FEATURE
FORECASTING CAPACITY NEEDS IN FEASIBILITY STUDIES FOR SUBMARINE CABLE PROJECTS BY DANIEL LEZA AND KRISTIAN NIELSEN INTRODUCTION:
Submarine cable systems are the unseen lifeline of global communication, carrying over 99% of all international data traffic. Their existence enables seamless international business, entertainment, and information exchange in our hyper-connected world. However, as technological progress accelerates and data demand soars, accurate forecasting of capacity needs during feasibility studies becomes crucial. Miscalculating future data needs can result in under-dimensioned systems that underperform or over-dimensioned systems that never reach their full utilization, leading to inefficiency and financial waste. In this article, we’ll delve into the crucial role that capacity forecasting plays in feasibility studies for submarine cables. We will outline the methodologies used, discuss the challenges faced, and illustrate practical examples from two major projects: the Humboldt Cable System and the proposed Basilan, Sulu, and Tawi-Tawi cable project.
THE ROLE OF FEASIBILITY STUDIES:
Feasibility studies are the foundation upon which submarine cable projects are built. They encompass comprehensive assessments that consider technical, environmental, economic, and institutional factors, shaping decisions on
design, routing, network specifications, and the overall viability of a project. Capacity forecasting is the linchpin in these studies, providing essential data to determine project requirements and potential profitability. Here are some critical aspects of feasibility studies: In feasibility studies for submarine cable projects, several analyses are conducted. Technical Assessments evaluate the feasibility of the proposed cable route, considering factors such as depth, seabed topography, and natural hazards to ensure reliable performance. Environmental Impact Studies ensure compliance with regulations, identify risks to marine ecosystems, and suggest mitigation strategies. Economic Evaluations assess the financial viability by estimating costs and revenues, where accurate capacity forecasting is crucial for projecting potential revenue. Institutional and Regulatory Analysis involves identifying the institutional structure best suited for the project, and coordination with government agencies, private-sector stakeholders, and civil society organizations to ensure smooth implementation and compliance with regulations. These components influence decisions from design to deployment.
IMPORTANCE OF CAPACITY FORECASTING:
In the planning of submarine cable infrastructure, accuMAY 2024 | ISSUE 136 73