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Strategic Vision vol. 11, no. 54 (October, 2022)
Reading Misfortunes Though timing varies, predictions agree: war is coming to Taiwan Strait Charles Yang
I
n recent years, political and military circles in the United States have begun to issue frequent predictions about just when the Taiwan Strait war will break out. While those predictions vary, they all share the same dire warning: the time is getting nearer. Just recently, during the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Xi Jinping stated that, “we will never promise to give up the use of force” regarding Taiwan. This came at a time when high-level US officials have been reiterating warnings about an impending cross-strait war. Do they have access to relevant information, or are
they engaging in political propaganda? Taiwanese people are very concerned. On September 18, 2021, Nikkei Asia published an interview with Admiral Philip Davidson, who at the time was the head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, in which the admiral expressed his belief that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) would have the capability and the capacity to forcibly unify Taiwan within the next six years. Speaking at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing this May, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines describes as “acute” the threat that Beijing would use force to
photo: ROC MND The ROC military has keenly observed events unfolding in Ukraine as this conflict may hold lessons for a potential war in the Taiwan Strait.
Dr. Charles Yang is an adjunct associate professor in the Department of Public Administration and Management at Chinese Culture University in Taipei. He graduated from the Graduate Institute of National Development at National Taiwan University. He can be reached at: d88341003@ntu.edu.tw