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Ag policy experts offer 3 forecasts for the 2023 farm bill By Timothy Eggert, Agriculture Policy Editor | Farm Week Now
Every dollar will be questioned, conservation spending could get trimmed and a status quo attitude may preserve some vital programs while gutting others.
reelected. Final assignments will come once the new Congress is seated.
Those are among the top forecasts for how drafting the 2023 farm bill might play out in the next Congress, one featuring a Republican majority in the U.S. House and Democratic control in the U.S. Senate.
And that voice will likely join others on the committee in advocating for a “business-as-usual” farm bill that preserves crop insurance, keeps commodity title program spending the same and makes “some tweaks” to other programs, according to Paulson.
And the work likely won’t be done before next October.
They were offered by Jonathan Coppess, director of the University of Illinois’ Gardner Agriculture Policy Program; Nick Paulson, U of I professor and ag economist; and Mary Kay Thatcher, Syngenta’s senior lead of federal government relations, during a panel discussion at the 2022 Farm Assets Conference. Even though the farm bill can serve as a basis for bipartisanship, political dynamics will still play a major role in crafting next year’s legislation, Coppess said.
“We’ve had some challenges the last two farm bill goarounds, and I think those challenges will still exist politically,” Coppess said, adding those issues will be magnified by the narrow margins in each chamber.
U.S. Rep. Glenn “GT” Thompson, R-Pa., will lead the House Ag Committee while U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., will retain her chair position in the Senate Ag Committee. Thatcher said Thompson will likely bring a “whole different focus” to farm bill hearings, one that contrasts with the climate-related hearings lead by current committee chair Rep. David Scott, D-Ga.
The committee itself is also on track to look much different as U.S. Rep. Mary Miller, R-Oakland, is one of four committee members from Illinois to be
Nevada Farm Bureau
Coppess said it’s “vital” for Illinois as an “incredibly important agricultural state” to have a voice on both the House and Senate ag committees.
Coppess agreed, but added he hopes a “tough farm bill debate” leads to “some creativity, pushing some innovation” in policy areas like risk management.
“As you think about priorities and these conversations, ideally it is something creative, something new than just ‘I want a higher number in the statute,’” he said. Here are two other predictions offered by the panel:
Debt ceiling debate to loom over negotiations The projected $1.3 trillion price tag for the 2023 farm bill will play a major role in determining baseline appropriations and defending increases for each title’s program, the panelists said. How the current Congress resolves funding the government through the next fiscal year while also addressing concerns over the national deficit and debt ceiling will also matter, Coppess said.
He added that plans to cut from or add to a certain farm bill program means compromises must be made to other programs. For the last two cycles, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has been the program most targeted for cuts.
And because of significant increases in SNAP benefits Congress authorized to help with the COVID-19 pandemic, Coppess expects Republicans will again seek to shrink the program.
“But ultimately, when we talk about cutting SNAP, the only way that Congress can truly cut that program cost is to push people out of programs,” Coppess said. “And that’s why it gets ugly, partisan and rancorous in those discussions, because those are somebody’s constituents who no longer get assistance.”
IRA conservation funding in limbo Another area bound for Republican scrutiny is the $18 billion in conservation program spending outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act, the panelists said. Because that funding is for farm bill programs and will extend through 2031, lawmakers would need to rescind it as an offset and spend it elsewhere to get it into the bill’s program baselines.
“You’d have to cut it, you’d have to take and pull that money back,” Coppess said. “It’s not an easy, free batch of $18 billion.”
Paulson agreed, saying he doesn’t expect “big shifts” in the conservation title’s baselines. But he said the ag industry is moving toward practices outlined in those programs regardless of the extra funding. “I think it’s pretty clear that that’s the direction the wind is blowing,” Paulson said. “The carrot approaches that are being proposed are a lot better than the sticks that could have been proposed.”
Nevada Farm Bureau Presents Congressman Amodei With Friend Of Farm Bureau Award Scheduling became something of a challenge to set up the meeting to present Nevada Congressman Mark Amodei with this “Friend of Farm Bureau” Award for the just concluded 116th Session of Congress, but that has been marked as accomplished when Nevada Farm Bureau Executive Vice President Doug Busselman met with Nevada’s 2nd District Congressman on January 18th. This award is based on official voting record results compiled by the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). Congressman Amodei scored an 86 percent voting record, agreeing with the Farm Bureau positions during the 2021-2022 Congressional session. He has earned this award for each of the sessions he has served as a U.S. Congressman. “We’re very fortunate to have a representative like Congressman Amodei who hears what Farm Bureau policy urges and is so willing to work with our organization in considering our views on the issues being debated in the nation’s Capital.” Busselman said. “We’ve had a very good working relationship with Mark going back to his service in the Nevada Legislature.”
34 FEBRUARY 2023
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