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Time to Recommit to Syria

Will Anyone Benefit from UKâ€™s New Immigration Policy?

A Weekly Political News Magazine

Issue 1788- February - 21/02/2020

Fearing a Loss of Influence, Tehran Quietly Tightens Grip on Regional Allies www.majalla.com

Editorial

A Weekly Political News Magazine

Ever since its inception in 1979, the Iranian regime has been on a mission of gaining proxies within the region to expand its sphere of influence. The present governments in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon are fiercely loyal to the Islamic Republic and as such Tehran has been doing all it can to support these governments lest it risks the prospect of less cooperative leaders taking the mantle of governing those countries. As it stands, there are mass protests in both Lebanon and Iraq calling for an end to government corruption, fairer economic policies and an end to foreign intervention in domestic affairs. The protesters also want the toppling of their respective governments, evidently, this poses a risk for Tehran and for the past few months it has been doing all it can to tighten its grip on their proxies in both Iraq and Lebanon. This week’s cover story by Ali El Shamy focuses on how Tehran has been supporting the new governments in Beirut and Baghdad and why that will not appease the protestors who are still on the streets. Immigration has been one of the biggest topics at the forefront of Brexit. The Tory government has just unveiled its new points-based immigration policy which serves as a replacement to the EU’s free movement of people. The aim of this policy was to decrease the flow of low skilled migration in favour of migrants who are skilled in specific areas, that way more British citizens could have better access to these low skilled jobs. Yasmine El-Geressi writes on this new policy and argues that the measures are more political rather than economic since many of the unemployed people in the UK either can’t fill these jobs (pensioners) or are not actively seeking jobs (for example students). Art is a powerful medium that can serve as an outlet for talented individuals to express themselves. This past week, the Kensington Town Hall hosted the Parallax Art Fair which gives various artists from differing backgrounds the opportunity to showcase their work. Ali El Shamy interviews various artists who shared the meaning behind their art and their artistic journey. Animation is one of the most immersive pieces of entertainment and education, despite having a good start in the 1930s, Egypt has lagged behind in the industry. Saudi producer Abbass Alabbass has been on a -20year journey of making the first-ever all Arab animated film in Egypt, and his work paid off as the film “The Knight and The Princess” was shown in the 2019 Gouna Film Festival. Yasmine El-Geressi interviews Abbas who spoke of his struggles in producing the film. When the first trailer for the Sonic the Hedgehog film came out, it seemed like a train wreck waiting to happen. Thankfully, a delay brought about some much-needed changes in the titular character’s design. Now the film has opened to fanfare from audiences and critics. Ali El Shamy reviews this latest release from Paramount as it is set to surpass Detective Pikachu as the most successful video game film adaptation.

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Editor-in-Chief

Ghassan Charbel Editorial secretary Mostafa El-Dessouki HH Saudi Research and Marketing (UK) Ltd 10th Floor Building 7 Chiswick Business Park 566 Chiswick High Road London W4 5YG Tel : +44 207 831 8181 Fax: +44 207 831 2310

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

38 Parallax Art Fair Brings Artists from

Differing Backgrounds Under One Roof

Issue 1788- February - 21/02/2020

Set to Make Massive Gains 08 Hardliners in Legislative Elections

28 Animating Egypt

24 The Coronavirus Is a Stress Test for Xi Jinping

â€˜Sonic the Hedgehogâ€™ Director Saved the 42 How Movie from Massive Internet Backlash

Focus on concentration 3

46 The Dismal Kingdom 21/02/20

napshot

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Turkish soldiers gather in the village of Qaminas. Turkey sent additional troops into the region and threatened to respond if its military observation posts in Idlib, set up under a truce, came under attack )Getty(

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napshot

An aerial view of the Welsh village of Crickhowell which has been cut off as the river Usk burst its banks at Crickhowell bridge near the Bridge End Inn on February 2020 ,16 in Crickhowell, Wales. The Met Office have issued a red weather warning for rain in Wales and a yellow weather warning for wind for large parts of the UK as storm Dennis passes over the UK. (Getty)

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eekly news

The British Conservative Party Introduces New Points Based Immigration System, faces Backlash from Opposition Parties Britain’s government on Wednesday faced a backlash over its new post-Brexit immigration plans, which are designed to cut “cheap Labour from Europe” in favour of high-skilled English speakers. The points-based system is due to start on January 1, 2021, and was billed as “taking back control” of Britain’s borders -- a key demand of anti-EU campaigners in the divisive Brexit debate. Interior minister Priti Patel called the sweeping reforms “firm and fair” and said it would make it easier for higher-skilled workers to get visas, and harder for low-skilled migrants to do so. “We need to shift the focus of our economy away from a reliance on cheap labour from Europe and instead concentrate on investment in technology and automation,” she said.

Her opposite number at the smaller Liberal Democrats said the policy was “based on xenophobia, not the social and economic needs of our country”. “Too many businesses are already struggling to hire the workers they need. Now the Tories want to stop them recruiting all but the highest-paid employees from abroad,” said Christine Jardine who is serving as the Liberal Democrat Home Affairs spokesperson.

The plans are the biggest change to immigration policy in 50 years and will go before parliament, where Prime Minister Boris Johnson has a comfortable majority. But the Conservative government was accused of failing to assess the impact of the reforms on the economy, while businesses heavily reliant on foreign labour questioned the feasibility of the policy. The main opposition Labour party said some sectors’ reliance on foreign workers would force the government to make numerous exceptions, rendering the new rules “meaningless”. Its home affairs spokesman Diana Abbott called it a “salary threshold system”, which would hit the already hard-pressed state-run National Health Service and social care sector. “If they are all short-term visas, only the most desperate workers will come, and will have the effect of creating a two-tier workforce,” Abott said.

Mike Bloomberg Surges in Polls, Qualifies for Next Democratic Debate Mike Bloomberg who made a last minute entry for the Democratic presidential nomination, but despite his late entry he has surged in the polls, and is now nationally placed in third place after Senator Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden. Bloomberg, who owns a media empire, has been ac-

cused of buying his way into the debate due to his massive spending on advertising. According to AP He has spent more than $400 million on advertising and some reports have even indicated that he has also paid social media influencers to endorse him online to their followers. Hardliners Set to Make Massive Gains in Legislative Elections This Friday’s legislative elections in Iran will be the first one since the tensions in the Arabian Gulf. In order to secure a massive victory, as thousands of candidates, most of them moderates and reformists, have been barred from entering the race by the Council, which is dominated by ultra-conservatives. In spite of this, the Council’s spokesman Abbas Ali Kadkhodaee said the body was “neutral” in its dealings with all political camps. The Islamic Republic has been faced with protests, and many opposition groups and young voters are planning to boycott the election. Nevertheless, the Council seemed optimistic with the expected voter participation as it said that it expected at least 50 percent of registered vot-

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ers to turn out at Friday’s election. Prime Minister Allawi Picks New Cabinet Seeks Parliamentary Approval Iraq’s new transitional Prime Minister has said on Wednesday that he has picked a new government made up of political independents, and will seek a vote of confidence on the government on Monday. In a televised speech, he also called on protestors to give his new cabinet a chance and promised to pave the way to an early election free from “the influence of money, weapons, and foreign interference”. This comes as the country has been embroiled in protests since October, which has caused the deaths of 500 protestors.

were released. Earlier on Wednesday, Iranian authorities confirmed two cases of the new virus, the first in the country, according to the semi-official ISNA news agency. Officials later said the two patients had died. ISNA quoted an official in the country’s health ministry, Kiyanoush Jahanpour, as saying that “since last two days, some suspected cases of the new coronavirus were found.” The new virus emerged in China in December. Since then, more than 75,000 people have been infected globally, with more than 2,000 deaths being reported, mostly in China. The new virus comes from a large family of what are known as coronaviruses, some causing nothing

worse than a cold. It causes cold- and flu-like symptoms, including cough and fever, and in more severe cases, shortness of breath. It can worsen to pneumonia, which can be fatal. Egypt’s Health Ministry only identified its sole case as a foreigner who is carrying the virus but not showing any serious symptoms. The ministry said the person was hospitalized and in isolation. It did not specify the person’s nationality or what port of entry he or she arrived at in Egypt. The case in Egypt was also the first on the African continent. Experts and African leaders have expressed concern that should the virus spread there, it might wreak havoc among less developed countries

Iran State News Agency Says Coronavirus Has Citizens 2 Killed The new virus has killed two elderly Iranian citizens, Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency reported Wednesday. IRNA quoted Alireza Vahabzadeh, an adviser to the country’s health minister, as saying that both of the victims had been carrying the coronavirus and were located in Qom, about 140 kilometers (86 miles) south of the capital Tehran. No additional details with fewer health resources. First Coronavirus Case in Egypt Turns into False Alarm The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Wednesday that the person previously confirmed to have the COVID-19 coronavirus in Egypt is on his way to recovery, after latest tests showed he was “no longer carrying the virus”. “He will remain in quarantine until the full 14-day period is over and will be undergoing further required tests to ensure he was fully recovered,” WHO spokeswoman Inas Hamam said in an email. Egypt confirmed the case, its first, last week. It remains the only known instance of the new coronavirus in Africa. State TV earlier said a foreigner thought to be carrying the coronavirus had tested negative, raising questions about his initial infection.

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over story

Fearing a Loss of Influence, Tehran Quietly Tightens Grip on Regional Allies Protestors Are No Longer Tolerating Puppets for Foreign Powers 10

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Hezbollah did another provoking move this week as it unveiled a statue of Qassem Soleimani in Maroun Al-Ras, triggering criticism from Lebanese citizens and political leaders who are against Tehran’s influence in the country. mitigate such threats, the Iranian regime has recently been tightening its grip on its allies. ALI LARIJANI VISITS NEW GOVERNMENT IN BEIRUT

An Iraqi antigovernment protester lifts a banner depicting the new Prime Minister-designate Mohammad Allawi with the inscription “rejected”, during a student demonstration in the southern city of Nasiriyah, on February 2020 ,6. (Getty)

by Ali El Shamy It has been over a month since the Islamic Republic was dealt with the huge blow of losing its second most powerful figure. While Tehran has vowed to avenge Soleimani’s assassination, its threats have been receding as the reality of the risks associated with retaliatory acts became apparent. Thus far, this year has not been a good one so far for the Iranian regime, not only have they lost a vital military commander, increasing sanctions from the US has severely weakened it both domestically and regionally. As it stands, protestors are flooding the streets in Beirut, Baghdad, and Tehran which signals that the regime might be losing control both of its own people and of the governments that make up its regional allies. To

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After about three months of continuing protests, Lebanon finally formed a new government with Hassan Diab as the successor for outgoing Prime Minister Saad Hariri. However, this new government will likely face the same problems as the first one. Like its predecessor, this current government will not likely challenge the authority of Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon. This will not satisfy the protestors who after the resignation of Hariri, chanted “Everyone means everyone” a clear reference to everyone who holds authority in the country including Hassan Nasrallah and his forces. The current economic crisis has also put the new government in a precarious position, in the past whenever Lebanon faced looming economic difficulties foreign powers such as the Arab Gulf states, or the US would provide the government bailout packages which would buy the government more periods of relative stability. The most famous example of this was after the 2006 Israel–Hezbollah War when the Gulf states provided Lebanon with funds to rebuild the war-torn country. However, this time the Gulf states (with the exception of Qatar) have stated that they will not be aiding a Hezbollah backed government. The US and EU have also had their own separate sentiments towards providing loans to the new government, and recent actions on the government’s part have further soured the international community’s feelings towards it. Two major events in Lebanon this week have indicated that Tehran is still an influential foreign power in Beirut. First and foremost, there was Ali Larijani’s, the Iranian Speaker of Parliament, meeting with the

over story

new Prime Minister in Beirut. This was significant because Larijani is the first foreign official to visit Lebanon since it formed its new government. Furthermore, in his visit, Larijani also met with Lebanese President Michel Aoun and expressed how Tehran could help Lebanon develop its engineering capabilities to resolve its power problems. He also expressed

If Allawi becomes Prime Minister, then the Islamic Republic will expect it to act on its behest, this was made evident in Mousavi’s statement which clearly indicated that the regime expects Allawi to expel US forces from Iraq.

the importance of parliamentary cooperation between both governments and also handed Aoun a letter from Rouhani stating that he seeks an expansion of the ties that already exist between both governments. Additionally, Hezbollah did another provoking move this week as it unveiled a statue of Qassem Soleimani in Maroun Al-Ras, triggering criticism from Lebanese citizens and political leaders who are against Tehran’s influence in the country. In response to the unveiling, May Chidiac Former Minister of Administrative Reform angrily tweeted “Are we in Lebanon or Iran? Unveiling a statue of #Soleimani & naming an avenue after #Khomeini proves that Hezbollah is an arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards & a subsidiary of Vilayat Faqih!” These two events will not likely bode well with the US government, which has been at odds with the Islamic Republic and its regional activities. IRAN OFFERS SUPPORT FOR NEW IRAQI GOVERNMENT Baghdad has been facing a similar crisis to that of Beirut. Since October of last year, Iraqis have taken to streets protesting against government corruption,

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Iraq’s former communications minister Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi speaks after assigned by Iraq’s president Barham Salih to form a new government, in Baghdad, Iraq on .2020 ,1 February )Getty(

Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab (R) meets with Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani at the Government headquarters in the Lebanese capital Beirut, on February 2020 ,17. (Getty)

unemployment and foreign intervention of domestic affairs. One of the significant elements of this demonstration is how openly anti-Tehran the protestors are, while anti-Islamic Republic sentiment is not new in Iraq this is the first time since that Iraqis are expressing anger towards the Islamic Republic’s influence in their domestic affairs. Photos and videos of Iraqis burning Iranian flags made headlines across the globe, things came to a head in late November/early December when anti-government protestors in Najaf, southern Iraq set fire to the Iranian consulate twice in one week chanting “Iran out of Iraq”. The protests caused Adil Abdul-Mahdi to resign from his position as Prime Minister, while former Minister of Communications Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi has been chosen as the new Prime Minister-designate. Iran has been quick to welcome Allawi’s appointment, as Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi was one of the first foreign officials to voice approval for Allawi’s new position. Nevertheless, Alllawi still faces a major uphill battle of winning a vote of confidence from parliament after he appoints ministers and forms a new government. Thus far,

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many factions within the Council of Representatives have indicated that they are not supportive of Allawi, so far only the Fatah and Sairoon alliance have voiced support for Allawi, the former bloc is well known for its pro-Tehran stances. To secure premiership, Allawi will need support from other blocs particularly Sunni and Kurdish blocs. If Allawi becomes Prime Minister, then the Islamic Republic will expect it to act on its behest, this was made evident in Mousavi’s statement which clearly indicated that the regime expects Allawi to expel US forces from Iraq. PROTESTORS CARRY ON Citizens from both Lebanon and Iraq have made it evident that they are no longer going to tolerate foreign intervention in their country’s policies. As long as proxies for foreign governments remain in power in Iraq and Lebanon, then protests in the street will likely continue. As it stands, things seem bleak for the people of both Iraq and Lebanon, and while new governments are forming in both states the ongoing protests will most likely render these governments impotent.

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Will Anyone Benefit from UK’s New Immigration Policy? A Political Initiative Disguised as an Economic One by Yasmine El-Geressi The UK Government has announced its postBrexit “points-based immigration system”. The new system will keep the UK open to highly skilled workers from anywhere in the world,

but will close the door on “low-skilled workers” once the freedom of movement for migrants from the -27member bloc ends in January 2021. The government says that this will allow more talented people in while reducing total numbers. To be eligible to apply to come to

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the UK, over-seas potential incomers will be ranked according to criteria that requires them to secure 70 pounds, and for that they will require a job offer (20 points), be applying for a skilled job (20 points), be able to speak English (10 points) and – in most cases – be enjoying a salary of 25,600£ or above (20 points). Exceptions to the threshold will only be made for people with PhDs and those on the “shortage occupation list”. Business groups warned that major industries that have benefited hugely from EU free movement, such as the construction, hospitality and social care sectors, would face a shortage of vital workers, including small businesses that power the UK economy. Many have also criticised the new policy for measuring the contributions people make to society and the economy merely by how much they are paid.

Immigration and border control signs at Edinburgh Airport on February 2014 ,10 in Edinburgh, Scotland. (Getty)

The polls show that a majority want immigration cut, and everything this week’s plan shows is that it intended to be another “job done” moment for the Tories, just like Boris Johnson’s election campaign, and Brexit itself.

are concerned that these proposals from the Government will not meet the health and care needs of the population. The national farmers’ union president Minette Batters expressed ‘serious concerns’ about the Government’s failure to recognize British food and farming’s needs. Mark Harrison, of the Food and Drink BOSSES AND UNIONS WARN OF Federa-tion (FDF), raised concerns about STAFF SHORTAGES bakers, meat processors and workers producing food like cheese and pasta not qualifying under Businesses welcomed the removal of a cap on the new regime. Adam Marshall, director migrant numbers, the opening up of routes or general of the British Chamber of Commerce, skilled workers and the lowering of the 30,000£ said the application process needed to be salary threshold initially proposed. But they “radically simplified” if small and medium-size worry about shortages in major industries. The businesses were to navigate the sys-tem. The unemployment rate is just %3.8 and there are Institute of Directors said it was concerned the more than 800,000 unfilled vacancies, 100,000 UK’s “economic dynamism” would be harmed of which are in the NHS. Businesses and public while the CBI said the system would need to services worry about cutting off the flow of be flexible to keep pace with changes in the job lower-skilled European migrants at a time of market. what looks something like full employment. The IPPR think tank reckons that %66 of the current Labour also criticized the plan, with Shadow EU workers in health and social care, %85 in Home Secretary Diane Abbott saying it will hotels and hospitality, %90 in the transport and need so many exemptions that changes are storage sector and %59 in construction, would “meaningless”. Liberal Democrat home affairs be ineligible for visas under the new system, spokeswoman Christine Jardine said the delivering a “shock” to key sectors of the proposals were based on “xenophobia” and not economy. the “social and economic needs of our country”. Unions said the care system would be “on its knees” should the policy be introducing without further reductions in the minimum salary, with Unison assistant general secretary Christina McAnea saying that plans would “spell absolute disaster for the care sector.” The chief executive and general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing, Dame Donna Kinnair, said: “We

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ARE EONOMICALLY INACTIVE PEOPLE THE ANSWER TO SHORTAGES The government hopes to encourage British people back into the labour market to fill in staff shortage gaps. Priti Pa-tel, the home secretary, argues that “we have over 8.45m people in the UK aged between 16 and 64 who are eco-

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nomically inactive”. She was responding as sectors from care homes to farming warned they would face difficultly recruiting. But official figures from the Office for National Statistics show that the 8.5 million 16 to 64 year olds cur-rently not seeking work include around 2.3 million students and 2.1 million long-term sick, as well as more than 1.1 million who are retired and 1.9 million who are looking after their family or home. Less than 1.9 million of the total were recorded as wanting a job. The home secretary accepted that her own parents – who set up a chain of newsagents after arriving in the UK in the 1960s – would not have been allowed into the UK under her new rules, though she suggested that they might instead have qualified under arrangements for refugees, having faced persecution in Uganda. Frances O’Grady, the general secretary of the TUC, said it was “not credible” for ministers to expect millions of pen-sioners, students and carers to enter the workforce. “Precarious youth and seasonal visas aren’t the answer either,” she said. “The government’s plans will make it easier for bad bosses to exploit migrant workers and

The governing approach in the new plan appears to be aimed at scoring points with voters who made it clear that the primary takeaway from Brexit was the need for strict immigration controls, rather than trying to solve legitimate labour market issues that face businesses and domestic or overseas workers.

drive down pay and conditions for everyone.” Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, said: “Priti Patel is clearly clueless about the labour market. Not only has she unveiled an immigration policy that potentially devastates our social care sector – detrimentally impacting on some of the most vulnerable in society – she’s also justifying it by saying that those who are carers, sick or re-tired should take up these jobs.” Luke Davis, an academic researcher at UCL, wrote that these new toughened immigration laws will add more un-skilled and poorly paid jobs to the already high number of job vacancies in the UK, and that it is unlikely to solve the more pressing problem of in-work poverty, poor

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Home Secretary Priti Patel.

wage growth and precarious employment.

A POLITICAL INITIATIVE DISGUISED AS AN ECONOMIC ONE So if the new immigration policy make life harder for businesses, public services or workers, who is it designed to benefit? Britain’s departure from freedom of movement mean that new immigration rules are needed. But the governing approach in the new plan appears to be aimed at scoring points with voters who made it clear that the primary take-away from Brexit was the need for strict immigration controls, rather than trying to solve legitimate labour market issues that face businesses and domestic or overseas workers. The polls show

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Many have also criticised the new policy for measuring the contributions people make to society and the economy merely by how much they are paid. that a majority want immigration cut, and everything this week’s plan shows is that it intended to be another “job done” moment for the Tories, just like Boris Johnson’s election campaign, and Brexit itself.

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Time to Recommit to Syria A Currency Crisis Has Created an Opportunity to Shape the War’s End by Jennifer Cafarella Syria is now nine years into a civil war that frequently promises, but never manages, to wind down. President Bashar al-Assad has retaken much of the country, but broad swaths remain com-bat zones. Just this month, Assad’s forces, with Russia’s backing, advanced in Idlib Province, the opposition stronghold in northwestern Syria, after a nearly ten-monthlong offensive. Since December 2019 ,1, more than 800,000 Syrians have fled their homes.

Assad may have gained territory, but his regime remains deeply fragile, and the regions under its control are unstable and growing more so. This war is not one that Assad can decisively win, even with help from Iran and Russia. The United States must recognize that the conflict in Syria is unlikely to end in the near future. The prospect of more war is devastating, but it means that Syria’s fate is far from decided. Leveraging American diplomatic, economic, and military capabilities, which

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dwarf those of every other actor in Syria, could change the trajectory of the conflict, help contain the humanitarian crisis, and lay important groundwork for an eventual political transition. With so much still at stake, even lim-ited U.S. involvement could make a difference.

THE REGIME’S HIGH-WATER MARK Assad cobbled his forces together with help from Iran and Russia. But the coalition’s military is overextended. Damascus and its partners gambled that by stretching a thin layer of control over as much terrain as possible, they could convince the international community to accept a regime “victory.” In fact, the coalition hoped that other countries would help it consolidate its power by invest-ing in reconstruction projects that could repay Iran and Russia and finance the corrupt patronage system through which Assad rules. The plan nearly worked. By late 2018, the Syrian regime had advanced far enough that some countries began to reconsider their opposition to Assad. In perhaps its most undervalued decision in the region, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump held the line. It refused to concede to a false regime victory and instead added sanctions on Damascus and refocused the West’s attention on a diplomatic process aimed at reaching a political settlement that would hold Assad’s regime to account and deny it reconstruction funds. Stubbornness bought important time. Syrian girls pose for a photograph against a bullet-riddled wall in the rebel-held village of Kafr Ghan, in the northern countryside of Aleppo, on August ,28 2017. (Getty)

The fragility of the regime’s control is increasingly apparent. In the southern province of Daraa, where Syria’s original 2011 revolution was born, a new uprising has begun. Sustained protests have sent a clear message that Assad has failed to break his opponents’ will. Insurgents have re-sumed attacking positions held by Assad, Iran, and Russia at levels approaching those of 2011. For the first time in years, the attacks have spread to the Syrian capital in Damascus and to parts of the surrounding Rif Damascus region. Meanwhile, ISIS is quickly resurging in regimeheld cen-tral Syria. The group has assaulted vital oil infrastructure and temporarily seized facilities. Such activity suggests major ISIS attacks are still to come. Assad and his backers have no serious answer to this rising instability. Instead, they continue to expand their already thinly controlled territory. Through their offensive in Idlib, regime forces have seized three important cities and gained full control of the Damascus–Aleppo highway. But the process has been grinding and costly even with the support of Russian airpower and proxy units: the Assad regime has taken

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The United States has a real opportunity to change the course of the brutal Syrian war and, potentially, to shape its endgame. high casualties and has had to repeatedly mobilize new conscripts. Northeastern Syria has become another drain on the pro-regime coalition’s assets. The United States scaled back its forces in the area in October 2019, allowing Turkey to surge over the Syrian border. In order to gain leverage over Turkey, Russian and Syrian regime forces moved in and es-tablished a new military presence in the northeast, further stretching proregime resources. Russia’s approach reflects its limits. Russian airpower is effective at destroying hospitals and de-populating cities, but these tactics will not defeat an insurgency. Most Russian ground forces in Syria are military police whose primary job is restoring basic law and order. Counterinsurgents, by contrast, must protect civilians while fighting complex battles to defeat in-surgents, often in urban areas. Moreover, Russia’s military police lack credibility among Syrians, who have seen Assad undermine reconciliation deals that Russia has brokered in the past.

FINANCIAL COLLAPSE Not only has the pro-regime military effort likely reached its peak, but the Syrian economy is collapsing. The Syrian pound fell dramatically from a 2014 rate of roughly 179 to the dollar to more than 1,000 to the dollar by late January. The sharp decline is partly the result of an economic col-lapse in neighboring Lebanon and partly a function of U.S. sanctions on Iran. The latter have forced Iran to cancel Syria’s credit line and to cut back on oil transfers to the regime. Assad is struggling to pay warlords and finance military campaigns at a time when the insurgents are imposing ever greater costs. Food and fuel prices have risen sharply, sparking protests against the government’s

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economic policies; although still small in loyalist areas, these protests seem likely to grow. Assad is desperately attempting to head off the deepening economic crisis, in part by seiz-ing the financial assets of business leaders close to the regime. These seizures threaten to alienate loyalists and undermine local patronage structures in unstable regions. Syria’s economic situation is going to get worse. In December, the U.S. Congress authorized sweeping sanctions against any entity providing financial, military, or technological support to As-sad’s government, his military, or Iranian and Russian entities in Syria. The restrictions are poten-tially game changing. The Trump administration supported the legislation and intends to move for-ward. By June 2020, the Treasury Department must evaluate whether Syria’s central bank is com-plicit in money laundering, in which case a cascade of sanctions will go into effect this summer. At a minimum, those sanctions would severely restrict the regime’s resources, likely forcing it to sus-pend its military offensives and deepening instability in regime-controlled areas. The United States hopes that economic pressure will compel Assad to submit to negotiations. Yet chances of a far-reaching settlement are slim. Assad and his backers may attempt to grant Trump a superficial deal in return for sanctions relief, but such a gamble is unlikely to work. Once sanctions are implemented, Trump has the authority to unilaterally lift them if he

Leveraging American diplomatic, economic, and military capabilities, which dwarf those of every other actor in Syria, could change the trajectory of the conflict, help contain the humanitarian crisis, and lay important groundwork for an eventual political transition.

determines that the regime and its allies have ceased human rights violations and taken “verifiable steps to establish accounta-bility for war crimes.” This bar is extremely high and would be difficult to bypass. The existing diplomatic stalemate will likely continue.

THE WAR TO COME The economic collapse of regime-held Syria would perpetuate and expand Syria’s wider, multisid-ed war. Numerous actors stand poised to take advantage of any shift in the balance of power within the country, and underlying sociocultural rifts will shape the war’s evolution: ISIS and al Qaeda extremism continue to drive long-term conflict, and Iran is sowing new social divisions by attempting to convert Syrians to Shiism and to teach them Farsi in parts of southern and east-ern Syria. Kurdish forces in the northeast are locked in a ferocious struggle with Turkey, which has invaded and effectively annexed large parts of the border region and intends to resettle one million Arab refugees there. The Kurdish forces are fighting back as an insurgency. This conflict is partly cultural: both the Kurdish forces and Turkey are trying to transform the parts of Syrian society that are under their influence in ways that will drive long-term instability even if the immediate fighting stops.

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Destroyed vehicles are seen in the final ISIS encampment on March 2019 ,24 in Baghouz, Syria. (Getty)

ISIS is quickly resurging in regimeheld central Syria. The group has assaulted vital oil infrastruc-ture and temporarily seized facilities. Such activity suggests major ISIS attacks are still to come. current presence is insufficient. U.S. troops continue to help Kurdish forces to dis-rupt ISIS networks, and U.S. strikes continue to disrupt al Qaeda attack cells. But current troop levels won’t be enough to defeat the ISIS insurgency or reverse al Qaeda’s rise in Syria, much less accomplish wider goals, such as stabilizing the Kurdish-dominated northeast or supporting Turkish efforts to contain the humanitarian crisis in the northwest.

As the pro-regime military effort wanes, Turkey’s leverage in Syria will increase. Turkey has al-ready deployed significant reinforcements to Idlib to prevent and possibly reverse pro-regime gains. And it has retaliated for multiple Syrian regime attacks on its soldiers and vowed to respond by “any means necessary” to future incidents. Russia and Turkey will attempt to de-escalate, but the more the pro-regime war effort suffers under economic pressure, the less incentive Turkey will have to grant concessions. This change in the power balance could itself drive more conflict. ISIS and al Qaeda are also well positioned to exploit Assad’s weakness. ISIS is already surging in regimeheld Syria and expanding its campaign in Kurdishheld areas, where the U.S. drawdown has weakened security. Meanwhile, al Qaeda-linked groups have an army of approximately 20,000 fighters in Idlib, where they are making a substantial profit. Al Qaeda will remain a powerful in-surgency even if Idlib falls.

SHAPING THE ENDGAME The United States does not need a massive military force in Syria to shape the war’s trajectory, but its

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The collapse of the Syrian economy and growing discontent among Assad loyalists—as well as a Turkish military intervention that has pro-regime forces badly overstretched—have created an opening. Renewed commitment to Syria will be uncomfortable, given Americans’ concerns about open-ended conflicts and coming just five months after the Trump administration’s decision to shift most U.S. troops in Syria across the border to Iraq. But the United States must act. The U.S. troops that were redeployed to Iraq should be returned to Syria’s northeastern region. Turkey’s efforts to repel Assad’s forces and protect civilians in northwestern Syria deserve Ameri-can support. But U.S. efforts are best concentrated in the northeast. In close coordination with its allies, the United States should work to stabilize the region and to assist reconstruction, develop-ment, and resettlement efforts. Syria’s northeast has a relatively strong economy compared with economic conditions in regime-controlled areas, and focused investment will help establish it as a model of safety, prosperity, and good governance—a credible alternative to Assad that could help pave the way for a political transition. The United States has a real opportunity to change the course of the brutal Syrian war and, potentially, to shape its endgame. This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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The Coronavirus Is a Stress Test for Xi Jinping Who Is at Fault in Spain’s Catalan Crisis? by Elizabeth Economy On February 4, Cui Tiankai, China’s ambassador to the United States, prepared to address an audience of students, scholars, and businesspeople in San Diego, California. Before the ambassador could speak, a young Chinese man stood up and yelled, “Xi Jinping,

step down!” Security quickly whisked the man away, and the event went on. A handful of similar calls for the resignation of Chinese President Xi Jinping have popped up on the Chinese Web in recent weeks, from citizens who accuse the country’s leadership of bungling the

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state’s response to the deadly coronavirus that has spread throughout the country. Like the protester in San Diego these critical posts have disappeared almost immediately. The coronavirus outbreak is on track to become the worst humanitarian and economic crisis of Xi’s tenure, but the Chinese president is certainly not likely to resign. In fact, Xi has spent seven years in power building a political system designed to withstand just such a crisis. He has centralized authority in his own hands, enhanced top-down state control, limited the free flow of information within and across the country’s borders, and adopted an assertive foreign policy designed to cajole and coerce other countries into doing as China says. For now, at least, the epidemic has brought into sharp relief the extent of Xi’s power. But the very existence of the crisis points to gaping contradictions and weaknesses at the heart of his regime. The longer Beijing takes to contain the virus, the wider and more consequential those cracks will become.

CONTAIN AND CONTROL

Chinese travellers wear protective masks as they arrive to board trains at Beijing Railway station before the annual Spring Festival on January 2020 ,21 in Beijing, China. (Getty)

After initially dragging its feet, Beijing has undertaken a herculean effort to contain the coronavirus. The Chinese Communist Party has effectively quarantined entire provinces with a total population exceeding 100 million. It has ordered factories that manufacture face masks into overdrive. Perhaps most impressive, it has constructed massive makeshift hospitals and quarantine centers in a few short weeks. The scale and speed of these measures are a testament to the highly centralized system and top-down approach to policy design and implementation that the CCP has perfected under Xi and that gives it great leeway to mobilize vast resources in times of crisis. All the while, Chinese officials have taken care to muzzle critics and control public narratives about the outbreak. These measures, too, are a hallmark of Xi’s China: long before the current crisis, the president built a mighty censorship apparatus to control the flow of information in the country. Now, seasoned censors with years of practice swiftly delete any online posts about the virus that they deem too critical or otherwise objectionable. In some cases, local security forces track down and

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A handful of similar calls for the resignation of Chinese President Xi Jinping have popped up on the Chinese Web in recent weeks, from citizens who accuse the country’s leadership of bungling the state’s response to the deadly coronavirus that has spread throughout the country. detain the posts’ authors. Beijing has also worked hard to bring the international community into line. Concerned lest the epidemic damage China’s international standing, Beijing has responded to global anxieties with its trademark mix of diplomatic confidence and coercion. Chinese diplomats insist that the country is rising to the challenge in a transparent manner, sharing information with other governments, and fighting the virus as much for the sake of the international community as in its own interest. Yet they are quick to condemn any steps foreign governments take that might signal a lack of confidence in Beijing. When Indonesia announced plans to restrict food imports from China, for instance, Beijing’s ambassador in Jakarta issued a subtle threat, warning of a “negative impact.” For the most part, Chinese displeasure has not kept countries from canceling flights or closing their borders. Some, however, have placed their political fates in Xi’s hands. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, for example, refused to evacuate his citizens from Wuhan, and even traveled to China to meet with Xi, who lauded him for being “a friend in need.” Even the World Health Organization has been fulsome in its praise of Beijing’s handling of the crisis. The WHO’s leadership refused to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern until the last possible moment, and even then, WHO Director General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus urged other countries not to impose travel bans or take other drastic measures that would isolate China. And at Beijing’s direction, the WHO has refused to allow Taiwan to participate directly in briefings on

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the coronavirus, notwithstanding calls from other countries to make an exception for the island nation (which is not a formal WHO member) given the gravity of the epidemic.

PUBLIC HEALTH WITH CHINESE CHARACTERISTICS Xi’s system of governance has protected him from significant political fallout from the epidemic but has also created the very conditions that allowed the virus to spread so fast in the first place. Because the Chinese state apparatus is so centralized, information pools around bottlenecks and often fails to reach those who need it most. The mayor of Wuhan noted in a televised interview in late January that he passed information regarding the coronavirus to the relevant authorities early on, but he was not authorized to release that information to the public. Others were no more able to voice their concerns without fear of reprisal. When -34year old Dr. Li Wenliang first raised the alarm about the virus in a small online chat group in late December, he was detained and forced to sign a statement disavowing his comments. His death from the virus on February 7 provoked an outpouring of grief and anger, as well as calls for freedom of speech across the Chinese Web, with the news of Li’s demise garnering more than 1.5 billion views on the social media platform Weibo. Hoping to allay the public’s anger, Beijing responded by promising to send a team from the CCP’s anti-corruption body to investigate the local government’s treatment of Li. The state’s attempt to silence Li and other doctors also drew criticism from a high-ranking judge, who, in a rare public rebuke, said that citizens would have benefited from early warnings about the virus. But Beijing remains as committed to stemming the free flow of information as it is determined to fight the actual virus, even when those priorities are in clear conflict. Officials have repeatedly threatened those who spread unauthorized information, leaving the media, nongovernmental organizations, and individual citizens little space to provide real-time feedback and on-the-ground updates. In the absence of reliable and timely information, Chinese people are left to organize on their own, creating maps

that track the virus’ path and developing trusted platforms for citizens to access verified information. Online, some citizens engage in fierce debates over how to make sense of the contradictory information about the virus and the government’s response. The distribution of medical supplies and financial support, too, has suffered as a result of Beijing’s control complex. Officials have designated only a few central government–supported charity organizations to receive and distribute public donations. Understaffed and overwhelmed, the distribution centers have become yet another target of public ire for their inability to deliver the donations to hospitals and medical workers in desperate need of supplies. Equally troubling, Beijing’s determination to control the flow of information between China and the rest of the world led it to reject several offers by the international community to send infectious disease experts to help fight the virus’s spread; and even after finally accepting an offer of help from the WHO on January 28, it took Beijing nearly two weeks to make good on the deal. Such behavior threatens the

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Cui Tiankai, Chinas Ambassador to the US participates in the Plenary Session of the US-China Consultation on People-to-People Exchange during the seventh US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue at the US State Department in Washington DC, June 2015 ,24. (Getty)

Beijing has already decided whom to blame officially for the epidemic: inept local authorities in the city of Wuhan—the epicenter of the outbreak—whose inaction allowed the virus to spread. Whether such scapegoating will be enough to prevent the Chinese people from turning their anger toward Xi Jinping and other top leaders will depend in large part on how long the crisis lasts.

welfare of not only Chinese citizens but also people around the world.

BLAME GAME Beijing has already decided whom to blame officially for the epidemic: inept local authorities in the city of Wuhan—the epicenter of the outbreak—whose inaction allowed the virus to spread. Whether such scapegoating will be enough to prevent the Chinese people from turning their anger toward Xi Jinping and other top leaders will depend in large part on how long the crisis lasts. For now, the CCP can point to the new hospitals and quarantine centers it has built and extol doctors and nurses while using local government officials as the fall guys. But as the death toll rises and costs mount, the government may struggle to deflect blame that may damage Xi’s credibility and that of the party. That the president has kept a relatively low profile throughout the crisis is telling. One would have expected that “Xi Dada,” who has assumed the Mao-era appellation of “People’s

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Leader,” would take center stage in Beijing’s public response to the virus. Yet despite state media reports emphasizing the president’s role as an authoritative commander in chief, Xi has largely sought to lead from behind, leaving it to Premier Li Keqiang and Vice Premier Sun Chunlan to inspect hospitals and comfort patients in Wuhan. For Xi, every layer of party bureaucracy provides a buffer between himself and the crisis on the ground. Likewise, Xi appears keen on preempting a deeper crisis of public confidence. In a speech last week, he called for initial policy reforms, including an improved crisis management system and the closure of wet markets, the open-air stalls for wildlife trade that were the original source of the current outbreak. But such actions are limited in scope and imagination, falling well within Xi’s current governance model. What most Chinese will desire instead is what citizens anywhere would want: an honest accounting for what transpired, changes that will ensure it never happens again, and a leader with the integrity to say, “The buck stops here.” Unfortunately, the history of Chinese politics suggests that they are unlikely to get what they want. This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

ulture

Animating Egypt How One Saudi Producer Spent the last 20 Years Reshaping the Industry by Yasmine El-Geressi Egypt was the first in the Arab world and Africa to establish an animation production. In 1934, the pioneering brothers Solomon, David and Frankel Herschel (recent immigrants from Soviet Belarus) who, despite their limited technical capabilities and resources, introduced Egypt’s answer to Disney’s Micky Mouse, Mish-Mish Effendi, in their film Nothing to Do. “David drew thousands of pictures, and Shlomo invented a device that enabled them to screen films to viewers without a special hall, it was something of a premature television set, made of a box, celluloid film, and a lantern to reflect the shots on a small screen. It also included a portable speaker that played the sound.” Nephew Isaac Rosenblum recalls, in the documentary Bukra Fil MishMish. Mish-Mish Effendi became a national star and was able to compete globally. The cartoon would even go on to include legends of the era, such as the Lebanese singer Sabah and Egyptian bellydancer Tahiya Karioka. Egyptian companies hired the Frenkel brothers to produce commercials with the character, the government used him for propaganda, the ministry of agriculture purchased a tutorial film in which Mish-Mish teaches people how to cope with cotton crop parasites. Just before World War II, the ministry of defense asked for a film calling the Egyptians to strengthen the army. The Frenkel brothers were even awarded a national medal. Animation continued to flourish in Egypt in the 1960s, when Ali and Husam Muhib, arts graduates leading a group of fellow illustrators and filmmakers, began producing a few low-budget films before taking charge of the animation department in the newly established Egyptian television. The main obstacle facing the Mohib brothers was the lack of trained artists, which forced them to do their best to train some of those who would

later become animation professors at the Higher Film Institute and the Faculty of Fine Arts. In 1962 the Mohib brothers made The White Line, their first long film which, produced by Egyptian Television, was a mix of live action and animation techniques, as well as the first Arabiclanguage animation series, the thirty-episode Mishgias Sawah in 1979. The brothers became the most influential figures in animation production until the 1980s, though most of their work remained limited to advertising and propaganda with a few short films, animated series and songs. As Egypt’s animation facilities expanded more diverse work had a chance to thrive – such as Zeinab Zamzam’s Islamic-themed clay animation film using old-fashioned Claymation techniques (A Terra-cotta Dream, 1997;

Saudi Producer Abbas Alabbas (Supplied)

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Cast of the animated movie The Knight and the Princess (Supplied)

Open Your Eyes, 2000). Egypt witnessed an expansion of animation facilities during the 1990s and 2000s. In addition to programs at universities, such as the one started by Ghazala at Minya University, there are at least 10 significant animation studios—including Abou El Nasr’s Cairo Cartoon Studio and Zamzam’s Zamzam Media—operating and producing animations for television, commercials, and the occasional short film. Much of this material is shown in other parts of the Arab world, and some are co-productions with Gulf states. (Historical Dictionary of Middle Eastern Cinema, 2010) In 2010 Mohamed Ghazala won the Animation Prize at the African Movie Academy Awards in Lagos, Nigeria. His was his country’s only representation in the entire competition, a three-minute cartoon entitled Honayn’s Shoe. Given this long and rich heritage, the scarcity of animation films produced, as well as homegrown animators in Egypt is surprising. But one man is on a mission to animate Egypt and the Arab world. After 20 epic years in the making, Saudi film producer Abbas AlAbbas premiered Egypt’s first animated feature film, and the first ever animated film created exclusively by Arab talents “The Knight and The Princess” at the ElGouna Festival in September last year. “Producing an animated feature film

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Given this long and rich heritage, the scarcity of animation films produced, as well as homegrown animators in Egypt is surprising. But one man is on a mission to animate Egypt and the Arab world. for any first time producer is not an easy task, almost impossible if your production cast also have not gone through such production previously.” he told Majalla. Yet, with a “strong heart and great passion”, Alabbas was able to withstand substantial challenges as the horizon of his wildly ambitions vision stretched for two decades until he was able to turn what seemed like a distant dream into a colorful reality. The seeds for what quickly became Alabbas’s “lifetime goal” were sown when he as studying in America for his degree in Industrial Engineering and Engineering

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Administration and his son was almost 5 years old. Alabbas noticed the increasing influence effect cartoons had on the minds of children during their formative years. One particular cartoon, He-Man, ‘the most powerful man in the universe’ who goes against evil forces to save the planet, fascinated his son and he began to idolise the leading character. Although cartoons are entertainment, they also act as powerful education platform education platform for children who often absorb a lot from their favorite cartoons – they learn about their own culture, about values and mortality in their society, and about what makes a character a good or bad person. As such, Alabbas wanted the stories that would shape his son’s childhood memories to be embedded with aspects of Arab culture that are in sync with his real environments. “I wanted him to see other animation stories and heroes from our culture so I decided to go to Egypt to see what is available for my son. I was surprised that there were absolutely none. I found it frustrating and appalling that we don›t have anything for our children to see their culture, their heroes and themselves represented in the series they watch,” Alabbas explains. Armed with a mission to introduce young Arabs to key facets of their culture and identifiable characters to which they can look up to, but not much else, Alabbas knew he had to start somewhere, so he spoke to his adviser at George Washington University about his newly found aspiration and he agreed to give him the opportunity to take a self-study research course in amination which a friend of his working in the animation business would grade. With his unmistakable mix of unbridled enthusiasm and serious talent, Alabbas graduated with a 4.0 out of 4.0 GPA.

In 1934, the pioneering brothers Solomon, David and Frankel Herschel (recent immigrants from Soviet Belarus) who, despite their limited technical capabilities and resources, introduced Egypt’s answer to Disney’s Micky Mouse, Mish-Mish Effendi.

“After graduation I went to Egypt and established the Alsahar Animation Company. I spent two years training and building experience for the animators before we got our first series for the Arab Radio and Television kids channel. We then made animated series for Egyptian, Saudi and Qatari television, the MBC network, and many others. But all the series were made to the tune of the TV channel producers who dictate the story, the production timeline and the budget,” Alabbas recalls. After learning some hard lessons about the animation industry, in 1998, Alabbas decided it was time to take things to new heights. “We decided we will venture to make the first animated feature made entirely by Arab talents,” he said. First, he began searching for a riveting story from Arab history that revolves around a hero that could “speak to a young generation” and would appeal to children’s appetite for adventure and. When Alabbas and his team came across the story of 7th century Iconic Arab warrior Mohammed Bin Alkassem, who’s story is packed with

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The Knight and the Princess film poster (Supplied)

Mish Mish Effendi, an Egyptian cartoon hero.

all the components of animated classics – a hero, pirates, a love story, villains and a great adventure -they knew immediately that they had uncovered a gem. “The story follows the amazing journey of a -15year-old knight who saves women and children from pirates on the north Indian shores, finds his love and decides to free Sind from the tyrant king Daher.” They then brought in one of the country’s best scriptwriters and directors, Basheer Eldeek, and the late cartoonist Mustafa Hussein. Next, Egyptian stars from past and present, such as Mohamed Henedy, Maged ElKedwany, Medhat Saleh, Donia Samir Ghanem, Amina Rizk, and Ghassan Matar, recorded the voice overs for the movie’s characters. For an indie studio, this was a huge expense. When it came to the production stage of the movie, the budding producer found himself trapped between the paucity of talented home grown animators and a lack of funding. He quickly realised that if he wanted to dream big, he would have to think ever bigger, and this would require redesigning the landscape of the industry. “We tried to get financing for our project but no one was ready to invest money in an industry that is dominated worldwide by Disney, but I was not ready to give up and took the decision to do it slowly but surely. We continued with the production of the film while also doing working on animated series for TV channels to help us finance the feature film production. When we would gather enough funds we would complete a minute or so. 2D animation is extremely costly. A second has between 25 and 25 frames and if there are numerous backgrounds that could add up to 100 different drawings per second,” the Saudi producer said. Alabbas explains that on top of having to stop production whenever they would run out of money, they also had to

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After learning some hard lessons about the animation industry, in 1998, Alabbas decided it was time to take things to new heights. “We decided we will venture to make the first animated feature made entirely by Arab talents,” he said. train and develop animators throughout decades. “Animation production is costly and time consuming by the nature of the medium, it needs a strong heart and great passion to risk your time and money. Working with Arab staff increases the risk of trial and error at every step of the production hence the overall budget expense and the many unmet deadlines. We had an advantage, we had a dream, dreams don’t measure costs require passion to make them come true.” The 20 years Alabass invested – on and off- were well spent. Following its world premiere at ElGouna festival last year, the film won major plaudits. “We are proud to showcase the first Egyptian animated feature film created by an Arab crew, whose work is on par with prominent animated films from around the world. The film not only represents a significant milestone for the Arab film industry, but also helps it take crucial steps towards expanding its horizons through a genre that embodies creativity, imagination and talent in a brand new light in the region,” commented Intishal Al Timimi, director of El Gouna Film Festival. The film also made its way to the 9th Malmo Arab Film Festival in Sweden last October. “The Knight and the Princess” has been chosen to open the 19th edition of Meknes International Animated Film festival in Morocco between February 20 and March 2. The festival, which is organised by the Aicha Foundation in partnership with the French Institute of Meknes, is the biggest animation film festival in the region, attended by thousands of passionate animated film fans from around the world. In its 19th edition, the festival has chosen Egypt as it’s guest of honor as it celebrates the 85th anniversary of the release of the first Egyptian and African animation film Mish-Mish Effendi, in the presence of over 30,000 animation film enthusiasts. I hope that honoring Egypt’s illustrious animation history by celebrating another momentous milestone in the industry will inspire more young people in the region to look to people like AlAbbas who are trailblazing a path for other aspiring animators and creatives in the region and believe that no dreamer is ever too small and no dream is ever too big.

Parallax Art Fair Brings Artists from Differing Backgrounds Under One Roof From Controversial Social Commentary to Nature Portraits, Parallax Had Something for Everybody by Ali El Shamy First held in 2010, the Parallax Art Fair is an annual art exhibit that prides itself on being run by artists rather than a corporation. Since then, the fair has grown to become one of the most anticipated art events in London, as painters and sculptors from all around the world are invited to display their art pieces to aficionados and potential buyers. This year, I had the pleasure of attending the art fair in Kensington Town Hall (which has been the venue of the event since 2018), where I met a number of talented artists who spoke to me about their work and their journey in becoming artists.

AMY BEAGER PAYS HOMAGE TO LATE DANCER ISADORA DUNCAN One of the first artists I talked to was Amy Beager, who started her career as a fashion designer rather than an artist. Even though she studied art in college, she told me that she eventually made the switch to fashion design and would go on to work for that industry for seven years. While this was a steady job for her, she decided to follow her passion for art. She left her career and started freelancing while she was setting up her art company, and her hard work paid off as she has been

displaying her artwork throughout a number of different galleries for the past year. As the saying goes, fortune favors the brave and although Beager was taking a risk it worked out for her in the end. The art series she displayed was entitled “Mother” which features a number of acrylic and ink paintings that depict major life events from Isadora Duncan’s life. Duncan was a pioneering dancer from the early 20th century who is widely recognized as the “Mother of Modern Dance” and despite enduring many tragic events in her life, she was determined to live her life to the fullest and follow her passions. Beager told me that she finds a lot of inspiration from Duncan’s life and performances, which is why she dedicated an entire art collection to her. Some of the paintings she had on display included Celestial and Dancing Girl. Beager’s work will also be on display at the Roy’s Art Gallery which will be held at the Oxo Tower Wharf in London from 5-2 April.

ESAM HAMZEH USES ART TO OVERCOME TIMES OF TROUBLE Esam Hamzeh is an artist from Homs, Syria. Her talent in art started from a young age as she studied it during her primary school years. However, she abandoned art

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Celestial by Amy Beager

Hansson›s Portiat on Islamist Terrorism

The Dancing Girl by Amy Beager.

to work as a hematologist. She would eventually move to London where she was doing a Ph.D. course. Things seemed to be going well for Hamzeh, but unfortunately, tragedy would strike her life in 2000 when kidney failure caused her to lose two of her kidneys, which meant she had to rely on kidney dialyzes to survive. Her health problems caused her to stop her Ph.D. studies, so in the face of such adversity, she turned to her old passion for art to ease her anguish. Most of her paintings are of nature, buildings and she also has some abstract work in her portfolio. In 2007, she participated in her first art exhibition at St. George’s Hospital in London, and

Amy Beager told me that she finds a lot of inspiration from Isadora Duncan’s life and performances, which is why she dedicated an entire art collection to her. she donated her proceedings to kidney disease research. This year, her work will also be featured in the Chelsea Art Society Exhibition.

IBRAHIM YASSIN BRINGS INK TO LIFE Yassin is a Kurdish artist originally from South Kurdistan but is currently based in Denmark. Like most artists I spoke to, art wasn’t his initial career path, he was in fact a chemistry instructor working at the University of Mosul. However, during those years he pursued art as a hobby and in 1990 displayed some of his work at an exhibition at Mosul University. He moved to Denmark in 1996 and would stop his pastime two years later. In 2013, he would pick up art once again and his determination is strong as he has been continuing painting beautiful portraits for the past seven years.

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Most of his artwork consists of ink paintings, although he has some watercolor works in his portfolio. He also exhibits his Kurdish identity in some of his work, as he incorporates characters and poetry from the Kurdish language into his paintings. This is his first-ever art exhibit in London, and his work will be on display in three other art shows in Denmark, 2 of which will be in Copenhagen and one in Horsens.

MARIANA GUMENIUC’S ETERNAL FLAME OF PASSION Hailing from the Republic of Moldova, Mariana Gumeniuc’s artistic journey started when she was 12 years old when she showed exceptional talent in painting and even started her own painting school at that age. Circumstances forced her to stop pursuing art at the age of 14, but that passion never really went away. When she moved to London, her passion came back with the ferocity of a typhoon as she amazingly painted 75 paintings in the span of fewer than three years. She

eloquently portrayed this everlasting passion in her painting “Eternal Flame” which is a metaphor the flame that remained in her mind even after all those years of not doing any artwork. Some of the art she had on display had some social commentary, for instance in her painting “Behind” she shows a man’s face in front of that of a woman’s to show that even in societies where a man is always at the forefront there is always a woman behind him. Moreover, even though the woman in the painting is behind the man, there is a clear 50/50 split in the space both faces take up, showing her belief in equal rights for both genders. Other paintings are more personal, for instance, “Don’t Let Me Down” symbolizes a time in her life when she was feeling great anguish and stress from the pressures of balancing her work and raising a new child. However, as this painting is made with warm

When Mariana Gumeniuc moved to London, her passion for art came back with the ferocity of a typhoon as she amazingly painted 75 paintings in the span of fewer than three years.

Esam Hamzeh›s Flower Portraits.

Ibrahim Yassin›s Watercolor Painting.

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Eternal Flame by Mariana Gumeniuc.

Behind by Mariana Gumeniac.

colors, she shows that even in times of great strife there is always hope that things will get better soon.

JORGEN HANSSON: NOT AFRAID OF CONTROVERSY The artist from Sweden had one of the most controversial art collections on display: “Tipping Points”, and many of his pieces can be considered offensive to some onlookers. The main idea behind “Tipping Points” was to portray events and phenomenon that in his view changed global sociopolitical landscapes. His most bewildering piece in the collection is an abstract painting that portrays Islamist terrorism, arguably most eye-catching part of the painting is the World Trade

Center being hit by airplanes, the painting also shows Qasem Soleimani’s face with a US flag target painted over him. Further inspection of the painting reveals other examples of Islamist terror, such as convoys carrying the flags of IS. Other paintings include one called “Plastic Ocean” which shows a small portrait of Greta Thunberg and one on the #MeToo Movement. Hansson told me that he felt that he had to choose controversial art pieces so that he could leave a mark on people participating in the exhibition. His other hobbies include novel writing, but he had to abandon the activity in favor of painting two years due to his vertigo making it difficult for him to write. The art show proved to be a great success for Hansson as two other exhibitions showed interest in displaying his art pieces.

EVAN WU SIU PING APPRECIATES SHORT-LIVED BEAUTY One of my favorite art display’s was Evan Wu Siu Ping’s “Revivification”. At first glance, the art pieces seem to show colored paper cut and folded to show butterflies, but upon closer inspection, you can that the paper Evan used actually came from magazines. She did this to make a metaphor comparing the short-lived beauty that is found in both the natural and commercial spheres. Butterflies are colorful, beautiful creatures that have short life spans, similarly magazines are beautifully designed colorful pieces of media that can bring great enjoyment to readers. But like butterflies, magazines have short shelf-lives and are discarded by humans.

A Piece from Evan Wu Siu Ping›s Revivification Collection.

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

Issue 1788- February- 21/02/2020

Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi: Iraqâ€™s New Prime Minister is On a Mission to Curb Corruption

www.majalla.com

ealth

Focus on concentration Here›s What to do When Your Mind Tends to Wander by Harvard Men›s Health Watch

captain of the ship.»

Everyone›s attention can drift at times, like when you lose your concentration for a moment while doing routine tasks. Many people shrug off these lapses in focus as «senior moments,» but they might be related to a vulnerable brain process called executive function. «Your brain›s executive function helps you plan, make decisions, and -- perhaps most important -- pay attention,» says Dr. Joel Salinas, a neurologist with Harvard-affiliated Massachusetts General Hospital. «It acts much like the

A SLOW, GRADUAL DECLINE Your executive function peaks alongside other brain functions in your early 20s and then gradually diminishes over time. Fortunately, the process is quite slow, says Dr. Salinas. Everyone›s brain is wired and programmed differently, and some people struggle with attention more than others. But if you notice any sudden change in your ability to concentrate

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-- for example, if you have a harder time finishing routine tasks and chores, regularly misplace essential items, make more errors than you used to in your day-to-day life, or make more frequent poor decisions -- don›t ignore it. Speak with your doctor, says Dr. Salinas. Such symptoms may be due to an underlying condition, like mild cognitive impairment, or a mood disorder, like depression and anxiety. Declining focus also could result from lifestyle issues that should be addressed, such as stress, fatigue, poor sleep, dehydration, an unhealthy diet, or sedentary behavior. For regular age-related decline in executive function, you can take steps to improve your ability to concentrate. Here are some strategies that Dr. Salinas recommends. Track your lack of attention. Observe situations when you lose focus. For instance, when you read a book passage and feel your attention waning, make a mental note when it happens. «Keeping a tally can help drive your attention, as it teaches you to be more observant when it occurs,» says Dr. Salinas. «Also, plan activities that require less focus during times when you know your attention is at its lowest.» Practice mindfulness meditation. This form of meditation teaches you how to bring your thoughts back to the present when your mind veers off. The practice also helps to manage anxiety and stress, which may contribute to lack of focus, according to a study published in the April 2018 issue of Psychiatry Research. Many yoga studios and community centers offer meditation programs for beginners. Stop distractions. Change items in your living space that grab your attention, such as equipment that produces distracting sounds or lights. Also, turn off notifications on your phone when you need to concentrate, and set up website blockers so you won›t be tempted by the Internet.

Many people shrug off these lapses in focus as «senior moments,» but they might be related to a vulnerable brain process called executive function. Work in blocks of time. Much research has suggested that working in small chunks of time, with rest periods in between, can help with focus, since our attention tends to wane after a certain period. How long that time period lasts depends on the person. Some studies that have looked at work and classroom performance place the range anywhere from 10 minutes to 52 minutes. Experiment with a time frame that works for you. «You should be able to find a range where your attention is at its peak,» says Dr. Salinas. Engage your brain. Do more activities that involve using your executive function skills. «You want to take up something that stimulates and requires mental effort, but not so much that it overwhelms and dissuades you,» says Dr. Salinas. He suggests something that teaches a new skill, such as painting, cooking, dancing, or learning a language. «These require focus and attention, but are set up to show progress and offer encouragement. They can also help reduce stress.» Review your medication. Some drugs, especially those used to treat sleep problems, anxiety, or pain, can make you feel drowsy or fatigued. Note any connection between taking medication and difficulties with attention, and speak with your doctor about amending your dosage or switching medication. Watch caffeine and sugar intake. Sudden spikes and dips in your blood sugar levels can affect attention, says Dr. Salinas. «In general, focusing on eating more fruits, vegetables, and high-fiber foods while avoiding simple sugars can be enough to keep your blood sugar levels more even,» he says. While a small amount of caffeine can give you a short-term mental boost, too much can overstimulate you and make you feel anxious or giddy, and affect your ability to stay focused. Keep track of when and how your attention changes after you drink caffeinated beverages so you can make adjustments to your daily intake. Stay social. Social engagement protects against loneliness, which can lead to depression, anxiety, and stress, all of which can affect attention. «Being more social also helps with focus, since you have to listen to conversations and retain information,» says Dr. Salinas.

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Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi: Iraq’s New Prime Minister is On a Mission to Curb Corruption by Ali El Shamy

down his company in 1997. Needless to say, this incident, as well as the horrors he witnessed during the 1977 Early Life and Education Mohamed Tawfiq Allawi was born on Uprising, did not make him a fan of the June 1954 ,1, in Baghdad. He would Hussein regime. spend his formative years in Iraq’s Shortly after Hussein was toppled in capital city where he would attend 2003, Allawi would make his entry primary, middle and high school. The into Iraqi politics. Ever since Hussein’s University of Baghdad should have reign ended, the Allawi family became been the place of his alma mater, as a staple in Iraqi politics, for instance, this is where he started his degree Eyad Hisham Allawi was the first in architecture. However, the Safar transitional Prime Minister after Uprising in 1977 caused him to cut his Saddam Hussein’s removal and Ali bachelor’s career in Iraq short as he fled Abd El Amir Allawi was the former to neighboring Lebanon. Fortunately, Minister of Commerce, Minister of he was able to finish his degree at Defense and was one of the nominees the American University of Beirut to succeed Prime Minister Adel Abdel and graduated in 1980. Afterward, he Mahdi. migrated to the UK seeking work and From Parliamentarian to Principled freedom of expression. Minister Allawi was first elected as an MP in Entry into Iraqi Politics 2005. He was appointed the Minister Saddam Hussein’s regime would often get in the way of Allawi’s business of Communications twice, once ventures, shortly before fleeing from May 2006 to August 2007, and Baghdad he founded the Tawfiq Allawi then again from 2010 to 2012. He Cable & Electric Wire Factory which resigned from his post during both manufactured various raw materials tenures in protest of the sectarian including marble, concrete, and PVC. policies of former Prime Minister alHowever, Iraqi authorities would shut Maliki.

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New Role as Transitional Prime Minister In October 2019, Iraq was rocked by popular anti-government protests demanding the end of the government’s rule. To appease the protestors, Prime Minister Abdel Mahdi resigned from his post and President Burhan Salih would subsequently pick Allawi to be the new transitional leader. Allawi was most likely chosen because of his reputation for attempting to implement anti-corruption policies during his ministerial career, and one of the protestors’ demands is an end to the government’s corruption. Tough Times Ahead As Prime Minister, Allawi will have a tough task ahead of him. Parliament will need to approve his choices for various government posts. Afterward, he will need to find a way to curb the cases of corruption that has been plaguing the Iraqi government for over a decade. As the current Iraqi government is ranked as one of the most corrupt ones in the world, that won’t be an easy task.

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James Marsden, left, and Ben Schwartz in «Sonic the Hedgehog.» (Paramount Pictures)

Sonic the Hedgehog Kicks Off with Fanfare from Critics and Audiences Paramount Might Have Just Produced the Most Successful Video Game Film Adaptation by Ali El Shamy Almost 30 years on since Sonic made his debut in the video game world, the blue hedgehog has finally made his first appearance on the big screen. After months of online criticism, delays and speculation the film, which seemed like a huge gamble for Paramount Pictures, released to much fanfare from audiences and critics alike who praised both the film’s performances and humor. This is quite an incredible turnaround,

considering that shortly after the first trailer was released 10 months ago the film seemed destined to be a train-wreck. After the backlash, however, director Jeff Fowler decided to delay the film from its holiday season debut to make some much-needed changes.

FROM UNCANNY VALLEY TO IRRESTIBLY ADORABLE On April 2019 ,30, Paramount released the first

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trailer to Sonic the Hedgehog which showed how the titular character would look like. To put things lightly audiences and fans were not thrilled with the reveal. Sonic, one of the most iconic and recognized video game characters, was designed to be more “realistic” and as such he was given small beady eyes, a human-like body, and human teeth. Needless to say, this drastic design passed the uncanny valley for most people, and many young children would have probably considered this Sonic to be scary rather than endearing. The trailer sparked harsh online criticism and memes, and what’s worse is that Detective Pikachu made its way to cinemas just a few days after Sonic’s trailer. Detective Pikachu proved to be a commercial and critical success, and as it featured CGI Pokémon interacting with real-life actors, it was inevitably compared with Sonic the Hedgehog. The CGI Pikachu maintained its adorable design, and audiences stated that that’s how Sonic should have been reimagined for the big screen. Fowler would take these sentiments to heart and took the decision to delay the film to redesign Sonic. Thankfully, the new design paid homage to the hedgehog’s look from the early 90s, and the cartoony aesthetic appealed to older fans’ nostalgia and children’s love for cutesy characters. Furthermore, the sappy scenes where Sonic is contemplating his loneliness worked a lot better with his newer kid-friendly face, I

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While the jokes might not land for all the grown-up moviegoers, the children will probably like it as a lot of the kids at my cinema were laughing all throughout the film and some were even clapping after some of the jokes. honestly cringe at imagining how some of these scenes would have looked with the old design. Nevertheless, part of me wishes that the DVD/ Blue-ray release of the film features a director’s cut with all the finished scenes featuring the old Sonic because, let’s be honest, the original design would have made the film funny in a so-bad-it›s good kind of way, and many memes would have probably been born from this original cut.

AN OVERDONE PLOT THAT WORKS (SPOILERS AHEAD) The film’s premise is simple; Sonic (voiced by Ben Schwartz) is an anthropomorphic hedgehog from another dimension who is born with super speed. He is raised by an Owl called Longclaw, who warns Sonic that his extraordinary powers would make him a target from evil people. Shortly, a group of hunter hedgehogs tries to capture the young Sonic, who is given a bag of magical rings by Longclaw which can be used to transport him to different worlds. She uses one of the rings to transport him to our world and warns him to never get caught. Sonic is then transported to a small town in Montana called Green Hills (a reference to Green Hill Zone, the first level of the first Sonic game). Sonic grows up living in seclusion inside a cave but adopts some coping mechanisms to alleviate his loneliness, such as playing baseball in an empty field (his superspeed enables him to play all the positions). He also spies on a young married couple and

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pretends to be part of the family, for example during the couple’s weekly movie night he sits at their window and watches the film with them. The lovebirds consist of Tom Wachowski (James Marsden) the town sheriff and Maddie Wachowski (Tika Sumpter) a veterinarian. Eventually, the couple starts preparing a move to San Francisco after Tom accepts a new job at the San Francisco Police Department, leaving Sonic distraught that he will become even more secluded. This causes him to have somewhat of a mental breakdown, and he starts to run at extreme speeds around the baseball

field resulting in a power surge that cuts all the electricity in town. This triggers the interest of the government, and it seeks the services of an eccentric scientist Dr. Robotnik (who is played brilliantly by Jim Carrey) to find the cause of this incident. Sonic then takes refuge at the Wachowski household, as he begrudgingly attempts to use one of his rings to escape to the Mushroom Planet (a subtle dig at Nintendo’s Mario franchise). However, Tom discovers Sonic and shoots a tranquilizer at him, this causes him to drop one of his rings which opens a portal to San Francisco and the bag

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Haruki Satomi, James Marsden, Ben Schwartz, Jim Carrey, Tika Sumpter, Jeff Fowler and Toby Ascher at the premiere of ‹Sonic the Hedgehog› held at Paramount Theatre in Hollywood

Even though it might have been premature to tease a sequel, the fact that film has already surpassed Detective Pikachu in terms of US opening weekend earnings indicates that it is already slated to be a commercial success. parts that the film offers are a bit childish. Sonic’s speed is played for laughs, as many scenes revolve around him using his power to do multiple things at once. The bar fight scene is my personal favorite moment where Sonic exploits his power to mess with all parties involved in the fight resulting in good old slapstick humor which works for this kind of film. Like Pikachu, in Detective Pikachu, Sonic is a wisecracking jokester, but thankfully both characters ended up being charming and endearing rather than annoying. While the jokes might not land for all the grown-up moviegoers, the children will probably like it as a lot of the kids in my theater were laughing all throughout the film and some were even clapping after some of the jokes. It should also be noted that Sonic fans and those who are well versed in internet meme culture will probably appreciate the reference to “Sanic” at the beginning of the film.

A SEQUEL IN THE WORKS (SPOILERS AHEAD AGAIN) of rings subsequently falls through the portal and lands on top of the Transamerica Building. From here the plot turns into a mixture of ET and other buddy cop films, as Tom helps Sonic escape from the clutches of Robotnik by taking a road trip to retrieve the rings. All actors give an outstanding performance, especially Carrey who gives his usual over the top comedic acts .

HUMOR IS HIT AND MISS, BUT KIDS WILL LOVE IT

As this is a kids film, a lot of the comedic

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In the after-credits scene, we see Tails, Sonic’s sidekick, coming through a portal into our world in search of Sonic. This obviously indicates that there is a sequel that will involve other characters in the franchise and possibly even a secondary setting within Sonic’s world. Even though it might have been premature to tease a sequel, the fact that film has already surpassed Detective Pikachu in terms of US opening weekend earnings indicates that it is already slated to be a commercial success.

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The Dismal Kingdom Do Economists Have Too Much Power? by Paul Romer The Economists’ Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets, and the Fracture of Society. Binyamin Appelbaum. Little, Brown, 448 .2019pp. Transaction Man: The Rise of the Deal and the Decline of the American Dream. Nicholas Lemann. Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 320 .2019pp.Over the past 60 years, the United States has run what amounts to a natural experiment designed to answer a simple question: What happens when

a government starts conducting its business in the foreign language of economists? After 1960, anyone who wanted to discuss almost any aspect of U.S. public policy—from how to make cars safer to whether to abolish the draft, from how to support the housing market to whether to regulate the financial sector—had to speak economics. Economists, the thinking went, promised expertise and fact-based analysis. They would bring scientific precision and rigor to government interventions.

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In their attempt to answer normative questions that the science of economics could not address, economists opened the door to economic ideologues who lacked any commitment to scientific integrity. Both books are compelling and well reported, and both were written by journalists—outsiders who bring historical perspective to the changing role of economists in American society. Appelbaum tracks their influence across a wide range of policy questions since the 1960s. The language and the concepts of economics helped shape debates about unemployment and taxation, as one would expect. But they also influenced how the state handled military conscription, how it regulated airplane and railway travel, and how its courts interpreted laws limiting corporate power. Together, Appelbaum writes, economists’ countless interventions in U.S. public policy have amounted to no less than a “revolution”— well intentioned but with unanticipated consequences that were far from benign.

A pedestrian walks in front of a financial display screen showing the FTSE 100 on January 2008 ,22 in West London. (Getty)

For a while, this approach seemed a sure bet for steady progress. But several decades on, the picture is less encouraging. Consider, for example, the most basic quantitative indicator of well-being: the average length of a life. For much of the last century, life expectancy in the United States increased roughly in tandem with that in western Europe. But over the last four decades, the United States has been falling further and further behind. In 1980, the average American life was a year longer than the average European one. Today, it is two years shorter. For a long time, U.S. life expectancy was still rising but more slowly than in Europe; in recent years, it has been falling. A society is hardly making progress when its people are dying younger.

Lemann chronicles another, related revolution. In the first half of the twentieth century, especially after the calamity of the Great Depression, the conventional wisdom held that the power of corporations must be held in check by other comparably sized organizations—churches, unions, and, above all, a strong national government. But in the decades that followed, a new generation of economists argued that tweaks to how companies operated—more hostile takeovers, more reliance on corporate debt, bigger bonuses for executives when stock prices increased—would enable the market to regulate itself, obviating the need for stringent government oversight. Their suggestions soon became reality, especially in a newly deregulated financial sector, where they precipitated the emergence of junk bonds and other questionable innovations. Like Appelbaum, Lemann concludes that economists’ uncritical embrace of the market changed U.S. society for the worse.

Binyamin Appelbaum makes this point in his new book, The Economists’ Hour. That book and another recent one— Transaction Man, by Nicholas Lemann—converge on the conclusion that the economists at the helm are doing more harm than good.

Voters, too, have their doubts, in the United States and beyond. In the run-up to the 2016 Brexit vote, Michael Gove, then the British justice secretary, was asked to name economists who supported his position that the United Kingdom should leave the European Union. He refused. “People in this country

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have had enough of experts,” he snapped. “I’m not asking the public to trust me. I’m asking the public to trust themselves.” A majority of the British electorate followed his cue and voted to leave the EU, the warnings of countless economists be damned. Economists should take that outcome as an admonition warranting a major course change. Writing in 2018, the economists David Colander and Craig Freedman proposed one such correction. Over the course of the twentieth century, they contended, economists had built more and more sophisticated models to guide public policy, and many succumbed to hubris in the process. To regain the public’s trust, economists should return to the humility of their nineteenth-century forebears, who emphasized the limits of their knowledge and welcomed others—experts, political leaders, and voters—to fill in the gaps. Economists today should recommit to that approach, even if it requires them to publicly expel from their ranks any member of the community who habitually overreaches.

ESCAPE FROM THE BASEMENT Appelbaum’s book begins with a revealing anecdote from the 1950s about Paul Volcker, at the time a young economist working in the bowels of the Federal Reserve System and disillusioned about his career prospects. Among the Fed’s

In the run-up to the 2016 Brexit vote, Michael Gove, then the British justice secretary, was asked to name economists who supported his position that the United Kingdom should leave the European Union. He refused. “People in this country have had enough of experts,”…. A majority of the British electorate followed his cue and voted to leave the EU, the warnings of countless economists be damned.

national leadership were bankers, lawyers, and a hog farmer from Iowa—but no economists. In 1970, William McChesney Martin, Jr., then chair of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, could still explain to a visitor that although economists asked good questions, they worked from the basement because “they don’t know their own limitations, and they have a far greater sense of confidence in their analyses than I have found to be warranted.” But Martin was on his way out, and as Appelbaum shows in the chapters that follow, economists were emerging from the basement—not just at the Fed but also across the government. To take just one example, consider the rapid spread of costbenefit analysis as the tool of choice for assessing health and safety regulations. When the U.S. Congress created the Department of Transportation in 1966 and told it to make motor vehicles safer, lawmakers did not ask regulators to weigh the potential costs and benefits of proposed new rules: after all, no one could possibly determine the value of a human life. The economists Thomas Schelling and W. Kip Viscusi disagreed, arguing that people did in fact place a dollar value on human life, albeit implicitly, and that economists could calculate it. Regulators initially rejected this approach, but as complaints about burdensome safety regulations grew louder, some began to waver. In 1974, the Department of Transportation used a cost-benefit analysis to reject a proposed requirement that trucks be fitted with so-called Mansfield bars, designed to prevent the type of accident that had killed the actress Jayne Mansfield in 1967. The cost of installing the bars on every truck, regulators calculated, would exceed the combined value of the lives that the bars would save. Soon, every participant in the conversation about safety regulations was expected to state and defend a specific dollar value for a life lost or saved. Unfortunately, asking economists to set a value for human life obscured the fundamental distinction between the two questions that feed into every policy decision. One is empirical: What will happen if the government adopts this policy? The other is normative: Should the government adopt it? Economists can use evidence and logic to answer the first question. But there is no factual or logical argument that can answer the second one. In truth, the answer lies in beliefs about right and wrong, which differ from one individual to the next and evolve over time, much like people’s political views. In principle, it is possible to maintain a clear separation between these two types of questions. Economists can answer such empirical questions as how much it would cost if the government required Mansfield bars. It is up to officials— and, by extension, up to the voters who put them in office—to

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Unfortunately, this outcome may have been possible only because, although the moral stakes were high, the financial stakes were not. No firm faced billions of dollars in gains or losses depending on whether the government mandated Mansfield bars. As a result, none had an incentive to use its massive financial resources to corrupt the regulatory process and bias its decisions, and the “don’t ask, don’t tell” system of using economists as philosopher-kings worked reasonably well. The trouble arose when the stakes were higher—when the potential gains or losses extended into the tens of billions or hundreds of billions of dollars, as they do in decisions about regulating the financial sector, preventing dominant firms from stifling competition, or stopping a pharmaceutical firm from getting people addicted to painkillers. In such circumstances, it is all too easy for a firm that has a lot riding on the outcome to arrange for a pliant pretend economist to assume the role of the philosopher-king—someone willing to protect the firm’s reckless behavior from government interference and to do so with a veneer of objectivity and scientific expertise.

answer the corresponding normative question: What cost should society bear to save a life in any particular context? In practice, however, voters can provide only so much in the way of quantifiable directives. People may vote for an administration that promises safer cars, but that mandate alone is not specific enough to guide decisions such as whether to require Mansfield bars. Lacking clear guidance from voters, legislators, regulators, and judges turned to economists, who resolved the uncertainty by claiming to have found an empirical answer to the normative question at hand. In effect, by taking on the responsibility to determine for everyone the amount that society should spend to save a life, economists had agreed to play the role of the philosopher-king. In Appelbaum’s account, this arrangement seems to have worked out surprisingly well in setting standards for automobile safety. Economists in the mold of Schelling and Viscusi seem to have channeled as best they could the moral beliefs of the median voter. When regulators first rejected Mansfield bars, in 1974, they put the value of a life at 200,000$, but in response to pressure from voters demanding fewer traffic fatalities, economists and regulators gradually adjusted that number upward. Eventually, as the estimated value of the human lives lost to car accidents began to exceed the cost of installing Mansfield bars, regulators made the bars mandatory, and voters got the outcome they wanted.

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Simply put, a system that delegates to economists the responsibility for answering normative questions may yield many reasonable decisions when the stakes are low, but it will fail and cause enormous damage when powerful industries are brought into the mix. And it takes only a few huge failures to offset whatever positive difference smaller, successful interventions have made. One such failure is prescription drug regulation. In the United States in 1990, overdoses on legal and illegal drugs accounted for four deaths per 100,000. By 2017, they were causing 20 deaths per 100,000. A little math reveals that this increase is a major reason why average life expectancy in the United States lags so far behind that in western Europe today. A recent paper by four economists—Abby Alpert, William Evans, Ethan Lieber, and David Powell—concluded that OxyContin, the opioid-based painkiller that generated billions in revenue for the U.S. pharmaceutical giant Purdue Pharma, was responsible for a substantial fraction of those new drug overdoses. Imagine making the following proposal in the 1950s: Give for-profit firms the freedom to develop highly addictive painkillers and to promote them via sophisticated, aggressive, and very effective marketing campaigns targeted at doctors. Had one made this pitch to the bankers, the lawyers, and the hog farmer on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve back then, they would have rejected it outright. If pressed to justify their decision, they surely would not have been able to offer a cost-benefit analysis to back up their reasoning, nor would they have felt any need to. To know that it is morally wrong to let a company make a profit by killing people would

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have been enough. By the 1990s, such arguments were out of bounds, because the language and elaborate concepts of economists left no opening for more practically minded people to express their values plainly. And when the Drug Enforcement Administration finally tried to limit the distribution of these painkillers, pharmaceutical companies launched a massive lobbying effort in favor of a bill in Congress that would strip the DEA of the power to freeze suspicious narcotics shipments by drug companies. It is a safe bet that these lobbyists made their arguments to Congress in the language of growth, incentives, and the danger of innovation-killing regulations. The push succeeded, and the DEA lost one of its most powerful tools for saving lives. Of course, during earlier eras, regulators allowed many industries to profit massively from products known to be harmful; Big Tobacco is the most obvious example. But until the 1980s, the overarching trend was toward restrictions that reined in these abuses. Progress was painfully slow, but it was progress nonetheless, and life expectancy increased. The difference today is that the United States is going backward, and in many cases, economists—even those acting in good faith—have provided the intellectual cover for this retreat.

THE COST OF DEREGULATION Perhaps no one has captured the mindset that made possible such a massive regulatory failure—the mindset that economists really are philosopher-kings, who can instruct the public on right and wrong—better than Alan Greenspan, who was chair of the Federal Reserve at the time when Washington was easing regulations on many sectors. “Unfettered markets create a degree of wealth that fosters a more civilized existence,” Greenspan told a group of business economists in 2002. “I have always found that insight compelling.” Greenspan was hardly alone in this conviction, and the most damaging forms of deregulation were those that removed constraints on financial firms, as Lemann reveals in his account of the career of Michael Jensen, an economist who helped reshape the U.S. financial sector in the late twentieth century. Jensen rightly worried about several problems that bedeviled the market, including how to keep corporate executives from promoting their own interests at the expense of shareholders. His proposed solutions—hostile takeovers, debt, and executive bonuses that tracked the share price of a firm, among other changes—were widely adopted. Corporate shareholders saw their earnings skyrocket, but the main effect of the changes was to empower the financial sector, which Greenspan, for his part, worked doggedly to

unfetter. As Lemann writes, Jensen’s ideas also helped chip away at the power of the traditional Corporate Man—the sort of executive whose pursuit of profit was tempered somewhat by a commitment to noneconomic norms, among them a belief in the need to foster trust and build long-term relationships across company lines. Taking his place was Transaction Man, who focused on little more than driving up share prices by any means necessary. Deregulation, coupled with the new ethos of Transaction Man, invited immensely destructive behavior. One particularly egregious example occurred in 2007. That year, Paulson & Company, a hedge fund led by the investor John Paulson, paid Goldman Sachs approximately 15$ million to structure and market a bundle of mortgage-backed securities. According to a civil lawsuit later filed against Goldman (but not against Paulson & Company) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Goldman had included in the investment product mortgages that Paulson & Company believed were likely to end in default. In a 2010 settlement with the SEC, Goldman conceded that in marketing the product to clients, it had omitted both the role of Paulson & Company in designing the product and the hedge fund’s bet against it. According to the SEC, investors soon lost over 1$ billion; Paulson & Company, by taking the opposite position, earned approximately the same amount.

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Jensen quickly realized that Goldman’s behavior was cause for concern, and he inveighed against the cultural changes that had eroded the firm’s erstwhile commitment to integrity in its long-term relationships with its clients. Banks were, Lemann quotes him as saying, “lying, cheating, stealing.” It “sickened” Jensen that senior executives had avoided jail time in the wake of the financial crisis that followed. It is not clear whether Jensen has ever considered the possibility that by promoting a system that relied on transactions instead of relationships, he himself may have contributed to the erosion of trust and integrity in the U.S. financial sector. He seems not to have lost his faith that one more adjustment to the system might restore the miracle of the market. But he has not found that adjustment. He ended his professional career preaching the gospel of corporate integrity to empty pews. Lemann balances his account of Jensen’s career with the story of people whose lives were damaged by a deregulated financial system that let a new breed of mortgage broker mimic the predatory practices of payday lenders with impunity. In the 1990s, so many of those brokers opened storefront offices on Pulaski Road, on Chicago’s South Side, that residents came to refer to it as “Mortgage Row.” Lemann describes the effect these lenders had on one nearby neighborhood, Chicago Lawn. Teaser rates kept mortgage payments low for the first 24 months of a loan, but then they increased dramatically to levels that many borrowers could not possibly afford. Like clockwork, two years after being purchased, houses went into foreclosure. Many were abandoned. Neighborhood activists tried to stop the destruction of human capital caused by debt that overwhelmed the tenuous lives of the working poor, the destruction of physical capital caused by thieves who stripped water heaters and copper pipe from abandoned houses, and the destruction of social capital caused by abandoned houses that turned into crime hot spots. On top of these visible injuries, the people of Chicago Lawn had to bear the insult of official indifference. A decade before the collapse of the U.S. housing market rocked the global financial system, the damage done by subprime lending was already evident in their neighborhood. But in 1998, the Federal Reserve, under Greenspan, refused requests from alarmed consumer advocates that it examine the subprimelending activities of the banks it regulated. After more than a decade of damage to their neighborhood, the citizens of Chicago Lawn watched as the officials who would not even look into that damage saved the banks that had caused it. No amount of econosplaining could change the message this conveyed: everybody has to accept what the market gives them—except the people who work in the financial sector. Today’s record-low unemployment rate shows that ten years on, the most direct harm from the financial crisis has healed. But deeper wounds remain. Wage

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growth for workers has been slow, and the crisis caused a massive and long-lasting reduction in incomes across the world—and perhaps an even longer-lasting populist backlash against the political institutions of many countries.

A NEW HUMILITY In their attempt to answer normative questions that the science of economics could not address, economists opened the door to economic ideologues who lacked any commitment to scientific integrity. Among these pretend economists, the ones who prized supposed freedom (especially freedom from regulation) over all other concerns proved most useful—not to society at large but to companies that wanted the leeway to generate a profit even if they did pervasive harm in the process. When the stakes were high, firms sought out these ideologues to act as their representatives and further their agenda. And just like their more reputable peers, these pretend economists used the unfamiliar language of economics to obscure the moral judgments that undergirded their advice. Throughout his entire career, Greenspan worked to give financial institutions more leeway and in doing so helped create the conditions that led to the financial crisis. He did so in the name of economics—indeed, in the public consciousness, he came to personify the field. But his opposition to regulation was invulnerable to evidence. Until he took control at the Fed, he was a hired gun, ready to defend firms in the financial sector from regulators who tried to protect the public. In this role, he reportedly said that he had “never seen a constructive regulation yet.” If economists continue to let people like him define their discipline, the public will send them back to the basement, and for good reason. The alternative is to make honesty and humility prerequisites for membership in the community of economists. The easy part is to challenge the pretenders. The hard part is to say no when government officials look to economists for an answer to a normative question. Scientific authority never conveys moral authority. No economist has a privileged insight into questions of right and wrong, and none deserves a special say in fundamental decisions about how society should operate. Economists who argue otherwise and exert undue influence in public debates about right and wrong should be exposed for what they are: frauds. PAUL ROMER is Professor of Economics at New York University and former Chief Economist at the World Bank. He was a co-recipient, with William Nordhaus, of the 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics. This article was originally published in the March/ April 2020 issue of Foreign Affairs Magazine and on ForeignAffairs.com.