Letter to a Friend
My friend, Many people from our submarine cable community welcome the emergence of Huawei as a new supplier and see this step as not only logical, but inevitable. They see this as an opportunity for more competition and, consequently, lower prices. Everyone knows that the obstacles to entering this business are high, but no real doubts exist as to Huawei’s ability to emerge successfully. Nothing is impossible for the Chinese! Many people feel that this development is very dangerous for the Japanese industry, which could likely be the first to be victimized But strangely enough, I am hearing more concerns from the western suppliers than from the Japanese. Is there something more we must understand here, my friend? China is now the second largest global economy, coming after the United States and before Japan. This is big news for the Chinese, however China did not publicize it. Nonetheless, it is a real victory of a country that suffered under cruel occupation by the Japanese, who believed firmly in Tokyo’s superiority over all of Asia. China will not soon forget the 12 million dead, 10,0000 taken prisoner, the Nanking and Shanghai massacres, or the policy of general Okamura: ”Kill everyone, burn everything, steal everything.” The future, however, may not be just a continuation of the past.
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by Jean Devos
From 1949 until 1997, Hong Kong was China’s open window to the rest of the world. Taiwan now plays a similar role as the investment bank and technology research laboratory for the whole of China. Is it now Japan’s turn? Is Japan China’s new open window? Does China see Japan as a possible extension of its own “garden?” Let’s not forget that the 130 million Japanese still generate a total national product almost equivalent to the 1.3 billion Chinese. Taiwan and Hong Kong pale in comparison. Japan and China’s economies are closing in upon each other rapidly. Japan is now exporting more goods to China than to the US, and China’s contribution to the Japanese economy continues to grow each year. Chinese investors have recently been very active in Japan. This will likely lead to a political understanding, if not a partnership, in the near future. “Dobu Dochun” “Same writing, same culture.” This old Sino Japanese saying is now proving itself to be truer than ever. China and Japan’s long-term interests lie more in cooperation than in conflict. It seems to me that they have started on a new and promising path. How will that translate into our interests? Who knows?