THE TEAMS
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THE STATS
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THE ANALYSIS
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THE EXPERTS
EURO 2020 THE ULTIMATE BETTING GUIDE
ONES TO WATCH
TEAM BY TEAM
Foden? De Bruyne? Kante? Unique analysis, insight and Ronaldo? Who’ll be the star of tips for all 24 nations at Euro the show? 2020.
PAST MASTERS Can the French repeat their 2018 World Cup heroics or will a surprise champion emerge?
NOTES FROM THE EDITOR Welcome to Euro 2020: The Ultimate Betting Guide from the WeLoveBetting Team! The wait is finally over and 364 days later than first expected, the highly anticipated 16th edition of the European Championships is upon us. This magazine has been months in the making and we’ve filled a huge 120 pages with forensic analysis on all the major markets, the 24 participating nations, and every available angle of attack
to give you the ammunition required to make this summer a success. The latest renewal is the first panEuropean tournament, which creates an intriguing dynamic with multiple host nations along the way, and we’ve attempted to decipher the potential advantages and pitfalls for each competitor. We also take a deep
OUTRIGHT WINNER
dive into the Home Nations prospects with Scotland ending a 23-year wait for a return to the top table. In a competition steeped in outright upsets, North Macedonia and Finland will be looking to make a splash on their major tournament debuts, whilst defending champions Portugal are aiming to become only the second nation to successfully retain the trophy.
July, there’s bound to be plenty of thrills and spills throughout the forthcoming four weeks, so enjoy the fantastic festival of football, best of luck with your bests, and we hope our comprehensive companion guide is full of informative and insightful content to keep you ahead of the game.
Mark O’Haire @markohaire
Whoever is crowned on 11th
HOME NATIONS
LONG SHOTS
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110
You have to go back to 1958 for the last time England, Scotland and Wales all qualified for a major tournament. Dan McCulloch examines the home nations’ prospects.
Long-shot specialist James Cantrill picks out a collection of big prices to cheer on through the summer.
SHOUTING THE ODDS
80 Euro 2020 appears fascinatingly poised; Mark O’Haire examines the battle for the Henri Delaunay Trophy, making the case for three candidates in the Outright Winner.
SPECIALS
REFEREES
94
106
James Cantrill has trawled the Specials markets to find five fancies he feels could land you profit during the tournament.
Bookings boff Gavin Murphy is on-hand to mark your card with every referee analysed.
114 How do bookmakers price up international football? Odds compiler Mark Stinchcombe shares his insight and picks out a pair of pre-tournament punts.
2 | WELOVEBETTING ULTIMATE EURO 2020 BETTING GUIDE
CONTENTS
TOP SCORER
We’ve jam-packed 120 pages of unmissable Euro 2020 betting content to give you the best opportunity of success this summer. From the Outright Winner to Top Goalscorer, in-depth team guides on all 24 nations to the 18 referees overseeing matters, we’ve left no stone unturned in our quest to provide you with the most comprehensive companion. 04
Host Cities
05
Tournament Schedule
06
Home Comforts
08
GROUP A Overview
10
Italy
12
Switzerland
14
Turkey
16
Wales
18
Group A Stats
20
GROUP B Overview
22
Belgium
24
Denmark
26
Finland
28
Russia
30
Group B Stats
32
GROUP C Overview
34
Austria
36
Netherlands
38
North Macedonia
40
Ukraine
42
Group C Stats
44
GROUP D Overview
46
Croatia
48
Czech Republic
50
England
52
Scotland
54
Group D Stats
56
GROUP E Overview
58
Poland
60
Slovakia
62
Spain
64
Sweden
66
Group E Stats
68
GROUP F Overview
70
France
72
Germany
74
Hungary
76
Portugal
78
Group F Stats
80
Outright Winner
84
The Price Is Right
86
Ask The Experts: WLB
90
Ask The Experts: The Pros
94
Specials
96
Home Nation Specials
100
Top Goalscorers
104
Players to watch
106
Referees
110
Longshots
114
Understanding The Odds
116
Tartan Memories
118
Stats & Trends
102 Tournament Top Goalscorer betting is always popular. Tom Love dips deep into trends, takes a look at this summer’s contenders and give us his five to follow.
GROUP a
08 Host nation Italy are joined by Switzerland, Turkey and Wales in an ultra-competitive Group. With no obvious outsider in the pool, the race for a toptwo finish appears tighter than most.
GROUP D
GROUP B
GROUP C
20 Belgium are the clear market favourites to finish top of the Group B tree but Denmark and Russia will hope home comforts give the hosts a helping hand. Finland – making their major tournament bow - complete the quartet.
GROUP E
World Cup finalists Croatia and Czech Republic make-up the pool.
Arguably the most open group of all, Group C features hosts Netherlands, alongside an improving Ukraine, newbies North Macedonia and Austria. After seven years in the international wilderness, will the Dutch dominate?
GROUP F
44 England’s latest attempt at major tournament glory sees the Three Lions pitted in Group D alongside auld enemy Scotland. All eyes will be on duos Wembley dust-up on 18th June.
32
68
56 Spain will look to entertain Group E rivals in sweaty Seville with Poland, Sweden and Slovakia facing trips to St Petersburg and back. The race to reach the knockout stages is delicately poised.
World Cup winners France and defending champions Portugal join host nations Germany and Hungary in the undoubted Group of Death. There are mouthwatering match-ups everywhere you look in Group F.
WELOVEBETTING ULTIMATE EURO 2020 BETTING GUIDE | 3
THE HOST CITIES ST PETERSBURG GLASGOW COPENHAGEN LONDON
AMSTERDAM
MUNICH BUDAPEST BUCHAREST
BAKU
ROME SEVILLE
THE VENUES
The first pan-European tournament, Euro 2020 will feature 11 different host cities from St Petersburg to Seville, Baku and Budapest. Wembley will be tournament HQ, hosting seven games in total,t including the semi-finals and showpiece final.
WEMBLEY STADIUM London, England Capacity: 90,000
STADIO OLIMPICO Rome, Italy Capacity: 70,634
ALLIANZ ARENA Munich, Germany Capacity: 70,000
OLYMPIC STADIUM Baku, Azerbaijan Capacity: 68,700
KRESTOVSKY STADIUM St Petersburg, Russia Capacity: 68,134
Puskás Aréna Budapest, Hungary Capacity: 67,215
LA CARTUJA Sevilla, Spain Capacity: 60,000
ARENA NATIONALA Bucharest, Romania Capacity: 55,600
JOHAN CRUYFF ARENA Amsterdam, Netherlands Capacity: 54,990
HAMPDEN PARK Glasgow, Scotland Capacity: 53,000
PARKEN STADIUM Copenhagen, Denmark Capacity: 38,065
4 | WELOVEBETTING ULTIMATE EURO 2020 BETTING GUIDE
the DRAW GROUP a
GROUP B
Jun 11 - Stadio Olimpico, Rome - 20:00
Jun 12 - Parken Stadium, Copenhagen - 17:00
TURKEY v ITALY
DENMARK v FINLAND
Jun 12 - Olympic Stadium, Baku - 14:00
Jun 12 - Krestovsky Stadium, St Petersburg - 20:00
WALES v SWITZERLAND
BELGIUM v RUSSIA
Jun 16 - Olympic Stadium, Baku - 20:00
Jun 16 - Krestovsky Stadium, St Petersburg - 14:00
TURKEY v WALES
FINLAND v RUSSIA
Jun 16 - Stadio Olimpico, Rome - 20:00
Jun 17 - Parken Stadium, Copenhagen - 17:00
ITALY v SWITZERLAND
DENMARK v BELGIUM
Jun 20 - Olympic Stadium, Baku - 17:00
Jun 21 - Parken Stadium, Copenhagen - 20:00
SWITZERLAND v TURKEY
RUSSIA v DENMARK
Jun 20 - Stadio Olimpico, Rome - 17:00
Jun 21 - Krestovsky Stadium, St Petersburg - 20:00
ITALY v WALES
FINLAND v BELGIUM
GROUP C
GROUP D
Jun 13 - Arena Nationala, Bucharest - 17:00
Jun 13 - Wembley Stadium, London - 14:00
AUSTRIA v NORTH MACEDONIA
ENGLAND v CROATIA
Jun 13 - Johan Cruyff Arena, Amsterdam - 20:00
Jun 14 - Hampden Park, Glasgow - 14:00
NETHERLANDS v UKRAINE
SCOTLAND v CZECH REPUBLIC
Jun 17 - Arena Nationala, Bucharest - 14:00
Jun 18 - Hampden Park, Glasgow - 17:00
UKRAINE v NORTH MACEDONIA
CROATIA v CZECH REPUBLIC
Jun 17 - Johan Cruyff Arena, Amsterdam - 20:00
Jun 18 - Wembley Stadium, London - 20:00
NETHERLANDS v AUSTRIA
ENGLAND v SCOTLAND
Jun 21 - Johan Cruyff Arena, Amsterdam - 17:00
Jun 22 - Hampden Park, Glasgow - 20:00
NORTH MACEDONIA v NETHERLANDS
CROATIA v SCOTLAND
Jun 21 - Arena Nationala, Bucharest - 17:00
Jun 22 - Wembley Stadium, London - 20:00
UKRAINE v AUSTRIA
CZECH REPUBLIC v ENGLAND
GROUP E
GROUP F
Jun 14 - Krestovsky Stadium, St Petersburg - 17:00
Jun 15 - Puskás Aréna, Budapest - 17:00
POLAND v SLOVAKIA
HUNGARY v PORTUGAL
Jun 14 - La Cartuja, Seville - 20:00
Jun 15 - Allianz Arena, Munich - 20:00
SPAIN v SWEDEN
FRANCE v GERMANY
Jun 18 - Krestovsky Stadium, St Petersburg - 14:00
Jun 19 - Puskás Aréna, Budapest - 14:00
SWEDEN v SLOVAKIA
HUNGARY v FRANCE
Jun 19 - La Cartuja, Seville - 20:00
Jun 19 - Allianz Arena, Munich - 17:00
SPAIN v POLAND
PORTUGAL v GERMANY
Jun 23 - La Cartuja, Seville - 17:00
Jun 23 - Puskás Aréna, Budapest - 20:00
SLOVAKIA v SPAIN
PORTUGAL v FRANCE
Jun 23 - Krestovsky Stadium, St Petersburg - 17:00
Jun 23 - Allianz Arena, Munich - 20:00
SWEDEN v POLAND
GERMANY v HUNGARY
ROUnD of 16 R16 Match 1: Jun 26 - Johan Cruyff Arena, Amsterdam - 17:00
RUNNER-UP GROUP A
v
R16 Match 2: Jun 26 - Wembley Stadium, London - 20:00
RUNNER-UP GROUP B
WINNER GROUP A
R16 Match 3: Jun 27 - Puskás Aréna, Budapest - 17:00
WINNER GROUP C
v
3rd GROUP D/E/F
WINNER GROUP B
R16 Match 5: - Jun 28 - Parken Stadium, Copenhagen - 17:00
RUNNER-UP GROUP D
v
v
RUNNER-UP GROUP C
v
3rd GROUP A/D/E/F
R16 Match 6: Jun 28 - Arena Nationala, Bucharest - 20:00
RUNNER-UP GROUP E
WINNER GROUP F
R16 Match 7: Jun 29 - Wembley Stadium, London - 17:00
WINNER GROUP D
v
R16 Match 4: Jun 27 - La Cartuja, Seville - 20:00
v
3rd GROUP A/B/C
R16 Match 8: Jun 29 - Hampden Park, Glasgow - 20:00
RUNNER-UP GROUP F
WINNER GROUP E
v
3rd GROUP A/B/C/D
QUARtER FInals QF Match 1: Jul 2 - Krestovsky Stadium, Saint Petersburg - 17:00
R16 MATCH 6 WINNER
v
QF Match 2: Jul 2 - Allianz Arena, Munich - 20:00
R16 MATCH 5 WINNER
R16 MATCH 4 WINNER
QF Match 3: Jul 3 - Olympic Stadium, Baku - 17:00
R16 MATCH 3 WINNER
v
v
R16 MATCH 2 WINNER
QF Match 4: Jul 3 - Stadio Olimpico, Rome - 20:00
R16 MATCH 1 WINNER
R16 MATCH 8 WINNER
v
R16 MATCH 7 WINNER
SEMI FInals Jul 7 - Wembley Stadium, London - 20:00
Jul 6 - Wembley Stadium, London - 20:00
QF MATCH 2 WINNER
v
QF MATCH 4 WINNERS
QF MATCH 1 WINNER
v
QF MATCH 3 WINNERS
EURO 2020 FINAL Jul 11 - Wembley Stadium, London - 20:00
SEMI FINAL 1 WINNER
v
SEMI FINAL 2 WINNER WELOVEBETTING ULTIMATE EURO 2020 BETTING GUIDE | 5
HOME COMFORTS Jack Wright
@JackWright_BSB
Euro 2020 is the first-ever pan-European tournament, hosted by several nations to celebrate the competition’s 60th birthday. But with multiple hosts, time zones and cultures to cross, has any nation been given a helping hand in terms of rest and travel? And which sides faces the most arduous agenda?
This year, more so than any other, when selecting who you think will conquer Euro 2020, you should factor in much more than simply who has the best XI. The draw, and the route to the final could play a key role on deciding which captain will lift the Henri Delaunay Trophy. Nine host nations are set to feature in the European Championship’s first pan-continental event - Italy, Denmark, Russia, Netherlands, England, Scotland, Spain, Hungary and Germany will all be hosting group-stage games, whilst non-competing countries Azerbaijan and Romania are also entertaining Euro 2020 encounters. Moving forward, last-16 ties have been scheduled for the Netherlands, Romania, Hungary, Denmark, Scotland, Spain, and England, whilst Azerbaijan, Germany, Italy and Russia have been given the nod to accommodate quarter-final
contests. Wembley will then take over proceedings from the semi-final stage, as well as the showpiece final. In terms of rest and recuperation, there are 15 days between teams competing in the opening last-16 matches and a potential place in the final, whilst those competing in the final round of Last 16 fixtures will have a threeday turnaround deficit should they progress to the competition’s curtain-closer. So, with this in mind I am going to take an unbiased view at each of the groups, completely disregarding team strength, and instead look at the unquantifiable such as schedule, paths to the final, rest days, travel from gameto- game, and any other factor that could impact upon a team’s potential to progress in order to find us an edge outside of the ordinary.
GROUP A
GROUP B
Rome (Italy) and Baku (Azerbaijan) are the dual host cities for Group A. The Italians therefore have a massive advantage in this pool, playing all three games at their Stadio Olimpico base, including opening the tournament against Turkey on 11th June.
Copenhagen (Denmark) and St Petersburg (Russia) take hosting duties in Group B with the Danes enjoying home advantage in all three group games. Kasper Hjulmand’s men have only a slight inconvenience in terms of schedule – the Red-Whites must make-do with one day’s less rest when facing Russia in the final match-up in the pool.
However, that advantage is raised further by the fact that their next two fixtures come up against Switzerland and Wales, nations that will have had to fly to Baku and back for their own group games. After the opener, Roberto Mancini’s men have a five-day break before taking on the Swiss, who not only have the five-hour flight to contend with, but also have one day less to prepare having faced Wales 24 hours later. The Azzurri conclude against Wales, who after two games in Baku, make the journey to Rome, although both sides have a three-day window in between. The biggest losers in the group are undoubtedly Switzerland, as Die Nati must make the five-hour flight for each of their outings. The Swiss start in Baku with Wales, travel back to Rome to face Italy, before returning to Azerbaijan to close their group campaign with Turkey.
One of the pre-tournament favourites, Belgium, have the toughest hurdles to overcome in Group B. Roberto Martinez’s troops take on Russia in St Petersburg before a fourhour flight to Copenhagen to face Denmark, and concluding with Finland back in St Petersburg. The Finns, meanwhile, will boast an extra day’s rest and will be based in Russia ahead of facing Belgium. Talking of Russia, the Sbornya meet both Belgium and neighbours Finland on home soil ahead of the crunch clash with Denmark in Copenhagen.
GROUP C Amsterdam (Netherlands) and Bucharest (Romania) are the venues for Group C. The Dutch therefore enjoy home advantage in all three group games, whilst their three pool rivals will face-off against each on neutral territory when not meeting the Oranje. The flight between the Netherlands and Romania is just short of three hours with both North Macedonia and Ukraine having to make that trip once. However, it is Austria that have two flights to make with their opening and closing contests in Bucharest, sandwiching the game against the Netherlands in Amsterdam in between. With all the games in this group being played on the same day there is no rest day advantage, although of course those teams having to fly between games will be at a disadvantage to those with successive games in the same country.
6 | WELOVEBETTING ULTIMATE EURO 2020 BETTING GUIDE
GROUP D
GROUP F
Group D’s settings of London (England) and Glasgow (Scotland) account for the shortest distance between split hosts, with just a 90-minute flight separating the British bases.
Group F’s action will take place in Budapest (Hungary) and Munich (Germany).
England will enjoy home advantage for all three games and also benefit from an extra rest day before taking on Scotland at Wembley in the middle match. Scotland, whilst playing their opener with Czech Republic and closing clash with Croatia at Hampden Park, will be travelling before and after the match-up with the auld enemy.
All three of Germany’s group games will be played in Munich, including their final round showdown with Hungary, whilst Budapest hosts the remaining three fixtures.
It means Croatia and Czech Republic must navigate away games with two host nations. Croatia travel from London to Glasgow to take on the Czechs but will have the perk of an extra day of recovery and so shade advantage between the two given the short distances involved. The interesting element here is, the winner of Group D takes on the runner-up of Group F in the last-16. Group F is the fabled ‘Group of Death’ and houses well- fancied trio France, Germany and Portugal. Even so, that fixture is scheduled for Wembley, potentially giving England home advantage again should they safely navigate their way to top pool honours.
GROUP E Seville (Spain) and St Petersburg (Russia) share duties in Group E, a five-hour flight with possibly quite contrasting climates and weather conditions. Temperatures in Seville for a 18:00 kick-off could well touch 30ºC whereas summer in St Petersburg can vary between 11ºC and 30ºC. Spain certainly hold the aces in Group E with all three of La Roja’s games taking place in Andalusia. Accustomed to the warm weather and with no group-stage travel required, Luis Enrique’s outfit have a reasonable advantage on their side. Poland fans will be disappointed with the unenviable schedule facing Robert Lewandowski and co. The White-Reds start their campaign in Russia, before facing Spain in Seville, and then heading back to St Petersburg to meet Sweden, with the Scandinavians enjoying the benefit of an extra break between game two and three. Outsiders Slovakia must acclimatise for the furnace of Seville and a 18:00 start against Spain in the final round of action, although the Falcons will relish the cooler temperatures of Russia when meeting Sweden and Poland in earlier action.
Travel time of just over one hour shouldn’t inconvenience Portugal too much, although the defending champions won’t be able to settle with their opening and closing games in Budapest, and having to commute to Munich in between. The only completely neutral fixture could be a crucial last game matchup between France and Portugal in Budapest – both sides boast the same three-day gap between games but Fernando Santos’ side must overcome the extra travel inconvenience.
THE VERDICT England are the nation that can guarantee the greatest advantage throughout the tournament, should they win Group D. However, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain will all benefit from all three of their group games taking place on home soil. Hungary, Russia, and Scotland also boast two of their pool matches in front of home supporters.
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9
Nine (45%) of Wales’ 21 competitive games since September 2018 have featured a maximum of one goal.
GROUP A 11
Turkey v Italy
JUn
Stadio Olimpico, Rome | 20:00
16
Turkey v Wales
JUn
Olympic Stadium, Baku | 15:00
20
Switzerland v Turkey
JUn
Olympic Stadium, Baku | 17:00
12
Wales v Switzerland
JUn
Olympic Stadium, Baku | 14:00
16
Italy v Switzerland
JUn
Stadio Olimpico, Rome | 20:00
20
Italy v Wales
JUn
Stadio Olimpico, Rome | 17:00
8 | WELOVEBETTING ULTIMATE EURO 2020 BETTING GUIDE
GROUP A
ITALY | SWITZERLAND | TURKEY | WALES
ITALY
SWITZERLAND
TURKEY
WALES
Playing all their Group A games in Rome is an obvious benefit for Italy, who are third favourites in the betting to reach the quarter-finals yet sixth in the Outright Winner market.
Despite enduring a sevengame winless streak only last year, Switzerland are priced up as second favourites to qualify from Group A. Die Nati do appear overrated when you consider a fair few of their likely starting XI are seriously lacking match fitness.
Turkey look to boast a pleasant degree of balance in their squad. Individuals in defence are ever-improving and have shown themselves to be capable of shutting out teams on par with their Group A opponents.
Managerial issues won’t have helped preparations with Wales but there’s clearly a strong bond between players, and the emotional foundations laid down from 2016 may inspire this younger squad as they aim to upset their outsider tag.
The Azzurri have shown to be more than capable against the lesser lights but there’s still a fear they could be dominated by a more physical midfield and pacey attack later on in the tournament.
The Swiss look to have the least individual spark and attacking quality compared to pool rivals and their change in style could actually play into opposition hands this summer.
With Senol Gunes’ ability to improve youngsters and willingness to let his attacking players showcase their flair, it could be a healthy cocktail for the Crescent Stars coming into this summer’s tournament.
KEY MATCH: TURKEY v WALES | CZECH REPUBLIC | SCOTLAND Exclude Italy and you could argue all three fixtures taking place in Baku involving Switzerland, Wales and Turkey will be key. But the matchday two meeting between Turkey and Wales already appears vital in deciding who will ultimately end up progressing to the last-16. Both sides are ranked as outsiders in their respective match-ups with Italy and Switzerland in the
Swift counter attacks are no doubt going to be key and greater depth in the final third make this Dragons side a serious candidate to at least reach the last-16.
NEED TO KNOW n Over the last two Euros, only Germany (2012) have managed to win all three group games
opening round, so if the odds and probabilities are correct, there will be plenty riding on this one.
n Switzerland face trips between Baku and Rome between all three of their Group A games.
The draw is chalked up as short as 2/1 - highlighting how tight a tussle it could be – and an individual piece of brilliance from a Gareth Bale or Hakan Calhanoglu could prove the difference in what should be a nervy affair.
n No Euro 2020 team managed more shots per-game in competitive matches since the World Cup than Italy’s 17.78.
WELOVEBETTING VERDICT It’s far from a ‘Group of Death’ but there are no obvious whipping boys in Group A, with a relatively tight group boasting stronger collective defences than attacks. Italy are fair favourites but are possibly a touch short at 8/13 (SkyBet) to finish top of tree. The Azzurri could be guaranteed to progress after
the first two fixtures and then motivation and squad rotation becomes questionable. The market has favoured Switzerland (4/7 SkyBet) over Turkey (4/6 Boylesports) To Qualify, although Die Nati look to have the toughest schedule in terms of travel and could represent a fair opportunity to lay. However, it could be
wise to hold off supporting Turkey to progress until after their opening game with Italy, where an inflated price is possible thereafter. PREDICTED FINISH
3
ITALY TURKEY WALES
4
SWITZERLAND
1 2
WELOVEBETTING ULTIMATE EURO 2020 BETTING GUIDE | 9
GROUP A
ITALY | SWITZERLAND | TURKEY | WALES
ITALY since Roberto Mancini took on the coaching gig, immeasurable improvements have followed It’s been a tale of gross underachievement for Italy on the international circuit since the Azzurri’s famous World Cup triumph in 2006. Eliminated in the group-stage in South Africa four years later, Italy fell at the first hurdle again in 2014 before the national embarrassment of failing to even qualify for Russia in 2018. But an injection of quality and dynamism in forward areas, a shift to a more modern playing style, and a winning mentality imposed following a significant change in the dugout, there’s now hope the 2020 renewal will give the nation an opportunity to rediscover their old magic in tournament football. IMPRESSIVE Italy’s rise from the rubble has taken longer than many
expected but it’s fair to say that since Roberto Mancini took on the coaching gig, immeasurable improvements have followed. The former Inter Milan and Manchester City supremo has overseen an impressive W21-D7-L2 record and the Azzurri are to be feared by the continental elite. A solid defensive platform has given the group the foundations to work from, but it’s been far from Catenaccio. The Azzurri have given up just 0.35 goals per-game in competitive outings since September 2018, silencing 15 of their 23 opponents, yet Mancini’s men have plundered an impressive 2.26 goals-pergame themselves in the same sample. Coming into the competition, the Italians also benefit
10 | WELOVEBETTING ULTIMATE EURO 2020 BETTING GUIDE
MEET THE BOSS
ROBERTO MANCINI ROBERTO MANCINI has gained many plaudits for his side’s consistency and ability to dominate games since he arrived in the role in May 2018. Having transformed the team’s fortunes, the 56-yearold signed a fresh contract until after the 2026 World Cup.
from home advantage, with all three of the Azzurri’s Group A games taking place in Rome, whereas pool opponents Turkey, Wales and Switzerland will be required to jet between the Eternal City and Baku, a far from ideal predicament for muchneeded rest, recuperation and preparation. The 5,000 mile round trip from Rome to Baku runs across two time zones – few nations have as far to travel between group-stage games - and possible fatigue could play a part in Italy’s favour aiding their chances of progression. DICTATE One major talking point is the fitness of midfield dynamo Marco Verratti. There’s no disputing the quality of the PSG man, but the experienced 28-year-old’s terrible injury record is of concern. Unlikely to be fit enough to feature before the knockout stages, the impressive Manuel Locatelli, who has shone for Sassuolo this term, is a capable deputy. The all-action midfielder has an array of talents, both offensively and defensively, and could be a starter for the foreseeable future. His
qualities should supplement that of Jorginho who will drop between the centre backs and dictate play from deep, as well as Nicolo Barella, who will venture forward and help create. HIGH PRESSING Elsewhere, Mancini has relied on his full-backs to overload attacks against the lesser lights and it has worked a treat. However, don’t expect the same level of high pressing from what is likely to be Emerson Palmieri and Alessandro Florenzi in the big games. Meanwhile, Giovanni Di Lorenzo‘s calming influence can be called upon in key games. The leadership qualities of Juventus duo Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci could
be key, especially should Verratti miss out. For what they boast in terms of knowledge, positional qualities and sheer experience, the veteran pair may now lack in pace. Nevertheless, the duo will relish the battle with Turkey’s Burak Yilmaz in the opener but could find things tough against the speed Wales possess in forward areas. Juventus have been far from watertight at the back this season and the pair could be caught out if asked to cover out wide for wandering wingbacks further up the field. If Mancini’s troops can sustain their upward trajectory, the Azzurri could be capable of springing a surprise. As the old saying goes, never rule out the Italians.
TACTICAL BRIEFING
Without a real targetman available, Italy have adapted to a more possession-focused approach that relies on clever movement. Gone are the days of Luca Toni or Graziano Pelle winning aerial duels. It’s a much more fluid and dangerous frontline com-
pared to Azzurri sides of the past. Joining Ciro Immobile could be Sassuolo attacker Domenico Berardi, Napoli’s Lorenzo Insigne, Torino’s Andrea Bellotti or Juventus’ Federico Chiesa, all of whom will be vying for places in what is likely to be a modern 4-3-3 formation.
TOP GOALSCORER TIP CIRO IMMOBILE Lazio frontman CIRO IMMOBILE is expected to lead the line for Italy and club coach Simone Inzaghi has shown the best way to maximise his output in Serie A. The challenge for Roberto Mancini is to find a way of replicating that form on the international circuit. Few can challenge Immobile’s 0.70 goals per-game record in Serie A since 2016 and the 31-year-old striker will be relishing games taking place at his Rome base. Immobile is likely to be on
DID YOU KNOW?
WELOVEBETTING VERDICT A reasonable 11/1 (Bet365) is available on Roberto Mancini’s men conquering all before them this summer, and given all the Azzurri’s group games are on home soil, you’d expect to see the four-time world champions in the last-16, at the very least. Should Italy take Group A honours, a likely last 16 tie
with Ukraine, Austria or North Macedonia could be on the cards. Therefore, a place in the quarter-finals appears plausible and 4/6 (Bet365) quotes on the Azzurri reaching the lasteight is well worth a poke. Thereafter, a hypothetical face-off with Belgium could prove a far trickier test.
spot-kick duty and is the team’s most central option, making the 2/1 (Unibet) on Top Italy Goalscorer appealing. Alternative options include 20/1 in the main Top Goalscorer market, the shortest price of any Italian player this summer.
WLB NAP TO REACH THE QUARTER FINALS 4/6 BET365 NEXT BEST CIRO IMMOBILE TO BE TOP ITALY SCORER (2/1 UNIBET)
n Under Roberto Mancini, Italy posted a record for most wins in a calendar year (10). n Roberto Mancini boasts the best win ratio of any Italy coach to take charge of 20+ games (70%). n Italy won all 10 games during Euro 2020 qualifying.
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