SPEAKERS’ CORNER: KISHORE MAHBUBANI
THE POWERS THAT BE A distinguished diplomat, academic, and author, Professor Kishore Mahbubani has dedicated five decades of his life to public service. Twice Singapore’s Ambassador to the United Nations, he also served as President of the U.N. Security Council in 2001 and 2002. Mahbubani recently published his tenth book, ‘Living the Asian Century: An Undiplomatic Memoir’, and in September he spoke on the subject of U.S.-China relations at a lunch engagement at the FCC. By: Hugo Novales
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rofessor Kishore Mahbubani has spent decades examining the complex dynamics of global geopolitics, particularly the relationship between the United States and China. As a former Singaporean Ambassador to the United Nations and the Founding Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, Mahbubani’s numerous books provide knowledgeable insights into the historical and cultural contexts that shape contemporary international relations. In his address to the audience at the FCC, Mahbubani dissected the structural strengths and weaknesses of both China and the U.S., emphasising the ongoing and accelerating rivalry between the two nations. He warned of a “great tragedy” unfolding in the next decade if both sides fail to manage their relationship constructively. His perspective is not based on media reporting, but on his studied understanding of the historical and cultural contexts that have shaped contemporary international relations. According to Mahbubani, the fractured U.S.- China relationship is not simply a struggle between two governments, but a confrontation involving the lack of knowledge and understanding of the world’s oldest continuous civilisation - China. He pointed out that many American policymakers overlook China’s 4,000year history, often framing the discourse between the two countries within a narrow lens of ideological conf lict with the Chinese Communist Party. This historical ignorance, he argues, leads to a lack of strategic depth in American policy, which if not addressed, has the potential to exacerbate the existing tension. He also highlighted the psychological impact of the ‘Century of Humiliation’ (from the Opium Wars to the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949), a period that still deeply inf luences modern Chinese identity and policy-making. This also provides insight into China’s assertive stance in the face of perceived threats from the U.S. Mahbubani outlined several strengths that China possesses, including its vast population, a strong work ethic, and a long history of resilience in the face of challenges, which contribute to the country’s ability to mobilise resources and innovate rapidly. Conversely, he
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noted significant weaknesses, including demographic challenges - China’s population is aging in parallel with declining birthrates – as well as the alienation of the American business community, which has historically served as a buffer against aggressive U.S. policies. On the other hand, Mahbubani acknowledged the U.S. as a historically powerful society with a culture of innovation. He praised the entrepreneurial spirit of Americans, which has led to the creation of globally influential companies like Microsoft, Apple and Amazon. However, in terms of foreign policy, he warned that the U.S. must develop a comprehensive plan in order to engage with China effectively. “As the United States applies pressure and imposes sanctions and tariffs, the Chinese simply say: ‘Well, you’ve done this before; we understand that you’re trying to dominate us, and we’ll make sure that this time you don’t succeed,’” he noted. “The United States has launched a contest against China without working out a long-term strategy, and anyone who has studied history knows that if you decide to go into a contest with another power and you don’t have a strategy, you’re shooting yourself in the foot, and I say this with some confidence because the person who gave me this insight was Henry Kissinger in one-on-one conversations that I had with him - first in 2018 and then in 2022, a year before he died.” Another major weakness for the United States, Mahbubani contends, is its metamorphosis into a “functional plutocracy” that has stagnated the financial status of the bottom 50 percent of Americans for several decades. The alienation of this group, especially the white working class and their “white-lash” against the rising power of racial minorities, is what Mahbubani believes led to Trump’s election in 2016 and his potential re-election in 2024 - which would then make Trump America’s number one weakness. Mahbubani also explained how Americans’ emotional responses to internal politics have also carried into U.S.China relations. Noting historical U.S. legislation such as the Chinese Racial Exclusion Act of 1882 and recurring themes of “yellow peril” in American entertainment, media, and various fictional characters, he believes that it’s important to dig deeper into the American psyche and unroot the emotional aspect that continues to affect U.S. policy towards China.
THE CORRESPONDENT | OCTOBER 2024
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11/10/2024 10:04 PM