MarketIndicators June19.qxp_Layout 1 21/05/2019 16:47 Page 6
MARKET INDICATORS
AVBUYER.com
In-Service Aircraft Values & Maintenance Condition Asset Insight’s April 30, 2019 market analysis covering 96 fixed-wing models and 1,684 aircraft listed for sale, revealed a 1.7% inventory increase to the tracked fleet. Large Jets experienced the greatest percentage inventory increase (a 4.6% gain), followed by Small Jets (3.5% inventory increase). Meanwhile Medium Jet and Turboprop inventory decreased 0.5% and 1.1%, respectively.
5.15
$1.50
$1.40
$1.45 $1.40
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Maintenance Exposure
J
F
M
A
$1.35
Quality Rating Trendline
Table B LOW RISK AIRCRAFT MODEL ETP RATIO Citation Latitude 2.4% G650 4.2% Citation CJ4 525C 11.4% Phenom 300 12.9% F2000LX 13.3% Pilatus PC-12 14.4% F900EX EASy 14.7% CL-605 14.9% F2000EX EASy 16.4% Citation Encore + 16.9% G450 17.5% Citation CJ3 17.8% G150 18.5% Citation Sovereign 680 19.0% Hawker 900XP 20.1% F900DX 20.3% Piper Meridian 20.9% G550 21.2% Citation CJ2+ 525A 21.4% KingAir 350 - Post-2000 22.3% Citation Encore 23.9% F2000EX 24.1% Challenger 300 24.5% Global XRS 26.3% Phenom 100 26.7% Global 5000 27.0% Citation Mustang 510 27.8% Citation XLS (MSG3) 28.1% Citation CJ2 28.5% Hawker 850XP 32.8% KingAir B-200 - Post-2000 33.3% KingAir 350 - Pre-2001 33.8% Learjet 45XR 35.6% F900EX 36.4% Embraer Legacy 600 37.7% Citation Excel 560XL 38.1%
Inventory Fleet Maintenance Condition
Fleet asset quality improved nearly 1.2% in April while Maintenance Exposure also improved 1.4%. Overall, the tracked inventory posted the following: • Quality Rating was below the 12-month average, but it did manage to skirt into the ‘Excellent’ range, increasing from 5.191 in March to 5.251 for April, on Asset Insight’s scale of -2.5 to 10. • Maintenance Exposure (an aircraft’s accumulated/embedded maintenance expense), although below the 12-month average, improved (decreased) to $1.4m from March’s $1.42m.
Maintenance Exposure to Ask Price (ETP) Ratio
The ETP Ratio is a useful indicator of an aircraft’s marketability. It’s computed by dividing the asset's Maintenance Exposure (the financial liability accrued with respect to future scheduled maintenance events) by its Ask Price. ‘Days on Market’ analysis has shown that when the ETP Ratio is greater than 40%, a listed aircraft’s time for sale on the market increases, usually by more than 30%. During Q1 2019, assets whose ETP Ratio was 40% or more were listed for sale over 62% longer (on average) than aircraft whose Ratio was below 40% (i.e. 237 days versus 384 days on the market). April’s analysis also noted that 55% of all tracked models and nearly 63% of the tracked fleet posted an ETP Ratio above 40% (see Table B). Our tracked fleet’s ETP Ratio posted another improvement in April, decreasing to 63.6% from March’s 66%. Turboprops posted the lowest (best) ETP Ratio at 54.9% (although that reflected a worsening from last month’s 52.9% and a 12-month worst figure; Large Jets improved from 62.2% to 60.2%; Small Jets improved from 62% to 61.5%; and Medium Jets improved from 79.5% to 72.9%.
30 ❘ Vol 23 Issue 6 2019 ❘ AVBUYER MAGAZINE
$ Million
5.251
Quality Rating
Average aircraft value for the tracked fleet increased just under 1% to post a figure just over $60k higher than the record low value. While Medium Jets posted a 12-month high figure and Small Jet values remained above their 12-month average, these increases could not overcome ask price decreases posted by Large Jets and Turboprops.
• • •
5.35
5.25
Aircraft Values
•
Table A
Fleet Maintenance Condition
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HIGH RISK AIRCRAFT MODEL ETP RATIO Citation Bravo GIV-SP (MSG3) F50EX Learjet 60XR GV Citation CJ1+ CL604 Premier 1A F900B Piaggio P180 II G200 KingAir B200 - Pre-2001 Citation V Ultra KingAir 300 Hawker 400XP Hawker Beechjet 400A Learjet 45 Hawker 800XP Premier 1 Learjet 45 w/APU F2000 Global Express Learjet 60 GIV-SP Citation V 560 Learjet 55C F50 Hawker 1000A Piaggio P180 Citation ISP Citation II Hawker Beechjet 400 KingAir C90 Citation VI Learjet 31 GIV G100 CL601-3R Learjet 35A Hawker 800A CL601-3A CL601-1A Learjet 55 F20-5
40.6% 40.7% 41.1% 41.4% 41.4% 41.8% 43.7% 44.9% 48.0% 48.2% 49.4% 49.8% 51.5% 52.6% 53.8% 54.9% 64.0% 68.2% 69.1% 69.4% 70.3% 80.6% 80.6% 81.8% 82.9% 84.3% 90.4% 92.8% 95.0% 99.8% 100.4% 112.7% 117.9% 126.1% 128.2% 136.4% 138.4% 147.3% 150.2% 167.0% 196.6% 207.3% 208.3% 249.1%
Maintenance Exposure to Ask Price Ratio (“ETP Ratio”) as of April 30 2019 Source: JETNET (www.jetnet.com) page 34
Asset Insight, LLC (www.assetinsight.com)
www.AVBUYER.com