School closures coming as enrollment dips again

Public Notices

drop in public school enrollment, with the state recording close to 5% fewer students this past fall than the year before.

BY ERICA BREUNLIN COLORADO SUN

Enrollment in Colorado public schools took another dip this school year, setting up reduced funding for districts across the state and raising the threat of further school closures.

e problems — which many districts have seen coming — stem from years of declining birth rates that have driven down the per-pupil funding districts rely on as fewer students enrolled in schools.

e state saw a 0.37% decrease in enrollment last fall compared with 2021 as total enrollment decreased by 3,253 to 883,264 students, according to data released Wednesday by the Colorado Department of Education. e drop adds to waning enrollment since 2020, when the state recorded a decline of nearly 30,000 students — the rst enrollment downturn in more than 30 years. Last year, Colorado counted about 1,200 fewer K-12 students, but the state also saw an uptick in preschool and kindergarten enrollments.

Declines this year, captured in the state’s annual October count, affected more than half of the state’s 178 school districts. Ninety-four districts along with seven Boards of Cooperative Educational Services, which provide resources and support to multiple districts that cannot a ord them on their own, are facing enrollment drops this school year. ey include six of Colorado’s 10 largest districts: Denver Public Schools, Je co Public Schools, Douglas County School District, Cherry Creek School District, Adams 12 Five Star Schools and Boulder Valley School District. Meanwhile, 85 districts and BOCES have seen their enrollment increase, according to CDE’s data, including Aurora Public Schools, St. Vrain Valley School District, Poudre School District and Academy e sharpest enrollment declines hit kindergarten and middle schools. Colorado tallied 4,506 fewer middle schoolers this year than last year, a decrease of more than 2%, according to state data. e number of kindergarteners in the state dropped by 2,373 kids, nearly 4% — evidence pointing to the toll that fewer births are taking on schools, said Brian Eschbacher, a Denver-based independent education consultant who previously served as executive director of planning and enrollment for Denver Public Schools. e school system is the rst institution to feel the ripple e ects of fewer children being born, Eschbacher said.

School District 20.

“We have such a diversity in school districts that there’s not a one-size sort of environment or experience among school districts,” said Jennifer Okes, chief operating o cer of the state education department.

Considering lower birth rates stretching back to 2017, he said, “it is likely that kindergarten enrollment will continue to decline, which will then put additional pressure on the overall K-12 system in future years as fewer students are entering and matriculating through schools.” e state hit its peak with births in 2007, when 70,777 children were born, and Garner predicts the state’s birth rate could rebound but not until 2034 at the earliest.

Colorado’s declining birth rate — which attened in 2022 — is “hands down” shaping enrollment drops, said state demographer Elizabeth Garner.

About 62,400 Colorado kids were born in 2022, slightly up from 61,976 births in 2021. e birth rate, however, has remained at, Garner said, even as the state has continued to see an increase in women of childbearing age.

“I think this decade we will see a slowdown in enrollment in almost every area,” she said. “After this decade, we may start to see an increase.” e rst step districts must take as they grapple with lower student counts: “understanding the new normal for what enrollment might look like in their area,” Eschbacher said.

Eschbacher anticipates that the declines in student enrollment across the state could lead to more school closures — similar to recent decisions in Je co Public Schools to close 16 elementary schools at the end of the school year.

“Districts are going to have to analyze how changing enrollment patterns combined with changing funding structures from the federal and state level may impact the number of schools and programs that they are able to o er in the future,” he said.

Districts also must collaborate with their communities to grasp what fewer students will mean for their schools and the kinds of adjustments they need to make.

“We need to acknowledge that these dynamics are bigger than COVID,” he said, “and we need to start having tough conversations with our communities about it.”

Enrollment also fell among white students and students of color, families opting to home-school their children and students pursuing online learning. e state reported the biggest change among white students, with schools educating 7,673 fewer white students this school year than in 2021. American Indian or Alaska native students experienced the largest percentage e district’s projections anticipated the decline, so it wasn’t a surprise to DPS, said Liz Mendez, executive director of enrollment and campus planning for the district.

Meanwhile, the number of students engaged in homeschooling decreased by more than 1,800 from last year — down to 8,674 kids total, according to state gures. About 30,800 students enrolled in online educational programs this school year, close to 600 students less than the prior year.

‘We knew this was coming’ Denver Public Schools — Colorado’s largest school district — shrunk by just over 1,000 students this school year, dropping to an enrollment of 87,864 students in preschool through 12th grade, state data shows.

“We knew this was coming, and it has been for the last six years,” Mendez said.

Kindergarten enrollment has consistently dwindled in DPS, she added, with the district hitting its peak enrollment in preschool through 12th grade in 2019. Since then, enrollment has continued to decline.

“It is not due to the pandemic,” Mendez said. “ e pandemic accelerated our declines for a year, but we have been seeing elementary school totals decline since 2014.” at was the district’s peak year for elementary school enrollment, which has dropped steadily in the years since, she said. As smaller kindergarten classes moved through the school system, they began to hit middle school in 2020. DPS recorded its largest enrollment for middle school students in 2019, and enrollment began to wane afterward. e changes to DPS enrollment will likely trigger some adjustments to sta ng — both at individual schools and the district’s central ofce, which already eliminated dozens of positions last year, Chalkbeat Colorado reported. e district’s budget and school budgets will also be a ected by the decrease in students, she noted, while schools may have to re-evaluate the number and kinds of extracurriculars and programs they can o er for students.

Mendez anticipates that the enrollment dips will continue in the foreseeable future, with a variety of factors in uencing student counts besides lower birth rates. She pointed to changing demographics, with more young couples and young, single people moving into Denver, pricing families out. Meanwhile, the housing market is also in uencing enrollment gures as more people, including retirees, are remaining in their homes and “aging in place.” Whereas older residents might traditionally consider downsizing, the mortgage rate and availability of homes deters them from moving, so they stay put.

“It is probably mostly at the individual school level where schools