Opinion Editorial theactuary.com
editor@theactuary.com
Time travels Kelvin Chamunorwa highlights the advancement in technology and its impact on actuarial work
Publisher Redactive Media Group 17-18 Britton Street, London EC1M 5TP +44 (0)20 7880 6200 Publishing director Joanna Marsh Managing editor Sharon Maguire +44 (0)20 7880 6246 sharon.maguire@redactive.co.uk Sub-editors Kathryn Manning Caroline Taylor
It is hard to believe that this issue of The Actuary is the last one of this year, and concludes my two-year editorship. They say time flies when you’re having fun, but apparently there is actually a scientific theory behind this saying. Unfortunately for me, entering into a time warp to extend the experience is the preserve of only science fiction. Interestingly though, what was once a figment of science fiction writers’ imagination is now actually taking root in our everyday existence. Take artificial intelligence (AI), which is already having a profound, yet subtle, impact on our lives today. Email spam filtering, search engine predictions and voice recognition are familiar examples of AI technologies, all based on machine learning algorithms. This is also relevant to us as actuaries, since machine learning has applications in actuarial work too, as Tony Ward demonstrates. In this issue, he presents a framework for building generalised linear models – which many actuaries will be conversant with in their work – using predictive modelling techniques from machine learning. It is a fascinating article that uses real data from TheActuaryJobs.com to illustrate the concept (p27). On the subject of models, Roger Simler and Andrew Wood argue that model error risk should be more prominent in the minds of insurance company board members and senior managers. The authors make a strong case for the need to develop a holistic model risk assessment framework across an organisation (p21). Elsewhere in this edition, we interview Kathryn Morgan, an actuary who leads regulatory operations at the Financial Services Commission in Gibraltar and also sits on the IFoA Council (p18). Among the many letters we received this month, actuaries have their say on a range of topics, including climate change, censuses and cheese (p5). To conclude, I extend my gratitude to the entire team at The Actuary, its contributors and its readers, for a most memorable experience. Thank you also to Ruvi, Kuzi, Paida and Nandi at home for sacrificing your time with me as I served my profession in this way. I now leave you in the capable hands of incoming editor Richard Purcell.
“What was once a figment of science-fiction writers’ imagination is now actually taking root in our everyday existence”
Kelvin Chamunorwa Editor
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Internet The Actuary: www.theactuary.com Institute and Faculty of Actuaries: www.actuaries.org.uk Editor Kelvin Chamunorwa editor@theactuary.com Features editors Contact: features@theactuary.com Jeremy Lee, pensions, investment, ERM, banking
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Circulation 25,331 (July 2013 to June 2014)
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THE ACTUARY • December 2015 www.theactuary.com
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