September 15, 1930
THE CALIFORNIA LUMBER UERCHANT
16
Looking Ahead
By Alvin T. Simonds President, Simonds Saw & Stccl Compoy The heavy dotted line numbered 8 shows the actual in- was -27 per- cent ahead of the^av--erage for the three comprevious to 198." crease in th6 volume of loanable funds. This increase fore- parable - In theperiods Ybrk World August l7t!19nry F-ord stated New (general business), production in industrial rise ttt" tll ceased bginq,sick ""itr t";&;;i"". ""a in wholesale commod-ity prices. Theie that he thought the country had "ld but activeagain' and be strongwill soon it is now well and first forecast long-time are also numbered 8. This is the people-do not that months many made know. this. To --many l9l9-19r2 Business S*ioge ;'s" ;"e i.r-tit.d_.itr". e his forecast will be of "Lookfr
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y l1"P'com,m9p$ed. I I I I I | | | | l^l I l9r castmustbeconstant- | I I I I | | | I I D*l l^A I havingmadethissjaieil"'";;k;;;trvith I | | | | | | l-st lyl ,liil | 1:11'^-B-:*:^:j-11: :'h.;:;;;'ro;:.".;;;; and with current da l. l_/l Nr]/ l l,Zl I |1..ltjl lp;::rfX,-i1".'ffni d;'-;kt-bo.i".* | l\l I'V | | itl't"9s'..s'.$:d ;,,ai..to,.ri,rrisneaf:lf^\k,(,./,*:rm the United- States I lll'l ll:1i""ffi::6bi"lJ$l p"it*"'i"rbom-e'ce I ltlv,|Z l llr"l..-ll^l I lrl I lg::t',-'-^:gr1 'rl 5; ;;-c".i 18 ir'o*.d that bituminous I lr,.Jro ,|,, | -J:.1-r1...1 li | ;f,:,."T,.JijLfiTi.,:: ot'::;i: ,,'i'X--'l-'*;T:ll.f:i. ii:g::Ir; |... f'.,'1, lu--f .l-'JtiJ l | -'l---l "1"{,-:"{l ;ffi;;;i;;: .i*inti;t iry':1i'.:::.:if, l:i l'..1., ,lr(,.1"1 l--l-'1-*t_,t" || F#ffi#.;t"Jl'i ffi"'il;;;;;':.!;{eS: :t*:f,:"1"'f"i['l"l; crash. tt'.'1""g-timefore- |
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!Iarv!yrhis shows Firestone, close riiend i,p'',r".". i'r'.-a.""gi,i ft'.f,X"J. *':1i.',T:$#.'T1","1n:"ff:#5*,T::..Ii,'I'd:":1iln M-t'Ford, says that ;:;;"';tli'-ptol.bty tors in tfieir cycrical fiuctuations. The heoay sotid tine is the votumre 3]t:1ffi",t;t;i :i present -srurrP ul the- Presew is wholesale commo-di9 rnei';"";;;;;h;;;;ttv lrgrrt dotted, line Tnri{cii';"ri;; production, ii.rr". to 'qii"*;6;;ty ."',". later issues oroduction. Federal Reserve Bulletin. The cause -slump in Th9 ligh! solid tine\s industrial stock priccs. The Annalist business will .soon be sr.*v--, bstirnated moviments ,t"* ifr"i tt,.t" has jre indicaied by breaking the lines with dots and are numbered succeeded !y greater ;;; *-L*fr"t of ttian-Amerprosperitv howevei rhis, setback. l;",1n"',1"fi:l'"11?Jffi"#"':iLn":i trJffi* 1fi::'1fftil',,:l'.fl'ff!1"if ica has known for ten i. ;;iy a minor move- comparable ontv t* aii""1ion-ana duratio.,-oi-li*a. - rr,.y t"e*J;i;i#';ril years- Notice that points low by ri.-tifffir corcyctical swings data ment. This i9"ilG are omitted. "yliiLf Minor fluctuations "fii*i-p*tr-""i Chart ^l -strg,ws the peak ..[.i"t". tt " i""t-ti-" inl932 higher than any deni i"iecasts. B o for over a month. preceding peak since the war. increasing been have p.i."r -""Jl"a Business men in general like politicians (see "PresidenOrdinarily this immediately precedes improving busines5tial Prosperity" Harper's' August' 1930)' are willing to in-circu.'.tti.""] and rising stock prices. Th. "-ount of make optimistic statements q's to business but are unwilling lation has increased; indicating better trade and higher to give warning of coming depression' either directly or prices. Business is not much b-etter but it is some beiter. The more than usual seasonal increase in electric power lil:l'.":tlJ,ill'35Lt*i",o$T"':"".n1!li'"it;;':"':r'liil?; production for the week ending August 9.is very significant' the time of depression. Optimistii state'ments from t6ose irving Fisher's Weekly Indexbf CommodityPrices-reached who never make statement3 of any other kind are severely its tJw on July 19 and has increased slightly each of.the discounted. We believe, howevdr, that statements from four weeks-since. This is also evidence that the cyclical Mr. Ford and Mr. Firestone will not be subject to such low point in business has been passed.- Automobile pro- discount. Business sentiment is much more cheerful, as it has rea' ducti,on from its low point at the end of July has risen an son to be. Fear, always greatest at_the extreme low point during decline the total to equal than July. amount more cycle' is givin-g way- to confidence' Business will gt 9, as Augusi week ending $g the auiing Business activity move up slowly from now on' Do not expect doubtless .measured by bank debiti outside New Yoik Ci[, show_e6 too much' That is rvhat caused the crash last fall' Barring Unan increase of 16 per cent over the preceding week. unfortunate political disturbances this fall' the December filled steel orders of the United States Steel Corporation at low will be simply a seasonat one and not as low as that the end of July increased gl,l63tons, the first increase since of July' March and the first July increase since 1927. The New york rimes weekly i.d.* of Business Activity showed .,1[:::,t"r:'*:Ti:':1 lliil;:;ii'ls*trTi';"1tf.'iln:; gain for the week ending August -9, the_ first gain since the the volume of general business or business activity. This last week in M"y. The American Machinist declares, fact must not 6e overlooked in applying forecasti in any "Dawn seems to be about to break after a long night in the particular case. Some industries turn, inlheir major movemachinery and machine tool markets." Stone, Webster & ments. earlier than industrial production, some at about the Blodgett, Inc., say, "The total capital (in the form of bonds, same time and some tater. A careful study of the chart is prefeired and common stocks) raised during the first half recommended. It shorvs the seven major swings since l9l9 of ttre current year for the further development of this coun- and forecasts the developing major swing in the volume try exceeded that during the comparable period of. l9D and of industrial production. Tuly and have
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