ENERGY AND GEOPOLITICS IN EURASIA
The European Energy System’s Conundrum
Raúl Bajo-Buenestado Nonresident Scholar
Introduction Europe’s energy systems stand at a complex crossroads. In the years leading up to the 2020 launch of the European Green Deal, the continent witnessed a surge in renewable energy deployment, supported by flexible and relatively affordable natural gas generation. But the geopolitical shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted this equilibrium (much like an elephant in a china shop) ushering in a “new normal” marked by persistently high energy prices, which resulted in (further) eroded industrial competitiveness and growing social discontent. This shifting landscape has triggered a fundamental reassessment of Europe’s energy strategy. The emerging roadmap points toward a greater role for nuclear energy and a more pragmatic understanding of the function and structural limitations of renewables. Other uncertainties remain, such as pace of government-directed decarbonization milestones, the role battery storage and hydrogen may play in Europe’s decarbonization trajectory, as well as the challenges imposed by a growing fragmentation in national energy strategies.
Energy Insights 2025
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