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Component Manufacturing dverti$er
Don’t Forget! You Saw it in the
July 2019 #11240 Page #84
Adverti$er
Lumber Briefs By Matt Layman Publisher, Layman’s Lumber Guide
Lumber & Housing Market Forecast
Layman's Lumber Guide Lumber & Housing Market FORECAST Component Manufacturer's Edition Eurowood and SYP…the Future! Matt Layman, Publisher
It’s times like the last couple of weeks in SPF-W, when buyers get taken by surprise, and they have one July, 2018 question for sellers. “How you gonna help me?” ANOTHER DIMENSION Lumber & Housing Forecast Two weeks and ago, ISYP...the warned that Future! SPF mills were about to spring surprise, imminent curtailments and Eurowood Plenty of Both closures on us. We got that and more. After Canfor’s 1-week warning of a 6-week curtailment and permanent It's times like the last couple of weeks in SPF-W, when Thevague future timeline of housingofand lumber supply willwhich be wellcould into its closure, West the question same, giving a more sometime in Q3, buyers get taken by Fraser surprise,followed and they with have one for rebirth by the end of 2019. We just saw the future of SPF. The sellers. "How you gonna' help me?" be two weeks. complementing species will be SYP. Combined U.S. lumber
Two weeks ago, I warned that SPF mills were about to spring demand of 60-65 billion board feet will be dominated by 30 surprise, imminent curtailments and closures on us. We got that billion board feet of SYP production. Eurowood can easily make and more. After week warning of “How a 6-week Now theCanfor's biggerone question hangs, you gonna help mebbft next month and next year with SPF?” The up 5-10 decline from Canada. curtailment and permanent closure, West Fraser followed with New home construction innovations and living smaller, will answer is simple. EUROWOOD! By the time Canadian mills complete their current dismantling of their the same, giving a more vague timeline of sometime in Q3, require less lumber in the very near future. If anything, the which could be two weeks. lumber industry, there will be ample wood to make up for lostglobal SPF.lumber supply is excessive and not likely to be in current Now the bigger question hangs, "How you gonna' help me short supply over the next decade. next month and next year with SPF?" The answer is simple. What does that mean for lumber prices? Unfortunately... My FORECAST is that the anticipated lumber supply disruption will never happen. The rally EUROWOOD! By the time Canadian millscurrent complete their equal or more volatility. The reason is Eurowood transit time. current dismantling of their lumberThere industry, there will be ample at hand is 95% emotion. is no shortage of any species of the lumber. $1001-2 price jackin in Specifically, ability The to buy2-week speculatively months wood to make up for lost SPF. advance. Inventory accumulations and liquidations will still western Canadian SPF is ALL speculation and panic. It isoccur. already over-bought. When this disruption is over, My FORECAST is that the current anticipated lumber supply Eurowood will make our lumber market more disruption willwill never The rally at hand is 95% emotion. SPF-W behappen. a west-of-the-Mississippi item. Eurowood will claim the abandoned and Gulf complicated for home builders andEast contractor yards.Coasts. There is no shortage of any species of lumber. The 2-week $100 Distributors and brokers will have to take more risks. Trucking housing will be a and Eurowood market by the end of 2019. priceThe jacksoutheastern in western Canadian SPFhotbed is ALL speculation panic. along the east and gulf coasts will be redefined. It is already over-bought. When this disruption is over SPF-W For now, I suggest not chasing this market out of fear. will be a west-of-the-Mississippi item. Eurowood will claim the There isEurowood, no reason to including have any lumber bought beyond the end Here is what I am gonna do for you. I will begin covering how that market works abandoned East and Gulf Coasts. The southeastern housing of July. Western Canadian SPF will fall just as quickly as is hotbed be a by thelooking end of 2019. andwill how toEurowood buy it. Imarket am indeed forward to it. rising. I expect mid July through August will give lumber prices Here is what I am gonna' do for you. I will begin covering a brutal beat down. Eurowood including how that market works and how to buy it. I Looking Forward...ML am indeed looking forward to it. Lumber Production With Builder Jobsite Delivery, Supply Side Inventory, & Lumber Market Cycle This happens regardless of disruptions!
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