Michael Steinrueck In recent months the “local transition initiative” has generated a lot of interest in Spring Valley, NY. On Friday, April 24, it hosted a well attended focus evening. This summary of the introductory presentation was published in The Listener.
Climate Change, Peak Oil, Recession
Flying in an airplane over the typical American suburb, you receive an interesting impression. Everyone has claimed a private kingdom, as big as his or her resources allow, and rules there as an autonomous monarch. Looking a bit more closely, you see that a breathtaking arsenal of material goods has been accumulated to make this lifestyle possible and comfortable, keeping anything that threatens it at bay. This way of life seems to function, and may even initially seem desirable, but as we look closer yet, we see that it is beset by some significant problems. For instance, it consumes resources at a rate that would necessitate four to six Earths if every person around the globe lived like this. It also may not make us nearly as happy as we thought it might. It is hard to imagine that it doesn’t contribute in some degree to the isolation, loneliness, fear, depression, and anxiety that are so prevalent today. Considering the entire picture, we can see that this way of life is simply not sustainable in the long-term. Its use of energy, its impact on the environment, and the current state of the economy are all saying that it will need to change.
Fossil Fuel Consumption and Peak Oil This way of life is fundamentally oil-based. Most of the products we use, including much of our food, were produced using large amounts of oil—be it in the production of plastics, in the pesticides and fertilizers used by modern agriculture, in the energy used to create and transport goods, or in many other ways. In addition, we consume large amounts of fossil fuels to provide heat and light, run appliances, and fuel the transport of goods and people to and from their homes. We know that fossil fuels are finite resources that will simply be used up at some point. While that point may still lie somewhat in the future, evidence clearly points to the fact that demand for fossil fuels is on the verge of overtaking supply. In other words, especially as the populations of China and India begin to aspire to lifestyles similar to our own, it is not possible to produce enough oil to fuel them all. At some point in the very near future, fuel prices will skyrocket as the battle for increasingly limited resources intensifies. This shift, called “peak oil,” is well known to experts in the field. Four-dollars-per-gallon gas a year ago was certainly an initial effect of peak oil. Through the current economic downturn, the effect has receded for the moment as demand has temporarily dropped. To be realistic, we need to expect gas prices to go far beyond that in the near future, making the way we live now essentially unfeasible. Experts also agree that alternative sources of energy can never come close to replacing the amount of oil we consume now. Peak oil is telling us: it’s time for fundamental change.
Crisis or Opportunity? Hungry Hollow Road, Chestnut Ridge, NY Spring-Summer 2009
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