THE LAND — MARCH 31, 2023
www.thelandonline.com — “Where Farm and Family Meet”
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Ag’s new normal includes trade deficits, not surpluses Nearly drowned out in all percent.” the farm group cheering Still, that same AFBF that U.S. ag exports hit a analysis showed “In 2022, record high $196 billion last U.S. exports remained conyear was the inarguable centrated in the top six fact that U.S. ag imports markets. Sixty-seven peralso hit a record-high, $199 cent of U.S. ag exports were billion — or $3 billion more to China ($38.2 billion), than ag exports. FARM & FOOD FILE Mexico ($28.5 billion), That’s right, sports fans: Canada ($28.3 billion), By Alan Guebert during its biggest ag export Japan ($14.6 billion), year ever — when the EU-27 ($12.3 billion) and value of American ag South Korea ($9.5 bilexports grew an astonlion).” ishing $19.5 billion, or 11 percent, over Like trade itself, however, those big 2021 — the value of U.S. ag imports players aren’t static. That’s especially grew by $28 billion, or 16 percent. true for China — our biggest, richest All that farm and food outflow and ag customer, suggests a recent article even more farm and food inflow is a by the Council on Foreign Relations. hallmark of ever-changing global marEven while “China ranks first globkets. Caught in that change is ally in producing cereals (such as America’s fading dominance of world corn, wheat, and rice), fruit, vegetaag markets — markets which yielded bles, meat, poultry, eggs, and fishery a $17 billion surplus as recently as products,” CFR explains, it will contin2017. ue to import ag commodities like soyNow, however, it’s ag trade deficits beans whose “cost to grow … in China and none are going away anytime is 1.3 times than it is in the United soon. States, and the yield is 60 percent less.” On Feb. 23, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated the Fiscal Year Which is exactly what happened in 2023 U.S. ag trade deficit will balloon 2022. China’s imports of U.S. soybeans to a wide $14.5 billion as American ag were up 8 percent by volume last year; exports fall to $184.5 billion and ag but its corn import volumes dropped imports remain at $199 billion. 16 percent and wheat fell 13 percent. If accurate (the trade numbers will That may become a trend, foresees be updated May 31), two eye-watering CFR, as China seeks “to diversify its facts leap out. First, FY 2023 will post import sources… In 2021, Brazil the largest ag trade deficit since at replaced the United States as China’s least 1959; and second, 2023’s forecast largest agricultural supplier, providing means U.S. ag will have run trade def- 20 percent of China’s agricultural icits in four of the last five years. imports.” Few, if any, American farmers have Other observers agree. witnessed a similar run of export red In a cold-eyed analysis of recent ink. trade patterns between China and the Part of the U.S. shift to trade deficits United States, the Peterson Institute swings on 2022’s strong commodity for International Economics (Peterson) prices tied to both the Ukrainiansays the die was cast when “U.S. Russian war and global weather woes; exports to China … cratered during and the export slowdown those steep, President Donald Trump’s trade war volatile prices caused global buyers. of 2018-19” and now “are continuing to suffer.” For example, notes the American Farm Bureau Federation in a recent Farmers and policy makers should Market Intel report, “(E)xport value take heed, because Peterson is not across all products [in 2022] increased some lily-livered, lefty anti-trade hotby 11 percent year-over-year, but house. It is, in fact, the direct opposite. export volume actually declined by 6 See GUEBERT, pg. 7
OPINION
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