Saturday, Nov 09, 2019
Volume 28 Number 44
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BC Homes Sales Carry Momentum into 2020 BCREA 2019 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast Vancouver, BC: November 6, 2019. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2019 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today. Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 1.8 per cent to about 77,100 units this year, after recording 78,505 residential sales in 2018. MLS® residen-
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tial sales are forecast to increase 10.9 per cent to 85,500 units in 2020, just below the 10-year average for MLS® residential sales of 85,800 units. “After a slow start to 2019, MLS® home sales in BC have embarked on a sustained upward trend since the spring,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist. “The dampening effects of federal mortgage rules mean that rather than a return to the heights of recent years, home sales are simply returning to trend after sustaining a significant shock.” As demand normalizes, the accumulation of resale inventory has reversed course in many markets around BC. We anticipate that this trend will continue in
2020, with sales and listings finding balance. For most markets, this will mean price growth that is in-line with inflation, though for some supplyconstrained areas we are forecasting strong
price growth. We anticipate that the MLS® average price will decline 2 per cent in 2019 before rising modestly by 3.6 per cent to $723,000 in 2020.
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B.C. housing market to stabilize in 2020, accelerate in 2021: federal report That’s according to a new housing market outlook by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), which forecasts housing starts, sales and prices in B.C. will begin to stabilize next year, before accelerating in 2021. The agency says favorable economic and demographic conditions in the province will drive new housing starts, which it says will be “relatively strong growth ‌ when compared to other regions.â€? After close to 41,000 starts in 2018, CMHC is estimating a low of 39,300 and a high of 42,300 starts this year. Next year could see a low of 40,700 starts and a high of 44,700, followed by a low of 41,900 in 2021 and a high
of 46,900. As far as sales go, CMHC projects that B.C. will also see
stronger growth compared to other parts of Canada, “consistent with growth in real dispos-
able income that is forecast to exceed the national average over this time period.�
According to the agency, sales across B.C. dropped from over 103,000 in 2017 to about 78,000 in 2018, with an anticipated dip in 2019 to between 62,000 and about 69,000. But in 2020, CMHC is projecting between 74,600 and 84,400 home sales, climbing to between 79,800 and 90,800 in 2021. Along with an uptick in sales, CMHC is forecasting prices will begin to climb again next year. “British Columbia will see modest recovery in price growth in 2020 from a decline in 2019, but rise to the second-highest rate of price growth after Ontario in 2021,� states the report. Despite an anticipated hike in prices, the agency says con-
cerns around overvaluation in the region have lessened, as growth in market fundamentals over the same period could be enough to support the uptick in sales and prices. The CMHC’s forecast projects a benchmark B.C. price range of $656,600 to $723,400 for 2019, climbing to $675,100 to $749,500 in 2020, and $718,400 to $801,600. The agency projects five-year mortgage rates to climb from about 5.2 per cent this year to 5.6 per cent by 2021. It says risks remain for the market, including global trade tensions and high household debt which could be vulnerable to interest rate hikes. GLOBAL NEWS
How to save for a down payment for a home in Vancouver
When Krystal Yee finished college and entered the workforce, she set a goal much like many other graduates: find a way to save enough to buy a home. Yee, who lives in Vancouver, said her career in marketing and as a personal finance blogger were only landing her an average of $44,000 a year. The benchmark price for a detached property in Vancouver was $901,680 at the time and apartments were going for about $405,200. Yee didn’t let the conditions intimidate her. She crafted a plan and in 2011, at the age of 28, nabbed a one-bedroom townhouse about 25 minutes from
Vancouver’s downtown core in New Westminster. The first step Yee took was working out how much she would need to save for a down payment. She used listings and the local real estate board to learn about average home prices and then turned to a series of online calculators to help her calculate how much cash to stash. The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada says the minimum amount you’ll need to save for a down payment if you plan to spend $500,000 or less on a home is five per cent of the purchase price. If the home you want to buy costs between $500,000 and $1 million, the agency says to
save five per cent of the first $500,000 of the purchase price and 10 per cent for the portion above $500,000. If you intend on shelling out more than $1 million on a home, use 20 per cent as your ballpark savings rate, the agency recommends. It also warns that if you’re self-employed or have a poor credit history, you may be required to provide a larger down payment. Before you even consider buying a home, Yee says it’s important to manage your debt. When she was thinking of purchasing a place, she had $20,000 in debt, so she started living even more frugally and taking on gigs whenever she
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could.“I did that through working two full-time jobs and a bunch of part-time jobs and really made that my focus,� she said. Some of the work was unglamorous, she admits, and only paid between $8 and $10 an hour, but it added up and within a year, she was debt free. Looking for freelance work and selling odds and ends online helped her too. Savers may also be lucky enough to receive help from family members, who sometimes have the means to chip in or lend interest-free money, which can help to save even quicker. “I personally didn’t get any help with my down payment, but if
my parents had offered, I probably wouldn’t have said no, but I also don’t think that it should be expected,� she said. Yee used a method that she calls “building your budget backwards� to start saving for her down payment. She worked out that she wanted to buy a home within three to five years and divided up the cost of her ideal home to calculate what she thought she could save every month. Then she subtracted the monthly rate from her budget before calculating how much she’d spend on rent, bills, groceries and other things. Some people, she said, might do this calculation and realize
they don’t have enough to live on. If that happens to you, she said you must decide whether to save at a slower rate, look at more affordable homes or in areas like suburbs where prices can be lower, or find ways to increase your earnings. “Some months I made that goal and some months I didn’t,� she admitted. Yee recommends anyone looking at saving for their first down payment take advantage of the home buyer’s plan, which allows you to withdraw up to $35,000 from your registered retirement savings plan to buy or build a home and gives you 15 years to repay the amount ctv vancouver you took out.
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The rate at which presale condos and townhomes are being snapped up has plummeted across Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley – especially in downtown Vancouver, according to a July 18 report by a real estate marketing company. MLA Advisory, the research arm of marketing firm MLA Canada, said in its mid-year report that the absorption rate of newly released presale units in June 2018 across the Lower Mainland was just 50 per cent, compared with 94 per cent in January this year. The monthly absorption rate is the proportion of units that are both released and sold within that month. Overall, from January to June inclusive, 74 per cent of the 7,753 presale unit released in the Lower Mainland were sold. However, the pace of sales is slowing, with 79 per cent sales in 2018’s first quarter, and 69 per cent in Q2. MLA said the more modest pace of sales was good news for homebuyers and the industry. “The current pre-sale landscape is shifting from its once unsustainable, hyperactive growth to a balanced, more normal market,” said Suzana Goncalves, chief advisory officer and partner at MLA Canada. “This is good news for everyone to ensure more modest and realistic price growth, more choice for consumers and the need for higher quality product from the industry. The economic fundamentals including low interest rates, steady employment landscape, and continued demand to move to our sought-after city will allow for a steady shift into a balanced market.” Local market divergence Some local markets bucked the region’s overall trend, however. Burnaby North, which is seeing unprecedented levels of residential development at Brentwood and Lougheed, had a January-thru-June sold rate of 91 per cent, out of nearly 1,600 new homes released. Most of these units were concrete condos in Brentwood, according to MLA. MLA’s report said that West Coquitlam and North Surrey also saw strong presale activity, “proving that demand remains high for transit-oriented communities.” The City of Vancouver, on the other hand, is seeing presales of 61 per cent in East Vancouver projects, 54 per cent for new condo developments
on the West Side, and just 34 per cent downtown, according to MLA research. MLA’s report said, “Vancouver proper is seeing a decline in pre-sale absorption as price levels have reached a significant threshold. Some potential buyers in Vancouver are seeking more affordable options with a perceived higher [appreciation].” The lowest absorption rate was seen in Port Coqutilam, at just 19 per cent of units sold between January and June. Richmond’s rate was also low at 39 per cent. Investors selling assignments The anticipation of slower sales and potentially lower prices could be encouraging some pre-sale buyers to sell their sales contracts, known as assignments. A look at listing services Craigslist, Kijiji and Vancouvernewcondos.ca on July 18 found 587 presale condos being offered from West Vancouver and Squamish to Surrey and Langley by both real estate agents and private owners. The February 20 increase in the B.C. foreign-home buyer tax from 15 per cent to 20 per cent could also be a factor in slower pre-sales. Since 2016, the share of new condominiums sold to foreign buyers reached 16 per cent across Metro Vancouver and accounts for about one-quarter of buyers in Richmond and Coquitlam, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. Looking to the second half of 2018, MLA is expecting to see 67 project launches with more than 7,700 new homes – around the same amount as in the first six months of the year. North Vancouver is forecast to be the most active market in the Lower Mainland, with nearly 1,500 new presale homes expected to be released.
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How to Quick-Prep Your Home for Sale Ideally, you should plan to have plenty of time to prepare your home for sale. You want to be able to get everything fixed and cleaned up, and perhaps even make a few improvements, such as installing a new countertop in the kitchen.
For any number of reasons, that’s not always possible. If you have to suddenly relocate for work, for example, you may have only days to make your home “show ready” for the market. What should you do? The answer is: the essentials. First, arrange to get any maintenance issues dealt with immediately. If you have a clogged shower drain or cracked windowpane, call a professional repair person. Even if those items don’t get fixed by listing day, you can inform buyers that the repairs are scheduled - and that receipts proving that the work was done professionally will be available. Next, you need to do a thorough clean-up. Staging experts (those who professionally prepare homes for sale) unanimously agree that making each room look neat and tidy is
essential. Even something as seemingly minor as dust accumulation on blinds can impact buyers. If you still have time available before the For Sale sign goes up, consider doing some redecorating. Stand in each room and ask yourself, “How can I make this room look more spacious and appealing?” Oftentimes, simply rearranging the furniture and moving a few items into storage will make a dramatic difference. Yes, prepping your home on a tight schedule takes some work. However, in just two or three days, you’ll have a property that is more attractive to prospective buyers. It will show better, and, as a result, it will likely sell faster. Décor Colour Choices Can Be Psychological
Although choosing a room’s colour is highly personal, it’s worth noting that studies have linked specific colour tones to psychological behaviours. In fact, many doctors, scientists and design experts believe that certain
colours can actually influence your mood or motivation. The following list provides a general interpretation of commonly held views about how we perceive colour. It may help you decide on the colours you’ll use in your next interior painting or decorating project. While some suggested connections may seem obvious, others might surprise you. White: cleanliness, purity, innocence. Yellow: concentration, attentiveness, optimism. Orange: abundance, expressiveness, passion. Red: emotion, creativity, appetite. Purple: status, opulence, indulgence. Blue: trust, confidence, productivity. Green: tranquility, comfort, nourishment. Brown: honesty, sincerity, simplicity. Black: contemplation, dedication, commitment. Of course, subtle differences in hues and shades can evoke different emotional responses. As a result, complementary colours can sometimes seem to conflict with the expected psychological response to your primary selection. So, despite all the available scientific information, you should consider your instincts as well.
home for sale, you need a contractor that gets your job done on time, on budget and without creating a big mess. To help make sure that happens, ask prospective contractors these questions: “Will I be issued a receipt detailing the work done?” This is handy to have as you might want to show it to buyers. “Do you thoroughly clean up the work area each day?” This is especially important if your home will be shown to buyers during this period. “Is the project schedule realistic? Is there a chance the work might take longer than expected?” Delays can negatively impact the sale of your home. It’s better to get a realistic timeline from the contractor, rather than an ambitious one. “Under what circumstances will the final price be higher than quoted?” Of course, you also need to check references and do other due diligence to ensure the contractor is a “good apple”.
Choosing a “Seller-Friendly” Contractor Although there are many terrific contractors out there, there are always a few bad apples. When preparing your
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