FEATURE
WHAT ARE
THE ODDS?
An Analysis of the Likelihood a New System Will be Accomplished BY KRISTIAN NIELSEN
I
n this tremendous industry, there is no shortage of developers with a dream. Every planned system comes from someone with a twinkle of innovation in their eye, they can see an opportunity someone else has not – they come from every corner of the world, some experienced and some branching into a new industry. There is no single determining factor that grants a new system a guaranteed installation, fortune and circumstance can help, but today there have been systems that are ready for service and were stalled for political reasons. There are no guarantees. So, what makes a system possible? What takes an idea and spins it into fiber? The factors are too many to enumerate, there are, however, quantifiable factors that we can compare. With the correct data, any analysis is possible. Using a comprehensive data set coupled with refined statistical analysis, it is possible to develop a predictive model to determine the probability over time of a given system developer’s chance of success. To develop such a predictive model, several key factors must be identified to determine historical trends. After
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these trends have been identified, it is then possible to predict the relative success of system development. The primary factors to identify in the predictive model include the following: • Initial Public Announcement of the System • Initial Announcement to CIF • CIF to Start of Marine Survey • Start of Marine Survey to Start of Manufacturing • Start of Manufacturing to End of Commissioning (Ready for Service) Trends can then be determined on either a quarterly or month-to-month basis – e.g., “Every additional quarter between announcement and CIF decreases success chance by X percent”. Where possible, regional adjustments can be applied, and other potential indicators identified in the predictive model with a similar trending process being utilized. It is generally accepted that once a system reaches Contract in Force, it posses the necessary funding to, or near to, fully accomplish the design, survey, manufacturing, installation and commissioning of a system. As such, the moment that any developing system hinges on is the moment that funding