FEATURE
SO, YOU WANT TO BUILD A CABLE SYSTEM What are the Odds?
BY KIERAN CLARK
S
ystem development is a trial from concept to commissioning, typically taking anywhere from 18-24 months During this time, the system developer will clear a number of typical milestones that will pave the way for system installation and ultimately its full commissioning. There are many quantifiable factors that help determine whether or not a planned system enters service. Using a comprehensive data set coupled with refined statistical analysis, it is possible to develop a predictive model to determine the probability over time of a given system developer’s chance of success. To develop such a model, we have identified several key factors to determine historical trends. After these trends have been identified, it is then possible to predict the relative success of system development. We identified three primary time-based values that will ultimately determine the system developer’s success: • Time from announcement to Contract-In-Force (CIF) • Time from CIF to start of Marine Route Survey • Time from start of Marine Route Survey to start of Manufacturing
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SUBMARINE TELECOMS MAGAZINE
CONCEPTUAL MODEL
It is typically believed that once a system is Contractin-Force (CIF), it possesses all the financing it needs to design, manufacture, install and commission a submarine cable system. But recent practice has also shown that financing is provided in stages and few “blank checks” are offered at the outset of a system development. Assuming there are five gates in the financing of a system, namely initial announcement of system, CIF, start of marine route survey, start of manufacturing and commissioning / Ready