Adaptation to climate change in Vietnam
Dr. Dave A. D‘haeze Belo Horizonte, September 11th 2013
Climate Change Predictions
Vietnam •
Temperature increase:
+0.8 - 2.7°C by 2060 and +1.4 - 4.2°C by 2090
•
Rainfall increase:
+33% by 2090 in Aug., Sep. & Oct.
•
Extreme rainfall events increase:
+2 to 14% by 2090 from May to Oct.
•
Rainfall decrease in the dry season:
- 62% in February, March and April
•
Annual river flows:
increase in the North; decrease in the South
Central Highlands •
Days above 25°C increase:
79 in the base year 94 in 2020, 134 in 2050 and 230 in 2100
•
Evapotranspiration increase:
+8.5% (1,726mm) between 2040 and 2059; +14.47% (1,821mm) between 2080 and 2099
•
Groundwater level decrease:
after 2020 due to overexploitation and the decrease in groundwater recharge
2
Land Suitability Predictions - Current
Land Suitability Predictions - 2020
Land Suitability Predictions - 2050 Optimum producing zone will increase by 2050 to altitude 600 -1000m asl (currently 300 - 900m asl)
Vulnerability of Coffee Production
•
Rising temperatures and higer maximum temperatures Flower abortion Higher evapotranspiration rate and irrigation demand
•
Irregular and heavy and intermittent rains Several poor flowerings and poor fruit set Increased erosion Rainfall during harvesting, difficult coffee drying, lower coffee quality
•
Irregular dry periods Drought stress required Not too long
•
Falling ground water levels
Adaptation Priorities Identified
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(no regret) measures (short-term) Ground cover More efficient irrigation Zero-tillage
•
Experiment with (mid-term) Drip irrigation Crop diversification and shade trees Application of Hydro-polymers
Centralized drying
•
Collect more data (long-term) Metereological Groundwater levels Pests (cicadas)
Water Footprint – Case Study
.
Ha Noi
•
Irrigation is critical to make coffee farming an economically viable livelihood activity
Son La
Dak Lak province : 40% national coffee production Excessive irrigation Irrigation costs 15-20% of the total production costs (labor, energy & equipment)
Quang Tri
57% of irrigation water is groundwater; 95% for coffee Current irrigation is exploiting up to 71% of the total water resources
Gia Lai Dak Lak
Lam Dong
.
Ho Chi Minh
Water Management – Case Study
•
Irrigation application 1,400 liter / tree / round
400
462
300 200 100 -
132 40 Average yield Irrigation (mm/ha)
400 liter / tree / round 67
Optimized yield Production (60 kg bag/ha)
Water Management – Case Study
•
Water Footprint
Global average: 21,000 liter/kg Vietnam: circa 5,500 liter/kg
6.000
liter/kg
5.000 4.000
1.150 404
3.000 2.000
3.970
690 283
2.382
1.000 Average yield Green WFP
Blue WFP
Optimized yield Grey WFP
Water Management – Case Study
1 Cup of Coffee Vietnam: 46 liter of water
Potential: 32 liter of water Global: 130 liter of water
Potential water saving: 30 %
Feel free to Visit Vietnam dave.dhaeze@ede-consulting.com www.coffeeandclimate.org