CATEGORY FORECAST
STUDY 2023
Not So Great Expectations
Inflation is pushing dollar sales up, but most retailers don’t expect considerable change in how much consumers will actually buy in the coming months By Angela Hanson WHEN ASKED TO share their predictions for the coming year, it seems convenience store operators don’t need to imagine the possibilities because for many, the future is now. 2023 is likely to see the continuation of many 2022 trends, with rising prices and ongoing supply chain snags contributing to differing expectations for dollar sales and unit volume across product categories, according to the 2023 Convenience Store News Forecast Study.
Prepared food is the only category for which the majority of c-store retailers expect to see both dollar sales and unit volume increase. For all others, opinions are mixed, with some categories projected to see an increase in dollar sales but not unit volume, and others projected to remain static in both measurements. Motor fuels and cigarettes have the greatest projected disparity, and cigarettes is the only category for which an outright majority of retailers expect a decrease in unit volume. As a silver lining, some categories this year are seeing an increased percentage of retailers making positive sales predictions, indicating a level of underlying optimism among some, even if that sentiment isn’t held by the majority. Here are the individual category forecasts for 2023, according to c-store retailers:
MOTOR FUELS At first glance, the outlook on motor fuels is rosy: 56 percent of retailers expect average dollar sales per store to increase in 2023, while just 14 percent expect dollar sales to decrease. However, this is largely predicated on increased inflation driving costs up, as only 18 percent expect average gallons sold per store to increase and 34 percent believe gallons will decrease. Company size makes a clear difference in expectations. More large operators than small operators predict average dollar sales will rise this year (62 percent vs. 52 percent, respectively). When it comes to gallon sales, though, 44 percent of large
Category Forecast: Motor Fuels
14%
18%
Decrease
Increase
30%
56%
Stay the same
Increase
34%
DOLLAR SALES
Stay the same
GALLONS
Category Forecast: Cigarettes
27%
7%
59%
Decrease
Increase
Decrease
37%
Stay the same
34%
Stay the same
36%
Increase
DOLLAR SALES
UNIT VOLUME
Source: Convenience Store News 2023 Forecast Study
operators say average gallons sold per store will decrease, compared to 26 percent of small operators. Study participants pointed to supply chain challenges, geopolitical issues affecting fuel pricing and availability, and evolving consumer behavior as some of the notable trends that will affect the motor fuels category in the year ahead. “Less miles driven equals less gallons purchased,” summarized one operator.
J ANUARY
37-45.CoverStory_CategoryForecast_CSN0123.indd 37
49%
Decrease
20 23
Convenience Store News
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1/9/23 1:18 PM