THE LAND — OCTOBER 14, 2022
www.thelandonline.com — “Where Farm and Family Meet”
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Soybean crush levels hit new contract highs NYSTROM, from pg. 14A in September, which happened this year. December corn in September gained 4.75 cents. For the week, December corn gained 5.75 cents to $6.83.25; March was up 7 cents higher at $6.91; and December 2023 rallied 7.75 cents to $6.24.5 per bushel. SOYBEANS — The new month began with our first daily export sale since Sept. 19 with 4 million bushels sold to unknown in what was considered routine business. The market seesawed back and forth from unchanged with higher equity and energy markets finally winning the day for a higher close. However, the second half of the week brought lower prices as the U.S. harvest pushed toward 50 percent completion with yield reports “as expected” the most common theme. The board crush levels hit new contract highs keeping processing very attractive. Brazil’s weather continues to promote planting and private estimates running significantly higher than the USDA’s 149 mmt forecast. Conab raised its estimate to a record 152.35 mmt. Argentina remains dry with over half of the region experiencing unfavorable planting conditions. China was on holiday all week for Golden Week — although there were rumors of China buying a couple of U.S. soybean cargoes for November and interest in the December slot. November soybeans traded to their lowest price since late July and partially filled the downside gap. The logistical issues on the U.S. river system were discussed in the corn section and will bring headaches for weeks to come. It was reported the largest barge operator in the United States called force majeure on the Mississippi River. Logistics are difficult with low water on the river system limiting movement and we don’t know yet if there will be a railroad strike down the road. Weekly export sales were unimpressive at 28.6 million bushels, bringing total commitments to 1 billion
Payments will vary THIESSE, from pg. 11A options. Details on various crop insurance policies can be found on the RMA website at www.rma.usda.gov/. There is also some good crop insurance information and spreadsheets to estimate crop insurance payments available on the University of Illinois FarmDoc web site, which is located at www.farmdoc. uiuc.edu/ Kent Thiesse is a government farm programs analyst and a vice president at MinnStar Bank in Lake Crystal, Minn. He may be reached at (507) 726-2137 or kent.thiesse@minnstarbank.com. v
bushels. China has 14 mmt of U.S. soybeans on the books compared to 12.4 mmt last year on this date. The August NASS Crush report was as expected with 175.1 million bushels of soybeans crushed. This is the second-highest August crush on record after 2019. For the 2021-22 marketing year, 2.203 billion bushels of soybeans were crushed which is in line with the USDA’s 2.205 billion bushel forecast. Argentina’s national weather service is forecasting drier and warmer-than-normal weather for the next three months, keeping La Niña in play for the third year in a row. Argentina had its third-driest September in 43 years. While late planting doesn’t correlate to lower corn and bean yields, dry conditions from October through December do. Argentina had its driest September since 2006 with calendar year-to-date precipitation the lowest since 2013. Brazil, on the other hand, has had good planting conditions with 5 percent of the soybeans planted vs. 3 percent planted on average. The average trade estimates for the October WASDE report: soybean yield unchanged from last month at 50.5 bu./acre. Production is expected to be slightly higher at 4.381 billion bushels vs. 4.378 billion last month. Ending stocks are expected to increase 28 million bushels to 248 million bushels due to the bigger carry-in from the 2021-22 crop. Outlook: How will the river export corridor barge limitations affect the basis and spreads? If you can’t ship, it will back up bushels in the interior; but numbers favor trying to get soybeans moved over corn. Why would you want to take delivery if you can’t ship it? But if you owe export bushels, where do you get them? More headaches and uncertainty lie ahead.
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Macroeconomic factors will contribute to big daily swings. November soybeans dipped into the downside gap from $13.56 to $13.49.25 per bushel that was left from July but didn’t quite fill it. The gap is now from $13.50 to $13.49.25 per bushel. For the week, November soybeans managed a 2.25-cent gain at $13.67, January edged 3.75 cents higher at $13.79.25, and November 2023 jumped 14.75 cents to $13.55.75 per bushel. Weekly price changes in December wheat for the week ended Oct. 7: Chicago wheat plunged 41.25 cents to $8.80.25, Kansas City dropped 22.75 cents to $9.68.75, and Minneapolis fell 14 cents to $9.68 per bushel. v