LOGISTICS
CBIZ Consumer Products And Retail Symposium, April 16, 2026, Los Angeles By Ron Friedman
Hello again! It is that time of year as basketball season heads into the playoffs and the Dodgers start their run for a third World Series in a row. They are off to a great start, and I expect them to win over 100 games this year. Go Dodgers!
Standing at the podium of the eighth CBIZ Consumer Product and Retail Symposium, I joked about front‑row seats, cocktails and traffic, but beneath the banter, I knew why people had really fought their way across Los Angeles to be there. The fashion and retail executives in that room are navigating a world where the cost of moving goods and consumer behavior are both changing faster than any of us can remember. That’s exactly why I asked two long‑time friends, Robert Krieger and Marshal Cohen, to anchor our program this year. I’ve known Robert, president and CEO of Krieger Worldwide, for more than 30 years. He’s guided many of our clients through the maze of customs, freight and tariffs, and if there’s one thing I’ve learned watching him, it’s that the devil really is in the details. At this year’s symposium, his headline was deceptively simple: there is good news on tariff refunds, but it’s wrapped in a very complicated package. Robert explained that the long‑awaited refund process for certain tariffs is finally underway, with payouts expected 60 to 90 days after filing for those who are eligible and properly prepared. That sounds like a windfall, until you remember that we are asking the government to hand back what could be hundreds of billions of dollars. As Robert reminded us, no one should expect that to happen without intense scrutiny. Customs will be looking closely at valuation, classification, country of origin and any red flags in your history before they approve a single check. At the same time, the tariff landscape itself continues to shift under our feet. Robert walked us through the new 10% Section 122 surcharge, which has replaced earlier Economic Powers 30 | FM
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Act (EPA)‑style tariffs for many products, currently capped for six months but widely expected by trade attorneys to withstand legal challenges. He reminded us that new Section 301 investigations are also in the pipeline, likely to produce additional tariffs on countries viewed as acting unfairly. For anyone in fashion who imports fabric, trims or finished goods, that means you can’t treat today’s duty rate as permanent; it’s a snapshot in an evolving film. One of the most important warnings Robert shared involved valuation rules that many apparel brands have relied on for years. Under the current “first sale” regime, if you buy through a middleman, you may be able to pay duty on the lower first‑sale price instead of the higher second‑sale price, provided you meet strict conditions. A new bipartisan bill in the Senate, informally dubbed the “final sale rule,” from Sens. Bill Cassidy and Sheldon Whitehouse, threatens to end that practice and base duty on the final sale to retailers like Costco, Walmart or Macy’s. Layered on top of that is explicit signaling from customs that shifts from Free on Board (FOB) or Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) to Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) or Landed Duty Paid (LDP) terms are a red flag for undervaluation. In plain English: if you’re a brand that suddenly lets overseas suppliers “handle the importing,” expect more questions, not fewer. Of course, all of this sits atop freight costs that refuse to behave. There was a period when ocean rates from Asia dropped as carriers flooded the market with new container ships, and many in the room hoped that it would be the new normal. Robert poured some cold water on that optimism. Fuel surcharges, regulated by the Federal Maritime Commission, are kicking in after their 30‑day notice periods, and they’re not small. Tensions over Chinese involvement in the Panama Canal ports have led Chinese authorities to inspect and sometimes detain Panamanian‑flagged ships for extended “safety” checks, tying up an estimated 100 container vessels and driving demurrage and delay costs through the system. On top of that, the U.S. push to subsidize domestic shipbuilding via a tax on foreign‑built ships is
poised to add about a cent per kilo to many imports—a rounding error on light garments, but meaningful on heavy denim or outerwear. Robert did leave us with one cautious dose of optimism. Carriers ordered far too many new ships during the last cycle, and when some of the current geopolitical tensions ease, overcapacity should put downward pressure on rates again. His challenge to the room was straightforward: build a playbook that can handle freight going up before it goes down and tariffs that may become more complicated before they simplify. If Robert’s talk was about the cost side of the equation, Marshal Cohen, chief retail advisor at Circana, focused on the demand side. I’ve had the pleasure of bringing Marshal back to our symposium year after year because he has a unique ability to translate dense retail data into stories that make sense to operators. This year, he started by puncturing a myth many of us had heard all winter: the idea that retail just came off a blockbuster holiday season. Yes, Marshal confirmed that traffic looked great, and Black Friday parking lots were full. But when you peel back the numbers, the picture is more nuanced. Food and beverage sales are up about 3%, largely driven by roughly 3% price increases rather than consumers putting more units in their carts. The consumer packaged goods (CPG) sector is running around 2%, again in line with modest price inflation. General merchandise, where fashion lives, is up slightly under 2%. Against a backdrop of rising costs, that’s not nothing—but it’s a far cry from the “boom” story many headlines suggested. Marshal also talked about what he calls “false positives” in the data. A big spike in January food sales for 2026 looked exciting until you realized it was being compared to a prior year when a massive snowstorm kept shoppers home. Later in the month, another storm hit, and the comps reversed. Easter shifting on the calendar created another illusion of strength as this year’s holiday landed earlier than last, juicing late‑March results that will be much harder to match next year. His message to the mannpublications.com