WAR HOARSE
“We don’t need to escalate, you see war is not the answer” WRITTEN BY JOHN, LORD TAYLOR OF WARWICK
These lyrics were written by soul legend Marvin Gaye, for his
recover after the second Gulf War and attracting the investment
classic “What’s Going On” album in 1971. Sadly, we did not heed
needed for wells and exploration is not easy when bombs and bullets
his warning.
are still an everyday hazard. The militants attack on Iraq’s biggest oil
When Tony Blair became British Prime Minister in 1997 he had
refinery in Baiji, after a seige lasting a week, shut down production
no previous ministerial experience. Yet by the time he left Downing
temporarily . In the Oil Market such instability creates higher oil
Street in 2007, he had led Britain into 5 wars. Although we “won”
prices. If Iraq further destabilises and fragments, there could be a
the 2003 Iraq war, we could lose the peace. The humanitarian
knock on effect in the Middle East. Dispersal could see the Kurdish
impact of war, in terms of deaths and injury is obvious and shocking.
in the North align with the Kurds in Syria and the Shia dominated
But what is perhaps less understood, is that War is ultimately bad
South look to Iran. The more conflict, the less oil production. In the
for business.
West we are still very dependent on Middle East oil. Whilst it is
Confidence is important for any economy. The Stock market is affected by events in the world, good or bad. Currently there are
true that new oil sources like Shale Oil are being developed, more is needed to keep up with demand.
10 major wars and 8 serious armed conflicts being waged around
Although it is not currently dominating the headlines, there is
the world. Where there is instability and warfare, that is not good
still a Civil War raging in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The
for investment and trade. I can
DRC has very rich mineral resources. In addition to copper, gold and
illustrate that by looking at 3
examples…….Iraq, Congo and the Kashmir.
diamonds it has 80% of the world’s Coltan ( columbite-tantalum)
Iraq has 65% of the world’s oil reserves. Oil is still the lifeblood of
deposits. This is a mineral which is essential for the making of mobile
the American economy. The US consumes about 30% of the world’s
phones, laptops and computer games, due to its heat conducting
oil and it is vital to sustaining the UK economy. Products which we
properties. But much of East Congo is in the hands of rebel troops.
take for granted, such as fertilisers, plastic, petrol, cosmetics, many
It is also claimed that gangs from neighbouring countries such as
clothes, CDs and even ink are all manufactured from oil. Prior to the
Rwanda, Uganda and Zimbabwe are heavily involved in the coltan
invasion of Iraq, the USA was concerned that none of the members
smuggling trade. They sell the minerals to help fund their store of
of the Arab League (a regional organisation of Arab states including
weapons. Approximately 3 million Congolese have been killed as
Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Yemen) was a
a result of the war, so far. Three mobile phone manufacturers….
true democracy. The US believed that the fall of Saddam Hussain
Motorola, Nokia and Vodafone have publically acknowleged that this
would bring democracy to the Middle East and deny radical groups
ongoing war directly affects their business.
access to oil reserves, so desperately needed by the West. How wrong they were.
A third major area of conflict is in the Kashmir. I visited Pakistan about 7 years ago as part of a UK Parliamentary delegation. We met
Since the war, new militant groups have emerged. ISIS has been
senior Pakistani parliamentarians and officials. It fell to me to raise
attacking and taking territories, especially in areas like Falluja. Iraq
the thorny issue of Kashmir and to ask why Pakistan cannot resolve
produces about 3.3million barrels of oil per day. Production did not
its ongoing dispute with neighbouring India concerning that territory.
18 | Endeavour Magazine