A Look Behind the Scenes: Internet Traffic Trends By Alan Mauldin
Submarine cable operators around the world continue to benefit from the insatiable demand for bandwidth. It is worthwhile to take a look behind the scenes of this growth to see what the drivers are and how likely they may be to persist. It is common knowledge that the demand placed on the international submarine cables is predominantly due capacity used by Internet backbones. The traffic carried by the global Internet has surged in recent years as the number of broadband subscribers exploded and new high-bandwidth applications and services have transformed how the Internet is used. Based on data collected directly from providers during 2007, TeleGeography found that aggregate average international Internet traffic grew 57 percent between 2006 and 2007. International capacity growth has largely mirrored growth in international Internet traffic; however, traffic growth and capacity growth seldom move in perfect symmetry. Since TeleGeography began tracking Internet traffic data in 2003, average and peak traffic on most international links increased at faster rates than the capacity of the links, causing utilization rates to rise. However, during 2007, carriers were faced with rising utilization levels and, in anticipation of future growth, deployed new international Internet capacity at a faster pace (68 percent) than average traffic levels rose Traffic Drivers The total amount of traffic generated by Internet end-users has increased dramatically as consumers migrate to higher bandwidth technologies such as Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) and cable broadband. Broadband users tend to spend more time using the Internet and use bandwidth-intensive applications more frequently than narrowband users. During 2006, the total number of broadband subscribers in the world rose 33 percent compared with 2005, to more than 275 million. In 2006, the pace of annual growth continued to slow compared to the three preceding years (subscriber growth was 44 percent in 2005, 55 percent in 2004, and 61 percent in 2003). TeleGeography expects that the rate of broadband subscriber growth will continue to slow to 24 percent in 2007. In addition to reporting total volumes of traffic, carriers surveyed by TeleGeography were also asked to report the share of Internet traffic that various end-user applications accounted for on their networks. The applications driving traffic on IP networks vary substantially among providers. However, it is
clear that video content, whether downloaded from the Web, accessed through a file-sharing application, or streamed live, has become the largest consumer of network capacity. The most commonly used applications to transmit video content are the Web and peer-to-peer (P2P) applications. Not surprisingly, TeleGeography’s survey of backbone operators reveals that Web and peer-to-peer (P2P) are the two dominant types of traffic, accounting for more than two-thirds of total Internet traffic on many networks. The share of peer-to-peer (P2P) traffic on Internet providers’ networks varies widely. In TeleGeography’s survey sample, P2P traffic ranged from 10 to 42 percent of provider’s total traffic. What accounts for the broad variance in P2P traffic levels? A major factor influencing P2P traffic levels is broadband access. Internet providers that operate primarily in countries with fewer high-speed access users have much less P2P traffic on their networks. In addition, providers that focus on enterprise customers also reported little P2P traffic. Finally, it is possible that many providers may not be completely aware of the true P2P traffic levels on their networks, since P2P applications often masquerade as other types of traffic to avoid detection. Not all P2P file-downloading applications are illicit. Many companies are exploring the use of P2P distribution for software patches and similar content. Further, BitTorrent, the company that employs a P2P file downloading technology widely used to pirate illegal content, has entered into agreements with many studios and content providers, including 20th Century Fox, Paramount, and MTV Networks, to distribute legal video and music content. The share of total Internet traffic created through P2P file downloading has decreased slightly (down from over 60 percent in 2004). However, the change is not nearly as dramatic as might be expected given increased copyright enforcement and the emerging availability of high-quality, cheap, legal content. The lower share of P2P traffic is a reflection of increased webbased traffic, discussed below, than a decrease in the amount of P2P traffic. While P2P file downloading applications remain a huge source of Internet traffic, P2P streaming media applications could have a significant upward effect on bandwidth demand in the future. Unlike standard server-to-client file downloading, streaming
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