THE VEHICLES
New report: over 5,000 e-buses Tesla to build Semis and now on US streets expand battery production at Electric transit buses are becoming increasingly common sights on US streets. A new report from clean transport Nevada Gigafactory consultancy CALSTART found that there are some 5,480 full-size zero-emission buses in operation in the US—an increase of 66 percent since 2021—and another 859 in Canada. The entire US fleet of full-size transit buses numbered about 72,700 in 2019. Federal incentives and—particularly in California— state programs have been a major enabler for transit agencies to phase out fossil fuel-burning buses. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which became law in November of 2021, has made historic levels of funding available. In 2022, more than $1.6 billion was allocated to 150 transit fleets throughout the US through the FTA’s Low and No Emission Grants and the Bus and Bus Facilities Grants. “The federal incentive has been a significant benefit, and will continue to be,” said Jarrett Stoltzfus, Senior Director of Government Relations and Public Policy at electric bus OEM Proterra. Stoltzfus added that battery-electric buses are proving far more popular with transit agencies than hydrogen fuel cell buses. In 2022, there were about 5,269 battery-electric buses in operation or on the way, along with 211 fuel cell buses. Hydrogen buses have the advantage of longer range, but the gap is shrinking as BEV technology continues to improve. Drawbacks of hydrogen include a lack of refueling infrastructure, and above all, costs. “The cost of a hydrogen fuel cell bus is quite a bit higher on average,” said Stoltzfus. “There’s a use case where hydrogen makes sense, but we found with the vast majority of transit customers…battery-electric is the only player.” However, Mike Hynes, Electric Bus Program Manager at CALSTART, said, “A transit agency must weigh many factors and ultimately make the choice that is right for them. It is reasonable to think that some agencies may deploy both technologies.” California remains the centerpiece of the electric bus market—there are nearly 2,000 e-buses in use by transit agencies around the state.
Tesla’s Nevada Gigafactory is quite a place—since its 2014 opening, the company has invested $6.2 billion in the region, and the 5.4-million-square-foot, 11,000-employee facility has produced some 7.3 billion battery cells, 1.5 million battery packs and 3.6 million drive units. Now Tesla has announced plans to invest an additional $3.6 billion, hire 3,000 more team members, and add two major new operations at the site: one to build 4680-format battery cells at an annual capacity of 100 GWh (enough for around 1.5 million electric vehicles); and another to build the new Tesla Semi electric Class 8 truck. Tesla originally announced that the expansion would consist of “two new factories,” but later made it clear that the plan is to build out the existing Gigafactory building to its originally-planned dimensions in order to accommodate the new cell and Semi production. According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, Tesla’s total annual battery capacity could be as much as 439 GWh by the end of the decade, nipping at the heels of China’s BYD, the world’s largest EV battery producer with some 546 GWh of forecast capacity. (Tesla has been talking much bigger numbers—500 GWh a year in Nevada and 1,000 GWh total). Tesla has been increasing production of its 4680 cells in California and in Texas, tripling production in the third quarter of last year from the previous quarter. Benchmark believes the company’s goal is to bring its cell-level cost down to $70 per kWh. It’s unclear whether Panasonic, which currently makes battery cells at Tesla’s Nevada Gig, will be involved in the next round of expansion. Meanwhile, Tesla’s earnings announcement for Q4 2022 brought the news of the company’s “best year ever on every level.” In 2022, Tesla delivered over 1.3 million cars and achieved a stellar 17% operating margin. “On a full-year basis, revenue increased over 50%, operating income doubled, free cash flows increased over 50%, and our margins remained industry-leading,” said CFO Zach Kirkhorn.
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