UpSkill Tampa Bay: Opportunities for Upskilling and Career Transition

SEPTEMBER 2021

UPSKILL TAMPA BAY OPPORTUNITIES FOR UPSKILLING AND CAREER TRANSITION

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS UPSKILL TAMPA BAY is an initiative of the Tampa Bay Partnership and Tampa Bay Works. It builds on Tampa Bay Works’ efforts with Talent Pipeline Management® and leverages existing employer collaboratives in healthcare and manufacturing. We would like to thank JPMorgan Chase & Co., for its funding and support for this initiative.

We would also like to thank the Orlando Economic Partnership, in particular Dr. Dale Brill, Danielle Permenter, and Phoebe Fleming, for their collaboration and guidance. Finally, we would like to thank the regional employers that participated in the UpSkill Tampa Bay pilot project and the community partners who helped us reach jobseekers.

The Tampa Bay Partnership, with the support of all listed above, led the development of this report through its research and education foundation. Rick Homans, president and CEO, provided leadership and strategic vision.

Dave Sobush, director, policy and research, served as project manager for this initiative. Additional support was provided by Jennifer Mikosky, VP, strategic communications and outreach, and Courtney McDonnell, program director. Dr. Byron Clayton of Tampa Bay Works and Mireya Eavey of Mireya Eavey Company led the implementation of the pilot project. The co-chairs of the Regional Talent Working Group—Nikky Flores, market executive at JPMorgan Chase & Co., and David Dufort, director of operations at Amgen—and the members of the working group provided input and feedback over the course of the project. The volunteer leadership of the Tampa Bay Partnership—Chad Loar, regional president of PNC Bank, and Brian Auld, president of the Tampa Bay Rays and vice chairman of the Tampa Bay Rowdies—provided ongoing support.

The research in this report was performed by Alexander Research & Consulting. Graphic design was provided by Safflor Design.

ABOUT US THE TAMPA BAY PARTNERSHIP is a coalition of regional business leaders, joined by a shared commitment to improving the personal and economic well-being of Tampa Bay residents. Through its foundation, the Partnership conducts objective, data-driven research to identify the region’s greatest challenges and measure progress toward shared community goals.

TAMPA BAY WORKS, a spin-off of the Tampa Bay Partnership, is a regional, industry-focused response to the talent shortage in Tampa Bay. JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. (NYSE: JPM) is a leading global financial services firm with assets of $3.7 trillion and operations worldwide. The Firm is a leader in investment banking, financial services for consumers and small businesses, commercial banking, financial transaction processing, and asset management. JPMorgan Chase & Co. has more than 5,000 employees working in the Tampa Bay area among its businesses. The firm has invested more than $1 million in local workforce initiatives since 2018, including $550,000 in the Tampa Bay Partnership to address regional workforce challenges. Information about JPMorgan Chase & Co. is available at www.jpmorganchase.com.

CONTENTS Executive Summary

1

Introduction

5

Identifying Impacted and Opportunity Occupations

11

Select Impacted Occupations

14

Select High-Opportunity Occupations

15

Evaluating Occupational Similarity, Transferable Skills, and Career Transitions

17

Examples of Viable Transitions

20

Implementing Skills-Based Hiring

25

For Job Seekers: Understanding Your Skills and Potential

26

For Employers: Focus on Critical Skills, Not Experience

28

For Intermediaries: Reach beyond the Workshop

29

UpSkill Tampa Bay: Putting It into Practice

31

Pathway: Financial Services

34

Pathway: Healthcare

37

Pathway: Manufacturing

40

Appendix A. Select Impacted and Opportunity Occupations

43

Appendix B. Viable Career Transitions

49

Appendix C. Data and Methods

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1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The COVID-19 pandemic caused an unprecedented disruption in the labor market. Unemployment in the Tampa Bay Region soared to 13.9 percent, and more than 112,000 people dropped out of the labor force.

Once economic activity resumed after restrictions were eased, a K-shaped recovery began. Some industries were still struggling more than a year into the pandemic, while others were hardly impacted by the economic shutdown. Likewise, some individuals and populations suffered immeasurably, while others, from the safety of their homes, saw their wealth and income grow. The pandemic exposed vulnerabilities and exacerbated inequity.

In addition, the uneven recovery and pandemicinduced changes altered the regional employment base, in some cases permanently. The occupational mix, skills required, and geographic location of jobs in the region shifted. At the same time, workers’ ability and desire to work were impacted by complex factors, such as health risk, childcare availability, and changes in workplace preferences.

By spring 2021, employers’ hiring activity in the region had surpassed pre-COVID levels to the point where there were two job postings for every one unemployed person. Employers reported difficulty filling a wide range of positions but particularly entry-level positions.

With these changes and challenges in mind, the Tampa Bay Partnership launched UpSkill Tampa Bay, in collaboration with Tampa Bay Works and Orlando Economic Partnership. The initiative, funded by JPMorgan Chase & Co., seeks to help displaced workers access high-opportunity career pathways and to

assist employers in identifying and targeting new and more diverse talent pools for their hard-to-fill, critical occupations through a skills-based approach.

Using available labor market data, occupations were identified as impacted or opportunity. Impacted occupations were affected by the pandemic and were already in decline due to long-term trends, such as automation and artificial intelligence. Opportunity occupations were those that were stable during the pandemic and experienced strong growth prior to COVID. Next, the skills of the impacted and opportunity occupations were compared. To measure the similarity of the skills portfolios of impacted and opportunity occupations, more than 1,400 pairs of occupations were evaluated. Each pair consisted of one impacted occupation and one opportunity occupation. The similarity of the skills portfolios was measured using an algorithm that calculated a score between zero and one. The higher the similarity score, the greater the alignment of skills and the more viable the transition from an impacted to an opportunity occupation.

Of these pairs, 190 pairs met thresholds for wage gains and similarity score. These are considered viable transitions. An analysis of these viable transitions showed a substantial base of shared skills even for the pairs that scored between 0.33 and 0.49. The majority of the viable transitions require a change in occupational family and about half of these require additional education, such as a postsecondary certificate or, in a few cases, an associate’s degree. All of them showed the potential for significant wage gains, particularly those that require a change in occupational family.

Figure 1. STRATEGIES FOR TRANSITIONING TO A SKILLS-BASED TALENT MARKET PLACE

FOR JOB SEEKERS 1. Assess skills.

2. Identify potential careers and skills gaps.

3. Acquire skills.

FOR EMPLOYERS 1. Identify critical skills and competencies.

2. Hire for skills and potential.

FOR INTERMEDIARIES 1. Foster a culture of skills.

2. Dedicate resources for deep outreach and assistance.

3. Follow-up and share success.

4. Search and apply for jobs.

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UPSKILL TAMPA BAY

To demonstrate how such an approach would work, Tampa Bay Works is conducting a pilot program between May and October 2021. The UpSkill Tampa

UPSKILL TAMPA BAY

Bay pilot project sought to assist employers in adapting their hiring processes for select, hard-tofill positions to use a more skills-based approach in order to connect with a larger, more diverse talent pool. Twelve employers in three industry sectors participated in the pilot and used this approach for 26 different positions. At the time of publication, the pilot is still underway and outreach to job seekers has just begun, thus, results of the pilot cannot be reported at this time.

In all, the research shows a high degree of potential for impacted workers to put their skills to work in higher opportunity careers. By applying their skills in new occupational settings and acquiring additional specialized skills, workers can gain access to higher-paying jobs with greater opportunities for mobility. At the same time, employers can access larger, more diverse talent pools by removing degree and experience requirements and hiring for skills and potential.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This research provides evidence that workers, who can utilize their existing base of skills and apply it to a new occupation in a different occupation family, have the potential to realize considerable wage gains. Though many of the transitions do not require an additional education credential, all would likely require on-thejob training or additional training to acquire skills specific to the opportunity occupation. To actualize these transitions, however, job seekers will need to understand their own skillsets and how they are transferable to these new roles, and employers will need to recognize which skills are critical and how they can be acquired in other occupational settings. In other words, job seekers and employers must embrace a more skills-based model in the labor market. The strategies listed in Figure 1 provide guidance to help job seekers and employers adopt a skills-based approach.

3

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2

INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 global pandemic caused a severe and sudden disruption in the labor market. In the Tampa Bay Region, unemployment soared to 13.9 percent, and an unprecedented 112,000 people dropped out of the labor force during the shutdown in March and April of 2020. Once restrictions were eased, the economy began an uneven recovery; some industry sectors have thrived, while others struggle to survive.

Sectors such as leisure and hospitality, education and

health services, and government have lost a staggering number of jobs over the course of the pandemic. Other sectors, however, such as professional and business services; transportation, warehousing, and utilities; and financial activities saw their payrolls expand substantially. (See Figure 2.) A year into the pandemic, the industries that thrived were 2 percent above their employment level in February 2020, while industries that struggled were 7 percent below. (See Figure 3.)

Figure 2. EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, TAMPA BAY REGION* CHANGE FEBRUARY 2020–MARCH 2021 Professional and Business Services

7,100

Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities

1,600

Financial Activities

1,300

Construction

600

Mining and Logging

0

Wholesale Trade

-800

Information

-1,200

Retail Trade

-1,700

Other Services

-1,700

Manufacturing

-1,800

Gove rnment

-5,900 -10,100

Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality

-24,300

*The Tampa Bay Region includes Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, and Hernando Counties.

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.

Figure 3. EMPLOYMENT, TAMPA BAY REGION INDEXED TO FEBRUARY 2020 105.0

 PRE-COVID

102.4

RECOVERY ►

100.0

95.0

92.7

90.0

85.0

03-2021

02-2021

01-2021

12-2020

11-2020

10-2020

09-2020

08-2020

07-2020

06-2020

05-2020

04-2020

03-2020

02-2020

01-2020

12-2019

11-2019

10-2019

09-2019

08-2019

07-2019

06-2019

Surviving 05-2019

04-2019

02-2019

01-2019

03-2019

Thriving

80.0

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.

Note: Thriving includes professional and business services; transportation, warehousing, and utilities; and financial activities.

Surviving includes government; education and health services; and leisure and hospitality.

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The uneven recovery and pandemic-induced changes have altered workforce demand, which has resulted in shifts in the skills, occupation mix, and geography of the regional employment base.

”

INTRODUCTION

“

While these trends unfolded among industry sectors, a similar notion of a K-shaped recovery emerged amid divergent experiences of individuals and populations. Essential workers, who represent about 17 percent of workers in the Tampa Bay Region, have braved the workplace amid surges in COVID-19 cases, while an estimated 34 percent of workers in the region could work from the safety of home.

High unemployment and economic instability have persisted among many low-skill, lower-wage workers in the region. Within the Tampa Bay Region, workers in jobs that require no formal education experienced an unemployment rate four times higher than that of workers in occupations that typically require a bachelor’s degree. (See Figure 4.) At the same time, wealthier Americans have enjoyed a surge in home prices and stock prices. The median home price in the region increased more than 17 percent between March 2020 and March 2021, while the S&P 500 index appreciated 60 percent. In this way, inequity has been exacerbated by disparities in race, wealth, health, and gender that were magnified by the pandemic.

Though the pandemic was far from over, by August 2020, a wide range of employers in the Tampa Bay Region was again looking to hire workers, and the level of monthly job posting activity began to exceed the 2019 average. Since this time, monthly job posting activity has continued to climb, and

by March 2021, it was 33 percent above the 2019 average. In fact, by March 2021, there were almost two job postings for every one unemployed person in the region, and the labor force, which is composed of those individuals working or looking for work, had recovered to its pre-pandemic level. Although 74,000 people were unemployed, employers reported difficulty filling a wide range of positions but particularly low-skill positions. (See Job Posting Activity in the Tampa Bay Region on page 9.)

Furthermore, the uneven recovery and pandemicinduced changes have altered workforce demand, which has resulted in shifts in the skills, occupation mix, and geography of the regional employment base. It has also influenced workers’ ability and desire to work due to complex factors, such as health risk, childcare availability, and changes in workplace preferences.

Figure 4. AVERAGE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BY EDUCATION REQUIRED OF OCCUPATION, TAMPA BAY REGION DECEMBER 2020 No formal educational credential

10.4%

High school diploma or e quivalent

5.8%

Some College, Less than Bachelor's

4.0% 2.6%

Bachelor's degree Master's de gree Doctoral or professional degree

1.8% 0.9%

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.

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INTRODUCTION

JOB POSTING ACTIVITY IN THE TAMPA BAY REGION PANDEMIC TRENDS MONTHLY UNIQUE JOB POSTINGS, TAMPA BAY REGION 140,000 120,000



100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000

03-2021

02-2021

01-2021

12-2020

11-2020

10-2020

09-2020

08-2020

07-2020

06-2020

05-2020

04-2020

03-2020

02-2020

01-2020

12-2019

11-2019

10-2019

09-2019

08-2019

07-2019

06-2019

05-2019

04-2019

03-2019

02-2019

01-2019

0

MONTHLY UNIQUE JOB POSTINGS COMPARISON TO 2019 AVERAGE 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0%



0.0% -10.0% -20.0%

03-2021

02-2021

01-2021

12-2020

11-2020

10-2020

09-2020

08-2020

07-2020

06-2020

05-2020

04-2020

03-2020

02-2020

01-2020

-30.0%

 Indicates the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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UNIQUE POSTINGS, TOP COMPANIES

UNIQUE POSTINGS, TOP INDUSTRIES Industry

Postings

Company

Postings

Administrative & Support Services

29,042

Citigroup Inc.

3,559

Health Care & Social Assistance

23,660

BayCare Home Care, Inc.

2,545

Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services

22,664

Oracle Corporation

1,906

Retail Trade

17,870

HCA Holdings, Inc.

1,553

Finance & Insurance

15,123

Anthem, Inc.

1,143

Accommodation and Food Services

10,279

AdventHealth

1,088

Manufacturing

8,369

CVS Health Corporation

1,006

Information

6,718

Humana Inc.

998

Transportation & Warehousing

5,737

Walmart Inc.

994

Other Services (except Public Administration)

4,861

Moffitt Cancer Center

884

INTRODUCTION

JANUARY TO MARCH 2021 TRENDS

UNIQUE POSTINGS, TOP JOB TITLES

UNIQUE POSTINGS, TOP OCCUPATIONS Occupation (SOC)

Postings

Company

Postings

Registered Nurses

13,659

CDL-A Truck Drivers

1,996

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

6,997

Customer Service Reps.

1,154

Customer Service Representatives

5,957

Registered Nurses

916

Software Devs. & Softw. Quality Assure. Analysts & Testers

5,910

Delivery Drivers

766

Retail Salespersons

5,194

Licensed Practical Nurses

689

First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers

4,145

Administrative Assistants

669

Computer Occupations, All Other

3,982

ICU Registered Nurses

649

First-Line Supervisors of Office & Admin. Support Workers

3,269

Pharmacy Technicians

643

Home Health and Personal Care Aides

3,228

Certified Nursing Assistants

617

Management Analysts

2,868

Sales Associates

595

Source: (all figures) Emsi Job Posting Analytics.

UPSKILL TAMPA BAY

9

INTRODUCTION

To fill open positions, employers will need to take a critical look at their hiring practices and who they might unnecessarily filter out through these practices. Employers who hire for skills and potential will find that they can access a larger, more agile, and more diverse talent pool. Google, Hilton Hotels, Ernst & Young, and IBM are examples of some of the companies that have focused their job postings on skills and removed degree requirements to expand their search for qualified, skilled talent.1

workers in the civilian labor force without a 4-year degree are people of color, while only 33 percent of workers with a 4-year degree (or higher) are people of color. Furthermore, lifting unnecessary same-industry or same-occupation experience requirements can similarly broaden the applicant pool. In particular, it can be beneficial to recognize that skills acquired from different occupations or industries are transferable and can be applied in various work environments.

Figure 5. EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF THE LABOR FORCE, TAMPA BAY REGION LABOR FORCE PARTICIPANTS, 25 TO 64 YEARS

With these trends in mind, the Tampa Bay Partnership launched UpSkill Tampa Bay, in collaboration with Tampa Bay Works and Orlando Economic Partnership. The initiative, funded by JP Morgan Chase & Co., seeks to help displaced workers access high-opportunity career pathways and to assist employers in identifying and targeting new and more diverse talent pools for their hard-to-fill, critical occupations through a skills-based approach.

This is an extension of the work that Tampa Bay Works has done with Talent Pipeline Management® and leverages the existing employer collaboratives in healthcare and manufacturing while engaging new employers around critical workforce shortages.

Less than high school graduate High school graduate or equivalent Some college or associate's degree Bachelor's degree or higher

38%

7%

30%

25%

Source: US Census, 2019 American Community Survey, 1-year estimates.

This report explores the occupations that were most impacted by the pandemic and that were in decline before COVID-19. It identifies a select set of high-opportunity occupations and careers that are in demand and resilient. Using an algorithm to score the similarity in skills between impacted and opportunity occupations, the report highlights the impacted occupations that have the highest percentage of transferable skills aligned with the opportunity occupations. Next, the report provides a brief guide for implementing skills-based hiring.

Finally, it provides an overview of the UpSkill Tampa Bay employer pilot.

Examining the use of degree and experience requirements in job postings can make a significant difference. In the Tampa Bay Region, 62 percent of workers do not have a 4-year degree. (See Figure 5.) Eliminating degree requirements and instead focusing on essential skills can open the field of qualified applicants to thousands more. In addition, opening positions to workers without 4-year degrees expands the field to a more diverse set of candidates. In the Tampa Bay Region, 43 percent of

1 “The Future of Work after COVID-19.” McKinsey Global Institute. February 18, 2021. See www.mckinsey.com/featuredinsights/future-of-work/the-future-of-work-after-covid-19.

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3

IDENTIFYING IMPACTED AND OPPORTUNITY OCCUPATIONS

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To understand which occupations were impacted

by COVID-19 and by longer-term trends and which occupations offer more opportunity for careers with family sustaining wages, a research framework was applied to examine employment trends for each occupation before and during the pandemic.

At the beginning of the pandemic, almost 250 thousand workers lost their jobs, were furloughed, or exited the labor force in the Tampa Bay Region in March and April of 2020. At this time, the unemployment rates surged for many occupational families. For some of these occupational groups, the average unemployment rate surged above 15 percent. These included personal care and service; food preparation and serving related; construction and extraction; production; arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media; and building and grounds cleaning and maintenance. For other occupational groups, including business and financial operations; life, physical; and social science; legal; community and social service; and computer and mathematical, the average unemployment rates never rose above 5 percent.

By December 2020, unemployment had recovered substantially. However, the average unemployment rate remained above 10 percent for construction and extraction; food preparation and serving related; personal care and service; and farming, fishing, and forestry. At the same time, the average unemployment rate was below 3 percent for management; legal; architecture and engineering; protective service; life, physical and social science; computer and mathematical; community and social service; and healthcare practitioners and technical.

(See Figure 6.)

In addition, many of the unemployed workers were in occupations that had been declining even before the pandemic. About one out of every four occupations experienced negative growth prior to COVID-19, from 2014 to 2019, and almost one in three occupations experienced positive growth that was below the regional average growth rate of 13.2 percent. The occupations that experienced above average growth represented 41 percent of all occupations. (See Figure 7.)

Figure 6. AVERAGE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BY OCCUPATIONAL FAMILY, TAMPA BAY REGION FEBRUARY 2020–DECEMBER 2020 Occupational Family Construction and Extraction Food Preparation and Serving Related

February

April

December

Change Feb–Dec

8.0%

21.6%

13.5%

+5.5%

4.4%

31.9%

12.1%

+7.6%

11.6%

9.9%

11.5%

-0.1%

Personal Care and Service

2.7%

37.6%

10.3%

+7.6%

Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance

5.3%

16.0%

7.0%

+1.7%

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media

3.5%

16.8%

6.8%

+3.4%

Transportation and Material Moving

3.2%

14.3%

6.2%

+3.0%

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair

2.4%

13.4%

5.2%

+2.8%

Office and Administrative Support

2.9%

10.2%

4.7%

+1.8%

Production

4.6%

17.6%

4.7%

+0.0%

Sales and Related

3.1%

13.0%

3.6%

+0.5%

Business and Financial Operations

1.7%

4.7%

3.3%

+1.6%

Educational Instruction and Library

1.7%

13.8%

3.1%

+1.5%

Healthcare Support

1.3%

8.5%

3.1%

+1.8%

Management

1.4%

5.2%

2.6%

+1.1%

Legal

1.3%

4.0%

2.5%

+1.3%

Architecture and Engineering

1.5%

5.2%

2.4%

+0.9%

Protective Service

1.6%

6.7%

2.3%

+0.7%

Life, Physical, and Social Science

2.7%

4.7%

2.1%

-0.6%

Computer and Mathematical

2.0%

3.2%

2.1%

+0.1%

Community and Social Service

0.2%

3.8%

1.4%

+1.2%

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical

1.0%

5.2%

1.1%

+0.2%

Farming, Fishing, and Forestry

Source: JobsEQ.

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Negative Growth 28%

Above Average Growth 41%

Positive but Below Average 31% Source: JobsEQ.

The declining occupations were most concentrated in a handful of occupation families. The occupation families that experienced negative average growth rates between 2014 and 2019 were farming, fishing, and forestry; office and administrative support; and legal. The occupational families that experienced the highest average growth were computer and mathematical; food preparation and serving related; and business and financial operations. (See Figure 8.)

The occupations that experienced a rise in unemployment during the pandemic and were either in decline or growing relatively slowly prior to the pandemic are considered impacted occupations for the purpose of the study.2 In all, there were 182 occupations that fell at the intersection of these two trends.

The occupations that experienced strong growth prior to the pandemic and were stable during the pandemic are considered opportunity occupations.3 In all, there were 212 occupations that fell at the intersection of these two trends. See Appendix A for a list of all impacted and opportunity occupations.

Figure 8. AVERAGE HISTORIC GROWTH BY OCCUPATION FAMILY PERCENT CHANGE 2014–2019 Computer and Mathematical Food Preparation and Serving Related Business and Financial Operations Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Construction and Extraction Management Architecture and Engineering Life, Physical, and Social Science Community and Social Service Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Healthcare Support Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Protective Service Production Personal Care and Service Transportation and Material Moving Sales and Related Educational Instruction and Library Legal Office and Administrative Support Farming, Fishing, and Forestry

27% 22% 18% 17% 17% 16% 15% 15% 14% 14% 13% 12% 11% 9% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2%

I D E N T I F Y I N G I M P A C T E D A N D O P P O R T U N I T YI N O TCRCOUDP U AC TT IO IO NN S

Figure 7. DISTRIBUTION OF OCCUPATIONS BY HISTORIC GROWTH CATEGORY, TAMPA BAY REGION CHANGE 2014–2019

-2% -3% -17%

Source: JobsEQ. 2 “In decline” or “relatively slow” growth is defined as a growth rate of 10 percent or less from 2014 to 2019; “rising” unemployment is defined as a change in unemployment from February 2020 to December 2020 of more than 1 percent.

3 “Strong growth” is defined as a growth rate of more than 10 percent from 2014 to 2019; “stable” is defined as a change in unemployment from February 2020 to December 2020 of 1 percent or less.

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SELECT IMPACTED OCCUPATIONS To narrow the focus of the study, impacted occupations that represented less than 0.1 percent of the regional employment base were filtered out, as were occupations that required more than an associate’s degree. This resulted in a list of 38 impacted occupations that represent a significant share of the employment base and are considered low-skill or middle-skill occupations.

These occupations are listed in Appendix A. Select Impacted and Opportunity Occupations, page 43.

than half of the occupations had median wages below a living wage.4 Forty-two percent of the occupations have an automation index higher than the average, which means the occupations are more likely to be affected by automation. Workers in these occupations are more likely to be female and people of color.

(See Appendix A. Select Impacted and Opportunity Occupations, page 43.)

Many of the occupations in this list have common skills. Figure 9 shows the top 10 baseline and specialized skills for the group of impacted occupations. Workers in almost all of the impacted occupations, for example, have baseline skills including communications, organizational, and teamwork/collaboration skills. Customer service is the most common specialized skill.

Together these occupations represent almost 20 percent of the region’s total employment. On average, employment in these occupations shrunk by 1 percent between 2014 and 2019. From February 2020 to December 2020, the unemployment rate in these occupations increased by 3 percent, on average. More

Figure 9. COMMON SKILLS OF IMPACTED OCCUPATIONS BASELINE AND SPECIALIZED SKILLS BY NUMBER OF OCCUPATIONS REQUIRING THAT SKILL █ Baseline Skills

█ Specialized Skills

Communication Skills

36

Organizational Skills

35

Teamwork/Collaboration

32

Detail-Oriented

29

Physical Abilities

27

English

24

Computer Literacy

23

Multitasking

21

Writing

19

Microsoft Office

18

Customer Service

33

Scheduling

29

Customer Contact

14

Cleaning

12

Data Entry

12

Lifting Ability

12

Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR)

9

Retail Industry Knowledge

8

Sales

8

Customer Checkout

7

Source: Burning Glass via Orlando Economic Partnership.

4 According to the MIT Living Wage calculator, the annual living wage in the Tampa MSA is $34,881 (with an hourly wage of $16.77), based on two working adults and one child.

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High-opportunity occupations were selected that had strong growth prior to the pandemic, were stable during the pandemic, and had a median wage above the regional living wage. There were 115 occupations that fell into this category. The occupations that require less than a bachelor’s degree and less than 5 years of experience are listed in Appendix A. Select Impacted and Opportunity Occupations, page 43.

These 43 occupations are the focus of the skills analysis as they correspond more closely with the education required of the impacted occupations.

quarters of these occupations have a lower-thanaverage automation index, which means they are less likely to be affected by automation. These occupations are more likely to be dominated by males and have fewer people of color. (See Appendix A. Select Impacted and Opportunity Occupations, page 43.)

Figure 10 shows the common skills of the opportunity occupations. The top baseline skills shared among these occupations are communication skills, computer literacy, organizational skills, physical abilities, and teamwork/collaboration. The top specialized skills are customer service and scheduling.

These 43 occupations are expected to have almost 68,000 openings over the next 5 years. About three-

Figure 10. COMMON SKILLS OF OPPORTUNITY OCCUPATIONS BASELINE AND SPECIALIZED SKILLS BY NUMBER OF OCCUPATIONS REQUIRING THAT SKILL █ Baseline Skills

█ Specialized Skills

Communication Skills

38

Computer Literacy

29

Organizational Skills

29

Physical Abilities

28

Teamwork/Collaboration

27

Detail-Oriented

23

Problem-Solving

23

English

18

Troubleshooting

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SELECT HIGH-OPPORTUNITY OCCUPATIONS

15

Microsoft Office

14

Writing

14

Customer Service

24

Scheduling

20

Cleaning

15

Personal Protective Equipment (PPE)

15

Repair

12

Patient Care

10

Hand Tools

9

Sales

8

Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR)

7

Customer Contact

7

Life Support

7

Machinery

7

Power Tools

7

Quality Assurance and Control

7

Source: Burning Glass via Orlando Economic Partnership.

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15

16

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4

EVALUATING OCCUPATIONAL SIMILARITY, TRANSFERABLE SKILLS, AND CAREER TRANSITIONS

E V A L U A T I N G O C C U P A T I O N A L S I M I L A R I T Y , T R A N S F E R A B L E S K I L L S , A N D C A R EI ENRT T R ROADNUS C I TTI O I ONN S

18

A comparison of the top 25 skills of the impacted and opportunity occupations shows a significant overlap, particularly of baseline skills. Figure 11 compares the top baseline and specialized skills of the occupations. The top baseline skills commonly requested of the opportunity occupations are also common for the impacted occupations. In addition, the specialized skills that are required of both

opportunity occupations and impacted occupations are customer service, scheduling, customer contact, cleaning, cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), and sales. This overlap in skills indicates that there may be some viable transitions from impacted occupations to opportunity occupations that are not obvious when considering past experience or formal education level.

Figure 11. COMMON SKILLS OF IMPACTED AND OPPORTUNITY OCCUPATIONS BASELINE AND SPECIALIZED SKILLS BY NUMBER OF OCCUPATIONS THAT REQUIRE THAT SKILL Skill

Skill Type

Impacted Occupations

Opportunity Occupations

Communication Skills

Baseline

36

38

Computer Literacy

Baseline

23

29

Organizational Skills

Baseline

35

29

Physical Abilities

Baseline

27

28

Teamwork/Collaboration

Baseline

32

27

Detail-Oriented

Baseline

29

23

Problem-Solving

Baseline

18

23

English

Baseline

24

18

Troubleshooting

Baseline

4

15

Microsoft Office

Baseline

18

14

Writing

Baseline

19

14

Customer Service

Specialized

33

24

Scheduling

Specialized

29

20

Cleaning

Specialized

12

15

Personal Protective Equipment (PPE)

Specialized

15

Repair

Specialized

12

Patient Care

Specialized

10

Hand Tools

Specialized

9

Sales

Specialized

8

8

Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR)

Specialized

9

7

Customer Contact

Specialized

14

7

Life Support

Specialized

7

Machinery

Specialized

7

Power Tools

Specialized

7

Quality Assurance and Control

Specialized

7

Source: Burning Glass via Orlando Economic Partnership.

To understand which specific impacted occupations have strong foundations of transferable skills that correspond to an opportunity occupation, 1,406 pairs of occupations were analyzed. These pairs were made up of one impacted occupation and one opportunity occupation. The similarity of the skills required of each occupation was measured using an algorithm that calculates a similarity score that incorporates both the presence of the skill in the list of top 25 skills for each occupation and the frequency that the skill appears in job postings for that occupation (skill intensity, or the percent

of job postings that included that skill). (For a full description of the methodology, see Appendix C. Data and Methods.)

Of the 1,406 pairs evaluated, 190 pairs met the threshold for similarity score and a wage gain of 10 percent or more. These 190 pairs were grouped according to their similarity score. (See Figure 12.) A similarity score ranges from zero to one. The higher the similarity score, the greater the alignment of skills portfolios and the more viable the transition from an impacted occupation to an opportunity occupation.

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Thirty-five transitions had scores between 0.50 and 0.66. These pairs, in general, had between 10 and 13 skills that overlapped. Only 11 transitions had scores over 0.66. These pairs had 14 or more skills overlap and higher skill intensity values.

144

Of the 190 potential transitions that are most viable, only 34 were between occupations in the same occupational family and only 4 of these would require additional education or training. On the other hand, 156 would require a change of occupational family. Half of these would require additional formal education or training. (See Figure 13.)

35 11 Low (0.33-0.49)

Medium (0.50-0.66)

High (>0.67)

Source: Alexander Research and Consulting calculations.

Three-quarters of the occupational pairs, or transitions, that met the wage difference and similarity score thresholds had scores between 0.33 and 0.49. These pairs, in general, had 10 or fewer skills that overlapped and lower skill intensity values.

The potential wage gains of all these transitions are substantial. A comparison of the median annual wages for each occupation in the pair yields an overall average wage increase of almost 60 percent.

Even the transitions that do not require an additional education credential yield wage gains of 35 percent or more. The transitions that involve a change in occupational family present an opportunity for larger potential wage increases. (See Figure 14.)

Figure 13. CHARACTERISTICS OF VIABLE TRANSITIONS BY COUNT OCCUPATIONAL PAIRS WITH SIMILARITY SCORES > 0.33 No Change in Occupational Family Similarity Score Range

No Further Education

High (>0.67)

Additional Formal Education

6

Change in Occupational Family No Further Education

Additional Formal Education

Total

3

2

11

Medium (0.50-0.66)

14

2

11

8

35

Low (0.33-0.49)

10

2

64

68

144

Total

30

4

78

78

190

Source: ARC Calculations.

Figure 14. WAGE DIFFERENCES OF OCCUPATIONAL PAIRS SIMILARITY SCORES > 0.33, DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MEDIAN ANNUAL WAGES OF IMPACTED OCCUPATION AND OPPORTUNITY OCCUPATION No Change in Occupational Family Similarity Score Range

No Further Education

Additional Formal Education

Change in Occupational Family No Further Education

Additional Formal Education

Total

42%

58%

45%

High (>0.67)

43%

Medium (0.50-0.66)

35%

26%

56%

42%

43%

Low (0.33-0.49)

60%

33%

65%

64%

64%

Total

45%

29%

63%

62%

59%

E V A L U A T I N G O C C U P A T I O N A L S I M I L A R I T Y , T R A N S F E R A B L E S K I L L S , A N D C A R EI ENRT T R ROADNUS C I TTI O I ONN S

Figure 12. DISTRIBUTION OF VIABLE TRANSITIONS BY SIMILARITY SCORE

Source: ARC Calculations.

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E V A L U A T I N G O C C U P A T I O N A L S I M I L A R I T Y , T R A N S F E R A B L E S K I L L S , A N D C A R EI ENRT T R ROADNUS C I TTI O I ONN S

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EXAMPLES OF VIABLE TRANSITIONS Three examples from each of the similarity score range categories are provided to demonstrate how this information can be applied to assist job seekers in finding new and better occupations and to assist employers in accessing a deeper, more diverse pool of talent.

These profiles provide concrete examples of occupational transitions that require a change in occupational family and the opportunity for significant wage gains. All three examples show that there is a sizeable foundation of overlapping skills, regardless of the similarity score, though the first example (Figure 15) shows a closer alignment in the skills portfolios and fewer skills gaps. The second profile (Figure 16) provides an example of occupations with well-aligned skills portfolio, but the transition would require an additional postsecondary certificate. The third profile (Figure 17) is an example of occupations that share a strong foundation of baseline skills, but the transition would require onthe-job training to acquire the specialized quality assurance and manufacturing-specific skills.

In summary, workers who are able to utilize their existing base of skills and apply it to a new occupation in a different occupation family have the potential to realize significant wage gains. Many of the potential transitions that involve changing occupational families do not require an additional education credential but will likely require on-the-job training. To actualize these transitions, however, job seekers will need to understand their own skillsets and how they are transferable to these new roles, and employers will need to recognize which skills are critical and how they can be acquired in other occupational settings.

To explore the viable transitions and transferable skills between impacted occupations and opportunity occupations a complete list of the 190 viable transitions can be found in Appendix B. Viable Career Transitions.

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IMPACTED OCCUPATION

OPPORTUNITY OCCUPATION

OCCUPATION TITLE

Landscaping & Groundskeeping Worker

Maintenance & Repair Worker, General*

OCCUPATION FAMILY

Building and Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance

Installation, Maintenance, & Repair

$27,100

$35,800

EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (2014–2019)

+10%

+13.8%

UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE (FEB 2020–DEC 2020)

+2%

+2%

MEDIAN ANNUAL WAGE

OPENINGS (2021–2026) SHARED BASELINE SKILLS

ADDITIONAL BASELINE SKILLS NEEDED SHARED SPECIALIZED SKILLS

ADDITIONAL SPECIALIZED SKILLS NEEDED

8,993

• Preventive Maintenance • Physical Abilities • Communication Skills • Troubleshooting • Organizational Skills • Detail-Oriented • Teamwork/Collaboration • English • Problem-Solving • Computer Literacy • Repair • Cleaning • Hand Tools • Painting • Lifting Ability • Customer Service • Power Tools • Plumbing • Heating, Ventilation, & Air Conditioning (HVAC) • Carpentry • Predictive/Preventative Maintenance • Scheduling • Drywall • Occupational Health & Safety • Personal Protective Equipment (PPE)

E V A L U A T I N G O C C U P A T I O N A L S I M I L A R I T Y , T R A N S F E R A B L E S K I L L S , A N D C A R EI ENRT T R ROADNUS C I TTI O I ONN S

Figure 15. EXAMPLE 1: HIGH SIMILARITY SCORE TRANSITION: LANDSCAPING & GROUNDSKEEPING WORKER TO MAINTENANCE & REPAIR WORKER* Similarity Score: 0.70

* Selected as a target occupation by employers in the pilot project. (See page 32.)

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E V A L U A T I N G O C C U P A T I O N A L S I M I L A R I T Y , T R A N S F E R A B L E S K I L L S , A N D C A R EI ENRT T R ROADNUS C I TTI O I ONN S

Figure 16. EXAMPLE 2: MEDIUM SIMILARITY SCORE TRANSITION: NURSING ASSISTANT TO EMERGENCY MEDICAL TECHNICIAN Similarity Score: 0.58

IMPACTED OCCUPATION

OPPORTUNITY OCCUPATION

Nursing Assistant

Emergency Medical Technician*

Healthcare Support

Healthcare Practitioners & Technical

$28,400

$35,200

EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (2014–2019)

0%

+16%

UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE (FEB 2020–DEC 2020)

+2%

0%

OCCUPATION TITLE OCCUPATION FAMILY MEDIAN ANNUAL WAGE

OPENINGS (2021–2026) SHARED BASELINE SKILLS

ADDITIONAL BASELINE SKILLS NEEDED

793

• Communication Skills • Physical Abilities • Listening • Organizational Skills • Teamwork/Collaboration • Building Effective Relationships

SHARED SPECIALIZED SKILLS

• Patient Care • Patient Assistance • Patient Transportation and Transfer • Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) • Customer Service • Life Support • Patient Condition Reporting • Medical Terminology • Vital Signs Measurement

ADDITIONAL SPECIALIZED SKILLS NEEDED

• Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) • Emergency Care • Medical Triage • Electrocardiogram (EKG/ECG) • Phlebotomy • Sterile Procedures/Techniques • Repair • Emergency Vehicle Operation • Telemetry • Foley Catheter

* The transition to an emergency medical technician would require the completion of an additional postsecondary certificate program and the passing of a national certification exam.

22

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Similarity Score: 0.37

IMPACTED OCCUPATION

OPPORTUNITY OCCUPATION

Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerk

Inspector, Tester, Sorter, Sampler, and Weigher

Office and Administrative Support

Production

$31,500

$37,700

EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (2014–2019)

+6%

+30%

UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE (FEB 2020–DEC 2020)

+2%

0%

OCCUPATION TITLE OCCUPATION FAMILY MEDIAN ANNUAL WAGE

OPENINGS (2021–2026) SHARED BASELINE SKILLS

ADDITIONAL BASELINE SKILLS NEEDED

SHARED SPECIALIZED SKILLS ADDITIONAL SPECIALIZED SKILLS NEEDED

UPSKILL TAMPA BAY

2,588

• Organizational Skills • Physical Abilities • Detail-Oriented • Communication Skills • Computer Literacy • Microsoft Excel • Microsoft Office • English • Writing • Teamwork/Collaboration • Multitasking • Problem-Solving • Written Communication • Time Management • Data Entry • Scheduling • Quality Assurance and Control • Quality Management • Calipers • Inspection Records • Calibration • Micrometers • Microscope • Personal Protective Equipment (PPE)

E V A L U A T I N G O C C U P A T I O N A L S I M I L A R I T Y , T R A N S F E R A B L E S K I L L S , A N D C A R EI ENRT T R ROADNUS C I TTI O I ONN S

Figure 17. EXAMPLE 3: LOW SIMILARITY SCORE TRANSITION: SHIPPING, RECEIVING, & INVENTORY CLERK TO INSPECTOR, TESTER, SORTER, SAMPLER, & WEIGHER

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5

IMPLEMENTING SKILLS-BASED HIRING

I M P L E M E N T I N G S K I L L S I- N BA TR SE O DD UHCI R TIO NN G

FOR JOB SEEKERS: UNDERSTANDING YOUR SKILLS AND POTENTIAL To fully participate in a skill-based talent marketplace, job seekers will need to better understand what skills they have and what skills they need to secure the career and future that they desire. They will need to think of themselves as a portfolio of skills that can be applied and expanded throughout their career journey. The strategies and resources below can help job seekers make this change.

1. ASSESS SKILLS Job seekers will first need to assess the skills that they’ve acquired through their past experiences— professional, educational, and other. The resources below can help job seekers complete this assessment.

• EmployFlorida has various assessment tools that can help job seekers identify their detailed hard skills, knowledge of tools and technology, and soft/interpersonal skills. These assessments are available on the personalized dashboard once a job seeker signs in to the site.

• SkillsEngine analyzes a job seeker’s résumé or

LinkedIn profile to determine which competencies and skills the job seeker has.

2. IDENTIFY POTENTIAL CAREERS AND SKILLS GAPS Next, the job seeker will need to identify which occupations utilize those skills and identify any skills that will be needed in the new, aspirational occupation or job. The following tools can help identify which occupations are a fit and what the skills gaps are.

• Appendix B. Viable Career Transitions lists

occupations that match each of the impacted occupations.

• EmployFlorida has assessment tools that provide recommendations on careers based on job seekers’ skills and competencies.

• mySkills myFuture provides recommendations of occupations that match job seekers’ skills.

• My Next Move is a career exploration tool that

can help job seekers find which careers they might be interested in.

• Resume Optimizer analyzes a job seeker’s résumé

to identify skills, compares these skills to a job title of a desired position, and lists skills that are relevant or missing from the résumé that are in demand for the chosen job title.

• Jobscan compares a job seeker’s résumé to job

descriptions, highlights missing skills, and suggests résumé improvements.

3. ACQUIRE SKILLS Acquiring the skills needed to secure the desired job can entail a range and combination of options. Some skills can be acquired through short online training programs while others may require the completion of a formal postsecondary program.

• CareerSource offers in-person trainings as well as online training resources.

• Regional technical schools, community

colleges, and universities offer a rich portfolio of courses, both in-person and online.

• Many larger employers offer in-house training

programs for some entry-level occupations as well as apprenticeship programs.

• GCFGlobal has a repository of free online tutorials for everything from basic technology tools (like Microsoft Office) to core skills (such as reading, writing, and math) to workplace skills (such as communication).

• Alison is a free learning platform for education and skills training. It provides career guidance and skills recommendations and trainings for specific jobs.

• Massive open online courses (MOOCs) offer a

comprehensive range of online courses, degrees, and certifications. Some of the most popular MOOCs are listed below.

• Coursera • edX • Udemy 26

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Once job seekers have identified the occupations and careers they are interested in and developed their skills portfolio to align with those careers, they can begin the job search and apply for jobs. To help in this process, the following resources are available.

• CareerSource offers assistance for displaced workers, veterans, youth from low-income and disadvantaged backgrounds, previously incarcerated individuals, and others.

• EmployFlorida provides a variety of online tools to assist Florida residents in their job search.

• Resume Optimizer and Jobscan can be used to

improve the résumé performance in an applicant tracking system by identifying which skills should be featured in the job seeker’s résumé. In essence, these tools help translate a traditional résumé to a skillsbased résumé that aligns with a specific desired job.

These four strategies or steps provide a framework to help job seekers transition to a skills-based talent marketplace. The resources listed are a useful starting point but are, by no means, an exhaustive list of all the tools that are available through CareerSource, local nonprofits, and other organizations that are providing direct assistance to job seekers across the region and the US.

• Big Interview provides interview tips, video lessons, and virtual practice interview tools.

Figure 18. JOB SEEKER RESOURCES

ASSESS Assess skills

IDENTIFY Identify potential careers and skills gaps

ACQUIRE Acquire skills

SEARCH Search for and apply for jobs

EmployFlorida www.employflorida.com

EmployFlorida www.employflorida.com

CareerSource careersourceflorida.com

CareerSource careersourceflorida.com

SkillsEngine builder.skillsengine.com

mySkills myFuture www.myskillsmyfuture.org

Regional technical schools, community colleges, and universities various

EmployFlorida www.employflorida.com

My Next Move www.mynextmove.org Resume Optimizer skills.emsidata.com/resume Jobscan www.jobscan.co

Larger Employers various GCFGlobal edu.gcfglobal.org Alison www.alison.com

I M P L E M E N T I N G S K I L L S I- N BA TR SE O DD UHCI R TIO NN G

4. SEARCH FOR AND APPLY FOR JOBS

Big Interview www.biginterview.com Resume Optimizer skills.emsidata.com/resume Jobscan www.jobscan.co

Coursera www.coursera.org edX www.edX.org Udemy www.udemy.com

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I M P L E M E N T I N G S K I L L S I- N BA TR SE O DD UHCI R TIO NN G

FOR EMPLOYERS: FOCUS ON CRITICAL SKILLS, NOT EXPERIENCE To access a deeper and more diverse talent pool using skills-based hiring, employers will need to identify which skills are critical to the success of their employees and hire for those skills. They will need to examine how they source talent and expand their reach into channels that incorporate workers with transferable skills. Then, they will need to ensure that their hiring process emphasizes and validates skills rather than relying on experience and education. The following steps can assist employers in making this transition.

1. IDENTIFY CRITICAL SKILLS AND COMPETENCIES The first step for employers is identifying which skills and competencies are critical to the success of their employees for a given occupation or job title.

When choosing a place to start, employers should focus on a position that is challenging to fill. Use the tools below to identify required and preferred skills and competencies and write a job description that accurately reflects them.

• Job Posting Generators (generator.skillful.com

or skills.emsidata.com/posting-optimizer) are resources to help identify skills and competencies commonly associated with job titles. These tools can also be used to translate a job posting into a skills-based posting.

• O*NET (www.onetonline.org) has an occupation

quick search feature that can provide detailed information on the knowledge, skills, and abilities needed to perform an occupation.

• Input from employees who work in the

occupation and managers who work with them can help validate and prioritize skills and competencies to identify which are required for a candidate to be successful and which are preferred. Tools such as PAIRIN (www.pairin.com/solutions/business/) help identify these essential skills and provide a professional development platform as well.

28

2. HIRE FOR SKILLS AND POTENTIAL Traditionally, employers rely on experience and educational background as a starting point for their applicant screening process. This approach, however, may filter out candidates who have the essential skills and competencies needed for the job.

Alternatively, targeting workers in occupations with transferable skills, partnering with organizations that work with underrepresented populations, and revising the hiring process to focus on skills can eliminate biases and bring a new group of candidates into the applicant pool. The tools and tips below can help employers transition to this new approach.

• Sourcing from occupations with transferable

skills can help broaden the applicant pool.

Appendix C. Data and Methods lists occupations that match each of the impacted occupations.

O*NET also provides information on related occupations in its occupation quick search.

• An array of local and national nonprofits can

provide wraparound services and support for jobseekers as well as recruiting assistance to ensure a high-quality, diverse candidate pool.

Industry-specific training providers, such as AmSkills, Per Scholas, and BankWork$, recruit, train, and support candidates who are often from underrepresented groups. CareerSource, Goodwill Industries, and United Way Suncoast’s network of community partners are also good resources.

• Screen, interview, and assess candidates using tools that validate skills and competencies rather than relying on experience, education, or other background topics. Such tools include a more skills-oriented screening process, behavioral questions, and formal assessments. Do not eliminate a candidate for reasons related to education, experience, or résumé gaps unless absolutely necessary.

UPSKILL TAMPA BAY

Intermediaries who work with both job seekers and employers can be catalysts for the transition to a skills-based talent marketplace. Intermediaries can offer active assistance and support to job seekers— helping them understand their skills portfolios— and to employers—helping them use a different approach to sourcing talent that emphasizes skills. In the Tampa Bay region, intermediaries include three CareerSources, community-based organizations that provide employment and workforce services, and other organizations that serve as connection points between job seekers and employers. The strategies below can guide intermediaries’ efforts.

2. DEDICATE RESOURCES FOR DEEP OUTREACH AND ASSISTANCE

1. FOSTER A CULTURE OF SKILLS

• Commit time and staff to support employers in

Through their direct work with both job seekers and employers, intermediaries are in the position to change their local labor markets to be more skillsbased. This can happen through outreach, technical assistance, and support that ultimately transform the conversations around jobs to center around skills and competencies. Below are the first steps to building this culture of skills in the labor market.

• Encourage the use of skills to connect job seekers and employers more efficiently by advising and supporting both job seekers and employers to transition to a skills-based talent marketplace.

• Offer skills-based hiring workshops to human resource professionals and hiring managers.

A partnership with HR Tampa could be a way to extend the reach of workshops. Example: in Colorado, the Markle Foundation Skillful Talent workshops are offered for professional development credit for Society for Human Resource Management certification.

• Create a pathfinder group of employers who

The transition to a skills-based talent market takes time and on-going support, often at a one-to-one level. This requires resources and longevity of the commitment. Below are two strategies to advance this transition.

• Train a corps of career coaches to assist job

seekers in recognizing and promoting their skills, but beware of how applicant tracking systems can act as screens for skills-based résumés.

adopting skills-based hiring. Dedicated staff can act as guides by providing technical assistance and actively helping the pathfinders and other employers in implementing these practices.

I M P L E M E N T I N G S K I L L S I- N BA TR SE O DD UHCI R TIO NN G

FOR INTERMEDIARIES: REACH BEYOND THE WORKSHOP

3. FOLLOW-UP AND SHARE SUCCESSES Documenting results not only demonstrates the effectiveness of these efforts but also can help tell the story in order to build more momentum behind the initiative. The following two strategies can help to accomplish this.

• Follow-up with employers and pathfinders to

keep them on track, collect key data points, and document success stories to help build momentum around the movement. Key data points could include measures such as the number and diversity of applicants, cost of hiring, and time to fill open positions.

• Build a community of practice for employers/

pathfinders to share experiences and troubleshoot together.

will model what it means to adopt skills-based hiring and will serve as champions among the local employer community.

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29

INTRODUCTION

30

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6

UPSKILL TAMPA BAY: PUTTING IT INTO PRACTICE

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31

UPSKILL TAMPA BAY: PUTTING IT INTR O OPDRUACCTTI IOC N E

To assist employers in implementing and refining these practices, Tampa Bay Works launched a pilot program working with nine employers as well as three participants in the already-established manufacturing collaborative. In all, these employers represent three sectors: financial services, healthcare, and manufacturing/facilities. (See Figure 19.)

The employers selected high-demand and hardto-fill positions to target for the project. Many of these targeted positions represent entry points, or gateways, into occupations that lead to high-

opportunity careers. Others are occupations that are intermediate steps past the gateways along the high-opportunity career paths. For each of the three sectors, a profile is presented that includes potentials paths into and out of one of the gateway occupations as well as a detailed profile of the gateway occupation. These profiles can be used to learn about the opportunity associated with the gateway occupation; understand the skills required; locate local training programs, if applicable; and identify impacted occupations that have the most similar skills portfolios. (See pages 34 to 42.)

Figure 19. PARTICIPATING EMPLOYERS EMPLOYER

POSITIONS

FINANCIAL SERVICES Fifth Third Bank PNC Bank Regions Bank USAA

• Personal Banker Associates • Branch Banker Associates (Regional) • Branch Bankers • Financial Relationship Specialists • Insurance Sales and Service Representatives • Insurance Adjusters

HEALTHCARE BayCare Hospital System

Moffitt Cancer Center

• Medical Assistants • Medical Office Representatives • Patient Care Technicians • Transporters • Environmental Services Technicians • Food Services Cooks • Medical Technologists • Hospital Pharmacy Technicians • Sterile Processing Technicians • Oncology Technicians

MANUFACTURING/FACILITIES Lockheed Martin NDH Medical University of South Florida

Tampa Bay Works Manufacturing Collaborative TSE Industries, Southern Manufacturing Technologies, and Power Kleen

32

• Senior Assemblers • Assembler Specialists • Plastic Processing Technicians • Medical Device Technicians • Facilities Maintenance Technicians • Custodial Superintendents • Custodial Workers • Quality Control Inspectors • Computer Numeric Controlled (CNC) Machinists • Industrial Maintenance Technicians

UPSKILL TAMPA BAY

UPSKILL TAMPA BAY

Tampa Bay Works implemented an outreach plan to drive job seekers to the UpSkill Tampa Bay landing page and to encourage them to complete job fit assessments for the positions they are interested in. CareerSource and the United Way network of community-based organizations were key partners in reaching job seekers. These outreach efforts were accompanied by a media campaign, which included social media.

At the time of publication, the pilot is still underway and outreach to job seekers has just begun, thus, results of the pilot cannot be reported at this time.

UPSKILL TAMPA BAY: PUTTING IT INTR O OPDRUACCTTI IOC N E

As part of the pilot, Tampa Bay Works assisted these employers in creating a skills-based job fit assessment that removed unnecessary education and/or experience requirements as well as any potential biases. These job fit assessments were posted on the UpSkill Tampa Bay landing page (tampabayworks.org/upskill-tampa-bay) where job seekers can fill them out. Once a job seeker submits a job fit assessment, Tampa Bay Works reviews the responses and forwards them to the appropriate employer. Employers can then decide whether to invite the candidate to formally apply for the position and proceed with the application process.

33

BANKING SERVICES

GENERAL MANAGEMENT

LOAN INTERVIEWER $43,900 Openings (2021-2026): 1,241

SUPERVISOR $54,400 Openings (2021-2026): 9,983

KEY SKILLS • Customer Service • Communication Skills • Computer Literacy • Multitasking • Customer Contact

CUSTOMER SERVICE REPRESENTATIVE $32,800 Openings (2021-2026): 35,867

JOB TITLE EXAMPLES • Personal Banker Associate • Branch Banker • Financial Relationship Specialist

PARKING ATTENDANT $20,800

RECEPTIONIST & INFORMATION CLERK $28,000

RETAIL SALESPERSON $23,800





INTERMEDIATEADVANCED

GENERAL & OPERATIONS MANAGER $92,400 Openings (2021-2026): 12,152

INTERMEDIATE



ADVANCED

HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGER $107,600 Openings (2021-2026): 710



IMPACTED OCCUPATIONS

EDUCATION/EXPERIENCE    Entry level (may require certification)    Less than Associate degree and/or some exp.

34

OPERATIONS

LOAN OFFICER $62,200 Openings (2021-2026): 1,989

OPPORTUNITY OCCUPATION

UPSKILL TAMPA BAY: PUTTING IT INTR O OPDRUACCTTI IOC N E

PATHWAY: FINANCIAL SERVICES

HUMAN RESOURCE SPECIALIST $57,300 Openings (2021-2026): 4,441

   Associate’s or bachelor’s degree and/or moderate exp.    Advanced Degree and/or significant experience

UPSKILL TAMPA BAY

SNAPSHOT

48,933 2021 Jobs

SKILLS

35,867

Estimated Openings (2021-2026)

$33,614

Median Annual Earnings

ABOUT THE JOB JOB DESCRIPTION Interact with customers to provide basic or scripted information in response to routine inquiries about products and services. May handle and resolve general complaints. Excludes individuals whose duties are primarily installation, sales, repair, and technical support.

ASSOCIATED JOB TITLES Account Representative, Call Center Representative, Client Services Representative, Customer Care Representative (CCR), Customer Service Agent, Customer Service Representative (Customer Service Rep), Customer Service Specialist, Financial Relationship Specialist, Member Services Representative, Personal Banker Associate, Branch Banker, Sales Facilitator

BASELINE SKILLS • Communication Skills • Computer Literacy • Multitasking • Organizational Skills • Detail-Oriented • Problem-Solving • Microsoft Office • English • Teamwork/Collaboration • Microsoft Excel • Telephone Skills • Listening • Bilingual • Written Communication • Writing • Typing • Physical Abilities SPECIALIZED SKILLS • Customer Service • Customer Contact • Scheduling • Sales • Appointment Setting • Cleaning • Data Entry • Customer Billing

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OPPORTUNITY: CUSTOMER SERVICE REPRESENTATIVE

EDUCATION AND TRAINING EDUCATION REQUIRED FOR ENTRY High school diploma or equivalent plus on-the-job training.

TRAINING AVAILABLE IN THE REGION • Tampa Vocational Institute • St. Petersburg College • Employer-provided in-house training Many employers have their own training program that individuals take once they are hired at the company.

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35

PARKING ATTENDANTS

Similarity Score: 0.62

RETAIL SALESPERSONS Similarity Score: 0.61

TRANSFERABLE SKILLS

Similarity Score 0.76

RECEPTIONISTS & INFORMATION CLERKS

• Communication Skills • Organizational Skills • Detail-Oriented • English • Teamwork/Collaboration • Telephone Skills • Physical Abilities • Customer Service • Customer Contact • Scheduling • Sales • Cleaning

• Communication Skills • Computer Literacy • Multitasking • Organizational Skills • Detail-Oriented • Microsoft Office • English • Teamwork/Collaboration • Microsoft Excel • Telephone Skills • Bilingual • Typing • Customer Service • Customer Contact • Scheduling • Appointment Setting • Data Entry

• Communication Skills • Computer Literacy • Multitasking • Organizational Skills • English • Teamwork/Collaboration • Telephone Skills • Written Communication • Physical Abilities • Customer Service • Customer Contact • Scheduling • Sales

SKILLS LIKELY NEEDED

UPSKILL TAMPA BAY: PUTTING IT INTR O OPDRUACCTTI IOC N E

IMPACTED OCCUPATIONS WITH TRANSFERABLE SKILLS

• Computer Literacy • Multitasking • Problem-Solving • Microsoft Office • Microsoft Excel • Listening • Bilingual • Written Communication • Writing • Typing • Appointment Setting • Data Entry • Customer Billing

• Problem-Solving • Listening • Written Communication • Writing • Physical Abilities • Sales • Cleaning • Customer Billing

• Detail-Oriented • Problem-Solving • Microsoft Office • Microsoft Excel • Listening • Bilingual • Writing • Typing • Appointment Setting • Cleaning • Data Entry • Customer Billing

Note: Parking attendants and retail salespersons would benefit from a computer skills course that includes the Microsoft Office suite, data entry, and typing.

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IMPACTED OCCUPATIONS



OPPORTUNITY OCCUPATION



INTERMEDIATE



INTERMEDIATEADVANCED



ADVANCED

NURSING/ CLINICAL

DIAGNOSTIC/ THERAPEUTIC

NONCLINICAL ADMINISTRATION

NURSE PRACTITIONER $98,600 Openings (2021-2026): 1,560

$67,800 Openings (2021-2026): 11,764

SURGICAL ASSISTANT** $61,200 Openings (2021-2026): N/A

PATIENT CARE TECHNICIAN $35,963* Openings (2021-2026): N/A

SURGICAL TECHNOLOGIST $45,700 Openings (2021-2026): 778

KEY SKILLS • Communication Skills • Patient Care • Scheduling • Injections • Medical Assistance

MEDICAL ASSISTANT $32,300 Openings (2021-2026): 7,149

RECREATION WORKER $25,400

RECEPTIONIST & INFORMATION CLERK $28,000

REGISTERED NURSE

EDUCATION/EXPERIENCE    Entry level (may require certification)    Less than Associate degree and/or some exp.

GENERAL & OPERATIONS MANAGER $92,400 Openings (2021-2026): 12,152

MEDICAL SECRETARY & ADMIN. ASSISTANT $34,700 Openings (2021-2026): 4,190

UPSKILL TAMPA BAY: PUTTING IT INTR O OPDRUACCTTI IOC N E

PATHWAY: HEALTHCARE

NURSING ASSISTANT $28,400

   Associate’s or bachelor’s degree and/or moderate exp.    Advanced Degree and/or significant experience

* Salary information from Emsi job posting analytics. ** Information for occupation title: Health Information Technologists, Medical Registrars, Surgical Assistants, and Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Workers, All Other.

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UPSKILL TAMPA BAY: PUTTING IT INTR O OPDRUACCTTI IOC N E

OPPORTUNITY: MEDICAL ASSISTANT SNAPSHOT

9,151

2021 Jobs

SKILLS

7,149

Estimated Openings (2021-2026)

$32,300

Median Annual Earnings

ABOUT THE JOB JOB DESCRIPTION Perform administrative and certain clinical duties under the direction of a physician. Administrative duties may include scheduling appointments, maintaining medical records, billing, and coding information for insurance purposes. Clinical duties may include taking and recording vital signs and medical histories, preparing patients for examination, drawing blood, and administering medications as directed by physician.

ASSOCIATED JOB TITLES Certified Medical Assistant (CMA), Clinical Assistant, Doctor's Assistant, Medical Assistant (MA), Medical Office Assistant, Registered Medical Assistant (RMA)

BASELINE SKILLS • Communication Skills • Computer Literacy • Telephone Skills • Organizational Skills • Teamwork/Collaboration • Multitasking • Detail-Oriented • English • Spanish SPECIALIZED SKILLS • Patient Care • Scheduling • Injections • Medical Assistance • Vital Signs Measurement • Electronic Medical Records • Electrocardiogram (EKG/ECG) • Phlebotomy • Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) • Customer Service • Appointment Setting • Patient/Family Education and Instruction • Front Office • Patient Preparation • Administrative Functions • Medical Terminology • Patient Flow

EDUCATION AND TRAINING EDUCATION REQUIRED FOR ENTRY Postsecondary nondegree award TRAINING AVAILABLE IN THE REGION • Aguilas International Technical Institute • Altierus Career College • ATA Career Education • Concorde • Erwin Technical College • Hillsborough Community College • Metropolitan Technical Career Institute • Pasco-Hernando State College • Rasmussen • Southern Technical College • Ultimate Medical Academy

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RECREATION WORKERS

NURSING ASSISTANTS Similarity Score: 0.40

TRANSFERABLE SKILLS

Similarity Score: 0.40

• Communication Skills • Computer Literacy • Organizational Skills • Teamwork/Collaboration • Multitasking • English • Scheduling • Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) • Customer Service

• Communication Skills • Computer Literacy • Telephone Skills • Organizational Skills • Teamwork/Collaboration • Multitasking • Detail-Oriented • English • Scheduling • Customer Service • Appointment Setting

• Communication Skills • Computer Literacy • Organizational Skills • Patient Care • Vital Signs Measurement • Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) • Customer Service • Medical Terminology

SKILLS LIKELY NEEDED

Similarity Score 0.42

RECEPTIONISTS & INFORMATION CLERKS

• Telephone Skills • Detail-Oriented • Spanish • Patient Care • Injections • Medical Assistance • Vital Signs Measurement • Electronic Medical Records • Electrocardiogram (EKG/ECG) • Phlebotomy • Appointment Setting • Patient/Family Edu. & Instruction • Front Office • Patient Preparation • Administrative Functions • Medical Terminology • Patient Flow

• Spanish • Patient Care • Injections • Medical Assistance • Vital Signs Measurement • Electronic Medical Records • Electrocardiogram (EKG/ECG) • Phlebotomy • Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) • Patient/Family Edu. & Instruction • Front Office • Patient Preparation • Administrative Functions • Medical Terminology • Patient Flow

• Telephone Skills • Teamwork/Collaboration • Multitasking • Detail-Oriented • English • Spanish • Scheduling • Injections • Medical Assistance • Electronic Medical Records • Electrocardiogram (EKG/ECG) • Phlebotomy • Appointment Setting • Patient/Family Edu. & Instruction • Front Office • Patient Preparation • Administrative Functions • Patient Flow

UPSKILL TAMPA BAY: PUTTING IT INTR O OPDRUACCTTI IOC N E

IMPACTED OCCUPATIONS WITH TRANSFERABLE SKILLS

Note: These workers will need to complete a medical assistant program to gain the specialized skills. Some healthcare providers offer these training course to new hires, but programs are widely available. (See Education and Training, page 38.)

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QUALITY ASSURANCE

INDUSTRIAL ENGINEER

CNC TOOL PROGRAMMER $45,800 Openings (2021-2026): 97

CNC TOOL OPERATOR $40,200 Openings (2021-2026): 400

INSPECT., TEST., SORTER, SAMPLER, & WEIGHER $37,700 Openings (2021-2026): 2,588

KEY SKILLS • Physical Abilities • Attention to Detail • Computer Literacy • Hand Tools • Communication Skills

ASSEMBLER & FABRICATOR $31,200* Openings (2021-2026): 4,389

PACKER & PACKAGER, HAND $21,800

DISHWASHER $21,200





INTERMEDIATEADVANCED

$79,700 Openings (2021-2026): 986



IMPACTED OCCUPATIONS

MAINTENANCE, INSTALLATION, & REPAIR

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION MANAGER $97,000 Openings (2021-2026): 465

INTERMEDIATE



ADVANCED

PRODUCTION

OPPORTUNITY OCCUPATION

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PATHWAY: MANUFACTURING

INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY MECHANIC $49,600 Openings (2021-2026): 1,460

EDUCATION/EXPERIENCE    Entry level (may require certification)    Less than Associate degree and/or some exp.

MAINTENANCE WORKER, MACHINERY $36,000 Openings (2021-2026): 161

JOB TITLE EXAMPLES • Machine Operator • Production Assembler • Production Technician • Manufacturing Associate • Assembly Technician

CASHIER $22,100

   Associate’s or bachelor’s degree and/or moderate exp.    Advanced Degree and/or significant experience

* Salary based on input from employers in manufacturing collaborative.

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SNAPSHOT

7,905

2021 Jobs

SKILLS

4,389

Estimated Openings (2021-2026)

$31,200*

Median Annual Earnings

ABOUT THE JOB JOB DESCRIPTION Work as part of a team having responsibility for assembling an entire product or component of a product. Team assemblers can perform all tasks conducted by the team in the assembly process and rotate through all or most of them, rather than being assigned to a specific task on a permanent basis. May participate in making management decisions affecting the work. Includes team leaders who work as part of the team.

ASSOCIATED JOB TITLES Assembler, Assembly Associate, Assembly Line Machine Operator, Assembly Line Worker, Assembly Operator, Assembly Technician, Certified Composites Technician (CCT), Manufacturing Associate, Production Assembler, Production Line Worker, Production Technician, Team Assembler

BASELINE SKILLS • Physical Abilities • Detail-Oriented • Computer Literacy • Communication Skills • Organizational Skills • English • Teamwork/Collaboration • Work Area Maintenance • Troubleshooting • Creativity SPECIALIZED SKILLS • Hand Tools • Repair • Soldering • Packaging • Cleaning • Power Tools • Wiring • Machinery • Microscope • Lifting Ability • Scheduling • Schematic Diagrams • Lean Manufacturing • Product Inspection • Manual Dexterity

UPSKILL TAMPA BAY: PUTTING IT INTR O OPDRUACCTTI IOC N E

OPPORTUNITY: ASSEMBLER/ FABRICATORS

EDUCATION AND TRAINING EDUCATION REQUIRED FOR ENTRY High school diploma or equivalent plus on-the-job training TRAINING AVAILABLE IN THE REGION • AmSkills Manufacturing Training and Apprenticeships • MSSC Certified Production Technician, St. Petersburg College • MSSC Certified Production Technician, Hillsborough Community College

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41

PACKERS & PACKAGERS, HAND

DISHWASHERS

Similarity Score: 0.40

CASHIERS

Similarity Score: 0.40

TRANSFERABLE SKILLS

Similarity Score 0.42

• Physical Abilities • Detail-Oriented • Computer Literacy • Communication Skills • Organizational Skills • English • Teamwork/Collaboration • Work Area Maintenance • Hand Tools • Packaging • Cleaning • Machinery • Lifting Ability

• Physical Abilities • Detail-Oriented • Communication Skills • Organizational Skills • English • Teamwork/Collaboration • Work Area Maintenance • Cleaning • Lifting Ability • Scheduling

• Physical Abilities • Detail-Oriented • Communication Skills • Organizational Skills • English • Teamwork/Collaboration • Work Area Maintenance • Cleaning • Lifting Ability • Scheduling

SKILLS LIKELY NEEDED

UPSKILL TAMPA BAY: PUTTING IT INTR O OPDRUACCTTI IOC N E

42

IMPACTED OCCUPATIONS WITH TRANSFERABLE SKILLS

• Troubleshooting • Creativity • Repair • Soldering • Power Tools • Wiring • Microscope • Scheduling • Schematic Diagrams • Lean Manufacturing • Product Inspection • Manual Dexterity

• Computer Literacy • Troubleshooting • Creativity • Hand Tools • Repair • Soldering • Packaging • Power Tools • Wiring • Machinery • Microscope • Schematic Diagrams • Lean Manufacturing • Product Inspection • Manual Dexterity

• Computer Literacy • English • Troubleshooting • Creativity • Hand Tools • Repair • Soldering • Packaging • Power Tools • Wiring • Machinery • Microscope • Lifting Ability • Schematic Diagrams • Lean Manufacturing • Product Inspection • Manual Dexterity

UPSKILL TAMPA BAY

A

APPENDIX A. SELECT IMPACTED AND OPPORTUNITY OCCUPATIONS

Appendix UPSKILL TAMPA BAY

43

SELECT IMPACTED AND OPPORTUNITY OCCUPATIONS

Figure 20. SELECT IMPACTED OCCUPATIONS WEAK GROWTH PRE-COVID AND HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT DURING COVID SOC Code Description Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 37-1012 1st-Line Supervs. of Landsc., Lawn Service, & Grounds. Workers 37-3011 Landscaping & Groundskeeping Workers Educational Instruction and Library 25-2011 Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education 25-9045 Teaching Assistants, Except Postsecondary Food Preparation and Serving Related 35-2011 Cooks, Fast Food 35-2012 Cooks, Institution & Cafeteria 35-9021 Dishwashers 35-2021 Food Preparation Workers Healthcare Support 31-1128 Home Health Aides 31-1131 Nursing Assistants Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 49-2022 Telecom. Equip. Installers & Repairers, Except Line Installers Management 11-9013 Farmers, Ranchers, & Other Agricultural Managers Office and Administrative Support 43-3011 Bill & Account Collectors 43-3021 Billing & Posting Clerks 43-3031 Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 43-9021 Data Entry Keyers 43-6011 Executive Secretaries & Executive Administrative Assistants 43-4111 Interviewers, Except Eligibility & Loan 43-6012 Legal Secretaries & Administrative Assistants 43-4131 Loan Interviewers & Clerks 43-9199 Office & Administrative Support Workers, All Other 43-4151 Order Clerks 43-5052 Postal Service Mail Carriers 43-4171 Receptionists & Information Clerks 43-5071 Shipping, Receiving, & Inventory Clerks 43-3071 Tellers Personal Care and Service 39-9011 Childcare Workers 39-9031 Exercise Trainers & Group Fitness Instructors 39-9032 Recreation Workers Production 51-6011 Laundry & Dry-Cleaning Workers Protective Service 33-3012 Correctional Officers & Jailers 33-3051 Police & Sheriff’s Patrol Officers Sales and Related 41-2011 Cashiers* 41-1012 First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers 41-1011 First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 41-2031 Retail Salespersons* Transportation and Material Moving 53-7064 Packers & Packagers, Hand 53-6021 Parking Attendants

Employment 2019

Employment % Change (2014-2019)

Unemployment % Change (Feb-Dec 2020)

2019 Median Wage

1,757 12,903

-5.6% +10.0%

+2.0% +2.0%

$35,900 $27,100

101.3 129.1

5,001 8,561

+8.6% +2.0%

+2.0% +1.0%

$24,800 $26,500

81.5 89.7

3,736 3,281 5,460 9,024

+6.3% +3.7% +6.1% +7.0%

+7.0% +7.0% +10.0% +7.0%

$21,500 $27,600 $21,200 $23,700

134.1 108.3 136.4 129.1

4,894 14,732

-17.5% -0.1%

+2.0% +2.0%

$22,700 $28,400

93.6 97.0

3,240

+9.3%

+2.0%

$48,300

105.1

2,596

-24.2%

+1.0%

$57,200

93.5

3,323 5,189 16,369 1,896 4,916 2,179 1,849 2,391 1,755 1,538 3,270 12,240 5,265 6,013

-19.0% +6.1% +2.6% -17.5% -34.3% +5.2% -21.5% -7.7% -0.4% -21.0% +3.1% +8.1% +6.3% +4.7%

+2.0% +2.0% +1.0% +1.0% +2.0% +2.0% +2.0% +2.0% +1.0% +2.0% +1.0% +2.0% +2.0% +1.0%

$36,000 $37,100 $38,600 $30,600 $52,400 $30,400 $43,400 $43,900 $38,700 $30,500 $52,100 $28,000 $31,500 $36,700

98.6 98.5 103.6 103.5 92.4 93.6 98.2 97.3 87.6 97.4 112.5 94.2 109.1 102.3

7,638 3,207 3,235

+3.7% +8.9% +9.4%

+7.0% +11.0% +7.0%

$22,300 $33,800 $25,400

88.0 84.4 88.0

2,073

-0.7%

+1.0%

$23,100

113.2

2,706 4,850

+7.7% +6.1%

+1.0% +1.0%

$43,900 $59,800

90.5 94.5

32,695 4,399 14,973 43,357

+4.6% -1.1% +5.5% +6.5%

+0.0% +1.0% +1.0% +0.0%

$22,100 $76,200 $42,700 $23,800

105.5 81.4 87.8 93.4

4,962 2,044

-0.9% +7.3%

+2.0% +3.0%

$21,800 $20,800

123.1 107.3

Automation Index

Source: JobsEQ, Emsi.

Notes: Includes only those occupations that represent 0.01 percent of the regional employment base and require an associate’s degree or less. The median wage is highlighted when it falls below the living wage of $34,487. The Automation Index is highlighted when it is above 100, signaling an occupation relatively more likely to be affected by automation and potentially less stable.

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SOC Code

Description

Architecture & Engineering Occupations 17-3098 Calibration Technols. & Techs. & Engineer. Technols. & Techs., Ex. Drafters, All Other 17-3026 Indust. Engineering Technologists & Technicians Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance 37-2021 Pest Control Workers Computer & Mathematical Occupations 15-1231 Computer Network Support Specialists 15-1232 Computer User Support Specialists 15-1257 Web Developers & Digital Interface Designers Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Occupations 29-2031 Cardiovascular Technologists & Technicians 29-1292 Dental Hygienists 29-2032 Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 29-2042 Emergency Medical Technicians 29-2035 Magnetic Resonance Imaging Technologists 29-2098 Medical Dosimetrists, Med. Records Specialists, & Health Technols. & Techs., All Other 29-2057 Ophthalmic Medical Technicians 29-2043 Paramedics 29-2034 Radiologic Technologists & Technicians 29-1126 Respiratory Therapists 29-2055 Surgical Technologists Legal Occupations 23-2011 Paralegals & Legal Assistants Life, Physical, & Social Science Occupations 19-4031 Chemical Technicians 19-4099 Life, Physical, & Social Science Technicians, All Other Management Occupations 11-9051 Food Service Managers 11-9141 Property, Real Estate, & Community Association Managers Office & Administrative Support Occupations 43-4061 Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs 43-3099 Financial Clerks, All Other 43-1011 First-Line Supervisors of Office & Administrative Support Workers 43-9041 Insurance Claims & Policy Processing Clerks 43-5061 Production, Planning, & Expediting Clerks Personal Care & Service Occupations 39-4031 Morticians, Undertakers, & Funeral Arrangers Production Occupations 51-7011 Cabinetmakers & Bench Carpenters 51-9011 Chemical Equipment Operators & Tenders 51-9161 Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators 51-9061 Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, & Weighers 51-4193 Plating Machine Setters, Operators, & Tenders, Metal & Plastic 51-8013 Power Plant Operators 51-4121 Welders, Cutters, Solderers, & Brazers 51-7042 Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, & Tenders, Except Sawing Protective Service Occupations 33-1099 First-Line Supervisors of Protective Service Workers, All Other 33-9093 Transportation Security Screeners 33-1091 First-Line Supervisors of Security Workers Sales & Related Occupations 41-3021 Insurance Sales Agents 41-9022 Real Estate Sales Agents 41-3091 Sales Reps. of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Serv., & Travel Transportation & Material Moving Occupations 53-6041 Traffic Technicians

Employment Unemployment 2019 Employment % Change % Change Openings Median 2019 (2014-2019) (Feb-Dec 2020) (2021-2026) Wage

Automation Index

418 392

10% 19%

1% 1%

275 163

$54,900 $54,900

92.1 94.0

1,585

34%

1%

1,343

$47,100

107.2

1,726 6,800 1,574

23% 28% 46%

0% 0% 0%

710 4,112 825

$80,900 $48,100 $72,500

86.9 82.9 88.4

714 1,882 827 1,290 467 3,549 596 862 2,206 1,367 1,134

18% 21% 29% 16% 26% 22% 62% 17% 15% 22% 17%

0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

309 999 335 793 233 2,087 706 793 815 588 778

$55,600 $76,600 $69,700 $35,200 $65,500 $38,700 $37,400 $35,200 $60,400 $60,300 $45,700

91.7 96.8 93.3 83.7 92.8 92.1 91.4 83.7 94.1 93.2 89.0

4,595

13%

1%

4,225

$44,700

89.4

411 409

21% 23%

0% -1%

200 294

$46,200 $52,700

104.6 86.8

3,983 4,503

17% 33%

1% 1%

2,522 1,963

$47,700 $53,200

104.4 83.8

370 372 16,964 3,726 2,739

11% 17% 12% 23% 28%

1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

500 248 9,983 2,374 1,946

$41,200 $38,600 $54,400 $36,500 $44,200

99.4 98.5 91.8 100.2 94.0

233

36%

0%

249

$50,500

99.6

740 166 658 3,265 167 359 2,468 352

23% 37% 15% 30% 25% 22% 21% 33%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

268 214 400 2,588 120 100 1,692 242

$37,000 $51,000 $40,200 $37,700 $35,300 $82,100 $40,200 $36,700

124.3 110.4 116.0 106.1 122.0 108.8 121.4 119.0

73 570 637

33% 15% 29%

0% 0% 0%

375 443 375

$48,100 $38,700 $48,100

90.3 96.7 90.3

7,161 4,665 11,580

38% 17% 41%

1% 1% 0%

7,468 3,552 9,590

$46,900 $42,500 $51,800

96.0 91.7 96.7

103

19%

1%

161

$39,500

90.6

SELECT IMPACTED AND OPPORTUNITY OCCUPATIONS

Figure 21. SELECT HIGH OPPORTUNITY OCCUPATIONS STRONG GROWTH PRE-COVID AND STABLE DURING COVID

Source: JobsEQ, Emsi.

Notes: Includes only those occupations that represent 0.01 percent of the regional employment base and require an associate’s degree or less. The median wage is highlighted when it falls below the living wage of $34,487. The Automation Index is highlighted when it is above 100, signaling an occupation relatively more likely to be affected by automation and potentially less stable.

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SELECT IMPACTED AND OPPORTUNITY OCCUPATIONS

Figure 22. DEMOGRAPHICS OF SELECT IMPACTED OCCUPATIONS SOC Code

Description

Males % of Occupation

Females % of Occupation

Total Diversity % of Occupation

Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 37-1012

First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, & Groundskeeping Workers

84.6%

15.4%

31.7%

37-3011

Landscaping & Groundskeeping Workers

87.0%

13.0%

52.5%

Educational Instruction and Library 25-2011

Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education

4.1%

95.9%

45.2%

25-9045

Teaching Assistants, Except Postsecondary

8.9%

91.1%

48.4%

Food Preparation and Serving Related 35-2011

Cooks, Fast Food

67.7%

32.3%

54.8%

35-2012

Cooks, Institution & Cafeteria

40.4%

59.6%

60.7%

35-9021

Dishwashers

80.8%

19.2%

53.5%

35-2021

Food Preparation Workers

43.5%

56.5%

44.9%

Healthcare Support 31-1128

Home Health Aides

15.4%

84.6%

59.8%

31-1131

Nursing Assistants

13.0%

87.0%

63.3%

89.3%

10.7%

37.5%

73.1%

26.9%

22.7%

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 49-2022

Telecommunications Equipment Installers & Repairers, Except Line Installers

Management 11-9013

Farmers, Ranchers, & Other Agricultural Managers

Office and Administrative Support 43-3011

Bill & Account Collectors

29.4%

70.6%

52.1%

43-3021

Billing & Posting Clerks

10.4%

89.6%

39.6%

43-3031

Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks

11.7%

88.3%

28.4%

43-9021

Data Entry Keyers

19.9%

80.1%

42.9%

43-6011

Executive Secretaries & Executive Administrative Assistants

4.2%

95.8%

31.2%

43-4111

Interviewers, Except Eligibility & Loan

19.0%

81.0%

45.2%

43-6012

Legal Secretaries & Administrative Assistants

4.0%

96.0%

27.6%

43-4131

Loan Interviewers & Clerks

19.4%

80.6%

41.9%

43-9199

Office & Administrative Support Workers, All Other

23.9%

76.1%

42.0%

43-4151

Order Clerks

37.1%

62.9%

39.7%

43-5052

Postal Service Mail Carriers

64.4%

35.6%

57.1%

43-4171

Receptionists & Information Clerks

7.9%

92.1%

39.8%

43-5071

Shipping, Receiving, & Inventory Clerks

68.4%

31.6%

48.4%

43-3071

Tellers

14.0%

86.0%

52.1%

Personal Care and Service 39-9011

Childcare Workers

6.7%

93.3%

52.8%

39-9031

Exercise Trainers & Group Fitness Instructors

42.4%

57.6%

29.7%

39-9032

Recreation Workers

32.9%

67.1%

36.6%

Laundry & Dry-Cleaning Workers

37.8%

62.2%

64.1%

Production 51-6011

Protective Service 33-3012

Correctional Officers & Jailers

68.5%

31.5%

53.9%

33-3051

Police & Sheriff’s Patrol Officers

84.2%

15.8%

42.0%

Sales and Related 41-2011

Cashiers*

28.1%

71.9%

45.5%

41-1012

First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers

69.2%

30.8%

30.3%

41-1011

First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers

55.7%

44.3%

30.5%

41-2031

Retail Salespersons*

48.5%

51.5%

36.3%

Transportation and Material Moving 53-7064

Packers & Packagers, Hand

38.6%

61.4%

68.8%

53-6021

Parking Attendants

87.8%

12.2%

57.8%

Source: JobsEQ, Emsi.

Note: Highlighted cells are above the regional average.

46

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SOC Code

Description

Architecture & Engineering Occupations 17-3098 Calibration Technologists & Technicians & Engineering Technologists & Technicians, Except Drafters, All Other 17-3026 Industrial Engineering Technologists & Technicians Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance 37-2021 Pest Control Workers Computer & Mathematical Occupations 15-1231 Computer Network Support Specialists 15-1232 Computer User Support Specialists 15-1257 Web Developers & Digital Interface Designers Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Occupations 29-2031 Cardiovascular Technologists & Technicians 29-1292 Dental Hygienists 29-2032 Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 29-2042 Emergency Medical Technicians 29-2035 Magnetic Resonance Imaging Technologists 29-2098 Medical Dosimetrists, Medical Records Specialists, & Health Technologists & Technicians, All Other 29-2057 Ophthalmic Medical Technicians 29-2043 Paramedics 29-2034 Radiologic Technologists & Technicians 29-1126 Respiratory Therapists 29-2055 Surgical Technologists Legal Occupations 23-2011 Paralegals & Legal Assistants Life, Physical, & Social Science Occupations 19-4031 Chemical Technicians 19-4099 Life, Physical, & Social Science Technicians, All Other Management Occupations 11-9051 Food Service Managers 11-9141 Property, Real Estate, & Community Association Managers Office & Administrative Support Occupations 43-4061 Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs 43-3099 Financial Clerks, All Other 43-1011 First-Line Supervisors of Office & Administrative Support Workers 43-9041 Insurance Claims & Policy Processing Clerks 43-5061 Production, Planning, & Expediting Clerks Personal Care & Service Occupations 39-4031 Morticians, Undertakers, & Funeral Arrangers Production Occupations 51-7011 Cabinetmakers & Bench Carpenters 51-9011 Chemical Equipment Operators & Tenders 51-9161 Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators 51-9061 Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, & Weighers 51-4193 Plating Machine Setters, Operators, & Tenders, Metal & Plastic 51-8013 Power Plant Operators 51-4121 Welders, Cutters, Solderers, & Brazers 51-7042 Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, & Tenders, Except Sawing Protective Service Occupations 33-1099 First-Line Supervisors of Protective Service Workers, All Other 33-9093 Transportation Security Screeners 33-1091 First-Line Supervisors of Security Workers Sales & Related Occupations 41-3021 Insurance Sales Agents 41-9022 Real Estate Sales Agents 41-3091 Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, & Travel Transportation & Material Moving Occupations 53-6041 Traffic Technicians

Males % of Females % of Total Diversity Occupation Occupation % of Occupation 82.0% 81.2%

18.0% 18.8%

35.3% 35.0%

88.5%

11.5%

43.6%

71.8% 71.9% 65.2%

28.2% 28.1% 34.8%

37.5% 37.2% 28.3%

32.4% 4.9% 29.4% 58.2% 33.1% 16.6% 24.7% 58.2% 31.0% 37.3% 27.1%

67.6% 95.1% 70.6% 41.8% 66.9% 83.4% 75.3% 41.8% 69.0% 62.7% 72.9%

32.9% 22.1% 31.1% 32.8% 32.1% 43.9% 40.9% 32.8% 31.6% 36.4% 44.0%

14.5%

85.5%

29.5%

65.2% 47.5%

34.8% 52.5%

35.5% 37.4%

58.0% 48.5%

42.0% 51.5%

38.7% 30.2%

19.6% 36.3% 33.3% 15.8% 42.8%

80.4% 63.7% 66.7% 84.2% 57.2%

62.5% 40.8% 35.6% 46.0% 32.3%

65.8%

34.2%

22.6%

95.1% 87.3% 92.2% 59.8% 80.3% 92.8% 94.3% 82.6%

4.9% 12.7% 7.8% 40.2% 19.7% 7.2% 5.7% 17.4%

30.2% 35.7% 26.6% 42.7% 48.2% 20.9% 39.5% 40.5%

76.5% 70.0% 76.5%

23.5% 30.0% 23.5%

40.0% 67.0% 40.0%

47.0% 42.4% 63.5%

53.0% 57.6% 36.5%

34.6% 29.2% 28.4%

84.2%

15.8%

49.1%

INTRODUCTION

Figure 23. DEMOGRAPHICS OF SELECT OPPORTUNITY OCCUPATIONS

Source: JobsEQ, Emsi.

Note: Highlighted cells are above the regional average.

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B

APPENDIX B. VIABLE CAREER TRANSITIONS

Appendix

VIABLE CAREER I N TT RR AONDSUI C TT IO IO NN S

50

Figure 24. VIABLE CAREER TRANSITIONS BY IMPACTED OCCUPATIONS SIMILARITY SCORE > .33 Impacted Similarity Occupation Opportunity Occupation Score Median Wage Impacted Occupation: Bill and Account Collectors Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs 0.74 $36,000 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 0.73 $36,000 Computer Network Support Specialists 0.49 $36,000 Computer User Support Specialists 0.47 $36,000 Chemical Technicians 0.40 $36,000 Impacted Occupation: Billing and Posting Clerks First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 0.52 $37,100 Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs 0.56 $37,100 Impacted Occupation: Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 0.51 $38,600 Impacted Occupation: Cashiers Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs 0.50 $22,100 Customer Service Representatives 0.60 $22,100 Pest Control Workers 0.65 $22,100 Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks 0.49 $22,100 Ophthalmic Medical Technicians 0.49 $22,100 Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing 0.47 $22,100 Team Assembler / Miscellaneous Fabricators and Assemblers 0.46 $22,100 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 0.44 $22,100 Transportation Security Screeners 0.43 $22,100 Food Service Managers 0.39 $22,100 Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers 0.39 $22,100 Property, Real Estate, and Community Association Managers 0.38 $22,100 Real Estate Sales Agents 0.37 $22,100 Paralegals and Legal Assistants 0.35 $22,100 Industrial Engineering Technologists and Technicians 0.34 $22,100 Chemical Equipment Operators and Tenders 0.34 $22,100 Impacted Occupation: Cooks, Fast Food Customer Service Representatives 0.50 $21,500 Pest Control Workers 0.42 $21,500 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 0.37 $21,500 Transportation Security Screeners 0.37 $21,500 Food Service Managers 0.36 $21,500 Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs 0.33 $21,500 Impacted Occupation: Data Entry Keyers Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks 0.58 $30,600 Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs 0.60 $30,600 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 0.47 $30,600 Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers 0.44 $30,600 Transportation Security Screeners 0.34 $30,600 Impacted Occupation: Dishwashers Team Assembler / Miscellaneous Fabricators and Assemblers 0.50 $21,200 Ophthalmic Medical Technicians 0.45 $21,200 Food Service Managers 0.44 $21,200 Pest Control Workers 0.43 $21,200 Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing 0.43 $21,200

Opportunity Occupation Median Wage

Wage Difference

$41,200 $54,400 $80,900 $48,100 $46,200

14% 51% 125% 34% 28%

$54,400 $41,200

47% 11%

$54,400

41%

$41,200 $32,800 $32,300 $32,300 $32,300 $36,700 $29,400 $54,400 $38,700 $47,700 $37,700 $32,300 $32,300 $32,300 $54,900 $51,000

86% 48% 46% 46% 46% 66% 33% 146% 75% 116% 71% 46% 46% 46% 148% 131%

$32,800 $32,300 $54,400 $38,700 $47,700 $41,200

53% 50% 153% 80% 122% 92%

$36,500 $41,200 $54,400 $37,700 $38,700

19% 35% 78% 23% 26%

$29,400 $32,300 $47,700 $32,300 $36,700

39% 52% 125% 52% 73%

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Opportunity Occupation Median Wage $54,900 $32,300 $32,300 $32,800 $51,000 $35,800

Wage Difference 159% 52% 52% 55% 141% 69%

$80,900

54%

$38,700 $41,200 $54,400 $55,600

14% 22% 61% 64%

$80,900

41%

$41,200 $54,400 $54,900 $47,700

15% 52% 53% 33%

$54,400 $47,700 $80,900

27% 12% 89%

$32,300 $36,700 $29,400 $32,300 $32,800 $47,700 $32,300 $41,200 $54,400 $32,300 $32,300

36% 55% 24% 36% 38% 101% 36% 74% 130% 36% 36%

$41,200 $38,700 $36,500 $54,400 $37,700 $80,900 $48,100

36% 27% 20% 79% 24% 166% 58%

$54,900 $35,800 $40,200 $32,300

103% 32% 48% 19%

VIABLE CAREER I N TT RR AONDSUI C TT IO IO NN S

Impacted Similarity Occupation Opportunity Occupation Score Median Wage Industrial Engineering Technologists and Technicians 0.38 $21,200 Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks 0.38 $21,200 Paralegals and Legal Assistants 0.36 $21,200 Customer Service Representatives 0.35 $21,200 Chemical Equipment Operators and Tenders 0.34 $21,200 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 0.33 $21,200 Impacted Occupation: Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants Computer Network Support Specialists 0.36 $52,400 Impacted Occupation: Exercise Trainers and Group Fitness Instructors Transportation Security Screeners 0.38 $33,800 Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs 0.36 $33,800 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 0.36 $33,800 Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians 0.35 $33,800 Impacted Occupation: Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers Computer Network Support Specialists 0.41 $57,200 Impacted Occupation: First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs 0.50 $35,900 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 0.45 $35,900 Industrial Engineering Technologists and Technicians 0.44 $35,900 Food Service Managers 0.40 $35,900 Impacted Occupation: First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 0.53 $42,700 Food Service Managers 0.45 $42,700 Computer Network Support Specialists 0.37 $42,700 Impacted Occupation: Food Preparation Workers Pest Control Workers 0.49 $23,700 Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing 0.46 $23,700 Team Assembler / Miscellaneous Fabricators and Assemblers 0.45 $23,700 Ophthalmic Medical Technicians 0.45 $23,700 Customer Service Representatives 0.44 $23,700 Food Service Managers 0.44 $23,700 Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks 0.43 $23,700 Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs 0.40 $23,700 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 0.38 $23,700 Paralegals and Legal Assistants 0.38 $23,700 Real Estate Sales Agents 0.35 $23,700 Impacted Occupation: Interviewers, Except Eligibility and Loan Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs 0.68 $30,400 Transportation Security Screeners 0.52 $30,400 Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks 0.57 $30,400 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 0.59 $30,400 Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers 0.49 $30,400 Computer Network Support Specialists 0.45 $30,400 Computer User Support Specialists 0.39 $30,400 Impacted Occupation: Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers Industrial Engineering Technologists and Technicians 0.77 $27,100 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 0.70 $27,100 Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers 0.44 $27,100 Power Plant Operators 0.44 $27,100

51

VIABLE CAREER I N TT RR AONDSUI C TT IO IO NN S

52

Opportunity Occupation Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing Pest Control Workers Impacted Occupation: Laundry and Dry-Cleaning Workers Team Assembler / Miscellaneous Fabricators and Assemblers Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing Impacted Occupation: Legal Secretaries and Administrative Assistants First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers Impacted Occupation: Loan Interviewers and Clerks First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers Computer Network Support Specialists Impacted Occupation: Nursing Assistants Emergency Medical Technicians Magnetic Resonance Imaging Technologists Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians Medical Assistants Radiologic Technologists and Technicians Impacted Occupation: Office and Administrative Support Workers, All Other First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers Computer Network Support Specialists Computer User Support Specialists Industrial Engineering Technologists and Technicians Food Service Managers Chemical Technicians Impacted Occupation: Order Clerks Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers Transportation Security Screeners Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks Computer User Support Specialists Computer Network Support Specialists Traffic Technicians Food Service Managers Industrial Engineering Technologists and Technicians Impacted Occupation: Packers and Packagers, Hand Team Assembler / Miscellaneous Fabricators and Assemblers Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing Pest Control Workers Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers Chemical Equipment Operators and Tenders Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks Ophthalmic Medical Technicians Industrial Engineering Technologists and Technicians Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs Paralegals and Legal Assistants Impacted Occupation: Parking Attendants Customer Service Representatives Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs Transportation Security Screeners

Similarity Score 0.44 0.40

Impacted Occupation Median Wage $27,100 $27,100

Opportunity Occupation Median Wage $36,700 $32,300

Wage Difference 35% 19%

0.38 0.35

$23,100 $23,100

$29,400 $36,700

27% 59%

0.44

$43,400

$54,400

25%

0.58 0.40

$43,900 $43,900

$54,400 $80,900

24% 84%

0.58 0.46 0.42 0.40 0.34

$28,400 $28,400 $28,400 $28,400 $28,400

$35,200 $65,500 $55,600 $32,300 $32,300

24% 131% 96% 14% 14%

0.71 0.52 0.54 0.41 0.38 0.36

$38,700 $38,700 $38,700 $38,700 $38,700 $38,700

$54,400 $80,900 $48,100 $54,900 $47,700 $46,200

41% 109% 24% 42% 23% 19%

0.78 0.68 0.53 0.57 0.64 0.49 0.49 0.40 0.37 0.34

$30,500 $30,500 $30,500 $30,500 $30,500 $30,500 $30,500 $30,500 $30,500 $30,500

$41,200 $54,400 $38,700 $37,700 $36,500 $48,100 $80,900 $39,500 $47,700 $54,900

35% 78% 27% 24% 20% 58% 165% 30% 56% 80%

0.74 0.65 0.49 0.44 0.44 0.41 0.39 0.38 0.34 0.33

$21,800 $21,800 $21,800 $21,800 $21,800 $21,800 $21,800 $21,800 $21,800 $21,800

$29,400 $36,700 $32,300 $37,700 $51,000 $32,300 $32,300 $54,900 $41,200 $32,300

35% 68% 48% 73% 134% 48% 48% 152% 89% 48%

0.76 0.55 0.58

$20,800 $20,800 $20,800

$32,800 $41,200 $38,700

58% 98% 86%

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Impacted Occupation Median Wage $20,800 $20,800 $20,800 $20,800 $20,800 $20,800 $20,800 $20,800 $20,800 $20,800 $20,800 $20,800 $20,800 $20,800 $20,800 $20,800

Opportunity Occupation Median Wage $32,300 $54,400 $32,300 $47,700 $48,100 $39,500 $29,400 $32,300 $32,300 $54,900 $36,500 $32,300 $80,900 $35,800 $32,300 $36,700

Wage Difference 55% 162% 55% 129% 131% 90% 41% 55% 55% 164% 75% 55% 289% 72% 55% 76%

0.51 0.55 0.58 0.62 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.37 0.34

$28,000 $28,000 $28,000 $28,000 $28,000 $28,000 $28,000 $28,000 $28,000 $28,000 $28,000 $28,000 $28,000

$32,300 $32,300 $41,200 $32,800 $54,400 $36,500 $32,300 $32,300 $32,300 $32,300 $38,700 $32,300 $39,500

15% 15% 47% 17% 94% 30% 15% 15% 15% 15% 38% 15% 41%

0.61 0.62 0.50 0.49 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.42 0.42 0.41 0.40 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.34 0.33

$25,400 $25,400 $25,400 $25,400 $25,400 $25,400 $25,400 $25,400 $25,400 $25,400 $25,400 $25,400 $25,400 $25,400 $25,400 $25,400 $25,400

$32,300 $54,400 $32,300 $32,800 $41,200 $32,300 $32,300 $47,700 $80,900 $32,300 $32,300 $38,700 $39,500 $36,500 $37,700 $29,400 $32,300

27% 114% 27% 29% 62% 27% 27% 88% 219% 27% 27% 52% 56% 44% 48% 16% 27%

VIABLE CAREER I N TT RR AONDSUI C TT IO IO NN S

Opportunity Occupation Pest Control Workers First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks Food Service Managers Computer User Support Specialists Traffic Technicians Team Assembler / Miscellaneous Fabricators and Assemblers Ophthalmic Medical Technicians Real Estate Sales Agents Industrial Engineering Technologists and Technicians Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks Property, Real Estate, and Community Association Managers Computer Network Support Specialists Maintenance and Repair Workers, General Medical Assistants Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing Impacted Occupation: Receptionists and Information Clerks Paralegals and Legal Assistants Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs Customer Service Representatives First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks Property, Real Estate, and Community Association Managers Real Estate Sales Agents Medical Assistants Ophthalmic Medical Technicians Transportation Security Screeners Pest Control Workers Traffic Technicians Impacted Occupation: Recreation Workers Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers Property, Real Estate, and Community Association Managers Customer Service Representatives Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs Paralegals and Legal Assistants Real Estate Sales Agents Food Service Managers Computer Network Support Specialists Medical Assistants Ophthalmic Medical Technicians Transportation Security Screeners Traffic Technicians Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers Team Assembler / Miscellaneous Fabricators and Assemblers Pest Control Workers Retail Salespersons

Similarity Score 0.67 0.50 0.48 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35

53

VIABLE CAREER I N TT RR AONDSUI C TT IO IO NN S

Similarity Score 0.53 0.54 0.61 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.37 0.36 0.35 0.34

Impacted Occupation Median Wage $23,800 $23,800 $23,800 $23,800 $23,800 $23,800 $23,800 $23,800 $23,800 $23,800

Opportunity Occupation Median Wage $32,300 $32,300 $32,800 $41,200 $46,900 $54,400 $38,700 $32,300 $32,300 $32,300

Wage Difference 36% 36% 38% 73% 97% 129% 63% 36% 36% 36%

$31,500 $31,500 $31,500 $31,500

$41,200 $54,400 $37,700 $36,700

31% 73% 20% 17%

$48,300 $48,300 $48,300

$54,900 $80,900 $54,400

14% 67% 13%

$36,700 $36,700 $36,700 $36,700 $36,700

$41,200 $54,400 $48,100 $80,900 $46,900

12% 48% 31% 120% 28%

Opportunity Occupation Pest Control Workers Real Estate Sales Agents Customer Service Representatives Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs Insurance Sales Agents First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers Transportation Security Screeners Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks Ophthalmic Medical Technicians Property, Real Estate, and Community Association Managers Impacted Occupation: Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs 0.41 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 0.38 Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers 0.37 Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing 0.37 Impacted Occupation: Telecommunications Equipment Installers and Repairers, Except Line Installers Industrial Engineering Technologists and Technicians 0.67 Computer Network Support Specialists 0.41 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 0.36 Impacted Occupation: Tellers Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs 0.56 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 0.62 Computer User Support Specialists 0.44 Computer Network Support Specialists 0.42 Insurance Sales Agents 0.33 Source: Alexander Research and Consulting calculations.

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C

APPENDIX C. DATA AND METHODS

Appendix

DATAIA NN TR D OM D EUTCHT O IO DN S

DATA AND METHODS OCCUPATIONAL DATA Occupational level data were obtained primarily from JobEQ, which is a cloud-based software tool that provides labor market information. Projection information, including openings, as well as demographic information and job posting activity were obtained from Economic Modeling Specialists International (Emsi), another proprietary source of labor market information.

To identify impacted and opportunity occupations, the change in employment between 2014 and 2019 was used to measure historic growth trends, and the change in the unemployment rate from February 2020 to December 2020 was used to measure COVID impact. Occupations that represented less than 0.01 percent of the employment base were filtered out to leave only those occupations that represent a significant share of overall employment.

AUTOMATION INDEX Emsi’s automation index captures an occupation’s risk of being affected by automation using four measures.

• Percentage of time spent on high-risk work • Percentage of time spent on low-risk work • Number of high-risk jobs in compatible

17,000 unique skills. The skills are classified as baseline skills, which are generally foundational skills that apply to a broad range of occupations, or specialized skills, which are more specific to certain occupations.

The top 25 skills for impacted occupations are acquired from job postings collected between 2014 and 2019 to reflect the longer-term trends prior to the COVID pandemic. The top 25 skills for opportunity occupations are acquired from job postings collected between September 2020 and March 2021 to reflect any changes in skills requirements that might have occurred during the pandemic.

SIMILARITY SCORES The methodology for measuring similarity between two occupations was replicated from the US Federal Reserve System’s research about occupational mobility. To identify occupations with alike skills portfolios, the cosine similarity measure was used.

The measure indicates the degree to which two skills portfolios, as measured by the skill intensities of the top 25 skills, are aligned. The formula for cosine similarity is below.

occupations • Overall industry automation risk

The automation index is presented as a scale with a base of 100. An automation index greater than 100 indicates a higher-than-average risk of automation; an automation index less than 100 indicates a lowerthan-average risk of automation (from: kb.emsidata. com/glossary/automation-index).

SKILLS The top 25 skills for each occupation are derived from online job postings that are collected and analyzed by Burning Glass Technologies, a proprietary data provider of real-time labor market information. Burning Glass maintains a database of online job postings that are extracted from more than 40,000 online job boards and corporate websites. This database includes skills that are classified using a taxonomy that consists of over

56

Where Ai and Bi are the skill intensities for skill i in occupation A and occupation B, respectively.

A cosine similarity score is calculated for each of the 1,406 pairs of occupations in the Tampa Bay Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The scores range from zero to one, and the higher the score, the greater the alignment between the skills requested in a second occupation.

These pairs represent potential transitions from an impacted occupation to an opportunity occupation.

A viable transition is defined as a transition with at least a 10 percent increase in median annual wages between an opportunity and an impacted occupation and a similarity score of at least 0.33.

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