• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Rennes Ville Vivrière Scenarios of Food autonomy for Rennes Metropole (France)
Catherine Darrot Venice, 25th of May 2012
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Rennes Metropole
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants
Frame of this work
• Prolongements
Rennes Metropole = Rennes (city) + 37 communes Urbanism : a green belt preserved around the city
An exercice for 2 promotions of Master students
«Sustainable agriculture and territorial development»
2 years x 3 weeks x 16 students = 480 days x person = 22 month x 1 person
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants
Eating locally ? A prospective for Rennes 2020
• Prolongements
Could everybody be fed ? (space, quantities…)
Would local (agro-industrial) jobs be destroyed ?
Who would want it ?
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants
Phases of this work
• Prolongements
Year 1 : 2010-2011
Aims
- defining prospective scenarios for 2020 - Food model, farming model - Areas necessary to feed Rennes Metropole - Point of view of the population
Year 2 : 2011-2012
Aims
- Defining a logistic and markteing model for those scenarios - Impact of each scenarios on jobs - Point of views and habits of the population
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Two scenarios where elaborated for this research
Food regime Farm Production Food waste
Area considered Marketing
Tendencial "Virtuous" scenario scenario Actual (2150 Moderated (1900 calories/inhabitants calories/inhabitants) Organic 30 % of the groth 20 % of the groth food ressources food ressources wasted wasted Farms + % of public and Farms private gardens, forests, flat roofs… local local
Production and food close to the reality, but everything produced and consummed locally
Designed to maximise RM’s food autonomy
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Actual situation, according to regional statistical data
Net % of the weight of Weight of food Nb of needs of Actual situation of the local production the food consumed inhabitants Rennes produced (kg/an/habitant) fed Metropole (kg) covered Cereals Vegetal fats Vegetables Potatoes Fruits Meat Eggs Dairy
18986833,3
88,0
215666
51 %
288265,4
5,5
51958
12 %
14393270,9
49,3
291888
69 %
3345395,9
21,3
157208
37 %
826213,5 26 843 491
58,5 44
14112 614 268
3% 146 %
4 386 695
6
786 146
187 %
68 236 917
89
764 936
182 %
Scenario of autonomy : 100 %
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
We adopted 8 steps in the calculation For each scenario
Calculation Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5
Step 6 Step 7
Step 8
Content of the step Defining the average energetic needs in kcal/inhabitant Dividing those caloric needs between the main categories of food Precising the calories/gramme of each category of food, of which at least 51 g of proteins/inhabitant Deducting the weight of each type of aliment needed (in g/inhabitant) Precising the regional yields for each crops, and on the content of the ration for each type of animal breeded (then connected to the yield of each fodder needed) Deducting the area needed to feed each inhabitant (in ha/inhabitant) on the basis of the steps 4 and 5 Deducting the whole area needed (in ha) to feed the whole population of Rennes Metropole (depending on the food and production scenarion) Comparing this area with the available area (depending on the food and production scenarion)
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Step 1 and 2 : Defining the average energetic need in kcal/inhabitant
Proportion in the population of RM (%)
Average energetic needs (kcal)
Children
18.5 %
1750
Women
41.3 %
2000
Men
40.2 %
2450
Average for RM
2135 kcal/inhab.
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Step 2 : Dividing those caloric needs between the main categories of food Total of the calories consummed/day
Tendencial scenario Virtuous scenario 2 150 kcal Number 1 900 kcal Number of subof subtypes for types for Caloric Caloric each each contribution contribution aliment aliment 8 8 5,91 % 17,35 % Vegetables 3 3 8,93 % 8,93 % Vegetable fats 5 4 14,58 % 14,58 % Fruits 39,21 % 37,00 % Cereals 5 7 19,80 % 10,56 % Meat 1 2 10,11 % 8,00 % Dairy 1 1 1,47 % 3,58 % Eggs
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Step 2 : Dividing those caloric needs between the main categories of food (details) Famille d’aliment
Constituants de la famille d’aliment Légumes feuillus et à tiges : asperge, céleri, poireaux, laitue, épinards, choux… Légumes fleurs : artichauts, choux fleur, brocolis Légumes fruits : concombre, courgette, tomate, aubergine, potiron, poivron
Légumes
Légumes racines : carotte, radis, navet, salsifis, betterave, céleri rave Légumes graines : petit pois, haricot sec, haricot vert, maïs doux Légumes bulbes : ail, échalote, oignon Légumes secs : haricot sec, lentille, petit pois Légumes tubercules : pomme de terre Fruits à noyau : abricot, cerise, pêche, prune, olives Fruits à pépins : pomme à cidre, pomme de table, poire
Fruits
Fruits à coque : amande, châtaigne, noix, noisette Baies : kiwi, cassis et myrtille, framboise, groseille Agrumes : citrons, clémentine, orange, pamplemousse
Céréales
Blé dur, blé tendre, avoine, seigle Ovins : agneaux Bovins : bœufs, veaux, vache de réforme, cheval et autres
Viandes
Porcs : porc, produits tripiers Lapins : lapin, gibier Volailles : poulet de chair, poule de réforme
Œufs Produits laitiers Graisse végétale
Œufs Lait Yaourt, fromage blanc, beurre Fromage : fromage de chèvre (50 %), fromage de vache (50 %) Crème dessert et lait gélifié Huile de Colza : 99 % Huile de tournesol :
1%
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants
Calories and weight of food needed
• Prolongements
Step 3 : precising the calories/g, including at least 51
g/day of proteins/inhabitants
Step 4 : Deducting the weight of each type of aliment
needed (in g/inhabitant) Including the losses/waste 30 % in the tendential scenario 20 % in the vertuous scenario
Famille d'aliments Légumes total : Légume feuillus et à tiges Légume fleurs Légume fruit légume racine légume graine légume bulbe légume sec légume tubercule (pdt) Graisse végétale : Huile de Colza Huile de Tournesol Fruits : Fruits à noyau Fruits à pépins Fruits à coque Baies Céréale Viandes autres Ovins (100% herbe) Porcs Lapins Volailles de chair Poules de réforme Viandes bovines Bœufs bio (100% herbe) Vache de réforme Œufs Produits laitiers Chèvre 100 % herbe Vache laitière 100% herbe
NRJ quot. (kcal/j/p)
Quant. Quot.(kg/j/p)
Teneur protéine (g/p/j)
Quant. An sans perte (kg/an)
Perte = 20 %
Quant. An avec perte (kg/an)
32,97 19,78 39,57 52,75 36,27 16,49 59,35 72,54
0,21 0,10 0,16 0,21 0,06 0,06 0,06 0,09
3,65 2,79 1,29 2,74 1,95 0,57 4,53 1,34
40582508 19500900 31811450 40907168 10816799 11020250 10926060 17360295
8116502 3900180 6362290 8181434 2163360 2204050 2185212 3472059
48699010 23401080 38173740 49088602 12980159 13224300 13111272 20832354
167,926 1,696
0,02 0,00
0,00 0,00
3661783 36988
732357 7398
4394140 44385
69,27 69,27 83,12 55,42 703
0,107 0,140 0,017 0,138 0,211
1,02 0,46 1,70 1,62 0,00
20659214 27221749 3235780 26690164 40949570
4131843 5444350 647156 5338033 8189914
24791056 32666099 3882937 32028197 49139485
19,00 76 19 68,4 7,6
0,008 0,036 0,010 0,026 0,003
1,84 7,92 2,84 6,71 0,75
1574038 6982460 1898581 4994234 554915
314808 1396492 379716 998847 110983
1888845 8378952 2278298 5993081 665898
7,36 3,20 68,02
0,004 0,002 0,047
0,98 0,43 5,82
856487 372731 9031526
171297 74546 1806305
1027785 447277 10837831
15,2
0,023
0,80
4533228
906646
5439874
136,8
0,180
5,76
34893927
6978785
41872712
Steps 3 and 4 : Example of calculation for the scenario of autonomy
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants
Step 5 : Precising the regional yields for each crops, and the content of the ration for each type of animal breeded
• Prolongements
in organic farming Proportion dans la rotation RdmtYield bio actuel (kg/ha) Rdmt(kg/ha) bio(kg/ha) Famille d'aliments Actual Expected Légumes total : 0,10 14200 15620,00 Légume feuillus et à tiges 0,06 9833 10816,30 Légume fleurs 0,12 25000 27500,00 Légume fruit 0,16 26667 29333,70 légume racine 0,11 7000 7700,00 légume graine 0,05 14333 15766,30 légume bulbe 0,18 1000 1100,00 légume sec 0,22 20000 22000,00 légume tubercule (pdt) Graisse végétale : 0,99 666,7 733,37 Huile de Colza 0,01 833,3 916,67 Huile de Tournesol Fruits : 0,25 5740 6314,00 Fruits à noyau 0,25 15166,5 16683,15 Fruits à pépins 0,3 1016,5 1118,15 Fruits à coque 0,2 4562,5 5018,75 Baies 3902 4292,20 Céréale Viandes autres 0,10 129,77 Ovins (100% herbe) 0,40 3072,64 Porcs 0,10 2203,66 Lapins 0,36 5385,58 Volailles de chair 0,04 Poules de réforme Viandes bovines 173,8036376 Bœufs bio (100% herbe) Vache de réforme 4096,008361 Œufs 0 Produits laitiers 0,10 2158,051929 Chèvre 100 % herbe 0,90 4216,032252 Vache laitière 100% herbe
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market
Animal fodders : details of calculation of the areas needed
• Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Fodder needed / type of animals (depending on the scenario : organic production or not) Average regional yields of crops (depending on the scenario : organic production or not)
Animal products Pigs
Tendencial scenario Area needed to % of the calories feed those consummed animals (ha) 9,16%
Beef cow Beef (male)
22961,89
4,00%
2726,95
93408,28
0
0
0,39%
5913,48
5,88%
Milking cow Lamb Chicken Hens Rabbits Dairy (cow) Dairy (goat)
Scenario of autonomy % of the Area needed to calories feed those consummed animals (ha)
0,17% 0,73% 3,85% 0,18% 10,11%
13073,06
1,00%
14555,23
5148,05
3,60%
1112,80
0,40% 522,33
1,00%
1033,87
14774,02
7,20%
9931,78
0,80%
2520,73
Eggs
1,47%
4008,15
3,58%
2645,95
Total
31,38%
15 3896
22,14%
40 440
• Introduction • 2 scenarios
Step 6 : Food needs x area needed for each product = ha/inhabitant needed Comments :
• Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs
• Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Strong impact of meat production and
consumption (more cattle = more land)
Impact of the variability of the crops yields
depending on the scenarios (organic production or not)
Cq : The area needed/inhabitant varies for each
scenario
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Step 7 : Deducting the whole area needed (in ha) to feed the whole population of Rennes Metropole Different for the two scenarios
Propsective research, based on the hypothesis of evolution of food and production models
Fixed data
Inhabitants in 2010 Increase/year)
420 000 11 111
Entry
Number of inhabitants in
2020
531 110 Source des Métropole
données
fixes:
Rennes
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants
In scenario of autonomy, which use of the urban greenways for food production ?
• Prolongements
Type of food
Public parcs and areas
Private gardens
Flat roofs
Forest
Cereals Fodder production Cereals Oil and proteic seeds Pastures and meadows
Yes
Yes
Vegetal fats Vegetables
Yes
Yes
Yes
Fruits
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Ara Riversides, bble roadsides, protected land areas Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Abstract of the virtuous scenario elaborated for Rennes Metropole in this study
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants
Area available
• Prolongements
Tendancial scenario
Scenario of autonomy
Productive areas
% used in the scénario
Total area available
34881
100%
Farm land
0
0%
442
15%
Private/public gardens
0
0%
Natural areas
0
0%
Flat roofs
(41 660 ha)
% used in the scénario
(34 881 ha)
Forest (1 113 ha)
(2 919 ha)
(2 399 ha)
(348 ha)
Productive areas
100%
34881
30%
334
40%
1177
46%
1091
60%
209
Source Cyril Bigot, 2012
+ 6,7 % = + 2400 ha environ = 5 x area needed for the potatos consummed !!
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Results
Which food autonomy for Rennes
Metropole ?
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants
Two scenarios : areas needed
• Prolongements
Food
Vegetables Vegetal fats Fruits Cereals Meat Dairy Eggs Total area needed to feed RM's population 2020 Area necessary/inhabitant
Tendential scenario area (ha) Proportion of the area necessary (%) 3% 5 967 2% 4 682 7% 13 048 6% 10 762 72 % 135 113 8% 14 774 2% 4 008 188 356 ha 0,35 ha/inhabitant
Virtuous scenario area (ha) Proportion of the area necessary (%) 24 % 23 733 6% 6 040 16 % 15 738 12 % 11 449 26 % 25 342 13 % 12 452 3% 2 645 97 402 ha 0,18 ha/inhabitant
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants
% of food autonomy of RM
• Prolongements
Tendencial scenario
Virtuous scenario
Area needed to feed RM’s population
188 356 ha
97 402 ha
Area of urban greenways available in the scenario
35 322 ha
37 691 ha
% of food autonomy of RM allowed by the scenario
19 %
39 %
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Total areas needed for Rennes Metropole’s autonomy ?
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Logistic and market Adapting the scenarios to the territory
- Processing - Marketing
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants
Processing
• Prolongements
Sub-areas of Rennes metropole : autonomy for food
processing
Defining a typology of territories : rural, dens rural,
peri-urban and dense city
Consequence : more resilience in each territory,
limitation of food streams
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Food need / commune for each scenario
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Defining 3 sub-areas of autonomy
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Infrastructures for food processing Number of structures for food processing
Initial quantities
• Vegetables
• Based on the actual local average size
• Fats • Cereals • Meat and animal products • Diairy
Arbitrary % of food processing
• < 50 workers • < 10 km far from each farm
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Result for the scenario of autonomy
A partir des volumes transformés et de la taille des unités de production, le nombre d’unité par zone a été défini.
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants
Marketing
• Prolongements
Hypothesis : shopping close to your home must be possible without a car (hypothesis of energy crisis)
Step 1 : chosing the distance = 8 km
Step 2 : defining 11 zones in the metropole
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants
Marketing
• Prolongements
Step 3 : mapping the population in 2020
Rennes : high density urban zone
Peri-urban medium density
Rural areas with low population
Step 4 : creating a typology of consumption zones
Intermediary zone in rural areas
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Adapting the market offer to the demand : example
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Impact on jobs Production Processing Marketing
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market
Jobs calculated in the autonomy territory in and around Rennes
11 851 jobs
• Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Production
Processing
Marketing
4 422
848
6 581
Tendancial scenario
Scenario of autonomy
Vegetables production
3 996
Polyproduction (animals + crops)
2 816
1 167
Total
6 812
1167
Of which on farm processing
12 981 jobs
5 002
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Point of views of inhabitants Gardening urban greenways ? Changing the food model ? Attitude in case of a crisis ?
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model
Gardening urban greenways ?
• Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Base
150 interviews in the street Indicative results
50 % of the persons approving
food production in urban greenways would like to be personnally involved Access to land as a limiting factor ! Social importance of food production and gardening !!!
Issue of education ++
Possible innovations By professionnals Through networks of gardeners
Are you ready to see food gardens appear in the urban parks and greenways ?
How garderners learnt
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
Changing the food model ? 145 persons in 2012
Variable answers For or against the reduction of animal products consumption in Northern countries ? Understanding personnaly the meaning of such an evolution / measure Imposing the limitation of animal products consumption or educating toward it ? * CCP : Circuits Courts de Proximité
All agree « Urban food products are polluted »
« Quality is more important than quantity»
« OK to reduce animal products in food if a public policy imposes it for a common interest»
• Introduction • 2 scenarios • Areas needed, food model • Logistic, market • Impact on jobs • Point of view of inhabitants • Prolongements
In case of a crisis (energy, economy) !!! 145 persons 2012
Variable answers
« I would limitate meat to preserve the quality and quantity of my food» (public in farmers shops) « I would buy less expansive things and food, I would work more, I would waste less» (public of super and hyper-markets)
All agree
1) Having a food garden !
2) reducing the length of the food chain (finding producers…)
3) reducing non-food consumptions to ensure the food needs
Thank you for your attention