several decent candidates for boutique hotels around Armagh and its orchards.

TourismNI

AEROSPACE

EDUCATION

Armagh Bramley apples has a status that is underused. There are other niche areas we should look to get origin status for. Linwoods

GOVT/ PUBLIC

HEALTH AND LIFE SCIENCES

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

SELECTED INTERVIEW INSIGHTS Stakeholders reiterated the need for the Council to communicate an assertive stance to support recovery.

The Council could provide political and economic support for apprenticeship schemes. Due to COVID-19, the issue is that the private commitment is now no longer there (62% reduction in employers taking on apprentices) but these skills will likely be demand again in 2- 3 years.

The Council can act as an independent broker, in promoting vocational education and getting the message across to parents.

We are not in competition with schools for those 16-18 year olds, it’s about options.

Southern Regional College

ABC could provide a hub for a food marketing body to unlock new products and innovation.

Opportunities came out of the last recession and are coming out of this one. But funding for innovation is crucial to help that mindset.

Cross Group

We would be happy to see support with NPD, engineering, robotics, food safety and so-on and tailor apprenticeships to skills required.

Automation will be key to the future of the sector, especially in picking and packaging of product and to compete with other major players.

Irwin’s Bakery

We’ve previously been told the funding wasn’t available for a modern research centre at Craigavon hospital. If growth funding is available, such a centre would help give the local HLS sector critical mass.

Southern Trust

The firm struggles with getting people with the right IT skills, the development of robotics is key.

We need to develop ‘no touch’ labour with automation and embracing industry 4.0. JW Kane Precision

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING

AGRI-FOODS

Whilst the ABC area is a good place to do business there are impending redundancies everywhere. A strategy would be retraining programmes for people who have been made redundant. Ulster Carpets

If you can automate then you cut out high end cost and remain productive. Further automation would give benefits. Technology will be the life and death of some businesses. Department of AE&RA

AEROSPACE

EDUCATION

GOVT/ PUBLIC

HEALTH AND LIFE SCIENCES

STAKEHOLDER SENTIMENT 19

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS SHORT-TERM ACTIONS

SHORT-TERM ACTIONS 20 TITLE OF SECTION

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

SHORT-TERM ACTIONS Actions for ABC to consider in the short term to aid COVID-19 recovery THEME

ACTIONS

Footfall activation

1. Off-street parking incentives throughout the borough for specific periods, in line with the Car Parking Strategy currently in development 2. Collaborate with the local Health Trust on a louder, can-do position in provincial media placing the risks of COVID-19 in factual perspective, highlighting initiatives taken re safety of high-street shopping and returning to the workplace.

3. Assertive, proactive social media voice: videos and virtual tours targeted and shared re retailer re-openings, highlighting the activities or events that are open or opening soon to generate footfall, working with retailers around digitalisation as well as omni-channel shopping e.g. click and collect options and tier two town centre promotions.

4. Low-density street events to foster community cohesion (e.g. variations on Banbridge Buskfest concept) according to PHA advice.

5. Acceleration of beautification / clean up activities with zero tolerance mandate (e.g. for graffiti, weeds, gum on pavement, peeling paint, crumbling facades), refer and consider direct subsidy for landlords for stonework and tile cleaning with approved, local vendors 6. Incentives for landlords of dormant high-street units to encourage relevant pop-ups, and in the interim local aesthetic window dressing 7. Continue targeted, cost-efficient (and/or temporary) pedestrianisation of streets (e.g. potted plants, temporary signage)

Business supports

1. Clear and timely communication with businesses about available supports (see later), including either inhouse or subsidised 3rd party professional application support to improve the success rates of ABC businesses 2. Rent rebates for tenants occupying council buildings and targeted interventions to minimise commercial tenant evictions 3. Local grants for businesses to move online, training and mentorship to support the move 4. Upskilling and mentorship of redundant workers, host job matching programme or assistance for apprentices whose employment has no materialised as a result of COVID-19 and collaborate with Department of Economy and Department of Community on planned activities.

5. Local financial supports specific to companies that do not meet the threshold for national schemes e.g. those investing in growth and hence loss-making in 2019.

6. Strength in numbers: where there are a common shortlist of immediate issues among your larger businesses (e.g. idle land available for FDI only, poor roads, lack of footpath), take it collectively to InvestNI, Dept Infrastructure and elsewhere as relevant.

Service delivery

1. Lead by example with all in-person service delivery up and running with context-relevant adjustments in procedures. All services that could be migrated online are already / have a clear timeline to get there. Consider areas of operational improvement and efficiencies.

2. Continue to communicate with businesses what is and is not within your power to support, incl. what additional measures UK, NI or council can take as a result of EU exit.

3. Continue to liaise with and advise businesses on best practices and recommended guidance on reopening and returning to work, including resharing key messages from the NI Executive, Health Trust and providing additional clarity to businesses where necessary.

4. Continue to progress town centre action plans and marketing campaigns

SHORT-TERM ACTIONS 21

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

SHORT TERM ACTIONS Actions for ABC to consider in the short term to aid COVID-19 recovery THEME

ACTIONS

Operational resilience

1. Review local demand for ABC online business resources and ABC Business Support Hub to assess short term capacity requirements and reallocation opportunities across council staff to support local businesses, including establishing a client executive role for SMEs who would act as the first point-of-contact for local businesses (e.g. those not yet in Invest NI’s sphere) 2. Identify challenges faced by rural businesses and opportunities for rural development and support programmes.

3. Develop structured programme for local business with the required inhouse skillsets, from active sector-knowledgeable relationship managers to coordination activities incl. partnering with third-party organisations. Consider formal and periodic stakeholder forums with supporting staff for key sectors, key trade corridors or themes (e.g. Industry 4.0) and FDI forums 4. Recruit / build inhouse expertise of available provincial, national and international grant landscape to proactively approach local businesses and assist with the application process. This can be partly served inhouse or through referred and/or subsidised 3rd party support from within NI 5. Develop programme to provide ‘match making’ and skills retraining for people made redundant, focused on two to three target sectors. Host forum with academic institutions and major employers in the area to ensure focus on major skill gaps. This is in line with recommendations put forward by Pivotal’s report on NI recovery in terms of ensuring skills and training for people in sectors experiencing high furlough and/or redundancy levels. See appendix for our summary of SRC course types re ABC sectors of focus.

Financial resilience

1. Model implications of COVID-19 on revenue generating services (e.g. rent on council buildings, development applications, business permits) 2. Assess increase in demand and project resulting cost implications for non-revenue generating services (e.g. public spaces, information sharing and mentoring businesses, increased digital or real time communication to residents and businesses) 3. Stress test the resulting 5 year financial model for council, setting clear parameters within which to make informed decisions around subsidy schemes, direct local grants, capex, hiring and influencing other bodies

22 SHORT-TERM ACTIONS

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

A place that succeeds through resilience, enterprise and determination.

SHORT-TERM ACTIONS 23

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS

OVERVIEW OF KEY LONGER TERM THEMES LONG TERM ACTIONS 24 MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

OVERVIEW OF KEY LONGER TERM THEMES The proposed mid to long-term actions have been grouped across these 6 key themes

Supporting rural development

Supporting education & training

Supporting urban regeneration

Investing in infrastructure of the future

Supporting technological developments

6

Developing regional competitiveness

Key Themes MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM TITLE OF ACTIONS SECTION 25

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

A place improving connections for work and family life.

26 MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

LONG TERM ACTIONS Long term actions to consider, across a number of themes including infrastructure, upskilling and industrial modernisation.

THEME: INVESTING IN INFRASTRUCTURE OF THE FUTURE Build a future-proof case for road investment

• The poor condition of local roads and lack of (dual) A-road connectivity between ABC centres is a consistent theme from stakeholders.

Relatively long journey times across the borough undermine other ambitions for the region including Armagh City and Craigavon’s integration with the Dublin-Belfast eastern economic and tourism corridor.

• Therefore influence DfI on behalf of businesses on the need for specific physical infrastructure improvements, e.g. M12-Carn-Seagoe as Craigavon’s gateway seeing high levels of congestion, dual carriage links for Armagh City and for the A1 westwards.

• With road investment out of vogue, this need must be ‘packaged’ in a wider spatial plan and in long term ‘green’ context to improve the chances of success with the Department. For example, electric and automated vehicle (AV) technology improvements over the next 10-20 years realistically make on-demand, road transport a cleaner, more financially accessible alternative to today’s bus and rail public transport, while unlocking new cohorts to greater mobility (e.g. elderly, teenagers). Yet B-roads with mixed agricultural, cycling and pedestrian use are significantly more complex for AV roll-out.

• ABC’s case for long term road improvements needs to set that ‘green’ and ‘mobility’ scene proactively with associated smart-charging infrastructure (e.g. paired sub-stations with viable, high-demand routes, inductive charging for high-frequency public transport), early AV vehicle testing and adoption (central Craigavon is the ideal NI location for AV trials given its relatively simple road structures and separated pedestrian routes), with associated 5G connectivity required to support AV.

Integrate the case for roads with wider cycling, pedestrian and air mobility thinking

• Cycling opportunities in ABC are largely limited to leisure, with limited opportunity for safe, local commuting. Consider the opportunities for green funding around cycle lanes and implement app-based bike sharing schemes for each of the larger urban centres (a variety of directly operated or incentivised private models exist elsewhere).

• Promote greater integration of urban areas with pedestrian priority, more appealing skybridges, quality and distinctive surfaces (e.g.

Portadown train station with high-street, Asda with Portadown centre) and greater near-urban walking options (e.g. Portadown and Banbridge riverbanks) • Continue to build on existing masterplans and strategies for the borough and key priorities within the Land Development Plan.

MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS 27

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

LONG TERM ACTIONS Long term actions to consider, across a number of themes including infrastructure, upskilling and industrial modernisation.

THEME: INVESTING IN INFRASTRUCTURE OF THE FUTURE Trialling air mobility options e.g. drones and air taxis

• The age of air mobility is coming. The UK projects almost 80,000 drones operated by the State and private enterprise by 2030. Dublin is seeing commercial delivery trials while the likes of Brussels are trialling the integration of drones into emergency service vehicles.

Air taxis able to seat several passengers are already test flying and will be operating commercially in multiple cities by the mid- 2020s.

Several cities, including Melbourne and Denver are proactively reaching out across the dozens of developers to be pioneer regions, with ‘vertiports’ and ‘vertistops’ being integrated into their development plans. Meanwhile, New Zealand councils are considering air mobility’s potential specifically to develop rural connectivity and economies.

• The nature of Craigavon’s manufacturing sites (often with multiple sites for single owner) and ABC’s wider settlement pattern / poor quality of roads mean that drones will play a role sooner or later, and likely represent significantly lower capex and faster results than upgrading of key ABC roads - to do business.

• See appendix for more information on air mobility.

Collaborate with Translink on the evolution of the bus

• UK-wide and global bus use is in steady decline outside large metropolitan areas. In response, several towns and cities are trialling more flexible use of on-demand mini-buses, subsidised where necessary, as a more convenient alternative to conventional fixed-route bus networks.

• ABC’s population distribution would lend itself well such concepts. Talk to and learn from those UK areas where it has (e.g. Merseyside) and has not (e.g. Oxford) proved viable, including • long-standing schemes abroad (e.g. Melbourne) before making an approach to Translink or other ride- share providers.

Improve digital • The Full Fibre Northern Ireland Consortium (FFNI) Programme made a successful collective bid for £15m in funding to support digital connectivity in the region infrastructure development across NI, to be divided equally across 10 councils, with funding to be spent by 31st March 2021.

• Internet speeds in the ABC region are lower than the NI average (88% of ABC with superfast coverage compared to 89% for Northern Ireland average and 99% in Belfast).

• Lower penetration to Virgin Media cable, full fibre and gigabit broadband compared to other regions will impact business growth, competitiveness and productivity.

• Many of the manufacturing businesses which have relative concentration of staff on site, even during COVID-19 lockdown, did not see this as a priority, However, it clearly is a factor more relevant for established professional service businesses and start-ups where remote working is more practical.

28 MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

A future with sustainable foundations.

MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS 29

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

30 MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

LONG TERM ACTIONS Long term actions to consider, across a number of themes including infrastructure, upskilling and industrial modernisation.

THEME: SUPPORTING URBAN REGENERATION Investment in Armagh City’s tourism potential

• More assertive architectural and building material planning regime with retrospective facading to restore the Georgian integrity of central Armagh City.

• Consider cost-benefit of supporting specific pipeline projects (e.g. Observatory and Planetarium ambitions for an international tourism and educational attraction, revive Armagh Gaol use cases, high-end orchard based accommodation or restaurants) as well as marketing around its ecclesiastical heritage.

• In terms of target market, Tourism NI view is that Armagh should first tap the all-island tourist market as a relatively under-visited ‘hidden gem’, but needs to be realistic that lack of attractions including evening economy limit its current appeal for international tourist market. Working with them to evolve the proposition and its ambition is therefore important.

• Per related infrastructure point, Armagh’s fundamental challenge to its tourism potential is lack of dual-carriageway link to A1 and investment in the east and west link roads in the area.

• There is also a need to diversify the local economy beyond public sector employment.

• Continual investments also required to support local communities in Banbridge, Portadown and Lurgan.

Investment in innovation: • Recognise the new town status of Craigavon and link with other similar new towns in the UK and lessons learnt in relation to a clear vision for development, including integration of retail, leisure and residential development.

Craigavon • This vision or need to be known for innovation is linked to several other ideas discussed in this pack, e.g. incubator site, shared office space, on- demand buses, and development of air mobility infrastructure, with those transport ideas seeing Craigavon as good a pilot environment as any in the province.

• Craigavon’s manufacturing scale may support an international branded 3- 4 star business hotel. Build on existing collaboration with Invest NI for available non-Belfast based hotel grant, similar to the investment made by Invest NI to support the development of the luxury hotel and spa at Killeavy Castle Estate in the Newry, Mourne & Down Council area. This would complement the ask mentioned by manufacturers around international client hosting facilities as well as the idea of ABC as a host of specialist conferences relevant to its key sectors.

• We note the opening of the South Lake Leisure Centre will improve leisure offerings in the borough.

Sources: Stakeholder consultations | NISRA | Consultancy.uk | Lancashire Skills Hub | Information Age | FENews | Construction Industry Federation ‘Construction Industry Economic Update’ May 2019 | ‘The Construction Industry: Statistics and Policy’ House of Commons briefing paper 01432 | Agenda NI | Department of Infrastructure | MPDI ‘Revolution 4.0: Industry vs Agriculture in a Future Development for SMEs’ 2019 | Oliver Wyman ‘Agriculture 4.0’ | Forbes ‘What is Industry 4.0

MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS 31

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

LONG TERM ACTIONS

Long term actions to consider, across a number of themes including infrastructure, upskilling and industrial modernisation.

THEME: SUPPORTING URBAN REGENERATION Built heritage

• Build on existing built heritage transformation plans for Armagh (£6.3m investment from the Council and the Heritage Lottery Fund in 2018) and Lurgan (£2m National Lottery funding secured in 2018) for other town centres. The Borough’s Local Development Plan will provide more guidance on heritage assets.

• Introduce grant funding for landlords in Armagh, Banbridge, Portadown and Lurgan to maintain historical assets and buildings, with penalties for ill maintained buildings • Compared with tourist towns in much of Europe, ABC’s centres lack architectural consistency. Consider clear architectural themes distinct to each centre / street that inform incentives, disincentives and planning speed and outcome, e.g. Georgian in Armagh, modern/post-modern in Craigavon, Victorian in Banbridge, Lurgan and Portadown.

• Pursue more assertive city linkages with one criteria being attractive urban cores and skills/initiative transfer around how the build environment was improved and maintained (e.g. Nuremburg, Strasbourg, Riga) • More assertive intervention where deindustrialsed, historic sites remain dormant (e.g. Gilford Mill).

Practical improvements

• The Local Development Plan will also provide additional guidance around urban development and town centre regeneration.

• Per related infrastructure point, improve pedestrian design in town centres (e.g. attractive walkways that lead footfall from bus and train stations to high streets, riverfront walkways) • Increase architecturally sensitive rain coverings on the high streets through grant incentives for landlords with approved local vendors • Support development of shared office precincts in each urban core, attracting branded international offerings (e.g. WeWork), incubation spaces, local sponsored venues (e.g. Bank of Ireland, similar to their concept in Dublin) and others, including a potential landmark site beside Portadown train station with upmarket food and beverage outlets to attract daytime footfall.

• Lobby for support programme for urban centres and tier two towns with DFC and DAERA

Sources: Stakeholder consultations | NISRA | Consultancy.uk | Lancashire Skills Hub | Information Age | FENews | Construction Industry Federation ‘Construction Industry Economic Update’ May 2019 | ‘The Construction Industry: Statistics and Policy’ House of Commons briefing paper 01432 | Agenda NI | Department of Infrastructure | MPDI ‘Revolution 4.0: Industry vs Agriculture in a Future Development for SMEs’ 2019 | Oliver Wyman ‘Agriculture 4.0’ | Forbes ‘What is Industry 4.0’

32 MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

A future excited by the opportunities of a global stage.

MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS 33

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

A future shaped by supporting entrepreneurs.

34 MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

LONG TERM ACTIONS

Long term actions to consider, across a number of themes including infrastructure, upskilling and industrial modernisation.

THEME: SUPPORTING RURAL DEVELOPMENT • Road investment will support rural economic development in the borough, including improvements on the road between Armagh City and Belfast port and continuing to work with DfI on road plans with respect to the east west link roads in Armagh.

• Positioning of a dual carriageway link westwards from the A1 would also materially improve the prospects for smaller settlements (e.g. bringing Gilford or Scarva into Belfast and Dublin commuter belts, or to the east of the A1, Rathfriland).

• Project Stratum aims to improve broadband connectivity by extending Next Generation Access (NGA) broadband infrastructure across Northern Ireland; ensuring investment is targeted appropriately and improves connectivity in rural regions and small businesses will be key, not least rural Armagh. The Full Fibre Northern Ireland Consortium (FFNI) Programme will also support digital connectivity in rural areas.

• Lakes including Lough Neagh are underused, with existing facilities not sufficiently interactive to draw more domestic tourists. More investment in tourism will be key to supporting the rural economy.

• In addition, the view from TourismNI and some food players was that more generally should be made of Armagh’s orchards, including around boutique hospitality and Designation of Origin type status. This could build upon existing ‘food heartland’ branding.

• Continued investment in AgriFood and agri-tech, for example through collaboration with AgriFood Quest, will also support long term productivity and economic growth in rural areas in the borough. Future-proofing farming practices with incentives to collaborate on IoT, data-driven decisions and new crop trends (e.g. hemp and climate-suitable ‘super foods’) will be key. Development of an AgriFood strategic plan in partnership with sectoral representatives.

• In line with the preferred options outlined in 2018, rural development needs to be balanced with the focus of housing growth on Armagh City, Banbridge Town and Craigavon area. This will ensure rural communities can be sustained and infrastructure provision, access to services and good and employment across the borough can be managed appropriately for inclusive growth. Rural development should be focused on reducing broadband deprivation, improving road infrastructure and boosting investment and innovation in existing sectors.

• Implementation of rural development funded programmes including village enhancement schemes.

Sources: Stakeholder consultations

MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS 35

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

LONG TERM ACTIONS Long term actions to consider, across a number of themes including infrastructure, upskilling and industrial modernisation.

THEME: SUPPORTING EDUCATION AND TRAINING FUTURE PROOFING SKILLS • ABC businesses report skill shortages when assessing applicants (26%) (UK Department of Education Employer Skills Survey 2017 for Northern Ireland).

• AgriFood sector in particular had pre-COVID-19 skill shortages, compounded by higher wages in advanced manufacturing. This appears to no longer be an issue in the medium term. Several stakeholders were content to continue to rely on large numbers of low skilled employees. However, future proofing the regional economy for 2030 and beyond realistically means such companies need encouraged to increase productivity through automation.

• Continue to partner with DfE, InvestNI, Intertrade Ireland and the SRC to ensure skills available in the region match demand. Ensure focus on employability agenda in tertiary education and that steps are in place to support students acquire the skills demanded by industry and obtain employment.

• Initiatives such as the Belfast Enterprise Academy, a programme enabling degree level students to develop and launch their own business, can also drive skills development among students.

• Based on high level analysis of data from SRC enrolments in ABC by sector area, it appears a range of courses are available, however, there is limited alignment with ABC’s three key sectors. For example, there were only 527 enrolments in agriculture-related courses out of total enrolments of around 50,000 over the last three years. There were over 2,000 enrolments in manufacturing / engineering-related courses, however, there was a general lack of courses in the health and life sciences sector beyond those for health practitioners (i.e. beyond medicine, dentistry, nursing, social care, etc.). See appendix for summary of SRC course volumes re ABC’s priority sectors.

• Skills and development is also a theme raised in Pivotal’s recent report on the NI economy, with opportunities to re-train and upskill being key to ensuring long term employment levels and a focus on investment and training opportunities in areas with specific skills shortages (e.g. engineering and technology).

• Develop an inclusive growth agenda and link with DFC regarding social deprivation and long term unemployed programmes.

• Further detail on other approaches on supporting skills development in key priority areas are set out on the following slide.

Sources: Stakeholder consultations | NISRA | Consultancy.uk | Lancashire Skills Hub | Information Age | FENews | Construction Industry Federation ‘Construction Industry Economic Update’ May 2019 | ‘The Construction Industry: Statistics and Policy’ House of Commons briefing paper 01432 | Agenda NI | UK Department of Education, Employer Skills Survey 2017 | Pivotal Covid-19 in Northern Ireland - A New Economic Vision

36 MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

A place investing in people, skills and talent.

MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS 37

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

People that succeed through enterprise and determination.

38 MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

LONG TERM ACTIONS

Long term actions to consider, across a number of themes including infrastructure, upskilling and industrial modernisation.

THEME: SUPPORTING EDUCATION AND TRAINING Make more of apprenticeships

• A common theme was that apprenticeships are insufficiently attractive or insufficiently marketed to employers and schools / parents.

Consider supportive messaging campaigns with SRC, etc. but also additional direct funding to prioritised course areas, e.g. robotics engineering, food safety, life sciences, holistic aerospace design, advanced manufacturing.

• Council can play honest broker to encourage the promotion of apprenticeships in school settings. While this may be beyond the traditional remit of Council, it is a good example of where the role for Council may need to evolve to remain relevant.

• Programmes such as T-Levels, the Upskilling Lancashire Project and collaborative graduate schemes have potential for ABC. • One example is West Herts College, which provides vocational courses and apprenticeships in England. It opened a new campus in Hemel Hempstead in 2017 with an expanded range of courses that cater to Hertfordshire’s growing industries, with plans to construct a new engineering and construction wing which is being funded by the Hertfordshire Local Enterprise Partnership.

• A more ambitious intervention would be to champion a new technical university, much as Hereford has with ‘New Model in Technology and Engineering’, the UK’s first greenfield university in 40 years, where the local authority is directly accountable and underwrote the loan on a town centre location. An equivalent in NI context may be to work with UU on a new Armagh City or proposed Craigavon campus focused round 2-3 sectors, bringing students into the urban setting with associated uplift in footfall as anticipated in Belfast Cathedral Quarter.

• Pursue more assertive city linkages with one criteria being successful local apprenticeship intervention for skills/initiative transfer.

Global talent

• UK visa salary thresholds at • £26k are not designed for NI pay grades, Council should collectively influence NI bodies for NI-specific variation on the UK working visa.

• However, this should not be focused on low skilled workforce for the AgriFood sector, as to do so would only delay their interest in required productivity investments. In contrast, it is a relevant issue for junior scientists and engineers in life science, food safety and advanced manufacturing where NI salaries will typically be >20% off English rates.

• This can also support broader economic growth in the region

Sources: Stakeholder consultations | NISRA | Consultancy.uk | Lancashire Skills Hub | Information Age | FENews | Construction Industry Federation ‘Construction Industry Economic Update’ May 2019 | ‘The Construction Industry: Statistics and Policy’ House of Commons briefing paper 01432 | Agenda NI | UK Department of Education, Employer Skills Survey 2017

MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS 39

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

LONG TERM ACTIONS

Long term actions to consider, across a number of themes including infrastructure, upskilling and industrial modernisation.

THEME: SUPPORTING TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS LEAD THE CHARGE FOR NI ON INDUSTRY 4.0 • Industry 4.0 refers to the Fourth Industrial Revolution; the transformation of traditional manufacturing and industrial practices with Internet of Things (IoT)- driven technologies, augmented decision making and advanced automation / robotics.

• Many local employers cite Industry 4.0 and the need to improve productivity, but openly acknowledge they are very early in their own learning curve on the topic.

As such, the Council can pioneer regular hosting of relevant trade events / showcasing of relevant technologies, e.g. robotics specific to food hygiene or advanced manufacturing. This can be done in collaboration with private sector professional event players or centrally organised, and could be integrated with the business case for 1-2 new international quality hotels in the region.

• Beyond the borough, Belfast’s ‘factory of the future’ concept is cited by manufacturers, as is Loughry campus as relevant for advances in AgriFood. What is less clear is what type of facility or focus - that has NI-wide appeal - ABC could viably host, ag-tech and ag-processing robotics, or a farming data analytics centre, being examples cited. Further exploratory research is required by Council.

• Related, is the digital infrastructure and broadband point to allow practical roll-out of Industry 4.0, not least at the farm level with IoT and drones becoming increasingly common on farms abroad, including England and New Zealand.

• Likewise, consider directly incentivising investments in robotics in the borough (e.g. through matching x pence to each pound of company investment in the area up to an agreed ceiling per applicant). Encourage businesses to access funding available from the British Business Bank.

• As flagged, drones and now air mobility are fast emerging areas, with flying air taxi prototypes already in use. Companies involved in its supply chain will benefit from the convergence across several digital trends, including AV, IoT, battery technology in a sector that will eventually rival both automotive and traditional aviation sectors. See appendix for further information on this trend that could complement ABC both from an advanced engineering but also infrastructure / cross-borough connectivity perspective.

Sources: Stakeholder consultations, MPDI ‘Revolution 4.0: Industry vs Agriculture in a Future Development for SMEs’ 2019 | Oliver Wyman ‘Agriculture 4.0’ | Forbes ‘What is Industry 4.0’

40 MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

A future transforming through technology and innovation MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS 41

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

LONG TERM ACTIONS

Long term actions to consider, across a number of themes including infrastructure, upskilling and industrial modernisation.

THEME: SUPPORTING REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS R&D, testing or marketing hub

• There are a variety of sector specific concepts that may warrant cost-benefit analysis. For aerospace, for example, this includes accredited test facilities. Players both within and outside of the borough lack regional access to test facilities (e.g. ≤16G force impact assessments) that materially increases speed to market. Bilateral conversations between Thompson and Invest NI are exploring this, but it is in ABC’s interest to host an open access site that would attract non-borough users and in turn foster a wider aerospace cluster and spin-off opportunities (e.g. air taxis, ground AVs) • A revamped and empowered food marketing board for NI was cited by some stakeholders, with SMEs often lacking the international best practice around marketing and related psychology and science. While complementary to Loughry for NI-wide appeal, there is no need for it to be collocated and ABC could seek to host

Life sciences centre of excellence

• Use the Growth Deal project shortlisting process to revisit previous applications around building out health research, e.g. Craigavon Area Hospital’s Cardiac Research Unit’s proposals for a 2,000 sq ft shared access “flexi-laboratory” facility.

• This would provide suitable facilities for companies to carry out R&D / new product • / service development in the life sciences sector and increase innovation and productivity in the sector.

• Initial discussions took place with relevant stakeholders including Queen’s University and the Health Trust when the Craigavon Area Hospital project was proposed in 2010.

• As a first step, invite both the hospital and sector players like Almac to explore if the original proposal remains relevant to the sector at large and brainstorm investments of mutual interest.

Warehousing and logistics

• Facilitate development of a logistics hub - due to the large number of international manufacturers across high value adding industries, significant synergies and cost efficiencies could be achieved through aggregating shopping, material procurement and warehousing functions.

• Consider current land zoning restrictions to allow for increased warehousing space.

• Economic development land can be allocated for this purpose and to boost competitiveness more broadly. Based on the 2018 Preferred options Paper, we note a recommended allocation of land was 72ha for Armagh, 59ha for Banbridge and 160ha for Craigavon. Further sites can be identified and sourced if required, particularly if the potential of the A1 is to be realised.

Reposition AgriFood in the economy

• Work with AgriFood Strategy Board to reposition AgriFood in the economy and focus on branded and premium quality exports.

• Continue advocacy role with central government to support regional competitiveness of AgriFood, by developing an AgriFood action plan.

Sources: Stakeholder consultations

42 MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

LONG TERM ACTIONS

Long term actions to consider, across a number of themes including infrastructure, upskilling and industrial modernisation.

THEME: SUPPORTING REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS INVESTMENT IN TOURISM AND HOSTING INFRASTRUCTURE: HOTELS • Build on priorities outlined within “Transform: A Tourism Strategy (2017-22)” and the Regeneration and Development Strategy (2015-20) to increase average tourism spend to equal the highest in Northern Ireland. A key driver of this will be boosting the night-time economy and overnight visitors.

• Some stakeholders cited the lack of 4-5 star accommodation in the borough, while others explicitly flagged it was not an issue or would not be an issue as long as physical infrastructure remains as is.

• A cost benefit study of accommodation potential in the borough may identify several viable options, while avoid the supply glut that Belfast now potentially faces. Partnership working with both Invest NI and Tourism NI would be key.

• Activity in other Councils would suggest at 4-5 star accommodation that the borough could sustain 1-2 new builds/refurbs.

• Related, smaller, scalable accommodation could be consciously positioned within Orchards and may also be worth pursuing, based on existing research around demand for accommodation in the area and in line with Transform: A Tourism Strategy, with grant viability for local entrepreneurs. This can also be developed into an international visitor experience through investment in the orchards and the creation of food trails and tours. Develop a hotel investment prospectus as a starting point.

• Another example, Craigavon’s manufacturing area, particularly if tied to regular hosting of international sector-specific events and international clients, may justify an international 3-4 star business hotel, attracted with Invest NI grants.

• In terms of other examples, Athlone (while located along the Dublin-Galway corridor) supports several international brand 4 star hotels (e.g. Radisson Blu and Sheraton), with heavy use by locals as a weekend social venue, similar to the borough’s current 3 star venues. However, more upmarket international brands also realistically create their own hinterland - and similar brands around Craigavon, for example, would realistically attract trade from West beyond the borough.

Sources: Stakeholder consultations

MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS 43

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

44 MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

ENABLERS TO MAKE BETTER INFORMED DECISIONS There are a number of studies ABC could consider to better inform its long-term choices.

COMMUTING PATTERNS

COMMUNITY SENTIMENT

BUDGET ANALYSIS

Hypothesis

• ABC is not yet a meaningful region, each component more integrated with other councils than they are with the rest of ABC as a result of local government reform in 2015

• Local residents have a sense of belonging and geographic identity in their local areas • As a newer council area, further work may be needed to build community cohesion across the borough

• Cost-benefit analyses generally lack location-specific data of past investments.

Key interdependencies

• Priorities within local development and what to emphasise with Dept Infrastructure (physical and digital) • Priorities within the Rural Development Programme and the Regional Development Strategy

• Priorities within local development and what to emphasise with Dept Infrastructure (physical and digital) • Initiatives incl. those within the voluntary sector aimed at poverty alleviation and inclusive growth

• Direct and indirect capex priorities selected for GrowthDeal funding • Success rate of applications for GrowthDeal funding and other funding sources.

Suggested next steps

• Up-to-date analysis of commuting and shopping patterns across the region in terms of destination, distance of travel, travel mode(s), time to destination • Identification of key transport gaps and bottlenecks to inform an integrated spatial strategy to take proactively to Dept Infrastructure • Future-proof your position for air mobility’s growth by the 2030s

• Survey ABC households around their • Compile pre- and post- amalgamation perception of the wider borough region analysis of returns on investment for • Test a ‘top-down’ short-list list of ABC previous Council and Department initiatives with residents spends, across roads, social services and • Also allow for residents’ own ‘bottom-up’ community development, arts, events and local priorities recreation, and tourism • Identify potential programmes, • Identify areas with higher return on initiatives and community partnerships investment for future prioritisation to foster community identity and ensure • Build in metrics by which to test future that their roll-out is associated with the investments borough • Consider ABC’s “brand” and what it wants to be known for within the region and internationally

MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ACTIONS 45

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

ABC IN CONTEXT

OVERVIEW OF KEY LONGER TERM THEMES LONG TERM ACTIONS 46 ABC IN CONTEXT

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

SUPPORTING EMPLOYMENT AND OUTPUT ABC’s relative focus is manufacturing, yet (pre-COVID-19) it lags the wider province in manufacturing productivity per worker Employment by sector as a % of total employees, 2017

Sources: NISRA; Notes: *’Other’ includes real estate, water supply & waste, finance, ICT, mining, utilities

5 5

Agri, Mining and Utilities

Accommodation

Public Admin’ & defence

Other

5

4 4

4

2 1

2 1

1 1 Real estate

6 4

Financial activities

6 4

Professional & scientific

6 6

Transport

7 6 Administration services

7 7 Construction

8 8

ABC

Information & Comm’s

NI exc. Belfast

15

Education

11

Manufacturing

Health & social work

Wholesale & Retail

16 18 15 16

Output per worker, £’000s, 2017

Note: Food is included in manufacturing.

Sources: UU Economic Policy Centre ‘Summer 2019 outlook’, | UUEPC ‘Understanding productivity in Northern Ireland’, September 2016 | Forfas ‘Making it in Ireland: Manufacturing in Ireland 2020; A New Economic Vision, Pivotal

NI exc. Belfast

519

Administration services

Accommodation

Other

Financial activities

Professional & scientific

Health & social work

Education

Information & Comm’s

Wholesale & Retail

Agri, Mining, Utilities

50 41 17 41 54 39 38 37 28 52 27 30 25 29 23 37 20 19 18 16 12 23 15

Transport

Construction

Manufacturing

Real estate

58 48 48 44 44

Public Admin’ & defence

417

ABC

Key considerations • Pivotal’s recent report on NI’s economic recovery suggests lower productivity across NI is driven by skill gaps and limited training provision of professional qualifications and in engineering / technology.

• Retail, health and manufacturing are the main sectors of employment in ABC, with manufacturing as the clear outlier relative to the NI (excl. Belfast) comparison.

• From an output per worker perspective, manufacturing productivity levels are dwarfed by real estate given lower number of employees in the latter sector, and it may be worth investigating this anomaly in more detail, albeit real estate’s total contribution is small.

• It is also worth noting that other sectors (incl. agriculture, construction, financial activities and real estate) experienced a higher annual growth in real GVA compared to manufacturing between 2014-2018.

• Annual growth for these sectors was also higher than growth in employment • e.g. annual real GVA growth in agriculture, mining, electricity and water supply (9%) coincided with a 5-11% drop in employment over the same period.

• Manufacturing in ABC therefore remains a disproportionately low skilled sector, traditionally reliant on low wage local and imported labour - lagging trends on Industry 4.0, which is not sustainable in the long term, nor compatible with our objective of using a core sector like manufacturing to increase the region’s wealth.

• Retail, as the dominant private sector employer, while not unique to ABC, still warrants immediate focus in job retention, employee retraining and SME digital support, particularly given it may take time to recover to pre-pandemic employment levels.

ABC IN CONTEXT 47

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

ABC AT WORK

Residents’ of ABC borough make up the largest population outside of Belfast, yet it has the fourth highest (pre-COVID-19) employment rate.

• Pre-COVID-19 employment rates were respectable in NI context, but lower than •

•

ABC’s overall ranking in borough populations would suggest.

Short term mass redundancies in engineering and advanced manufacturing are an immediate concern, but in the longer term as manufacturers make the required modernisations to remain competitive, unemployment will realistically become a greater challenge for ABC. Given the timescales involved, this has implication for children in high school education today, and the need for a shift towards vocational apprenticeships in the borough.

• Compared to other council areas, the proportion of ABC residents working in

•

the area is low - reflecting the poor road infrastructure between the Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon centres and the proximity of Portadown and Banbridge to the Dublin-Belfast rail and road corridors, respectively.

This can be a positive with higher Belfast and Dublin salaries being spent locally, but it also reflects the relative lack of higher skilled, higher paid jobs, with ABC salaries near the NI median.

Employment rate by area (% 2018)

Proportion of people in employment working in their council of residence (% 2011)

Average annual salaries by area (£’000s 2019)

90

90

80

80

30

70

70

60

60

50 40 30 20 10 0

50 40 30 20 10 0

25 20 15 10 5 0

Sources: Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon council website | Agenda NI | Belfast Telegraph | Irish News | Armagh I | NISRA | NI 2011 census, via UUEPC ‘Belfast City Council Future skills need’, January 2019

48 ABC IN CONTEXT

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

ABC IN CONTEXT 49

RECOVERY & FRAMEWORK

50 ABC IN CONTEXT

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE BOROUGH

The highest month-on-month increase in number of claimants in May 2020 was from ABC, likely driven by the impact of COVID-19 on retail and manufacturing sectors.

Growth forecasts by Local Authority in NI

Impact of unemployment, based on claimant count (May 2020)

(ranked by pre-COVID-19 growth)

1.6

-11.5

CC&G

1.5

-9.8

1.4

-9.6

NI

10.1 8.2 10.2 11.0

0.8

-11.1

L&C

11.5

1.1

-10.5

AND

10.2

1.4

-8.2

M&EA

7.9

1.4

-9.7

ABC

11.6

1.5

-10.9

NM&D

11.8

0.3

-15.8

% increase of claimants April May 2020

12.0

1.5

-7.7

DC&S F&O

8.5

1.6

-10.8

ANB

MU

1.7

-7.6

BCC

2020

2021

22.0

NM&D

21.4

MU

21.3

F&O

19.7

CC&G

16.0

M&EA

15.4

DC&S

15.3

L&C

12.6

ANB

11.2

AND

10.9

BCC

5.0

Key: 17.0

2019

ABC

Number of claimants as % of working age population

3.8 – 4.5

4.6 – 4.7

5.8 – 5.2

5.3 – 6.4

6.5 – 7.4

Sources: KPMG forecasts by local authority, based on UK wide figures and NUTS3 GVA estimates for Northern Ireland. NISRA Claimant Count Monthly Data, May 2020.

TITLE OF SECTION 51

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

Our approach to developing this framework is summarised below.

Objectives of this study Against the backdrop of the Covid-19 emergency, Armagh City, Banbridge, and Craigavon Borough Council (‘ABC’, ‘Council’) commissioned KPMG (‘we’, ‘our) to undertake a study on the economy of the ABC geographic area.

In particular, we were asked to set out: • Opportunities for economic leadership from the Council • Short term supporting actions in the context of Covid-19, in particular finance and funding opportunities for businesses; • Long term growth initiatives to advance productivity, local innovation, and inward investment.

Our approach Context

KEY INPUTS AND APPROACH

Council leadership, short term actions

• Consulted with senior ABC staff • Participated in ABC-hosted webinars with senior business leaders • Undertook one-on-one interviews with a select number of Executives from major employers based in the local area

Short term actions for other agencies

• Reviewed existing NI Executive and UK Government policies and activities • Consult with public sector and private sector entities • Identify actions being taken by other agencies within UK

Long term actions for the Council

• Assess internal opportunities for reform • Review baseline composition of economy and potential growth sectors • Identify best practice in economic reform on local levels

Long term actions for other agencies

• Review baseline composition of NI economy and ABC local area within that context • Analyse best practice in the development of clusters • on sub-regional levels.

52 ABC IN CONTEXT

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

ABC IN CONTEXT 53

RECOVERY & GROWTH FRAMEWORK

Glossary of terms ABC

Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon Borough Council

IoT

Internet of Things

ANB

Antrim and Newtownabbey Council

ISCF

Industry Strategy Challenge Fund

AND

Ards and North Down Borough Council

L&C

Lisburn and Castlereagh Castle

AV

Autonomous vehicles

LPS

Land Property Services

BBB

British Business Bank

M&EA

Mid and East Antrim Borough Council

BCC

Belfast City Council

MNC

Multinational corporations

BoE

Bank of England

MSW

Mid South West

CAA

Civil Aviation Authority

MU

Mid Ulster District Council

CC&G

Causeway Coast and Glens Borough Council

NC

North Caroline

CĂšRAM

SFI Research Centre for Medical Devices

NCC

National Composites Centre

DC&S

Derry City and Strabane District Council

NGA

Next generation access

ESI

European Structural and Investments Funds

NI

Northern Ireland

EU

European Union

NM&D

Newry, Mourne and Down District Council

EV

Electric vehicles

OEM

Original equipment manufacturer

F&O

Fermanagh and Omagh District Council

PE

Private equity

FDI

Foreign direct investment

PHA

Public Health Agency

FTC

Financial Transactions Capital

R&D

Research and development

GDP

Gross domestic product

REMEDI

Regenerative Medicine Institute

GNI

Gross national income

SME

Small and medium enterprise

GVA

Gross value added

SRC

Southern Regional College

HLS

Health and life sciences

UU

Ulster University

HMRC

HM Revenue and Customs

VC

Venture capital

54

w armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk f armaghbanbridgecraigavon t /abcb_council

55

p 0300 0300 900 e info@armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk W armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk fTL Find us on Facebook, Twitter and Linkedin All information in this framework is correct at the time of publication.