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Strategic Vision vol. 8, no. 43 (November, 2019)
Embracing Change Taiwan must adopt a more asymmetric defensive posture to counter China Tobias Burgers
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n a recent report for the Center for New American Security (CNAS), researchers Robert Work and Greg Grant (2019) argue that China has excelled at beating America at their own game: Using technological advancements to counter an existing military superiority. In their review, they outline how China has over the last two decades, cleverly used new technological innovations to contest American military superiority in East Asia. From the famed DF-21 D, better known as the carrier killer, to innovations in cyber and other information technologies, China has been able to develop a new array of weapon systems that have gradually enabled it to challenge US dominance in the Pacific region. Whereas during the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, the United States illustrated its dominance and superiority by sailing two carrier strike groups unopposed in the region of the Taiwan Strait, now 23 years later, such an outcome would be unlikely. China’s increasing asymmetric military power has enabled it to challenge and contest US dominance within the First Island Chain, and to some extent, through the development of long-range strike projection capabilities, even toward the Second Island Chain, through the deployment of its anti-access, area-denial (A2/ AD) strategy. China is now able to effectively counter American naval and aerial dominance in what Beijing calls the “Three Seas:” the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the Yellow Sea. China has arguably challenged US forces through
the use of an A2/AD strategy which focuses heavily on the use of long-range weaponry and integrated intelligence systems. US military bases in Guam, as well as aircraft carriers in the Western Pacific, could become subject to long-range bomber attacks and missiles strikes. While the United States has far from lost its dominance and can still be regarded as the primary dominant military actor in the region, the CNAS report makes clear how technology—the driving factor behind US post-Cold War military dominance—can be applied to create novel asymmetric power capabilities which seriously threaten the status quo.
Indigenous offset strategy While the report is aimed at an American audience, there is a clear lesson to be learned for policymakers and planners in Taiwan. Somewhat ironically, it could learn from China’s approach of the last decades and apply this to beat China at its own game. Taiwan should understand and copy China’s tricks, and apply these in its cross-strait military dynamics. It should seek to develop an indigenous offset strategy that would enable it to counter Chinese military superiority. This could be valuable as Taiwan has by no means the economic and military means and capabilities to contest China’s growing military resources, power, and its ability to project power, just like China initially didn’t have the economic or military means
Tobias Burgers is an assistant professor at the Cyber Civilization Research Center at Keio University. He can be reached for comment at burgers@zedat.fu-berlin.de