SOLUTION MANUAL FOR MACROEONOMICS 17TH EDITION BY JOHN D GWARTNEY

SOLUTION MANUAL FOR MACROEONOMICS 17TH EDITION

BY JOHN D GWARTNEY CONTENTS

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Part 6

Supplements ii Text Overview iii Content Correlation Chart iv The Economic Way of Thinking 1 The Economic Approach 1 2 Some Tools of the Economist 7 Markets and Government 3 Demand, Supply, and the Market Process 22 4 Demand and Supply: Applications and Extensions 39 5 Difficult Cases for the Market and the Role of Government 47 6 The Economics of Political Action 59 Core Macroeconomics 7 Taking the Nation's Economic Pulse 66 8 Economic Fluctuations, Unemployment, and Inflation 76 9 An Introduction to Basic Macroeconomic Markets 89 10 Dynamic Change, Economic Fluctuations, and the AD-AS Model 95 11 Fiscal Policy: The Keynesian View and Historical Development of Macroeconomics 101 12 Fiscal Policy, Incentives, and Secondary Effects 106 13 Money and the Banking System 111 14 Modern Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy 125 15 Macroeconomic Policy, Economic Stability, and the Federal Debt 130 16 Creating an Environment for Growth and Prosperity 136 17 The Economics of Development 142 International Economics 18 Gaining from International Trade 147 19 International Finance and the Foreign Exchange Market 155 Special Topics – (page numbers are different as they are based on core IM) 1 Government Spending and Taxation 259 2 The Economics of Social Security 263 3 The Stock Market: Its Function, Performance, and Potential as an Investment Opportunity 267 4 Keynes and Hayek: Contrasting Views on Sound Economics and the Role of Government 270 5 The 2020 COVID-19 Recession: Cause, Response, and Implications for the Future 272 6 The Great Recession of 2008–2009: Causes and Response 275 7 Lessons from the Great Depression 279

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SUPPLEMENTS A full set of supplements accompanies the text. They include the following: MindTap MindTap is a fully online, highly personalized learning experience built on Cengage Learning content. MindTap combines student learning tools--readings, multimedia, activities, and assessments--into a singular Learning Path that guides students through their course. Instructors personalize the experience by customizing authoritative Cengage Learning content and learning tools, including the ability to add their own content in the Learning Path via apps that integrate into the MindTap framework seamlessly with Learning Management Systems.

Interactive eBook In addition to interactive teaching and learning tools, Economic MindTap includes an interactive eBook. Students can take notes, highlight, search, and interact with embedded media specific to their book. Use it as a supplement to the printed text or as a substitute—with MindTap, the choice is up to your students.

Test Banks The test banks for the 17th edition were prepared by the author team with the assistance of Shannon Aucoin and other members of Cengage‘s excellent team of subject matter experts. The authors have worked hard to update and improve the test banks for this edition. Joe Calhoun of Florida State University was the primary author of the test bank for the last edition and the current version is reflective of this excellent work. The three test banks contain approximately 6,000 questions—multiple choice and short answer. Within each chapter, the questions are tied to the major heads and specific topics within the chapter. Instructors who want to motivate their students to study will find online practice quizzes on MindTap that can easily be incorporated into their quizzes and exams. The cloud-based test banks for this edition have been enhanced significantly.

Cognero contains all of the questions in the test bank so that you can create and customize tests in minutes. You can easily edit and import your own questions and graphics and edit and maneuver existing questions.

PowerPoint We believe our PowerPoint presentation, prepared by Joseph Connors of Florida Southern University, is the best you will find in the principles market. The presentation includes chapterby-chapter lecture notes with fully animated, hyperlinked slides of the textbook‘s exhibits. Its dynamic graphs and accompanying captions make it easy for instructors to present (and students to follow) sequential changes. The graphs are also used to highlight various relationships among economic variables. To facilitate classroom discussion and interaction, questions are strategically interspersed throughout the PowerPoint slides to help students develop the economic way of thinking. Instructions explaining how professors can easily add, delete, and modify slides in order to tailor the presentation to their liking are included. If instructors want to make the PowerPoint presentation available to students, they can place it on their website (or the site for their course).

TEXT OVERVIEW Each chapter starts with an outline of the text. Second, a list of Focus Questions, a Context section that covers the important points of each chapter, and a section with tips on how best to use the text and supplementary materials are included. Third, possible answers (or approaches) to many of the Critical Analysis questions that are not answered in Appendix B of the text are included. In some chapters, fun illustrations and games that have been successfully used to communicate economic concepts to students are provided.

CONTENT CORRELATION CHART Core

Part/Chapter Title

Macro

Micro

Part 1 1 2 Part 2 3 4 5 6 Part 3 7 8 9 10 11

The Economic Way of Thinking The Economic Approach Some Tools of the Economist Markets and Government Demand, Supply, and the Market Process Demand and Supply: Applications and Extensions Difficult Cases for the Market, and the Role of Government The Economics of Political Action Core Macroeconomics Taking the Nation‘s Economic Pulse Economic Fluctuations, Unemployment, and Inflation An Introduction to Basic Macroeconomic Markets Dynamic Change, Economic Fluctuations, and the AD-AS Model Fiscal Policy: The Keynesian View and the Historical Development of Macroeconomics Fiscal Policy, Incentives, and Secondary Effects Money and the Banking System Modern Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Macroeconomic Policy, Economic Stability, and the Federal Debt Creating an Environment for Growth and Prosperity The Economics of Development International Economics Gaining from International Trade International Finance and the Foreign Exchange Market Core Microeconomics Consumer Choice and Elasticity Costs and the Supply of Goods Price Takers and the Competitive Process Price-Searcher Markets with Low Entry Barriers Price-Searcher Markets with High Entry Barriers The Supply of and Demand for Productive Resources Earnings, Productivity, and the Job Market Investment, the Capital Market, and the Wealth of Nations Income Inequality and Poverty Applying the Basics: Special Topics in Economics Government Spending and Taxation The Economics of Social Security The Stock Market: Its Function, Performance, and Potential as an Investment Opportunity Keynes and Hayek: Contrasting Views on Sound Economics and the Role of Government The 2020 COVID-19 Recession: Cause, Response, and Implications for the Future The Great Recession of 2008-2009: Causes and Response Lessons from the Great Depression The Economics of Health Care Earnings Differences between Men and Women Do Labor Unions Increase the Wages of Workers?

The Question of Resource Exhaustion Difficult Environmental Cases and the Role of Government

Part 1 1 2 Part 2 3 4 5 6 Part 3 7 8 9 10 11

Part 1 1 2 Part 2 3 4 5 6

12 13 14 15 16 17 Part 4 18 19 Part 5 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Part 6 ST1 ST2 ST3 ST4 ST5 ST6 ST7 ST8 ST9 ST10 ST11 ST12

12 13 14 15 16 17 Part 4 18 19

Part 4 16

Part 5 ST1 ST2 ST3

Part 3 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Part 5 ST1 ST2 ST3

ST4

ST4

ST5 ST6 ST7

ST5 ST6 ST7 ST8 ST9 ST10 ST11 ST12

Chapter 1 The Economic Approach OUTLINE I. What Is Economics About?

A. Scarcity means having to make choices.

1. Scarcity and choice are the two essential ingredients of an economic topic.

2. Scarcity is present whenever there is less of a good or resource freely available than people would like. a. Scarce goods are called economic goods. b. Resources are the inputs that people use to produce goods and services and may include human, physical, and natural resources.

3. Scarcity forces us to choose among available alternatives.

B. Scarcity and poverty are not the same.

1. Scarcity is a factual concept in which limited resources cause our desires for goods and services to be lacking.

2. Poverty is more subjective in nature; different people have different ideas of what it means to be ―poor.‖ 3. We may someday eliminate poverty, but scarcity will always be with us.

C. Scarcity necessitates rationing.

1. Every society must have a method to ration the scarce resources among competing uses. a. Various factors can be used to ration (first-come, first-served). b. In a market setting, price is used to ration goods and resources. c. When price is used, the good or resource is allocated to those willing to give up ―other things‖ in order to obtain ownership rights.

D. The method of rationing influences the nature of competition.

1. Competition is a natural outgrowth of the need to ration scarce goods.

2. Changing the rationing method used will change the form of competition, but it will not eliminate competitive tactics.

II. The Economic Way of Thinking A. Eight guideposts to economic thinking 1. The use of scarce resources is costly, so decision-makers must make trade-offs. a. Someone must give up something if we are to have more scarce goods.

(1) The highest-valued alternative that must be sacrificed is the opportunity cost of the choice.

2. Individuals choose purposefully—they try to get the most from their limited resources. a. Economizing: gaining a specific benefit at the least possible cost.

3. Incentives matter—changes in incentives influence human choices in a predictable way. Both monetary and nonmonetary incentives matter. a. As personal benefits (costs) from choosing an option increase, other things constant, a person will be more (less) likely to choose that option.

4. Individuals make decisions at the margin. a. Decisions will be based on marginal costs and marginal benefits (utility).

5. Although information can help us make better choices, its acquisition is costly..

6. Beware of the secondary effects: Economic actions often generate indirect as well as direct effects.

7. The value of a good or service is subjective.

8. The test of a theory is its ability to predict.

III. Positive and Normative Economics A. Positive economics is the scientific study of ―what is‖ among economic relationships.

1. Positive economic statements can be proved either true or false. a. Ex: The inflation rate rises when the money supply is increased.

B. Normative economics are judgments about ―what ought to be‖ in economic matters.

1. Normative statements cannot be proved true or false. a. Ex: The inflation rate should be lower.

IV. Pitfalls to Avoid in Economic Thinking A. Violation of the ceteris paribus condition can lead one to draw the wrong conclusion.

1. Ceteris paribus is a Latin term meaning ―other things constant.‖ 2. Used when the effect of one change is being described, recognizing that if other things changed, they also could affect the result.

B. Good intentions do not guarantee desirable outcomes.

1. Policies formed with good intentions may have unintended adverse secondary effects.

C. Association is not causation.

1. Statistical association alone cannot establish causation.

D. The fallacy of composition: What‘s true for one might not be true for all.

1. The fallacy of composition is the erroneous view that what is true for the individual (or the part) will also be true for the group (or the whole).

2. Microeconomics focuses on narrowly defined units, while macroeconomics focuses on highly aggregated units. a. One must beware of the fallacy of composition when shifting from micro to macro units.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  What is scarcity? Why does scarcity necessitate rationing and cause competition?  What is the economic way of thinking? What is the basic postulate of economics, and why is it so important?  What is the difference between positive and normative economics?

CONTEXT The purpose of this chapter is to introduce the student to the economic way of thinking. Unless students understand the concept of scarcity, the importance of personal incentives, and subject their thinking to the scientific method, they will do poorly in economics.

Generally, teachers overestimate their students. While many of your students will easily grasp the basics of the economic way of thinking, others will need additional examples and illustrations before they understand the essentials. The concepts of scarcity, economizing behavior, and incentives are so important, they are worth an entire lecture. Use several illustrations to highlight the impact on human behavior of changes in personal benefits or costs.

Introductory students tend to associate economics with business decision making. We must illustrate to them that the basic principles of economics and personal incentives influence all of human decision making, including choices in the political and social spheres. You may also want to contrast the methodology of economics with that of other social sciences and the physical sciences. Discuss both the similarities and differences.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

Be sure to distinguish clearly between scarcity and poverty (and shortages, once supply and demand have been covered). Anything that we would like to have more of at no cost is scarce. Thus, almost everything from clean air to leisure time to the ingenuity necessary to make other resources useful is scarce. Poverty is defined as failure to attain some minimum level of income. Poverty can conceivably be eliminated, whereas scarcity persists since goods are scarce for both the rich and the poor. A shortage is present when purchasers would like to buy more than is available at the current price.

2.

Introducing the subject of incentives, one can readily emphasize the importance and generality of this basic principle of economics. When an activity is made more costly, people will be less likely to choose it. Similarly, when the benefits derived from an event increase, people will be more likely to undertake it. Numerous examples can illustrate this concept.

How does hot weather influence one‘s decision to do without air-conditioning (or a swimming pool)? How does rewarding class attendance with higher grades influence one‘s decision to go to class? How does the grading policy of the instructor influence a student‘s incentive to study?

3.

Discuss the meaning of ―the margin‖ with students. Use non-economic examples to help clarify the idea. For example, ask students how an additional outstanding running back will influence the quality of a football team. (This is a marginal change.) If the running back position was previously a team weakness, the new player may make a substantial difference.

On the other hand, if the team was already strong at this position, the new player may exert little influence on the overall performance of the team. Indicate clearly the difference between (a) the overall performance of the team (a total concept) and (b) the change that results from the addition of the new player (a marginal concept).

4.

A good way of illustrating the search for information is to ask students how long they would search for a $50 bill. If your time had an opportunity cost of $10, you would look as long as you thought the probability of finding the bill in the next hour was at least 1/5. (The answer is not five hours in this case, because time already spent searching is then a sunk cost. A person could look well more or less than five hours.)

5.

Give examples of actions that have secondary effects. What are the secondary effects of overeating? Lack of adequate sleep? Restricting trade with Japan? Fixing the price of wheat at $6 per bushel?

6.

Emphasize both the theory and empirical parts of economics. Many professional economists are engaged in the continual testing of various aspects of economic theory. Discuss how economic theory is tested. Indicate real-world events that have convinced economists to modify their theories. Two examples of the latter are: a. the impact of the Great Depression on the theory that wage and price flexibility quickly restores full employment. b. the economic events of the 1970s on the theory that moderate inflation enables us to permanently attain low levels of unemployment.

7.

Discuss the distinctions between positive and normative economics. Point out that positive economic statements are testable, whereas normative statements are not. Give several illustrations of both positive and normative economic statements. The following are examples of positive economic statements: a. ―If the price of wheat rose, buyers would purchase less of it.‖ b. ―Nations that import substantial amounts of crude oil will experience inflation when crude oil prices rise.‖ (Although this may or may not be true, it is nonetheless a positive statement.) c. ―An increase in government borrowing will cause interest rates to rise.‖ The following are examples of normative statements: a. ―The price of wheat is too high.‖ b. ―The United States should impose price controls on domestic oil producers if the price of foreign oil rises.‖ c. ―It is wrong for lenders to charge higher interest rates to poor people than they charge the low-credit-risk customers.‖

8.

It is important to emphasize that association is not the same thing as causation. Discuss the following points with regard to this point. a. Skirt lengths tend to rise during prosperous times (1920s and 1960s, for example) and fall during bad times (1930s). Therefore, prosperity is caused by short skirts, whereas hard times result from low hemlines. b. High crude oil prices caused the inflation experienced by the United States during the 1970s. c. The post-World War II baby boom caused the prosperity of the period from 1946 to 1965. d. War causes inflation.

9.

Provide examples that illustrate the fallacy of composition, such as the following statements: a. ―Total output remains virtually unchanged whether I work or not; thus output is largely unaffected by whether or not people work.‖ b. ―I am no more likely to have an accident by driving ten miles over the speed limit than by obeying the limit. Thus, even if everyone drove 10 miles over the speed limit, the number of automobile accidents would not change.‖ c. ―Aliyah, a Kansas wheat farmer, doubled her income this year when she doubled her production of wheat. If all wheat farmers doubled their production of wheat, they could double their annual income.‖

10. The Critical Analysis questions at the end of each chapter are very useful in getting students to think more clearly about issues and events in the real world. Frequently, they can be used to also stimulate classroom discussion. Our experience suggests that only by using the economic way of thinking can most students really learn it.

11. A bird-watching analogy can help students see the usefulness of the economic way of thinking. Just as training and experience direct birdwatchers ―where to look‖ to spot various birds, the economic way of thinking directs students to look at decision makers‘ incentives to ―see‖ the predictable consequences of actions and policies. This is why those trained in economics can often find predictable policy consequences that others are unable to grasp very easily.

12. Another analogy that can help students see the power of the economic way of thinking is the framing of a building. Just as buildings will not be structurally sound if the framing is not done correctly, economic analyses will be faulty unless it is built on the framework of the set of incentives faced by the relevant decision makers. This is why economists spend so much effort trying to properly specify the incentives facing the actors involved, because predictions that are inconsistent with actors‘ incentives are likely to be incorrect.

13. In talking about choices and costs, one helpful illustration is to show that sometimes it is cheaper to make some mistakes than to be right all of the time. This is true whenever the costs associated with being wrong a certain fraction of the time are expected to be low compared to the costs of avoiding such mistakes (although these expectations themselves may prove incorrect). Examples run the gamut from dating (―you‘ve got to kiss a lot of frogs before you find your prince‖), to exams (you don‘t generally want to incur the costs to get every problem on an exam correct because you can miss some and still get an A), to buying ―off brands‖ when shopping (where you trade off lower prices for greater risks of unsatisfactory product performance).

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 2. Production of scarce goods always involves a cost; there are no free lunches. When the government provides goods without charge to consumers, other citizens (taxpayers) will bear the cost of their provision. Thus, provision by the government affects how the costs will be covered, not whether they are incurred.

6. Self-interest implies neither selfishness nor greed. Neither does it imply that people are only interested in their own welfare. Self-interest and selfishness do not have the same meaning.

Webster defines self-interest as ―concern for one‘s own well-being.‖ There is no implication that a self-interested person is either desirous of the possessions of others or seeking to gain at the expense of others. In contrast, Webster defines selfishness and greed as ―pursuit of one‘s own welfare without regard for the welfare of others.‖ A selfish person willingly pursues gain at the expense of others.

11. Statements (a) and (c) are normative and statements (b) and (d) are positive.

Chapter 2 Some Tools of the Economist OUTLINE I. What Shall We Give Up? A. Opportunity cost 1. The highest-valued activity sacrificed in making a choice 2. Subjective and vary across individuals B. Opportunity cost and the real world a. Monetary cost: tuition, books b. Non-monetary cost: forgone earnings 1. If the opportunity cost of college rises (e.g. tuition rises), then one will be less likely to attend college.

II. Trade Creates Value A. Voluntary exchange 1. When individuals engage in voluntary exchange, both parties are made better off.

2. By channeling goods and resources to those who value them most, trade creates value and increases the wealth created by society‘s resources.

B. Transactions costs—A barrier to trade 1. Transactions costs: the time, effort, and other resources needed to search out, negotiate, and consummate an exchange a. Transactions costs reduce our ability to produce gains from potential trades.

C. The middleman as a cost reducer 1. Middleman: a person who buys and sells, or who arranges trades a. A middleman reduces transactions costs. b. The Internet lowered transactions costs.

III. The Importance of Property Rights A. Private property rights 1. Property rights: the right to use, control, and obtain benefits from a good or service

2. Several features of private property rights a. They provide the right to exclusive use. b. They provide legal protection against invaders. c. They provide the right to transfer to another.

B. Private property rights incentives 1. Private owners can gain by employing their resources in ways that are beneficial to others, and they bear the opportunity cost of ignoring the wishes of others 2. Private owners have a strong incentive to care for and properly manage what they own.

3. Private owners have an incentive to conserve for the future—particularly if the property is expected to increase in value.

4. Private owners have an incentive to lower the chance that their property will cause damage to the property of others. a. Private ownership links responsibility with the right of control.

C. Private ownership and markets 1. When private property rights are protected and enforced, permission of the owner is required for use of a resource. a. If you want to use a good or resource, you must either buy or lease it from the owner. b. Individuals and firms are faced with the cost of using scarce resources.

2. Market prices provide a strong incentive for private owners to consider the desires of others and to use and develop resources that are highly valued by others.

IV. Production Possibilities Curve A. Shifting the production possibilities curve outward 1. An increase in the economy‘s resource base would expand our ability to produce goods and services.

2. Advancements in technology can expand the economy‘s production possibilities.

3. An improvement in the rules under which the economy functions can also increase output.

4. By working harder and giving up current leisure, we could increase our production of goods and services.

B. Production possibilities and economic growth 1. Economic growth is simply an outward shift in the curve through time. The more rapidly the curve shifts outward, the more rapid is economic growth.

V. Trade, Output, and Living Standards A. Division of labor 1. Division of labor: breaks down the production of a commodity into a series of specific tasks, each performed by a different worker.

2. Division of labor increases output for three reasons: a. Specialization permits individuals to take advantage of their existing skills. b. Specialized workers become more skilled with time. c. Permits adoption of mass-production technology.

B. Gains from specialization and division of labor 1. Law of comparative advantage: individuals, firms, regions, or nations can gain by specializing in the production of goods they produce cheaply (at low opportunity cost) and exchanging them for goods they cannot produce cheaply (at high opportunity cost).

C. Gains from mass production methods 1. Makes it feasible for the firms to adopt more efficient, large-scale production processes.

D. Gains from innovation 1. Trade makes it possible to realize gains from the discovery and dissemination of innovative products and production processes. Economic growth involves brain power, innovation, and the application of technology VI. Human Ingenuity Entrepreneurship, and the Creation of Wealth A. Economic pie 1. Economic goods are the result of human ingenuity and action; thus the size of the economic pie is variable. a. At any point in time, our ability to produce goods and services is constrained by the availability of resources, technology, institutions, and human effort. b. With the passage of time, however, output can be expanded through investment and the discovery of better ways of doing things.

VII. Economic Organization A. Methods of economic organization 1. Market organization: A method or organization that allows unregulated prices and the decentralized decisions of private property owners to resolve the basic economic problems. a. Sometimes market organization is called capitalism.

2. Political Organization: Collective decision-making is the method of organization that relies on public-sector decision-making to resolve basic issues. a. An economic system in which the government owns the income-producing assets and directly determines what goods they produce is called socialism. b. In a democratic process, decision-makers have to consider how their actions will influence their election prospects. Otherwise, their tenure will be short.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  What is opportunity cost? Why do economists place so much emphasis on it?  How does private ownership affect the use of resources? Will private owners pay any attention to the desires of others?  What does a production possibilities curve demonstrate?  What are the sources of gains from trade? How does trade influence our modern living standards?  What are the two major methods of economic organization? How do they differ?

CONTEXT In this chapter, we introduce the student to some basic economic tools—opportunity cost, the production possibilities curve, the law of comparative advantage, property rights, and the theory of exchange. The basic description of these concepts, without applications, are often boring to the student. Accordingly, it is vitally important that, as instructors, we present interesting and creative examples to help the student visualize and retain these concepts. Two alternative institutional arrangements—market and government planning—are available to deal with economic issues. In this chapter, basic tools are introduced and the stage is set for the following three chapters.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

Clearly, opportunity cost is the most vital and widely applicable concept in economics. From the beginning, students should be taught to think of ―costs‖ as ―the highest-valued alternative given up when a choice is made.‖ Use of examples with which students can readily identify will help to reinforce the concept. What does the student give up when he studies economics for an hour? When she works 10 hours per week? When he owns a car and drives 50 miles a week? In each case the answer is the highest-valued alternative that could have been chosen (consumed) had the choice not been made. Assignment of Critical Analysis question 3 will help the student understand this important concept.

2.

The fact that trade creates value, the role of transactions costs, and the middleman‘s reduction of transactions costs are introduced. Later in the chapter, the myth that trade is a zero sum game is dispelled. Students might gain from a discussion of why it might be considered ―socially irresponsible‖ to sell a used car too cheaply, rather than waiting until a buyer comes along who puts a higher value on the car and is willing to pay more. Of course, the resale market is a potential antidote to the problem.

3.

The section on property rights is important. Students need to understand how privately held rights hold owners accountable, in an opportunity cost sense, for opportunities missed, and for potential options turned down. Additional examples of how local businesses or landowners might lose by overlooking new ways to meet consumer desires will help drive this point home. Discussion of Critical Analysis questions 8 and 9 will help students better understand the economic function of private property.

4.

The concept of production possibilities provides the foundation for the constraints on aggregate supply that will be discussed later. Resources can be used to produce alternative commodities. However, when resources are being utilized efficiently, production of more of one good will necessitate less of something else being produced. There are no free lunches when resources are utilized efficiently. Be careful not to give students the impression that an economy confronts either an automatic or an immovable production possibilities curve.

Institutional arrangements, work effort, the past investment rate, and economic efficiency are important determinants of an economy‘s production possibilities.

5.

The law of comparative advantage is introduced here since it ties in nicely with both opportunity cost and attainment of maximum output from one‘s resource base. The concept is general and applies to specialization and trade between individuals, regions, and nations. It explains why specialization and trade can (and do) increase wealth. In our judgment, it is a mistake to relegate it to a chapter on international trade.

6.

The myth dispelled in this chapter is the dangerous and increasingly popular misconception that when one person gains from a transaction, another must lose. The myth can be used as a focus for a lively class discussion on exchange and economic nonsense.

7.

It is difficult to overemphasize the importance of incentives and the broadness of this basic principle of economics. Critical Analysis question 14 should be an interesting starting point for a classroom discussion on this topic.

8.

The conclusion of Chapter 2 would be an excellent time to give a short quiz. Ample questions, designed to test both understanding and application of the basic tools presented in these introductory chapters, can be found in the Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Test Banks.

9.

Teachers are always looking for new examples illustrating the gains from specialization and trade. I have used one involving a ―mythical‖ couple named Natalia and Roberto to supplement the text presentation. Each must chop one cord of wood and decorate one room each day. Nancy can do either in one hour; Ronnie can chop a cord of wood in two hours and decorate a room in 1-1/2 hours. Starting from this basic data, the normal conclusions can be drawn about absolute advantage and comparative advantage, how comparative advantage is just another term for lower opportunity costs, gains from trade, and the limitations imposed by transactions costs (how long they haggle about the terms of trade must be weighed against the time savings from specialization).

10. Since this chapter is the main one dealing with the concept of opportunity cost, it needs to be emphasized that costs are attached to choices, not goods. One effective way to do this in class is to ask ―What‘s the cost of a car?‖ and then lead the students to see that their answers do not make sense without a verb describing what action involving a car is being contemplated. One can speak of the cost of verbing a car (buying, owning, driving, insuring, borrowing, selling, etc.), but not sensibly of the cost of a car.

11. A way to integrate student understanding of how value is created and the crucial role of entrepreneurship in the process is to show students that all forms of creating value involve one or more of the following: resources are being moved from less- to more-valuable forms (what we typically think of as production does not create atoms; it simply rearranges them), from less- to more-valuable locations (the value created by transportation), from less- to more-valuable time periods (the value created through speculation), or from lower valuing to higher valuing uses and/or users (the value created through exchange). In each case, there is large dose of entrepreneurship in trying to discover higher-valued forms, locations, times, and higher-valuing users than others have discovered.

12. There are many illustrations that can be used to supplement the text‘s discussion on the importance of property rights under differing incentive structures that are faced by different parties. Examples include why your athletic team‘s coach wants you in better shape than you do, why your mother wants you to get better grades than you do, why draftees and jurors tend to be used inefficiently, and why damage deposits arise as a way to make renters act more like they were owners.

13. Activities 1 to 5 described in the next section will help reinforce the material in Chapter 2.

14. The ―Applications in Economics‖ feature on endangered species is the first of several in the book, designed to show that economics can be fruitfully applied to contemporary problems in the real world—in this case, how private property rights can help solve problem of protecting endangered species.

15. This chapter includes three ―Keys to Economic Prosperity‖ which highlight the main sources of economic prosperity (Private Ownership, Gains from Trade, Human Ingenuity). In all, 12 of the most important factors that underlie modern economic prosperity are included at appropriate places throughout the text. These ―keys to prosperity‖ are also listed in the front cover end papers.

16. The addendum to the chapter gives a detailed numerical example of comparative advantage, specialization, and the gains from trade. Going over a similar example in class helps reinforce the concepts of comparative advantage and gains from trade with students.

ACTIVITIES 1. Getting Dressed in the Global Economy Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class assignment Specialization, interdependence, self-interest, consumer choice, international linkages Chapter 1: The Economic Approach Chapter 2: Some Tools of the Economist none 20 minutes works in any size class

Purpose The advantages of specialization and division of labor are very clear in this example. The worldwide links of the modern economy are also illustrated. We depend on thousands of people we don‘t know, won‘t see, and don‘t think of, in order to get dressed in the morning. Self-interest follows naturally from interdependence. Wages, profits, and rents give people the incentive to perform these varied tasks. We depend on them to clothe us, and they depend on our purchases for their income.

Instructions Ask the class to answer the following questions. Give them time to write an answer to a question, then discuss their answers before moving to the next question. Question 1 can be answered with a brief phrase. Question 2 is the core of the assignment and takes several minutes. Ask them to list as many categories of workers as possible. (Offering a dollar to the first student to list 20 categories adds a competitive element.) Question 3 introduces demand concepts; most of the determinants of demand can be introduced during its discussion. For question 4, ask the class to look at the country-of-origin tags sewn in their garments.

1. Where did your clothes come from?

2. Who worked to produce your clothes?

3. What things do you consider when buying a garment?

4. Where were your clothes produced (what countries)?

Common answers and points for discussion 1. Where did your clothes come from?

There are many possible ways to answer, but a majority of students will say ―the mall,‖ ―Target,‖ or another retail outlet. Some may say ―a factory,‖ ―a sweatshop,‖ or ―a foreign country.‖ Mention the importance of markets here (this can be emphasized by asking ―Is anyone wearing something made by a friend or relative?‖). Discuss distribution versus production.

2. Who worked to produce your clothes?

There is no end to the possible answers; garment and textile workers are obvious, but most students will also list raw materials, transportation, management, design, or machinery.

Some think more broadly, mentioning inventors, road crews, bankers, oil refiners, engineers, and accountants.

Three important points are specialization, interdependence, and self-interest.

3. What things do you consider when buying a garment?

Most answers focus on preferences (fit, style, quality, color). Price is cited less frequently.

Ask about the importance of price until someone volunteers that income is important and the prices of substitute goods are important. Expectations of price change (e.g. ―clearance sales‖) can also be discussed. Few students mention complementary goods and most reject the idea of choosing a sweater to match a particular outfit. More convincing sets of complements involve activities and garments: skiing and insulated overalls; surfing and wetsuits; aerobics and spandex.

4. Where were your clothes produced (what countries)?

A large number of countries will be represented, even in small classes. Students are usually surprised to find how many garments are domestically produced. Asia is always well represented. Latin American and European goods appear in smaller numbers. African products are conspicuously absent.

This pattern shows the limits of simple explanations such as ―cheap labor.‖ Briefly discuss the importance of comparative advantage, specialization, exchange rates, tariffs, and quotas.

2. Screwdrivers and Bloody Marys Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class demonstration graphing, opportunity cost, choice Chapter 2: Some Tools of the Economist none 10 minutes works in any size class

Purpose This activity leads students from a simple graphing exercise to the concepts of scarcity, opportunity cost, and choice.

Instructions Draw a graph with Bloody Marys on the horizontal axis and Screwdrivers on the vertical axis.

A Bloody Mary contains tomato juice and one shot of vodka. A Screwdriver contains orange juice and one shot of vodka. Assume we have plenty of orange juice and tomato juice, but only one small bottle of vodka, containing six shots.

How many Bloody Marys could we make if we only made Bloody Marys?

How many Screwdrivers could we make if we only made Screwdrivers?

Could we make six of both drinks? Why not?

On your graph, show all the possible combinations of Bloody Marys and Screwdrivers that could be made, given a small bottle of vodka.

Points for discussion The combinations will make a continuous line, since we could pour half drinks, or quarter drinks, or any fraction of either drink.

Several basic graphing techniques can be demonstrated: inverse relation, negative slope, linear relation, and so on.

The economic points are more interesting. We can produce any combination on or inside the line.

If we produce inside the line, say two Screwdrivers and two Bloody Marys, we are not fully using our resources. This is inefficient.

If we do use all of our scarce resources, increasing production of one drink requires sacrificing production of the other. This lost production is opportunity cost.

Scarcity, or limited resources, requires choice. Producing a Bloody Mary means we cannot use those resources to produce a Screwdriver. Opportunity costs exist whenever we make choices.

3. Realism and Models: An Analogy Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class demonstration models Chapter 2: Some Tools of the Economist airplane kit, sheet of paper, whirl-a-gig wing toy (Note: the whirl-a-gig wing toy is a helicopter wing on a stick; it is often sold in museum gift shops, as well as toy stores.)

5 minutes works in any size class

Purpose Students frequently complain about the lack of realism in economic models. This demonstration uses airplane toys to illustrate that simplicity can be an asset in modeling.

Instructions and points for discussion Ask the class if a realistic model is better than an unrealistic model. Realism, of course, will be favored.

Show them the airplane model kit. Describe some of the details included in the model (rivets, canopy, struts, etc). Shake the box to rattle the large number of parts. This a fairly realistic model, although obviously not a real airplane. Its complexity adds realism, but at a cost; assembling the model is very time consuming. Drop the box on the floor. Tell the class, ―this model (even when completed) can‘t fly.‖ Take the sheet of paper and fold it into a paper airplane. Show the class this new model. Its virtues include simplicity and ease of assembly, but it is less realistic than the hobby shop airplane: no rivets, no seats, no windows. Then throw the paper airplane and explain, ―while less-detailed, this model can glide through the air.‖ Show them the whirl-a-gig wing toy. This model looks nothing like an airplane—no body, no tail—just a T-shaped piece of wood. Yet this model does something the other two models can‘t do: It actually generates lift. This toy displays the same aerodynamic principles as a real airplane wing; It truly flies. Twirl the stick between your palms and the whirl-a-gig toy will fly over your head.

Economic models are like the whirl-a-gig model. They are much less complex than the real world, but they can show how markets actually work.

4. A Short Trip with Many Contributors Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class assignment Specialization, interdependence, self-interest, international linkages, role of government Chapter 2: Some Tools of the Economist none 20 minutes works in any size class

Purpose This assignment shows the advantages of specialization and division of labor, and global links. It also introduces concepts of public and private financing.

Instructions Ask the class to answer the following questions. Give them time to write an answer to a question.

Then discuss their answers before moving to the next question.

1. Think of a recent trip you have taken. The distance traveled is unimportant, just choose a specific trip. Where did this trip start and finish?

2. Who produced the goods and services that made your trip possible? (List as many types of workers as possible.)

3. How were the different elements of your trip financed (e.g. the vehicle, the road network, or the airport)?

Common answers and points for discussion 2. Who produced the goods and services that made your trip possible?

The specific answers will vary depending on the mode of travel. The discussion below focuses on automobiles, but the ideas easily extend to airplanes, buses, trains, or boats.

Most students will include autoworkers, gas station attendants and, if they traveled through snow, road maintenance crews. These answers touch on three important elements—the vehicle, the fuel, and the transportation network—but the details are much more complex.

Any single element represents the work of a vast interlinking network of firms and individuals.

Look, for example, at a car produced in Michigan. This car is made up of thousands of components, including tires produced in Ohio. These tires are made of many materials including rubber, produced from petroleum. The petroleum, perhaps, was refined in New Jersey from oil pumped from the North Sea. Extracting this oil required a multitude of resources including warm clothing for the drill workers. One essential garment could be a warm parka filled with goose down. The down comes from geese raised in southern China.

This can be repeated in a million directions for any individual component—miners to extract ores, cooks to feed the miners, farmers to supply the cooks. Of course a crowd of others are

needed: accountants, designers, managers, inventors, engineers, janitors, secretaries, computer operators, communications technicians, chemists, and so on.

And this is only for the automobile itself. The roads have been constructed through a similar web of work, from the cement mixers to workers who produce the tiny glass beads that make highway paint reflect light. Similarly the fuel has passed through a chain of retailers, jobbers, refiners, shippers, and oil field workers.

One important point is the complexity and connectedness of the modern economy. Change in one part of the world can affect many other countries. A second point is people work to earn money. The Chinese goose farmer isn‘t motivated by concern for an automobile produced 7,000 miles away, or even for the individuals wearing the goose down parka. He works to better his own economic well-being. Wages, profits, and rents coordinate this complex network.

3. How were the different elements of your trip financed?

Public and private financing are both involved in transportation. The students (or their parents) typically pay for gasoline, automobiles, airfare, or bus tickets, often using some form of credit. Highways, roads, and airports are usually publicly financed through bonds and taxes.

This can be a good place to introduce credit markets, their regulation, and the role of government.

5. Lawless Transactions Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class demonstration the legal system and property rights Chapter 2: Some Tools of the Economist a volunteer, a paper sack 15 minutes works in any size class

Purpose This example shows the importance of the legal system as part of the institutional framework of a market system. It illustrates that even simple market transactions rely on an established body of law. Four required elements for a legal system can be demonstrated. A legal system needs to: 1) enforce contracts 2) define and protect property 3) prevent fraud 4) define and enforce liability.

Instructions Explain that the transactions in this example are only hypothetical; no money or goods will actually be exchanged.

Ask the volunteer how much he or she would be willing to pay for a backpack.

Agree to the offered price. This represents a typical market transaction, a good in exchange for a payment. While this transaction seems very straightforward, it won‘t work without a legal system.

Ask the volunteer, ―What if you paid me, but I didn‘t give you anything in exchange? Would you be happy?‖ Markets won‘t work if agreements are not honored. A legal system can eliminate this problem by enforcing contracts.

Now take a backpack from another student. Give it to the volunteer. In this case, both the buyer and seller are satisfied. The volunteer gets a backpack, the professor gets paid. Ask the class if anyone is unhappy.

The problem here is one of property rights. The professor has appropriated another student‘s backpack. This causes several problems for market transactions. If property is not protected, the volunteer has little incentive to buy the backpack since he or she could steal it and pay nothing.

Further, the volunteer has little incentive to pay for something that could immediately be stolen by someone else. The legal system needs to define and protect property rights to allow market transactions to work.

Return the backpack to its owner.

Now give the volunteer a paper sack. Tell the volunteer you have a legally binding contract and you expect full payment. The problem here is misrepresentation. Legal systems can prevent this problem by stopping fraudulent contracts.

Finally tell the volunteer that you have a new backpack made of a high-tech material developed in the chemistry department. It‘s very strong, very light, and very fashionable. You make the transaction and everyone is happy. A couple of weeks pass, and the volunteer is studying in the library when the backpack bursts into flames and explodes. The new backpack material was internally unstable. The entire library burns down. Who should pay?

Is the student responsible for the damages? Should the professor pay? Or should the chemistry department be responsible? Determining liability is another important role for the legal system.

Points for discussion The transitional economies of Eastern Europe provide daily examples of the problems of markets without established legal systems. Markets can be a very effective tool for allocation and distribution, but they only work within a social framework.

Definition of property rights may be trivial for personal property like a backpack, but more generally it‘s very important. Changes in property rules can cause big gains and losses.

Environmental regulations (particularly those regarding wetlands or endangered species) and intellectual property rights have been recent controversies over property definition.

Defining liability continues to be an important public issue.

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 1. False. Jones must value the car more than $5,000 and Smith less than $5,000; otherwise, the exchange would not take place.

4.

The statement reflects the view that ―exchange is a zero sum game.‖ This view is false. No private business can force customers to buy. Consumers purchase various goods and services from businesses because they gain by doing so. If they did not gain, they would not continue to purchase items from a business. Similarly, the business firms also gain from their production and sale activities. Mutual gain provides the foundation for voluntary exchange, including that between business firms and their customers.

5.

The major function of the middleman is to increase the value of resources by reducing transaction costs and thereby facilitating the movement of goods and services into highervalued uses. The people would be worse off without middlemen since transaction costs would be higher and less trade would occur.

11. If consumer demand for beef fell, the profitability of cattle herding would fall as well. Many cattle farmers would let their cattle herds dwindle and quit keeping cattle altogether. The result would be a smaller population of cattle, not a larger one. Because cattle are privately owned, an increase in their value in human consumption results in more cattle being kept, whereas a decrease would result in fewer cattle. To ―save the cows,‖ you should eat more beef!

Chapter 3 Demand, Supply, and the Market Process OUTLINE I. Consumer Choice and the Law of Demand A. Law of demand 1. Law of Demand: There is an inverse relationship between the price of a good and the quantity consumers are willing to purchase. a. As price of a good rises, consumers buy less. b. The availability of substitutes—goods that do similar functions—explains this negative relationship.

B. The market demand schedule 1. The height of the demand curve at any quantity shows the maximum price that consumers are willing to pay for that additional unit.

C. Consumer surplus 1. Consumer Surplus: the area below the demand curve but above the actual price paid. a. Consumer surplus is the difference between the amount consumers are willing to pay and the amount that they have to pay for a good.

2. Lower market prices will increase consumer surplus.

D. Responsiveness of quantity demanded to price changes: Elastic and inelastic demand curves 1. Elastic demand: quantity demanded is sensitive to small price changes. a. Easy to substitute away from good.

2. Inelastic demand: quantity demanded is not sensitive to price changes. b. Difficult to substitute away from good.

II. Changes in Demand Versus Changes in Quantity Demanded A. Changes in demand and quantity demanded 1. Change in demand: shift in entire demand curve 2. Change in quantity demanded: movement along the same demand curve in response to a price change B. Demand curve shifters 1. Changes in consumer income 2. Changes in the number of consumers in the market 3. Changes in the price or availability of a related good 4. Changes in expectations 5. Demographic changes 6. Changes in consumer tastes and preferences III. Producer Choice and the Law of Supply A. Producers 1. Opportunity cost of production: the sum of the producer‘s cost of employing each resource required to produce the good.

2. Firms will not stay in business for long unless they are able to cover the cost of all resources employed, including the opportunity cost of those owned by the firm.

B. Role of profits and losses 1. Profit occurs when revenues are greater than cost.

2. Firms supplying goods for which consumers are willing to pay more than the opportunity cost of resources used will make a profit.

3. Firms making a profit will expand and those with a loss will contract.

C. Law of supply 1. There is a positive relationship between the price of a product and the amount of it that will be supplied. a. As the price of a product rises, producers will be willing to supply more.

D. Market supply schedule 1. The height of the supply curve shows two points about the cost of production. a. The minimum price necessary to induce producers to supply that additional unit. b. The opportunity cost of producing the additional unit of the good.

E. Producer surplus 1. Producer surplus is the area above the supply curve but below the actual sales price.

a. Producer surplus is the difference between the minimum amount required to induce producers to produce a good and the amount they actually receive.

F. Responsiveness of quantity supplied to price changes: Elastic and inelastic supply curves 1. In elastic supply, quantity supplied is sensitive to small price changes.

2. With inelastic supply, quantity supplied is not sensitive to price changes.

IV. Changes in Supply Versus Changes in Quantity Supplied A. Changes in supply and quantity supplied 1. Change in supply is a shift in entire supply curve.

2. Change in quantity supplied is a movement along the same supply curve in response to a price change.

B. Supply curve shifters 1. Changes in resource prices 2. Changes in technology 3. Elements of nature and political disruptions 4. Changes in taxes V. How Market Prices Are Determined: Supply and Demand Interact A. Prices bring the conflicting forces of supply and demand into balance.

1. There is an automatic tendency for market prices to move toward the equilibrium price, at which the quantity demanded equals the quantity supplied.

B. Market equilibrium 1. The market price of a good will tend to change in a direction that will bring the quantity of a good consumers want to buy into balance with the quantity producers want to sell.

C. Efficiency and market equilibrium 1. Economic efficiency is a situation in which all of the potential gains from trade have been realized.

2. The point of market equilibrium is also the point where the combined area showing consumer and producer surplus is the greatest.

VI. How Markets Respond to Changes in Demand and Supply A. Effects of a change in demand 1. If demand decreases, the equilibrium price and quantity will fall.

2. If demand increases, the equilibrium price and quantity will rise.

B. Effects of a change in supply 1. If supply decreases, the equilibrium price will rise and the equilibrium quantity will fall.

2. If supply increases, the equilibrium price will fall and the equilibrium quantity will rise.

VII. Entrepreneurship, Profit, and the Dynamics of Market Competition A. Entrepreneurs work to discover and leverage market opportunities and form a powerful source of economic progress.

VIII. Invisible Hand Principle A. Invisible hand is the tendency of market prices to direct individuals pursuing their own interest into productive activities that also promote the economic well-being of society.

B. Prices and market order 1. Market prices communicate information: Product prices communicate up-to-date information about consumers‘ valuation of additional units of each commodity. a. Without the information provided by market price, it would be impossible for decision-makers to determine how intensely a good was desired relative to its opportunity cost.

2. Market prices coordinate the actions of market participants. a. Price changes bring the decisions of buyers and sellers into harmony. b. Price changes create profits and losses, which change production levels.

3. Market prices motivate economic players.

C. Competition and property rights 1. The efficiency of market organization is dependent upon: a. The presence of competitive markets. b. Well-defined and enforced private property rights.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  What are the laws of demand and supply?  How do consumers decide whether to purchase a good? How do producers decide whether to supply it?  What must a firm do in order to make a profit? What role do profits and losses play in an economy?  How is the market price of a good determined?  What must an entrepreneur do in order to be successful? Why are the actions of entrepreneurs important?  What is the ―invisible hand‖ principle?

CONTEXT In this chapter, we illustrate how markets work and why pricing signals are so important. Basic supply and demand analysis is developed. However, the text places greater emphasis than most textbooks on (a) the market as a process and (b) the period of time needed for purchasers and suppliers to respond fully to changes in market prices. In our judgment, this adds realism to the material and helps to convince the student that market prices really do matter. It also lays the groundwork for future discussions on (a) the search theory of unemployment, (b) uncertainty as to whether an increase in demand is temporary or permanent, and (c) adjustment of secondary markets to economic changes. One cannot fully understand today‘s macroeconomic problems without understanding these microeconomic concepts.

This chapter also discusses the role played by market prices as they communicate information, coordinate the actions of economic decision-makers, and motivate participants to undertake economic activity. The chapter also introduces the role that entrepreneurs play in fulfilling market

opportunities and how they can act for economic progress. This discussion supplements the analysis of how market prices answer the three basic economic questions. Unless students understand (a) what market prices are doing and (b) why prices influence the actions of individuals, they will never be able to grasp the concept of the ―invisible hand.‖

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

Our experience suggests that failure to distinguish between changes in demand and changes in quantity demanded is among the most common mistakes in economics. Use Exhibit 4 to clarify this distinction. List the major factors (changes in income, prices of related goods, consumer preferences, number of buyers, and expected future prices) that cause demand to change (the curve to shift). Point out that a change in the price of a product causes a change in quantity demanded, but not a change in demand. Critical Analysis questions 1and 2 should help students see the distinction more clearly.

2.

Consumer choices underlie the demand curve. Changes in factors (other than product price) that influence consumer decisions will cause a change in demand. The choices of producers underlie the supply curve. Therefore, changes in such things as input prices, production technology, and taxes will cause the supply curve to shift since these factors influence the producer‘s costs.

3.

Changes in one market often have feedback effects that alter the market conditions for productive resources and related products. Students should begin to see how markets are interrelated.

4.

Exhibit 10 summarizes the concepts of supply, demand, and market equilibrium. Most instructors will want to go over this exhibit (or one similar to it) in class.

5.

The impact of Alfred Marshall on modern economics has been enormous. The outstanding economist feature profiles his contribution to the development of economics.

6.

Economists often neglect one of the most important functions of market prices—the ability to summarize and communicate information. The section in Chapter 3 on the invisible hand principle adds perspective to the mechanical material on supply and demand. Market prices inform decision-makers, motivate individuals to action, and coordinate the behavior of economic participants who neither see nor are fully aware of each other. Economists from Adam Smith to Nobel laureate Friedrich van Hayek have emphasized the importance of these functions. When instructors gloss over these points, they fail to fulfill their responsibilities to students.

7.

The Critical Analysis questions provide material that will both stimulate classroom discussion and help students better understand the primary topics covered in this chapter.

8.

A marble in a perfectly rounded bowl provides an analogy that may help students understand the process of adjustment toward equilibrium and the role of comparative static equilibria. A marble placed at the exact bottom of the bowl with no momentum will tend to stay there because there is no force pulling it away; placed anywhere else, there will be a force pulling it back toward the bottom. In market systems, the force that replaces gravity is the frustration of transactors unable to trade at current prices. Frustrated buyers at below equilibrium prices

have incentives to offer sellers a better deal as a way to be able to trade, and similarly for sellers at above equilibrium prices. Just as with the marble in the bowl, however, adjustment is not instantaneous. There may be some overshooting, and predicting the actual dynamic movements over time is far more difficult than comparisons of static equilibria.

9.

A useful extension of the supermarket lines example for spontaneous coordination would be to see what would happen to traffic if the rules of the road were unpredictable (e.g., what if the ―real‖ speed limit is unknown, if laws changed between cities, etc.).

10. A good illustration of markets in action is the response of Canadians to tax differences on cigarettes in the United States and Canada. As a result of taxes, Canadian-blend cigarettes are often substantially cheaper in the United States than in Canada. Despite additional transportation and transaction costs, Canadians often purchase the cigarettes in the United States and smuggle them into Canada. Several colorful attempts have been documented, including smuggling by kayakers, cigarettes stuffed inside car doors, and even into turkeys.

11. Activities 1 through 5 in the next section provide suggestions about how to help your students gain a greater appreciation for the tools of supply and demand.

12. Remember that changes in the opportunity costs of owned resources (e.g., a farmer‘s own land) have the same analysis as changes in the explicit costs of resources hired in markets.

13. In applying supply and demand analysis, students can be shown that if either curve shifts, it will result in either a shortage or surplus at the current price, which is what sets the market adjustment process in motion.

ACTIVITIES 1. A Market Example Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class demonstration Individual demand, market demand, equilibrium price, allocation Chapter 3: Demand, Supply, and the Market Process a bag of Pepperidge Farm cookies (15 cookies), 5 volunteers 35 minutes works in large lectures or small classes with over 15 students`

Purpose This is an example of a real-world market, where real goods are exchanged for real money. It is a free market, so there will be no coercion, but participants should think carefully about their answers since actual trades will take place.

Instructions Ask for five volunteers to participate in a market, a market for Pepperidge Farm Milano cookies.

Read some of the package copy describing these ―distinctively delicious‖ cookies. Write each volunteer‘s name on the board.

Ask the volunteers how many cookies they would be willing to buy at various prices. Record these prices and quantities.

Give the volunteers the opportunity to revise their numbers if the figures don‘t accurately reflect their willingness to pay. Remind them that this isn‘t a hypothetical exercise, and they will have to pay real money.

At this point there will be five individual demand curves, which can be graphed if desired.

Add the individual quantities at each price to find the market demand at that price. This overall demand is used to find the market equilibrium. Sketch a graph of the market demand.

Supply, in this case, is fixed at the number of cookies in the bag. There are fifteen cookies. No more can be produced, and any leftovers will spoil. This gives a vertical supply curve in the very short run at Q = 15. Sketch the supply curve.

Try various prices until the individual quantities sum to 15. This will give the equilibrium price and quantity.

Distribute the cookies and collect money from each participant.

An example: How many of these cookies, if any, would you be willing to buy at a price of $10 per cookie?

How many cookies would you be willing to buy at a price of $0.01 per cookie?

How many cookies, if any, would you be willing to buy at a price of $0.50 per cookie?

How many cookies, if any, would you be willing to buy at a price of $0.25 per cookie?

Our volunteers give the responses below. The market quantity is the sum of the individual quantities at each price.

Price $10

Maria 0

Ricardo 0

Amy 0

Jay 0

Market Quantity 0

0.50

0

2

1

3

6

0.25

1

4

2

4

11

0.01

6

100

50

25

181

We look at the intersection of this supply curve with the market demand curve to find our equilibrium point. In this example, our equilibrium will occur at some price below 25¢ and above 1¢.

For Example: Price $0.20

Maria 2

Ricardo 5

Amy 3

Jay 5

Market Quantity 15

This is the equilibrium price. At this price, the market clears. Once the price is established, we allocate the goods based on individual demand, so Maria buys two cookies at 20¢ each, Ricardo buys five cookies, Amy three, and Jay five.

Points for discussion The demand curves display the typical inverse relation between price and quantity. Remark on any unusual patterns. These tell us about each individual‘s willingness to pay and reveal information about the marginal benefits of additional cookies to each consumer.

Market demand is aggregated from individual demand curves.

Notice the consumers do not get an equal number of cookies. This is typical of markets because tastes and incomes vary across individuals.

Also notice that the total cost to the consumers is equal to the total revenue to the firm, Price  Quantity.

2. Supply and Demand Article Type: Topics: Textbook: Class limitations:

Take-home assignment Shifts in supply or demand, changing equilibrium Chapter 3: Demand, Supply, and the Market Process works in any class

Purpose This assignment is an excellent discriminator. Students who have difficulty with it often need remedial help. Allowing students to correct errors and then resubmit the assignment can be worthwhile since it is fundamental to their understanding of how markets work.

Instructions Warn students to avoid advertisements since they contain little information. They should be wary of commodity and financial markets unless they have a good understanding of the particular market. Markets for ordinary goods and services are most easily analyzed.

Points for discussion Most changes will only shift one curve, either supply or demand, not both. Remind students that price changes will not cause either curve to shift. (But shifting either curve will change price.)

Equilibrium points are not fixed. They change when supply or demand changes. Prices will not necessarily return to their previous levels nor will quantities.

Remind the class of the fundamental relations: 1. Increases in demand cause price and quantity to increase.

2. Increases in supply cause price to decrease and quantity to increase.

3. Decreases in demand cause decreases in price and quantity.

4. Decreases in supply cause price increases and quantity decreases.

Name

Course Supply & Demand

Find a news article illustrating a change in price or quantity in some market.

Analyze the situation using economic reasoning.

Has there been an increase or decrease in demand? Factors that could shift the demand curve include changes in preferences, changes in income, changes in the price of substitutes or complements, and changes in the number of consumers in the market.

Has there been an increase or decrease in supply? Factors that could shift the supply curve include changes in costs of materials, wages, or other inputs, changes in technology, and changes in the number of firms in the market.

Draw a supply and demand graph to explain this change. Be sure to label your graph and clearly indicate which curve shifts.

Turn in a copy of the article along with your explanation.

Date of Article

Source

3. Campus Parking Type: In-class assignment Topics: Demand, supply, disequilibrium, shortage, rationing Textbook: Chapter 3: Demand, Supply, and the Market Process Materials Needed: a shortage of student parking on campus Time: 35 minutes Class limitations: works in large lectures or small classes, if there is a campus parking problem Purpose Nothing seems to generate more heated discussion than campus parking. If your school has a parking shortage, this assignment, which deals with the ideas of price rationing and resource allocation, hits close to students‘ hearts.

A. K. Sen‘s parable of the bamboo flute is a good introduction to this assignment: An artist makes a beautiful instrument that becomes famous throughout the country. A number of claimants arise, each of whom argues that they deserve the flute: the artist who created it, the most-talented musician, the poorest, most-needy citizen, and the hardest-working musician. Who deserves the flute? Students will have different opinions on who is most deserving, but many will accept a market solution—the person who is willing to pay the most (who has the highest marginal benefit, given the existing distribution of wealth and income). The allocation of campus parking spots makes a nice parallel.

Instruction Ask the class to answer the following questions. Give them time to write an answer to a question.

Then discuss their answers before moving to the next question.

Common answers and points for discussion 1 and 2. Write down three things that are true about the parking situation on campus. What two problems do you think are most important?

The parking problem has two components in the eyes of most students. Parking permits are too expensive, and there are too few spaces.

3. What policies could the administration take to resolve these problems?

Students have many policies to alleviate the situation. The most common suggestion is to ban parking for freshmen. Freshmen respond with lists of other groups who should be banned.

Another popular policy would be to open faculty lots to student parking. Parking fees should be lowered or better yet eliminated. Parking violations should have lower fines. More lots should be built. Shuttles, moving sidewalks, and monorails should be installed.

Students never suggest raising prices to reach a market solution.

4 and 5. Who needs parking the most? Who would pay the most for parking?

Asking about need and willingness to pay moves the discussion away from group prohibitions; freshmen may be just as needy and equally able to pay.

6. Use a supply and demand graph to analyze this problem.

Many students initially have difficulty graphing this problem. They want to illustrate that permit prices are too high, but then their graph won‘t show the shortage. Eventually, they can be convinced that parking, while expensive, is actually priced too low.

7. How would your policy proposals affect the market for parking?

Analysis of the various proposals in a supply and demand framework shows some popular policies, like free permits, would aggravate the parking shortage. Policies to restrict demand can reduce the shortage, although there will be inefficiencies in the resulting allocation.

Building more parking lots isn‘t a shift in the supply curve. New construction is an increase in quantity along the existing supply curve. The additional costs need to be covered by some means: higher parking fees, tuition increases, or taxpayer subsidies.

Name

Course Campus Parking

1. Write down three things that are true about the parking situation on campus.

2. What two problems do you think are most important?

3. What policies could the administration take to resolve these problems?

4. Who needs parking the most?

5. Who would pay the most for parking?

6. Use a supply and demand graph to analyze this problem.

7. How would your policy proposals affect the market for parking?

4. Cold Soda Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class demonstration Demand, substitutes and changing demand Chapter 3: Demand, Supply, and the Market Process a teaching assistant to tally quantities 15 minutes works in large classes

Purpose This activity demonstrates the demand curve‘s inverse relation between price and quantity.

Students answer a series of questions about their willingness to pay. A teaching assistant collects their answers and then sums their responses, while the instructor lectures on other material. Two demand curves are found from the class responses, one with, and one without a substitute good.

These are shared with the class.

Instructions Ask the students to answer the following questions. These are hypothetical questions; no exchange will actually take place.

1. ―Assume I have a cooler of ice-cold Pepsi-Cola. If I offered to sell you a Pepsi for $2.50 would you be willing to buy one? (Yes or no?)‖ 2. ―If I offered to sell you a Pepsi for $2.00 would you be willing to buy one? (Yes or no?)‖ 3. ―If I offered to sell you a Pepsi for $1.75 would you be willing to buy one? (Yes or no?)‖ 4. ―If I offered to sell you a Pepsi for $1.50 would you be willing to buy one? (Yes or no?)‖ 5. ―If I offered to sell you a Pepsi for $1.25 would you be willing to buy one? (Yes or no?)‖ 6. ―Now assume I have two coolers, one full of ice-cold Pepsi-Cola and one full of ice-cold Coca-Cola. I am going to repeat my offers to sell Pepsi, but now consider the availability of Coke. Assume Coke is available as an alternative, and the price of Coke is always $1.75.

You can buy either Pepsi, or Coke, or nothing.‖ 7. ―If I offered to sell you a Pepsi for $2.50 would you be willing to buy one? (Answer ‗Yes‘: if you are willing to buy Pepsi. Answer ‗no‘ if you would buy the Coke at $1.75 or if you would buy nothing.)‖ 8. ―If I offered to sell you a Pepsi for $2.00 would you be willing to buy one? (Answer ‗Yes‘: if you are willing to buy Pepsi. Answer ‗no‘ if you would buy the Coke at $1.75 or if you would buy nothing.)‖ 9. ―If I offered to sell you a Pepsi for $1.75 would you be willing to buy one? (Answer ‗Yes‘: if you are willing to buy Pepsi. Answer ‗no‘ if you would buy the Coke at $1.75 or if you would buy nothing.)‖

10. ―If I offered to sell you a Pepsi for $1.50 would you be willing to buy one? (Answer ‗Yes‘: if you are willing to buy Pepsi. Answer ‗no‘ if you would buy the Coke at $1.75 or if you would buy nothing.)‖ 11. ―If I offered to sell you a Pepsi for $1.25 would you be willing to buy one? (Answer ‗Yes‘: if you are willing to buy Pepsi. Answer ‗no‘ if you would buy the Coke at $1.75 or if you would buy nothing.)‖ Collect the student‘s responses and have your assistant add the number of ―yes‖ votes for each question.

Points for discussion Use the first five questions to draw a demand curve for Pepsi. More students will be willing to buy Pepsi as its price decreases.

Use questions 6–10 to draw a second demand curve for Pepsi. This demand curve shows the impact of lowering the price of a substitute good. (The price of Coke was essentially infinite for the first questions, and it has dropped to $1.75 for the second set of questions.) The demand for Pepsi will still be downward sloping, but fewer students will choose Pepsi at any given price. This illustrates the decrease in demand when a substitute‘s price decreases.

5. Value of a Time Machine Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class demonstration Consumer surplus Chapter 3: Demand, Supply, and the Market Process none 10 minutes works in any size class

Purpose Consumer surplus can be a hard concept for students because it‘s based on avoided expense rather than on money that is actually exchanged. This example puts a specific dollar value on consumer surplus.

Instructions Tell the class, ―a new technology has been developed that allows individuals to travel backward or forward in time. We want to identify the value this time machine provides to consumers. Let‘s assume the four consumers who most desire this product are in this class.‖ Choose four student names and use them in the following example. ―Scott is the consumer who most values this product. He wants to go back to the time of the dinosaurs. He is willing to pay $3000.‖ ―Carol is the consumer with the next highest willingness-to-pay. She would like to see 200 years in the future. She‘d pay $2500. ― ―Steve is the next highest bidder. He‘d like to relive this entire semester. He‘ll pay up to $800.‖ ―Jeanne is our fourth consumer. She‘d pay $200 to move the clock forward to the end of this class period.‖ On the board write: Scott $3,000 Carol $2,500 Steve $800 Jeanne $200 ―This represents the demand curve for the time machine. Consumer surplus is the difference between what consumers are willing to pay and the amount they actually have to pay. The market price will determine who uses the time machine and how much surplus they keep.‖ ―If the price of a time machine ride was $500, 3 rides would be sold—one to Scott, one to Carol, and one to Steve. Jeanne is not willing to pay $500, so she wouldn‘t time travel.‖

―We can calculate the consumer surplus of three time trips. Scott would pay $3,000 but only pays $500 leaving $2,500 of net benefits.‖ (Put these numbers on the board.) ―Carol has net benefits of $2,000. Steve has net benefits of $300. Adding up these net savings gives $4,800 in consumer surplus.‖ Points for discussion The consumer surplus depends on a good‘s selling price and the number of consumers who are willing to purchase the good at that price. The lower the price, the greater the consumer surplus.

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 15. Substitutes are goods that perform similar functions (pencils and pens). Complements are goods that are consumed jointly (butter and bread).

16. Business firms do have a strong incentive to serve the interest of consumers, but this is not what motivates them. Instead, they are motivated by self-interest and the pursuit of income, but they must provide consumers with a quality product if they are going to be successful.

Good intentions are not required for people to engage in actions that are helpful to others.

Chapter 4 Demand and Supply: Applications and Extensions OUTLINE I. The Link Between Resource and Product Markets A. The markets for resources and products are closely linked.

1. Changes in one will affect the other. a. An increase (decrease) in resource prices will reduce (increase) supply in the product market. b. An increase in product demand will increase the demand for resources used in production of the good.

II. The Economics of Price Controls A. The impact of price ceilings 1. A price ceiling is a legally established maximum price that sellers may charge. a. Example: rent control 2. The direct effect of a price ceiling below the equilibrium price is a shortage: quantity demanded exceeds quantity supplied.

3. Reduction in the quality of the good.

4. Inefficient use.

5. Lower future supply.

6 Non-price rationing will be of more importance.

B. Rent control: A closer look at a price ceiling 1. Shortages and black markets will develop.

2. The future supply of rental housing will decline.

3. The quality of rental housing will deteriorate.

4. Non-price methods of rationing will increase in importance.

5. Inefficient use of housing space will result.

C. The impact of price floors 1. A price floor is a legally established minimum price that buyers must pay. a. Example: minimum wage

2. The direct effect of a price ceiling below the equilibrium price is a surplus: quantity supplied exceeds quantity demanded.

D. Minimum wage: A closer look at a price floor 1. Direct effect a. Reduces employment of low-skilled labor 2. Indirect effects a. Reduction in non-wage component of compensation b. Less on-the-job training 3. A higher minimum wage does little to help the poor.

III. Black Markets and the Importance of the Legal Structure A. Black market: market that operates outside the legal system 1. Either sell illegal items or items at illegal prices or terms.

2. Black markets have a higher incidence of defective products, higher profit rates, and greater violence.

B. Legal system: provides secure property rights and unbiased enforcement of contracts enhances the operation of markets.

IV. The Impact of a Tax A. Tax incidence 1. The legal assignment of who pays a tax is called the statutory incidence. a. The actual burden of a tax (actual incidence) may differ substantially.

B. The deadweight loss caused by taxes 1. The loss of the gains from trade eliminated by the tax is called deadweight loss of taxation.

C. Actual versus statutory incidence 1. Economic analysis indicates that the actual burden of a tax—or more precisely, the split of the burden between buyers and sellers—does not depend on whether the tax is statutorily placed on the buyer or the seller.

D. Elasticity and the incidence of a tax 1. When demand is relatively inelastic, or supply is relatively elastic, buyers will bear the larger share of the tax burden.

E. Elasticity and the deadweight loss 1. The elasticities of supply and demand influence the size of the deadweight loss caused by the tax because they determine the total reduction in the quantity exchanged.

V. Tax Rates, Tax Revenues, and the Laffer Curve A. Average tax rate 1. Average tax rate equals tax liability divided by taxable income. a. Progressive tax is one in which the average tax rate rises with income. b. Proportional tax is one in which the average tax rate stays the same across income levels. c. Regressive tax is one in which the average tax rate falls with income.

B. Marginal tax rate

1. Marginal tax rate equals change in tax liability divided by change in taxable income.

C. Tax rate and tax base 1. Tax rate is the percentage rate at which an economic activity is taxed.

2. Tax base the level of the activity that is taxed. a. The tax base is inversely related to the rate at which the activity is taxed.

D. Laffer curve 1. Laffer curve illustrates the relationship between tax rates and tax revenues. a. Laffer curve shows that tax revenues are low for both low- and high-tax rates. b. The point of maximum tax revenue is not optimal because of high excess burden.

E. Laffer curve and tax changes in the 1980s 1. During the 1980s, the top marginal income tax rate fell from 70 percent to 33 percent.

2. Need to distinguish between changes in tax rates and changes in tax revenues. a. Between 1980 and 1990, real income tax revenue collected from the top 1 percent of earners rose a whopping 51.4 percent.

VI. The Impact of a Subsidy A. Elasticity and the benefit of government subsidy programs 1. The division of a benefit from a subsidy is determined by the relative elasticities of demand and supply rather than to whom the subsidy is actually paid.

B. Real-world subsidy programs 1. The federal government now operates over 2,000 separate subsidy programs. a. Some subsidy programs, such as Medicare and food stamps, provide payments to buyers. b. Others, such as the subsidies to the arts, public broadcasting, and sports stadiums, are directed toward suppliers.

2. There has been a substantial increase in federal and state subsidies to college students since 1990. a. Subsidies in the form of grants and loans to students will increase the demand for college education and thereby push up its price. b. The subsidies are a driving force underlying the soaring cost of a college education, and rising student loan debt.

CONTEXT In this chapter, we provide applications of supply and demand analysis in a variety of contexts.

The applications emphasize that trading can take place in many different forms. For example, a market can be legal or illegal, formal or informal. The first part of the chapter analyzes wage rates within a supply-and-demand framework. The chapter then discusses the impact of government intervention in several types of markets. First, this chapter investigates the effect of price ceilings such as rent control as well as price floors such as minimum wages. Second, the text explores black markets. Third, the chapter discusses the impact of a tax on a market. In particular, the distribution of the tax burden between buyers and sellers. Fourth, the chapter considers the impact

of taxes on the incentive to earn, as well as report, taxable income. Tax avoidance is introduced as a natural offspring of the relative price changes induced by taxation. Fifth, the chapter examines the impact of a subsidy on a market. It emphasizes that the distribution of the benefits from the subsidy is determined by the relative elasticities of supply and demand.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  How are the markets for products and resources related?  What happens when prices are set by law above or below the market equilibrium level?  How does a tax or subsidy affect a market? What determines the distribution of the tax burden (or subsidy benefit) between buyers and sellers?  What is the Laffer curve? What does it indicate about the relationship between tax rates and tax revenues?

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

An important point in the first application is the connection between markets. That is, changes in one market will lead to changes in other markets and alter the relative prices of many goods. It is worthwhile to emphasize this point.

2.

The rent control discussion of quality changes and the price of a product highlights the multidimensional nature of economic terms of trade. When monetary prices play a lesser role in exchange, non-price factors, such as quality adjustments, congestion, and discrimination, will play a larger role. Be sure to indicate that quality deterioration (holding money price constant) is an alternative means by which producers can increase the real price to the consumer.

3.

Attempts to repeal the laws of supply and demand are continually being made by legislative bodies. Current examples familiar to students will reinforce the analysis of the text. In each case, discussion of the shortage or surplus and quality adjustments that result from attempts to control prices will help students understand the secondary effects of price controls.

4.

Exhibit 4 illustrates that minimum wage legislation reduces the quantity of employment available to low-skill workers. As in the case of other price floors, the minimum wage elevates the importance of non-price methods of rationing. When legislation keeps wages of low-skill workers above the market equilibrium, low-skill workers will confront more unemployment (waiting in line for the minimum-wage jobs), more employment discrimination, and less opportunity for job training. Point out that these are simply examples of non-price factors that increase in importance when wages of low-skill workers are pushed above market equilibrium.

5.

Critical Analysis question 7 provides material that will stimulate classroom discussion of black markets.

6.

The concept of deadweight loss is both important and elusive. Be sure to emphasize that it reflects the loss of the gains from mutually beneficial economic activity that does not take place because taxation increases the personal cost of the activity.

7.

The analysis of the burden of a tax under differing price elasticities of demand and supply serves to illustrate the usefulness of the elasticity concept as well as to explain some of the key problems in tax policy.

8.

A good analogy to the tax incidence discussion in the text is the game of dodge ball. The government throws the balls (taxes) because they want to hit the players (raise revenue, which can only come from someone in society), and they want to throw balls where they will successfully hit people, that is, where the people cannot dodge very well (inelastic suppliers or demanders)—if people could dodge perfectly, there would be no point in throwing the balls. The fraction of the burden (incidence) borne by each of the two groups, suppliers and demanders, is determined by those who can most easily alter their behavior (the group with the more elastic behavioral response will be better able to dodge the tax, dumping a larger share of the burden on others).

9.

Since the Laffer curve is merely a reflection of the relative price effects of taxation, we introduce it in this chapter. Be sure to emphasize that relative price effects reduced the size of the tax base on both the upward-sloping and the backward-bending portion of the Laffer curve. The difference is that the impact of the higher tax rate on output dominates the revenue effect on the backward-bending portion. Unless you note otherwise, many students will believe that the point of maximum revenue on the Laffer curve (Exhibit 9, point B) is optimal. Actually this point implies that tax revenue is infinitely inelastic with respect to an increase in tax rates. Be sure to point out that the excess burden of taxation is exceedingly large as this point is approached.

10. In the discussion of the Laffer curve, be sure to distinguish between an individual‘s average tax rate and his or her marginal tax rate. Of course, the marginal tax rate is more relevant to the decision-making of taxpayers. One side effect of a high marginal tax rate is that taxdeductible purchases become cheap. Ask students whether they think that high-income persons should face high marginal tax rates. Then ask them if they think that tax-deductible goods (business-related vacations, luxury hotels, and expensive business lunches, for example) should be cheap for high-income persons. Point out that the former emanates from the latter.

11. A good application of marginal tax rate analysis is to discuss the -importance of the cumulative marginal tax rates across all tax and subsidy programs. In particular, the cumulative marginal tax rate for those in multiple means-tested ―welfare‖ programs, for senior citizens subject to the Social Security earnings tax, and on income from capital (including property taxes, state and federal corporation taxes, capital gains taxes on [unindexed] increases in asset values, and taxes on dividends), can be shown to be far higher than commonly thought.

12. The Laffer curve discussion of marginal tax rates and incentives should be clearly related to the data on how the tax cuts of the 1980s affected the distribution of the tax burden among income groupings.

13. To show students the importance of correctly understanding incidence analysis, it is often worth discussing why there are so many hidden taxes designed to burden people without them being very aware of government as the source of that burden (the squawk minimization principle). Examples include the employer half of Social Security taxes, corporate income taxes, and mandated benefits for employees.

14. Activities 1 and 2 will help reinforce the material in Chapter 4.

ACTIVITIES 1. Ducks in a Row Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class demonstration price ceilings, subsidies, and unintended consequences Chapter 4: Demand and Supply: Applications and Extensions 2 toy ducks, some play money, 3 volunteers 10 minutes works in any size class

Purpose This demonstration illustrates some common problems of government intervention in markets.

Instructions One volunteer plays the role of the government in a poor country. Give the play money to the ―government,‖ except for $1. The government uses this money to buy ducks from the farmer and provides the ducks to the shopkeeper. The second volunteer is an urban shopkeeper. The shopkeeper asks the government for more ducks whenever it is sold out. Give the shopkeeper one duck. The third volunteer is a consumer. The consumer buys ducks. Give the consumer $1 in play money. The instructor is a duck farmer. The farmer keeps the second duck.

Explain this background, ―Ducks are a staple food in this country but they are expensive at $3 each. The government wants to make food cheap for the urban poor to alleviate hunger. They calculate people could afford ducks if they were priced at $1. The government decides to impose a price ceiling of $1; $1 is now the maximum retail price for ducks.‖ Start the game. The consumer buys one duck from the shopkeeper. The shopkeeper requests more ducks from the government. The government comes to the farmer.

Points for discussion The instructor, as the duck farmer, controls the game. There are three points to make in this demonstration.

1. Shortage. The farmer refuses to sell ducks at $1 each. The shopkeeper has no ducks.

2. Subsidy. The farmer offers to sell the ducks for $3. The ducks can then be sold in the marketplace for $1. The government pays a $2 subsidy to keep food prices low.

3. Black markets. After the farmer sells the duck to government for $3, the duck goes to the shopkeeper for $1. The farmer buys back the original duck for $1 and resells it to the government for $3. This can continue until the government runs out of money.

Government intervention in markets can have unintended consequences. The price ceiling initially decreased the amount of food available in the cities. Subsidies to producers can increase production, but subsidies create new incentives.

This example is based on subsidies and price ceilings used in southern China. The farmers did buy and resell poultry to the government.

4.2 A Flat Tax? Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class activity progressive, regressive, proportional taxes Chapter 4 Demand and Supply: Applications and Extensions none 3 minutes works in any size class

Purpose This activity emphasizes the importance of looking at percentages when classifying a tax as progressive, regressive, or proportional.

Instructions Tell the class Congress has approved a new tax to fund scientific research on clones. Everyone will pay $1,000.

Ask them to classify this tax as progressive, regressive, or proportional.

Common answers and points for discussion Many students erroneously see this head tax as proportional. A simple example can show its regressive nature.

Compare a low income student who earns only $1,000 washing dishes at a summer job. to a high income university president who earns $100,000 for running the school. Each are required to pay $1,000 for this tax. For the student, the effective tax rate would be 100 percent. For the president, the effective tax rate would be 1 percent.

A head tax taxes low-income individuals at a higher percentage of their incomes and taxes highincome individuals at a lower percentage. This is a regressive tax.

It may help to point out that low-income earners pay a lower dollar amount when taxes are proportional. Using the same example, if the student paid $10 and the university president paid $1,000 then the tax would be proportional.

This example can be used to introduce other types of taxes with regressive impacts, such as sales taxes on food or cigarettes.

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 1.

An increase in the demand for housing will raise the demand for carpenters, plumbers, and electricians. The rise in demand for construction workers will raise their wages and employment.

2.

The imposition of rent control will hurt college students for several reasons. The quality of rental housing will tend to fall as will the amount of rental housing available. The price ceiling will decrease the incentive of landlords to maintain their property. In addition, the amount of racial, gender, and other types of discrimination in the local rental housing market will rise. Students will be less able to find housing. Lastly, a ―black market‖ for housing would develop.

6.

a. Decreases; b. Increases; c. Decreases; d. Increases

11. The deadweight loss is the loss of the potential gains of buyers and sellers emanating from trades that are squeezed out by the tax. It is an excess burden because even though the exchanges that are squeezed out by the tax impose a cost on buyers and sellers, they do not generate tax revenue (because the trades do not take place).

13. A tax on luxury automobiles is not a good idea if the goal is to raise revenue from the rich.

The demand for luxury automobiles is likely fairly elastic. As a result, sellers (and the workers in the luxury automobile industry) will tend to bear a larger share of the burden of the tax.

Chapter 5 Difficult Cases for the Market, and the Role of Government OUTLINE I. A Closer Look at Economic Efficiency A. Economists often use the concept of efficiency to judge actions because the efficient use of resources implies the maximum value of output from the resource base.

B. Two conditions are necessary for ideal economic efficiency: 1. All activities that provide individuals with more benefits than costs must be undertaken.

2. No activities that provide benefits less than costs should be undertaken.

C. If it‘s worth doing, it‘s worth doing imperfectly.

D. Although perfection is a noble goal, it is rarely worth achieving because additional time and resources devoted to an activity generally yield smaller and smaller benefits and cost more and more.

E. Inefficiency can result when either too little or too much effort is put into an activity.

II. Thinking About the Economic Role of Government A. Protective function of government: The most fundamental function of government is the protection of individuals and their property against acts of aggression.

1. Involves the maintenance of a legal structure (rules) within which people interact peacefully and have a process for the settlement of disputes.

B. Productive function of government 1. Involves the provision of a limited set of goods that are difficult to supply through the market.

III. Potential Shortcomings of the Market A. There are four major reasons why the invisible hand may fail to allocate resources efficiently: (1) lack of competition, (2) externalities, (3) public goods, and (4) poor information.

1. Lack of competition: Sellers may gain by restricting output and raising price. Too few units will be produced.

2. Externalities—the failure to fully register costs and benefits. a. External cost: Present when the actions of an individual or group harm the property of others without their consent. Note: problem arises because property rights are imperfectly defined and/or enforced.

(1) Because costs are not fully registered, the supply curve understates the true cost of production.

(2) Units may be produced that are valued less than their cost.

(3) From the viewpoint of efficiency, too many units are produced.

(4) Pollution problems are often a side effect. b. External benefits: Present when the actions of an individual or group generate benefits for nonparticipating parties.

(1) Demand curve understates total value of output.

(2) Units that are more highly valued than costs may not be produced.

(3) From the viewpoint of efficiency, too few units may be produced.

3. Public Goods a. Goods that are (a) jointly consumed by individuals who simultaneously enjoy consumption of the same product or service and (b) non-excludable consumption of the good cannot be restricted to the customers who pay for it.

(1) If a public good is made available to one person, it is simultaneously made available to others. b. Because those who do not pay cannot be excluded, no one has much incentive to help pay for such goods. Each has an incentive to become a free rider, a person who receives the benefits of the good without helping to pay for its cost. c. When a lot of people become free riders, too little is produced. d. Note: It is the characteristics of the good, not the sector in which it is produced, that distinguishes a public good. e. Examples of public goods: national defense, radio and television broadcast signals, and clear air.

f. Markets often develop ways of providing public goods (e.g. use of advertising to support provision of radio and television). Nonetheless, public goods often cause a breakdown in the harmony between self-interest and the public interest.

4. Problems arising from poor information a. The consumer‘s information problem is minimal if the item is purchased regularly. b. Major problems of conflicting interests and unhappy customers can arise when goods are either (a) difficult to evaluate on inspection and seldom repeatedly purchased from the same producer or (b) potentially capable of serious and lasting harmful side effects that cannot be predicted by a lay person. c. Information as a profit opportunity: Entrepreneurial publishers and other providers of information help consumers find what they seek by providing expert evaluations of the special characteristics built into complex products.

IV. Market and Government Failure A. Market failure 1. Market failure is the term used to describe the failure of markets to achieve the ideal conditions of economic efficiency.

2. When markets allocate goods inefficiently, the problem can generally be traced back to the absence of competition, externalities, public goods, or poor information B. Government failure 1. Government failure is the term used to describe the situation when there is reason to anticipate that political decision-making will fail to achieve the ideal conditions of economic efficiency.

2. Government action directed by political decision-making is merely an alternative form of economic organization. It is not a corrective device that can be counted on to provide a remedy for the shortcomings of markets.

3. Merely because market failure is present, it does not follow that political action will necessarily lead to a more efficient allocation of resources.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  What is economic efficiency and how can it be used to evaluate markets?  What is the role of government in a market economy?  What are externalities? What are public goods?  Why might markets fail to allocate goods and services efficiently?  If the market has shortcomings, does this mean that government intervention will improve things?

CONTEXT This chapter explains why public sector actions might improve efficiency when certain conditions are present. Monopoly power, externalities, public goods, and economic instability are economic forces that are likely to result in market inefficiency. When the market fails to meet our conditions of ideal efficiency, public-sector action can potentially generate net economic gain for a

community (or an economy). Public-sector action need not be merely a zero-sum game in which the gain of one group is precisely offset by another‘s loss.

However—and this point is also important—collective action is merely another method of organizing economic activity. It also suffers from deficiencies (e.g., rational ignorance on the part of voters, the special interest effect, and the attractiveness of shortsighted action). Through economics we can better understand both the strengths and weaknesses of public sector and market economic organization and use this knowledge to help us think more clearly about political economy institutions.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

The concept of economic efficiency must be explained carefully. First, explain that efficiency simply means getting the most out of the available resources. When applied to the entire economy, this criterion requires that: a. all activities with greater social benefits than social costs be undertaken, and b. when social costs exceed the social benefits, an activity should not be undertaken.

2.

After pointing out that competitive markets are consistent with efficiency, indicate that lack of competition (monopoly, collusion, etc.), spillover effects, and public goods create circumstances for which the invisible hand will fail to meet the criteria of ideal efficiency.

These three deficiencies, plus complications that arise because of macro instability, are the core of the case for government intervention.

3.

When explaining what economic theory says about public sector economic organization, point out that this is a new and exciting area of thinking. Public choice theory is not as well developed (and tested) as is the theory of market behavior. Our teaching experience has shown that many students often become extremely interested in this material.

4.

Exerting an influence on government is costly. Yet moving a government toward more efficient policies, and rooting out fraud or dishonesty will benefit the citizenry as a whole.

However, this benefit usually cannot be captured by the group producing it. An interesting discussion topic here, especially for advanced students, would be: ―Is good government a public good, and thus likely to be underproduced?‖

5.

Our teaching experience indicates that Critical Analysis questions 2, 6, 7, 8, and 11 are good ―discussion starters.‖

6.

Since this chapter emphasizes the discussion of efficiency, it is helpful to show students that the (first part of the) right answer to any efficiency question is ―it depends,‖ but that the crucial analytical questions pertain to what it depends on and how importantly it depends on each of the determinants. For example, you can show students that the most efficient car for a given decision maker (and it is important to emphasize that the answer varies with the decision maker and the situation faced) depends on a huge number of variables, including age, height, driving record, distance traveled to work, insurance costs, whether one is married, whether one has children, attitudes toward risk, and so on. Similarly, the most efficient grade to get in a course depends on major, difficulty of grading, difficulty of the material, whether you will see the same instructor again, whether you are on academic probation, whether you are an intercollegiate athlete in season, and so on. There are many

ways in which this message can be communicated to students, but showing them a real world discussion of what the efficient choice depends on is crucial to understanding this point.

7.

Roommate problems provide a rich source of analogies that illustrate the analysis of public goods and externalities, particularly the free-rider problem. Whether one considers the generally poor conditions of common areas, problems of noise or taste pollution, the transactions costs incurred in trying to internalize externalities, or the importance of the number of parties involved, roommate illustrations can make the analytical points about market failures clearer.

8.

Activities 1 to 5 will help reinforce the material in Chapter 5.

ACTIVITIES 1. Externalities on a River Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class demonstration negative externalities Chapter 5: Difficult Cases for the Market, and the Role of Government none 10 minutes works in any size class

Purpose This helps students understand who bears external costs and why externalities are a type of market failure.

Instructions Draw a simple picture of a river. (Two curving lines are sufficient.) Add a rectangle labeled ―FACTORY‖ at one end of the river. Draw a stick figure farther down the river. Add a rectangle labeled ―BREWERY‖ at the other end of the river.

Replace the names in the example below with names of students. ―This drawing represents three users of a natural resource. Shuyi owns a sweater factory on the river. Trevon enjoys going to a beach on the river. Pat owns a brewery that uses water from the river.‖ Draw a line into the Brewery from the river. Add a beach umbrella for Trevon. Draw a discharge pipe from the factory to the river. ―Let‘s look at the market for Shuvi‘s Sweaters. The demand for these sweaters will be based on consumers‘ tastes, incomes, the prices of substitutes and complements, and the number of consumers in the market.‖ Graph a normal downward-sloping demand curve. ―The supply curve for Shuvi‘s Sweaters is based on the costs of producing sweaters.‖ Add an upward-sloping supply curve to the graph. Label this ―Supply with All Costs.‖ Ask the class how the supply curve would shift if Shuvi got her materials for free. Then ask them how the curve would shift if she didn‘t have to pay her workers. The supply curve would shift to the right, in either case. ―Of course these labor and material costs are hard to avoid, but there are costs of production that firms can avoid paying.‖

Explain that a by-product of sweater production is toxic sludge. Draw thick lines representing this sludge from the factory‘s discharge pipe. This sludge is dumped in the river. Draw more thick lines of sludge over the stick figure and into the brewery. ―Trevon‘s day at the beach is ruined. He‘s covered with goop. Pat‘s beer is ruined. The entire production run has been contaminated. These are real costs associated with Shuvi‘s sweater production, but Trevon and Pat pay these costs. Shuvi does not consider these external costs when making supply decisions.‖ Return to the supply and demand graph. Draw a new supply curve to the right of the original curve. Label the new curve ―Supply with Private Costs.‖ Points for discussion Avoiding external costs, such as the pollution damages, increases the supply curve just like avoiding any other cost of production. In this case the costs are not truly avoided, but imposed on third parties. This causes a divergence between the socially optimal outcome and the firm‘s decision based on its private costs.

Comparing the two intersections on the graph shows: Consumers pay too low a price for sweaters and too large a quantity is produced. If the external costs were considered, prices would be higher and quantity lower.

There are several possible ways to improve the outcome. All involve making decision makers consider the external costs. This example can be used to introduce the concepts of discharge fees, regulation, liability rules.

An interesting extension is to explore how changes in ownership might affect the outcome. If the sweater factory, the beach, and the brewery were all owned by one individual, then the external costs would be considered.

2. Everyone ―Enjoys‖ a Good Cigar Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class demonstration negative externalities Chapter 5: Difficult Cases for the Market, and the Role of Government a cigar (and lighter) 3 minutes works best in classes with 50 or fewer students

Purpose This helps students understand external costs and why externalities cause non-optimal outcomes.

It also illustrates externalities in consumption.

Instructions Light the cigar and smoke it. Blow as much smoke as possible at the students. Tell the class how enjoyable the cigar is.

As the room fills with smoke, explain that you intend to bring a cigar to class every day, since it gives so much pleasure. Ask if anyone has objections.

Common answers and points for discussion Most of the class will object to daily exposure to cigar smoke. Second-hand smoke is a negative externality, imposing costs on the class. The smoker‘s decision, based on his or her own pleasure, ignores these external costs. The private decision will not be optimal.

This demonstration could be done using other irritants besides cigar smoke. A loud radio could be played during the lecture. Garlic bread or crackers could be offered to half the students. Again the private decisions will not lead to a socially optimal outcome.

If the class is large enough, there will frequently be a small group of students who chat during lecture. They can be used as an example of negative externalities. Their decision to talk is based on their own private enjoyment, disregarding the external cost they impose on their classmates.

Once again, private decisions lead to an inefficient outcome.

3. Private Goods/Public Goods: A Demonstration Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class demonstration public and private goods Chapter 5: Difficult Cases for the Market, and the Role of Government a candy bar 10 minutes works in any size class

Purpose This example vividly illustrates the difference between public and private goods.

Instructions Ask for a volunteer. Give the volunteer a candy bar and ask him or her to eat it.

While the student eats the candy, explain that you don‘t want the student‘s enjoyment of the candy to be marred by taking notes. Offer to draw some beautiful artwork on the board to increase the volunteer‘s enjoyment.

Draw a picture on the board. It need not be complex and probably won‘t be beautiful. A canoe with a couple of stick figures, on a river works well, particularly if the canoe is headed for a waterfall. A large poster, or a slide, of real artwork could be substituted.

Ask the volunteer if he, or she, is enjoying the candy and the art.

Ask the rest of the class if they get any enjoyment from the candy.

Ask the rest of the class if they get any enjoyment from the art.

Points for discussion The candy is a private good. It is depletable and excludable. Only the volunteer got to enjoy the candy. The candy could easily be rationed by price.

The ―artwork‖ is neither depletable nor excludable. The volunteer‘s enjoyment did not diminish the enjoyment of the rest of the class. Price rationing would not be effective for the ―artwork‖ since all students in the classroom could see the art, even if they didn‘t pay. The ―artwork‖ is a public good.

This makes a good introduction to many public goods issues.

4. Alphabet Soup: The Role of Government Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class assignment the role of government Chapter 5: Difficult Cases for the Market, and the Role of Government none 15 minutes works in any size class

Purpose This assignment shows many government activities exist in a market economy.

Instructions Ask the students to list as many government-provided goods and services as possible. They should include activities at the federal, state and local levels.

Then ask them to list all the ―alphabet‖ agencies (FBI, CIA, USDA, etc.).

The most important question to ask is ―WHY?‖ Why, in a predominantly market economy, does the government play so many roles?

Common answers and points for discussion Students will be able to list dozens of government activities and nearly as many agencies.

The rationale for government action can include: Creating an institutional framework for markets (laws, courts, money, SEC) Addressing market failure (national defense, education, highways, EPA) Addressing monopoly (antitrust, public utilities, FTC) Addressing equity and income distribution (Social Security, food stamps) Macroeconomic Stability (fiscal policy, monetary policy) Financing the above activities (taxes, bonds, IRS)

5. Article on the Role of Government Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Class limitations:

Take-home assignment the role of government, market failure Chapter 5: Difficult Cases for the Market, and the Role of Government none works in any size class

Purpose This assignment gives students an opportunity to identify real-world market failures and how government can address these issues. Categorizing a real problem helps students clearly distinguish the various types of market failure.

Instructions This assignment is difficult for many students, particularly if they are unclear on the concept of market failure. Not every example of government action will be appropriate for this assignment.

Students may find it easier to make a list of possible areas of market failures before looking for an article.

Points for discussion A market system depends on accurate price signals to allocate goods and services. Market failure distorts the price system, leading to the inefficient use of resources. Government intervention in cases of market failure can improve economic efficiency.

Some students may choose inappropriate examples for this assignment. Emphasize the fact that business failure is not the same as market failure. An effective market will drive inefficient firms out of business; this is a market success. Similarly, entry or the introduction of new technology may hurt the profits of incumbent firms, but these are not examples of market failure.

Name

Course Role of Government

Find a recent news article that shows the government addressing market failure.

Identify the type of market failure. Is it a problem of negative externalities, positive externalities, public good, or open access?

Explain how government action can improve economic efficiency.

Graph the market failure and explain the problem. The show how the government action will change the situation.

Turn in a copy of your article with your explanation.

Write the date and source on the article.

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 4.

The antimissile system is a public good for the residents of Washington, D.C. Strictly speaking, none of the other items is a public good because each could be provided to some consumers (paying customers, for example) without being provided to others.

6. Without protection of person and property, there is no assurance that one can benefit from either (1) current productive effort or (2) saving (and investing) for the future. Under such circumstances, the incentive of individuals to produce and plan for the future is greatly diminished. In contrast, protection of person and property provides individuals with assurance that they will be permitted to ―reap what they sow.‖ Under these circumstances, individuals sow far more abundantly.

11. Whether a good is currently provided by government or not decides whether the good is a public good. This has nothing to do with whether a good is a public good in economics.

14. A government intervention would be efficient if the benefits from the intervention exceeded the cost of the intervention. All opportunity costs (such as tax money required, resources utilized, and deadweight losses) would need to be considered in the comparison. A government intervention would be considered inefficient if the costs exceeded the benefits.

Chapter 6 The Economics of Political Action OUTLINE I. The Size and Growth of the U.S. Government A. Total government spending accounted for only 9.4 percent of GDP in 1930, and only one third of this spending was at the federal level.

B. Government spending, particularly at the federal level, soared from 1930 to 1980.

Total government spending rose from 9.4 percent of GDP in 1930 to 33.7 percent in 1980 (more than 3 times its 1930 level).

C. After remaining fairly constant between 1980 and 2000, the size of the U.S. government has increased dramatically since (increasing to almost 36.2 percent of the U.S. economy in 2019).

D. Personal income and payroll taxes provide about one-half of government revenue.

E. The largest categories of government spending are education, health care, Social Security, and other transfer payments.

II. Similarities and Differences Between Political and Market Allocation A. Competitive behavior is present in both the market and public sectors.

B. Public-sector organization can break the individual consumption-payment link.

C. Scarcity imposes the aggregate consumption-payment link in both sectors.

D. Private-sector action is based on voluntary choice; public sector (when democratic) is based on majority rule.

E. When collective decisions are made legislatively, voters must choose among candidates who represent a bundle of positions on issues.

F. Income and power are distributed differently in the two sectors.

III. Political Decision-Making: An Overview A. Public choice analysis applies the tools of economics to the political process. The goal is to provide insight concerning how the process works.

1. Self-interested behavior is present in both market and political sectors.

2. Political process can be viewed as a complex exchange process involving (1) votertaxpayers, (2) politicians, and (3) bureaucrats.

B. Incentives confronted by the voter 1. Voters will tend to support those candidates whom they believe will provide them the most government services and transfer benefits, net of personal costs.

2. Rational ignorance effect: Recognizing their vote is unlikely to be decisive, most voters have little incentive to obtain information on issues and alternative candidates.

3. Because of the rational ignorance effect, voters will be uninformed on many issues; such issues will not enter into their decision-making process.

C. Incentives confronted by the politician 1. Political officials: interested in winning elections. Just as profits are the lifeblood of the market entrepreneur, votes are the lifeblood of the politician.

2. Rationally uninformed voters often must be convinced to ―want‖ a candidate.

3. Legislative bodies are something like a Board of Directors.

D. Incentives confronted by the government bureaucrat 1. Bureaucrats (persons that handle day-to-day operations of government) seek promotions, job security, power, and so on.

2. The interests of bureaucrats are often complementary with those of the interest groups they serve.

3. Bureaucrats can usually expand their own interests, as well as that of their constituents, by working for larger budgets and program expansion.

IV. When the Political Process Works Well A. Other things constant, legislators will have a strong incentive to support the political actions that provide voters with large total benefits relative to costs.

B. If a government project is really productive, it will always be possible to allocate the project‘s cost so that all voters will gain.

C. When voters pay in proportion to benefits received, all voters will gain if the government action is productive (and all will lose if it is unproductive.) Under these circumstances, there is a harmony between good politics and economic efficiency.

V. When the Political Process Works Poorly A. Special-interest effect 1. Special-interest issue: One that generates substantial personal benefits for a small number of constituents while imposing a small individual cost on a large number of other voters.

2. Members of an interest group will feel strongly about an issue that provides them with substantial personal benefits. Such issues will dominate their political choices.

3. In contrast, the voters bearing the cost of special-interest legislation will often be uninformed on such an issue because it exerts only a small impact on their personal welfare and because they are unable to avoid the cost by becoming better informed.

4. Politicians have a strong incentive to favor special interests even if action is inefficient.

5. Logrolling and pork-barrel legislation strengthen the special-interest effect.

B. Shortsightedness effect 1. Issues that yield clearly defined current benefits at the expense of future costs that are difficult to identify.

2. The political process is biased toward the adoption of such proposals even when they are efficient.

C. Rent-seeking 1. Actions by individuals and interest groups designed to restructure public policy in a manner that will either directly or indirectly redistribute more income to themselves.

2. Widespread use of the taxing, spending, and regulating powers of government that favors some at the expense of others will encourage rent-seeking.

3. Rent-seeking moves resources away from productive activities. The output of economies with substantial amounts of rent-seeking will fall below their potential.

D. Inefficiency of government operations 1. In the public sector, the absence of the profit motive reduces the incentive of producers to keep costs low.

2. Neither is there a bankruptcy process capable of weeding out inefficient producers.

3. Public-sector managers are seldom in a position to gain personally from measures that reduce costs.

4. Because public officials and bureau managers spend other people‘s money, they are likely to be less conscious of cost than they would be with their own resources.

VI. Political Favoritism, Crony Capitalism, and Government Failure A. Crony capitalism is the situation where ….

1. political decision-makers direct subsidies, grants, tax breaks, and regulatory favors toward businesses willing to provide them with campaign funds and other forms of political support.

2. It is a natural outgrowth of increases in government spending, constant changes in taxes, and expansion in regulation.

B. Crony capitalism is often driven by the bootlegger–Baptist strategy: greedy action packaged as moral behavior.

1. Opportunistic rent-seekers often frame their programs in a manner designed to attract support from naïve idealists.

2. They argue their programs will enhance child safety, promote energy independence, save family farms, or some other widely supported goal.

3. But when one looks below the surface, one discovers that these programs are about government favoritism providing handsome profits to the well-organized special interest groups.

C. Bootlegger—Baptist examples include:

1. Mattel incorporating costly testing procedures into the Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act of 2008. a. The action increased the costs of rivals and drove used toy sellers like Goodwill out of the market.

D. Market entrepreneurs versus crony capitalists 1. Market entrepreneurs get ahead by providing consumers with products that are more highly valued than the resources required for their production.

2. Crony capitalists get ahead by providing political players with campaign contributions and other political resources in exchange for government contracts, subsidies, tax benefits, and other forms of political favoritism a. Projects of crony capitalists will often be counterproductive.

3. Crony capitalism reflects government failure and undermines the legitimacy of the democratic political process VII. The Economic Way of Thinking About Markets and Government A. Both bad news and good news flow from public-choice analysis.

1. The bad news: For certain classes of economic activity, unconstrained democratic government will predictably be a source of economic waste and inefficiency.

2. The good news: Properly structured constitutional rules can improve the expected result from government.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  How large is the government sector, and what are the main activities undertaken by governments?  What are the similarities and differences between political and market allocation of goods?  What insights can economics provide about the behavior of voters, politicians, and bureaucrats?  How will their actions affect political outcomes?  When is democratic political decision-making most likely to allocate resources efficiently?

When is it most likely to lead to economic inefficiency?  What is crony capitalism, and is it an increasing problem in the United States?

CONTEXT In this chapter, the basic tools of economics are utilized to analyze the collective decision-making process. Using the individual as the unit of analysis, we develop theories of political behavior.

This chapter outlines both how we would expect the collective-choice process to work and why it will sometimes fail to allocate resources efficiently.

When the market fails to allocate resources efficiently, the public sector can potentially act to improve the welfare of all citizens—government action need not be a zero-sum game. As we discuss in the text, government action in such areas as crime prevention, national defense, provision of a stable monetary environment, and regulation of monopoly power is rooted to the potential gains from action to correct market failure.

However, there is good reason to expect that collective action will promote economic inefficiency when certain conditions are present. Special interests exert disproportionate power when decisions are made collectively. The political process is biased toward short-term solutions even if these actions cause substantial problems later. Bureaucratic decision making and the incentive structure confronted by public sector managers provide little incentive for entrepreneurial efficiency. There is often a conflict between good economics and a winning electoral strategy. Thus, it should not surprise us to find that public policy is sometimes a source of rent seeking and economic inefficiency.

This chapter provides a vivid illustration of the power and breadth of economic analysis.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

At the outset, explain to students that the purpose of political economic theory is to expand our understanding of real-world events. Economists typically ask, ―What should the government do?‖ The theory outlined in Chapter six asks, ―What can the government be expected to do?‖

2.

Carefully outline how the individual welfare of both voters and political entrepreneurs is influenced by a candidate‘s position on issues. Be sure to highlight the importance of voter ignorance and the information provided by candidates to voters.

3.

When externalities are present, political action has the potential to improve social (total) welfare. A diagram such as Exhibit 3 in the previous chapter could help to illustrate this point.

4.

The most compelling reason for public sector action is that market failure results in inefficiency relative to the hypothetical ideal. Therefore, corrective action could generate greater social benefits than costs.

5.

In addition to public sector action to improve allocative efficiency, the political process may be utilized to redistribute income. Public choice analysis indicates that self-interest redistribution of income from the rich to the poor will not be particularly attractive to political entrepreneurs. Such redistribution generates unstable majorities. However, if potential income recipients were well-organized and easily identified, redistribution would become more attractive to political entrepreneurs. There is little reason to expect that redistribution of this sort (to well-organized groups) will necessarily promote greater equality.

6.

The section on the ―Special-Interest Effect‖ explains the economic logic behind these political facts of life. A classroom discussion of this topic should be of interest to students.

7.

The special-interest effect is one of the major sources of government failure. Be sure to explain that the rational ignorance effect reinforces the special-interest effect since many nonspecial-interest voters remain uninformed on issues that are of little consequence to their personal well-being.

8.

The shortsightedness effect stems from the inability of political entrepreneurs to gain from maximizing long-range future political benefits. Since future benefits (and costs) tend to be elusive and difficult to identify, in a sense the shortsightedness effect is merely a special case

of the elusive nature of the benefits (or costs). The political process is biased against programs yielding elusive benefits at the expense of easily identified costs. In contrast, the process is biased in favor of programs that yield readily identified benefits at the expense of elusive costs kept hidden from the voter. As explained in the text, these factors can cause allocative inefficiency by the government.

9.

The text presents the argument that public sector firms (agencies, departments, etc.) are likely to be operated less efficiently than their private sector counterparts, particularly competitive firms. However, it is important to note that this conclusion does not presume that public sector employees are lazy, incapable, and work less intensively. Rather, emphasis is placed on the incentive structure faced by public-sector managers and employees; also stressed is the corresponding lack of incentive for individuals (or small groups of individuals) to promote public-sector efficiency. The taxpayer is in an extremely weak position to identify and eliminate operational inefficiency resulting from actions designed to further the personal and political aims of the public sector administrators. There is no public sector counterpart to bankruptcy that would automatically eliminate extreme cases of operational inefficiency. In addition, collective decision making theory suggests that the widely dispersed interests of taxpayers can be expected to lose out when they conflict with the highly concentrated interests of public-sector managers, employee groups, and favored consumers, even though economic inefficiency may result. The incentives are simply perverse. Therefore, it is difficult to believe that this incentive structure does not adversely affect the operational inefficiency of the public sector.

10. The Thumbnail Sketch summarizes the major weaknesses of both the market and public sectors.

11. Discuss the incentive structure that generates the rational ignorance effect. Ask students whether they know the positions of their congressional representatives on such issues as: (a) a reduction in national defense spending; (b) an increase in the minimum wage; (c) price controls on energy products; and (d) an expansion in the funding for higher education.

12. A good analogy to rational voter ignorance is rational student ignorance. Just as the incentives facing voters lead them to be less informed about political decisions than private ones, the incentives facing students lead them to be rationally far less informed about material that is less likely to appear on an exam.

13. A good extension of rational voter ignorance is why it leads to rational representative ignorance when it comes to bureaucratic oversight and the likelihood of bureaucratic scandals (but once public attention is focused on the subject, much political effort will be spent to show voters ―tough‖ oversight; and to blame someone else). This incentive structure tends to result in cosmetic ―reforms‖ that make little actual difference.

14. As a way of integrating the material in this chapter with what has gone before, it is helpful to explain that this is just another application of looking at incentive structures, with particular emphasis on the differences between the incentives facing consumers and those facing voters, between those facing sellers and those facing politicians, and between private- and publicsector bureaucrats.

15. The following analogies will help bring the concepts of ―rational voter ignorance‖ and ―rent seeking‖ more alive to students:

a. rational student ignorance (students recognize that it is rational to be relatively more ignorant of things thought less likely to be on the test, since the incentive to know them is less) as an analogy to rational voter ignorance, and b. the rent seeking that goes on in class after test results have been announced (those who did poorly start lobbying for a reduction in the importance of the exam, while those who did better lobby against such ―constitutional‖ changes in grading policy).

16. Discuss the differences and similarities between market and public-sector economic organization. Point out that most economies rely on some combination of these two general forms of economic organization.

17. Critical Analysis questions 2, 6, 8, and 11 should provide discussion starters related to the major issues of this chapter.

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 5.

Rent seeking is actions by individuals and interest groups designed to restructure public policy in a manner that will either directly or indirectly redistribute more income to themselves. The incentive to engage in rent seeking is directly proportional to the ease with which the political process can be used for personal (or interest group) gain at the expense of others. When a government attempts to favor some at the expense of others, counterproductive activities will expand while positive-sum productive activities will shrink.

People will spend more time organizing and lobbying politicians and less time producing goods and services. Since fewer resources will be utilized to create wealth (and more utilized in rent-seeking activities), economic progress will be retarded.

6.

True. Because each individual computer customer both decides the issue (what computer, if any, will be purchased) and bears the consequences of a mistaken choice, each has a strong incentive to acquire information needed to make a wise choice. In contrast, each voter recognizes that one vote, even if mistaken, will not decide the congressional election. Thus, a voter has little incentive to search for information to make a better-informed choice.

11. The shortsightedness effect results from voters and politicians tending to support projects that promise substantial current benefits at the expense of difficult-to-identify future costs. In addition, the political process is biased against proposals with clearly identifiable current costs but yielding less concrete and less obvious future benefits. As a result, public-sector action tends to be less efficient.

15. The presence of the sugar price supports and highly restrictive import quotas reflect the special-interest nature of the issue. Even though there are far more sugar consumers than growers, politicians apparently gain more by supporting the sugar growers and soliciting their political contributions than by representing the interests of consumers. Government action in this area has almost certainly reduced the income levels and living standards of Americans.

Chapter 7 Taking the Nation‘s Economic Pulse

OUTLINE I. GDP—A Measure of Output A. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the market value of final goods and services produced within a country during a specific time period, usually a year.

B. What counts toward GDP? 1. Only final goods and services count. a. Sales at intermediate stages of production are not counted because their value is embodied within the final-user good. Their inclusion would result in double counting.

2. Financial transactions and income transfers are excluded because they do not involve production.

3. Only production within the geographic borders of the country is counted.

4. Only goods produced during the current period are counted.

C. Dollars—The common denominator for GDP 1. Each good produced increases output by the amount the purchaser pays for the good.

2. GDP is equal to the sum of the total spending on all goods and services produced during the year.

II. GDP as a Measure of Both Output and Income A. The dollar flow of expenditures on final goods = GDP = The dollar flow of income (and indirect cost) from final goods B. Deriving GDP by the expenditure approach 1. Sum of the expenditures on final-user goods and services purchased by households, investors, governments, and foreigners.

2. When derived by the expenditure approach, there are four components of GDP. a. Personal consumption purchases b. Gross private investment (including inventories) c. Government purchases (both consumption and investment) d. Net exports (exports – imports) C. Deriving GDP by the resource cost-income approach 1. Sum of the costs incurred and income (including profits) generated producing goods and services during the period.

2. When derived by the resource cost/income approach, the direct-cost income components of GDP are: a. Employee Compensation b. Self-employment income c. Rents d. Interest e. Corporate profit f. Sum of a through e equals national income 3. Not all cost components of GDP result in an income payment to a resource supplier. In order to get to GDP, we need to account also for three other factors:

a. Indirect business taxes: Taxes that increase the business firm‘s costs of production and therefore the prices charged to consumers. b. Depreciation: The cost of the wear and tear on the machines and other capital assets used to produce goods and services during the period. c. Net Income of Foreigners: The income that foreigners earn producing goods within the borders of a country minus the income Americans earn abroad.

4. When derived by resource cost/income approach, GDP is equal national income (employee compensation, self-employment income, rents, interest, corporate profit) plus indirect business taxes, depreciation, and the net income of foreigners.

D. Relative size of GDP components E. The COVID-19 pandemic and GDP III. Adjusting for Price Changes and Deriving Real GDP A. The term ―real‖ means adjusted for inflation B. Price indexes are used to adjust income and output data for the effects of inflation.

C. A price index measures the cost of purchasing a market basket (or ―bundle‖) of goods at a point in time relative to the cost of purchasing the identical market basket during an earlier reference (or base) period.

D. Two key price indexes: Consumer Price Index and GDP deflator 1. The consumer price index (CPI) measures the impact of price changes on the cost of the typical bundle of goods and services purchased by households.

2. The GDP deflator is a broader price index than the CPI. It is designed to measure the change in the average price of the market basket of goods included in GDP. E. The rate of inflation is equal to: This year‘s Price Index – Last year‘s Price Index  100 Last year‘s Price Index F. Using the GDP deflator to derive real GDP 1. Real GDP2 = Nominal GDP2  (GDP deflator1/GDP deflator2).

2. Data on both money GDP and price changes are essential for meaningful output comparisons between two time periods.

IV. Problems with GDP as a Measuring Rod A. It does not count non-market production.

B. It does not count the underground economy.

C. It makes no adjustment for leisure D. It probably understates output increases because of the problem of estimating improvements in the quality of products.

E. It does not adjust for harmful side effects.

F. GDP understates well-being in the information age.

V. Differences in GDP Over Time A. Per capita real GDP has risen substantially over the past several decades in the United States.

1. Per capita real GDP nearly tripled between 1960 and 2008.

2. As real GDP per capita has risen, the quality of most goods has risen and the amount of work time to purchase goods has fallen.

VI. The Great Contribution of GDP A. In spite of its shortcomings, real GDP is a reasonably accurate measure of short-term fluctuations in output.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  What is GDP? How is GDP measured?  When making comparisons over time, why is it important to adjust nominal GDP for the effects of changes in the price level?  What do price indexes measure? How can they be used to estimate the rate of inflation and adjust for changes in the general level of prices?  Is GDP a good measure of output? What are its strengths and weaknesses?

CONTEXT In this chapter the student is introduced to: (a) the technicalities of how we measure the flow of output; (b) the distinction between nominal and real income; (c) the mechanics of how price indexes are constructed; (d) the limitations of GDP as a measuring rod of economic activity; and (e) the importance of real GDP as an indicator of the short-term level of total output. This chapter lays the foundation for later macro material on cyclical economic conditions and the determinants of national income.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

Be sure to emphasize that GDP is a flow concept designed to measure the amount of production generated during a period and not the total wealth of an economy.

2.

Even though this point is highlighted in the text, instructors will find it useful to work an example similar to Exhibit 7-1, emphasizing that GDP counts only final products. Point out that if this were not the case, double-counting would result.

3.

Use the two alternative methods of measuring GDP to show that there are both positive and negative aspects to economic activity. The expenditure approach focuses on the positive attributes of GDP—the fact that purchasers value the items produced enough to pay for them.

However, the resource cost–income approach focuses on the cost involved in the production of goods. Resource owners were paid in order to induce them to undertake the production of the items during the period. This approach emphasizes to the student that GDP is not an index of economic welfare.

4.

Calculating real GDP in terms of current dollars will help students to get a better grasp on this concept. Up-to-date information for both the GDP deflator and nominal GDP are available in the Federal Reserve Bulletin and Survey of Current Business (monthly publications) as well as at the web site www.bea.gov. As a classroom exercise, use the data on nominal GDP and the GDP deflator to calculate real GDP during the most recent year. Compare the real GDP data for 2012 and 2019 presented in Exhibit 6.

5.

It is important to emphasize what is excluded from GDP. Otherwise, students may be led to believe that it is an indicator of something that it was not intended to measure. Point out that GDP excludes leisure but includes expenditures that minimize the effects of ―bads‖ (e.g., pollution, crime, and war).

6.

The boxed feature explains how the time cost of many goods has changed over time. The box helps illustrate the point that as real incomes rise the time cost required to purchase goods falls.

7.

Given the shortcomings of GDP as a measuring rod, many instructors will want to ask their students why economists (and the news media) place so much emphasis on GDP. Answer— despite its shortcomings, GDP is still a reliable indicator of short-term ups and downs in the rate of production; it reveals accelerations or decelerations in output.

8.

Discussion of the Critical Analysis questions will enhance student understanding of the major concepts of this chapter.

9.

One good way to motivate students to learn the measurement issues in both Chapters 7 and 8 is to admit that while they are not exactly inherently interesting, they do help one understand common misuses of economic data. Knowledge of the measurement issues involved in economic data provides a self-defense against misleading analyses (e.g., the use of unemployment data instead of employment data as an indicator of output or taking advantage of biases in price index measures as a way to inflate or deflate the values attached to some ―real‖ variable).

10. A good quick classroom way to introduce the question of how well GDP and other macroeconomic measurements capture what we want to know is by analogy to the question of how well tests measure what students really know and why teachers use them (sometimes appropriately and sometimes not) despite their known imperfections.

11. Activity 1 in the next section helps students understand how price indexes are formed, while Activity 2 familiarizes students with a variety of sources of economic data.

ACTIVITIES 1. Create a Student Price Index Type: Topics: Textbook: Class limitations:

Take-home assignment Consumer choice Chapter 7: Taking the Nation‘s Economic Pulse works in any size class

Purpose This assignment gives students a practical look at how price indices are measured. It also establishes base prices for calculating inflation rates later in the term. (See Activity 8.3, Changes in the Student Price Index.)

Instructions The students should pick real transactions prices for goods they actually purchase. If the indices will be used to calculate the inflation rate, they should save a copy of this assignment in a safe place. They should not use prices from catalogs since they won‘t be subject to change over the semester.

Points for discussion This assignment makes a good introduction to a discussion of market basket selection for price indices. The goods that students usually pick for their market basket account for a relatively small portion of consumer spending, compared to housing, medical care, transportation, etc. Ask the students which goods are likely to change price frequently.

This can be used to introduce problems with the measurement of the Consumer Price Index.

Name

Course Price Index Assignment

The Consumer Price Index includes the prices of hundreds of goods purchased by consumers. It is possible to construct many other price indexes.

Your mission: Make up a personalized student price index.

1. Choose 5 (or more) different products—be specific e.g.: unleaded gasoline, Budweiser beer.

2. Pick a quantity for each product—e.g.: 15 gallons gasoline, 12-pack Bud. 3. Find the actual price for each product.

4. Calculate the total cost of buying these products.

2. Data Hunt Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class or take-home assignment macroeconomic data Chapter 7: Taking the Nation‘s Economic Pulse; Chapter 8: Economic Fluctuations, Unemployment, and Inflation none 50 minutes, or longer works in any size class

Purpose This assignment has the student collect a wide variety of economic data. The numbers provide for many interesting comparisons. It also familiarizes students with a variety of sources of economic data.

Instructions This is a scavenger hunt for economic data. It can be used as a class activity or as a take-home assignment. Structuring it as a race between teams of students adds a competitive element. Much of the data is available online from various sources on the World Wide Web. Unless students are already familiar with the Web sources, the library will be a faster resource.

Give each team of students a copy of the following list and a deadline. Ask them to get current statistics for each measure. The team with the most answers wins.

Points for discussion Ask students which data sources were the most informative. This activity can be used to introduce sources of economic data, both on-line and printed.

A variety of interesting observations can be made, depending on the specific figures that students find. International differences in income, unemployment, and inflation can be striking. The wide range of interest rates can be interesting. The components of National Income can be discussed.

Students will find numbers for some items that are several years old. This can make a huge difference for some variables, but other variables will be almost unchanged. This can be used to introduce a discussion of the relative volatility of different macroeconomic variables.

Name

Course Data Hunt

Find current figures for the following items.

1. U.S. unemployment rate 2. Consumer Price Index 3. U.S. inflation rate 4. U.S. Gross Domestic Product 5. U.S. per capita GDP 6. Net Domestic Product (U.S.) 7. Disposable Income (U.S.) 8. Consumption Spending (U.S.) 9. Government Spending (U.S.) 10. M1 11. M2 12. the National Debt 13. the government budget deficit 14. Imports 15. Exports 16. the trade deficit 17. the discount rate 18. the yield on government bonds 19. an interest rate on home mortgages 20. an interest rate on a savings account 21. the prime rate 22. the Dow Jones Industrial Average 23. General Motors stock price

24. Microsoft‘s stock price 25. Netscape‘s stock price 26. the value of the US dollar in yen (Japan) 27. the value of the US dollar in pounds (Great Britain) 28. the value of the US dollar in marks (Germany) 29. the inflation rate in any European country 30. the unemployment rate in any European country 31. the Gross Domestic Product of any European country 32. the per capita GDP of any European country 33. the inflation rate in any African country 34. the unemployment rate in any African country 35. the Gross Domestic Product of any African country 36. the per capita GDP of any African country 37. the inflation rate in any Asian country 38. the unemployment rate in any Asian country 39. the Gross Domestic Product of any Asian country 40. the per capita GDP of any Asian country 41. the inflation rate in any Central or South American country 42. the unemployment rate in any Central or South American country 43. the Gross Domestic Product of any Central or South American country 44. the per capita GDP of any Central or South American country

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 2.

2 percent.

4. Both the construction expenditures and the corporate profits of the plant will increase GDP because both take place in the United States. Since the construction involves U.S. workers, it also adds to GNP, but the profits, since they belong to foreigners, will not add to GNP. 8.

The following table shows the box office receipts in $2019:

Movie Avatar Titanic Star Wars Shrek 2 E.T: The ExtraTerrestrial

Box Office Receipts (Millions) $760.50 $600.80 $461.00 $437.20

CPI in Year Year Released Released 2009 214.5 1997 160.5 1977 60.6 2004 188.9

$399.90

1982

96.5

Box Office Receipts in 2019 $906.57 $957.16 $1945.18 $591.81 $1059.62

The movie with the highest box office receipts in 2019 dollars was Star Wars.

13. These items are omitted because it is difficult to assign them as a value since they do not involve a market transaction. The GDP is not intended to be sexist. However, it clearly does omit a number of productive functions that are often performed by women. Other measures of income that focus on markets usually omit these same productive activities. Of course, productive activities performed by men are also omitted when they do not involve a market exchange.

15. a. personal consumption expenditure; gross private domestic investment; government consumption and gross investment; exports – imports. $21,427.8 billion. c. employee compensation; self-employment income; rents; corporate profits; interest income; indirect business taxes; depreciation; net income of Americans abroad. $21,427.8 billion.

Chapter 8 Economic Fluctuations, Unemployment, and Inflation OUTLINE I. Swings in the Economic Pendulum A. A hypothetical business cycle

1. The phases of the business cycle are: expansion, peak (or boom), contraction, and recessionary trough.

2. The duration of business cycles is irregular and the magnitude of the swings in economic activity varies.

II. Economic Fluctuations and the Labor Market A. The non-institutional, civilian, adult, population is grouped into two broad categories: (1) persons not in the labor force and (2) persons in the labor force.

B. Labor market participation rate = number in labor force (employed + unemployed) / population (age 16 and over).

C. In order to be classified as unemployed, one must either be on layoff or actively seeking work.

D. Rate of unemployment = number unemployed/number in labor force (employed + unemployed) E. Some economists argue that the employment/population ratio—the number employed divided by population 16 and over)—is a better indicator of job availability than the unemployment rate.

F. Employment rate is linked with business cycles. The unemployment rate generally increases during a recession (indicated by shading) and declines during periods of expansion in output.

III. Three Types of Unemployment A. Frictional unemployment 1. Caused by imperfect information in a world of dynamic change.

2. Occurs because (1) employers are not fully aware of all available workers and their job qualifications and (2) available workers are not fully aware of the jobs being offered by employers.

B. Structural unemployment 1. Imperfect matchup of employee skills and the skill demands of available jobs.

2. Reflects structural and demographic characteristics of labor market.

C. Cyclical unemployment 1. Reflects business cycle conditions 2. When there is a general downturn in business activity, cyclical unemployment increases.

IV. Full Employment and the Natural Rate of Unemployment A. The concept of full employment 1. Level of employment that results when the rate of unemployment is normal, considering both frictional and structural factors.

2. Closely related to the concept of the natural rate of unemployment.

3. The natural rate of unemployment is the amount of unemployment that reflects this job shopping in a world of imperfect information and dynamic change.

4. The natural rate of unemployment is neither a temporary high nor a temporary low; it is a rate that is both achievable and sustainable into the future. It is the rate of unemployment accompanying the economy s ―maximum sustainable rate of output.‖

5. Natural rate of unemployment is influenced by both demographic factors (e. g., youthful workers as a share of the labor force) and public policy (e. g., generous unemployment benefits) 6. The actual rate rises above the natural rate during a recession and falls below the natural rate during an economic boom.

7. The unemployment rates of major European countries were substantially higher in the last decade than the comparable figures for the United States and Japan.

V. Actual and Potential GDP A. Potential output: maximum sustainable output level consistent with the economy‘s resource base, given its institutional arrangements.

B. Actual and potential output will be equal when economy is at full employment.

VI. The Effects of Inflation A. Inflation is a sustained general rise in the level of prices. High rates of inflation are almost always associated with substantial year-to-year swings in the inflation rate.

B. Anticipated and unanticipated inflation 1. Unanticipated inflation: an increase in the price level that comes as a surprise, at least to most individuals.

2. Anticipated inflation: a change in the price level that is widely expected.

C. Harmful effects of high and variable rates of inflation 1. Because unanticipated inflation alters the outcomes of long-term projects like the purchase of a machine or operation of a business, it will increase the risks and retard the level of such productive activities.

2. Inflation distorts the information delivered by prices.

3. People will respond to high and variable rates of inflation by spending less time producing and more time trying to protect their wealth and income from the uncertainties created by the inflation.

D. What causes inflation?

1. Nearly all economists believe that rapid expansion in the supply of money is the cause of inflation.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  What is a business cycle? How much economic instability has the United States experienced?  Why do economies experience unemployment? Are some types of unemployment worse than others?  What do economists mean by full employment? How is full employment related to the natural rate of unemployment?  How are anticipated and unanticipated inflation different? What are some of the dangers that accompany inflation?

CONTEXT

This chapter is designed as an overview of the material that will be discussed in the subsequent chapters and introduces the student to several important economic issues. The business cycle is defined and related to real-world economic indicators. The cost of obtaining information, economic uncertainty, and inadequate aggregate demand are presented as factors contributing to real-world unemployment. The concepts of ―full employment‖ and, its flip side, the ―natural rate of unemployment,‖ highlight the macroeconomic supply factors that constrain our ability to produce goods and services. Inflation is also defined and its effects are analyzed from an economic viewpoint. The chapter should whet the reader‘s appetite for the body of the macro material, which focuses on the general issues of unemployment, economic instability, and inflation.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

Carefully define the four phases of the business cycle. This is a good place to provide an historical overview of economic instability, including the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the sluggish economic climate of the last decade.

2.

Discuss the data of Exhibit 3. This table will help students understand the various categories of employment and unemployment. The Monthly Labor Review provides the data to update Exhibit three if you choose.

3.

Many students have the idea that all unemployment is indicative of economic inefficiency.

The myth on this topic would be an excellent focus for a class discussion that would clarify student thinking in this area.

4.

The term full employment is troublesome to both laypersons and professionals. Students sometimes think it cannot be attained unless everyone is working. Point out that economists use the term when referring to the level of employment associated with normal operation of dynamic labor markets.

5.

Of course, full employment incorporates the idea that at a given time there is a natural rate of unemployment consistent with dynamic change, institutions, and the characteristics of the labor force. It is important to note that the natural rate of unemployment is influenced by public policy. If public policy reduces the cost of remaining unemployed, more people will choose to continue searching for a better job. Thus, the natural unemployment rate is not a fixed rate determined immutably by nature.

6.

Students are interested in how the unemployment rate is derived—how many households are sampled; what determines whether a person is classified as employed or unemployed; and oddities that result from the classification procedures. The boxed feature on the measurement of unemployment deals with these issues. Critical Analysis question three will also enhance student understanding of this issue. This is an important issue in that even a change in the wording of the question ―keeping house or something else‖ (sometimes asked of women) to ―working or something else‖ can appreciably change the measured unemployment rate.

7.

As the result of the ambiguities associated with the rate of unemployment, economists increasingly have felt the need to supplement unemployment data with data on the rate of employment. The rate of employment (the percentage of the total non-institutional population, age 16 and over, that is employed) is measured more readily and involves fewer

subjective judgments about a person‘s employment status. Today‘s student should be introduced to both the rate of unemployment and the rate of employment. This is especially so since employment and unemployment rates can move the same direction, as in the 1980s.

8.

Students (among others) often forget that inflation influences money earnings as well as prices. If the rate of inflation in 1980 had been two percent (rather than approximately 12 percent), the real income of individuals would not have increased by 10 percent. Inflation pushes up money earnings, but not necessarily real earnings. Question 13 provides a focal point for discussion of the issue.

9.

The social costs of inflation stem largely from the uncertainty that it generates. Be sure to bring out how uncertainty about future rates of inflation makes long-term contractual agreement riskier.

10. Be careful not to argue that inflation necessarily benefits debtors at the expense of creditors.

This would be true only if the inflation were not fully anticipated.

11. It is useful to stress that the natural rate of unemployment or ―full employment‖ is a benchmark representing the maximum sustainable level of real output. In turn, the output associated with the natural rate of unemployment represents the long-run aggregate supply benchmark. While the full employment rate of output can be temporarily exceeded, the higher level of output cannot be sustained. A good analogy of output that is temporarily greater than the rate that is sustainable with which students can readily identify is finals week. During finals week, students temporarily study far harder than they are willing to do on a sustainable basis throughout the term.

12. A humorous way to introduce discussion of issues such as discouraged workers and how the typically reported unemployment data masks some very important information is to propose the following ―solution‖ to high unemployment in class: hire people like Danny DeVito and Don Rickles to go berate those in the unemployment compensation lines about how they are losers, and that they‘ll never find a job. To the extent that they succeed in discouraging workers into stopping their search for work, the unemployment rate will decline. Then pose the following questions: Does the lower unemployment rate indicate that society is better off? Will output increase? Is the unemployment rate a good indicator of labor market conditions? Why or why not?

13. It is worth emphasizing here that macroeconomic issues are not about statistical data but are all social coordination issues, where coordination failures lead to adverse consequences for real people (e.g., correlations between unemployment and domestic violence, suicides, alcoholism, etc.). We are not concerned with statistical data per se, but with the costs to people that those data represent. Just because the analysis relies on statistics does not mean it is solely about statistics.

14. Activities 1 to 4 in the next section will help reinforce the material in Chapter 8.

ACTIVITIES 8.1 Who’s Unemployed?

Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class assignment unemployment categories Chapter 8: Economic Fluctuations, Unemployment, and Inflation none 5 minutes works in any size class

Purpose This assignment helps familiarize students with labor force statistics.

Instructions Ask the students to classify each of the following individuals in one of the following categories: employed, unemployed, not in the labor force.

Amari worked forty hours last week in a Music Supply store.

Last week, Cara worked 10 hours as a computer programmer for the National Video Company and attended night classes at the local college. She would prefer a full-time job.

Dhruv lost his job at the R-Gone Manufacturing Company. Since then he has been trying to find a job at other local factories.

Blanca is a homemaker. Last week she was occupied with her normal household chores. She neither held a job nor looked for a job. Blanca‘s father is unable to work.

Achyuta has a Ph.D. He works full-time but doesn‘t like his job as a dishwasher. He has applied for jobs with three companies and five universities. As soon as he gets an offer, he‘ll quit his current job.

Ashwntae has been out of work for a full year. She would take a job if it was offered, but no local companies are hiring. She is not actively searching for work.

Common answers and points for discussion Amari, Cara, and Achyuta are employed.

Dhruv is unemployed.

Blanca, Blanca‘s father, and Ashwantae are not in the labor force.

This assignment can also be used to discuss measurement problems such as underemployment (Blanca & Achyuta are examples) and discouraged workers (Ashwantae provides an example).

8.2 The Inflation Fairy Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class demonstration inflation Chapter 8: Economic Fluctuations, Unemployment, and Inflation none 10 minutes works in any size class

Purpose This activity demonstrates the effects of inflation.

Instructions Ask the class to consider the effect of an overnight doubling of prices.

Tell them everything doubled in price while they slept. A soft drink that sold for a dollar, now sells for two dollars; a car that sold for $20,000 now sells for $40,000.

The price of labor doubled as well, so a job paying $6 an hour, now pays $12; a $30,000 annual salary becomes a $60,000 annual salary.

The value of all assets doubled as well. Stock prices are twice what they were at yesterday‘s closing. A thousand-dollar bond becomes a two thousand dollar bond. A $35 balance in a checking account become $70, and so on.

Debts have also doubled. The $5 borrowed from a roommate becomes $10. The $3000 in student loans becomes $6000. A $75,000 home mortgage becomes a $150,000 mortgage.

And even cash balances double. The inflation fairy sneaks in at night and replaces the $10 bill in their wallet with a new $20 bill. The inflation fairy even doubles the coins in their penny jars.

If the prices of everything doubled overnight, what would happen?

Points for discussion If the prices of everything doubled overnight, what would happen: NOTHING! If all prices adjusted perfectly there would be no real effect. Everyone would have exactly the same purchasing power. They have twice as much money but everything costs twice as much.

There have been no relative changes in price.

This is a fantastic rate of inflation: 100% daily. Prices would increase over a billion-fold in a month at this rate of price change. Yet, if everything adjusts perfectly there will be no real effect on the economy.

The problem, of course, is there is no inflation fairy, insuring that everything adjusts smoothly.

Some prices adjust quickly and others don‘t.

Cash balances wouldn‘t double without the inflation fairy, so people wouldn‘t be willing to hold cash or accept cash in payment. This would increase transaction costs considerably.

If prices don‘t change at the same rate there will be winners and losers from inflation. For example, if everything doubled in price overnight except debt then borrowers would see the real value of their loan payments halved. Borrowers would win and lenders would lose. If the overnight inflation is an ongoing process, everyone would try to borrow, but no one would be willing to lend. Credit markets would collapse.

More generally, anyone whose income does not keep up with inflation will lose. Anyone whose costs rise less than inflation will come out ahead.

Other problems can be introduced here: bracket creep, increased uncertainty, weakening of price signals, shoe leather costs, menu costs, and so on.

Much of the problem with inflation is distributional, but there are real consequences as well. Time spent worrying about inflation, or profiting from inflation, is a diversion of resources away from productive activity.

8.3 Changes in a Student Price Index Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials needed: Class limitations:

Take-home assignment inflation Chapter 8: Economic Fluctuations, Unemployment, and Inflation Initial prices for a market basket (see Activity 1 for Chapter 7) works in any size class

Purpose This assignment looks at how prices for a small market basket of goods change during the school term. These price changes can be related to the overall rate of inflation. The importance of the choice of market basket is also illustrated.

Instructions A month after collecting the Price Index Assignment (Activity 1 for Chapter 7), ask the students to return to the stores and find the current prices for the same bundle of products.

Points for discussion Typically some market baskets experience price increases, others decrease and some prices will be unchanged. Students typically pick goods with volatile prices, such as food or gasoline. These sectors typically change faster than the overall market basket used in the CPI. The large variation in student responses emphasizes the importance of market basket selection.

Different market baskets will result in different measures of inflation.

Name

Course Price Index Assignment II

Changes in the Consumer Price Index are a widely used measure of inflation.

Use your personalized student price index to calculate how prices have changed.

1. Use the same products and the same quantities at the same retail outlet.

2. Find the new price for each product.

3. Calculate the total cost of buying these products at their current prices.

4. Calculate the percentage change in price for the entire market basket.

8.4 Prices and Time Type: Topics: Textbook: Class limitations:

Take-home assignment Inflation Chapter 8: Economic Fluctuations, Unemployment, and Inflation works in any size class

Purpose This assignment looks at how prices change over a long period of time. These price changes can be related to the overall rate of inflation.

Instructions This assignment asks students to compare prices in the year they were born to current prices for the same goods.

Points for discussion Inflation makes comparisons of prices across long periods of time difficult. Old nominal prices may look very low, but nominal wares were low as well.

Price indices can be used to calculate real prices, but product changes over time introduce inaccuracies. Many products are not the same 20 years later. Quality change and technological advances make comparisons more difficult. This can lead to a discussion of the proposed changes in the Consumer Price Index.

Since the minimum wage is not indexed to inflation, its purchasing power can drop significantly between legislated increases. This can be used to introduce indexing or to introduce a discussion of equity.

Name

Course

Date of Birth Prices and Time Part I. Historic Prices 1. Find the prices for 5 (or more) products in the year you were born. Be as specific as possible regarding brand names and quantities. Archived newspapers and magazines are good places to find prices from that long ago. (These are frequently stored on microfilm at libraries.)

2. What was the federal minimum wage, when you were born?

Part II Current Prices 1. Find the current price for each of the products in Part I. 2. What is the federal minimum wage now?

Part III. Comparisons 1. Do you think there has been a change in the quality of any of these products over this time period?

2. How has technological change affected these products?

3. Calculate the percentage change in price for each good over this time period.

4. Calculate the percentage change in the minimum wage.

5. What has happened to the purchasing power of people earning the minimum wage?

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 3.

(a), (b), and (c) are unemployed; (d) is not in the labor force; and (e) and (f) are employed.

4.

Full employment is the maximum level of employment that is both achievable and sustainable in the future given the dynamic change and structural conditions of the economy.

When full employment is present, the actual and natural rates of unemployment are equal.

12. a.

Year 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2019

Presidential Salary $75,00 0 $75,00 0 $100,0 00 $200,0 00 $400,0 00 $400,0 00

CPI (2000=100) 11.6 8.1 17.2 47.9 100.0 153.5

Presidential Salary ($2000) $646,552 $925,926 $581,395 $417,537 $400,000 $260,586

b. Highest salary was in 1940 and the lowest in 2019.

13. The opportunity cost of job search for laid-off workers will drop since unemployment benefits will replace 100 percent of worker‘s prior earnings. Other things the same, this lower opportunity cost of job search will result in more lengthy periods of search and higher rates of unemployment.

14. (306-300)/300 = 2.00%

16. a. and b.

Table A Nominal GDP (Billions of Local Currency Units)

GDP Deflator (2010=100)

Real GDP (In 2010 Currency Units)

Inflation Rate

Country

2017

2018

2017

2018

2017

2018

2018

United States

19,519.42

20,580.20

112.2

114.9

17,396.99

17,911.40

2.41%

Canada

2,141.50

2,219.10

111.0

112.9

1,929.28

1,965.54

1.71%

Japan

545,897.40

547,125.50

101.1

101.0

539,957.86

541,708.42

-0.10%

Italy

1,736.60

1,766.20

107.5

109.2

1,615.44

1,617.40

1.58%

Australia Germany

1,807.90 3,245.00

1,897.00 3,344.40

110.1 110.8

112.3 113.2

1,642.05 2,928.70

1,689.23 2,954.42

2.00% 2.17%

d. The highest growth rate of real GDP was for the United States and the lowest was for Italy. e. The United States had the highest inflation rate and Japan the lowest. f. The United States had the highest inflation.

Chapter 9 An Introduction to Basic Macroeconomic Markets OUTLINE I. Understanding Macroeconomics: Our Game Plan A. As a basic macroeconomic model is developed, we will have some assumptions.

1. The money supply is constant.

2. Taxes and expenditures are constant.

B. Thus, there is a circular flow of output and income between these two key sectors: businesses and households.

II. Four Key Markets—Resources, Goods and Services, Loanable Funds, and Foreign Exchange Markets A. Resource market: Highly aggregated market where business firms demand resources because of their contribution to the production of goods and services; households supply labor and other resources in exchange for income.

B. Goods and services market: In this market, businesses supply goods and services in exchange for sales revenue. Households, investors, governments, and foreigners (net exports) demand goods.

C. Loanable funds market: Coordinates the actions of borrowers and lenders.

D. Foreign exchange market: Coordinates the actions of Americans demanding foreign currency in order to buy things from foreigners and foreigners supplying foreign currencies in exchange for dollars so they can buy things from Americans.

III. Aggregate Demand for Goods and Services A. Aggregate demand (AD) curve indicates the various quantities of domestically produced goods and services that purchasers are willing to buy at different price levels.

B. AD curve slopes downward to the right, indicating an inverse relationship between the amount of goods and services demanded and the price level.

C. Why does the aggregate demand curve slope downward?

1. A lower price level will increase the purchasing power of the fixed quantity of money.

2. The interest rate effect: a lower price level will reduce the demand for money and lower the real interest rate, which will stimulate additional purchases during the current period.

3. Other things constant, a lower price level will make domestically produced goods less expensive relative to foreign goods.

IV. Aggregate Supply of Goods and Services A. When considering the AS curve, it is important to distinguish between the short run and the long run.

1. Short run: time period during which some prices, particularly those in labor markets, are set by prior contracts and agreements. Therefore, in the short run, households and businesses are unable to adjust these prices when unexpected changes occur, including unexpected changes in the price level.

2. Long run: a time period of sufficient duration that people have the opportunity to modify their behavior in response to price changes.

B. Short-run aggregate supply (SRAS) 1. Indicates the various quantities of goods and services that domestic firms will supply in response to changing demand conditions that alter the level of prices in the goods and services market.

2. SRAS curve slopes upward to the right.

3. The upward slope reflects the fact that in the short run an unanticipated increase in the price level will improve the profitability of firms. They will respond with an expansion in output.

C. Long-run aggregate supply (LRAS) 1. Indicates the relationship between the price level and quantity of output after decision makers have had sufficient time to adjust their prior commitments where possible.

2. LRAS curve is vertical.

3. LRAS is related to the economy‘s production possibilities constraint. A higher price level does not loosen the constraints imposed by the economy‘s resource base, level of technology, and the efficiency of its institutional arrangements.

V. Equilibrium in the Goods and Services Market A. Equilibrium in the short run

1. Short-run equilibrium is present in the goods and services market at the price level (P) where the aggregate quantity demanded is equal to the aggregate quantity supplied.

2. Occurs at the output rate where the AD and SRAS curves intersect.

3. At the market-clearing price, the amount that buyers want to purchase is just equal to the quantity that sellers are willing to supply during the current period.

B. Equilibrium in the long run 1. A second condition is required for long-run equilibrium: the buyers and sellers must have correctly anticipated the consequences of their prior choices.

2. Thus, long-run equilibrium requires that decision makers who agreed to long-term contracts influencing current prices and costs must have correctly anticipated the current price level at the time they arrived at the agreements. If this is not the case, buyers and sellers will want to modify the agreements when the long-term contracts expire.

C. Long-run equilibrium, potential output, and full employment 1. Potential GDP is equal to the economy‘s maximum sustainable output consistent with its resource base, current technology, and institutional structure.

2. Economy is operating at full employment.

3. Actual Rate of Unemployment = natural rate of unemployment.

D. What happens when the economy‘s output differs from its long-run potential?

1. An unexpected change in the price level (rate of inflation) will alter the rate of output in the short run.

2. An unexpected increase in the price level will stimulate output and employment during the next year or two.

3. An unexpected decline in the price level will cause output and employment to fall in the immediate future.

VI. Resource Market A. The demand for resources: Business firms demand resources because they contribute to the production of goods the firm expects to sell at a profit.

B. The demand for resources slopes downward to the right.

C. The supply of resources: households supply resources in exchange for income.

D. Higher wages increase the incentive to supply resources; thus, supply curve slopes upward to the right.

E. The equilibrium or market-clearing price brings the amount demanded by business firms into balance with the amount supplied by resource owners.

VII. Loanable Funds Market A. Interest rate coordinates the actions of borrowers and lenders.

B. From the borrower‘s viewpoint, interest is the cost paid for earlier availability. From the lender‘s viewpoint, interest is a premium received for waiting, for delaying possible expenditures into the future.

C. Money and real interest rate 1. When the inflation rate is anticipated, lenders will demand (and borrowers will agree to pay) a higher money interest rate to compensate for the decline in the purchasing power of the dollar.

2. This premium for the expected decline in purchasing power of the dollar is called the inflation premium.

D. Real interest rate = Money interest rate – Inflation premium VIII. Foreign Exchange Market A. When Americans buy from foreigners and make investments abroad (an outflow of capital), their actions will generate a demand for foreign currency in the foreign exchange market.

B. On the other hand, when Americans sell products and assets (including bonds) to foreigners, the transactions will generate a supply of foreign currency (in exchange for dollars) in the foreign exchange market.

C. The exchange rate will bring the quantity of foreign exchange demanded into equality with the quantity supplied.

IX. Long-Run Equilibrium A. Macroeconomic equilibrium requires that equilibrium be achieved in all four key macroeconomic markets and that they be in harmony with one another.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  What is the circular flow of income? What are the major markets that coordinate macroeconomic activities?  Why is an increase in the price level likely to expand output in the short run, but not in the long run?  What determines the equilibrium level of GDP of an economy? When equilibrium is present, how will the actual rate of unemployment compare with the natural rate?  What is the difference between the real interest rate and the money interest rate? Does inflation help borrowers relative to lenders?  What determines the foreign exchange rate? What is the relationship between the inflow of capital and the trade deficit?

CONTEXT This chapter presents the basic model that will be utilized throughout the macroeconomics section of the text. The model consists of three basic, interrelated markets: (1) goods and services, (2) resources, and (3) loanable funds. In contrast with the analysis of Chapter 3, the basic markets of our macroeconomic model are highly aggregated. Nonetheless, prices in these aggregated markets influence the choices of buyers and sellers.

In this chapter we (a) explain the general characteristics of demand and supply in the three basic markets and (b) introduce the concept of macroeconomic equilibrium. The following chapter will focus on the workings of our simple model—that is, how the markets adjust to changing conditions.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING TIPS

1.

The circular flow diagram of Exhibit 1 illustrates the three basic macroeconomic markets.

Use this exhibit to explain the forces contributing to demand and supply in the resources, loanable funds, goods and services, and foreign exchange markets.

2.

Initially, we make two important assumptions as the basic macroeconomic model is developed. First, we assume that government expenditure and taxation policies are unchanged. This assumption is relaxed in Chapters 11 and 12 on fiscal policy. Second, the money supply is assumed to be constant. This assumption is relaxed in Chapter 14 on monetary policy. Be sure to remind your students of these two important assumptions.

3.

Of course, the aggregate demand curve is inversely related to price (the price level) for different reasons than the inverse relationship between amount demanded and price in a narrowly defined market. The Thumbnail Sketch summarizes the reasons why the aggregate demand curve slopes downward to the right.

4.

When discussing saving and the supply of loanable funds, be sure to emphasize that saving is a flow concept—current income that is not spent on consumption. Point out that saving (without the ―s‖) is not the same thing as savings, a stock concept.

5.

Other things constant, an increase in the price level in the goods and services market will (a) improve profit margins since many components of costs are temporarily fixed and (b) lead many producers to believe that the demand for their product has increased. These two factors will result in a short-run aggregate supply curve that slopes upward to the right as Exhibit 3 illustrates.

6.

In the long run, output is constrained by the economy‘s resource base and the level of technology. Since a higher price level does not loosen these restraints, the long-run aggregate supply curve is vertical.

7.

Be sure to link the concepts of long-run aggregate supply and the natural rate of unemployment (sustainable level of employment).

8.

Go over Exhibit 5 carefully making sure students understand that long-run equilibrium in the goods and services market requires both (a) a balance between aggregate demand and aggregate supply and (b) an actual price level equal to the price level expected by buyers and sellers.

9.

Students have difficulty understanding the connection between interest rates and bond prices.

A brief discussion of the boxed feature ―Bonds, Interest Rates, and Bond Prices‖ will enhance student understanding of this issue.

10. A useful way of reinforcing the relationship between bond prices and interest rates is with a mountain climbing analogy: To reach a given peak (promised future payment on a bond, the higher your current elevation (present bond price), the less rapidly one has to climb (the smaller the implied rate of interest being compounded).

11. It is worth emphasizing that aggregate supply and demand analysis reflects the generally different speeds of adjustment in different macroeconomic markets. Financial markets tend to adjust most quickly, followed by product markets (both of which are assumed to adjust in the short run), followed by factor markets (whose ultimate adjustment is indicated by the

movement from the short-run equilibrium to the long-run aggregate supply curve). On the other hand, with supply shocks, it is input price changes that begin the analysis.

12. To help cement student understanding of why the long-run aggregate supply curve is vertical with respect to the price level, it is often useful to ask them whether a law halving the official length of an inch would affect behavior, once people had time to adjust to the change. They will quickly see that no effects would arise because no ―real‖ relationships will have been changed. Similarly, you show students that a doubling of all prices (a halving of the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services), once people have adjusted, will not change any relative price relationships; since no incentives will have changed as a result, there is no reason to expect a change in the sustainable level of real output (the natural level of real output).

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 2. In the long run, the major factors influencing aggregate supply are: (1) the size of the resource base, (2) technology, and (3) the institutional arrangements of the economy. The long-run aggregate supply curve is vertical because the production possibilities of the economy are constrained, assuming a given resource base, level of technology, and institutional organization of an economy. In effect, the LRAS reflects the underlying production possibilities of the economy.

8.

When the price level is higher than decision makers had anticipated, real wages will be lower and the level of employment higher than would have been the case if the price level had been anticipated accurately. Profit margins will increase; the actual rate of unemployment will fall below the natural rate. The high current rate of output will not be sustainable because real wages will rise as there is opportunity to renegotiate existing contracts.

9.

4 percent; it will fall to 1 percent.

13. Americans demand foreign currencies to pay for goods and services they import and investments they make abroad. Foreigners supply foreign currency in exchange for U.S. dollars in order to purchase American exports and make investments in the United States.

The exchange rate will bring the quantity demanded into balance with the quantity supplied.

This will also bring imports plus capital outflow into equality with exports plus capital inflow.

A rise in the foreign exchange will lower the price of imports and raise the price of exports.

As a result, net exports will fall.

14. A trade deficit occurs when a nation‘s imports exceeds its exports. When a trade deficit is present, there must be an inflow of capital.

Are trade deficits bad? Trade deficits imply that a nation is borrowing financial capital from foreigners. Thus, this question is a little like asking if it is bad to borrow. The answer depends on how the funds are used. If the borrowing (inflow of capital) is channeled into productive investments, it will increase the productivity of Americans and lead to higher future income.

When an economy provides an attractive investment environment, an inflow of capital and a trade deficit are likely to occur. Trade deficits arising from this source are not bad. However,

if borrowing from foreigners is used unproductively or to increase current consumption, it will reduce future income.

Chapter 10 Dynamic Change, Economic Fluctuations, and the AD-AS Model OUTLINE I. Anticipated and Unanticipated Changes A. Anticipated changes are foreseen by economic participants. Decision makers have time to adjust to them before they occur.

B. Unanticipated changes catch people by surprise.

II. Factors That Shift Aggregate Demand A. An increase (decrease) in real wealth B. A decrease in the real rate of interest C. An increase in the optimism (pessimism) of businesses and consumers about the future economic conditions D. An increase (decline) in the expected rate of inflation E. Higher (lower) real incomes abroad F. A reduction (increase) in the exchange rate value of the nation‘s currency.

III. Shifts in Aggregate Supply A. Changes in Long-Run Aggregate Supply (LRAS) 1. An increase (decrease) in the supply resources.

2. An improvement (deterioration) in technology and productivity.

3. Institutional changes that increase (reduce) the efficiency of resource use.

B. Changes in Short-Run Aggregate Supply (SRAS) 1. A decrease (increase) in resource prices—that is, production costs.

2. A reduction (increase) in the expected rate of inflation.

3. Favorable (unfavorable) supply shocks, such as good (bad) weather or a reduction (increase) in the world price of an important resource.

IV. Steady Economic Growth and Anticipated Changes in Long-Run Aggregate Supply A. Increases in LRAS will make it possible to produce and sustain a larger rate of output.

B. Both LRAS and SRAS will shift to the right and output will increase.

C. These changes generally take place slowly and therefore they need not disrupt long-run equilibrium.

V. Unanticipated Changes and Market Adjustments A. In the short run, output will deviate from full employment capacity when prices in the goods and services market deviate from the price level that people expected.

B. Impact of unanticipated increases in aggregate demand

1. Initially, the strong demand and higher price level in the goods and services market will temporarily improve profit margins.

2. Output will increase, the rate of unemployment will drop below the natural rate and output will temporarily exceed the economy‘s long-run potential.

3. With time, however, contracts will be modified and resource prices will rise and return to their competitive relation with product prices.

4. Once this happens, output will recede to the economy‘s long-run potential.

C. Impact of unanticipated reductions in aggregate demand 1. Weak demand and lower prices in the goods and services market will reduce profit margins. Many firms will incur losses.

2. Firms will reduce output; the rate of unemployment will rise above the natural rate and output will temporarily fall short of the economy‘s long-run potential.

3. With time, long-term contracts will be modified. Eventually, lower resource prices and interest rates will direct the economy back to long-run equilibrium: but this may be a lengthy and painful process.

D. Impact of an unanticipated increase in SRAS 1. SRAS shifts to the right—temporarily output will exceed the economy‘s long-run potential.

2. Since the temporarily favorable supply conditions cannot be counted on in the future, the economy‘s long-term production capacity will not be altered.

3. Recognizing that they will be unable to maintain their current high level of income, individuals will generally save a substantial portion of it for use at a future time that is not nearly so prosperous.

4. The increased saving will reduce interest rates, which will encourage investment (capital formation).

E. Impact of unanticipated reductions in SRAS 1. If an unfavorable supply shock is expected to be temporary, long-run aggregate supply will be unaffected.

2. Households will reduce their current saving level (and dip into past savings) to maintain a current consumption level more consistent with their longer-term perceived opportunities.

3. The reduction in saving will lead to higher real interest rates and retard current investment.

VI. Price Level, Inflation, and the AD-AS Model A. Once decision makers anticipate a given rate of inflation and build it into long-term contracts, an actual rate of inflation that is less than expected is essentially the equivalent of a reduction in the price level when price stability (zero inflation) is anticipated.

B. Similarly, the impact of an inflation rate that is greater than was anticipated will be like that of an increase in the price level when price stability is anticipated.

VII. Unanticipated Changes, Recessions, and Booms A. There are two forces that underlie the self-corrective mechanism of macro markets:

1. Changes in real resource prices will help direct an economy toward equilibrium.

Real resource prices will tend to fall during a recession and rise during an economic expansion.

2. Changes in real interest rates help stabilize aggregate demand and redirect economic fluctuations. Interest rates will tend to fall during a recession and rise during and economic boom.

B. Expansions and Recessions: the Historical Record 1. During the past six decades, economic expansions have been far more lengthy than recessions.

2. The depth and severity of the recession that started in December 2007 highlights the issue of economic instability and recovery from a recession.

C. Using the AD-AS Model to Think about the Business Cycle and the Great Recession of 2008–2009 1. Between 2002 and mid-year 2006, housing prices rose by almost 90%. Stock prices also rose rapidly. As a result, wealth expanded and AD increased, leading to an economic boom.

2. But the situation changed in the second half of 2006. Housing prices began to fall.

Both mortgage default and housing foreclosure rates increased. This reduced aggregate demand.

3. Beginning in October 2007, stock prices fell and they plunged during 2008. This also reduced wealth and AD. 4. During 2007 and the first half of 2008, crude oil and other energy prices soared, and this generated an unanticipated reduction in SRAS. 5. These forces led to a sharp reduction in consumer and investor confidence, further reducing AD. 6. The reductions in both AD and SRAS reduced output and employment just as the AD-AS model implies.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  What factors change aggregate demand? What factors change aggregate supply?  How will an economy adjust to unanticipated changes in aggregate demand? How will it adjust to unanticipated changes in aggregate supply?  What causes recessions and booms?  When an economy is in a recession, will market forces help direct it back to full employment? If so, how rapidly will this adjustment process work?  What does the AD–AS model reveal about the Great Recession of 2008–2009?

CONTEXT This chapter focuses on how the three-market macroeconomic model adjusts in response to economic change. The major factors that shift the aggregate demand and aggregate supply schedules are analyzed. The secondary effects of an economic change in one market are traced into other markets. The chapter also explains why it is important to distinguish between unanticipated and anticipated events.

The chapter also outlines the basic framework of the Keynesian model. It focuses on the role on the multiplier and its role in the Keynesian view of economic instability. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the evolution of the modern view of economic instability.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

Throughout this chapter we continue to assume that the government‘s expenditure, tax, and monetary policies are unchanged. Remind students of these key assumptions, and inform them that they will be relaxed as we proceed. However, in this chapter our focus is on how macroeconomic markets work, rather than economic policy.

2.

The initial section of this chapter outlines the primary factors that shift the aggregate demand schedule. The Thumbnail Sketch summarizes these points. Make sure students understand why changes in: (a) real wealth; (b) real interest rates; (c) business expectations; (d) the expected rate of inflation; (e) real incomes abroad; and (f) exchange rates shift aggregate demand in the goods and services market.

3.

The long-run aggregate supply constraint of our model is based on the concept of the economy‘s production possibilities curve. The same factors that cause the economy‘s production possibilities curve to shift will also cause a shift in long-run aggregate supply.

This is a good time to have students review the material in Chapter two on the production possibilities curve.

4.

Be sure to stress that short-run aggregate supply can change temporarily without a change in the economy‘s long-run production capacity. Supply shocks and changes in the expected rate of inflation are the primary sources of shifts in the SRAS curve that do not alter LRAS.

5.

The Thumbnail Sketch summarizes the major factors that cause shifts in the long-run and short-run aggregate supply curves. Review these factors, making sure students understand why the changes alter aggregate supply.

6.

Since the fiscal and monetary policies are unchanged, economic growth will shift both the long-run and short-run aggregate supply curves to the right and lead to a lower price (level) in the goods and services market. See Exhibit 3. However, be sure to note that monetary policy had in fact been expansionary during economic growth of this sort. The logic is no different; expansionary monetary policy just needs to be factored in as well as increases in LRAS.

7.

The distinction between anticipated and unanticipated economic changes is central to modern economic analysis. Use illustrations to stress how behavior varies depending on whether an event is anticipated or unanticipated. For example, you might note that when thunderstorms routinely blow up every summer afternoon in an area, local residents anticipate the storm and typically carry an umbrella when they plan to be outside. In contrast, in areas where afternoon summer storms are a sporadic event, people often get caught without umbrellas.

Similarly, a cold winter night in Montana fails to catch people by surprise. In contrast, a similar (but unanticipated) cold night in Florida may find many people with inadequate clothing or heating. Illustrations of this type will drive home that it makes a difference whether events are anticipated of unanticipated.

8.

Be sure to go over the impact of an unanticipated increase and decrease in aggregate demand.

Exhibits 5 and 6 of the text cover these topics.

9.

When current output exceeds the economy‘s full employment (long-run) capacity, the strong demand will push up resource prices. The higher resource prices will shift SRAS to the left and cause output to return to its long-run level. In contrast, when current output is less than the economy‘s long-run capacity, weak demand will place downward pressure on resource prices. In turn, lower resource prices will expand SRAS and direct the economy to its full employment rate of output (and natural rate of unemployment). Use Exhibits 7 and 8 to consider the adjustment of macroeconomic markets when disequilibrium is present.

10. Critical Analysis questions 1 and 2 will enhance student understanding of the major factors that affect aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Critical Analysis question 6 focuses on why it makes a difference whether decision makers over- or under-estimate the actual rate of inflation.

11. In talking about the effects of supply-side incentives on the long-run aggregate supply curve, it is important to emphasize that supply-side incentives change the ―effective‖ production possibilities curve (determined not only by natural resources, technology, etc., but also by the incentives to make productive use of those resources) by changing long term incentives and institutional arrangements.

12. The difference between an unannounced ―pop quiz‖ and an announced exam will help students grasp the distinction between expected and unexpected macroeconomic changes.

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 3.

An outward shift in the production possibilities curve would shift the long run aggregate supply curve to the right. Improvements in computer technology have shifted the production possibilities curve outward by increasing the productivity of labor and capital. As a result, the long-run aggregate supply curve has shifted to the right.

6.

At the lower-than-expected inflation rate, real wages (and costs) will increase relative to product prices. This will squeeze profit margins and lead to reductions in output and employment, causing the unemployment rate to rise.

7.

A rise in stock prices will tend to increase aggregate demand and thus tend to raise the price level and output in the short run. A reduction in oil prices will increase aggregate supply and thus tend to lower the price level and increase output in the short run. The net effect will be an uncertain effect on the price level and an increase in output

10. The increase in demand for exports will increase aggregate demand. In the short run, this unanticipated expansion in demand will tend to increase output and employment while exerting modest upward pressure on the price level. In the long run, the primary impact will be a higher price level, with no change in output and employment.

11. The graph below shows point E1 as full-employment or long-run equilibrium. The point e2 shows the economy in a boom.

– The graph below shows point E1 as full-employment or long-run equilibrium. The point e2 shows the economy in a recession.

12. a. $4.5 trillion. b. The economy is not in long-run equilibrium because the actual price level is different from the expected price level, entailing further adjustments. c. Unemployment will be below the natural rate. d. Resource prices will rise, shifting SRAS left (up) and pushing output back to the natural level at a higher price level. e. Real GDP is not sustainable at $4.5 trillion; it will tend to fall.

Chapter 11 Fiscal Policy: The Keynesian View

and the Historical Development of Macroeconomics OUTLINE I. The Great Depression, Economic Instability, and the Development of Keynesian Economics A. The Great Depression and Keynesian economics 1. Keynesian economics developed during the Great Depression (1930s).

2. Keynesian theory provided an explanation for the severe and prolonged unemployment of the 1930s.

3. Keynes argued that wages and prices were highly inflexible, particularly in a downward direction. Thus, he did not think changes in prices and interest rates would direct the economy back to full employment.

4. Keynesian view of spending and output a. Keynes argued that spending induced business firms to supply goods and services. Thus, if total spending fell, then business firms would respond by cutting back production. Less spending would thus lead to less output.

B. Output, employment, and Keynesian equilibrium 1. In the Keynesian view, equilibrium takes place when total spending in the economy is equal to current output.

2. Keynesians believe that changes in output rather than changes in prices direct the economy toward equilibrium.

C. The multiplier and economic instability 1. The Multiplier: View that a change in autonomous expenditures investment, for example, generally leads to an even larger change in aggregate income.

2. Spending of one party increases the income of others. Thus, an increase in spending can expand output by a much larger amount.

3. The multiplier is the number by which the initial change in spending is multiplied to obtain the total amplified increase in income. The size of the multiplier increases with the marginal propensity to consume.

D. Adding realism to the multiplier 1. In evaluating the importance of the multiplier, one should remember: a. An increase in government spending will require either higher taxes or additional government borrowing. b. It takes time for the multiplier to work. c. The multiplier effect implies that the additional spending brings idle resources into production without price changes—this is unlikely to be the case during normal times.

2. During normal times, the demand stimulus effect of additional spending is substantially weaker than the multiplier suggests.

E. Keynes and economic instability: A summary 1. According to the Keynesian view, fluctuations in total spending (AD) are the major source of economic instability.

2. Keynesians believe that market economies have a tendency to fluctuate between economic booms driven by excessive demand and recessions resulting from insufficient demand.

3. The multiplier concept magnifies these fluctuations.

II. The Federal Budget and Fiscal Policy A. Budget deficits and surpluses 1. Budget deficit: present when total government spending exceeds total revenue from all sources.

2. Budget surplus: present when total government spending is greater than total revenue.

3. Changes in the size of the federal deficit or surplus are often used to gauge whether fiscal policy is stimulating or restraining demand.

4. Changes in the size of the budget deficit or surplus may arise from either: a. a change in cyclical economic conditions b. a change in discretionary fiscal policy 5. The federal budget is the primary tool of fiscal policy.

6. Discretionary changes in fiscal policy: deliberate changes in government spending and/or taxes designed to affect the size of the budget deficit or surplus.

III. Fiscal Policy and the Good News of Keynesian Economics A. Using the budget to promote stability 1. Keynesian theory highlights the potential of fiscal policy as a tool capable of reducing fluctuations in AD. 2. Prior to the Great Depression, it was widely believed that the government should balance its budget. Keynesians challenged this view. a. Rather than balancing the budget annually, Keynesians argue that countercyclical policy should be used to offset fluctuations in AD. b. This implies that the government should plan budget deficits when the economy is weak and budget surpluses when strong demand threatens to cause inflation.

3. Keynesian policy to combat recession a. When an economy is operating below its potential output, the Keynesian model suggests that fiscal policy should be more expansionary.

4. Keynesian policy to combat inflation a. When inflation is a potential problem, Keynesian analysis suggests fiscal policy should be more restrictive.

B. Fiscal policy changes and problems of timing 1. Various time lags make proper timing of changes in discretionary fiscal policy difficult. Discretionary fiscal policy is like a two-edged sword; it can both harm and help. If timed correctly, it may reduce economic instability. If timed incorrectly, however, it may increase rather than reduce economic instability.

C. Automatic stabilizers 1. Without any new legislative action, they tend to increase the budget deficit (or reduce the surplus) during a recession and increase the surplus (or reduce the deficit) during an economic boom.

2. Examples of automatic stabilizers: a. Unemployment compensation b. Corporate profit tax c. Progressive income tax IV. Saving, Spending, Debt, and the Impact of Fiscal Policy A. The paradox of thrift 1. The idea that when a large number of households increase their saving and reduce consumption, their actions may reduce aggregate consumption and throw the economy into a recession.

2. Keynesians often stress the dangers implied by the paradox of thrift and excessive saving.

3. The paradox of thrift indicates that efforts to save more could reduce the overall demand for goods and services, causing businesses to reduce output and lay off workers.

B. While an increase in consumption might temporarily boost AD, households will face financial troubles if they save little and spend most of what they earn and borrow on current consumption.

C. Even though the incomes of Americans are the highest in history, so too is their financial anxiety.

D. You cannot have a strong and healthy economy when households are heavily indebted and face persistent financial troubles because their saving rate is low.

E. Household debt and the 2008–2009 recession 1. The historically high level of debt meant households were in a weak position to deal with the recession of 2008–2009.

2. As a result of their high debt/income ratio, households were reluctant to spend additional income.

3. Thus the Keynesian tax rebates and federal spending increases of the Bush and Obama administrations were largely ineffective.

4. Even with budget deficits of 10 percent of GDP, output was sluggish and unemployment remained high in 2009–2011.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  How did the Great Depression alter views about the stability of markets? Why did it lead to the development of Keynesian Economics?  Why do Keynesians believe economies experience economic fluctuations?  What is the multiplier? What does it imply about the stability of a market economy?  Is fiscal policy an effective tool with which to promote economic stability and full employment?  Is saving good or bad for an economy? Does a high household debt to income ratio impact the effectiveness of Keynesian fiscal policy?

CONTEXT

This chapter focuses on fiscal policy, one of the two macroeconomic weapons available to policy makers. In recent years, macroeconomists have reevaluated both the potential and limitations of fiscal policy. The impact of fiscal policy is a major point of controversy among macroeconomists.

This chapter presents the Keynesian view and provides an historical perspective of the development of macroeconomics.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

Be sure to clarify the terms ―budget deficit‖ and ―budget surplus.‖

2.

Exhibits 2 and 3 present the Keynesian view of counter-cyclical fiscal policy. As Exhibit 2 illustrates, Keynesians believe that the self-corrective mechanism of a market economy works slowly. Thus, an economy will often operate below its full employment capacity. Given the assumptions of the Keynesian model, expansionary fiscal policy is a potent weapon capable of directing an economy to its full employment output rate more rapidly than market forces.

Similarly, restrictive fiscal policy is capable of restraining aggregate demand, thereby retarding potential inflationary pressures.

3.

Be sure to emphasize that the Keynesian view implies that economic conditions replace the concept of a balanced budget as the measuring rod for the determination of prudent budgetary policy. During a recession, the Keynesian view indicates that a budget deficit is sound policy.

Similarly, Keynesian analysis implies that a budget surplus is appropriate during an inflationary boom.

4.

Critical Analysis question 1 provides both an interesting and useful homework assignment.

The other Critical Analysis questions will help students integrate the basic concepts of this chapter.

5.

Be sure students see that the crucial underlying issue in analyses of the government deficit is ―how well was the money spent?‖ If the resources transferred to government control by a deficit are better spent than they would otherwise have been, the deficit has facilitated an improvement in efficiency (though the question still remains as to whether deficit financing is less costly to society than taxation would be); if those resources are utilized in less-valuable ways, then society is made worse off as a result. (Ask your students how many think the government spends money smarter than they do—you will get interesting answers.) This issue seems to become clearest when you point out that most of the students in the class are currently running deficits, but those deficits do not make them worse off as long as the resources are being invested in human capital worth more than the cost of borrowing them.

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 4. A budget deficit is a situation in which total government spending exceeds total government revenue during a specific time period, usually one year. When this happens, the government must borrow funds to finance the excess of its spending relative to revenue. It borrows by issuing interest-bearing bonds that become part of the national debt .Keynesian believe that increased budget deficits due to increased government spending will directly increase aggregate demand. If the increased budget deficit is due to reduced taxes, aggregate demand will increase due to increased consumption (if personal income taxes are lowered) or business investment (if business taxes are lowered).

10. Keynesians would favor the sending of checks to households that were financed by debt.

Most Keynesians believe the market-adjustment method of lower resource prices to increase aggregate supply back to full employment will be slow and uncertain. Keynesians argue that that sending the checks would increase consumption and thus increase aggregate demand.

This expansionary fiscal policy would guide the economy to full employment.

12. Rather than balancing the budget annually, Keynesians believe that fiscal policy should reflect business cycle conditions. During a recession, fiscal policy should become more expansionary (a larger deficit should be run). During an inflationary boom, fiscal policy should become more restrictive (shift toward a budget surplus).

Chapter 12 Fiscal Policy, Incentives, and Secondary Effects OUTLINE I. Fiscal Policy, Borrowing, and the Crowding-Out Effect A. Crowding-out effect indicates that the increased borrowing to finance a budget deficit will increase real interest rates and thereby retard private spending. Thus, fiscal policy is not very potent.

B. The implications of the crowding-out analysis are symmetrical. Restrictive fiscal policy will reduce real interest rates and ―crowd in‖ private spending.

C. Crowding-out effect in an open economy: Larger budget deficits and higher real interest rates may also lead to an inflow of capital, appreciation in the dollar, and a decline in net exports.

II. Fiscal Policy, Future Taxes, and the New Classical Model A. New classical economists stress that debt financing merely substitutes higher future taxes for lower current taxes. Thus, budget deficits affect the timing of taxes, but not their magnitude.

B. Ricardian equivalence: a tax reduction financed with government debt will exert no effect on current consumption and aggregate demand because people will fully recognize the higher future taxes implied by additional debt.

C. Similarly, the real interest rate is unaffected by deficits since people will save more in order to pay the higher future taxes.

D. According to the new classical view, fiscal policy is completely impotent.

E. Jobs are merely a means to produce goods and services.

1. Politicians are fond of taking credit for jobs created by spending programs.

2. Job creation, either real or imagined, is not a sound reason to support a program.

3. The proper test is opportunity cost: the value of what is produced relative to the value of what is given up.

III. Political Incentives and the Effective Use of Discretionary Fiscal Policy A. Public choice analysis indicates that legislators are delighted to spend money on programs that directly benefit their own constituents but are reluctant to raise taxes because they impose a visible cost on voters.

B. Given the political incentives, budget deficits will be far more attractive than surpluses.

C. As a result, deficits will be far more common than surpluses, and discretionary fiscal policy is unlikely to be instituted in a counter-cyclical manner.

IV. Is Discretionary Fiscal Policy an Effective Stabilization Tool?

A. Proper timing of discretionary fiscal policy is both difficult to achieve and crucially important.

B. Automatic stabilizers reduce fluctuations in aggregate demand and help keep the economy on track.

C. Fiscal policy is much less potent than the early Keynesian view implied.

V. The Supply-Side Effects of Fiscal Policy A. From a supply-side viewpoint, the marginal tax rate is of crucial importance. A reduction in marginal tax rates increases the reward derived from added work, investment, saving, and other activities that become less-heavily taxed.

B. High marginal tax rates will tend to retard total output because they will: 1. Discourage work effort and reduce the productive efficiency of labor.

2. Adversely affect the rate of capital formation and the efficiency of its use.

3. Encourage individuals to substitute less-desired tax-deductible goods for more desired nondeductible goods.

C. Thus, changes in marginal tax rates, particularly high marginal rates, may exert an impact on aggregate supply because the changes will influence the relative attractiveness of productive activity in comparison to leisure and tax avoidance.

D. Impact of supply-side effects 1. Are likely to take place over a lengthy time period.

2. While the significance of supply-side effects is controversial, there is evidence they are important for taxpayers facing extremely high rate, say rates of 40 percent and above.

VI. Fiscal Policy and Recovery from Recessions A. Will fiscal stimulus speed recovery?

1. Keynesians believe that increases in government spending financed by borrowing will speed recovery from a severe recession because:

a. the expansion in government spending will offset reductions in private spending, b. interest rates will be extremely low during a severe recession and therefore crowding out of private spending will be minimal, and c. increased government spending will trigger a substantial multiplier effect when widespread unemployment is present.

2. Non-Keynesian critics argue that increased government spending and expanded debt will adversely affect both recovery and long-term growth because: a. The expansion in government debt will mean higher future interest payments and tax rates that will retard future growth. b. Recessions reflect a coordination problem and increases in government spending are likely to worsen this problem, thereby slowing the recovery process. c. More politically directed spending will lead to more rent-seeking and less productive activity.

B. Tax cuts versus spending increases 1. Some argue that increases in government spending will expand GDP by more than tax reductions, because 100 percent of an increase in government purchases will be pumped into the economy, whereas part of the tax reduction will be saved or spent abroad.

2. Tax cuts can generally begin to exert an impact on the economy more rapidly than spending increases.

3. Further, rate reductions and permanent rate changes will exert a larger impact than tax rebates and temporary tax cuts.

VII. U.S. Fiscal Policy: 1990–2019 A. Fiscal policy indicators, 1990–2019 1. Changes in government expenditures and the budget deficit (or surplus) provide evidence on the direction of fiscal policy.

2. Both real government spending and federal spending as a share of GDP grew far more rapidly during 2000–2010 than during the 1990s.

3. The federal budget moved from deficit to surplus during the 1990s, but it shifted in the opposite direction during 2000–2019.

4. Thus, both government spending and the federal budget indicate that fiscal policy moved toward restriction during the 1990s and expansion during the years following 2000.

B. Fiscal policy during the Great Recession 1. As the economy dipped into the recession of 2008–2009, both the Bush and Obama administrations moved to increase federal spending and enlarge the deficit just as Keynesian analysis proscribes.

2. Was the expansionary fiscal policy effective? a. Keynesians answer ―Yes.‖ They believe the recession would have been much worse in the absence of the expansionary fiscal policy. b. Critics respond ―No.‖ The recovery was the weakest of the post WWII era.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  How do the crowding-out and new classical models of fiscal policy modify the Keynesian analysis?  Is discretionary fiscal policy an effective stabilization tool? Why or why not?  Are there supply-side effects of fiscal policy?  Will increases in government spending financed by borrowing help promote recovery from a recession?

CONTEXT The Keynesian perspective indicates that fiscal policy is highly potent, but there are alternative views on this topic. The chapter discusses alterative views including the effects of interest rate crowding-out, and the new classical model. The chapter also considers the political incentives associated with discretionary fiscal policy and the role of fiscal policy as a stabilization tool.

While the chapter focuses on the demand-side effects of fiscal policy, the supply-side effects are also integrated into the analysis. An overview of fiscal policy in the United States during the past three decades is also presented.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

Exhibit 1 presents the interest rate crowding-out theory of fiscal policy. According to this theory, a budget deficit increases the demand for loanable funds and, during normal times, leads to a higher real interest rate. Thus, the theory stresses the potential importance of a secondary effect of fiscal policy that the Keynesian model ignores. The interest rate crowding-out theory implies that the net effects of a change in fiscal policy will be less powerful than indicated in the Keynesian model.

2.

Exhibit 3 provides a graphic illustration of the new classical theory. According to this view, decision makers will anticipate the impact of the higher future taxes on their wealth. Thus, they will increase their saving (and reduce their current spending) in order to pay the higher expected future taxes. This view argues that current taxes and debt (future taxes) are essentially equivalent in terms of their impact on aggregate demand.

3.

While macroeconomists have developed alternative theories of fiscal policy during recent years, nonetheless, many points of agreement have emerged. Be sure to stress the emerging modern synthesis outlined in the text.

4.

Note to students that one of the difficulties in implementing supply-side fiscal policy changes is the difficulty of making binding long-term political commitments to the effect that the incentives being improved today will stay improved tomorrow. For example, if taxes are only expected to be temporarily lower, few gains in long-term output will result because the incentives for long-term investments (including human capital investments) will have been little affected (e.g., point out to students that the tax rates that dominate their incentives to invest in human capital today are largely those of 20 years from now). One of the selling points behind attempts to impose Constitutional restrictions on fiscal policy is that such changes would be very hard to undo.

5.

Emphasize that supply-side economics is broader than just arguing for lower tax rates. It argues that wherever incentives toward production and mutually beneficial exchange are most adverse, they should be made less adverse. In addition to lowered tax rates, supply-side economists argue for legal and regulatory reforms, removal of government price controls, and restrictions on economic activity, etc.

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 3.

Government borrowing to finance a budget deficit will place upward pressure on real interest rates. In an open economy, the higher interest rates will increase the inflow of capital from abroad, which will cause the dollar to appreciate and net exports to decline. Thus, in an open economy, the higher interest rates will trigger reductions in net exports and aggregate demand, which will weaken the expansionary impact of a budget deficit.

5. The answer to this question is a point of contention among economists. Keynesians argue that the answer to this question is ―yes.‖ The crowding-out and new classical economists say ―No.‖ The crowding-out theory argues that the additional government spending financed with borrowing will lead to higher interest rates, which will crowd out private spending, either directly or through appreciation of the dollar in the foreign exchange market. The new classical theory argues that the borrowing will mean higher future taxes and people will

anticipate these higher taxes and therefore reduce their current spending so they will be better able to pay them. Thus, both the crowding-out and new classical theories indicate that the increase in government spending financed by borrowing will fail to promote a more rapid recovery.

8.

Keynesians believe that fiscal policy exerts a strong impact on aggregate demand, but both the crowding-out and new classical economists disagree. The transition from budget deficits to surpluses during the 1990s occurred without weakening, at least not much, either aggregate demand or the growth of the economy. In the aftermath of the 2008–2009 recession, the economy remained weak even though government spending increased sharply and the budget deficits were the highest of the post WWII era.

10. The lower marginal tax rates increased the share of taxes paid by high-income taxpayers. The lower rates increased economic output because they encouraged work effort and capital formation.

Chapter 13 Money and the Banking System OUTLINE I. What Is Money?

A. Medium of exchange: An asset that is used to buy and sell services B. Money as a store of value 1. Assets that can be quickly converted to money—liquid assets.

2. Unit of money—measured in terms of what it will buy.

C. Money as a unit of account II. How the Supply of Money Affects Its Value A. The main thing that makes money valuable is the same thing that generates value for other commodities: demand relative to supply.

B. People demand money because it reduces the cost of exchange. When the supply of money is limited relative to the demand, money will be valuable.

III. How Is the Money Supply Measured?

A. The M1 Money Supply 1. Components of M1 money supply a. Currency b. Checking deposits (including demand deposits and interest-earning checking deposits) B. The broader M2 money supply: broader measure that includes savings and time deposits and money market mutual funds C. Credit cards versus money 1. Money is an asset; credit card balances are a liability. Thus, credit card purchases are not money.

IV. The Business of Banking A. The banking industry includes savings and loans and credit unions as well as commercial banks.

B. Banks accept deposits and use part of them to extend loans and make investments.

C. Banks are profit-seeking institutions.

D. Banks play a central role in the capital (loanable funds) market. They help to bring together people who want to save for the future with those who want to borrow in order to undertake investment projects.

E. The banking system is a fractional reserve system: Banks maintain only a fraction of their assets in reserves to meet the requirements of depositors.

F. Bank runs, bank failures, and deposit insurance 1. Compared to other businesses, banks are more vulnerable to failure (and abuse), and the consequences of failure exert a larger impact on the economy.

2. The bank failures of the 1920s and 1930s led to the establishment of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) in 1934. a. The FDIC restored confidence in the banking system and reduced bank failures. b. Current limit: $250,000 per account V. How Banks Create Money by Extending Loans A. Under a fractional reserve system, an increase in reserves will permit banks to extend additional loans and thereby expand the money supply (create additional checking deposits).

B. The lower the percentage of the reserve requirement, the greater the potential expansion in the money supply resulting from the creation of new reserves.

C. The fractional reserve requirement places a ceiling on potential money creation from new reserves.

D. Required reserve: The minimum amount of reserves that a bank is required by law to keep on hand to back up its deposits.

E. Required reserve ratio: The ratio of reserves relative to a specified liability category that banks are required to maintain.

F. The actual deposit expansion multiplier 1. Some persons will hold currency rather than bank deposits.

2. Some banks may not use all their excess reserves to extend loans.

VI. The Federal Reserve System A. Structure of the Fed 1. The Board of Governors 2. The Federal Reserve District Banks 3. The Federal Open Market Committee 4. The independence of the Fed a. Stems from the lengthy terms—14 years—of members of the Board of Governors and the fact that its revenues are derived from interest on the bonds it holds rather than allocations from Congress.

B. How the Fed controls the money supply

1. Reserve requirements a. When the Fed lowers the required reserve ratio, it creates excess reserves and allows banks to extend additional loans, expanding the money supply. Raising the reserve requirements has the opposite effect.

2. Open market operations a. The buying and selling of bonds in the open market b. Primary tool used by Fed c. When the Fed buys bonds, the money supply will expand because the bond buyers will acquire money and bank reserves will increase (placing banks in a position to expand the money through the extension of additional loans). d. When the Fed sells bonds, the money supply will contract because bond buyers are giving up money in exchange for securities, and the reserves available to banks will decline (causing them to extend fewer loans).

3. Extension of loans by the Fed a. Historically, member banks have borrowed from the Fed primarily to meet temporary shortages of reserves. b. The discount rate is the interest rate the Fed charges banks for short-term loans needed to meet reserve requirements. c. Other things constant, an increase in the discount rate will reduce borrowing from the Fed and thereby exert a restrictive impact on the money supply.

Conversely, a lower discount rate will make it cheaper for banks to borrow from the Fed and exert an expansionary impact on the supply of money. d. Discount rate and federal funds rate (1) The discount rate is closely related to the interest rate in the federal funds market, a private loanable funds market where banks with excess reserves extend short-term loans to other banks trying to meet their reserve requirements. e. Controlling the federal funds rate (1) Announcements after the regular meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee often focus on the Fed‘s target for the fed funds rate.

(2) The Fed can reduce the fed funds rate by buying bonds, which will inject additional reserves into the banking system.

(3) The Fed can increase the fed funds rate by selling bonds, which will drain reserves from the banking system. f. Longer-term loans extended by the Fed (1) Prior to 2008, the Fed extended only short-term discount rate loans, and they were extended only to member banks.

(2) In 2008, the Fed established several new procedures for the extension of credit and began extending longer-term loans, including some to nonbanking institutions.

(3) In 2008, the Fed also began making loans to non-bank financial institutions such as insurance companies and brokerage firms; these loans have often been for lengthy time periods (5–10 years).

(4) Like the discount rate loans, these new types of loans inject additional reserves into the banking system and thereby exert an expansionary impact on the money supply.

4. Interest rate the Fed pays banks on reserves a. The Fed began paying banks interest on their reserves in October 2008. b. The payment of interest on reserves provides the Fed with another tool it can use to control the money supply. c. If the Fed wants banks to extend more loans and thereby expand the money supply, it will set the interest rate it pays on excess reserves very low, possibly even to zero. e. In contrast, if the Fed wants to reduce the money supply, it will increase the interest rate paid banks on excess reserves. This will provide them with an incentive to hold more reserves, which will reduce the money supply.

C. Recent Fed policy, the monetary base, and the money supply 1. Fed policy of 2008 a. Prior to the financial crisis of 2008, the Fed controlled the money supply almost exclusively through open market operations—the buying and selling of Treasury securities. b. During 2008, the Fed reduced its holding of Treasury securities but vastly expanded its purchase of corporate bonds, mortgage-backed securities, and commercial paper issued by private businesses. c. Moreover, there was a huge increase in Fed loans to non-banking institutions such as brokerage firms and insurance companies. d. As Exhibit 6 shows, Fed assets ballooned from 2008 to 2016 and then again in 2020. e. This vast increase in the purchase of assets and extension of loans by the Fed led to a sharp increase in bank reserves and the monetary base. f. Fed asset purchases during the 2020 COVID-19 crisis generated another surge in the monetary base.

2. Monetary base a. The monetary base is equal to the currency in circulation plus the reserves of commercial banks (vault cash and reserves held at the Fed). b. The monetary base is important because it provides the foundation for the money supply. c. The currency in circulation contributes directly to the money supply, while the bank reserves provide the underpinnings for checking deposits. d. The expansion in Fed purchases and extension of loans caused the monetary base to approximately double during the 9 months following August 2008.

3. Why didn‘t the banks use the excess reserves to extend loans? a. Because of the recession and sluggish growth, the demand for loans was weak. b. The Fed pushed the interest rate on Treasury bills and other short-term loans to near zero. c. There was considerable uncertainty about the future and therefore banks were reluctant to make long-term commitments.

D. The Fed and the Treasury 1. U.S. Treasury a. Concerned with the finance of the federal government b. Issues bonds to the general public to finance the budget deficits of the federal government c. Does not determine the money supply 2. Federal Reserve a. Concerned with the monetary climate for the economy b. Does not issue bonds c. Determines the money supply—primarily through its buying and selling of bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury

VII. Ambiguities in the Meaning and Measurement of the Money Supply A. Widespread use of the U.S. dollar outside of the United States 1. More than one-half and perhaps as much as two-thirds of this currency is held overseas.

2. This reduces the reliability of the M1 money supply measure.

B. Substitution of electronic payments for checks and cash 1. Historically, the rate of change of the money supply has been used to judge the direction and intensity of monetary policy. However, recent financial innovations and other structural changes (for example, the widespread use of U.S. currency in other countries) have blurred the meaning of money and reduced the reliability of the various money supply measures.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  What is money? How is the money supply defined?  What is a fractional reserve banking system? How does it influence the ability of banks to create money?  What are the major tools with which the Federal Reserve controls the supply of money?  How has the conduct of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve changed in recent years?

CONTEXT This chapter focuses on the supply of money—how it is defined and what determines its value.

The heart of this chapter is an outline of the monetary institutional arrangements for the United States that explains how monetary planners control the money supply. This material lays the foundation for Chapter 14, which analyzes how changes in the money supply affect economic activity.

It is important that the student gain an understanding of a fractional reserve banking system and how the actions of the central bank (the Federal Reserve System in the United States) can alter the deposit levels of member banks (and the money supply). However, this is not a text on money and banking. Historical information about banking institutions and endless detail about the banking industry add little to the student‘s understanding of monetary policy and how it works.

Therefore, material of this sort, often included in introductory texts, was kept to a minimum.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

It is advisable to let students know what lies ahead. Therefore, you may want to explain that Chapter 13 contains a discussion of money and how public policy can control the money supply. Chapter 14 will explain how policies that alter the money supply affect aggregate economic activity.

2.

Students often tend to believe that money has intrinsic value. Others may feel that the value of money is determined almost by chance or historical precedent. Be sure to emphasize that money is valuable primarily because of its scarcity relative to the quantity of goods and services involved in the exchange process.

3.

The M1 concept of money incorporates the idea that money is what a society generally uses as a means for payment. Since both currency and checks are broadly used for payment in the United States, the money supply (M1) is comprised of: (a) currency, (b) demand deposits, and (c) interest-earning checking deposits. As our recent experience indicates, the concept of money as the generally accepted means for payment is influenced by structural changes in the financial industry.

4.

In addition to the narrowly defined money supply (M1), we have chosen to emphasize the broader concept of money (M2). The text clearly defines the alternative concepts of money, as well as difficulties in the definition and measurement of money.

5.

Deregulation and the growth of interest-earning checkable deposits has changed the nature of money significantly in recent years. As Exhibit 1 illustrates, interest-earning deposits now account for about one-third of the checkable deposit potion of the money supply (M1). Be sure to point out that the interest-earning characteristic makes this component of the money supply similar to a savings account while still providing for the ―medium of exchange‖ function of money.

6.

Deregulation legislation has, in effect, eliminated the meaningful distinctions between: (a) commercial banks, (b) savings and loan associations, (c) mutual savings banks, and (d) credit unions. Therefore, the banking industry now encompasses all of these financial institutions.

7.

Our past experience suggests that an explanation of how the goldsmiths of the past altered the money supply when they began to issue loans helps the student to understand the link between loans and money creation under a fractional reserve banking system.

8.

Exhibit 2 illustrates that the creation of $1,000 of new reserves can potentially expand the money supply fivefold when the required reserve ratio is 20 percent. Work the same example, assuming that the required reserve ratio is 10 percent. Of course, the potential expansion in the money supply would be tenfold in the latter case.

9.

Be sure to explain that profit-maximizing banks have an incentive to minimize their idle reserves since excess reserves are not earning any interest. Therefore, the actual bank reserves will only slightly exceed the legally required reserves. Small amounts of excess reserves, however, may be less costly to ―live with‖ than to move into interest earnings forms, as in the federal funds market.

10. Carefully explain how changes in the Fed‘s: (a) open market operations, (b) required level of reserves, (c) extension of loans, and (d) interest paid on excess bank reserves alter the money supply. Exhibit 5 gives the reader a thumbnail summary of the four major weapons that can be used to alter the supply of money.

11. Students invariably confuse the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve System. Carefully explain the distinction between these two institutions of the government.

12. Critical Analysis questions 9 and 10 provide suitable material for a lively classroom discussion on what can and cannot be accomplished with more money.

13. It is often helpful to use a money multiplier formula to help students understand how the Fed controls the money supply. You can show them that in a highly simplified world, the money

supply (M) is equal to total reserves (TR) multiplied by the inverse of reserve requirements (rr). This formula can be used to highlight how each of the Fed‘s policy tools affect the money supply (open market operations, foreign currency transactions, and discount rate changes operating on TR; reserve requirements on the money multiplier). It can also be extended to include currency and different reserve requirements for different M components.

Such an approach seems to give students something more solid to hold onto in an unfamiliar area.

14. It is helpful to use several illustrations about money to make sure students understand money and the functions it performs. For instance, you can discuss with students whether rubles or any other former eastern bloc currency was money (not without connections or unless it was combined with large amounts of time waiting in line); or you can illustrate the fallacy of composition with it (if more money for me is good, more money for society must also be good).

15. In introducing the measurement and analysis of money, it is important for students to see that money is valuable to a society because the presence of a reliably valued money allows a dramatic reduction in transaction costs, leading to greatly increased levels of mutually beneficial trade and ability to exploit comparative advantage (especially for complex products that involve large numbers of trades), thereby creating value for society. This is why all societies create something to serve as money. However, inflation (deflation as well, but that does not seem to be much of a current threat) reduces money‘s ability to lower transactions costs and all the gains that go with it—this is in essence why we worry about inflation: because it takes away from money‘s ability to further social coordination.

16. Emphasize that while credit cards are not part of the supply of money, their degree of availability and acceptance will change the demand for money, since credit cards are substitutes for money in conducting transactions.

17. It is useful to show students why a change in reserve requirements is a blunt instrument for controlling the money supply. For example, a one-point change in reserve requirements from 10 percent to 9 percent would increase the money multiplier by 11.1 percent, sharply changing the money supply.

18. It is useful to tell students that while discount rate changes have little direct effect on the money supply, they may be valuable as indicators of future Federal Reserve policy (e.g. if the Fed lowers the discount rate, it is unlikely it will soon push up the federal funds interest rate).

This indicator function may help students understand the attention paid to the discount rate.

19. The issue of foreign holdings of U.S. currency can be illustrated by the Federal Reserve‘s decision to continue to accept ―old‖ $100 bills as well as new ones, because of the turmoil it would cause in other countries if the ―old‖ $100 bills were no longer legal tender in the United States.

20. Activity 1 examines how the fractional reserve system was developed. Activity 2 shows students how an open market purchase by the Federal Reserve expands the money supply, while Activity 3 familiarizes students with the structure of the Federal Reserve.

RELATED MATERIALS AVAILABLE FREE TO INSTRUCTORS 1.

Federal Reserve District Bank Publications. The regional Federal Reserve banks publish monthly and quarterly reviews available to instructors upon request. For those particularly interested in money supply and related economic data, the following publications from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166, are recommended. a. Review. Published monthly; contains articles and analyses on current monetary topics. b. Monetary Trends. Issued monthly. Presents current data on member bank reserves and the money supply with a brief discussion. c. International Economic Conditions. Issued monthly. Contains monetary and aggregate income data for major industrial countries. d. National Economic Trends. Issued monthly. Contains charts and tables with analytical comment on the national business situation.

ACTIVITIES 1. Gold and Knights Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class demonstration Money, fractional reserve banking Chapter 13: Money and the Banking System 3 coins, a receipt, a volunteer 10 minutes works in any size class

Purpose This activity illustrates the development of paper currency and the modern banking system.

Instructions Explain to the class that they are going back in time, back to a time when knights roamed the countryside and money was gold. Since gold was so important, the student volunteer will play the role of a goldsmith. ―In those days, bandits also roamed the countryside and people with money looked for a safe place to keep their gold. Goldsmiths had safes and strong rooms to protect their product. People turned to the ―goldsmith to protect their gold, as well.‖ Give the coins to the goldsmith and ask for a receipt. ―In the early days, putting money away for safe-keeping was like a coat check: your coins were stored and the same exact coins would be returned. Eventually the goldsmiths came up with an early financial innovation: depositors didn‘t care if they got their own coins back, as long as they received the proper amount of money.‖ ―Now, let‘s look at a transaction in those olden days.‖ Walk to the back of the class a choose a student. This student is in the horse trading business. You make an agreement to buy a horse from the student.

Walk back to the goldsmith. Present your receipt and withdraw your coins. Walk back to the horse trader. Give the student the coins. Explain that the horse trader needs to deposit these coins for safe-keeping. Take the coins back to the goldsmith and get a receipt. Give the receipt to the trader.

Explain, ―As you can see there is a lot of unnecessary travel involved in this transaction. I started with a receipt for gold and the horse trader ended up with a receipt for the same amount of gold.

There was no reason to travel back and forth with the actual coins. Eventually people realized this and simply made purchases with the receipts.‖ This is the origin of paper currency, or bank notes. ―Now the goldsmith, who by this time is truly a banker, notices that very few withdrawals of gold are made from his safe. Money was still a valuable commodity and it seemed wasteful to let it sit idle in storage. A more important financial innovation loomed. The banks realized they could loan

this idle money to investors. The investors were willing to pay to use the money. This provided a new profit source for the bank as well as financing to fund new mills and factories.‖ This is the development of fractional reserve banking.

Points for discussion Fractional reserve banking has many economic benefits. Depositors could now earn interest on their money, encouraging savings. Bank funding allowed borrowers to create new factors of production. This increased investment allows faster economic growth.

The main problem with fractional reserve banking is the inability to pay all depositors at a given time. Bank runs can lead to bank failures. Even healthy banks will not survive a bank run. This makes a good introduction to Federal deposit insurance as a way to prevent bank runs.

2. Money Creation Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class demonstration The banking system and deposit expansion Chapter 13: Money and the Banking System 2 volunteers, a paper with ―$1,000‖ written on it.

25 minutes works in any size class

Purpose This activity demonstrates the role of the banking system in expanding the money supply.

Instructions The two volunteers are bankers. Have each of them draw a balance sheet on the board.

BankTwo AmerBankCorp Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities 0 0 0 0 The rest of the class is the public. They are all eager borrowers and depositors.

The instructor is the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve sets the reserve requirement at 20 percent of deposits.

The Federal Reserve also conducts open-market operations. Use the $1,000 paper to buy a baseball cap from a student. (Explain that the Fed actually buys government bonds from the public since the market for used baseball caps is small.)

The capless student now has $1,000 to spend with any other member of the class. This student receives $1,000 and puts it in the bank of his or her choice.

The bank now has $1,000 in deposits (a liability) and $1,000 in cash (an asset). The bank needs to keep $200 in reserve (20 percent) but can loan the other $800. Have the banker tear off 20 percent of the bill and give the rest to another student.

The banks‘ balance sheets becomes: BankTwo AmerBankCorp Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities $200 (reserves) $1,000 (deposits) 0 0 $800 (loans) Now the borrower spends the $800 and the recipient deposits it in a bank. This bank now has $800 in deposits and $800 in cash. Of that, $160 dollars needs to be kept in reserve and $640 can be lent. Have the banker save 20 percent of the paper and give the rest to another eager borrower.

BankTwo AmerBankCorp Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities $200 (reserves) $1,000 (deposits) $160 (reserves) $800 (deposits) $800 (loans) $640 (loans) Continue this process for a few more iterations.

At the end, ask everyone who has money in the bank to stand. The total deposits in the bank will far exceed the initial $1,000 that the Fed put into the economy.

If the process continued indefinitely, the banks‘ balance sheets would look something like this: BankTwo AmerBankCorp Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities $500(reserves) $2,500 (deposits) $500 (reserves) $2,500(deposits) $2,000 (loans) $2,000 (loans) In practice the game will end with one bank holding some excess reserves.

Points for discussion Banks are important to the process of money creation. The banking system, as a whole, literally expands the money supply.

If the process is carried on far enough you can derive the money multiplier.

The time involved in this demonstration helps students understand the time lags associated with monetary policy.

3. What Can Be Learned from a Dollar?

Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class demonstration Money, Federal Reserve Chapter 13: Money and the Banking System none 5 minutes works in any size class

Purpose This activity introduces the role of the Federal Reserve in controlling the money supply.

Instructions Ask the class to take a dollar bill from their wallets (or a $5, $10, $20, or $100). Students without any currency can share with someone who does. Ask the class to read the bill.

After a minute, ask them what they have learned.

Common answers and points for discussion Most students focus on the statement ―This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private.‖ This statement is the only ―backing‖ U.S. currency has—the note is not convertible into gold or silver. This can be used to introduce the difference between fiat money and commodity money.

Someone will usually point to the phrase printed at the top of the face of each bill: ―Federal Reserve Note.‖ Explain the Fed functions as the United States central bank—controlling the money supply and supplying currency to banks.

Information about the structure of the Federal Reserve can be found in the seal to the left of Washington‘s portrait. The writing around the seal says ―Federal Reserve Bank of

.‖

If the class is big enough, all 12 Federal Reserve Banks will be represented: Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Cleveland, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco.

This is a good place to introduce the Federal Reserve Districts, and the Banks‘ roles in those regions. These include check clearing, holding commercial bank reserves, supplying currency, lending to commercial banks, and collecting and analyzing regional economic data.

The discussion of the structure of the Fed can be expanded to include the Board of Governors, the Federal Open Market Committee, and the importance of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 2.

The narrowly defined money supply M1 includes only assets that are widely used as a means of payment. Checking deposits meet this criterion, but savings deposits and Treasury bills do not. Thus, the former are included and the latter are not.

5. While the customers of a bank are constantly making deposits and withdrawals, these will tend to roughly balance out. Therefore, at any point in time, the bank will be able to satisfy the demands of its customers by maintaining only a fraction of its assets in the form of vault cash and deposits with the Fed. As long as the bank uses the funds of its customers to extend loans and undertake investments that generate earnings sufficient to cover its operating cost, the deposits of its customers are safe.

9. Challenge students to think about the following questions: Is printing more paper money the usual way in which the U.S. government alters the money supply? Does a budget deficit always increase the money supply? Is an increase in the money supply always inflationary?

14. a. The currency outstanding is included in both the M1 and M2 money supply, regardless of whether it is held domestically or abroad. Thus, this will not directly impact either M1 or M2. However, if more currency is held abroad, this could reduce the deposits in domestic banks and thereby reduce their ability to expand the money supply by extending additional loans. Thus, movement of currency overseas might indirectly reduce both M1 and M2. b. M1 will decline because money market mutual funds are not included in the M1 money measure. There will be no impact on M2. c. If the public holds less currency and has more of their funds in bank deposits, this will provide banks with additional reserves, which can be used to extend more loans and thereby expand both the M1 and M2 money supply. Thus, if the Fed does not take offsetting action, a reduction in the holding of currency by the general public will tend to expand both the M1 and M2 money supply figures. d. There is no impact on M1, because neither are included in the M1 money supply. The M2 money supply will decline because money market mutual funds are included in M2, but funds in stock and bond mutual funds are not.

Chapter 14 Modern Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy OUTLINE I. The Impact of Monetary Policy: A Brief Historical Background A. Keynesian View: Dominated during the 1950s and 1960s, Keynesians argued that money supply does not matter much.

B. Monetarists challenged Keynesian view during 1960s and 1970s. According to monetarist, changes in the money supply are the cause of both inflation and economic instability.

C. Both modern Keynesians and monetarists agree that monetary policy exerts an important impact on the economy.

II. The Demand and Supply of Money A. The quantity of money people want to hold is inversely related to the money rate of interest, because higher interest rates make it more costly to hold money instead of interest-earnings assets like bonds.

B. The supply of money is vertical because it is determined by the Fed. C. Equilibrium: The money interest rate will gravitate toward the rate where the quantity of money people want to hold is just equal to the stock of money the Fed has supplied.

III. How Does Monetary Policy Affect the Economy?

A. The impact of a shift in monetary policy is generally transmitted through interest rates, exchange rates, and asset prices.

1. The lower real interest rate will make current investment and consumption cheaper.

2. The lower interest rate will tend to cause financial capital to move abroad, the foreign exchange rate of the dollar to depreciate, and net exports to expand.

3. The lower interest rate will tend to increase asset prices—for example, the prices of stocks and houses—which will also increase aggregate demand.

B. Shift to a more expansionary monetary policy—Fed generally buys bonds, which will both increase bond prices and create additional bank reserves, placing downward pressure on real interest rates. As a result, an unanticipated shift to a more expansionary policy will stimulate aggregate demand and thereby increase output and employment.

C. Shift to a more restrictive monetary policy—Fed sells bonds, which will depress bond prices and drain reserves from the banking system. An unanticipated shift to a more restrictive monetary policy will increase real interest rates and reduce aggregate demand, output, and employment in the short run.

D. Effects of an unanticipated expansionary monetary policy 1. When instituting a more expansionary monetary policy, the Fed generally increases the reserves available to banks and pushes interest rates downward.

2. In the short run, an unanticipated shift to a more expansionary policy will stimulate aggregate demand and thereby increase output and employment.

E. Effects of an unanticipated restrictive monetary policy 1. When instituting a more restrictive monetary policy, the Fed drains reserves from the banking system and pushes interest rates upward.

2. In the short run, an unanticipated shift to a more restrictive monetary policy will increase real interest rates and reduce aggregate demand, output, and employment.

F. Shifts in Monetary Policy and Economic Stability 1. Timing of monetary policy plays a significant role in stabilizing the economy.

2. When an economy is operating below its long-run capacity, expansionary monetary policy can increase aggregate demand and push the output of the economy to its sustainable potential.

3. Expansionary monetary policy will cause inflation if the effects of the policy are felt when the economy is already at or beyond its capacity.

IV. Monetary Policy in the Long Run A. The quantity theory of money: MV = PY 1. If V (velocity) and Y (output) are constant, an increase in M (money supply) would lead to a proportional increase in P (price level).

B. Long-run impact of monetary policy: The modern view 1. In the long run, the primary impact will be on prices rather than on real output.

2. When expansionary monetary policy leads to rising prices, decisionmakers eventually anticipate the higher inflation rate and build it into their choices. As this happens, money interest rates, wages, and incomes will reflect the expectation of inflation, so real interest rates, wages, and output will return to their long-run normal levels.

C. Money and inflation 1. Countries with persistently low rates of growth in their money supply tend to experience low rates of inflation.

2. In contrast, countries with persistently high rates of growth in the money supply tend to experience high rates of inflation.

V. Money, Economic Stability, and Proper Monetary Policy A. Time lags, monetary shifts, and economic stability 1. While the Fed can institute policy changes rapidly, there will be a time lag before the change exerts much impact on output and prices. a. This time lag is estimated to be 6 to 18 months in the case of output. b. In the case of the price level, the lag is estimated to be 12 to 30 months.

B. Monetary policy and price stability 1. Monetary policy is a primarily factor in price control.

2. Price stability is one of the 12 Keys to Prosperity.

3. Price stability and the smooth operation of the pricing system help to more fully realize the potential gains from exchange, specialization, and mass production processes.

4. Economists who favor either an inflation or nominal GDP target typically buttress their case with two additional points. a. First, monetary authorities should focus on inflation and nominal GDP and preannounce them. This reduces uncertainty by providing individuals with assurance regarding the future direction of monetary policy. b. Second, it is a mistake for monetary policy-makers to target real variables such as real GDP, employment, or unemployment.

VI. Recent Low Interest Rates and Monetary Policy A. From 2010–2015, the Fed continued to purchase huge quantities of Treasury securities and other financial assets, vastly expanding the reserves available to the banking system.

B. From 2010–2020, both the nominal and real interest rates in the United States were exceedingly low.

C. The spread of the COVID-19 virus in 2020 caused output to plunge; the Fed shifted to a highly expansionary monetary policy.

D. Expansionary monetary policy can reduce interest rates temporarily, it cannot do so over a lengthy time span.

E. Low interest rates are the result of demographic factors; they are likely to continue in the years immediately ahead.

VII. Interest Rates, Velocity of Money, and Monetary Policy A. When interest rates decline to low levels, people hold a larger quantity of money, and the velocity of money falls.

B. Prior to 2007, the velocity of M1 trended upward while the velocity of M2 fluctuated within a narrow range.

C. During the decade 2010–2020 as interest rates fell, the velocity of both M1 and M2 plunged.

D. Uncertainty about potential changes in velocity complicates the use of monetary policy as a stabilization tool.

E. In addition to the variable time lags between when a policy is instituted and when it begins to exert an impact on aggregate demand, output, and prices, monetary policymakers must also consider how a policy change will impact the velocity of money.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  How does monetary policy affect interest rates, output, and employment?  Can monetary policy stimulate real GDP in the short run? Can it do so in the long run?  How does monetary policy affect economic stability? How does it affect inflation?  Why have interest rates been so low during the past decade? Is expansionary monetary policy responsible for the low interest rates?

CONTEXT This chapter integrates money into our basic aggregate demand/aggregate supply model. The evolution of the modern view of monetary policy—including the quantity theory of money and the early Keynesian view—is presented. The modern view of money indicates that monetary policy may be transmitted to the goods and services market by changing consumption and investment spending, exchange rates, asset prices, and credit rationing. These mechanisms are illustrated. Recent low interest rates and the impact on the velocity of money is discussed.

The modern view of monetary policy also stresses the importance of whether a change in monetary policy is anticipated or unanticipated. Only the latter will exert an impact on real interest rates, output, and employment. Similarly, the impact of monetary policy in the long run may differ from its impact in the short run. This chapter focuses on each of these issues and discusses recent Federal Reserve policy.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

To give the student a historical perspective, review the positions of both classical and early Keynesian economists on the quantity theory of money before presenting the modern view.

When you discuss the modern view, emphasize that, unlike the classical economists, modern

macroeconomists do not believe that prices and wages will quickly adjust to the quantity of money.

2.

Students tend to confuse fiscal and monetary policy. Instructors should indicate clearly that fiscal policy involves the altering of tax rates and the level of government expenditures. On the other hand, monetary policy involves changes (e.g., open market operations, reserve requirements, and the discount rate) that alter the money supply. The rate of change in the money supply is the single best indicator of monetary policy. Monetary policy is determined by the Board of Governors and the Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve System.

3.

Students also easily confuse the issuing and sale of bonds by the Treasury to the public (which will not change the money supply) and the sale of bonds by the Fed to the public (which will have a restrictive effect on the money supply). Point out that U.S. bonds are always issued by the Treasury. The Fed merely buys and sells these bonds (usually from the public rather than directly from the Treasury). The Treasury either increases or decreases the amount of bonds that it has outstanding (the national debt), depending on whether it is running a deficit or surplus. The Fed, however, buys and sells government bonds, depending on the monetary policy it is pursuing. Thus, budgetary conditions and fiscal policy objectives underlie Treasury policy, whereas monetary policy objectives underlie the Fed‘s decision to buy or sell bonds.

4.

Review Exhibit 3 to make sure students understand the mechanics by which changes in monetary policy are transmitted to the goods and services market.

5.

Exhibits 7 and 8 will help students grasp the interrelationships among the basic macroeconomic markets and the importance of expectations. Be sure to note the relationship between inflation in the goods and services market (Exhibit 7) and high money interest rates in the loanable funds market once decision makers anticipate a high rate of inflation (Exhibit 8).

6.

Modern macroeconomics stresses the importance of whether the effects of a monetary change are anticipated or unanticipated.

7.

The Thumbnail Sketch illustrates the expected effects of monetary policy under alternative circumstances. Instruct students to make sure they understand why the effects of a monetary change vary between the short and long runs and depending upon whether the change is anticipated or unanticipated.

8.

Class discussion of the Critical Analysis questions will help students better understand the material of this chapter. The authors have found questions 8, 10, and 11 to be particularly good ―discussion starters.‖ Question 6 might be used as a homework assignment.

9.

In presenting monetary transmission mechanisms, an interesting classroom discussion topic is why a two asset (money and government bonds) ―story‖ for the effects of money supply on interest rates makes sense during a depression/ongoing deflation situation. Note that depression and deflation make virtually all other financial assets bad investments, reducing the direct transmission mechanisms‘ ability to work. During normal times, however, the existence of other good financial assets besides money and government bonds allows the direct transmission mechanisms to be quite powerful.

10. Brief ―modern‖ examples that can be used to introduce the classroom discussion of what beside interest rates affects the quantity of money demanded include asking the class what effect the introduction of widespread overdraft protection would have on the demand for money, asking what the effect would be of canceling all credit cards, and asking what the effect of lowered transactions fees in the stock and bond markets would be.

11. It is useful to mention to students that the equation of exchange will be closely linked to the various monetary growth rules (e.g., 3 percent money growth, national income, and price level rules) that have been proposed, and that will be discussed in Chapter 15.

12. Although the effects on real variables of reducing the money supply or reducing the growth rate of the money supply will be the same, it is important to distinguish for students between the effects of these two different changes on nominal variables (in one case they fall; in the other they rise but at a reduced rate).

13. Remind students that stable monetary policy and prices are important ultimately because it reduces uncertainty and related mistakes and expands the scope of mutually beneficial trade.

14. Question 15 can be used class discussions around low interest rates and velocity of money.

There is an inverse relationship between the nominal interest rate and the amount of money people are willing to hold. When interest rates decline to low levels, people hold a larger quantity of money, and the velocity of money will fall. The interactions among changes in monetary policy, interest rates, inflation, and the velocity of money complicate the use of monetary policy as a stabilization tool.

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 5.

Expansionary monetary will reduce interest rates in the short run. However, in the long run, interest rates will rise due to a rise in the expected inflation rate.

9.

Price stability is important because it will reduce the uncertainty accompanying investment and other time dimension activities and transactions. If monetary policy results in approximate price stability, this is the most important thing it can do to create an environment for economic growth and prosperity. In contrast, if monetary policy-makers are constantly shifting back and forth in an effort to smooth the ups and downs of the business cycle, they will make errors and their actions are likely to generate more rather than less instability.

Limitations on our ability to forecast the future and the long and variable time lags of monetary policy substantially reduce their ability to institute policy shifts in a stabilizing manner. Thus, constant shifts in monetary policy are likely to increase, rather than reduce, economic instability.

Chapter 15 Macroeconomic Policy, Economic Stability, and the Federal Debt

OUTLINE I. Economic Fluctuations: The Past 100 Years A. Historically, the United States has experienced substantial swings in real output.

B. Prior to the Second World War, year-to-year changes in real GDP of 5 to 10 percent were experienced on several occasions.

C. During the last five decades, the fluctuations of real output have been more moderate.

II. Can Discretionary Policy Promote Economic Stability?

A. Goals of stabilization policy 1. Economists of almost all persuasions favor the following goals: a. a stable growth of real GDP b. a relatively stable level of prices c. a high level of employment (low unemployment) 2. But there is disagreement about how these goals can be achieved.

B. Activist and non-activist views 1. If monetary and fiscal policies could inject stimulus during economic slowdowns and apply restraint during inflationary booms, this would help reduce the ups and downs of the business cycle. a. Activists believe that policymakers can respond to changing economic conditions and institute policy in a manner that will promote economic stability. b. Non-activists argue that the discretionary use of monetary and fiscal policy in response to changing economic conditions is likely to do more harm than good.

2. Both activists and non-activists recognize that conducting macro policy in a stabilizing manner is not an easy task.

3. The political problem: Policy changes may be driven by political considerations rather than stabilization needs.

C. The time lag problem 1. It takes time to identify when a policy change is needed, additional time to institute the policy change, and still more time before the change begins to exert an impact on the economy.

2. Recognition lag: The time period after a policy change is needed from a stabilization standpoint but before the need is recognized by policy-makers.

3. Administrative lag: The time period after the need for a policy change is recognized but before the policy is actually implemented.

4. Impact lag: The time period after a policy change is implemented but before the change begins to exert its primary effects.

III. Forecasting Tools and Macro Policy A. Index of leading indicators 1. Composite statistic based on 10 key variables that generally turn down prior to a recession and turn up before the beginning of a business expansion.

2. Can forecast future and help policymakers, but it is an imperfect forecasting devise.

B. Computer forecasting models

1. Highly complex econometric models can be created.

2. Record of computer forecasting is mixed.

C. Market signals as forecasting tools 1. Changes in exchange rates can be a source of information about the relative scarcity of money and fear of inflation.

D. Is accurate forecasting feasible?

1. Forecasting the future direction of the economy is an imperfect science.

IV. How Are Expectations Formed?

A. Adaptive expectations: individuals form their expectations about the future on the basis of data from the recent past.

B. Rational expectations: Assumes that people use all pertinent information, including data on the conduct of current policy, in forming their expectations about the future.

V. Macro Policy Implications of Adaptive and Rational Expectations A. With adaptive expectations, an unanticipated shift to a more expansionary policy will temporarily stimulate output and employment.

B. With rational expectations, expansionary policy will not generate a systematic change in output.

C. Both expectations theories indicate that sustained expansionary policies will lead to inflation without permanently increasing output and employment.

VI. The Phillips Curve: The View of the 1960s versus Today A. The Phillips curve outlines the relationship between inflation and unemployment.

B. In the 1960s, it was widely believed that higher rates of inflation could be used to reduce the unemployment rate.

1. This view provided the foundation for the expansionary policies and inflation of the 1970s.

C. Once expectations are integrated into macro analysis, it is clear that this early view of the Phillips Curve is fallacious.

D. Expectations and the modern view of the Phillips curve 1. The economic crisis of 2008–2009 was different. In that case, a sharp decline in the inflation rate was associated with a substantial increase in the unemployment rate during the same time period.

VII. The Growing Federal Debt and Economic Stability A. Deficits, surpluses, and the national debt 1. National debt: the sum of the indebtedness of the federal government in the form of interest-earning bonds. It reflects loans to the U.S. Treasury.

2. A budget deficit increases the size of the national debt by the amount of the deficit.

Conversely, a budget surplus allows the federal government to pay off bondholders and so reduce the size of the national debt.

3. The national debt represents the cumulative effect of all the prior budget deficits and surpluses.

4. The federal debt rose to 120 percent in June of 2020, and projections indicate it will reach 130 percent of GDP by the end of the year. These are historically high levels.

B. Who owns the national debt?

1. Of the $23.20 trillion debt, 37.5 percent is held by government agencies (primarily Social Security Trust Funds) and the Federal Reserve banks. The other 62.5 percent is held privately (domestic and abroad).

2. Of the $14.49 trillion of privately held federal debt, 46.2 percent is owned by foreigners and 53.8 percent is held by domestic investors.

C. How does debt financing influence future generations?

1. For domestically held debt (53.8 percent of total privately held debt), the future generations that pay the tax liability accompanying the debt will also receive the interest income.

2. Debt financing of a government activity cannot push the opportunity cost of the resources used by the government into the future.

3. Debt financing will influence future generations primarily through capital formation.

4. Borrowing from foreigners a. Borrowing from foreigners accounts for approximately 46.2 percent of the federal debt. b. If the foreign borrowing is used to finance productive projects, future generations will inherit more productive assets that will make it possible for them to service the debt. c. Alternatively, if the borrowing from foreigners is used to finance current consumption or unproductive investment projects, the earnings from the additional capital formation will be insufficient to cover the interest payments.

In this case, future generations of Americans are harmed by the debt financing.

D. Why is deficit spending so difficult to control?

1. Political attractiveness of budget deficits a. Politicians like to spend in order to provide visible benefits to their constituents, but they do not like to tax because this imposes a visible cost on voters. b. Debt financing makes it possible for politicians to spend now while pushing the visible cost of the higher taxes into the future.

2. Unfunded promises are a form of debt a. Unfunded benefits (like Social Security and Medicare) also make it possible for politicians to take credit for the promised benefit now without having to levy the equivalent amount of visible taxes. b. Thus, the political popularity of debt financing and unfunded benefits reflects the short-sightedness effect—the myopic nature of the political process.

E. Have federal debt obligations grown to a dangerous level?

1. Lending to countries with a large debt-to-GDP ratio is risky. As this ratio increases, governments will have to pay higher interest rates. This will make it still more difficult to control the budget deficit.

2. A country such as the United States with a central bank is highly unlikely to directly default on its debt.

3. Instead, it is far more likely to use money creation to meet its debt obligations.

4. In turn, this will lead to inflation.

VIII. Perspective on Recent Macroeconomic Policy and Economic Instability A. 1983–2019 was the most stable period in American history.

B. From 1910 to 1959, the U.S. economy was in recession 32.8 percent of the time.

C. From 1960 through 1982, recession was present 22.8 percent of the time.

D. During 1983–2019, the economy was in recession only 7.7 percent of the time.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  Can discretionary use of monetary and fiscal policy reduce the ups and downs of the business cycle?  What are the major factors that enhance the ability of policymakers to promote stability?

What factors limit their ability to do so?  Why is debt financing difficult to control?  Do the debt obligations of the federal government threaten future economic stability?

CONTEXT This chapter focuses on a major area of current controversy among economists: what policy strategy is most likely to minimize economic instability? Activists believe that discretionary changes in macroeconomic policy in response to economic indicators and forecasting tools will moderate economic instability. In contrast, nonactivists believe that it is a mistake for policymakers to change course in response to current economic conditions. The nonactivists argue rigid rules and guidelines requiring policymakers to follow a stable economic course, independent of current economic conditions, are most likely to minimize instability. This chapter also gives students both a historical perspective of the Phillips curve as well as the modern view of the Phillips curve. It concludes with a discussion of the effects of the growing federal debt.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

Exhibit 1 provides historical perspective on fluctuations in real GDP. Of course, we continue to observe economic instability. However, as the exhibit illustrates, the swings in real GDP have been more moderate during the last five decades.

2.

The index of leading indicators is an important forecasting device available to policymakers.

Exhibit 2 presents the forecasting record of the index during the 1959–2020 period.

3.

Many laypersons believe that training in economics permits one to forecast the future accurately. Economists, particularly those marketing forecasting services, have also promoted this view. In our judgment, both the ability of economists and the implications of economic theory as a forecasting tool are often oversold. This topic can provide an interesting classroom discussion.

4.

Critical Analysis question 1 provides a project suitable for assignment as a short paper.

Critical Analysis questions 2, 3, 5, 8, and 10 can be used to stimulate student discussion of the major topics covered by this chapter.

5.

There are several useful analogies to the problem facing policy activists in their attempt to reduce macroeconomic instability. One of the best is to that of an ocean liner captain. Ocean liners turn only with a lag, so to pilot it well you need to know how long the lag is and how quickly it will then turn (and it may keep turning after you want it to stop). You need good charts to know where you are trying to go and how to get there, and you need to know where you are at any given point. You need information about currents, etc., and weather introduces many complicating variables (and weather forecasting is imperfect). Another useful one is the Fed chairman trying to drive the econo-car (economy) when the front and side windows are blackened and the rear mirror information is subject to retroactive modification; you get conflicting advice and forecasts; you don‘t know which money lever to use or how long it will be before results will appear, or exactly how strong these effects will be.

6.

It can sometimes be helpful to talk about why forecasting models are reasonably accurate in times of ―smooth sailing‖ when not much is changing but not at turning points, when we really want to know, because something is going on that is different than that captured in the input-output model coefficients (largely estimated from data from the recent past).

7.

Take note in class of the relationship between the central bank and monetary stability; this question is being hotly debated in many parts of the world.

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 3.

According to the adaptive expectations hypotheses, individuals base their expectations on the immediate past. Thus, expectations in the short run lag behind actual events, and decisionmakers will systematically make errors. The rational expectations hypothesis assumes that individuals take all available information into account in the decisionmaking process. Thus, decisionmakers not only consider past information but comprehend the impact of macro policy changes on price and employment and adjust their choices accordingly.

Under rational expectations, decisionmakers will make errors, but they will not make them systematically. Once people have fully adapted to a policy (the long run), they aren‘t fooled, even under adaptive expectations. Therefore, long-run results are the same in both cases.

People can be fooled in the short-run under adaptive, but not rational expectations, so shortrun results will differ.

6.

With adaptive expectations, an unanticipated shift to a more expansionary policy will temporarily stimulate output and employment. In contrast, with rational expectations, expansionary policy will not generate a systematic change in output. The long-run results are the same under both theories (i.e., sustained expansionary policies will lead to inflation without permanently increasing output and employment). The short-run results differ because people can be fooled in the short-run under adaptive, but not rational expectations. However, once people have fully adapted to a policy (the long run), they aren‘t fooled, even under adaptive expectations.

7.

Here are three practical problems that limit the effectiveness of discretionary macro policy as a stabilization tool: (1) inability to forecast the future direction of the economy with a high

degree of accuracy, (2) lengthy and uncertain time lags between when a policy change is instituted and when the primary effects are felt, and (3) political factors that make it difficult to alter fiscal policy quickly.

Chapter 16 Creating an Environment for Growth and Prosperity OUTLINE I. Why Is Economic Growth Important?

A. The impact of sustained economic growth 1. Per capita GDP: Income per person. Increases in income per person are vital for the achievement of higher living standards.

2. Rule of 70: If a variable grows at a rate of x percent per year, 70/x will approximate the number of years required for the variable to double.

II. Sources of Economic Growth and High Incomes A. Gains from trade 1. Trade is mutually advantageous.

2. Trade moves goods, services, and resources from people who value them less to people who value them more.

3. Our living standard would be meager if we could not trade with others, as we all acquire numerous goods through trade that would be costly or virtually impossible for us to produce for ourselves.

4. When individuals and businesses are permitted to trade over a broader market area, they will be able to achieve lower per unit costs, produce larger outputs, and achieve higher living standards.

B. Entrepreneurship, technology, and the discovery of better ways of doing things 1. Technological advancement: The introduction of new techniques or methods that increase output per unit of input.

2. New and improved products have replaced older ones and often rendered them obsolete.

C. Investment in physical and human capital 1. Investment in both physical capital (machines) and human capital (knowledge and skills) can expand the productive capacity of a worker.

2. Allocation of resources to producing tools, machines, and factories, as well as to education and training, results in a faster-growing country. a. This, however, leaves fewer available resources for producing currentconsumption goods.

3. High investment rates can be deceiving. a. Do not guarantee rapid growth. b. Collapse of Soviet bloc countries is a good example of this.

III. What Institutions and Policies Will Promote Growth?

A. Legal system: secure property rights, rule of law, and even-handed enforcement of contracts 1. Private ownership rights legally protect people against those who engage in criminal acts to take things that do not belong to them.

2. Well-defined and enforced private ownership rights encourage people to help and cooperate with others. a. Employers have to offer prospective employees and suppliers a deal that entices them to choose that employer. b. Business owners need to provide goods and services that are highly valued in order to attract customers. c. Entrepreneurs work to discover new and better products and production methods.

3. Institutions: The legal, regulatory, and social constraints that affect the security of property rights and enforcement of contracts.

4. When private ownership rights are insecure or highly restricted, the incentive of entrepreneurs to engage in productive activity is eroded.

B. Competitive markets 1. The competitive process imposes discipline on both buyers and sellers.

2. Firms that develop improved products and figure out how to produce them at a low cost will succeed.

C. Stable money and prices 1. A stable monetary environment provides the foundation for the efficient operation of a market economy.

2. Monetary and price instability makes both the price level and relative prices unpredictable, generates uncertainty, and undermines the security of contractual exchanges.

D. Avoidance of regulations that restrict trade and entry into markets 1. Regulations that interfere with voluntary exchange and open trade make it difficult for the efficient functioning of markets and reduce gains from trade.

2. Proponents often argue that regulations will keep the unqualified out of a market, prohibit unfair competition, raise wages, reduce prices, or restrict the layoff of workers.

3. Under a legal system with sound enforcement of liability, individuals and businesses are accountable for their actions that harm others.

4. Regulation is a poor substitute for well-defined property rights, a sound legal system, and the natural regulatory process of competitive markets.

E. Avoidance of high tax rates 1. High marginal tax rates take a large share of the rewards generated by productive activities, making it less attractive for people to work and undertake profitable business projects.

2. High marginal tax rates may look like an easy way to extract more revenue from the rich; however, the incentive effects cause people to alter their behavior.

F. Trade openness

1. Residents of a country are permitted to trade freely with foreigners.

2. Trade restrictions such as tariffs, quotas, restrictions on the convertibility of currency, and other political roadblocks limiting international trade are largely absent.

IV. Economic Freedom as a Measure of Sound Institutions A. Economic freedom: Method of organizing economic activity characterized by 1. personal choice 2. voluntary exchange coordinated by markets 3. freedom to enter and compete in markets 4. protection of people and their property from aggression by others.

B. Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) index, published annually by a worldwide network of institutes in more than 90 countries, documents the degree of economic freedom.

V. Institutions, Policies, and Economic Performance A. Economic freedom and per capita income 1. Quartile: The quartiles are often arrayed on the basis of an indicator like income or degree of economic freedom.

2. Purchasing power parity (PPP) method: Method in which the relative purchasing power of each currency is determined by comparing the amount of each currency required to purchase a common bundle of goods and services in the domestic market. This information is then used to convert the GDP of each nation to a common monetary unit like the U.S. dollar.

B. Economic freedom and growth of per capita income 1. The relation between the economic freedom of a country and its growth rate during 1995–2017 is shown in Exhibit 6. a. As demonstrated in the exhibit, the average annual growth rate of per capita GDP of countries in the top quartile was more than twice the average rate of the countries in the bottom quartile. b. Increases in economic freedom during the period enhanced the growth of per capita GDP. c. Countries with more economic freedom achieve higher income levels and grow more rapidly.

C. Economic freedom and the poverty rate 1. Extreme poverty rate: Share of the population with income less than $1.90 per day, measured in 2011 purchasing power parity dollars.

2. Moderate poverty rate: Share of the population with income less than $3.20 per day, measured in 2011 purchasing power parity dollars.

3. Exhibit 7 shows the Economic Freedom and the Poverty Rate (2017) for the least to most free economies.

D. Economic freedom and life expectancy 1. Exhibit 8 shows a strong positive relationship between economic freedom and life expectancy.

E. Economic freedom and environmental quality

1. Environmental Performance Index (EPI): This index rates the quality and performance of countries in ten categories of environmental health and ecosystem vitality.

2. The ten categories considered in the index are: Air Quality, Water and Sanitation, Heavy Metals, Biodiversity and Habitat, Forests, Fisheries, Climate and Energy, Air Pollution, Water Resources, and Agriculture.

IV. Economic Freedom and Per Capita Income: How Strong Is the Linkage?

A. Countries with persistently high economic freedom ratings grow and achieve high levels of income.

B. No country has been able to achieve a high level of per capita income without having a high degree of economic freedom (except for a few of the world‘s leading oil exporters).

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  How does sustained economic growth change income levels and the lives of people?  What are the major sources of economic growth?  What institutions and policies will promote growth and prosperity?  What does the empirical evidence reveal with regard to the linkage between economic institutions and policies and the quality of life of people?

CONTEXT This chapter delves into the size of the current economic gap among nations. The text points out the income differences across countries and depicts that the fastest growing countries are also less developed countries. The chapter analyzes the role of economic freedom in determining economic growth. More economic freedom is present when people are permitted to choose for themselves, trade freely with others in both domestic and international markets, and live in an environment where property rights are secure and money has a stable value. Countries with more economic freedom tend to grow more rapidly and have greater investment rates.

Open trade, investment in human and physical capital, technological progress, and efficient economic organization are important determinants of growth. Legal and balanced judiciary systems and institutional arrangements that encourage investment, technological innovation, and efficient use of resources will simultaneously encourage growth. These include (1) private ownership, (2) competitive markets, (3) stable prices, (4) an open economy, (5) minimal regulation, and (6) avoidance of high marginal tax rates. Data shows that economic freedoms along with strong institutions and policies lead to strong per capital income, lower poverty, and longer life expectancy rates. Economic freedom has also been shown to have a positive relationship with environmental quality.

The text points out that a legal structure that protects property rights and enforces contracts in an evenhanded manner is vitally important. Without such a legal system, people will not be able to derive the benefits of depersonalized trade with people living in distant locations. Without the gains from a vast network of depersonalized exchanges coordinated by markets, high income levels and living standards will be unattainable.

Lastly, the chapter notes that economic institutions and policies will reflect political choices.

The political environment often conflicts with the adoption of sound economic policy. Even democratic politics will sometimes lead to the adoption of policies that reduce growth and prosperity.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

Review with students the data of Exhibit 2. This exhibit highlights the impact of long-term differences in growth rates.

2.

Discuss the significance of each of the following as a source of economic growth: a. investment in human capital b. investment in physical capital c. technological progress d. efficiency of economic organization e. institutional environment

3.

Indicate how each of the following aids the growth of income: a. secure private property rights, and even-handed enforcement of contracts b. competitive markets c. stable money and prices d. an open economy e. minimal regulation f. avoidance of high marginal tax rates

4.

The connection between marginal tax rates and growth provides material for an interesting class discussion. Ask students to consider why high marginal tax rates might cause a nation to have a ―brain drain.‖ How do they affect the incentive to earn?

5.

Questions 5 and 6 can help stimulate classroom discussions.

6.

Question 14 is a topic suitable for assignment as a short research paper.

7.

The Addendum to the chapter can lead to interesting discussions. Compare two or three countries based on their economic freedom indices. The following are some points to consider: a. Type of political structure

b. Openness of their economy c. Competitive markets

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 1. Even seemingly small differences in growth rates sustained over two or three decades will substantially alter relative incomes. For example, if Country A and Country B have the same initial income, but the growth rate of A is 2 percentage points greater than that of B, after 35 years the income level of Country A will be twice that of B. 5. Competition is important because it encourages producers to supply goods that consumers value highly relative to cost, and to do so efficiently. Firms that fail to do so will be unable to compete effectively, and eventually they will be driven out of business. In turn, this will release the resources for use in the production of other things that are more highly valued.

When businesses fail (primarily due to their inability to pay for their expenses), better positioned/competitive firms step in and operate in this vacuum, increasing their market share and improving their income levels.

13. There is strong positive relationship between economic freedom and life expectancy (Exhibit 8). People living in countries with more economic freedom live longer. The average life expectancy in 2017 of countries in the most economically free quartile was 79.4 years, compared to only 65.2 years in the least free quartile.

Chapter 17 The Economics of Development OUTLINE I. The Economic Record of the Last 1000 Years A. Developing countries: Countries with stagnating levels of GDP per capita that lagged behind the high-income countries of Western Europe, North America, Oceania, and Japan during the decades following the Industrial Revolution. They are sometimes referred to as less-developed countries.

B. Industrial Revolution: Development of machines and improvements in technology beginning around 1800 that propelled increases in output and rising income levels.

C. Since 1970, something like a second economic revolution has occurred, and it has affected the entire world. Per person real income levels in the high-income countries have continued to rise, but for the first time in history, the rest of the world has achieved sustained economic growth and income levels well above subsistence.

II. Theories of Development A. Malthusian theory of development: Theory that income per person can never rise much above subsistence level, because if it does, population will grow rapidly and soon drive the income per person back to the subsistence level.

B. Colonialism, European settlements, and institutions 1. When Europeans migrated to other parts of the world, they had an incentive to establish protective institutions when they planned to settle permanently in a region.

2. This long-term commitment provided the European settlers with a strong incentive to establish institutions that protected individual rights and limited the powers of government.

3. Even after independence, the colonial institutional influences remained impacted on institutions and policies.

C. Neoclassical production function theory of development 1. The neoclassical theory explains the breakout of the Malthusian trap and the growth of per capita income and also suggests the ingredients for strong economic growth: large investments in physical capital and education, and rapid advancements in technology.

2. This theory focuses on the inputs of physical and human capital and technological advances as the sources of economic growth. Output is a function of three things: a. physical capital (machines, structures, tools, etc.) b. human capital (education and training) c. technology D. Geography and development 1. Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University has been at the forefront of those arguing that geographic factors such as climate, location, and access to an ocean coastline are primary determinants of economic development and growth.

2. Climate and location exert an impact on the quality of institutions. When a hot, humid climate remote from major markets makes a country an unattractive location for productive activities, the gains derived from a legal system that provides for secure property rights and even-handed enforcement of contracts will be small.

3. Exhibit 2 depicts the list of the 40 most disadvantaged countries on the basis of their (1) distance from major markets; (2) hot, humid, and disease-prone climate; and (3) proportion of the population residing within 100 kilometers of an ice-free ocean coastline.

III. The Transportation Communication Revolution A. Large reductions in transportation and communication costs propelled higher growth rates of GDP per capita beginning around 1970. The acceleration of economic growth in developing countries was particularly strong.

IV. The Transportation Communication Revolution and Economic Development A. Virtuous cycle of development: The reduction in the birth rate, slower population growth, and increase in the share of population in the prime working-age categories that generally provide a boost to productivity and economic growth once per capita GDP begins to grow. This pattern is nearly always observed soon after a country begins the growth process.

1. The reductions in transportation and communication costs will expand the volume of international trade, enlarging the gains from specialization and adoption of mass production techniques.

2. The lower transportation and communication costs will lead to larger gains from entrepreneurship and the adoption of advanced technologies and successful business practices employed in other countries.

3. The lower transportation and communication costs will also increase the incentive to adopt economic policies more consistent with growth and development.

4. Once the growth process begins, countries experience a virtuous cycle of development that will cause the growth rate of per capita GDP to accelerate.

V. The Transportation Communication Revolution and the Historic Economic Progress of the Past 50 Years A. Growth of high-income and developing countries during the past half-century 1. Exhibit 6 shows the 15-year moving average of the annual growth rate of real per capita GDP for the high-income countries, less geographically disadvantaged developing countries, and 40 most geographically disadvantaged developing countries.

2. From 1985–2000, the average annual growth rate of the less geographically disadvantaged developing countries was 3.4 percent, compared to 2.1 percent for the high-income countries. By 2016, that growth advantage was even greater—5.0 percent for the developing group compared to 0.8 percent for the high-income countries.

B. Countries with the best and worst growth records 1. Exhibit 7 presents data on the growth of real GDP per person for (a) high-growth economies, (b) high-income developed nations, and (c) the economies with the worst growth records.

2. China, Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos, and India head the list of the fastest-growing economies.

3. 4 percent annual growth rate means that GDP per person doubles every generation, approximately 17.5 years.

C. Dramatic reduction in the worldwide poverty rate 1. World extreme (58.6% to 24.3%) and moderate (41.3% to 9.2%) poverty rate have been declining since 1980.

2. Persons with incomes of less than $1.90 per day (measured in 2011 international dollars) are classified as extremely poor by the World Bank.

3. Persons with incomes of less than $3.20 per day (measured in 2011 international dollars) are classified by the World Bank as living in moderate poverty.

VI. The Transportation-Communication Revolution Versus the Industrial Revolution A. In the past half century, huge reductions in the cost of transportation and communication have led to dramatically higher rates of integration, entrepreneurial activity, and exchange of both goods and ideas among people living in high- and lowincome countries.

B. The Industrial Revolution resulted in substantial income gains for between 12 and 15 percent of the world‘s population.

C. The growth rates during the Transportation-Communication Revolution have been more rapid than they were during the Industrial Revolution. From 1960–2015, the real per capita GDP of developing countries outside of sub-Saharan Africa rose by 549 percent, an even larger increase than that following the Industrial Revolution.

D. While the Industrial Revolution increased income inequality, the TransportationCommunication Revolution has reduced it. Following the Industrial Revolution, income levels in the high-income countries grew, while they stagnated in the rest of the world.

VII. The Future of Economic Development A. Democracy: A form of political organization in which adult citizens are free to participate in the political process (vote, lobby, and choose among candidates), elections are free and open, and majority voting, either directly or by elected representatives, decides outcomes.

B. The huge reductions in transportation and communication costs of recent decades were driven by technology and entrepreneurship.

C. Compared to the past, we now have better knowledge and stronger evidence about the types of economic institutions and policies that enhance human progress.

D. Market exchange is based on agreement and mutual gain. When markets are open and property rights are well defined, market activities will persist only when they are mutually advantageous.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  What was life like before 1800, and how did the Industrial Revolution change life throughout the world?  How have history, geography, demography, technology, and entrepreneurship influenced both economic institutions and development?  How did the huge reductions in transportation and communication costs of the past halfcentury alter economic development? How did income levels, economic growth, and poverty rates change during this era?  How do the changes in economic growth and breadth of development of the past halfcentury compare with the Industrial Revolution?

CONTEXT This chapter points to the history of economic development in the past 1,000 years. The impact of the Industrial Revolution and the transport-communication revolution is discussed and the differences and similarities between the two elaborated upon. Three theories of economics are presented and their role in economic progress is offered. The reduction in transportation and communication costs and the resulting gains in trade are discussed as well.

The text points out the income differences across countries; data presented shows the reduction in poverty rates in the past 50 years. However, the fastest-growing countries are lessdeveloped countries.

Lastly, the chapter notes that market exchange is based on agreement and mutual gain. When markets are open and property rights are well defined, market activities will persist only when

they are mutually advantageous. Economic institutions and policies reflect political choices. The future challenge is to bring political decision-making into closer harmony with economic policies and institutions supportive of human progress.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

Review with students the data of Exhibit 1. This exhibit highlights the differences across countries in GDP per capita for both high-income and developing countries.

2.

Exhibit 2 depicts the 40 most geographically disadvantaged countries; the text discusses the role that geography plays on the economic development of these countries. This exhibit can be used to initiate student discussions.

3.

Exhibit 3 shows that in the past half-century, there has been a huge reduction in transportation and communication costs. The result of this is a second economic revolution: the Transportation-Communication Revolution.

4.

Discuss the role of the Industrial and Transportation-Communication revolutions. Like the Industrial Revolution, the Transportation-Communication Revolution of the past half-century has exerted a huge impact on the world. Compared to the earlier revolution, the more recent economic revolution has exerted an impact on a larger share of the world‘s population, growth has been substantially more rapid per capita GDP, and income inequality worldwide has decreased rather than increased.

5.

Critical Analysis questions 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, and 14 should provide ample material with which to stimulate student participation in a discussion of the major points of this chapter.

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 4. During the past half century, expansion in international trade, increased entrepreneurial activities, improvements in economic institutions, and changes in demographics have triggered a remarkable increase in the living standards of people throughout the world. There are four reasons why these reductions in transportation and communication costs will promote economic development: (1) gains from reductions in transaction costs and expansion in international trade; (2) increased gains from entrepreneurship and adoption of technology and successful business practices from other countries; (3) improved economic institutions; and (4) a virtuous cycle of development. (Source: The Transportation‐Communication Revolution: 50 Years of Dramatic Change in Economic Development by Joseph Connors, James D. Gwartney, and Hugo M. Montesinos, CATO Journal, Winter 2020).

6.

The virtuous cycle of development relates to a reduction in the birth rate, slower population growth, and an increase in the share of population in the prime working-age categories that provide a boost to productivity and economic growth once per capita GDP begins to grow.

This pattern is nearly always observed soon after a country begins the growth process. These demographic changes exert an impact on the pattern of economic growth. The expansion in the share of the population in the high-productivity, prime working age category of the highincome countries during 1970–2000 and the less geographically disadvantaged developing countries during 1975–2017 enhanced their economic growth. With an increase in economic conditions, employment rates tend to be lower, resulting in a positive impact on poverty rates.

Chapter 18 (16 Micro) Gaining from International Trade OUTLINE I. The Trade Sector of the United States A. The size of the trade sector has grown rapidly in recent years.

B. Both exports and imports were approximately 10 percent of the economy in 1980. In 2019, exports accounted for 11.7 percent of GDP output, while imports summed to 14.6 percent.

C. Canada, Mexico , and China are the leading trading partners of the United States.

II. Gains from Specialization and Trade A. Law of comparative advantage: A group of individuals, regions, or nations can produce a larger joint output if each specializes in the production of the goods for which it is a low opportunity cost producer and trades for those goods for which it is a high opportunity cost producer.

1. International trade leads to mutual gain because it allows each country to specialize more fully in the production of those things that it does best.

2. Trade permits each country to use more of its resources to produce those goods that it can produce at a relatively low cost.

3. With trade, it will be possible for the trading partners to consume a bundle of goods that it would be impossible for them to produce domestically.

4. Absolute advantage: A situation in which a nation, as the result of its previous experience and/or natural endowments, can produce more of a good (with the same amount of resources) than another nation can.

5. As long as relative production costs of the two goods differ between two countries—for example, United States and Japan—gains from trade will be possible.

B. How trade expands consumption possibilities 1. Trade permits nations to expand their joint output; it also allows each nation to expand its consumption possibilities.

C. Some real-world considerations 1. In addition to the gains derived from specialization in areas of comparative advantage, international trade leads to gains from: a. Economies of scale: International trade allows both domestic producers and consumers to gain from reductions in per-unit costs that often accompany large-scale production, marketing, and distribution. b. More competitive markets: International trade promotes competition in domestic markets and allows consumers to purchase a wide variety of goods at economical prices. c. More pressure to adopt sound institutions: The gains from trade and the resulting prosperity can motivate political leaders to establish sound institutions and adopt constructive policies.

III. Supply, Demand, and International Trade A. Impact of trade on markets where U.S. producers have a comparative advantage.

B. Impact of trade in markets where foreigners have a comparative advantage.

C. Summary: Supply, Demand, and Gains from Trade 1. International trade and specialization result in lower prices (and higher domestic consumption) for imported products and higher prices (and lower domestic consumption) for exported products.

2. Trade permits the residents of each nation to concentrate on the things they do best (produce at a low cost), while trading for those they do least well.

IV. The Economics of Trade Restrictions A. The economics of tariffs: Trade restrictions promote inefficiency and reduce the potential gains from exchange.

1. Import restrictions, such as tariffs and quotas, reduce foreign supply to the domestic market thereby causing the domestic price to rise. Thus, such restrictions are subsidies to producers (and workers) in protected industries at the expense of (a) consumers and (b) producers (and workers) in export industries.

2. Jobs protected by import restrictions are offset by jobs destroyed in export industries.

B. The economics of quotas: A specific limit or maximum quantity (or value) of a good permitted to be imported into a country during a given period.

C. Exchange rate controls as a trade restriction: The exchange rate policies of individual countries artificially make trade (export or import) prohibitive.

V. Why Do Nations Adopt Trade Restrictions?

A. Trade restrictions act as barriers in trade 1. The national-defense argument 2. The infant-industry argument 3. The antidumping argument: The sale of goods abroad at a price below their cost (and below their price in the domestic market of the exporting nation) a. Dumping is illegal under U.S. law. b. When considering the merits of anti-dumping restrictions, it is important to remember that (a) firms with large inventories may find it in their interest to offer goods at prices below their cost of production, (b) domestic firms are permitted to engage in this practice, and (c) the lower prices associated with dumping benefit domestic purchasers.

4. Special interests and the politics of trade restrictions a. Trade restrictions provide highly visible, concentrated benefits for a small group of people, while imposing widely dispersed costs that are often difficult to identify on the general citizenry. b. Politicians have a strong incentive to favor special interest issues, even if they conflict with economic efficiency. c. The power of special-interest groups provides the primary source for trade restrictions.

VI. Do More Open Economies Perform Better?

A. Trade openness: the freedom of individuals to engage in voluntary exchange across national boundaries.

1. Countries are rated on a scale of 0 to 10, with 10 representing more trade openness). To score high, a country has to maintain low tariff rates, maintain a freely convertible currency (no exchange rate controls), and refrain from imposing quotas and other regulations that restrict its residents from trading with foreigners.

VII. Trade Barriers and Popular Trade Fallacies A. Trade fallacy 1: Trade restrictions that limit imports save jobs and expand employment.

1. Trade restrictions do not ―save‖ jobs; they merely reshuffle them. Restriction will mean more Americans working in areas where we do not have a comparative advantage.

B. Trade fallacy 2: Free trade with low-wage countries like Mexico and China will reduce the wages of Americans.

1. Wages are relatively high in the United States because American workers are more productive than those in other countries. They are not the result of trade restrictions.

VIII. Institutions and the Changing Nature of Global Trade A. The growth of the trade sector has been propelled by technological advancements, lower transport cost, and more liberal trade policies.

B. GATT and the WTO C. NAFTA and Other Regional Trade Agreements D. 2018: United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  How has the volume of international trade changed in recent decades?  Under what conditions can a nation gain from international trade?  What effects do trade restrictions have on an economy?  How have open economies performed relative to those that are more closed?  What accounts for the political popularity of trade restraints?  Do trade restrictions create jobs? Does trade with low-wage countries depress wage rates

CONTEXT This chapter focuses on the microeconomic aspects of international trade. The law of comparative advantage and the concept of gaining from specialization and trade are central to the analysis.

These tools were introduced in Chapter 2. Thus, instructors may want to have their students review that material prior to their reading of this chapter.

After analyzing the impact of international trade on export and import markets, various trade restrictions are discussed. The impact of trade restrictions on aggregate output is considered.

Tariff legislation is analyzed. While there are a few partially valid arguments for trade restrictions, protectionist legislation for most industries is based on fallacious reasoning (remember the secondary effects) and the special-interest effect. The chapter discusses the question of open economies and if they perform better than more closed economies. The text also discusses both the economic and political consequences of protectionist policies.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

Exhibit 1 indicates the size of trade sector as a share of the economy in the United States rose substantially between 1960 and 2019. By 2019, imports and exports combined were equal to about 26.3 percent of GDP.

2.

It is important that students see the link between exports and imports. Exports provide the purchasing power (foreign currencies) with which U.S. consumers purchase foreign goods, services, and assets. Without exports, we would be unable to import. Similarly, our imports provide foreigners with the dollars with which they purchase our exports. If foreigners did not sell to us, they would lack the purchasing power with which to buy U.S.-made goods (U.S. exports). Thus, policies limiting imports to the United States will, in the long run, also limit the demand for our exports.

3.

Students have trouble distinguishing between absolute and comparative advantage.

Numerical examples help to illustrate this distinction. Exhibits 4 and 5 use a numerical example to illustrate that total output can be expanded and both trading partners can gain from trade even when the productivity per worker-hour for all goods is greater in one country than another. Since this important concept is so difficult for students to understand, we recommend that you take a class period to go through these exhibits or a similar numerical example.

4.

Exhibits 6 and 7 illustrate how trade influences domestic markets. Emphasize that when the United States has a comparative advantage in production, domestic producers will be able to

compete effectively in the international market. Trade will permit the U.S. producers to expand output and obtain a higher price when they a have a comparative advantage in production. Simultaneously, trade permits a nation to obtain goods at a lower cost when it is at a comparative disadvantage in production. Thus, compared to the no-trade situation, international trade permits a nation to (a) sell at a higher price when it is a relatively efficient producer of a good and (b) buy at a lower price when it is relatively inefficient producer of a good. The process also permits an expansion in the joint output of the trading partners.

5.

Tariffs and quotas nearly always pit the welfare of well-organized, concentrated, industrial and labor interests of a protected industry against the unorganized consumer. Thus, the special interest effect explains why trade restrictions will be commonplace even though they typically promote economic inefficiency.

6.

The argument that trade restrictions save jobs fails to consider the secondary effects.

Although jobs are saved in the protected industries, the decline in our imports reduces the demand for our exports and increases the costs of exporters, reducing their international competitiveness. Thus jobs are destroyed in export-based industries. The latter effect typically goes unnoticed.

7.

Many laypersons believe that the United States cannot compete in international markets because wage rates are higher in the United States than in most other countries. Of course, if output per hour is high, high wage rates need not mean high labor costs. The myth on free trade and low wages deals with this topic. Many instructors may want to use it as the focal point for a classroom discussion.

8.

An interesting classroom application for this chapter is to ask students whether grades reflect absolute or comparative advantages in the classroom. Your grade in a given class represents your absolute advantage in that class since grades are usually based on achievement, not the work put in to obtain it. For your college career as a whole, your GPA is a measure of your absolute advantage or disadvantage compared with other students. Your comparative advantage is (imperfectly) revealed as areas where your grades are higher than your overall GPA, and symmetrically for comparative disadvantages.

9.

Exhibit 11 can be used to spark a comparison between open and closed economies.

10. Critical Analysis questions 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 12, and 16 should provide ample material with which to stimulate student participation in a discussion of the major points of this chapter.

11. It is helpful to go back to the earlier circular flow diagram to show the linkage between exports and imports. Another help in visualizing the financial market effects of trade flows is to think in terms of dollars piling up on the shores of countries with trade surpluses, then asking what people in those counties will do with the dollars.

12. Since the logic of the gains from trade to individuals is the same as that for international trade, one helpful way to frame the issues of import restrictions is to ask when it would be in an individual‘s interest to impose similar restrictions on his own personal trades with others and then ask what difference it makes when we are talking about countries rather than individuals. Similarly, the text discussion of trade barriers between the states can be linked to a discussion of the commerce clause of the Constitution.

13. Activity 1 helps students understand the debate regarding free trade and protectionism.

ACTIVITY 1. Free Trade or Protection?

Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class assignment effects of protectionism, free trade Chapter 18: Gaining from International Trade none 60 minutes works in any size class

Purpose This assignment leads the students through several trade issues. Many students, including those who can make an economic argument for free trade, have an emotional attachment to protectionism. This exercise examines the rationale for protecting jobs and looks at the direct and indirect costs.

Instructions Ask the class to answer the following questions. Give them time to write an answer to a question, then discuss their answers before moving to the next question.

Question 4 is the hardest for students to answer; some additional explanation can help. If consumers pay a total of $100,000 extra to save 100 U.S. jobs, then the cost of saving a job is $1000.

1. Which to do you favor, free trade or protection? Explain why.

2. Assume you are voting on a request before the U.S. International Trade Commission to raise the tariff on imports of rubber thread. Rubber thread is made from latex and is a relatively small industry. It is used in the manufacture of elastic in items like socks, underwear, and bungee cords. Increasing the tariff would allow the U.S. producers to avoid layoffs and to invest in technology.

Would you vote for the tariff increase, or against it?

3. More generally, what are the benefits of keeping a job in the United States?

4. The costs of protectionism are paid by consumers in the form of higher prices. The obvious question is, ―at what point do these costs exceed the benefits?‖ In your opinion, how much extra should consumers pay to keep a job in the United States? (Express this figure in dollars/per job.)

Common answers and points for discussion 1. Which to do you favor, free trade or protection? Explain why.

Many classes will split about evenly on this question. Many points can be presented but the argument usually comes down to economic efficiency versus jobs.

2. Assume you are voting on a request before the U.S. International Trade Commission to raise the tariff on imports of rubber thread. Rubber thread is made from latex and is a relatively small industry. It is used in the manufacture of elastic in items like socks, underwear, and bungee cords. Increasing the tariff would allow the U.S. producers to avoid layoffs and to invest in technology.

Would you vote for the tariff increase, or against it?

Many students, including those who generally favor free trade, will vote to increase the tariff in this particular case.

3. More generally, what are the benefits of keeping a job in the United States?

Workers pay taxes and purchase goods from other companies. Social service costs are avoided. Companies earn higher profits. Communities are healthier.

4. The costs of protectionism are paid by consumers in the form of higher prices. The obvious question is, ―at what point do these costs exceed the benefits?‖ In your opinion, how much extra should consumers pay to keep a job in the United States? (Express this figure in dollars/per job.)

A complete free trader would say ―Zero. It‘s worth nothing to protect a job in my country.‖ A few students will take this stand.

Most students will choose a dollar figure from $100 to $10,000. A few may go somewhat higher.

These figures are dwarfed by the actual costs of saving American jobs through trade barriers. Estimates range from $60,000 per worker (in the bicycle industry) to $750,000 per worker (in the steel industry.)

This is far above the actual earning of these workers. It would be cheaper to pay them a lump sum to retire. Subsidizing workers through trade laws is a very inefficient method of helping them. The benefits students list in question 3 are real, but very small compared to the costs.

Returning to Question 2, do we really save American jobs by increasing tariffs? Increasing the price of inputs hurts the competitiveness of U.S. businesses. In the rubber thread case, 10 times as many U.S. workers are employed in industries that use rubber thread as an input.

Voting to protect workers in the rubber thread industry puts workers in the sock, underwear, and bungee cord industries at risk.

More generally, increases in U.S. trade barriers cause other countries to retaliate. This puts workers in our export industries at risk. Our most efficient industries are hurt by efforts to protect our least efficient industries.

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 7.

Data from November 2019 shows roughly 1,000 more jobs were created compared to March 2018 when the tariffs were implemented. The tariffs may have led to this increase in steel jobs, and they have also prevented some additional steel jobs from disappearing. However, the effect on employment in steel production is likely to be muted by technological innovation. Technological progress plays an important role in displacing workers in steel production, similar to many areas of manufacturing, as new technologies have allowed steel companies to produce more with fewer workers. [Lydia Cox and Kadee Russ, February 6, 2020]

8.

a. No. Americans would be poorer if we used more of our resources to produce things for which we are a high-opportunity-cost producer and less of our resources to produce things for which we are a low-opportunity-cost producer. Employment might either increase or decrease, but the key point is that it is the value of goods produced, not employment, that generates income and provides for the wealth of a nation. The answer to (b) is the same as (a).

13. Challenge students to think about the following questions: (1) Are we harmed by an increase in imports? (2) Would we be better off if stereo equipment, automobiles, clothing, and other products produced by foreigners were more expensive? (3) Are low opportunity cost producers driven out of business by foreign producers? (4) Does the availability of economical goods from abroad reduce the efficiency of resources used at home? and (5) What do foreigners do with the excess dollars they derive when we import more than we export?

14. The quota reduces the supply of sugar to the domestic market and drives up the domestic price of sugar. Domestic producers benefit from the higher prices at the expense of domestic consumers (see Exhibit 9). Studies indicate that the quota expanded the gross income of the 11,000 domestic sugar farmers by approximately $130,000 per farm in the mid-1980s, at the expense (in the form of higher prices of sugar and sugar products) of approximately $6 per year to the average domestic consumer. Because the program channels resources away from products for which the United States has a comparative advantage, it reduces the productive capacity of the United States. Both the special-interest nature of the issue and rent-seeking theory explain the political attractiveness of the program.

Chapter 19 (17 Micro) International Finance and the Foreign Exchange Market OUTLINE I. Foreign Exchange Market A. Market where one currency is trade for another.

B. The exchange rate enables people in one country to translate the prices of foreign goods into units of their own currency.

C. Appreciation of a nation‘s currency will make foreign goods cheaper. Depreciation will make foreign goods more expensive.

II. Determinants of the Exchange Rate A. Under a flexible rate system, exchange rate is determined by supply and demand.

1. The dollar demand for foreign exchange originates from the demand of Americans for foreign goods, services, and assets (either real or financial).

2. The supply of foreign exchange originates from sales of goods, services, and assets from Americans to foreigners.

3. The foreign exchange market will bring the quantity demanded and quantity supplied into balance. As it does so, it will also bring the purchases by Americans from foreigners into equality with the sales by Americans to foreigners.

III. Why Do Exchange Rates Change?

A. The following factors will cause a currency to depreciate: 1. Changes in income: Rapid growth of income (relative to trading partners) that stimulates imports relative to exports.

2. Differences in rates of inflation: Higher rate of inflation than one‘s trading partners.

3. Changes in interest rates: Reduction in domestic real interest rates.

4. Changes in the business and investment climate: A shift toward sound policies that attract an inflow of capital B. The following factors will cause a currency to appreciate: 1. Slow growth relative to one‘s trading partners.

2. Lower inflation than one‘s trading partners.

3. Increase in domestic real interest rates.

4. A shift toward unsound policies that cause an outflow of capital.

IV. International Finance and Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes A. Fixed rate, unified currency system: Eleven nations of the European Union have recent adopted a unified currency system. Countries can also use a currency board to unify their currency with another. The currencies of Hong Kong, Argentina, and Panama are unified with the U.S. dollar.

B. Pegged exchange rate regime 1. A nation can either (a) follow an independent monetary policy and allow its exchange rate to fluctuate or (b) tie its monetary policy to the maintenance of the fixed exchange rate. It cannot, however, maintain the convertibility of its currency at the fixed exchange rate while following a monetary policy more expansionary than that of the country to which the domestic currency is tied.

2. Attempts to peg rates and follow a monetary policy that is too expansionary have led to several recent financial crises—a situation where falling foreign currency reserves eventually force the country to forego the pegged exchange rate.

V. Balance of Payments A. Any transaction that creates a demand for foreign currency (and a supply of the domestic currency) in the foreign exchange market is recorded as a debit, or minus, item. Imports are an example of a debit item.

B. Transactions that create a supply of foreign currency (and demand for the domestic currency) on the foreign exchange market are recorded as a credit, or plus, items.

Exports are an example of a credit item.

C. Under a pure flexible system, the quantity demanded will equal the quantity supplied in the foreign exchange market. Thus, the total debits will equal the total credits in the balance of payments accounts.

D. Current-account transactions 1. Current account: All payments (and gifts) related to the purchase or sale of goods and services and income flows during the current period 2. The four categories of current-account transactions are: a. merchandise trade—import and export of goods. b. service trade—import and export of services. c. income from investments. d. unilateral transfers—gift to and from foreigners.

E. Balance on current account: The import–export balance of goods and services, plus net investment income earned abroad, plus net private and government transfers F. Capital-account transactions 1. Capital-account: transactions that involve changes in the ownership of real and financial assets 2. Both (1) direct investments by foreigners in the United States and by Americans abroad and (2) loans to and from foreigners are counted as capital transactions.

G. Official reserve account: The record of transactions among central banks H. The balance of payments must balance: Under a pure flexible-rate system, official reserve transactions are zero; therefore, a current-account deficit implies a capitalaccount surplus. Similarly, a current-account surplus implies a capital-account deficit.

Current-Account Balance + Capital-Account Balance + Official Reserve Account Balance = 0

VI. Exchange Rates, Current Account Balance, and Capital Inflow A. Are trade deficits good or bad?

1. With flexible exchange rates, an inflow of capital implies a trade (current-account) deficit.

2. If a nation‘s investment environment is attractive, it is likely to result in a net inflow of capital and trade deficit. a. When this inflow of capital is channeled into productive investments, this is a positive development.

3. However, if the inflow of capital is used to finance current consumption or for the finance of unproductive projects, it will exert an adverse impact on future income. a. In recent years, a substantial share of the U.S. trade deficits has arisen from this source.

B. Should trade between countries balance?

1. Political leaders often imply that U.S. exports to a country, China or Japan for example, should be approximately equal to our imports from that country. a. This is a fallacious view.

2. Under a flexible exchange rate system, overall purchases from foreigners will balance with overall sales to foreigners, but there is no reason why bilateral trade between any two countries will balance.

3. Rather than balance, economics indicates that a country will tend to experience the following: a. trade surpluses with trading partners that buy a lot of goods that it supplies at a low cost, and, b. trade deficits with trading partners that are economical suppliers of goods that can be produced domestically only at a high cost.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  What determines the exchange rate value of the dollar relative to other currencies?  Why do exchange rates change?  What are the alternative types of exchange rate systems? Which types work well and which will lead to financial problems?  What information is included in the balance-of-payments accounts of a nation? Will the balance-of-payments accounts of a country always be in balance?  Is a balance-of-trade deficit bad?

CONTEXT Trade between nations involves the exchange of currencies as well as the exchange of goods. This exchange of currencies gives rise to a special market—the foreign exchange market. In this chapter, we analyze the major factors affecting the price of a nation‘s domestic currency relative to other currencies (the exchange rate) on the foreign exchange market.

This chapter analyzes the operation of a flexible exchange rate system. The impact of changes in the growth of income, inflation rates, and interest rate on the foreign exchange market are considered. The effects of monetary and fiscal policy under a flexible exchange rate system are discussed.

The chapter also provides a discussion of the other two types of exchange-rate regimes: (1) fixed-rate, unified currency, and (2) pegged exchange rates.

The chapter also includes an exploration of balance of payments accounts—the classification of debit and credit items in the balance of payments accounts. The major purpose of this chapter is to promote student understanding of the special problems that arise when goods are exchanged by trading partners who use different currencies.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

The Wall Street Journal publishes current exchange rate information in each issue. Some instructors will want to update the exchange rate data of Exhibit 1.

2.

When you explain the determination of exchange rates, frequent examples will promote student understanding. Use them freely. When U.S. customers purchase cars, steel, ownership shares (stocks), bonds, foreign travel, or any other good, service, or asset abroad, their actions supply dollars to the foreign exchange market. Similarly, when foreigners purchase goods, services, or assets supplied by U.S. sellers, their actions create a demand for dollars on the exchange market. Describe several exchanges, explaining how they influence the supply and demand for a nation‘s currency on the exchange market.

3.

Depreciation (and appreciation) are easily confused. When the dollar price of a foreign currency increases, more dollars will be needed to buy units of the foreign currency (and foreign goods). Therefore, the dollar has depreciated. Its purchasing power abroad has declined. A depreciation (appreciation) in the value of the dollar means that the dollar price of the foreign currency has risen (fallen).

4.

Students sometimes confuse a currency depreciation with inflation. A 10 percent depreciation in the value of the dollar increases the price of foreign goods and services by 10 percent, but leaves the purchasing power of the dollar for domestic goods unchanged. Thus, a currency depreciation is not the same thing as inflation.

5.

In order to avoid confusion, it is easiest to visualize investment abroad not as the export of capital but rather as the import of a stream of future income (from a bond or stock). Thus, the importation of future income has the same impact on a nation‘s balance of payments as the importation of goods and services.

6.

The Thumbnail Sketch summarizes the major factors that will cause either an appreciation or depreciation of a nation‘s currency under a flexible rate system. Carefully explain how: (a) different rates of economic growth, (b) differential inflation rates, (c) differential real interest rates, and (d) differential investment climates influence the exchange rate market.

7.

With the shift from fixed to flexible exchange rates, the balance of trade and balance on current account assumes greater significance. Explain why the balance on current account helps to determine how international trade influences a nation‘s debtor-creditor status. (Note: With flexible exchange rates, the significance of an overall balance of payments deficit or surplus is minimized since intervention is not required to bring about a balance in the exchange market.)

8.

Any transaction that supplies a nation‘s domestic currency to the foreign exchange market is recorded as a debit in the nation‘s balance of payments account. Similarly, transactions that create a demand for the nation‘s currency on the foreign exchange market are entered as credits. Thus, the importation of goods, services, bonds, and stocks from foreigners are all debits, whereas the exportation of these items is considered a credit.

9.

Be sure to emphasize that the balance of payments must balance. Under a flexible exchange system (official reserve balance equals zero), this means that a nation running a capital account surplus must also run a current account deficit. Thus, a nation with a low saving rate and rapidly growing workforce that attracts substantial investment funds from abroad will tend to run a capital account surplus and a current account deficit under a flexible rate system. Many economists believe this situation is descriptive of the U.S. economy in recent years.

10. It is important to note that exchange rates are always moving in the wrong direction for someone, so there are always complaints about government policy in this area. For example, exporters and the import-substitute industries want a weaker dollar, but importers want a stronger one.

11. One interesting classroom illustration involves the impact of a change in oil prices on exchange rates. Oil is priced internationally in dollars. In the early 1980s, as oil prices in dollars went down, the exchange rate value of the dollar rose sharply. For a period, oil was

getting cheaper in the United States (a positive supply shock) but more expensive in many other countries (a negative supply shock), with important differential effects between countries.

12. Be sure to review the non-flexible exchange rate regimes. It is worth mentioning that eleven nations of the European Union have recently adopted a unified currency system. An alternative method of unifying the currencies is to use a currency board. The currencies of Hong Kong and Panama are unified with the U.S. dollar. It is important to note that, in order to be effective, pegged rate systems require that a nation follow a monetary policy consistent with the maintenance of the pegged rate. Political pressure often makes this difficult to do.

13. Activities 1 to 3 will help reinforce the material in Chapter 19.

14. Critical Analysis question 5 provides material that should help students understand the determinants of exchange rates. Questions 2, 7, 9, 13, and 15 provide material suitable for a classroom discussion on the major topics of this chapter.

ACTIVITIES 1. International Beer Consumption Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class demonstration exchange rates Chapter 19: International Finance and the Foreign Exchange Market three imported beers, foreign currency 3 minutes works in any size class

Purpose This demonstration introduces exchange rates.

Instructions Tell the class this story, ―I went to the bar the other night with two friends. We each ordered a beer: a Corona, a Beck‘s, and a Molson. The bartender brought us our drinks.‖ Put the beers on the podium. ―Then he said, ‗That‘ll be 100 pesos, 3 marks, and 2 Canadian dollars.‘‖ ―Luckily, we had it.‖ Drop the currency on the podium.

Ask the class, ―What could we have done if we didn‘t have those currencies?‖ Points for discussion The answer is obviously: pay in U.S. dollars, but the markets behind that are interesting.

The beers were produced in Mexico, Germany, and Canada. The brewers‘ expenses were incurred in pesos, marks, and Canadian dollars. Their workers don‘t want to be paid in a foreign currency, nor do their suppliers.

The only reason we can buy these products with U.S. dollars is that someone is willing to trade marks, pesos, and Canadian dollars for U.S. currency. This demand for dollars, together with the supply of dollars, determines the exchange rate.

2. A Profitable Opportunity Type: Topics: Textbook: Materials Needed: Time: Class limitations:

In-class assignment exchange rates, arbitrage Chapter 19: International Finance and the Foreign Exchange Market none 20 minutes works in any size class

Purpose This assignment requires students to practice calculating prices with exchange rates and looking for profit opportunities. The numbers used in this example are actual transaction prices from 1990.

Instructions Explain the following situation to the class. Labatt‘s beer is produced in Canada, and sold in many countries. In the province of Ontario, a six-pack of Labatt‘s beer sold for $6.60 Canadian. Across the border in Michigan, a six pack of the same beer was on sale for $2.75 U.S. At the time, the exchange rate was $0.75 U.S. = $1.00 Canadian.

Ask the class to make the following calculations.

1. How much would it cost in U.S. currency to buy the beer in Ontario?

2. How much would it cost in Canadian currency to buy the beer in Michigan?

3. Is there an arbitrage opportunity?

4. If there is an arbitrage opportunity where would you buy and where would you sell? How much profit could you expect on a six-pack?

5. Why might the price differential exist?

Common answers and points for discussion 1. How much would it cost in U.S. currency to buy the beer in Ontario?

6.60 × 0.75 = $4.95 U.S. 2. How much would it cost in Canadian currency to buy the beer in Michigan?

2.75/0.75 = $3.67 Canadian 3. Is there an arbitrage opportunity?

Yes. A price differential exits. The beer is more expensive in Canada, cheaper in the United States.

4. If there is an arbitrage opportunity where would you buy and where would you sell? How much profit could you expect on a six-pack?

Buy in Michigan, sell in Ontario. The profit per six-pack would be the difference between the price in Ontario, $4.95, and the price in Michigan, $2.75, which equals $2.20 U.S. (Or, measured in Canadian currency, a profit of $2.93 Canadian.)

5. Why might the price differential exist?

This is a substantial price difference. Neither transportation costs, nor duties and tariffs can explain the difference. The beer is produced in Canada, yet is cheaper after being brought across the border.

Other explanations must be sought. In Ontario, beer retailing is a monopoly. Beer can only be bought at ―The Beer Store‖ (formerly called, ―Brewer‘s Retail.‖) Taxes are certainly different in the two locations.

Transportation costs and import regulations, as well as restrictions on retail sales in Ontario, may prevent arbitrage from eliminating the price difference.

3. Comparing International Prices Type: Topics: Textbook: Class limitations:

Take-home assignment exchange rates, arbitrage, purchasing power parity Chapter 19: International Finance and the Foreign Exchange Market works in any size class

Purpose This assignment has students practicing working with exchange rates and comparing prices in two countries. The numbers used in this example are actual prices from 1997.

Instructions Ask the class to find retail prices for goods from the following list. They should convert prices to a common currency to compare the relative costs between the two countries. Most students will find comparisons easier if Dominican prices are converted into U.S. dollars. Ask them to explain the biggest price differentials.

Name

Principles of Economics International Price Comparisons

1. Go to a local store and find prices for ten (or more) of the goods shown below.

2. Use the exchange rate of $1.00 US = 14 Dominican Pesos to compare the prices in each country.

3. Circle the three items with the largest price differences.

4. Why might prices differ?

Product

Price in Santo Domingo, DR (Dominican Pesos)

avocado

5.45

rice, 1 pound

5.45

beer, 6-pack

59.95

rum, 700 cc

42.75

Tanquery Gin, 750 ml

189.00

Campbell‘s tomato soup

15.95

Kellogg‘s Corn Flakes, 11.2 oz

29.95

Pepperidge Farm Cookies, 6 oz

36.95

corn oil, 96 oz

75.95

butter, 1/4 pound

7.95

hot dog rolls, 8 rolls

14.00

coffee, 1 pound

29.95

sugar, 1 pound

4.30

Chiclets gum, 3 boxes

14.45

milk, 1/2 gallon

24.95

chicken, pound

13.95

large eggs, 1 dozen

16.95

unleaded gasoline, gal

32.00

Calculate local price (U.S. dollars) for price comparison

Common Answers and points for discussion Price in Santo Domingo, DR Product (Dominican Pesos) avocado 5.45 rice, 1 pound 5.45 beer, 6-pack 59.95 rum, 700 cc 42.75 Tanquery Gin, 750 ml 189.00 Campbell‘s tomato soup 15.95 Kellogg‘s Corn Flakes, 11.2 oz 29.95 Pepperidge Farm Cookies, 6 oz 36.95 Corn oil, 96 oz 75.95 butter, 1/4 pound 7.95 hot dog rolls, 8 rolls 14.00 coffee, 1 pound 29.95 sugar, 1 pound 4.30 Chiclets gum, 3 boxes 14.45 milk, 1/2 gallon 24.95 chicken, pound 13.95 large eggs, 1 dozen 16.95 unleaded gasoline, gal 32.00

Calculate local price (U.S. dollars) for price comparison $0.39 0.39 4.28 3.05 13.50 1.14 2.13 2.63 5.45 0.56 1.00 2.14 0.31 1.03 1.78 1.00 1.21 2.28

The items with the largest price differences are typically: Avocados, rum, and coffee are cheaper in the Dominican Republic.

Gasoline is cheaper in the United States.

Some goods do seem to seem to confirm ―the law of one price,‖ but substantial price differences do exist, particularly for the goods mentioned above. Purchasing power parity does not hold consistently.

Reasons for these price differentials include: trade barriers, taxes, and government price controls.

All three of these exist in the United States (particularly for alcohol and agricultural products) and in the Dominican Republic (high tariffs on many imports, government control of gasoline prices).

Cartels may also interfere with price adjustments for some products (such as coffee) and multinational firms may establish price differentials for branded products. If free trade and internal free markets don‘t exist, arbitrage will not eliminate price differences.

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 1. The Japanese cameras will become more expensive, and the quantity purchased by Americans will decline.

6.

Under a flexible exchange rate system, a deficit on current account implies a surplus on capital account. Is it a dangerous thing if the United States runs a surplus on its capital account transactions (and therefore a deficit on current account) because foreigners find investment opportunities in the United States attractive?

11. The current-account balance will move toward a larger deficit (or smaller surplus), and the dollar will appreciate.

12. Not necessarily. It depends on the source of the trade surplus. When a country has a high rate of saving, a strong export sector will be required for the profitable investment of the saving.

In this case, the trade surplus is perfectly consistent with a strong economy. The experience of the Japanese economy during the last several decades is an example of this case. A trade surplus, however, may also arise because a serious recession retards imports or because unsound policies (e.g., high taxes, insecure property rights, or political instability) pose a threat to capital formation. Few would consider a trade surplus arising from these sources as a positive development.

Special Topic 1 Government Spending and Taxation OUTLINE I. Government Expenditures A. Government spending includes both purchases of goods and services and income transfers.

1. About three-fifths of government spending takes place at the federal level. Four categories—income transfers (including Social Security), health care, national defense, and interest on the debt—account for 86 percent of federal spending.

2. At the state and local level, the largest categories of spending are education and public welfare.

B. Federal spending per person, 1792–2019 1. During the first 125 years of U.S. history, federal expenditures per person were small and they grew at a relatively slow rate.

2. Federal spending soared throughout most of the 20th century. In 2008, federal spending per person was over 83 times the level of 1916.

C. The changing composition of federal spending 1. During the last five decades, the composition of federal spending has shifted away from national defense and toward spending on income transfers and health care.

II. Taxes and the Finance of Government A. Types of taxes

1. The federal government derives approximately half of its revenue from the personal income tax and another third from the payroll tax.

2. State and local revenues are derived primarily from sales taxes, income taxes, user charges, and grants from the federal government.

III. Taxes and the Cost of Government A. A tax dollar extracted from an individual or a business ends up costing the private economy much more than just one dollar. This is the case for two main reasons.

1. The collection of taxes is costly.

2. Taxes impose an additional burden on the economy because they will eliminate some productive exchanges (and cause people to undertake some counterproductive activities)..

IV. How Has the Structure of the Personal Income Tax Changed?

A. Even though marginal tax rates have been reduced substantially during the last four decades, upper-income Americans pay a much larger share of the federal income tax today than was previously the case.

B. The top 10 percent of income recipients paid 70.1 percent of the personal income tax in 2017, compared to 49.3 percent in 1980 and 47 percent in 1963.

V. Income Levels and Overall Tax Payments A. The U.S. income tax system is highly progressive—the percentage of income taken from high earners is greater than for those with less income.

VI. Size Of Government: A Cross-Country Comparison A. The size of the U.S. government is smaller than that of Japan and major Western European countries, but larger than a number of high-growth Asian economies.

B. When governments focus on the core activities of providing (1) a legal and enforcement structure that protects people and their property from aggression by others and (2) a limited set of public goods, they promote economic growth. However, when governments grow beyond this size, expanding into activities for which they are ill suited, they deter growth.

VII. How Does the Size of Government Affect Economic Growth?

A. Expansion of government activities beyond a certain point will eventually exert a negative impact on the economy.

VIII. Expenditures, Taxes, Debt Finance, and Democracy A. More than half of American families derive benefits from various transfer programs, while the share of the population paying federal income tax has declined substantially during the past decade.

B. Moreover, large budget deficits have pushed the debt to GDP ratio to levels not seen since the aftermath of World War II. C. These factors, along with upward pressure on expenditures for Social Security and Medicare as the baby-boomers retire, will make it very difficult to control federal finances.

D. Thus, the United States confronts a troublesome fiscal future in the years immediately ahead.

FOCUS QUESTIONS

As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  Historically, how has government spending and its composition changed in the United States?  Do taxes measure the cost of government?  Do the rich pay their fair share of taxes? Do they pay a smaller share now than they did a couple of decades ago?  How has the share of the population paying taxes and receiving various types of transfer benefits changed in recent years? How is this likely to influence the fiscal future of the United States?

CONTEXT In this special topic, we take a closer look at government in the United States. We focus on the taxing and spending activities of government. The feature documents the major categories of government spending and sources of tax revenue. We show that the size of the federal government grew dramatically in the 20th century and early 21st century. Over the past 50 years, federal government spending has moved away from national defense and toward spending on income transfers and health care. With regards to government revenue, the U.S. tax system is highly progressive and the tax burden has increased over time.

Lastly, we show the size of the U.S. government is smaller than that of Japan and major Western European countries, but larger than for a number of high-growth Asian economies. When governments focus on productive activities they promote economic growth. However, when governments expand into activities for which they are ill-suited, they deter growth. The empirical evidence indicates that the governments of most, if not all, industrial countries are larger than the growth-maximizing size.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

Exhibit 1 demonstrates that real federal spending per person (measured in 2012 dollars) was generally less than $50 prior to the Civil War and it ranged from $125 to $200 throughout the 1870–1916 period. However, beginning with the spending build-up for World War I in 1917, real federal spending per person soared, reaching $11,767 in 2019. The 2019 figure is almost 83 times that of 1916.

2.

To provide some information regarding changes in the composition of government spending, review with students Exhibit 2. This exhibit shows that federal government spending, over the past four decades, has shifted away from defense and toward income transfers and health care.

3.

Exhibit 3 shows that almost half of federal revenues are derived from the personal income tax. The payroll tax and corporate income tax are also major sources of federal revenue. The major revenue sources of state and local governments are sales and excise taxes, personal income taxes, user charges, and grants from the federal government.

4.

Students are often surprised at how large a share of the personal income tax burden is borne by those with high incomes. Exhibit 4 shows that about one-third of all federal personal income tax payments are paid by those with the highest 1 percent of income. It also shows

that though marginal tax rates have been reduced substantially since 1980, upper-income Americans still pay a much larger share of the federal income tax today than was true during the earlier year.

5.

Review with students the data in Exhibit 5. It shows that the federal income tax structure is highly progressive. Federal taxes take 26.5 percent of the income generated by the top quintile (20 percent) of earners, compared to 13.9 percent from the middle-income quintile and 1.7 percent from the lowest quintile of earners.

6.

Emphasize to students that a tax dollar extracted from the private sector is more costly than one dollar. This is due to two reasons. First, a cost is incurred to collect taxes. Second, taxes will cause some productive exchanges not to be conducted.

7.

Exhibit 7 will help students understand the relationship between the size of government and economic growth. Increases in the size of government, if it focuses on productive activities, will increase economic growth. However, when governments undertake activities for which they are ill-suited, they decrease economic growth.

8.

The main point of Exhibit 8 is that the governments of most, if not all, industrial countries are larger than the growth-maximizing size. The empirical evidence indicates that a 10 percent rise in government expenditures as a share of GDP lowers the annual growth rate by about 1 percent.

9.

Critical Analysis questions 3 and 5 are good classroom discussion starters.

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 2. The shift away from national defense and toward income transfers and health care is unlikely to improve the operation of the economy. National defense is a public good, while income transfers and health care are not. Public goods will not be provided at an efficient level by the private sector and so the public provision of such goods will improve economic efficiency.

The shift away from public goods will likely decrease economic efficiency.

Special Topic 2 The Economics of Social Security OUTLINE I. The Financing and Determination of Benefits of Social Security A. Social Security does not follow this savings-and-investment model. Instead, it taxes current workers and uses the revenues to finance benefits for existing retirees.

B. The Social Security retirement program is financed by a flat-rate payroll tax of 10.6 percent applicable to employee earnings up to a cutoff level.

C. Because of the pay-as-you-go nature of the program, it is influenced by changing demographics.

D. When there were many workers per beneficiary, it was possible to provide retirees with generous benefits while maintaining a relatively low rate of taxation.

E. The program has matured, and the number of workers per beneficiary has declined.

Payroll taxes have risen greatly over the decades, and still higher taxes will be necessary merely to fund currently promised benefits.

II. Why Is Social Security Headed for Problems?

A. Baby boomers moving into the retirement phase of their life will place strong pressure on the Medicare program as well as the Social Security retirement system.

B. The current deficit of revenues from the payroll tax relative to retirement benefits accelerated around 2016.

C. The number of workers per Social Security retiree will fall from today‘s 2.7 to only 2.3 in 2035.

III. Will the Trust Fund Make It Easier to Deal with the Retirement of the Baby Boomers?

A. This surplus was put in a trust fund ―invested‖ in government bonds.

B. Because the federal government both pays and receives the interest on these bonds, they are not like the bonds, stocks, and physical assets held by a private insurance company.

C. The SSTF bonds are an IOU from the Treasury to the Social Security Administration, so their net asset value to the federal government is zero.

IV. The Real Problem Created by the Current System A. A crisis is facing the pay-as-you-go system as revenues from the payroll tax is falling short of the benefits promised to retirees.

B. Four possible ways of dealing with the future shortfall of revenues relative to promised benefits: 1. Reduce benefits 2. Raise taxes and/or cut other government expenditures in order to inject additional funds into the system 3. Borrow from the general public 4. Reform the system in a manner that will increase the rate of return earned by (or for) workers and future retirees C. The presence of SSTF bonds does not change these alternatives or make it easier to deal with future Social Security deficits D. The problem is not depletion of the trust funds, but the burden of soaring Social Security deficits on the economy.

V. Does Social Security Help the Poor?

A. While the Social Security benefit formula favors those with lower lifetime earnings, low-wage workers have a lower life expectancy, begin work at a younger age, and gain less from the spousal benefit provisions of the current system.

B. These latter factors largely, if not entirely, offset the egalitarian effects of the benefit formula.

C. Social Security impacts low wage workers disproportionately.

1. Low-wage workers are far more likely to pay thousands of dollars in Social Security taxes and then die before, or soon after, becoming eligible for retirement benefits.

2. Low-wage workers generally begin full-time work at a younger age. Low-wage workers generally pay more into the system earlier and therefore forgo more interest than do high-wage workers.

3. Labor participation tends to fall as spousal earnings increase. As a result, couples with a high-wage worker are more likely to gain from Social Security‘s spousal benefit provision, which provides the nonworking spouse with benefits equal to 50 percent.

VI. Social Security and the Treatment of Blacks and Working Women A. Adversely affects blacks and other groups with below-average life expectancy 1. Because of their shorter life expectancy, blacks derive a lower rate of return from Social Security than whites and a substantially lower return than Hispanics.

B. Discrimination against working women 1. Social Security discriminates against married women in the workforce.

VII. Is Social Security Suitable for the Twenty-First Century?

A. The demographics of the twenty-first century reduce the attractiveness of pay-as-yougo Social Security.

1. Various plans that would place more emphasis on saving and investment are likely to be considered in the future.

2. Social Security for a typical worker returns only 2 percent compared to the stock market investments that have averaged a real return of approximately 7 percent annually.

B. Unfunded liability: A shortfall of tax revenues at current rates relative to promised benefits for a program. Without an increase in tax rates, the promised benefits cannot be funded fully.

C. Personal retirement account (PRA): An account that is owned personally by an individual in his or her name. The funds in the account could be passed along to heirs.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  Why will the Social Security program confront problems in the near future?  Will the Social Security Trust Fund make it easier to pay the promised benefits to future retirees?  Does Social Security transfer income from the rich to the poor? How does it impact the economic status of blacks, Hispanics, and those with fewer years of life expectancy?  Does the Social Security system need to be modernized?

CONTEXT This special topic examines one of the most widely discussed and debated public policy issues— Social Security. The problem facing Social Security is explained as well as its treatment of various demographic groups. The special topic concludes with a discussion of possible reforms.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

Review Exhibit 1, which shows the workers per Social Security beneficiary. As the worker/beneficiary ratio falls under a pay-as-you-go system, either taxes must be increased or benefits reduced (or both).

2.

It is important to contrast the pay-as-you-go approach of Social Security with the approach of private saving for retirement. Comparison to Ponzi schemes is also instructive.

3.

Remind students that any pay-as-you-go policy that gives early retirees an unsustainably good deal faces the same sort of problem as Social Security.

4.

There is a huge amount of literature on the effects of Social Security. Interested instructors will find this topic really ―grabs‖ students, who are major losers from the system.

5.

To provide students a perspective of the magnitude of the problem with Social Security, go over Exhibit 3. Point out that beginning around 2010, the system‘s current surplus changes to a deficit, which will persist for several decades.

6.

Make sure students understand that the surplus building up in the Social Security trust fund will not lighten the future tax burden. The current surplus of the Social Security system is used to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds. Because the federal government is both the payee and recipient of these bonds, their net asset value to the federal government is zero. They will not reduce the level of future taxes needed to cover the Social Security deficit when the baby boomers begin to retire.

7.

Review the four possible solutions to the Social Security crisis: reduce benefits, raise taxes, borrow from the general public, or reform the system.

8.

Discuss one of the options for reform of the Social Security system (i.e., moving toward privatization through personal retirement accounts). Be sure to discuss the issues surrounding this solution.

9.

An interesting topic for class discussion is who is helped and who is hurt by Social Security.

The three issues the text analyzes are whether: a. Social Security helps the poor b. Social Security adversely affects groups with a lower life expectancy c. Social Security discriminates against married women in the workforce

10. Class discussion of Critical Analysis questions 1, 3, and 5 will help students integrate the major concepts of this chapter.

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 6. No. It would make no difference whether the tax was imposed on employers or employees.

The incidence of a tax is determined by the elasticity of labor supply and labor demand, rather than who physically pays the tax.

Special Topic 3 The Stock Market: Its Function, Performance, and Potential as an Investment Opportunity OUTLINE I. The Difference Between Stocks and Bonds A. Stock: Ownership shares of a corporation.

B. Bond: A promise to repay the principal (amount borrowed) plus interest at a specified time in the future.

II. The Economic Functions of the Stock Market A. The stock market provides investors, including those who are not interested in participating directly in the operation of the firm, with an opportunity to own a fractional share of the firm‘s future profits.

B. New stock issues are often an excellent way for firms to obtain funds for growth and product development.

C. Stock prices provide information about the quality of business decisions.

III. Stock Market Performance: The Historical Record A. The stock market allows nearly anyone to participate in the risks and opportunities of corporate America. Real returns for the past two centuries have averaged 7 percent per year.

B. The Standard and Poor‘s 500 Index (S&P 500) is one measure of the performance of the broad stock market.

IV. The Interest Rate, the Value of Future Income, and Stock Prices A. Underlying the price of a firm‘s stock is the present value of the firm‘s expected future net earnings, or profit.

B. The value of a share depends on 1. the expected size of future net earnings, 2. when these earnings will be achieved, and 3. the interest rate by which the investor discounts the future income.

C. If D represents dividends (and gains from a higher stock price) earned during various future years (indicated by the subscripts) and i represents the discount or interest rate, the present value of the future income stream is: D1 D2 PV   ....  Dn .

2 (1  i) (1  i) (1  i)n D. A higher interest rate reduces the present value of future returns from holding shares of a stock.

V. The Random Walk Theory of the Stock Market A. When considering the future of stock prices, many economists stress the implications of the random walk theory.

1. Investor expectations about an uncertain future determine current prices, and no one can forecast future stock prices with precision or certainty.

VI. How the Ordinary Investor Can Beat the Experts A. Buying and selling individual stocks without specialized knowledge for quick profit is very risky.

1. Holding a diverse portfolio of unrelated stocks and holding them for long periods of time greatly reduces the risk of investing in the stock market.

B. An equity mutual fund that is tied to a broad stock market index like the S&P 500 provides an attractive method for long-term investors to obtain relatively high yields with minimal risk.

VII. The Advantages of Indexed Mutual Funds A. Indexed mutual funds have substantially lower operating costs than managed funds because they engage in less trading and have no need for either a market expert or research staff.

B. Managed equity mutual fund: An equity mutual fund that has a portfolio manager who decides what stocks will be held in the fund and when they will be bought or sold.

C. Should you invest in a fund because of its past performance?

1. No, past performance is a not a reliable indicator of future performance.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  What is the economic function of the stock market?  What determines the price of a stock? Can experts forecast the future direction of stock prices?  Historically, how does the return on stock investments compare with other alternatives? Is it risky to invest in a diverse bundle of stocks over a lengthy time period?

CONTEXT

This special topic considers several issues regarding the stock market. First, it discusses the economic functions of the stock market and historical performance. Second, the relationship between stock prices and the interest rate is analyzed. Third, a discussion of the random walk theory of stock prices is provided. Lastly, the special topic discusses how the individual investor can profit from stock market investments.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

Review Exhibit 4. It indicates that the risk of a poor return from a holding a diverse portfolio of stocks declines as the length of the holding period increases. Small investors can obtain a diverse portfolio by purchasing stock in an equity mutual fund, a corporation that buys and holds shares of stock in many firms. Be sure to stress the advantages of indexed mutual funds (e.g. lower operating costs).

2.

Be sure to explain the determinants of stock prices. Underlying the price of a firm‘s stock is the present value of the firm‘s expected future net earnings, or profit. The value of a share depends on (1) the expected size of future net earnings, (2) when these earnings will be achieved, and (3) the interest rate by which the investor discounts the future income. Since, a higher interest rate reduces the present value of future returns from holding shares, the stock price will fall.

3.

Discuss the relationship between the stock market and corporations. The decisions of a firm‘s executives influence the firm‘s stock price. When investors (and their advisors and fund managers) believe that the decisions of corporate managers will increase the firm‘s future income, they will buy more of the stock, driving its price up. When investors believe that bad decisions are being made, the reverse happens and the stock‘s price fall. Also note that corporate board members are usually stockholders, and top managers are often given stock options. The value of the stock options will rise sharply as the firm‘s stock price increases.

This helps bring the interest of corporate decision makers into harmony with other stockholders

4.

It is important to discuss the random walk theory of stock prices. That is, future stock prices are unpredictable based on current information. Stock prices change only in response to surprises. As result, stock recommendations appearing in financial magazines such as Money and Smart Money are not worth pursuing. This is the point addressed in Critical Analysis question 4. Other good discussion starters are Critical Analysis questions 2, 3, and 6.

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 2.

It will lower the value of stocks. Higher nominal interest rates will reduce the discounted value of future income derived from stock ownership. Though higher inflation will raise the nominal value of future income, it will have two other adverse effects on stock prices. First, a higher rate of inflation will raise the tax burden accompanying capital gains. Second, high and variable rates of inflation increase the uncertainty of investment and other long-term contracts. This will hurt both the economy and the stock markets.

Special Topic 4 Keynes and Hayek: Contrasting Views on

Sound Economics and the Role of Government OUTLINE I. Keynes And Hayek: Two Great Economists A. Keynes is widely regarded as the most influential economist of the twentieth century.

B. Keynes‘s General Theory provided a reasonable explanation of what went wrong during the Great Depression and what could be done to prevent such an event from occurring in the future.

C. Hayek was the recipient of the 1974 Nobel Prize in Economics.

D. In his 1944 book The Road to Serfdom, Hayek argued that the growth of government was endangering freedom and leading to tyranny in the Western democracies, just as it had done in both Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union.

II. Keynes Hayek, and Great Debates in Economics A. Keynes and Hayek 1. John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich Hayek are giants in the economics profession.

Their theories and ideas represent contrasting alternative views on several of the central issues of economics.

B. What is the cause and cure for the business cycle?

1. Keynes believed that market economies were inherently unstable and government intervention in the form of fiscal and monetary stimulus could be used effectively to promote economic stability.

2. Hayek believed that economic instability was primarily the result of malinvestment generated by monetary and credit expansion and that government stimulus would slow market adjustments and the recovery process.

C. Should an economy be directed by government central planning or decentralizes individual planning and the invisible hand of market prices?

1. Keynes believed that government central planning could improve on market outcomes.

2. Hayek believed that policy-makers simply do not have the information or incentives to plan the economy effectively and that their efforts to do so would be far less efficient than allocation through markets.

D. Can democratic decision-making be counted on to allocate resources efficiently?

1. Keynesians believe that the job of the economist is to develop policies that will reduce economic instability and correct market failures. Keynesian analysis largely ignores how economic incentives influence the operation of the political process.

2. Hayekians recognize that the political incentive structure often caters to wellorganized interest groups and results in the adoption of shortsighted policies. Thus, they stress the importance of legal and political institutions that will provide both market participants and political decision-makers with incentives to engage in productive rather than counterproductive actions.

FOCUS QUESTIONS

As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  Why are the views of John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich Hayek often compared and contrasted?  Are market economies inherently unstable, or are counterproductive government policies the primary source of economic instability?  If we want to allocate resources efficiently and achieve higher income levels, should we rely primarily on markets or political allocation?

CONTEXT In this feature, we focus on the views of John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich Hayek with regards to the business cycle, in the context of two videos.

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 1.

Keynes argues that increased saving will decrease aggregate demand and thus lead to economic downturns. Furthermore, he argued that government spending was necessary to increase aggregate demand in recessions. Hayek argues that booms and busts were caused by activist policies that push interest rates to too low levels and businesses thus undertake poor investments. He argued that savings should be used to finance investments.

Special Topic 5 The 2020 COVID-19 Recession: Cause, Response, and Implications for the Future OUTLINE I. The COVID-19 Pandemic and its Impact on the Economy A. The COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses caused an abrupt closure of many businesses and a large shift to online work and education.

1. By April, nearly half of the labor force had shifted to online work. But millions of businesses were forced to close their doors.

2. The number employed fell from 158.8 million in February to 133.4 million in April, and so the unemployment rate soared to levels not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

3. Worldwide, there were 10 million cases and 500 thousand deaths during the first six months of 2020.

B. The 2020 recession was different 1. It was caused by government mandates requiring people to stay in their homes and businesses to close their operations to combat the COVID-19 virus.

II. Policy Response to the Pandemic and Recession A. Governments throughout the world enacted unprecedented policies in response to the pandemic and its economic effects.

B. Limits on group interactions and travel, stay-at-home orders, restrictions on nonessential medical procedures, and mandated business closures were imposed to reduce the externalities associated with human interactions created by the highly contagious nature of the virus.

C. At the state and local level, many governments declared states of emergency that automatically imposed restrictions on price increases that caused widespread shortages and resulted in consumer hoarding of various products.

D. Political decision-makers responded with policies designed to aid or compensate affected workers and business owners. By May of 2020, emergency legislation summing to $3 trillion in additional federal spending had been passed, providing: 1. A paycheck protection provision 2. Grants and loans of approximately $650 billion towards small businesses 3. Grants and loans were provided to large businesses 4. Government checks for $1,200 per adult and $500 per child E. Sweden: An alternative policy strategy 1. Sweden, rather than closing schools and requiring people to be locked down in their homes, Sweden relied mostly on the voluntary cooperation of its citizens.

2. The Swedish strategy was designed to reduce the cases to a level that would not overwhelm hospitals and health care facilities.

3. The Swedish approach also sought to develop herd immunity within the general populace.

4. It resulted in a smaller initial decline in real GDP than both Sweden‘s Scandinavian neighbors and other European economies.

III. How will the Great Suppression Change America?

A. Life in America was not going to be the same after the crisis 1. Changes in the structure of the economy.

2. Substantial increase in government debt.

3. Increased risk of monetary policy error as the result of Fed actions to combat the crisis.

4. Reassessment of several government regulations.

5. Increased restrictions on international trade and travel.

6. A ratchet effect resulting in permanently higher levels of future government expenditures and intervention.

B. Decentralized innovation and entrepreneurship: the path forward 1. Entrepreneurship and innovation will play a significant role in the economic recovery and reallocations of productive effort that will unfold in the years ahead.

2. In the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis, entrepreneurs will address challenges in different ways.

3. The profit and loss system, based on consumer preferences and demands relative to production costs, will determine which solutions survive and which do not.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:

  

What caused the 2020 recession, and why was this recession different from the ones that preceded it?

What was the policy response to the pandemic? Was it effective?

How will the United States be different after the pandemic is over?

CONTEXT This special topic is designed to give students an overview of the Great Suppression of 2020 (The COVID Crisis). The first section describes the economic impacts of the pandemic. The section goes into describing how the 2020 depression was different from previous depressions. The second section goes into the policy response of governments to the pandemic and compares the Swedish response to that adopted by other countries around the world. The last section depicts the changes to the American economy and way of life. The section concludes with a brief look ahead.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

What is a pandemic? How is COVID-19 different from previous pandemics such as MERS and SARS?

2.

Critical Analysis questions 2 and 3 are good discussion starters.

3.

Compare Sweden‘s response to other western economies. Critical Analysis question 7 can be used to frame this discussion.

4.

Looking ahead, what changes do we see? What will be permanent? What will be the ―new‖ normal?

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 5.

The United States imposed trade restrictions China as a response to COVID-19. Further, the United States and other countries also imposed restraints on the export of health care equipment such as ventilators and respirators during the virus crisis. There is political support for various types of trade restrictions. The products covered by these export curbs vary, but have broadly fallen into two categories: medical goods (medical supplies, pharmaceuticals, and equipment) and foodstuffs. With respect to medical supplies, some analysts have argued that Chinese government actions in February, including prioritizing domestic use and making large state-backed purchases on the international market, fueled global PPE scarcity and prompted the global restrictions. (Ref: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/ IF11551)

Special Topic 6 The Great Recession of 2008–2009: Causes and Response OUTLINE

I. The Crisis of 2008 A. The headlines of 2008 were about falling housing prices, rising default and foreclosure rates, failure of large investment banks, and huge bailouts arranged by both the Fed and the Treasury.

B. The crisis reduced the wealth of most Americans and generated widespread concern about the future of the economy.

C. This crisis and the response to it may be the most important macroeconomic event of our lives.

II. Key Events Leading Up to the Crisis A. Boom and bust in housing prices B. Rising default and foreclosure rates C. Sharp downturn in the stock market D. Soaring prices of crude oil and other energy sources III. What Caused the Great Recession?

A. Factor 1: Change in mortgage lending standards 1. The role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a. These two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) were set up as ―for profit‖ firms by the federal government. b. Because of their GSE status and the perceived government backing of their bonds, they could borrow funds at 50 to 75 basis points cheaper than other lenders. c. The GSE structure meant they were asked to serve two masters: (1) their stockholders and (2) Congress and federal regulators. d. The GSEs were highly political: Their top management provided key congressional leaders with large contributions and often hired away congressional staffers into high paying jobs lobbying former bosses. e. Fannie and Freddie did not originate mortgages; instead, they operated in the secondary market where they purchased the mortgages originated by banks and other lenders. f. They dominated the secondary mortgage market.

2. Regulations imposed by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) in the mid-1990s forced Fannie and Freddie to extend more loans to lowand moderate-income households.

3. The HUD mandates required Fannie and Freddie to extend 40 percent of their new loans to borrowers with incomes below the median in 1996. This mandated share was increased to 50 percent in 2000 and 56percent in 2008.

4. In 1999, HUD guidelines required Fannie and Freddie to accept smaller down payments and extend larger loans relative to income.

5. In order to meet HUD mandates, the GSEs accepted more subprime loans.

6. Mortgage originators were willing to make subprime and other high-risk loans because they could be passed on to the GSEs. 7. Beginning in 1995, modified regulations imposed by the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) also lowered mortgage lending standards.

8. The CRA pushed banks to extend more loans to high risk borrowers.

9. Mortgage loans to subprime borrowers soared as a result of these regulations.

10. The intent was to promote affordable housing, but the regulations eroded lending standards, and fueled the housing price boom and bust, as well as the defaults and foreclosures that followed.

B. Factor 2: prolonged low-interest rate policy of the Fed during 2002–2004 1. During 2002–2004 the Fed supplied additional reserves to the banking system and kept short-term interest rates low.

2. This policy supplied additional bank credit, increased the attractiveness of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs), and fueled the housing price boom.

3. But, as inflation increased during 2005–2006, the Fed increased interest rates and this helped turn the housing boom to a bust.

C. Factor 3: Increased debt to capital ratio of investment banks 1. A regulation adopted by the SEC in April 2004, permitted investment banks to leverage their capital by a larger amount and thereby extend more loans.

2. Banks were required to maintain 8 percent capital against commercial loans, but only 4 percent against residential housing loans, and only 1.6 percent against lowrisk (AAA rated) securities.

3. Thus, if mortgage-backed securities had a AAA rating, they could be leveraged up to 60 to 1 against bank capital.

4. Major investment banks and many commercial banks bundled mortgages together and received AAA ratings for the securities backing the mortgages.

5. These highly leveraged securities generated large profits for investment and commercial banks and the GSEs (Fannie and Freddie) during the housing boom.

6. Based on prior history of default rates, lending institutions thought the mortgagebacked securities were quite safe.

7. But they failed to recognize that the erosion of the lending standards would lead to higher default and foreclosure rates.

8. As housing prices leveled off in the latter half of 2006, default rates increased and the value of the highly leveraged mortgage-backed securities plummeted.

9. This led to the collapse of investment banks like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, and serious problems for other financial institutions.

D. Factor 4: High debt to income ratio of households 1. The debt to income ratio of households has risen sharply since the early 1980s.

2. Because mortgage and home equity loans are tax deductible, but other forms of debt are not, household debt is concentrated against housing assets.

3. As a result, housing is hit hard when economic conditions weaken.

IV. The Great Recession, Perverse Incentives, and Potential Reforms A. Regulations that eroded lending standards, the Fed‘s interest rate policy, imprudent leverage lending by banks with the help of security rating firms, and the growth of household debt combined to create the financial crisis of 2008.

B. The mortgage-backed securities were marketed throughout the world, and as default rates rose, the value of the securities plummeted and the crisis spread around the world.

C. The default and foreclosure rates rose well before the recession started in December 2007, indicating that it was the housing crisis that caused the recession, not the other way around.

D. Regulation is a two-edged sword—it can generate adverse as well as positive results.

E. Monetary policy should focus on monetary and price stability, rather than trying to control real output and employment.

1. If it creates a stable monetary price environment, this will help promote strong growth and a high level of employment.

F. Institutional reforms that restore sound lending practices, strengthen the property rights of shareholders, and provide corporate managers with a stronger incentive to pursue long-term success would help promote recovery and future prosperity.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  What caused the Great Recession of 2008–2009?  Why did housing prices rise rapidly during 2002–2005 and then fall in the years immediately following?  Did government policies undermine credit standards and the operation of the mortgage market?  Did monetary policy contribute to the housing boom and bust?

CONTEXT The headlines of 2008 were dominated by falling housing prices, rising default and foreclosure rates, failure of large investment banks, and huge bailouts arranged by both the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury. The Crisis of 2008 substantially reduced the wealth of most Americans and generated widespread concern about the future of the U.S. economy. This crisis and the response to it will probably be the most important macroeconomic event of our lives. Thus, it is vitally important to understand what happened, why things went wrong, and the lessons that need to be learned from the experience.

This special topic examines at the key events leading up to the crisis and the underlying factors that generated the collapse.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

The housing boom and bust during the first seven years of this century are central to understanding the economic events of 2008. Exhibit 1 shows that housing prices increased slowly during the 1990s, but they began rising more rapidly toward the end of the decade.

Between January 2002 and mid-year 2006, housing prices increased by a whopping 87 percent. But the boom turned to a bust during the second half of 2006, and the housing price decline continued throughout 2007–2008. Exhibit 2 shows that the mortgage default and foreclosure rates rate fluctuated within a narrow range for more than two decades prior to 2006. Both soared starting 2006.

2.

Be sure to discuss the four factors that caused the Crisis of 2008: (1) Change in Mortgage Lending Standards; (2) Low-Interest Rate Policy of the Fed During 2002-2004; (3) Increased

Debt to Capital Ratio of Investment Banks; Households.

and (4) High Debt to Income Ratio of

3.

Emphasize the three lessons to be drawn from the Crisis of 2008: (1) Regulation is a twoedged sword—it can generate adverse as well as positive results; (2) Monetary policy should focus on monetary and price stability, rather than trying to control real output and employment; and (3) Institutional reforms that restore sound lending practices, strengthen the property rights of shareholders, and provide corporate managers with a stronger incentive to pursue long-term success would help promote recovery and future prosperity. To a large degree, the 2008 crisis reflects what happens when policies confront people with perverse incentives. Constructive reforms need to focus on getting the incentives right.

4.

Critical Analysis questions 1 and 6 are good discussion starters.

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 1.

Many factors directly and indirectly caused the Great Recession that started in 2008 with the US subprime mortgage crisis. The major causes included: falling housing prices, rising default and foreclosure rates, failure of large investment banks, and huge bailouts arranged by both the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury.

Special Topic 7 Lessons from the Great Depression OUTLINE I. The Economic Record of the Great Depression A. Large reductions in output 1. Real GDP plunged during 1929–1933.

2. After a modest recovery during 1934–1936, real GDP fell again in 1938.

B. Soaring unemployment 1. The rate of unemployment rose from 3.2 percent in 1929 to 8.7 percent in 1930 and to 15.9 percent in 1931.

2. From 1932–1933, the unemployment rate soared to nearly one-quarter of the labor force.

3. After declining to 14.3 percent in 1937, the rate of unemployment rose to 19 percent in 1938 and it stood at 17percent in 1939, a decade after the catastrophic decline began.

C. Farm and home foreclosures D. Bank Failures E. Human suffering II. Was the Great Depression Caused by the 1929 Stock Market Crash?

A. The 1929 decline in stock prices reduced wealth, aggregate demand, and real output.

B. Stock prices have fallen by 50 percent or more during other recessions, but the economy still moved toward a recovery within a year or two.

C. While the decline in stock prices may have triggered the initial economic decline, the length and severity of the Great Depression were the result of other factors.

III. Why Was the Great Depression So Lengthy and Severe?

A. A sharp reduction in the supply of money during 1930–1933 and again in 1937–1938 reduced aggregate demand and real output.

1. The supply of money expanded slowly but steadily throughout the 1920s.

2. Even though prices were relatively stable in the 1920s, the Fed increased the discount rate four times between January 1928 and August 1929, pushing it from 3.5 percent to 6 percent.

3. After the October stock market crash, the Fed aggressively sold government bonds, which drained reserves from the banking system and reduced the money supply.

4. Sound monetary policy is about monetary and price stability 5. The Fed failed during the 1930s: The initial monetary contraction during 1929– 1933 plunged the economy into recession and the second monetary contraction during 1937–1938 stifled the prospects for recovery.

6. The monetary instability of the 1930s generated uncertainty and undermined the exchange process.

B. The Smoot–Hawley trade bill of 1930 increased tariffs and led to a huge reduction in the volume of international trade.

1. Legislation passed in June 1930 increased tariffs by more than 50 percent on approximately 3,200 imported products.

2. Like proponents of trade restrictions today, the Smoot-Hawley supporters argued the bill would ―save jobs.‖ 3. Recognizing the restrictions would reduce both trade and output, more than 1,000 economists pleaded with President Hoover to veto the bill; he rejected their advice.

4. Sound monetary policy is about monetary and price stability.

5. The stock market, which had rebounded to levels prior to the October 1929 crash, moved steadily downward as Congress debated and passed the Smoot–Hawley bill.

6. Sixty countries responded with higher tariffs on American exports and the volume of trade fell by more than 50 percent.

7. Smoot–Hawley reduced the gains from specialization and trade, generated less tariff revenue even though the rates were higher, and plunged the economy further into recession.

8. The unemployment rate was 7.8 percent when Smoot–Hawley was passed, but it ballooned to 23.6 percent just two years later.

C. A large tax increase in the midst of a severe recession made a bad situation worse.

1. As the federal budget fell into deficit in 1931, Congress and the Hoover Administration instituted a huge tax increase in order to balance the budget.

2. This tax increase reduced aggregate demand and the incentive to earn and invest, plunging the economy still deeper into recession.

3. Recognizing the restrictions would reduce both trade and output, more than 1,000 economists pleaded with President Hoover to veto the bill; he rejected their advice.

D. Price controls, anticompetitive policies, and constant structural changes during the Roosevelt administration generated uncertainty and undermined the normal recovery process.

1. Many history books credit New Deal policies with the eventual end of the Great Depression.

2. Some New Deal policies were helpful: a. The Federal Deposit Insurance program b. Re-evaluation of gold and the expansion in the money supply during 1934– 1936.

3. But other policies were harmful and increased the length and severity of the Great Depression. a. The Agricultural Adjustment Act (AAA) (1) Under the AAA, adopted in 1933, the Roosevelt Administration tried to push prices up by restricting supply.

(2) Farmers were paid to plow under portions of cotton, corn, wheat, and other crops.

(3) Potato farmers were paid to spray their potatoes with dye so they would be unfit for human consumption.

(4) Cattle, sheep, and pigs were slaughtered.

(5) AAA was declared unconstitutional in 1936. b. The National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) (1) More than 500 industries ranging from automobiles and steel to dog food and dry cleaners were organized into cartels.

(2) Government and business leaders set production quotas, prices, wages, working hours, and distribution methods for each industry.

(3) Once approved by a majority of the firms, the regulations were legally binding on all of the firms in the industry.

(5) Businesses that did not comply were fined and subject to jail sentences.

(6) Prior to this legislation, price fixing of this type would have been a violation of anti-trust legislation.

(7) All of this reduced competition promoted monopoly pricing, and undermined the market process.

IV. Fiscal Policy During the Great Depression A. Prior to the Keynesian Revolution, the view that the federal budget should be balanced was widely accepted.

B. Both the Hoover and Roosevelt administrations raised taxes in an effort to reduce the size of the budget deficit.

C. Many Keynesian economists argued that prior to World War II the budget deficits were too small to provide sufficient demand stimulus.

V. Lessons from the Great Depression A. Monetary contraction will undermine economic activity such as investment and thereby retard output and employment.

B. Trade restrictions will reduce the gains from specialization and exchange.

1. They will not save domestic jobs.

2. Instead they will lead to inefficient use of resources and reductions in output.

C. Raising taxes during a recession will reduce output and make matters worse.

D. Constant policy changes will generate uncertainty, retard private investment, reduce business activity, and thereby prolong the depressed conditions.

E. Good intentions are no substitute for sound policies.

1. Key decision-makers such as Presidents Hoover and Roosevelt, Sen. Smoot, Rep. Hawley, other members of Congress, and the monetary policy-makers of the 1930s had good intentions, but their actions tragically turned what would have been a recession into the Great Depression.

FOCUS QUESTIONS As you read this chapter, look for answers to the following questions:  What caused the Great Depression? Was it the stock market crash of 1929?  



Why was the Great Depression so long and severe? Did the New Deal policies end the Great Depression? Does the Great Depression reflect a failure of markets or a failure of government?

CONTEXT This special topic is designed to give students an overview of the Great Depression. The first section describes the economic conditions in the Great Depression. The second section points out that while the Great Depression may have been started by the Stock Market Crash of 1929, it was not the cause of it being so lengthy and severe. The third section discusses the major reasons for the Great Depression being so long and deep. The fourth section notes that the budget deficits and increases in government spending were too small to exert much impact on total demand and the level of economic activity during the 1930s. The last section highlights the lessons to be learned from the Great Depression.

IMPORTANT POINTS AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS 1.

Review Exhibit 1. It shows the Great Depression was a severe economic plunge that resulted in unemployment rates of nearly 25 percent during 1932–1933 and rates of more than 14 percent for an entire decade. It was the longest, most severe period of depressed economic conditions in American history.

2.

Point out that Contrary to a popular view, the Great Depression was not caused by the 1929 stock market crash. We have had similar reductions in stock prices to those of 1929, both before and after the Great Depression, without experiencing prolonged depressed conditions like those of the 1930s.

3.

Be sure to discuss the four factors that caused the Great Depression to be so severe and lengthy: (1) Monetary instability; (2) Smoot–Hawley trade bill; (3) 1932 tax increase; and (4) structural policy changes.

4.

Use Exhibit 6 to demonstrate that the budget deficits and increases in government spending were too small to exert much impact on total demand and the level of economic activity during the 1930s.

5.

Emphasize the lessons to be drawn from the Great Depression. It highlights the importance of monetary stability; free trade; avoidance of high tax rates; and avoidance of price controls, entry restraints, and persistent policy changes that generate uncertainty and undermine the security of property rights. Perhaps most important, the Great Depression vividly illustrates that good intentions are not a substitute for sound economic policy.

6.

Critical Analysis questions 3 and 4 are good discussion starters.

HINTS FOR ANSWERING CRITICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS 6.

The Great Depression highlights the importance of monetary stability; free trade; avoidance of high tax rates; and avoidance of price controls, entry restraints, and persistent policy changes that generate uncertainty and undermine the security of property rights. Perhaps most important, the Great Depression vividly illustrates that good intentions are not a substitute for sound economic policy. It is clear that not all of these lessons have been learned.