Q1 2026 Quarterly Aftermarket Dashboard Summary Report
The voice of the independent aftermarket in Australia
Welcome to the Q1 2026 Edition of the Aftermarket Dashboard, a quarterly information service for members of the AAAA. This industry publication captures useful statistical and related data, as indicators of the unfolding trends and health of the automotive aftermarket industry, and has been designed to provide regular insight on our industry.
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Data is sourced from VFACTS New Car Sales Data, EVC Vehicle Sales Report, FQ SME Report March 2026, Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index, ABS Statistics; Unemployment Rate (trend adj), Household Spending Index, Consumer Price Index, Produce Price Index, Automotive Insights Report (AIR) AutoGrab Data, Australian Institute of Petroleum, Australian Petroleum Statistics, Roy Morgan & Westpac, FQ Car Parc Forecasting, FQ Consumer Tracker
2 Australians’ travel patterns
Latest developments and trends amid rising fuel prices.
Economic Indicators
economic performance
Business confidence and consumer sentiment were both flat in March 2026, and household spending has softened year-on-year, pointing to cautious consumers.
The RBA has raised rates twice this year, with the major banks expecting at least one more increase in May. Each successive hike tightens the squeeze on mortgage holders and reduces discretionary spending capacity across the economy.
Beyond the domestic rate cycle, the conflict in Iran has introduced a significant external risk. Oil supply disruptions are driving broader inflationary pressure, and the RBA has explicitly flagged this as a factor that could keep rates elevated for longer.
fuel prices
Source: Australian Petroleum Statistics, Australian Institute of Petroleum Weekly Petrol/ Diesel Reports
The Middle East conflict has driven the sharpest fuel price spike in years. Petrol reached 224.5c/L in the week ending 12 April, with Diesel up to 319c/L, 71% above year-ago levels. This has direct flow-on effects for the workshops and parts suppliers that service the commercial fleet.
February volume data, captured before the spike, showed an early split by fuel grade. Regular petrol volumes were running below year-ago levels while premium sales lifted, pointing to resilience among higher-income drivers before the crisis hit. Diesel volumes were also tracking ahead of prior year.
March and April volume data will be the real test, with the grade split worth watching as a signal of where cost pressure is hitting hardest.
vehicle sales
Fuel cost pressure is also reshaping purchase decisions. New vehicle sales are broadly stable year-on-year, but the composition is shifting; fully electric models have nearly doubled YTD, with 34.4K units sold against 17.9K in 2025.
This marks a reversal of last year’s trend, when hybrids and plug-in hybrids dominated electrified sales. With petrol above $2.50 per litre, buyers are moving directly to full electric rather than a transitional powertrain.
Used vehicle sales are up 22% in March and 16% year to date, reflecting cost-conscious buyers entering at a lower price point. While EVs service less frequently and use fewer consumables, buyers moving into used vehicles creates opportunities for the automotive aftermarket.
automotive inflation
quarterly consumer/ producer price index (5-year index)**
*The ABS Business Turnover Index tracks changes in business turnover for large businesses ($20M+ annual turnover) based on monthly BAS lodgments, helping us understand trends around industry economic performance. **The Consumer and Producer price indexes then reflect changes in the costs of parts and materials from suppliers (i.e. input costs).
Source: ABS Statistics; Monthly Business Turnover Index, Consumer Price Index, Produce Price Index
The cost structure for the sector is being squeezed from both ends. Manufacturing input costs are up 4% year-on-year, yet spare parts and accessories retail prices have edged slightly lower over the same period.
Vehicle maintenance and repair costs are up 6% year-on-year, reflecting the pass-through of labour and input costs into service pricing. For consumers already under fuel cost pressure, this compounds the burden of keeping an older vehicle on the road.
Whether the cost is sitting with distributors or being discounted at retail to hold volume, the pressure is structural and won't resolve until input costs ease. Wholesalers are showing turnover resilience for now, but the margin question will sharpen as the year progresses.
Australians’ travel patterns
Latestdevelopments andtrendsamid risingfuelprices.
Impact of COVID-19 on Vehicle Usage
Total Vehicle Kilometres Travelled by Vehicle Type, in Billions
Australia’s road traffic data gives us a direct read on how global shocks translate into actual driving behaviour and the time taken to recover. COVID-19 cut total vehicle kilometres travelled by around 6% in a single year, with passenger vehicles bearing the brunt of the decline, and not returning to pre-COVID levels until 2024-25 Commercial vehicles, including trucks, light commercials and buses, proved far more resilient, reflecting the essential nature of freight and logistics even during lockdowns.
Impact of the Iran Conflict on Vehicle Usage
Victoria's traffic volume and petrol price evolution
Where COVID removed the ability to drive, the current crisis is testing whether cost alone is enough to change behaviour. Conflict in the Middle East drove Victorian petrol prices above $2.50 in late March, cutting traffic volumes. The federal government's excise cut from 1 April delivered around 26 cents of relief, yet traffic data shows only limited recovery.
Free public transport across Victoria from 31 March proved the stronger behavioural lever. While the excise cut lowered the cost of driving, free transit removed the need for it. The data suggests Victorians will remain sensitive to petrol pricing, even though volumes can be expected to normalise once the measures expire.
About AAAA
The Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association, is the national industry association representing manufacturers, distributors, wholesalers, importers and retailers of automotive parts and accessories, tools and equipment, as well as providers of vehicle service, repair and modification services in Australia.
For more information, please contact:
Lesley Yates
Director of Government Relations and Advocacy
Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association (AAAA)
Convenor: Automotive Products Manufacturers & Exporters Council (APMEC)
7-8 Bastow Place
Mulgrave VIC 3170 Australia
+61 (3) 9545 3333 | 0402 005 476 lyates@aaaa.com.au
About Fifth Quadrant
With over 20 years of automotive experience, Fifth Quadrant has developed a detailed understanding of the automotive sector, using this market knowledge, we design and deliver research that helps our clients understand and overcome their business issues, empowering them to move forward with confidence.
For more information, please contact:
Ben Selwyn Guillaume Gomez
Director Lead Account Manager Fifth Quadrant Fifth Quadrant 0411 132 166 0424 064 081
ben@fifthquadrant.com.au ggomez@fifthquadrant.com.au
Level 6, 54 Miller St
North Sydney NSW 2060 Australia
+61 (2) 9927 3333