BACK BASICS
O’Connor said that demand is increasing, but slowly. System upgrades and new builds will occur only where demand is visible. One sector in which demand will be visible is unrepeatered links, according to KMI Research. Even in these times of tight capital spending, unrepeatered upgrades will account for a growing proportion of submarine market activity. Such upgrades require less capital and have a more readily quantifiable return on investment compared with long-haul and ultra-longhaul builds.
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George Miller, KMI Research
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Symposium in San Diego. “Railroads suffered from ruinous competition in the 19th Century until the creation of the ICC,” said Dr. Kasdan. He concluded that for the submarine telecom industry “it appears that an industry structure will develop, allowing participants to profit.” Achieving Dr, U n re p e a te re d System S y s te m Installations In s ta lla tio n s (Rt-km) (R t-k m ) Unrepeatered Kasdan’s vision will require a return to the 2 0 ,0 0 0 basics. “The initial 1 5 ,0 0 0 step must be to clear oversupply,” said 1 0 ,0 0 0 Piers O’Connor, president at BIAS/ 5 ,0 0 0 PICS Ltd. in Rio de 0 Janiero. Some assets will be consolidated while others are A nnual C u m u la tive abandoned. Mr. 1989
The challenges we face as an industry— however daunting—are understandable in a fundamental economic context, according to John Kasdan, senior research fellow at the Center for Tele Information at Columbia University in New York. Submarine telecom woes resemble those of the airlines, the early days of telephony, and—yes—even the railroads. But unlike many press accounts that use the railroad analogy to imply a massive industry meltdown preceding the conversion of assets into scenic bicycle trials, Dr. Kasan digs deeper and strikes optimism. Dr. Kasdan spoke in June at KMI Research’s 8 th Annual Fiberoptic Submarine Systems John Kasdan
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