Monitor ISSUE 29
Iran moves in as Russian influence declines in South Caucasus As Russia's financial, economic and military resources dwindle due to its war in Ukraine, its leverage in the South Caucasus is also declining, Sevinj Mahdavi and Gayane Aleksanyan report
Russia’s focus elsewhere has encouraged Armenia, its traditional ally, to look for friends in the West, while Azerbaijan, Armenia’s foe, is disregarding Moscow's interests in the region.
It has pledged support to Armenia, held a large-scale military exercise on the border with Azerbaijan and Armenia, and intensified its anti-Azerbaijan rhetoric.
The other main regional player, Turkey, has strong positions in Georgia, and especially Azerbaijan, so Iran has a golden opportunity to bring Armenia into its orbit. Tehran's recent attempts to influence Baku’s policies – in particular Azerbaijan's military cooperation with Israel – have increased longstanding tensions between the two countries.
Iran wants to prevent Turkey and other countries from making inroads into the South Caucasus
Iran senses a golden opportunity
FATEMEH BAHRAMI/ANADOLU AGENCY VIA GETTY IMAGES
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At this point, Iran has moved in – perhaps in coordination with Russia – in a bid to prevent forces from outside the region from filling the emerging gap.
Tehran has on several occasions warned outside players not to make inroads into the South Caucasus.
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