ENERGY AND GEOPOLITICS IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Peril or Promise in East Mediterranean Natural Gas?
Jim Krane Diana Tamari Sabbagh Fellow in Middle East Energy Studies | CES Lead, Energy and Geopolitics in the Middle East
Introduction The exuberance generated by the discovery of some 80 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean has been difficult to miss. The gas fields lie beyond the Middle East’s three major chokepoints and within pipeline distance of the European Union, suggesting, in theory, an ideal replacement to Russian supply.1 Israel is among the new producers. Its supporters have sought to leverage Israeli gas exports to improve moribund relations with surrounding countries. And the potential for a new source of state revenue has been viewed in Washington as a potential catalyst for solving longstanding disputes over maritime boundaries. Resolving the clash over the division of Cyprus, dating to 1974, is seen as the big prize. In some ways, the Eastern Mediterranean gas push has succeeded. Production increases have been impressive. Egypt and Israel have gone from just over 3 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in 2004 to 7.8 bcf/d in 2023, an increase of nearly 150%.2 More gas is scheduled to come onstream in 2025 and 2026, including the first-ever production in Cyprus. A few exported cargoes of liquefied Egyptian and Israeli gas have helped cover the EU’s loss of Russian gas since 2022. Also, “gas diplomacy” has achieved one ringing success: The U.S.-brokered 2022 agreement demarcating the maritime boundary between Lebanon and Israel. Energy Insights 2025
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