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Beating the Australians at beef exports BY: TONY LEGGETT
A
ustralia’s vast beef cattle herd is in the early stages of rebuilding following prolonged and crippling drought. That’s positive news for New Zealand beef farmers because it means reduced competition from Australian beef exporters, particularly in the high volume United States manufacturing beef market and premium niches in Asian markets like China. But the window of opportunity for NZ beef exporters could be short lived, according to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) which is predicting a 10% rebound in beef exports over the next three years. Its latest analysis notes recent forecasts predicting 5% growth in global economic activity in 2021 which will strengthen demand for beef.
The speed of recovery of China’s domestic pork sector from years of dealing with African Swine Fever is the most globally significant factor to watch, it says. The disease has created huge demand for imported beef protein in China, fueling demand from competing sources, including New Zealand and particularly South America. MLA is warning Australia’s beef exporters to start investing in growing and consolidating new and existing markets to position themselves as preferred suppliers for when China’s pork industry recovers and competing beef exporters increasingly look for new customers in other markets. In the meantime, the focus across the Tasman is on rebuilding its cow herd. A modest increase of 2% in the size of Australia’s national cattle herd to 25.2 million head is expected by the end of 2021. This rebuild comes after Australian
cattle numbers fell to their lowest level in two decades in 2020, following the prolonged, severe drought. Fueling the recovery in numbers are the improved seasonal conditions in southern Australia throughout much of the second half of 2020 and above-average summer rain in northern Australia during the 2020– 21 wet season. These factors are expected to produce excellent feed conditions in all the major cattle producing regions, with the exception of parts of West Australia. MLA expects the finished cattle supply to tighten for most of 2021, as farmers retain more breeding stock to rebuild their herds. Weekly slaughter statistics are already showing the percentage of females slaughtered are under 50% of the total, a strong signal the rebuild is well underway. About 3% fewer cattle are expected to be slaughtered this calendar year compared with a year ago, bringing the number
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