Issuu

Can Putin Fix Russiaâ€™s Sputtering Economy?

Washington Tightens Sanctions While Tehran Looks to Proxies for Aid

A Weekly Political News Magazine

Issue 1740 - March - 22/03/2019

Natasha Choufani: I Still Get Nervous in Front of the Camera www.majalla.com

Constructing Otherness: Past and Present www.majalla.com

Editorial There is a challenge facing many multicultural states today, for years acts of terror and crime from individuals within minority groups has fuelled an ultra nationalist and far right ideologies which seek to rid these states from their nonwhite and migrant citizens/residents. Furthermore, both mainstream and nontraditional media outlets have encouraged a tribalistic attitude within people, and emboldened many to become suspicious and hateful towards individuals within other groups. This issue of Majalla explores these new challenges and the many approaches policymakers and leaders can take to counter extremist ideologies from all sides.

A Weekly Political News Magazine

This week’s cover story by Ali El Shamy and Yasmine El Geressi focuses on this very problem of rising prejudice and radicalisation. The article first starts out with a brief history of racist ideology within the West and the ideological frameworks governments have come up with to justify their xenophobic policies. The history section also explores how children’s literature has played a role in passing down such racist attitudes to younger generations. The article then transitions to its second section, which focuses on how present day media outlets have played a role in radicalising individuals within both sides of the spectrum. In the wake of the New Zealand terror attack, the debate on what tech companies and social media outlets can do to prevent radicalisation is reignited. While the New Zealand terrorist is not the first one to live stream his attack online, his actions, such as writing a manifesto littered with memes and posting it on 8chan and announcing his livestream online, has shown that this is the first time a tech savvy “child of the internet” has conducted such an attack.

Mostafa El-Dessouki

Chung-in Moon wrote on the recent Trump-Kim Jong Un summit which took place in Hanoi, Vietnam. While the summit ended abruptly with no concrete resolution, Moon has argued that the South Korean government is still optimistic about prospective peace negotiations within the Korean peninsula. Despite the setbacks, there are still things to be positive about, for instance shortly after the summit South Korean foreign minister announced that Pyongyang was willing to dismantle its nuclear arsenal in Yongbyon, if UN sanctions from 2016 were lifted. The writer nevertheless stated that both sides needed to be more cooperative and offer more reasonable demands on the table. M.E. Sarotte writes on the history of NATO expansion towards Eastern Europe. The writer argues that far too many historians simplify the Eastward expansion of NATO as a strategic cat and mouse game between the US and Russia. While this has become another playing field between Russia and the US and its allies, the writer warns that we should not ignore the actions of the leaders of former Warsaw Pact countries who helped facilitate their ascension with NATO by the late 1990s. In lighter news, Nour El Huda Bahlaq has interviewed Lebanese actress Natasha Choufani where she discusses her past acting experiences, how she approaches her roles and her future ambitions in show business.

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Editor-in-Chief

Ghassan Charbel Editorial secretary

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

Convincing Call from Central Europe: 28 The Let Us into NATO

Issue 1740 - March- 22/03/2019

38 New Zealandâ€™s Prime Minister Faces Her

Hardest Challenge

32 20 The Next Stage of the Korean Peace Process

32 24 Can Putin Fix Russiaâ€™s Sputtering Economy?

08 May Gets Two-Week Brexit Reprieve from Impatient EU

Effective Supplementor Placebo? 3

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32 Struggling with Cat Shedding and Cyberbullying

napshot

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Afghan villagers carry sheep through a flood-affected area in the Arghandab district of Kandahar province on March 2. At least 20 people were killed by flash floods as heavy rains swept away homes and vehicles. JAVED TANVEER/AFP/Getty Images

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napshot

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Members of the ÂŤPena de Pavao de KrishnaÂť traditional carnival group, which celebrates Indian deities, perform in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, on March 3. DOUGLAS MAGNO/ AFP/Getty Images

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eekly news

May Gets Two-Week Brexit Reprieve from Impatient EU European Union leaders have given Prime Minister Theresa May two weeks’ reprieve, until April 12, before Britain could lurch out of the EU if she fails to persuade MPs to back the withdrawal treaty she concluded with Brussels. But after seven hours of summit brainstorming on Thursday, her 27 peers kept a host of options open, ramping up pressure on parliament to support May, giving Britain an outside chance of staying in for much longer - but also preparing to deflect blame for the chaos of any no-deal Brexit. May had wanted to be able to delay Britain’s departure until June 30 to tie up legislative loose ends, and tried to reassure the EU that she could overturn two heavy defeats

to clinch a last-gasp parliamentary ratification of her deal next week, so allowing a status-quo transition period to come into effect.

New Zealand Bans Military Type Semi-Automatic Weapons Used in Mosque Massacre New Zealand will ban military-style semiautomatic and assault rifles under tough new gun laws following the killing of 50 people in its worst mass shooting, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said on Thursday. In the immediate aftermath of last Friday’s shootings at two mosques in the city of Christchurch, Ardern labeled the attack as terrorism and said New Zealand’s gun laws would change. “On

15 March our history changed forever. Now, our laws will too. We are announcing action today on behalf of all New Zealanders to strengthen our gun laws and make our country a safer place,” Ardern told a news conference. “All semi-automatic weapons used during the terrorist attack on Friday 15 March will be banned.” Ardern said she expected the new laws to be in place by April 11 and a buy-back scheme costing up to NZ200$ million (138$ million) would be established for banned weapons.

Trump Says Time for U.S. to Recognise Israeli Sovereignty Over Golan U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday it was time to recognise Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights that Israel seized from Syria in 1967, marking a dramatic shift in U.S. policy. The disputed area was captured by Israel in the 1967 Middle East war and annexed in 1981 in a move not recognised internationally. Netanyahu has pressed the United States to recognise its claim and raised that possibility in his first White House meeting with Trump in February 2017. “After 52 years it is time for the United States to fully recognise Israel’s Sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which is of critical strategic and security importance to the State of Israel and Regional Stability!” Trump wrote on Twitter.

Iran Says Will Boost Defence Capabilities Despite U.S. Pressure Iran is determined to boost its defence capabilities despite mounting pressure from the United States and its allies to curb its ballistic missile programme, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Thursday. “We need

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proxies in Middle East conflicts from Yemen to Syria.

Kazakhstan's Leader Nazarbayev Resigns After Three Decades in Power

to take Iran to a point that enemy understand that they cannot threaten Iran ... America’s sanctions will make Iran self-sufficient,” Khamenei said in a speech broadcast live on state TV. President Donald Trump withdrew the United States last May from a 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six major powers, saying it gave too much away to Iran, and reimposed far-reaching U.S. sanctions. The U.S. sanctions aim to force Iran to accept tougher restrictions on its nuclear work, drop its ballistic missile programme and scale back support for militant

Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev unexpectedly resigned on Tuesday after three decades in power, in what appeared to be the first step in a choreographed political transition that will see him retain considerable sway. Known as “Papa” to many Kazakhs, the -78year-old former steel worker and Communist party apparatchik has ruled the vast oil and gas-rich Central Asian nation since 1989, when it was still part of the Soviet Union. Bestowed by parliament with the official title of “The Leader of the Nation”, he was the last Soviet-era leader still in office and oversaw extensive market reforms while remaining widely popular in his country of 18 million people. “I have taken a decision, which was not easy for me, to resign as president,” Nazarbayev said in a nationwide TV address, flanked by his country’s blue and yellow flags, before signing a decree terminating his powers from March 20. But Nazarbayev, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said he would retain key security council and party leader positions and hand over the presidency to a loyal ally for the rest of his term, which ends in April 2020.

3 Killed in Utrecht Terror Attack A man has been arrested after three people were killed and five wounded, some seriously, in a shooting on a tram in the Dutch city of

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Utrecht on Monday. Gokmen Tanis, a -37yearold born in Turkey, was found several hours after the attack in a building about two miles (3km) from the scene. One witness told local media that "a man started shooting wildly". Several of the injured were said to be in a critical condition. The shooting sparked a city-wide manhunt and the closure of schools. Dutch prosecutors believe that the suspect had a terrorist motive, but authorities are probing if this was combined with any "personal problems," according to a statement released on Thursday.

Hundreds Killed in African Cyclone Rescue workers plucked more survivors to safety from trees and roofs on Thursday, a week after a cyclone ripped through southern Africa and triggered devastating floods that have killed hundreds of people and displaced hundreds of thousands. Helicopters whirred above the turbid, red-brown flood waters searching for people to ferry back to the port city of Beira, headquarters of the huge rescue operation in Mozambique. The death toll in that country was now 242, Land and Environment Minister Celso Correia said, adding that the number of dead was rising as rescue workers found bodies that had been hidden by Cyclone Idai’s now-receding floodwaters. Correia told a news conference that around 15,000 people, many of them very ill, still needed to be rescued. “Our biggest fight is against the clock,” he said, adding that 3,000 had been rescued so far. In neighbouring Zimbabwe, the confirmed death toll jumped to 139. President Emmerson Mnangagwa, declaring two days of national mourning from Saturday, described scenes of “unmitigated despair” in Rusitu, near the border with Mozambique. In Malawi, 56 people were confirmed dead.

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Constructing Otherness: Past and Present Causes, Solutions, and Dilemmas 10

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Throughout history, colonizers and oppressors have used a certain ideology to justify their atrocities, especially those that are racially motivated. the past, a historical reading of prejudice shows that it isn’t that easy. Indeed, recent events such as the rise of the alt-right, radical Islamism and far-right populism are indicators that there is still a lot more work that needs to be done. Before looking into what can be done in the future, it is necessary that we critically analyze the history of racism and the many forms it manifested as only then can we start prescribing the necessary medicine to remedy such a societal ailment.

IDEOLOGICAL RACISM

Crowds gather on Takapuna beach for a vigil in memory of the victims of the Christchurch mosque terror attacks on March 2019 ,16, in Auckland, New Zealand. (Getty

by Yasmine El-Geressi and Ali El-Shamy Othering a group of people has been a mainstay of humanity and while race relations today are better than they were throughout the 20thcentury, there can be no doubt that the mid2010-s has marked the beginning of a worrying trend in which nationalist and xenophobic tendencies have grown ever more mainstream. This comes years after such ideologies had been relegated to the fringes of the political and social landscapes. Although the turn of the new millennium paved optimism that systemic racism was on its last legs and that it would soon be a thing of

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Throughout history, colonizers and oppressors have used a certain ideology to justify their atrocities, especially those that are racially motivated. One iconic example of such an ideology was the American ideal of “manifest destiny”. The story of the concept is quite a long one; the United States was initially founded on the 13 English colonies that were located along the East Coast of America. During the infant years of the United States, these colonies sufficed the agricultural and living demands of Americans and European immigrants who sought to make the newly founded United States their new home. A problem lay with the Native American population who had already lived in these lands and used them to maintain their semi-nomadic lifestyle which relied heavily on hunting. Some American thinkers, such as the US’s third President Thomas Jefferson, believed that the Native Americans were “more advanced” than the Africans who were being imported for slavery and could thus have the capacity to become as civilized as white men. White Americans also thought that the Native Americans’ lifestyle led an inefficient use of land that could easily be used for cultivation, as such it was believed that if Native Americans could assimilate into White towns, cities and culture then they would leave their lands which would then be used for agriculture. As European migration to the US increased in the 1800s, more land was needed to accommodate

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everyone; it was for this reason that the US government advocated the idea that Americans had “manifest destiny” to expand westward. In 1830, the Indian Removal Act was enacted which was meant to reserve Native Americans land West of the Mississippi River in exchange for their land East of the Mississippi. Natives who did not wish to relocate would be given the right to US citizenship and to live in the new states that would be formed on their lands. Naturally, negotiations for the land were not this amicable and would eventually lead to the forced expulsion of Native Americans from the land. The White Man’s Burden was another ideological idea that justified acts of colonialism. Ironically, the term was originally coined in Rudyard Kipling’s poem “The White Man’s Burden”, which makes fun of the idea that colonists’ actions had a certain responsibility. Despite the satirical origins of the term, colonial powers such as Britain would use it to claim that it has a burden and responsibility to civilize the savage nations they were invading and pillaging. Finally, the ideological idea of a “pure, dominant” race has also led to atrocities throughout history. The most basic example of this was Adolf Hitler’s idea of a “pure Aryan” race that had to eradicate races and people that he viewed as inferior. This, of course, led to the Holocaust which resulted in the murder of 6 million Jews. Other people who suffered from the diabolical ideology include the Roma, Poles and people with mental illnesses.

PASSING DOWN THE PROPAGANDA Like many things in life, there is an ongoing debate

It should not be denied, however, that works of fiction and media have historically tried to pass down racist thoughts to the younger generations.

regarding whether or not racism is a learnt trait or innate trait, in other words, this is another form of the age old nature vs nurture debate. It should not be denied, however, that works of fiction and media have historically tried to pass down racist thoughts to the younger generations. Take, for example, the famous French children’s book series Babar the Elephant. The first book in the series starts in tragedy as Babar’s mother is killed by an unnamed hunter. Things start to look up for the young elephant after he escapes out of the jungle and into the city where he is adopted by a wealthy French lady. As an upper class Parisian, the Rich Lady takes it upon herself to raise Babar and civilize him into human society. As such, she teaches Babar various human habits and skills such as eating with a knife and fork and sleeping in a bed. He is also taught how to walk on his hind legs rather than on all fours and starts to wear his iconic green suit, which the Rich Lady bought him. After a while, two of his cousins also escape to the city and upon meeting

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Painting entitled 'American Progress', by John Gast, depicting 'Manifest Destiny' (the religious belief that the United States should expand from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean in the name of God.(Getty)

education to civilize and rule over his native, nonEuropean people. The fact that the books were first published in the 1930s, a time when France had many colonies across Africa and the Middle East and when the White Man’s Burden narrative was still rampant, does make these colonial apologist accusations hold water. Another example would be C.S. Lewis’s The Chronicles of Narnia, which featured the European inspired Narnian and Archeland Kingdoms waged in a war against the Middle East-esque Calormen Empire. In the novels, the Calormen are depicted as dark-skinned, long-bearded, rob and turban-wearing and scimitar swinging. Unlike the civilised and enlightened Narnian and Archelandian inhabitants, the Calormen are barbarians who owned slaves and mistreated animals. Again such works evidently attempt to other those who come from non-European cultures by depicting them as less civilized and barbaric. While it cannot be proven that such works have made people prejudice towards other races, it can be argued that such literature does have a latent bias against non-European cultures and its people. Nevertheless, that's not to say censoring or banning such works is the answer, rather young readers should be made aware of the time period in which the works were published as to ensure that such attitudes would not be appropriate in today’s world. them, he starts to civilize them and teach them what the Rich Lady taught him. Feeling homesick, he decides to return to the jungle with his cousins, coincidentally the king of the elephants happened to die just as Babar arrived. Enamored by his demeanor and classiness, the elephants unanimously choose Babar to be their new king. At face value, the story seems like an innocent rag to riches fable, however, there have been many thinkers and writers who have criticized the book series and thought that there were insidious latent messages in the stories. For instance, Ariel Dorfman thought that Babar served as apologist propaganda for French colonialism. It is not hard to draw some similarities between colonialism and Babar’s life, for instance, many European colonial powers preferred indirect rule rather than direct rule. One of the ways they use they did that was relying on members of upper classes who were taught in Western schools and universities. It was this Western cultural cultivation which would lead to their appointments as rulers on behalf of their colonial masters. Similarly, Babar is given a Western education and uses this

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FEAR OF UNWANTED IMMIGRANTS Anti-immigration bias is not a new phenomenon; even during its inception, the United States had preconceptions that favoured some immigrants over others. While the US branded itself as a land founded on immigrants, the immigrants that hailed from nonWASP (White Anglo-Saxon Protestant) backgrounds were often unwanted. For instance, the founding father and statesman, Benjamin Franklin, was racist towards Germans and did not advocate for them to enter the country. The reason for his predisposition was that he thought that Germans would not assimilate into the American customs and culture which was at the time based largely on English culture. He also thought that Germans would attempt to “Germanize” the colonies which were founded by Englishmen. Furthermore, he claimed that Germans, Italians, Swedes, French and Russians had a different complexion than that of the Saxons, thus he thought that they would taint America’s whiteness. Such bias would continue, as 100 years later the Americans were prejudiced towards Irish and Italian immigrants, part of the

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reasoning behind the prejudice was the anti-Catholic bias that existed in the largely Protestant US.

FEAR OF ECONOMIC APPROPRIATION Many working-class Americans also disliked these migrants due to their cheap labour, this caused a lot of economic anxiety as many believed the migrants would take their jobs. One example of such anxiety would happen in the 1800s, as many Chinese immigrants came to California during the gold rush. Over time, the gold had depleted and was getting hard to find, this led to the Chinese being forced out of mines and enclaves. As they settled into cities and took on various labour jobs, many politicians and labour lobbyists started to demonize the Chinese and blamed them for monetary problems such as decreased wages. This would ultimately lead to the 1882 Chinese Exclusion Act which made it illegal for Chinese labourers to come to the United States. This fear of “economic appropriation” is still rampant around the world as immigrants are constantly scapegoated for taking jobs away from native citizens. Furthermore, many people have accused common business practices such as various equal opportunity hiring policies as examples of favouring non-natives over native prospective employees.

WHERE ARE WE TODAY? We live in a period of dramatic social change and unprecedented openness in human history. More than 300 million people are currently living outside their homelands and ethnonationalism is on the rise – from the Rohingya people forced out of Myanmar, to neo-Nazis marching with torches in the streets of Charlottesville, Virginia in the United States - as group-based differences shape contemporary global conflicts. The attack in New Zealand on March 15 is the worst terrorist attack perpetrated by an ultra-right wing militant in the history of the country. The increasingly transnational narratives of far-right extremists have strong parallels with other forms of global extremism, in particular, Islamism. Like ISIS, the Christchurch attacker's ideology claims there are no such thing as innocents in this clash of civilizations between Islam

and the West, only combatants. Both worldviews emphasize transnational bonds of brotherhood. Both groups celebrate the killing and torment of innocents.

THE RADICAL ONLINE The New Zealand shooter’s 74 page manifesto that laid out his ideology - which is rooted in a grand narrative of Western culture in decline - the 17 minute live-streamed video of the brutal attack, and means of distributing the two were remarkable for the way they circulated online and in how they were steeped in the conventions of online culture. As The Washington Post noted: “The New Zealand massacre video, which appeared to have been recorded with a GoPro helmet camera, was announced on the fringe chat room 8chan, live-streamed on Facebook, reposted on

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Barbar the Elephant. (Wikimedia commons)

Twitter and YouTube and discussed on Reddit.” The Christchurch shooting wasn’t the first time a brutal murder was live-streamed on Facebook— Three years ago, a jihadist streamed the aftermath of his gruesome murder of a police officer and his partner outside Paris. The New Zealand shootings reignited the debate on how tech companies moderate their platforms and whether they are doing enough to stop hosting terrorist propaganda and crack down on the spread of extremism online, while also highlighting the difficulty in putting a lid of extremist hate that spreads online. Critics of the tech giants say that Facebook and YouTube have not done enough to address white supremacist groups on their platforms and stop the propagation of extremist content such as the live footage of the abhorrent attack which stayed online for a worrying amount of time. A report by the Guardian found that one video stayed on Facebook for six hours and another on YouTube for three. In the hours following the shooting, the global media broadcast this material far and wide. Australia’s prime minister has urged G20 nations to use their meeting in June to discuss a crackdown, while New Zealand media reported the nation’s biggest banks have pulled their advertising from Facebook and Google. “We cannot simply sit back and accept that these platforms just exist and what is said is not the responsibility of the place where they are published,” New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern told parliament. “They are the publisher, not just the postman. There cannot be a case of all profit, no responsibility.” Subgroups online have spread quickly into online and offline communities that defend extremist postures. These obstinate techniques that attempt to legitimate hate speech on the internet are used by communities that consult hateful content to validate their own extremist beliefs, divide and dehumanise groups, and exploit collective anxiety - turning the internet into an important tool that facilitates the growth of xenophobia and exasperates the problem. No longer do you need to wear the hood to meet a member of the Ku Klux Klan or travel to Iraq to delve into ISIS: You can do it all from your screen. The US and its allies long ago recognized the need to combat jihadist propaganda online. They have spent many millions of dollars to take down jihadist

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This misuse of this technology could be considered a symptom of wider issues offline in our societies, therefore, broad cooperation between tech companies, academia and civil society, underpinned by state support, is required. websites and to offer anti-jihadist messaging online. But efforts to fight far-right propaganda online lack comparable urgency, though right-wing terrorists have killed far more people in the United States in the past decade than Islamist extremists have. Few would question the importance of ensuring that extremist material is not widely accessible in the public domain, but while it is essential to pressure these commercial entities to make changes that will silence the hate, Google and Facebook won’t remedy it alone - fighting hate and xenophobia in our societies needs more thought. This misuse of this technology could be considered a symptom of wider issues offline in our societies, therefore, broad cooperation between tech companies, academia and civil society, underpinned by state support, is required. Until societal root causes are adequately understood and effectively addressed, the threat of violent extremism will continue to corrupt communities and society at large – whether online, offline or somewhere in between.

THE ROLE OF TRADITIONAL MEDIA Responsible media can make it easier for facts to penetrate echo chambers is they resist pandering to established constituencies, and aim to provide the unbiased truth to as broad an audience as possible. Britain’s counter-terrorism chief has said farright terrorists are being radicalised by mainstream newspaper coverage and criticised the hypocrisy of outlets such as Mail Online, which uploaded the “manifesto” of the gunman in the Christchurch terror attack. Neil Basu, one of Britain’s top police officers, pointed out the irony that while newspapers have repeatedly criticised the likes of Facebook and Google

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for hosting extremist content, sites including the Sun and the Mirror quickly upload clips of footage filmed by the terrorist. Basu said it was time to accept that many terrorists were being radicalised by mainstream news outlets: “The reality is that every terrorist we have dealt with has sought inspiration from the propaganda of others, and when they can’t find it on Facebook, YouTube, Telegram or Twitter they only have to turn on the TV, read the paper or go to one of a myriad of mainstream media websites struggling to compete with those platforms.” He cited the 2017 terror attack in Finsbury Park in London as an example of where a man was “driven to an act of terror by far-right messaging he found mostly on mainstream media”. Basu also said he hoped the government would deal with the issue of mainstream news outlets amplifying terrorist messaging in its forthcoming proposals on online harms and not just target large social networks such as Facebook and YouTube. “A piece of extremist propaganda might reach tens of thousands of people naturally through their own channels or networks, but the moment a national newspaper publishes it in full then it has a potential reach of tens of millions. We must recognise this as harmful to our society and security. “Anyone who seeks to deny the negative effects that promoting terrorist propaganda can have should think carefully about the massive global effort to remove terrorist content from social media platforms and the pressure that governments, law enforcement and, ironically, the mass media have put on those companies to cleanse their sites.”

A WHOLE SOCIETY RESPONSE A “whole society response” is needed that addresses the combined challenges of terrorism and extremism and combats its social roots as well as the growing problem of social and cognitive alienation of young people in contemporary society. A broader counterterrorism strategy needs to attack

the ideological roots of both far-right and Islamistinspired terrorism. Both call for militant pan-nationalist alliances based on ‘shared identities’, wrapped up in extremist rhetoric. Both represent a fundamental loathing and rejection of national identity and the nation-state itself and therefore trust and patriotism, then, are both critical in this battle. Diversity is only a strength if people of different backgrounds can work together around shared goals for the common good that people care about and are prepared to invest in. Lack of contact between groups breeds suspicion, reinforces stereotypes and undermines trust. This acts as a barrier to developing a cross-community response to all forms of extremism. The fostering of a civic patriotism is the key to challenging it and rehumanising the “other.” Scott Atran at the University of Oxford’s Centre for Resolution of Intractable Conflicts says that intervening early before anyone becomes a “devoted

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actor” willing to lay down their lives for a cause is key. “Until then, there are all sorts of things you can do.” One of the most effective countermeasures, he says, is community engagement. High-school football and the scouts movement have been effective responses to antisocial behaviour among the disenfranchised children of US immigrants, for example. Education must also play a much greater role in a sustainable and effective counter-extremism effort. The benefits of critical thinking education are transferable and sustainable. Transferable because the manipulative efforts of criminal gangs, of ISIS, or of far-right organisations, can all be countered with that same skill set. Greater critical thinking skills don’t just make for safer young people – they make for more critical, concerned citizens. They are sustainable because they lay the ground-work against future threats. Experts like Thomas Hegghammer

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Lack of contact between groups breeds suspicion, reinforces stereotypes and undermines trust. This acts as a barrier to developing a cross-community response to all forms of extremism. of the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment advocate for "a really broad expansive overhaul of education in immigrant areas, and an emphasis on youth work." Hegghammer has called this a "Marshall Plan for improved education in immigrant-heavy areas."

olitics

Washington Tightens Sanctions While Tehran Looks to Proxies for Aid As senior American officials warn of new sanctions, President Rouhani has dubbed the measures “a crime against humanity” and vowed to seek legal redress - while his peers in Tehran warn they may summon Shi’ite proxy militias to suppress unrest at home. 18

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by Joseph Braude US ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS WARN OF NEW SANCTIONS On March 14, Trump administration officials told a gathering of 850 U.S. and foreign business people that the White House intends to constrict legal trade with Iran further. David Peyman, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Counter Threat Finance and Sanctions, asserted that U.S. sanctions on Iran aimed at “specific and narrow goals” — namely, a halt to Iranian efforts at destabilizing its neighbors and developing nuclear weapons capacity. Peyman warned companies still working with Iran that “the rules may change and may change quickly.” “Tomorrow, next week or next month you may find yourself conducting business that may be legal today [but] that isn't in the future." Also in attendance was Brian Hook, the State Department’s special envoy on Iran. “Our sanctions are back in place,” he declared. “There’s more to come.” He also noted that it was difficult for foreign businesses to avoid contact with sanctioned entities such as Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Hook said the between 50 and 70 percent of the Iranian economy is controlled by the IRGC. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo boards his plane in Kansas City, Missouri, on March 2019 ,18. - Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was in Kansas City Monday to speak at the Global Entrepreneurship Summit. (Getty)

Hook’s message accompanied Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s initiative to designate the Qods Force a foreign terrorist organization. As the New York Times reported, Pompeo is also spearheading a similar effort targeting Asa’ib Ahl al-Haqq, a Shi’ite paramilitary group that recently won 15 seats in Iraq’s parliament, while pressuring the Iraqi government to halt the purchase of natural gas and electricity from Iran.

IRANIAN OFFICIALS WAGE LAWFARE AGAINST SANCTIONS, SEEK MILITIA AID AGAINST UNREST On March 17, Iranian President Rouhani announced that his legal department, along with the justice and foreign affairs ministries, would file a lawsuit against the architects of U.S.

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Musa Ghazanfarabadi, head of the Tehran Islamic Revolution Courts, suggested that the Iranian government might import IRGCtrained Shiite militias from across the Middle East to bolster the Islamic Republic against domestic threats. sanctions on Iran. He described the sanctions as a “crime against humanity,” noting that they were aimed at “overthrowing the Republic’s government and ushering in one more aligned with U.S. policies. … The Americans have only one goal: they want to come back to Iran and rule the nation again.” Also this week, a leading Iranian cleric delivered an ominous warning in the course of a talk with religious students in Qom. Musa Ghazanfarabadi, head of the Tehran Islamic Revolution Courts, suggested that the Iranian government might import IRGC-trained Shiite militias from across the Middle East to bolster the Islamic Republic against domestic threats. “If internal forces fail to protect the regime,” he said, “then the Houthi rebels, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) known as ‎alHashd al-Shaabi, Liwa Fatemiyoun, Liwa Zainebiyoun and other militia groups who are part of the axis of resistance will take over the task and protect the Islamic Revolution in Iran.” Ghazanfarabadi sad. This severe warning provoked criticism from the hardline clerics’ opponents. Seyyed Mostafa Tajzadeh, an Iranian reformist and former minister who spent seven years in Evin Prison for supporting the “Green Revolution,” issued a harsh rebuke to Ghazanfarabadi: "What damage did you do to the Islamic Republic so you're asking help from other people to protect it, instead of seeking help from those who built it?" Tajzadeh asked.

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The Next Stage of the Korean Peace Process Why Seoul Remains Optimistic After Hanoi By Chung-in Moon* When the U.S.–North Korean summit in Hanoi ended early, with no agreement whatsoever, many South Koreans were shocked. The disappointing conclusion shook the public’s faith in summit diplomacy and undermined Seoul’s efforts to foster parallel processes: for denuclearizing North Korea, building a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, and fostering interKorean economic cooperation. In short, South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s strategy for bettering relations among Seoul, Washington, and Pyongyang after the summit was shattered. The summit may have failed, but Seoul observed

several encouraging signs. There was neither acrimony nor mutual recrimination at the summit, nor a sudden escalation of military tension in its wake. Considering Pyongyang’s past behavior, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s restraint was unusual. U.S. President Donald Trump’s response was also encouraging. He did not tweet anything inflammatory about Pyongyang in the summit’s wake. Nor did he suggest new sanctions or the renewal of U.S.–South Korean joint military exercises. On the contrary, he expressed his unwavering trust in Kim and his commitment to continuing the dialogue even though the summit didn’t end as he had hoped. Moreover, if the Singapore declaration could be criticized as producing nothing more than a joint

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In short, South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s strategy for bettering relations among Seoul, Washington, and Pyongyang after the summit was shattered. was only a temporary setback on the long, treacherous odyssey toward denuclearization and peace in Korea, and that talks between Pyongyang and Washington will resume soon. Nonetheless, the way things concluded in Hanoi left Seoul anxious about a number of potential ways in which future negotiations could derail.

POTENTIAL PERILS The United States and North Korea went into the Hanoi summit with conflicting ideas of what would constitute a good deal. Seoul now fears that this gap between Washington and Pyongyang’s demands will stall further progress. The Moon government initially thought that the United States could reasonably request that Pyongyang completely and verifiably dismantle nuclear facilities in Yongbyon now, while committing to dismantle additional nuclear facilities and ballistic missiles later; in return, Washington could offer the opening of liaison offices, a declaration ending the Korean War, and partial sanctions relief such that inter-Korean economic exchange and cooperation could resume. Seoul would stand ready to reopen the Kaesong Industrial Complex and the Mount Kumgang tourist project, two major inter-Korean economic projects in the North that were kept closed as a result of both international and South Korean sanctions. In this handout photo provided by Vietnam News Agency, U.S. President Donald Trump (R) and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (L) during their second summit meeting at the Sofitel Legend Metropole hotel on February 2019 ,28 in Hanoi, Vietnam. (Getty)

shopping list of hopes, the Hanoi summit at least made clear each side’s concrete and specific demands. For Washington, it was the final, fully verified denuclearization (FFVD) by Pyongyang. North Korea was also specific in its demands. As Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho elaborated at a midnight press conference after the summit was over, Pyongyang offered to dismantle the nuclear facilities in Yongbyon under the observation and verification of the United States in exchange for partial lifting of five UN Security Council sanction resolutions imposed since 2016. It was rare for North Korea to put forth such a specific proposal. The Moon government sees such moves by both parties as positive signs. It believes that the Hanoi summit

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Such an agreement would have set a firm foundation for the next phase of diplomacy. But when the two parties met in Hanoi, the mismatch between U.S. demands, which were overly ambitious, and the North Korean offer, which was excessively cautious, led to failure. South Korea will not easily find a halfway point between these two extremes as negotiations continue. Indeed, not just the demands themselves but the timeline for implementing them have led to division and anxiety for Seoul. The United States has traditionally called for an all-or-nothing, “dismantle first, reward later” model, whereas North Korea has pushed for incremental steps in exchange for U.S. concessions. Seoul has made diplomatic efforts to narrow the gap, which until

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Hanoi it thought had been somewhat successful. U.S. Special Envoy for North Korea Stephen Biegun’s January speech at Stanford University, for example, emphasized a step-by-step approach and the parallel pursuit of denuclearization, a peace regime, and the easing of economic sanctions. South Korea had been urging the North to take decisive steps toward the irreversible stage of denuclearization, as evidenced by Article 5 of the Pyongyang Declaration, which underscores the imperative of dismantling the missile engine test site and launching pad in Dongchang-ri under the observation of U.S. experts and the permanent removal of nuclear facilities in Yongbyon and the like. The small deal package that Kim offered in Hanoi was a kind of response to Seoul’s efforts. After the summit, however, Washington seemed to have changed its mind about the incremental approach. Speaking anonymously, a senior State Department official now claimed that “nobody in the administration advocates a step-by-step approach. In all cases, the expectation is a complete denuclearization of North Korea as a condition for . . . all the other steps being taken.” The Moon government’s ability to make a deal between the parties, and to advance parallel processes, will be critically hampered if the Trump administration now rejects a step-by-step process out of hand. The administration’s renewed hard-line stance in Hanoi may have been partly rooted in domestic political concerns, and the politicization of nuclear negotiations is yet another possibility that South Korea greatly fears. A new political landscape in light of the 2020 U.S. presidential election could divert Trump’s attention away from the North Korean nuclear issue. Trump tweeted that his former attorney Michael Cohen’s testimony before Congress affected the outcome of the summit. Trump may have felt that he could only pacify Democrats, along with the news media critical of his negotiations with the North, if he came back with a bold all-or-nothing deal, no matter how premature. Otherwise, he would return to face political fallout from the Cohen hearing and an uproar over a deal perceived as too conciliatory. North Korea’s leader exercises absolute power and authority at home—but he, too, could face negative domestic political repercussions should negotiations falter. Conservative hard-line forces in the military and security services, who do not benefit

from rapprochement, may start to grumble about Kim’s emphasis on peace-building and economic development. Kim has taken some precautionary measures in Hanoi’s wake. At his first public appearance after the summit, he reiterated that “No revolutionary tasks stand before us other than the improvement of the economy and people’s daily lives.” This declaration is likely a well-calculated political move to warn the military and other hard-line elements that negotiations will proceed. But if talks with Washington continue to stall, Kim, who currently touts an economy-first policy, could be forced to shift to the old military-first politics, thereby raising the risk of hard confrontation. The Moon government, too, fears the political repercussions of Hanoi at home. At a time of protracted economic hardship in South Korea, Moon has bet on the peace initiative to bring him political gains. But without a diplomatic breakthrough, and with a general election scheduled for April 2020, Moon could face a daunting and uncertain future.

THE PATH TO A BREAKTHROUGH Despite recent setbacks, Seoul remains optimistic about the peace process because the negotiation track

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In this handout image provided by South Korean Presidential Blue House, South Korean President Moon Jae-in talks on the phone with U.S. President Donald Trump at the presidential Blue House on February 2019 ,28 in Seoul, South Korea. (Getty)

Both sides need to be prudent and realistic. North Korea is highly unlikely to accept the all-or-nothing deal that the Trump administration proposed in Hanoi. at Hanoi seem workable. The United States will not exchange the permanent dismantling of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities and of nuclear and missile activities for the lifting of major portions of the UN economic sanctions. Pyongyang should offer moreâ€”perhaps a commitment to dismantle additional uranium enrichment facilitiesâ€”while expecting less, such as inter-Korean economic exchange and cooperation instead of sweeping sanctions relief. Otherwise, a winwin compromise will be unreachable.

is still open, and Pyongyang and Washington can be brought back to the table. Both sides should sustain their hard-won dialogue and build on the momentum toward reconciliation, making every effort to prevent the negotiations from derailing. Destroying the negotiation track is easy, but restoring it is damn hard. Given the fragility of the relationship, provocative rhetoric and actions, no matter how trivial they may seem, can bring about catastrophic consequences. Policymakers should learn a lesson from the exchange of harsh rhetoric between U.S. Vice President Mike Pence and Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui in May 2018, an exchange that almost aborted the Singapore summit that June. Mutual restraint in word and deed is essential for the resuscitation of negotiation. The surest way to derail the negotiations and precipitate a potential catastrophe would be for North Korea to engage in any nuclear or missile tests. Both sides need to be prudent and realistic. North Korea is highly unlikely to accept the all-or-nothing deal that the Trump administration proposed in Hanoi. If Washington continues to balk at an incremental approach, an exit from the current stalemate seems inconceivable. Nor does the North Korean proposal

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South Korea has a pivotal role to play in the processâ€™s coming phase. On his way home after the Hanoi summit, Trump called Moon from the plane and urged him to take an active role in persuading Kim to accept a big deal settlement. But Kim perceives Washington and Seoul as working together, which means that Moon will have a hard time acting as a facilitator. To help Moon succeed, Washington should allow Seoul some leverage, such as greater flexibility in managing interKorean economic exchange and cooperation. North and South Korean leaders adopted the Panmunjom and Pyongyang Declarations in 2018 to promote precisely these initiatives, and Moon is obliged to implement them in tandem with the denuclearization of North Korea. Otherwise, his role will be fundamentally limited. Seoul does not see the setback of the Hanoi summit as insurmountable. Prudence, mutual restraint, innovative ideas, and, most important, resumption of dialogue and negotiation can help overcome the current impasse. A compromise such as a comprehensive agreement on the exchange of FFVD for what Pyongyang wants, one that is implemented incrementally based on a mutually acceptable road map, is the surest way to achieve a breakthrough toward complete denuclearization and peace in Korea. This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs. com. * CHUNG-IN MOON is Special Adviser for Foreign Affairs and National Security to South Korean President Moon Jae-in and a Distinguished University Professor at Yonsei University.

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Can Putin Fix Russia’s Sputtering Economy? Why Stagnation Is the New Normal By Chris Miller* “Blatant disrespect” for Russia’s government can now land you in jail, under a new law the country’s legislature has passed. Worried that Russians are increasingly inclined to criticize the state or protest against it, the government is tightening the screws. Public support for the Kremlin and for Russian President Vladimir Putin has slumped in recent months. The government’s

popularity had spiked after Russia annexed the Ukrainian territory of Crimea in 2014, catapulting Putin’s approval rating to near 80 percent, where it remained for nearly five years. Yet that political magic is wearing thin. Over the past six months, Putin’s rating has crashed. True, the most recent poll by the Levada Center, an independent Russian polling organization, suggests that 64 percent of Russians continue to approve of Putin’s work as president. Yet that is the lowest number since 2013, when Putin

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“Blatant disrespect” for Russia’s government can now land you in jail, under a new law the country’s legislature has passed. Worried that Russians are increasingly inclined to criticize the state or protest against it, the government is tightening the screws

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during the Congress of RSPP (Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs) at Ritz Carlton Hotel on March ,14 2019 in Moscow, Russia. (Getty)

returned to the presidency amid anti-regime protests.

THE KREMLIN’S EMPTY PROMISES Russia’s citizens are gloomy about politics because of the country’s sputtering economy. Russia has had a miserable past five years. In 2014, two external shocks buffeted the country. First, oil prices collapsed, falling from above 100$ per barrel in

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2014 to barely 30$ per barrel in early 2016, slashing Russia’s largest source of export revenue. Second, the United States and Europe imposed tough financial sanctions that forced Russian firms to reduce investment and raised borrowing costs across the economy. As the ruble tanked, investment and consumption also declined. At the time, Russia’s leaders could, with some justification, blame outside forces for the economic downturn. Russia has no control over oil prices, which are set in a global market. And sanctions were the result of confrontation with the West. If you approved of the annexation of Crimea—as most Russians did— then you could not blame Putin for sanctions. Western financial restrictions were the cost of reasserting Russia’s stature on the world stage. Now five years have passed since the imposition of the first round of sanctions and the collapse of the price of oil, and for most Russians, things have scarcely improved. Oil prices are roughly twice their 2015 lows. The economy is growing again, albeit slowly. Yet typical Russians don’t feel any better off. In fact, they feel worse off. Adjusting for inflation, household disposable incomes have declined each of the past five years. It’s no wonder that Russians are beginning to ask questions. Each year has been worse than the one before. The government isn’t helping. Last year, it rammed through a controversial pension reform that will raise the retirement age from 55 to 60 for women and from 60 to 65 for men over the next several decades. With society rapidly aging and its pension system underfunded, the Russian government wasn’t wrong to think that something had to change. Yet most Russians rely primarily on their government pensions for retirement income, so this change will hit hard. And unlike sanctions, pension hikes cannot be blamed on NATO. Russians across the country were unhappy with the announced increase in the retirement age. Some even took to the streets, though the number of protesters wasn’t especially large. The Kremlin followed the pension change with a hike in the valueadded tax from 18 percent to 20 percent, the cost of which will be promptly passed on to consumers. This, too, will hit household

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incomes, making Russians feel poorer still. In his annual address to Russia’s Federal Assembly in late February, Putin assured Russians that he would make things better. He mentioned foreign policy, but the bulk of the speech focused on domestic reforms. More poor families will get aid to support children, he promised. Families with disabled children will receive a few thousand extra rubles per month. Those with multiple children will be given housing subsidies and lower interest rates on mortgages. And any family with three or more kids will get tax cuts on houses and landownership. It was a speech intended for struggling families, evidence that the Kremlin’s political advisers and spin doctors understand that they need to offer something more than geopolitical confrontation. But if the message was on target, the substance was not. Adding up the pledges in Putin’s speech, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov predicted that the promises would cost 100 billion to 120 billion rubles, or approximately 1.5$ billion, per year. Divide that by Russia’s population, approximately 140 million, and Putin’s new handouts amount to slightly more than 10$ per person per year. Even in a country such as Russia, where salaries are far lower than in the United States, this is small beans. Contrast the Kremlin’s promise of a 1.5$ billion increase in social spending, for example, with the country’s 390$ billion in foreign exchange reserves. Or consider the state-owned energy company Gazprom, which reported 15$ billion in profits in the first nine months of 2018. Or the 58 Russians who, according to Forbes, each have personal fortunes bigger than the spending boost that Putin promised. To really understand how underwhelming Putin’s spending promise is, however, compare it with the revenue this year’s tax hike will raise—around 8.9$ billion, according to the Finance Ministry. In other words, Russia’s government is decreasing household incomes via a substantial tax hike, giving back a small portion of that revenue through new social spending, and hoping

Over the next five years, Russia’s economy will barely grow, the country’s government forecasts predict. Given such dismal projections, in the absence of a new foreign crisis to rally around, Russians will probably judge the Kremlin’s policies to be stale.

that nobody notices the Kremlin is pocketing the rest. In any case, whether the Kremlin will follow through on its new spending promises is far from clear. Putin made a similar series of pledges in 2012, around the start of his previous presidential term, when he promised that he would hike salaries but not increase the retirement age. Five years later, many of these vows remained wholly unfulfilled. This time, fulfilling promises will be even harder. Russia’s provincial governments, which are often charged with implementing social programs, are in many cases now heavily indebted after five years of economic stagnation. The Kremlin knows, of course, that its promises aren’t that impressive. But Russia’s elite believes it has little room for maneuver as the country’s confrontation with the West intensifies. Most of Russia’s leaders believe that the United States plans to increase its financial pressure. The U.S. Senate is considering a bill that would sanction the issuance of new Russian sovereign debt, which in practice would limit Russia’s capacity to run a large budget deficit. Russia has long prepared for this type of foreign pressure with austere fiscal policies. But without a

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Women wave Russian flags to mark the fifth anniversary of Russia's annexation of Crimea, in Sevastopol on March 2019 ,16. (Getty)

growing economy, the populace will find government austerity more painful than before. The only other option for the Kremlin is to improve the business climate in ways that attract more Russian and foreign investors. Such moves, however, would also threaten the Kremlin’s ability to control Russian domestic politics. In many cases, the Russian government views foreign investors as a threat. One major American investor in Russia, Michael Calvey, was imprisoned in February on dubious charges. And improving the environment for domestic investors means reducing the power of the monopolistic state-owned firms—firms through which the Kremlin can exert power at home.

A STALE ECONOMY IS A STABLE ECONOMY Given these constraints, Russia’s government believes its best option is to hunker down. The Kremlin knew that tax hikes and pension cuts would make people unhappy. But amid a financial war with the West, Russian leaders ask, what

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choice does their country have? Expect more promises from the state, therefore, but don’t expect much to change. The Kremlin’s style of rule at home and confrontation with the West abroad have boxed it in. Over the next five years, Russia’s economy will barely grow, the country’s government forecasts predict. Given such dismal projections, in the absence of a new foreign crisis to rally around, Russians will probably judge the Kremlin’s policies to be stale. But stale can be stable, even if Putin’s approval rating slips further. New legislation tightening penalties for speech critical of the government is raising the cost of dissent. The risk of fines or arrest will dissuade most people from protesting against the dismal economic outlook. Russians are sadly used to economic stagnation and ineffective government—and they are unlikely to be offered an alternative anytime soon. This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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The Convincing Call from Central Europe: Let Us into NATO NATO Enlargement Turns 20 By M. E. Sarotte* Twenty years ago today, the first major post–Cold War expansion of NATO took place in an unlikely locale: Independence, Missouri. The Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland officially entered NATO in a ceremony at the Truman Library organized by the U.S. Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, herself a

refugee from Czechoslovakia. She had arranged for the accession ceremony to take place at the Missouri site to honor the president on whose watch the alliance had formed fifty years earlier. The foreign ministers of the new member-states got a ride to Missouri on the secretary’s plane and, while in flight, the Polish foreign minister, Bronislaw Geremek, expressed his gratitude to Albright. He told her that NATO enlargement was “the most

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The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic Jan Kavan (seated) signs the accession document that enters the Czech Republic into NATO 12 March 1999 at the Harry Truman library in Independence, MO. (Getty)

important event that has happened to Poland since the onset of Christianity.” Today historians hotly contest the matter of when, exactly, the idea arose to include central and eastern Europe in NATO. The timing is of more than academic interest, because Moscow’s grievance about when the West decided to make allies out of the countries in the region remains a hot-button issue in U.S.Russian relations to this day. Some scholars have dismissed the notion that the issue arose soon after the fall of the Berlin Wall at the end of 1989, saying it only came up much later, in the nineties. But evidence now available—including documents that I have gotten declassified from the George H. W. Bush Library and, most recently, the Clinton Presidential Library—shows that speculation about the role of the alliance in central Europe began early in the year 1990 among top policymakers. The evidence also shows that in the early to mid-nineties, the Czechs, the Hungarians, and above all the Poles campaigned vocally for accession, particularly after the Clinton team came into office. Given that the debate over NATO expansion often focuses on U.S.-Russian relations, it’s worth pausing over the importance of these countries’ own actions and wishes over the full course of the decade between 1989 and their accession. Central and eastern European states wanted to become members of the Western community and its institutions—rather than exist in a gray zone between the West and Russia—and to guard against a resurgent Russia. Eventually they succeeded. But first, they had to overcome Western hesitations. In fact, one of the earliest documented mentions of post–Cold War NATO expansion to central and eastern Europe was a German comment that it should not happen. In February 1990, the West German foreign minister, Hans-Dietrich Genscher, told his British counterpart that Moscow would presumably want, in exchange for allowing Germany to unify, assurances that the Atlantic alliance not move eastward, because “the Soviet Union needs the security of knowing that Hungary … will not become part of the Western alliance.” Genscher yearned to unify his home country—not least because his home town was behind the Iron Curtain, in East Germany—and was trying to preempt all possible objections. But central and eastern European governments had priorities of their own. Later the same month, the Hungarian foreign minister, Gyula Horn, publicly speculated about Hungary joining NATO. And at a meeting of Warsaw Pact foreign ministers in March 1990, when the Soviet foreign minister indicated his opposition to NATO’s moving eastward across Germany, he found himself completely alone, with no support from his central and eastern European colleagues. Reading the handwriting on the wall, the Soviet ambassador to West Germany determined that it was unsafe to rely on the Warsaw Pact, given how frail it was. In his opinion, Bonn could clearly, without straining, get “the help of Hungary, Poland, and Czechoslovakia” in order “to bring about the collapse of the Warsaw Pact in the shortest possible time.” As a result of such speculation, by March 1990 an early assessment had reached the desk of the U.S. Secretary of State, James Baker. In it, the secretary’s staff advised caution. While

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Reading the handwriting on the wall, the Soviet ambassador to West Germany determined that it was unsafe to rely on the Warsaw Pact, given how frail it was. central European states were understandably looking for guidance at a tumultuous time, the interest of the United States might not lie in taking on “the burden of ‘organizing’ this region,” it read, because “we alone do not have the means but … NATO and the EC surely do.” Put bluntly, the U.S. priority at the time was not helping central Europe; it was achieving German unification as swiftly as possible, in conjunction with German chancellor Helmut Kohl. But questions about the broader future of European security kept coming up. As Bush prepared for the May 1990 summit meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, Kohl advised him that Gorbachev “has big problems. His East European allies say they want to be in NATO.” Gorbachev’s adviser Anatoly Chernyaev had recently pointed out the obvious to his boss: “a possible entry by Poland into NATO would push the borders of the Western bloc up to the Soviet border.” Using the theory that the best defense is a good offense, Gorbachev had personally pressed the issue with Baker in May 1990, raising the astonishing thought that perhaps the Soviet Union might join NATO. As Gorbachev summarized his conversation with Baker to the French president, François Mitterrand, a few days afterward, he had told Baker that “we are aware of your favorable attitude toward the several representatives of east European states who have made their intention of leaving the Warsaw Pact known, in order to enter NATO later. But what would be the reaction of the U.S.A. if the USSR expressed a similar wish?” Once the U.S.-Soviet summit meeting started, on May 1990 ,31, it became clear that the fulcrum of the meeting was, indeed, the issue of whether NATO could move eastward beyond the 1989 line. Arguing that it should be able to do so, Bush skillfully cited the so-called Helsinki principle—the idea that countries had a right to choose their own security alliances, as stated in the Helsinki Final Act, which Moscow had signed. Gorbachev conceded the point, to the great consternation of his own delegation members, who were unable to counter Bush’s argument in any meaningful way. At that moment Bush and Gorbachev were negotiating over Germany, but Gorbachev’s endorsement of the Helsinki principle had implications for central and eastern Europe as well, since they had also signed on to the same accord. A delegation from the think tank RAND, visiting Warsaw shortly after the summit, was surprised when a Polish general asked how his country could

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get U.S. forces stationed on Polish territory. The question led to an extended debate over the costs and benefits of potential Polish membership in NATO, with the RAND delegation staying “up late with our new Polish friends drinking vodka and trying to explain … how the U.S. might help secure central Europe’s newly won freedom.” The combination of Bush’s success at the Washington summit and Kohl’s financial generosity toward Moscow later that summer ultimately secured the necessary Soviet approval for German unification in October 1990—without the concessions over NATO that Genscher had feared might be necessary. In fact, the final settlement on Germany, which Moscow signed in September 1990, explicitly allowed NATO to begin moving eastward over the 1989 line. But by then, Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait had reoriented U.S. priorities away from Europe. The Gulf War and the collapse of the Soviet Union dominated U.S. foreignpolicy making in 1991 and early 1992, and the U.S. presidential election then took priority for the remainder of 1992. The Bush team’s time was up when Bill Clinton won. With Clinton in office, central and eastern European leaders took every opportunity to bring the question of their region’s future in NATO to the new administration’s attention. In April 1993, for example, the United States invited leaders from the region to the opening of the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington. Leaders such as Czech President Vaclav Havel and Polish leader Lech Walesa met with Clinton behind the scenes. Havel urged the U.S. president to save them from “living in a vacuum. That is why we want to join NATO. In addition, in our values and spirit, we are part of Western Europe.” As a result, Havel was focused “on entering NATO and the EC [European Community] because we see ourselves as Europeans who embrace European values.” Walesa was blunter in his own talk with Clinton: “We are all afraid of Russia … If Russia again adopts an aggressive foreign policy, that aggression will be directed toward Ukraine and Poland.” Over the course of the next year, Walesa’s language grew increasingly insistent with every conversation he had with the Americans. He lamented that NATO had missed an easy

Washington worked together with NATO leaders to ensure that, in 1997, the alliance would invite Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic to begin the necessary political and military preparations for accession two years later.

opportunity to expand to the east, namely, “during the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.” Now, in the Clinton era, it was “already too late to stop Russia’s full control over the Commonwealth of Independent States,” and Walesa worried that Moscow “won’t stop at the old Soviet frontier.” When his American interlocutors expressed concern about upsetting Russia, Walesa was unfazed: “Let the Russian generals get upset … They won’t launch a nuclear war.” At one point, Walesa tried to take matters into his own hands. He succeeded in getting Yeltsin to join him for an August 1993 dinner in Warsaw, where the alcohol reportedly flowed unusually freely. Walesa got Yeltsin to issue a statement indicating that Russia would not oppose Polish membership in NATO. Walesa immediately alerted Washington to the opportunity, but to his intense disappointment, Washington still hesitated, and Yeltsin’s aides soon found ways to walk the agreement back. At the start of 1994, Walesa and other Poles complained to their American counterparts that if “no obvious fruits materialized … then they might have to look for ‘other arrangements.’” Although Walesa did not get the instant NATO membership that he hoped for after his dinner with Yeltsin, his arguments and those of his central European peers had nonetheless planted

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US President Bill Clinton (L) poses with Solidarity founder and former Polish President Lech Walesa in the courtyard at the Royal Castle before their meeting 10 July in Warsaw, Poland. Clinton is in Poland to underscore his commitment to expanding NATO. (Getty)

seeds that would later bear fruit. Members of the RAND group who had visited Warsaw in 1990, for example, would go on to write a series of influential papers and articles calling for NATO expansion throughout the early 1990s. The Republican Party voiced support for enlargement in its 1994 midterm campaigns. And, most important, the appeals from leaders in central and eastern Europemade a deep impression on the U.S. president. Ever the consummate domestic politician, Clinton signaled his support for NATO expansion by giving a major speech in a heavily Polish suburb of Detroit in late 1996. The U.S. president had come to the conclusion that right was on the side of the countries that had suffered behind the Iron Curtain. Once both Yeltsin and Clinton were safely elected to second terms and reinstalled in office, Washington worked together with NATO leaders to ensure that, in 1997, the alliance would invite Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic to begin the necessary political and military preparations for accession two years later, during the alliance’s fiftieth-anniversary year. Today we speak of NATO expansion almost exclusively in the context of tensions between the United States and Russia. But that history should not obscure the one that belongs to central and eastern Europeans, whose own actions in the decade after the fall of Wall in 1989 had much to do with their countries’ accession to the alliance in 1999. Their calls to be let into NATO—exploratory in 1990, but increasingly insistent throughout the nineties—were ultimately persuasive and played no small role in the start of NATO expansion twenty years ago today. This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com. *M. E. SAROTTE is the Marie-Josée and Henry R. Kravis Distinguished Professor of Historical Studies at Johns Hopkins SAIS and the author of The Collapse: The Accidental Opening of the Berlin Wall.

Former Polish president Lech Walesa during a visit to the European Solidarity Centre and Monument to the Fallen Shipyard Workers of 1970 in Gdansk, the birthplace of Poland's Solidarity movement that helped topple Communist rule on July 2017 ,18 in Gdansk, Poland. (Getty)

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Struggling with Cat Shedding and Cyberbullying ‘Captain Marvel’ Actress Lashana Lynch on Working with ‘Star’ Cat Reggie and Dealing with Trolls 32

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By Sonaiya Kelley* Despite sharing scenes in “Captain Marvel” with veterans including Annette Bening, Ben Mendelsohn and Samuel L. Jackson, up-and-coming actress Lashana Lynch says she learned the most working with Reggie, the star among the four cats who plays the blockbuster’s breakout scene-stealer Goose. “It’s interesting working with animals, man,” she said. “You just need to let them be free. But in turn you just have to be free yourself as well. You learn from the animal.” Though an invaluable scene partner, Reggie was not without his diva-like tendencies. “He was like, ‘No, I’m No.1 on the call sheet,’” Lynch said with a laugh. “‘You’re going to respect me when I walk on set.’ He was just out here demanding all the things and he ate so much. Every single time he would look away or be like ‘Ugh, I don’t really want to be here,’ he’d get fed! And I’m like, ‘What do I need to do to get me a snack?’”

Lashana Lynch and Brie Larson attend the ‹Captain Marvel European Gala› held at The Curzon Mayfair on February 2019 ,27 in London, England. (Getty)

The British actress has her own breakout turn as fighter pilot Maria Rambeau in “Captain Marvel,” the Marvel Cinematic Universe’s 21st release and first headlined by a standalone female superhero. Oscar winner Brie Larson fills the suit of the titular heroine, also known as Carol Danvers. In lieu of a romantic relationship, the friendship between Danvers and Rambeau serves as the film’s emotional through line and is put to the test when Danvers disappears for six years, only to return with superpowers and a new Kree identity. “To mourn someone for six years, have them come back and be like, ‘Oh, by the way, I can like shoot photon blasts out my hands,’ and have your friend be like, ‘I missed you all this time! But remember that you’re enough,’ that’s special, man! That’s a special friendship,” Lynch said during a recent press day in Los Angeles ahead of the film’s world premiere. “Maria and Carol are just two women living in their truth, silently accepting each other’s cultures and just supporting each other,” she added. “It’s nice to see two women just be kind to each other and have each other’s back.” After spending for two years auditioning for various Marvel roles, Lynch, who previously headlined the short-lived period ABC soap “Still Star-Crossed” from Shonda Rhimes, jumped at the chance to play Rambeau, an ambitious fighter pilot and mother to a young daughter, Monica. “I don’t believe anything happens before its time so I’m very happy that I landed a role in [a film] that is centered around themes that I hold very dear to my

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Actress Lashana Lynch says she learned the most working with Reggie, the star among the four cats who plays the blockbuster’s breakout scene-stealer Goose. heart,” she said. “Landing Maria was a no-brainer, really. I mean, it’s Marvel. To be a part of the MCU was a special thing for me. So even if it was someone that was like a tiny little alien that just popped up [once], I’d be like — ‘I’ll take it!’ “You just want to do a good job. I’m representing so many communities: women, black women, fighter pilots, the whole of the military and single mothers. So is that a big responsibility? Yes. Is it something I was willing to take on? Absolutely.” The film’s version of Rambeau is a drastic departure from the character in the comics. “[In the comics] she’s a seamstress who is a really lovely Southern woman,” said Lynch. “And I’m out here disciplining my child and flying jets and stuff.” Along with Larson, Lynch trained with the military for two days and flew in an F16- jet in preparation for the role. “That’s a tiny space,” she said. “You know when you’re on a really bad cheap flight and your feet are like, ‘Where do I go?’ That’s kind of what a jet feels like.” In addition to working with animals and a precocious young actress, Akira Akbar as Monica (“She’s brilliant,” said Lynch. “I feel like I need to hire her as my acting coach”), Lynch also had the opportunity to work with some living legends, including Bening, who also makes her MCU debut, and Jackson, a recurring player who gets to flash back to his character’s younger days. “Annette has a really theatrical way of working,” Lynch recalled. “She approaches her work, from what I could deduce, by tuning into herself and warming up, making sure she’s ready for every single take. Whereas Sam is completely relaxed because he’s been part of Marvel for a long time and he knows his way around. “It was nice to see the contrast between a veteran who has been a part of this franchise and knows what to do and a veteran who knows what to do generally but is

ulture

new to this side of the game. It just reminded me that we’re all brand-new to this first experience. No one has shot ‘Captain Marvel’ before, so it was all of our first day at school.” A few years ago, Jackson made headlines for criticizing the casting of black British actors as African Americans in films, including Jordan Peele’s “Get Out.” Lynch, a London native, says she didn’t bring up the topic with Jackson so as not to disturb the atmosphere on set. “I try to surround myself with the best energy when I go to work,” she said. “So if I’m creating a bad energy through asking something that I feel a bit uncomfortable about, then I’ve only really brought it on myself. But I find it interesting that this conversation is still happening, and I find it interesting that people are turning to the actors for the answers. The real people to ask are the creators, casting directors and the execs. “I don’t think it’s like everyone’s coming in an influx. No one questioned Idris Elba when he was doing a brilliant job on ‘The Wire.’ No one questioned Marianne Jean-Baptiste when she was doing a brilliant job in ‘Without a Trace.’ I would feel like a boring actor if I was just acting in my own accent, in my own town, with people that I know for the rest of my life. I want to experience the world as a human, and I want to my characters to be able to be experienced in this world as well.” Even before its release, “Captain Marvel” was targeted online by misogynistic trolls who griped about Larson’s outspoken stance on political issues and diversity in filmmaking. They also complained that she doesn’t smile enough and could not possibly be strong enough to embody one of the most formidable

heroes in the MCU. “People are always going to have crap to say,” said Lynch with an eye roll. “It’s very easy to hide behind your screen because I’m very sure that the people who are out there chitchatting away wouldn’t say the same thing to her face. But if they did, they’d realize that woman is intelligent as hell and she will give you a run for your money. So they can keep talking. It’s shining more light on our film and people are still going to watch it. “Captain Marvel is a role model for women because she is representing someone who knew her power, had it taken away from her and then has to relearn her power, which is what all women go through,” she added. “At one point we know that we’re strong and we know that we can do it. And then someone or something knocks us down, and we need reminding.” Like “Black Panther,” “Captain Marvel” arrives at the perfect time when women are relearning their power on a collective scale. Lynch is just grateful that a studio with a reach like Marvel’s was able to recognize that. “It’s the best support to have,” she said. “There’s a lot of men in the studios, a lot of older men. We can’t just do all the work ourselves and expect things to change. We also need men to realize that it’s good to change and to just ride the wave because it’s going to happen regardless of if you’re supporting us or not.”

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Actor Lashana Lynch attends the Los Angeles World Premiere of Marvel Studios› ‹Captain Marvel› at Dolby Theatre on March 2019 ,4 in Hollywood, California. (Getty)

Up next, Lynch will star as Agent 355 in the TV adaptation of the fan favorite comic series “Y: The Last Man” on FX. But because “Captain Marvel” takes place in the ‘90s and Danvers will next be seen in April’s “Avengers: Endgame,” which takes place in the present or near future, Marvel fans have been speculating about the possibility of Lynch returning as the older version of Monica. “That would be really cool,” she said. “Monica is dope. But also, I’ve been given an opportunity to play a woman of color in the MCU. It’d be great to give someone else an opportunity to feel that experience. “You can’t be hogging like! I’ve had an opportunity. This movie is going to do what it’s going to do for me. I was the one that was like next in line trying to wait for my opportunity. “Now I’ve had it [and] I’m going to try and run with it,” she added. “Someone else needs theirs, and I’m hoping it’s someone younger than me as well who gets their time.” Originally published in LA Times *Sonaiya Kelley is a reporter at the Los Angeles Times. The New York native previously served as a digital producer at Essence and Allure magazines.

Reggie the Cat on the set of Captain Marvel (Instagram/jordanwoulddoit)

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

Issue 1740 - March - 22/03/2019

Natasha Choufani: I Still Get Nervous in Front of the Camera www.majalla.com

Jacinda Ardern: A Symbol of Tolerance and Hope

New Zealand’s Prime Minister Faces Her Hardest Challenge By Ali El Shamy 1. Jacinda was born on July 1980 ,26 in Hamilton, New Zealand. Her upbringing taught her the importance of public service, as her father was a police officer while her mother worked as a schoolcatering assistant. 2. It was her aunt, however, who introduced the young Jacinda to the world of politics. Aunt Marie Arden was a veteran member of the New Zealand Labour Party, and in 1999 she recruited Jacinda to be part of Labour MP Harry Duynhoven’s reelection campaign. 3. She would then attend the University of Waikato and in 2001 she graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in politics and public relations. 4. She would eventually join the Labour Party and show her leadership skills early on as she became a senior figure in Young Labour, the youth division of the party. 5. During her early political career, she worked as a researcher at the offices of MP Phil Goff and former Prime Minister Helen Clark, respectively. 6. She then moved to London and became a senior policy advisor to former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. It should be noted that she never actually met Blair during his premiership, as she was part of an

-80person team. 7. Jacinda is a critic of capitalism as she cited it as a cause of homelessness in New Zealand. Moreover, in 2008 she became the President of the International Union of Socialist Youth. 8. By 2008, she rose to up the ladder of her party as she ranked 20th in the Labour party list, this was no doubt a testament to her hard work and perseverance. 9. This encouraged her to return from London and run for the seat in Waikato, but she subsequently lost the vote. Nevertheless, her high rank within the party and the unique electoral system in New Zealand enabled her to become a list MP in parliament. 10. Phil Goff, who was at the time the leader of opposition, promoted her to the front bench and appointed her as the party’s spokesperson for youth affairs. 11. In the 2011 election she ran for and lost the seat for Auckland Central, but since she was ranked 13th in the Labour list, she remained a list MP. This time was also appointed Shadow Cabinet Spokesperson for Social Development. 12. The 2014 election was a rinse and repeat of 2011, as she failed to win the Auckland Central seat, but she was ranked even higher than last time as she

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was 5th in the Labour list. This time the leader of opposition appointed her Shadow Spokesperson for Justice, Children and Small Business. 13. Her big moment came in 2017. In that year, as Labour MP David Shearer stepped down from his seat in Mount Albert. Jacinda latched on to this golden opportunity and ran unopposed in the Mount Albert by election and finally became an elected MP. Fortune would continue to smile at Jacinda as Annette King, the incumbent deputy Labour leader at the time, resigned from her post. Shortly afterward, Jacinda was elected as Labour’s new deputy leader. 14. Then on August 1, Labour leader Andrew Little resigned due to the party’s low polling. That same day, a Labour party caucus meeting took place to elect a new leader and Jacinda was then unanimously elected. Thanks to a series of fortunate events, Jacinda went from a list MP to New Zealand’s leader of opposition. She was now only the second woman to become leader of the Labour Party. 15. Jacinda revitalised the Labour party as she proved to be a popular politician across New Zealand, also for the first time in years the Labour party was polling higher than the New Zealand National Party.

16. As a progressive, she has campaigned in favour various issues such as decriminalising abortion, legalizing recreational cannabis use and a two-state solution for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. 17. After the 2017 General Election, no party was able to command a majority in government. As such, Jacinda formed a coalition with the New Zealand First Party enabling her to become the new Prime Minister of New Zealand. 18. Her darkest hour would eventually come on

March 2019 ,15. On that day a white nationalist terrorist killed at least 50 Muslims at two Mosques in Christchurch during Friday prayers. This was the deadliest terrorist attack in the countryâ€™s history and the first one since 1985. 19. As Prime Minister, she led the countryâ€™s mourning process, as she was the first person to sign a national condolence book. She also met with family members of the victims and the wider Christchurch Muslim community while wearing a

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hijab, thus becoming a symbol of love and tolerance in a world of rising hate and xenophobia. She did not want the 50 victims to die in vain as she instantly took action to tighten gun laws, among the new legislations that her government issued was a national ban on assault rifles. 20. Jacinda Ardern has now set an example for other world leaders on how to respond to a crisis and how to ensure that everyone within their states feels safe and welcome.

Natasha Choufani: I Still Get Nervous in Front of the Camera «I›m currently filming a series called “Mas’ala Waqt” (A Matter of Time), which is set to air during Ramadan» By: Nour El Huda Bahlaq Beirut: Natasha Choufani is a young and up in coming Lebanese actress who has already made her mark on the small screen and is sure to become a big star in the near future. In recent years, she appeared in critically acclaimed shows such as “El Heiba 2” (Prestige 2), “Ikterab El Hay” (The Neighborhood was Vandalized), “Nos Youm” (Half a Day), “Dwa’ir Hob” (Circles of Love) “Bint Al Shahbandar” (Shahbandar’s Daughter), “Abreya w Leken” (Innocent But...), “Kefa” (Enough). Audiences absolutely fell in love with Choufani’s complex characters in “B’ Lahza” (In a Moment) and “W Rad Gouri” (And Gouri Replied). She is still receiving high praise for her performance in the ongoing series “Ma Feye” (What’s Inside Me). We recently sat down with starlet and she spoke to us about her career and future roles. Q: In addition to “B’Lehza” and “Ma Feya”, do have any new projects that you’re working on? Will any of these shows air during the Ramadan season? A: I am currently traveling between Kuwait, Syria and Lebanon to finish filming a series called “Mas’ala Waqt” (A Matter of Time), which is set to air during Ramadan. The series also stars Mohamed El Alawy, Zeina Makki and Elie Mitri. I am also filming another Ramadan series called “Maqamat El Ashq” (Adoration Levels), where I play “Nezam” the girlfriend of “Ibn Araby”, a character played by Youssef El Khal. The series also stars Nesrin Tafesh and other actors. Another project I’m involved in is “Sanae El Ahlam” (The Creator of Dreams), a series produced by Mofeed El Rafai.

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Q: Tell us more about your role in “Masalat Waqt”. A: The show’s plot is quite simple, it’s about a group of girlfriends who study at the same university and I play one of said friends. My character is not cliché, robotic and one dimensional, rather she’s natural and feels like a real human being. Q: Most of your previous works have been in dramas and you mostly play characters that have been hit with woe and tragedy. Are there any upcoming projects where you will play a different kind of role? A: I often ask myself the same question, and have previously asked directors to place me in more lighthearted and simple roles. However, the problem is that when directors see a certain actor’s performance, they always envision him or her in the same kind of role, which then reflects certain casting decisions. Fortunately, I am involved in a number of projects where I will play different roles that audiences aren’t used to seeing.

All actors love cinema and seek to work in its industry. But, I have not found a role that suits me. Q: Will we ever see you in a comedic role? A: I have appeared in many comedies before. For instance, I appeared in a comedy that starred Georges Khabbazz and I also acted in the Emirati sit-com “Giran” (Neighbors). I really love comedies, even though I find them harder to act in. Once I find a comedic role that’s a perfect fit for me, I will instantly audition for it. Q: Would you like to appear on stage with Georges Khabbazz again?

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A: Performing on stage isn’t easy, but it isn’t beyond ambitions. I have certain personal goals in regards to stage performance and I intend to achieve them.

a convincing performance for the audience while avoiding any mistakes. Now that show has aired, I feel that responsibility I have toward my acting has increased.

Q: What do you think of the current state of Lebanese theater? A: Lebanese theater is vibrant, this is because people have a demand for it and strive to perfect the trade. As such, directors and actors organize theater performances which become big hits, it is also important to note that organizers hold these wonderful plays without any funding from the government.

Q: How do you approach your roles? Do you ever fear that you’ll put out a bad performance? A: I get nervous before I start any role and always feel as if it’s my first ever acting experience. I was anxious before I started acting in “Ma Feye” because the character I play is complex. Nevertheless, thanks to the director, Rasha Sharbatgy, I was able to put out a performance that I never thought I could do. Rasha Sharbatgy truly has a unique and special vision when it comes to directing.

Q: Have you considered working in the film industry? A: All actors love cinema and seek to work in its industry. But, I have not found a role that suits me. Once a good film role turns up, I will grab on to it. Lebanese cinema has been hugely successful in recent years, so much so that some Lebanese films have made on to the world stage. Q: With the recent success of your performances, do you think you now have greater responsibility when it comes to your work? A: My role in “Ma Feye” was a complicated one, since Lara, the character I played, would change and act differently from one scene to the next. I had to put on

Q: Do you pick your roles based on its importance to the plot, or based on the character’s personality? A: I don’t focus on such things, I only focus on the role I was chosen to do and put all my energy into bringing out my best possible performance. I am sure that my chance to play the protagonist will come in its own time. Q: I get the feeling that you’re nervous; do you still get shy during press interviews? A: Yes, I still feel anxious when I’m in the media spotlight; this is part of my personality and I will probably not change as it is engrained into my nature. Q: How would you describe your relationship with your fans? A: I love my fans a lot and adore when they send me screenshots of the scenes I appear in. However, I aim to be their friends rather than a perfect figure which they place on a pedestal. I also have a WhatsApp group with my fans which I use to interact with them. Additionally, I sometimes plan out shared projects for them to take part in; that is after they get their parents’ permission of course.

I only focus on the role I was chosen to do and put all my energy into bringing out my best possible performance. I am sure that my chance to play the protagonist will come in its own time. 42

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ealth

Effective Supplement or Placebo? Should You be Taking an Omega3- Supplement? Harvard The answer to that question is becoming clearer, thanks to new research. Some %10 of American adults regularly take an omega3supplement, despite uncertainty about whether these products truly live up to their health claims. But two new studies published in November 2018 shed some light on who might benefit from omega3- supplements — and who probably won’t.

VITAL

The first study was the Vitamin D and Omega3- Trial (VITAL), a large multiyear study with 25,871 healthy adults with no history of cardiovascular (heart or blood vessel–related) disease and at “usual risk” for it. The group was racially diverse and chosen to be representative of the general population, says the study’s lead author Dr. JoAnn E. Manson, professor of medicine and the Michael and Lee Bell Professor of Women’s Health at Harvard Medical School.

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If you’re healthy and at low or average risk for heart disease, chances are you don’t need an omega3- supplement, provided you eat fish often, says Dr. Manson. reduce major cardiovascular events over all, there was a %28 reduction in heart attacks and promising signals for other heartrelated endpoints, she says. While the supplement didn’t seem to protect most healthy people against future heart problems, certain groups did appear to benefit, particularly people who ate less than 1.5 servings of fish a week or didn’t eat fish at all. “For these people, there was a significant %19 reduction in the primary endpoint of major cardiovascular events, with a %40 reduction in heart attacks,” says Dr. Manson. The supplements also appeared to benefit African American participants, who saw a %77 reduction in heart attack for those receiving the omega3- supplement, compared with those taking the placebo, says Dr. Manson. It’s unclear why this group benefited more, and additional studies are needed to confirm the finding.

REDUCE-IT

Researchers tested, among other things, whether a moderate dosage (1 gram a day) of an omega3- supplement could help prevent major cardiovascular events, compared with a placebo. Cardiovascular events included not only heart attacks, but stroke, and angioplasty procedures to clear blocked arteries. “The findings are somewhat complex and nuanced. It’s not a simple yes, or no, or one-size-fits-all answer. Some groups tended to benefit, while other groups didn’t,” says Dr. Manson. Although a daily -1gram omega3- supplement did not significantly

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The second study, called the Reduction of Cardiovascular Events with EPA–Intervention Trial (REDUCE-IT), included more than 8,000 middle-aged and older adults who had elevated triglyceride levels and who had already experienced a cardiovascular event or had other significant risk factors for one. It aimed to find out if a daily high-dose, -4gram prescription omega3- medication could protect participants against future cardiovascular events, compared with a placebo. This trial, led by Dr. Deepak Bhatt, a cardiologist and professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School, found a substantial %25 reduction in the risk of dying from heart disease or suffering a cardiovascular event among people who took the medication, compared with those who had the placebo. High doses of omega3- supplements, like the high-dose omega3product used in this trial, aren’t appropriate for everyone because they pose risks, such as bleeding or an increase in a type of abnormal heart rhythm known as atrial fibrillation, says Dr. Manson. “However, while high doses are associated with some risk, overall benefits of the high-dose omega3- product used in the trial appeared to outweigh the risks for people with high triglyceride levels and a history of, or at high risk of, cardiovascular disease,” says Dr. Manson. Choosing the right supplement Looking for an over-the-counter omega3- supplement? Here’s

ealth

what to look for: < A -1gram dose,unless your doctor recommends more. < A combination of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). Each of these fatty acids provides different health benefits. If your triglyceride levels are abnormally high and you have an elevated risk for cardiovascular disease, talk to your doctor about whether a high-dose omega3- prescription might be an option.

PUTTING THE FINDINGS TO THE TEST So, what do these findings mean for you? People in good health. If you’re healthy and at low or average risk for heart disease, chances are you don’t need an omega3supplement, provided you eat fish often, says Dr. Manson. You should eat at least two servings a week of fatty fish, such as salmon, tuna, or herring. Aim for fish that are high in two different omega3- fatty acids, eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), each of which provides unique health benefits. Getting your omega3- fatty acids from food is always preferable to a supplement. Not only do you get the marine omega3- fatty acids from the fish, but you also potentially replace less healthful foods in your diet, such as red meat, processed foods, or refined grains, says Dr. Manson. “It’s a good lifestyle change to make and has been a recommendation for a while. Nothing in these studies supersedes the recommendation for moderate fish intake,” she says. Non–fish eaters and African Americans. However, if you can’t eat fish or don’t like fish, an omega3- supplement is something to consider. (Algae-based supplements are an option if you are a vegetarian or allergic to fish.) African Americans might also consider a supplement because of the unique benefits revealed in this trial. For these two groups, a daily -1gram supplement could provide a good balance between safety and efficacy. “Talk to your health care provider about whether you’re a candidate for a supplement,” says Dr. Manson. Already taking omega3-s? If you’re already taking an over-the-

Regardless of whether you opt for an omega3- supplement, you should always strive to maintain a healthy diet and lifestyle.

counter omega3- supplement, you don’t necessarily need to stop taking it if you don’t fall into one of the categories above, unless your doctor tells you to. But if you’re not taking an omega3supplement, whether you should start really depends on your individual risk factors, says Dr. Manson. Regardless of whether you opt for an omega3- supplement, you should always strive to maintain a healthy diet and lifestyle. “No dietary supplement is a substitute. We already know that, and I think this is an important point to reinforce,” says Dr. Manson. “Healthy lifestyle practices, including regular physical activity, healthy diet, and not smoking, will reduce heart disease risk by close to %80, and that’s really the main recommendation for heart health,” she says. Cardiovascular risk factors. If you have an elevated triglyceride level and a history of cardiovascular disease or have major risk factors for it, a high-dose omega3- medication may be advisable. This is true even if you’re already taking a statin medication. The omega3- drug does not replace the statin. Fast facts about the two trials The Vitamin D and Omega3- trial (VITAL) This study was published online Nov. 2018 ,10, by The New England Journal of Medicine. Funding source: The U.S. National Institutes of Health. Who: 25,871 healthy, racially diverse individuals, including 12,786 men ages 50 and older and 13,085 women ages 55 and older. What: A daily -1gram omega3- prescription supplement that

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Foods high in omega three, studio shot. (Getty)

had already experienced a heart attack, stroke, or cardiovascular event. Risk factors included conditions such as high blood pressure and diabetes. Everyone in the trial was taking a statin to reduce high cholesterol. What: A daily high-dose, -4gram prescription omega3- medication or a placebo. Unlike over-the-counter omega3-s, the medication included EPA only. Key takeaways: This medication may help to protect high-risk individuals from cardiovascular events. Those taking it were %25 less likely to die from heart disease or to have a heart attack, stroke, or a type of chest pain called angina. They were also less likely to need a procedure to open a blocked heart artery. If you have a high triglyceride level and have had a heart attack or stroke or have risk factors for cardiovascular disease, you might benefit from taking the high-dose omega3- product. STAY TUNED While these two studies revealed some new knowledge about the potential benefits of omega3- supplements, more information will likely be available in the near future. VITAL also examined the effect of omega3- supplementation on cognitive decline, diabetes, depression, and autoimmune disorders, among other conditions, and those results will be published within the next year, says Dr. Manson.

included a combination of two omega3- fatty acids, eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). A -1gram dose was chosen because it is a moderate amount that is unlikely to produce side effects. A control group took a placebo. Key takeaways: < Omega3- supplements likely won’t benefit people who eat at least 1.5 servings of fish per week. < Omega3- supplements may benefit people with low fish consumption or those with African American heritage. The Reduction of Cardiovascular Events with EPA–Intervention Trial (REDUCE-IT) This study was published online Nov. 2018 ,10, by The New England Journal of Medicine. Funding source: Amarin, Inc., the company that makes the prescription-strength medication used in the study. Who: 8,179 middle-aged men and women who had high triglyceride levels and risk factors for heart disease or

*Originally published in Harvard Women›s Health Watch

Woman taking an Omega3- capsule.

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