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Strategic Vision vol. 10, no. 51 (December, 2021)
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Negotiations needed to reduce rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait Shao-cheng Sun
photo: Mario Ramirez The USS Ralph Johnson operates with an AH-1Z Viper and MH-60 R helicopter near the coast of Misawa, Japan.
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ince 2016, relations across the Taiwan Strait have become very dangerous. China’s military threat against Taiwan has intensified. In the first four days of October 2021, China’s air force intruded into Taiwan’s air defense zone more than 150 times in the largest incursions ever seen. Military observers warn that a Chinese invasion seems imminent. In response, the US military presence in the Taiwan Strait has become more visible. Small teams of American troops, including Marines and Army Special Forces, have conducted training sessions in Taiwan with the Republic of China (ROC) military. If there is to be a war between the United States and China, the trigger will likely be Taiwan. This article explores China’s intentions to conquer Taiwan,
the impact of losing Taiwan, and the risk of military conflict between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Achieving what the Chinese call “reunification” with Taiwan would be the biggest feather in PRC President Xi Jinping’s hat. The Chinese government has made it clear that if Taiwan declares independence, it would be an instant trigger for war. After Tsai Ing-wen won the ROC presidency in 2016, she refused to accept the “1992 Consensus,” which was embraced by her predecessor, former President Ma Ying-jeou. If Xi thinks that achieving peaceful unification with Taiwan is not going to happen, he will likely resort to the use of force. To that end, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is now ramping up its readiness for an invasion of Taiwan.
Dr. Shao-cheng Sun is an assistant professor at The Citadel specializing in China’s security, East Asian affairs, and cross-strait relations. He can be reached for comment at ssun@citadel.edu