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Strategic Vision vol. 12, no. 55 (April, 2023)
Of Food and Men In case of war, Western sanctions must target China’s key strategic weaknesses Guermantes Lailari
photo: Sunrisezihan
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College freshmen take part in mandatory military training at a university in the People’s Republic of China.
any experts have written about the Taiwan Strait flashpoint, especially comparing it to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Most of the analysis is based on standard military comparisons of the two countries’ military order of battle—weapon systems and numbers of soldiers. However, in the words of General Omar Bradley, “Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.” One such professional is Dr. Edward Luttwak, a strategy consultant to the US government. On December 7, 2022, Dr. Luttwak gave the keynote speech at Japan’s National Institute of Defense Studies (NIDS) International Symposium on Security Affairs called “Can China Fight a War?” Most news outlets
did not cover the NIDS conference, and almost none mentioned his speech. This was a missed opportunity to highlight some of the most important strategic weaknesses of the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—weaknesses that should be ferociously pursued to defend against a military operation against Taiwan. The following article outlines Dr. Luttwak’s presentation as delivered in that keynote. There is ample precedent showing that leaders of countries are capable of starting wars that, in Luttwak’s words, “they cannot possibly win.” The 2003 war in Iraq launched by US President George W. Bush, for example, and more recently Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. The view
Guermantes Lailari is a visiting scholar at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University and National Defense University. He is a retired US Air Force Foreign Area Officer specializing in strategy, counterterrorism, irregular warfare, and missile defense. He can be reached for comment at glailari2023@gmail.com